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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate TMay’s chances of getting the Brexit deal agreed

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Would staying in the EU be humiliating? 47% Yes. 24% No.

    How about: Would leaving the EU but still being ruled over by the EU, being stopped from doing trade deals with other countries and having Northern Ireland be annexed be humiliating? :D

    No, as it ends free movement and still leaves the EU which is all most of them cared about, only obsessives cared about trade deals and most have little interest in Northern Ireland other than avoiding a return to the troubles which No Deal could cause
    The report from TM visit today was that the farmers, industry, and the political parties back it, only the DUP against and that includes being against their core supporters
    The Backstop is great for NI. Full CU and SM access with no fees. In addition they are all entitled to Irish passports so can enjoy all the EU benefits of free movement.

    That unfortunate provine comes out of the dunghill of Brexit smelling of roses.
  • The Daily Mail really are dishonest aren't they?

    We gave respondents three hypothetical referendum choices (the draft agreement vs no deal; the draft agreement vs remaining; the draft deal against no deal or remaining) and in each the draft agreement was less popular than the other option.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Mortimer said:

    The fundamental puzzling question is this: how could the PM, her advisors, her Whips, have read this so wrong? Going down by 10 votes is one thing. But at what point did sombody say "PM, you haven't a hope in hell of getting this through the Commons..."? Because from where I'm sat, it looked a mighty uphill battle the morning after the General Election. When your majority is dependant on the DUP, ploughing on regardless with a negotiating position that would obviously provoke their classic "NOOOO!!!!" was just, well....unfathomable.

    Indeed. I’m staggered the cabinet didn’t twig that this doesn’t look like it will get through....
    Of course they realise it. If they didn't at first they know now. What of it? It must be voted on and they backed their horse, it's too late to jump off now (they;ll disavow it afterwards).
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33
    Extremely dodgy editorialising from the Mail there. They are clearly panicking.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,150
    edited November 2018

    Those are *incredibly* leading questions, and Survation was acting unprofessionally and in direct contravention of BPC polling guidelines when it agreed to those precise questions and that precise sequencing.

    IMHO Survation should be ashamed of that sort of transparently manipulative push-polling. It should apologise, withdraw the poll, and promise to do better in the future.

    Also, I think the fact that the Mail is even trying to get this kind of unprofessional and substandard polling commissioned suggests the Mail are panicking because they've realised they've backed a lame one.

    You really don't like the results, do you?
    Well, no. Fortunately it seems they aren't the results.

    The Mail story is an almost complete fabrication.

    https://www.survation.com/public-surveyed-on-the-draft-government-withdrawal-agreement/
    That link isn't to the same poll as the Mail story (which was polling done yesterday)....

    image

  • Panic over, Survation isn't acting unprofessionally, the Mail is simply lying.

    https://www.survation.com/public-surveyed-on-the-draft-government-withdrawal-agreement/

    Normality is resumed.

    That refers to fieldwork on 15 November, surely the poll isn't that old.

    I suspect a decent swing since then in line with other e.g. YouGov polling
    A total of 1,030 adults took part in the online poll yesterday afternoon.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6435545/British-people-Mays-Brexit-deal-exclusive-poll-finds.html
    I think Survation haven't put the number on their website yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202


    Panic over, Survation isn't acting unprofessionally, the Mail is simply lying.

    https://www.survation.com/public-surveyed-on-the-draft-government-withdrawal-agreement/

    Normality is resumed.

    That refers to fieldwork on 15 November, surely the poll isn't that old.

    I suspect a decent swing since then in line with other e.g. YouGov polling
    That is NOT this poll but a poll almost a fortnight old
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Big boost for May

    Voters say MPs should vote for the Brexit Deal by 41% to 38%

    Voters think the Deal is the best on offer by a huge 52% to 19% margin

    Voters think staying in the EU would be humiliating by a large 47% to 24% margin

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1067543861134848000?s=20
    Push poll
    Go on - admit you do not like the findings !!!!
    I'd like it to be true. I'm still sure it is push polling (or rather, the Mail pushing a line from thin data). If people actually thought like that our MPs would not be increasing their opposition, they'd have decreased it. They've mostly not even given themselves wiggle room to change position should yet more polls come out which say, for the sake of argument, 80% people think this is the best deal since sliced bread. Either they were prepared to take no heed of public opinion as it is just that bad a deal, or it is a bad deal and they also could see which way the public were going.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Would staying in the EU be humiliating? 47% Yes. 24% No.

    How about: Would leaving the EU but still being ruled over by the EU, being stopped from doing trade deals with other countries and having Northern Ireland be annexed be humiliating? :D

    No, as it ends free movement and still leaves the EU which is all most of them cared about, only obsessives cared about trade deals and most have little interest in Northern Ireland other than avoiding a return to the troubles which No Deal could cause
    The report from TM visit today was that the farmers, industry, and the political parties back it, only the DUP against and that includes being against their core supporters
    If the DUP were to alienate their core supporters, and disappear into a Bible bothering, Catholic-baiting, homophobic irrelevance, then some good will have come out of this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    The Daily Mail really are dishonest aren't they?

    We gave respondents three hypothetical referendum choices (the draft agreement vs no deal; the draft agreement vs remaining; the draft deal against no deal or remaining) and in each the draft agreement was less popular than the other option.

    That is NOT this poll but the old Survation poll
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    HYUFD said:
    Swivel eyed loons flock together!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    It's certainly not the first time the Mail has lied completely and totally out of its sordid little arse, and it won't be the last.

    But what's funny is that they're reduced to doing this for an utterly doomed deal being backed by a PM with 11 days left in the job, against the clear wishes of its own readership.

    From either a business or political standpoint, the Mail's position makes no sense. I can only conclude they're aware of this and desperate.
  • Those are *incredibly* leading questions, and Survation was acting unprofessionally and in direct contravention of BPC polling guidelines when it agreed to those precise questions and that precise sequencing.

    IMHO Survation should be ashamed of that sort of transparently manipulative push-polling. It should apologise, withdraw the poll, and promise to do better in the future.

    Also, I think the fact that the Mail is even trying to get this kind of unprofessional and substandard polling commissioned suggests the Mail are panicking because they've realised they've backed a lame one.

    We quite often agree but to be honest trying to trash the first poll published which actually is very good for TM is maybe a little bit, even tiny bit, biased !!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this new Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
  • It's certainly not the first time the Mail has lied completely and totally out of its sordid little arse, and it won't be the last.

    But what's funny is that they're reduced to doing this for an utterly doomed deal being backed by a PM with 11 days left in the job, against the clear wishes of its own readership.

    From either a business or political standpoint, the Mail's position makes no sense. I can only conclude they're aware of this and desperate.

    stand out idea here grabcocque, let's wait for Survation to ppublish the tables, on, you know, the poll the Mail is actually reporting.

    We know the Mail has an agenda, and some of the questions like the betrayal one clearly have an answer in mind BUT the questions Remain/Deal and Deal/No Deal should be comparable.

  • TonyTony Posts: 159

    The Daily Mail really are dishonest aren't they?

    We gave respondents three hypothetical referendum choices (the draft agreement vs no deal; the draft agreement vs remaining; the draft deal against no deal or remaining) and in each the draft agreement was less popular than the other option.

    You really have to just laugh at the transparency of the push polling.

    What kind of a question is this.

    'This is the best deal for UK and MPs should back it because it is time to get on with Brexit’
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Those are *incredibly* leading questions, and Survation was acting unprofessionally and in direct contravention of BPC polling guidelines when it agreed to those precise questions and that precise sequencing.

    IMHO Survation should be ashamed of that sort of transparently manipulative push-polling. It should apologise, withdraw the poll, and promise to do better in the future.

    Also, I think the fact that the Mail is even trying to get this kind of unprofessional and substandard polling commissioned suggests the Mail are panicking because they've realised they've backed a lame one.

    We quite often agree but to be honest trying to trash the first poll published which actually is very good for TM is maybe a little bit, even tiny bit, biased !!
    Big G, take a look at the link to the actual poll.

    The Mail's story is a total fabrication, I'm afraid. But I am glad it allowed to you feel alive, even if only for a second.
  • Those are *incredibly* leading questions, and Survation was acting unprofessionally and in direct contravention of BPC polling guidelines when it agreed to those precise questions and that precise sequencing.

    IMHO Survation should be ashamed of that sort of transparently manipulative push-polling. It should apologise, withdraw the poll, and promise to do better in the future.

    Also, I think the fact that the Mail is even trying to get this kind of unprofessional and substandard polling commissioned suggests the Mail are panicking because they've realised they've backed a lame one.

    You really don't like the results, do you?
    Well, no. Fortunately it seems they aren't the results.

    The Mail story is an almost complete fabrication.

    https://www.survation.com/public-surveyed-on-the-draft-government-withdrawal-agreement/
    That's an old poll - the numbers don't match the ones in the Mail report and the Mail report results not in that poll.

    The earliest we are likely to see Survation's report is tomorrow morning.
  • Those are *incredibly* leading questions, and Survation was acting unprofessionally and in direct contravention of BPC polling guidelines when it agreed to those precise questions and that precise sequencing.

    IMHO Survation should be ashamed of that sort of transparently manipulative push-polling. It should apologise, withdraw the poll, and promise to do better in the future.

    Also, I think the fact that the Mail is even trying to get this kind of unprofessional and substandard polling commissioned suggests the Mail are panicking because they've realised they've backed a lame one.

    We quite often agree but to be honest trying to trash the first poll published which actually is very good for TM is maybe a little bit, even tiny bit, biased !!
    Big G, take a look at the link to the actual poll.

    The Mail's story is a total fabrication, I'm afraid. But I am glad it allowed to you feel alive, even if only for a second.
    You are making a right tit of yourself aren't you....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2018

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.


    Got a mirror dear? You arse has something to tell you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Keep up the faith HYUFD.

    I don't see how that helps get a deal through when near a hundred Tory MPs will vote against, opposed on terms too significant to u-turn even if the public swing behind it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    MikeL said:

    Worth noting that this polling turnaround has happened pretty quickly and in spite of the overwhelming criticism of the deal.

    There is still two weeks until the vote - it's entirely possible that momentum may build up which will increase public support further.

    However that in no way means that MPs will vote for the deal. But if there is clear public support then very strong pressure will come to bear on MPs in any subsequent vote.

    Twice as many oppose the deal than support it according to the poll. Practically everyone would prefer to either stay in the EU or leave without a deal I am confused where the Mail gets its figures from.
  • Roger said:

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone who has the boot put in by Trump can't be all bad. There seems to be a lot of public sympathy and support for May. Not that it'll help her get her plan through. Anyway a second referendum followed by calling the whole thing off now has to be favourite.

    If there is a referendum Remain will win it quite easily. Brexiteers are admitting remaining is better than some options, some some leavers will switch to remain and most remainers won't have changed side.
    Very interesting vox pops in Wales. Even small numbers rather like focus groups can be quite informative. There seems to be a sense that 1. They were sold a pup and 2. They were embarrassed that they'd bought it.
    You are not seeing the ones we are seeing here in Wales then
    Not by May but the original Leave campaign. I've seen two now . are the ones on welsh TV different?
    We have regional programmes in Wales as well as the national ones and so far the general support for TM has been good
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Maybe voters love May's deal so much they simply are too excited to tell anyone, and so the Mail is forced to fabricate their true opinion as some kind of valuable public service?

    The New Daily Mail: fabricating your shitty opinions so you don't have to.
  • JayW said:

    Extremely dodgy editorialising from the Mail there. They are clearly panicking.

    You mean you are not happy about a survation poll
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited November 2018
    Oh Sweet Jesus, those Survation figures are awful for May. The Daily Mail have simply lied about the results. Click the link and read the actual data yourself.

    Remember we are now two weeks into the sales period for the deal with two weeks to go to the vote. It's half time and those figures are dreadful. If May is to use public opinion to grow beat MPs it needs to by Evan overwhelming national consensus to back the deal. It's not there.

    EDIT: Retraction. The link Martin provides is from the 15th. So the initial response. We need to wait for tables for this poll.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Those are *incredibly* leading questions, and Survation was acting unprofessionally and in direct contravention of BPC polling guidelines when it agreed to those precise questions and that precise sequencing.

    IMHO Survation should be ashamed of that sort of transparently manipulative push-polling. It should apologise, withdraw the poll, and promise to do better in the future.

    Also, I think the fact that the Mail is even trying to get this kind of unprofessional and substandard polling commissioned suggests the Mail are panicking because they've realised they've backed a lame one.

    You really don't like the results, do you?
    Well, no. Fortunately it seems they aren't the results.

    The Mail story is an almost complete fabrication.

    https://www.survation.com/public-surveyed-on-the-draft-government-withdrawal-agreement/
    That link isn't to the same poll as the Mail story (which was polling done yesterday)....

    image
    Who'd have thought the Mail would be caught out telling porkies?
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33
    HYUFD said:

    The Daily Mail really are dishonest aren't they?

    We gave respondents three hypothetical referendum choices (the draft agreement vs no deal; the draft agreement vs remaining; the draft deal against no deal or remaining) and in each the draft agreement was less popular than the other option.

    That is NOT this poll but the old Survation poll
    No - as Carlotta pointed out earlier, the reality is buried deeper in the Mail's own article -
    'Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40.'

    So the deal loses against each of its alternatives in a 1 to 1 battle. Also the polling showed people supportive of a second referendum by 48 to 34 against.

    SLIGHTLY different than the headlines.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Maybe voters love May's deal so much they simply are too excited to tell anyone, and so the Mail is forced to fabricate their true opinion as some kind of valuable public service?

    Why are you still pushing this when it's already been pointed out multiple times you've linked to the wrong poll?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,150
    edited November 2018

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.


    Got a mirror dear? You arse has something to tell you.
    Grabcocque....

    image
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    FF43 said:

    MikeL said:

    Worth noting that this polling turnaround has happened pretty quickly and in spite of the overwhelming criticism of the deal.

    There is still two weeks until the vote - it's entirely possible that momentum may build up which will increase public support further.

    However that in no way means that MPs will vote for the deal. But if there is clear public support then very strong pressure will come to bear on MPs in any subsequent vote.

    Twice as many oppose the deal than support it according to the poll. Practically everyone would prefer to either stay in the EU or leave without a deal I am confused where the Mail gets its figures from.
    From the DM article :

    "Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40."

    Strong backing for a #peoples vote too., which is probably why Theresa is campaigning with the people who will vote in it, rather than the MPs.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,150
    edited November 2018
    Roger said:

    Those are *incredibly* leading questions, and Survation was acting unprofessionally and in direct contravention of BPC polling guidelines when it agreed to those precise questions and that precise sequencing.

    IMHO Survation should be ashamed of that sort of transparently manipulative push-polling. It should apologise, withdraw the poll, and promise to do better in the future.

    Also, I think the fact that the Mail is even trying to get this kind of unprofessional and substandard polling commissioned suggests the Mail are panicking because they've realised they've backed a lame one.

    You really don't like the results, do you?
    Well, no. Fortunately it seems they aren't the results.

    The Mail story is an almost complete fabrication.

    https://www.survation.com/public-surveyed-on-the-draft-government-withdrawal-agreement/
    That link isn't to the same poll as the Mail story (which was polling done yesterday)....

    image
    Who'd have thought the Mail would be caught out telling porkies?
    Erhhhh accept they aren't, at least not in the way grabcocque is trying to say.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    JayW said:

    Extremely dodgy editorialising from the Mail there. They are clearly panicking.

    You mean you are not happy about a survation poll
    No, I'm not happy about the Mail fabricating a poll, and this place (of all places) not calling them out on it.

    Deliberately misrepresenting polling data is a cardinal sin on PB and I don't think any of us would want to be party to it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this new Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Agreed and especially with todays reports in Wales and Northern Ireland indicating public backing for TM
  • Survation have NOT published their tables yet.

    The link published downthread is an old poll.

    FYI - OGH has banned posters that post incorrect polling figures or besmirch the integrity of pollsters.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    edited November 2018
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Big boost for May

    Voters say MPs should vote for the Brexit Deal by 41% to 38%

    Voters think the Deal is the best on offer by a huge 52% to 19% margin

    Voters think staying in the EU would be humiliating by a large 47% to 24% margin

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1067543861134848000?s=20
    Push poll
    Go on - admit you do not like the findings !!!!
    I'd like it to be true. I'm still sure it is push polling (or rather, the Mail pushing a line from thin data). If people actually thought like that our MPs would not be increasing their opposition, they'd have decreased it. They've mostly not even given themselves wiggle room to change position should yet more polls come out which say, for the sake of argument, 80% people think this is the best deal since sliced bread. Either they were prepared to take no heed of public opinion as it is just that bad a deal, or it is a bad deal and they also could see which way the public were going.
    Voters say MPs should vote for the Brexit Deal by 41% to 38% - well that's close.

    Voters think the Deal is the best on offer by 52% to 19% margin. That's because it's the only deal on offer.

    Voters think staying in the EU would be humiliating by a large 47% to 24% margin. I'm surprised it's not a greater margin. Of course it will be humiliating to stay in the EU. I would have agreed with that.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    MikeL said:

    Worth noting that this polling turnaround has happened pretty quickly and in spite of the overwhelming criticism of the deal.

    There is still two weeks until the vote - it's entirely possible that momentum may build up which will increase public support further.

    However that in no way means that MPs will vote for the deal. But if there is clear public support then very strong pressure will come to bear on MPs in any subsequent vote.

    Twice as many oppose the deal than support it according to the poll. Practically everyone would prefer to either stay in the EU or leave without a deal I am confused where the Mail gets its figures from.
    From the DM article :

    "Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40."

    Strong backing for a #peoples vote too., which is probably why Theresa is campaigning with the people who will vote in it, rather than the MPs.

    Can we not drop the line people's vote, especially with the damn hashtag. It makes my skin crawl !
    Let's call it what it is, a second referendum, we're not a pro remain campaign group here.

    Just a small rant :)
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    If the Mail does have a proper poll, it will be very interesting to check the sequencing and wording of the questions to see if it's in line with the BPC's guidelines on leading questions.

    There is a very, very slight possibility there's been a sudden jump in public support for the deal coming after several days of very loud, public ridicule.

    But Occam's Razor suggests it's probably just made-up Daily Mail bullshit.
  • Those are *incredibly* leading questions, and Survation was acting unprofessionally and in direct contravention of BPC polling guidelines when it agreed to those precise questions and that precise sequencing.

    IMHO Survation should be ashamed of that sort of transparently manipulative push-polling. It should apologise, withdraw the poll, and promise to do better in the future.

    Also, I think the fact that the Mail is even trying to get this kind of unprofessional and substandard polling commissioned suggests the Mail are panicking because they've realised they've backed a lame one.

    We quite often agree but to be honest trying to trash the first poll published which actually is very good for TM is maybe a little bit, even tiny bit, biased !!
    Big G, take a look at the link to the actual poll.

    The Mail's story is a total fabrication, I'm afraid. But I am glad it allowed to you feel alive, even if only for a second.
    Now dont get unpleasant
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Quincel said:

    The fundamental puzzling question is this: how could the PM, her advisors, her Whips, have read this so wrong? Going down by 10 votes is one thing. But at what point did sombody say "PM, you haven't a hope in hell of getting this through the Commons..."? Because from where I'm sat, it looked a mighty uphill battle the morning after the General Election. When your majority is dependant on the DUP, ploughing on regardless with a negotiating position that would obviously provoke their classic "NOOOO!!!!" was just, well....unfathomable.

    None of us sit in the meetings she has with close advisers, but from the outside looking in I've thought for a while that her strategy is to take her premiership day by day, doing whatever it takes to avoid or delay crunch points. And I must say, that's gotten her much further than most people expected.
    Prime Minister, meet Crunchy McCrunch-Point........
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    MikeL said:

    Worth noting that this polling turnaround has happened pretty quickly and in spite of the overwhelming criticism of the deal.

    There is still two weeks until the vote - it's entirely possible that momentum may build up which will increase public support further.

    However that in no way means that MPs will vote for the deal. But if there is clear public support then very strong pressure will come to bear on MPs in any subsequent vote.

    Twice as many oppose the deal than support it according to the poll. Practically everyone would prefer to either stay in the EU or leave without a deal I am confused where the Mail gets its figures from.
    From the DM article :

    "Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40."

    Strong backing for a #peoples vote too., which is probably why Theresa is campaigning with the people who will vote in it, rather than the MPs.

    Can we not drop the line people's vote, especially with the damn hashtag. It makes my skin crawl !
    Let's call it what it is, a second referendum, we're not a pro remain campaign group here.

    Just a small rant :)
    Agree. It was damned poor branding.
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33
    edited November 2018
    As for 'Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and the prospect of a Labour government, voters favoured the Prime Minister by 46 per cent to 31 per cent' surely this must be bullshirt of the highest order, given that Survation typically show a Labour VI of about 40%.

    So it is asking us to believe that approx a quarter of people who actually want to vote Labour prefer May's deal to a Labour government (a stupid apples-and-oranges equation anyway) or have no opinion.

    It's obviously a total charade of a nonsense push poll whose dodgy results are then being further misrepresented by the Mail in their headlines (though the truth can be found deeper in the articles, I'm guessing they realise their readers probably get about two lines in.)
  • To be honest from the numbers shown in the article, I don't think the public have any idea what they really want. When presented as binary options, all are close and contradictory if you follow through the logic.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this new Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Agreed and especially with todays reports in Wales and Northern Ireland indicating public backing for TM
    Desperate stuff.

    Thought better of you Big G
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    JayW said:

    As for 'Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and the prospect of a Labour government, voters favoured the Prime Minister by 46 per cent to 31 per cent' surely this must be bullshirt of the highest order, given that Survation typically show a Labour VI of about 40%.

    So it is asking us to believe that approx a quarter of people who actually want to vote Labour prefer May's deal to a Labour government (a stupid apples-and-oranges equation anyway).

    It's obviously a total charade of a nonsense push poll whose dodgy results are then being further misrepresented by the Mail in their headlines (though the truth can be found deeper in the articles, I'm guessing they realise their readers peobably get about two lines in.)

    I would say that is about right, most voters now back the Deal over the alternatives and do not want a snap general election and a Corbyn Premiership
  • HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this new Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Agreed and especially with todays reports in Wales and Northern Ireland indicating public backing for TM
    Desperate stuff.

    Thought better of you Big G
    Not really - I hope posters accept that I do try to be honest and fair
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    MikeL said:

    Worth noting that this polling turnaround has happened pretty quickly and in spite of the overwhelming criticism of the deal.

    There is still two weeks until the vote - it's entirely possible that momentum may build up which will increase public support further.

    However that in no way means that MPs will vote for the deal. But if there is clear public support then very strong pressure will come to bear on MPs in any subsequent vote.

    Twice as many oppose the deal than support it according to the poll. Practically everyone would prefer to either stay in the EU or leave without a deal I am confused where the Mail gets its figures from.
    From the DM article :

    "Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40."

    Strong backing for a #peoples vote too., which is probably why Theresa is campaigning with the people who will vote in it, rather than the MPs.

    Can we not drop the line people's vote, especially with the damn hashtag. It makes my skin crawl !
    Let's call it what it is, a second referendum, we're not a pro remain campaign group here.

    Just a small rant :)
    Agree. It was damned poor branding.
    To go from a fringe idea to the centre of political debate and hundreds of thousands marching on Parliament shows pretty effective branding by the #peoplesvote IMO.
  • JayW said:

    Extremely dodgy editorialising from the Mail there. They are clearly panicking.

    You mean you are not happy about a survation poll
    No, I'm not happy about the Mail fabricating a poll, and this place (of all places) not calling them out on it.

    Deliberately misrepresenting polling data is a cardinal sin on PB and I don't think any of us would want to be party to it.
    They haven't "fabricated a poll"

    You linked to an old poll.

    The only one fabricating anything is you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this new Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Agreed and especially with todays reports in Wales and Northern Ireland indicating public backing for TM
    Yes the average voter is coming round
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:

    JayW said:

    As for 'Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and the prospect of a Labour government, voters favoured the Prime Minister by 46 per cent to 31 per cent' surely this must be bullshirt of the highest order, given that Survation typically show a Labour VI of about 40%.

    So it is asking us to believe that approx a quarter of people who actually want to vote Labour prefer May's deal to a Labour government (a stupid apples-and-oranges equation anyway).

    It's obviously a total charade of a nonsense push poll whose dodgy results are then being further misrepresented by the Mail in their headlines (though the truth can be found deeper in the articles, I'm guessing they realise their readers peobably get about two lines in.)

    I would say that is about right, most voters now back the Deal over the alternatives and do not want a snap general election and a Corbyn Premiership
    It's "about right" that voters just happen to believe exactly what you believe?

    Wow, that's amazing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    MikeL said:

    Worth noting that this polling turnaround has happened pretty quickly and in spite of the overwhelming criticism of the deal.

    There is still two weeks until the vote - it's entirely possible that momentum may build up which will increase public support further.

    However that in no way means that MPs will vote for the deal. But if there is clear public support then very strong pressure will come to bear on MPs in any subsequent vote.

    Twice as many oppose the deal than support it according to the poll. Practically everyone would prefer to either stay in the EU or leave without a deal I am confused where the Mail gets its figures from.
    From the DM article :

    "Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40."

    Strong backing for a #peoples vote too., which is probably why Theresa is campaigning with the people who will vote in it, rather than the MPs.

    Can we not drop the line people's vote, especially with the damn hashtag. It makes my skin crawl !
    Let's call it what it is, a second referendum, we're not a pro remain campaign group here.

    Just a small rant :)
    Agree. It was damned poor branding.
    It's effective branding, it's just dishonest since they want the people to make the right choice not merely give the people a say, and it insults the previous vote. Those that care about honesty should support a second referendum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this new Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Agreed and especially with todays reports in Wales and Northern Ireland indicating public backing for TM
    Desperate stuff.

    Thought better of you Big G
    He's an optimist.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690
    HYUFD said:

    JayW said:

    As for 'Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and the prospect of a Labour government, voters favoured the Prime Minister by 46 per cent to 31 per cent' surely this must be bullshirt of the highest order, given that Survation typically show a Labour VI of about 40%.

    So it is asking us to believe that approx a quarter of people who actually want to vote Labour prefer May's deal to a Labour government (a stupid apples-and-oranges equation anyway).

    It's obviously a total charade of a nonsense push poll whose dodgy results are then being further misrepresented by the Mail in their headlines (though the truth can be found deeper in the articles, I'm guessing they realise their readers peobably get about two lines in.)

    I would say that is about right, most voters now back the Deal over the alternatives and do not want a snap general election and a Corbyn Premiership
    No they don't turn to page 2
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Keep up the faith HYUFD.

    I don't see how that helps get a deal through when near a hundred Tory MPs will vote against, opposed on terms too significant to u-turn even if the public swing behind it.
    It may convince enough on a second vote though after an initial protest and also win over some Labour waverers. At the end of the day MPs employers are the voters and if they want the Deal over the alternatives that will be the result
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this new Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Agreed and especially with todays reports in Wales and Northern Ireland indicating public backing for TM
    Desperate stuff.

    Thought better of you Big G
    Not really - I hope posters accept that I do try to be honest and fair
    TBH, no. I think of you as a May cheerleader. Neither honest nor fair, but determined to portray everything that happens in the best personal light for May.

    Not that there's nothing wrong with that. Nobody says you have to be honest and fair.

    But... You do get weirdly touchy when people mock you for your wilfully blind May apologism.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this new Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Agreed and especially with todays reports in Wales and Northern Ireland indicating public backing for TM
    Yes the average voter is coming round
    Unless those average voters get a #peoplesvote, what does it matter?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    MikeL said:

    Worth noting that this polling turnaround has happened pretty quickly and in spite of the overwhelming criticism of the deal.

    There is still two weeks until the vote - it's entirely possible that momentum may build up which will increase public support further.

    However that in no way means that MPs will vote for the deal. But if there is clear public support then very strong pressure will come to bear on MPs in any subsequent vote.

    Twice as many oppose the deal than support it according to the poll. Practically everyone would prefer to either stay in the EU or leave without a deal I am confused where the Mail gets its figures from.
    From the DM article :

    "Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40."

    Strong backing for a #peoples vote too., which is probably why Theresa is campaigning with the people who will vote in it, rather than the MPs.

    Can we not drop the line people's vote, especially with the damn hashtag. It makes my skin crawl !
    Let's call it what it is, a second referendum, we're not a pro remain campaign group here.

    Just a small rant :)
    Agree. It was damned poor branding.
    Actually it is ok as branding, but the first vote was also as much a people's vote as this one. Just I find it far too cheery for a 'May deal/Remain' that I might have to vote for that'll be about as pleasent as seeing the Doctor about bleeding piles
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Keep up the faith HYUFD.

    I don't see how that helps get a deal through when near a hundred Tory MPs will vote against, opposed on terms too significant to u-turn even if the public swing behind it.
    It may convince enough on a second vote though after an initial protest and also win over some Labour waverers. At the end of the day MPs employers are the voters and if they want the Deal over the alternatives that will be the result
    But, of course, May will never be allowed a second vote, so it hardly matters.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited November 2018
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    MikeL said:

    Worth noting that this polling turnaround has happened pretty quickly and in spite of the overwhelming criticism of the deal.

    There is still two weeks until the vote - it's entirely possible that momentum may build up which will increase public support further.

    However that in no way means that MPs will vote for the deal. But if there is clear public support then very strong pressure will come to bear on MPs in any subsequent vote.

    Twice as many oppose the deal than support it according to the poll. Practically everyone would prefer to either stay in the EU or leave without a deal I am confused where the Mail gets its figures from.
    From the DM article :

    "Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40."

    Strong backing for a #peoples vote too., which is probably why Theresa is campaigning with the people who will vote in it, rather than the MPs.

    Can we not drop the line people's vote, especially with the damn hashtag. It makes my skin crawl !
    Let's call it what it is, a second referendum, we're not a pro remain campaign group here.

    Just a small rant :)
    Agree. It was damned poor branding.
    To go from a fringe idea to the centre of political debate and hundreds of thousands marching on Parliament shows pretty effective branding by the #peoplesvote IMO.
    The hashtag made it clear to me that it would never fly.

    It's far too niche, and clever, for its own good. It's the Remain campaigning having learned no lessons....
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    JayW said:

    As for 'Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and the prospect of a Labour government, voters favoured the Prime Minister by 46 per cent to 31 per cent' surely this must be bullshirt of the highest order, given that Survation typically show a Labour VI of about 40%.

    So it is asking us to believe that approx a quarter of people who actually want to vote Labour prefer May's deal to a Labour government (a stupid apples-and-oranges equation anyway).

    It's obviously a total charade of a nonsense push poll whose dodgy results are then being further misrepresented by the Mail in their headlines (though the truth can be found deeper in the articles, I'm guessing they realise their readers peobably get about two lines in.)

    I would say that is about right, most voters now back the Deal over the alternatives and do not want a snap general election and a Corbyn Premiership
    No - if you read past the utterly misleading headlines the Mail article itself LITERALLY says that the public prefer EVERY alternative the deal is pitted against, including no deal. And support a second referendum. It's cobblers.
  • Apart from the Mail there's not much Brexit on the front pages - tho the Grauniad photographer got a great shot of May:

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1067544328946487296
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    Well said that man.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    MikeL said:

    Worth noting that this polling turnaround has happened pretty quickly and in spite of the overwhelming criticism of the deal.

    There is still two weeks until the vote - it's entirely possible that momentum may build up which will increase public support further.

    However that in no way means that MPs will vote for the deal. But if there is clear public support then very strong pressure will come to bear on MPs in any subsequent vote.

    Twice as many oppose the deal than support it according to the poll. Practically everyone would prefer to either stay in the EU or leave without a deal I am confused where the Mail gets its figures from.
    From the DM article :

    "Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40."

    Strong backing for a #peoples vote too., which is probably why Theresa is campaigning with the people who will vote in it, rather than the MPs.

    Can we not drop the line people's vote, especially with the damn hashtag. It makes my skin crawl !
    Let's call it what it is, a second referendum, we're not a pro remain campaign group here.

    Just a small rant :)
    Agree. It was damned poor branding.
    It's effective branding, it's just dishonest since they want the people to make the right choice not merely give the people a say, and it insults the previous vote. Those that care about honesty should support a second referendum.
    I find it cringeworthy. But I agree about honesty. A second referendum, and a vote to Remain,(which is my personal pet unicorn), necessarily implies the possibility of a third. Which, in the interests of consistency, would be an entirely legitimate thing to campaign for.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    Absolutely deluded.

  • Apart from the Mail there's not much Brexit on the front pages - tho the Grauniad photographer got a great shot of May:

    twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1067544328946487296

    More totally bonkers ideas from Labour. However, I am sure they will be popular.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Foxy said:


    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.

    More likely is both Brexitism and Remainism will be exposed, and then we'll really be up shytte creek.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    JayW said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Daily Mail really are dishonest aren't they?

    We gave respondents three hypothetical referendum choices (the draft agreement vs no deal; the draft agreement vs remaining; the draft deal against no deal or remaining) and in each the draft agreement was less popular than the other option.

    That is NOT this poll but the old Survation poll
    No - as Carlotta pointed out earlier, the reality is buried deeper in the Mail's own article -
    'Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40.'

    So the deal loses against each of its alternatives in a 1 to 1 battle. Also the polling showed people supportive of a second referendum by 48 to 34 against.

    SLIGHTLY different than the headlines.
    Though even on that questioning Ashcroft's poll had voters backing the Deal over No Deal 34% to 27%.


    Notice Remain beats No Deal by 10% in the Survation poll but Remain only beats May's Deal by 9% too so May's Deal remains the best prospect of preserving Brexit and avoiding a Remain vote in an EUref2
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    "A teenage thug who tried to smash his way into a car with a large zombie knife walked free from court today on the condition he stays at home at night with his mother for the next nine months.

    Joshua Gardner, 18, produced the fearsome weapon from his trousers when the car pulled out in front of him and almost knocked him from his bike."

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/teen-filmed-trying-to-smash-his-way-into-car-with-zombie-knife-walks-free-a4001831.html
  • rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    Yep. "The Deal" is the least worst outcome. Unless you want a recession or a resurgent Far Right.
  • what are the modelled % differences in gdp per capita?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    Remain leads by only 10% even against No Deal on this poll, did losing by 10% in 2014 shut Scottish nationalism up? No and a 10% win for Remain having lost the first vote would not shut up Brexiteers either
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited November 2018

    Apart from the Mail there's not much Brexit on the front pages - tho the Grauniad photographer got a great shot of May:

    twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1067544328946487296

    More totally bonkers ideas from Labour. However, I am sure they will be popular.
    Not so sure.

    This is just the sort of clever-dick policy the hard left think floats people's boats. It doesn't.

    People want fair prices and safe jobs. Not faffing about with consumers restraining pay.

    Politics of envy doesn't play well; when will the left learn?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    Sorry, but it is not in the interests of the country that the charlatans and fools who got us here get to save face.

    We are not heading for a No Deal/Remain referendum. No Deal will never be put on a ballot paper by parliament. The withdrawal agreement is what it is, and should be put against Remain in a public vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    But remainers and no dealers don't think like
    That. They believe all will be will if they win and nothing will change their minds.

    As you say it's no deal or remain. If this deal were only closely rejected may be they'd have been a chance the public could back it- such as she had a plan I think this was Mays plan - but it's just not viable for mps.

    We are totally screwed whatever happens.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Survation have NOT published their tables yet.

    The link published downthread is an old poll.

    FYI - OGH has banned posters that post incorrect polling figures or besmirch the integrity of pollsters.

    Are we safe tipping a bucket of shit over the Daily Mail though? :D
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    Nope. Politics is already poisoned. The only way out is for a #peoplesvote and for Remain to win. Everyone will breathe a sigh of relief except for a small minority of headbangers who have always been headbangers and will continue to be, no matter what. Most people really don't care as long as it's sorted without damage. Problem solved. Next.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Keep up the faith HYUFD.

    I don't see how that helps get a deal through when near a hundred Tory MPs will vote against, opposed on terms too significant to u-turn even if the public swing behind it.
    It may convince enough on a second vote though after an initial protest and also win over some Labour waverers. At the end of the day MPs employers are the voters and if they want the Deal over the alternatives that will be the result
    But, of course, May will never be allowed a second vote, so it hardly matters.
    She will, over 200 Tory MPs out of 318 back May and her Deal
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    GIN1138 said:


    Are we safe tipping a bucket of shit over the Daily Mail though? :D

    It is every man's solemn duty to besmirch the Daily Mail, thoroughly and often.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    Nope. Politics is already poisoned. The only way out is for a #peoplesvote and for Remain to win. Everyone will breathe a sigh of relief except for a small minority of headbangers who have always been headbangers and will continue to be, no matter what. Most people really don't care as long as it's sorted without damage. Problem solved. Next.
    @Barnesian, out of interest, do you know many people who voted Leave?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    I agree. Cameron is ultimately to blame for the mess for calling a referendum in the first place, and running such a negative campaign. I kept waiting for the positive PPB which would have pictures of Rome, Paris, Berlin, etc, but it never appeared.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    That is all very well, and logically argued, as ever.
    However, politics HAS already been poisoned for a generation. Might as well go for your preferred end state.
    The idea we should support this deal to "come together as a Nation" is not a great one. Cos we won't.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No. This is a just a repackaging of May's exhortation that the nation has come together for the good of the tory party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Keep up the faith HYUFD.

    I don't see how that helps get a deal through when near a hundred Tory MPs will vote against, opposed on terms too significant to u-turn even if the public swing behind it.
    It may convince enough on a second vote though after an initial protest and also win over some Labour waverers. At the end of the day MPs employers are the voters and if they want the Deal over the alternatives that will be the result
    There that faith about a second vote. Why would that happen when the first is rejected by possibly 150+?

    Second vote wishful thinking is the new 'easiest deal in history' talk.
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33
    edited November 2018
    The only people who'd really have an aneurysm about a remain win in a second referendum would be a dwindling minority of gout-ridden elderly gammons, who pose no threat to anyone. Most people would just be happy to forget the whole thing. And of course if it was a democratic vote noone would have any cause to complain anyway.
  • Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    And Remain as anti-democratic.

    If Remain win, do you think they'll agree to 'best of three'?

    Didn't think so.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    And Remain as anti-democratic.

    If Remain win, do you think they'll agree to 'best of three'?

    Didn't think so.
    If Remain win, do you think any politician asking people to go through Brexit all over again will get much of a hearing?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Keep up the faith HYUFD.

    I don't see how that helps get a deal through when near a hundred Tory MPs will vote against, opposed on terms too significant to u-turn even if the public swing behind it.
    It may convince enough on a second vote though after an initial protest and also win over some Labour waverers. At the end of the day MPs employers are the voters and if they want the Deal over the alternatives that will be the result
    But, of course, May will never be allowed a second vote, so it hardly matters.
    She will, over 200 Tory MPs out of 318 back May and her Deal
    You really are adorable when you're at your most wilfully dense.

    The Tory payroll vote don't support her. They're just biding their time waiting for the axe to fall.

    No PM, having just orchestrated the most brutal public humiliation for a sitting Prime Minister in parliamentary history, will be allowed to just stand up and say "again".

    May will announce her resignation within the hour of the failure of her deal. In the unlikely she does not, her party will announce it for her.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited November 2018
    JayW said:

    The only people who'd really have an aneurysm about a remain win in a second referendum would be a dwindling minority of gout-ridden elderly gammons, who pose no threat to anyone. Most people would just be happy to forget the whole thing. And of course if it was a democratic vote noone would have any cause to complain anyway.

    So, best of three in the unlikely event that your lot win next time?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    MikeL said:

    Worth noting that this polling turnaround has happened pretty quickly and in spite of the overwhelming criticism of the deal.

    There is still two weeks until the vote - it's entirely possible that momentum may build up which will increase public support further.

    However that in no way means that MPs will vote for the deal. But if there is clear public support then very strong pressure will come to bear on MPs in any subsequent vote.

    Twice as many oppose the deal than support it according to the poll. Practically everyone would prefer to either stay in the EU or leave without a deal I am confused where the Mail gets its figures from.
    From the DM article :

    "Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40."

    Strong backing for a #peoples vote too., which is probably why Theresa is campaigning with the people who will vote in it, rather than the MPs.

    Can we not drop the line people's vote, especially with the damn hashtag. It makes my skin crawl !
    Let's call it what it is, a second referendum, we're not a pro remain campaign group here.

    Just a small rant :)
    Peoples vote is just a lame attempt to hide the fact that remainers want to have us vote again and again if need be until we get the "right" result.

    The right result being what they want.

    How very EU.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/27/theresa-may-accused-dangerous-brexit-cover-up-blocksfull-publication/

    Should we not see the facts?

    Or do we only get the ones she wants to show to push her line?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited November 2018
    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    Nope. Politics is already poisoned. The only way out is for a #peoplesvote and for Remain to win. Everyone will breathe a sigh of relief except for a small minority of headbangers who have always been headbangers and will continue to be, no matter what. Most people really don't care as long as it's sorted without damage. Problem solved. Next.
    Such wishful thinking. You could not more obviously be believing what you want must be true just because. I think remain would win, but to pretend there would be no issues is incomprehensible. If that sort of thinking were right we'd never get in these situations to begin with, and people get pretty ugly, prejudiced and superior in dismissing the possibility of concerns. (Anyone who gleefully posits they will win as their opponents die off, as several have done, are being very politically unattractive. And I back a second ref and remain over no deal)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    edited November 2018
    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    Nope. Politics is already poisoned. The only way out is for a #peoplesvote and for Remain to win. Everyone will breathe a sigh of relief except for a small minority of headbangers who have always been headbangers and will continue to be, no matter what. Most people really don't care as long as it's sorted without damage. Problem solved. Next.
    @Barnesian, out of interest, do you know many people who voted Leave?
    Yes unfortunately.

    EDIT: Although, to be fair, some have changed their mind.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Mortimer said:

    JayW said:

    The only people who'd really have an aneurysm about a remain win in a second referendum would be a dwindling minority of gout-ridden elderly gammons, who pose no threat to anyone. Most people would just be happy to forget the whole thing. And of course if it was a democratic vote noone would have any cause to complain anyway.

    So, best of three in the unlikely event that your lot win next time?
    The withdrawal agreement will be ready and waiting if you can get a majority in parliament to pass the backstop.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    No,

    a result for Remain will make Britain sane again. Brexitism will have been exposed as a busted flush.
    And Remain as anti-democratic.

    If Remain win, do you think they'll agree to 'best of three'?

    Didn't think so.
    Every year that goes by kills off Brexit's base. This was the last gasp of a dying reactionary generation. The newer cohorts will keep their more cosmopolitan outlook even as they age, as it is what they grew up with.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Barnesian said:

    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    Nope. Politics is already poisoned. The only way out is for a #peoplesvote and for Remain to win. Everyone will breathe a sigh of relief except for a small minority of headbangers who have always been headbangers and will continue to be, no matter what. Most people really don't care as long as it's sorted without damage. Problem solved. Next.
    @Barnesian, out of interest, do you know many people who voted Leave?
    Yes unfortunately.
    Does he really look a billion dollars xD
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Barnesian said:

    Mortimer said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I mentioned on the previous thread that we are heading towards a Remain / No Deal referendum. I said this will poison politics for a generation, and it will.

    If Remain wins, then half the country will feel betrayed - maybe even slightly more than half. They will feel they made a democratic choice and it was overruled. Even some of the people that voted Remain in the second referendum will be pissed, feeling they were bumped into voting Remain by the threat of serious (immediate) economic problems.

    If No Deal wins, then there will be serious economic repercussions. British firms selling to South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Switzerland will all face serious headwinds. Petrol will be more expensive. There won't be famine or missing medicines, but there will probably be a serious recession. People will lose their jobs, and they will blame - not themselves - but the politcians who refused to come to a deal. They will be apoplectic when the discover their house is worth less and their friend lost their job, but Crispin Odey, who backed Brexit made billions.

    In both cases, politics will be poisoned.

    It is in the interests of the country that we come to a deal. Maybe the way forward is a referendum in Northern Ireland. Maybe the EU can (and they should) soften the backstop. (The reality is that politics in Northern Ireland will determine what happens there - not a treaty, and the EU should recognise this.) But Remainers needs to get with the programme and recognise that this deal is better than No Deal. And Leavers need to realise that a Deal (however imperfect) is better than Remain, and it is better that the whole country stays together.

    Nope. Politics is already poisoned. The only way out is for a #peoplesvote and for Remain to win. Everyone will breathe a sigh of relief except for a small minority of headbangers who have always been headbangers and will continue to be, no matter what. Most people really don't care as long as it's sorted without damage. Problem solved. Next.
    @Barnesian, out of interest, do you know many people who voted Leave?
    Yes unfortunately.
    That reply says an awful lot more about you, than them.
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