Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate TMay’s chances of getting the Brexit deal agreed
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate TMay’s chances of getting the Brexit deal agreed by MPs this years at 14%
Unlike one or two of her predecessors I am not aware that Theresa May follows political betting and the way the odds are changing. If she had have done she would have noticed about 6pm this evening the chances of her getting the brexit vote agreed before the end of the year was down to 3.3%.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.
It wasn't absurd to think it might get passed initially, even with not inconsiderable opposition first up. But even knowing people don't like compromises, that many are using it as an opportunity to remain and for party advantage, the level of momentum against it has been impressive.
What the hell happened earlier? Comments seemed to be off for three hours.
As for Vanilla, blame tech support.
The only solution that solves the problems in Parliament is that of amending the deal, primarily to address the unsuitability of the backstop.
Yes, yes, yes the EU says today that they won't change it. But then anyone who's ever negotiated will have come across someone who says "this is my final offer" then rejected that final offer only to suddenly see a new and improved "final offer" is suddenly actually available. They're never going to say there's a new offer available before rejection, negotiations don't work like that.
Ultimately we want a deal, the EU wants a deal. There is a basic deal here but its not acceptable. A few tweaks will make it acceptable. That is the ONLY viable solution and anyone who says otherwise is delusional, disingenuous or in denial. There is no other viable solution and at the end of the day we all need a viable solution.
I find the tactics employed now pretty interesting, because it is clear as day MPs have made up their minds (and the reasons they give make backtracking after an initial vote difficult even if it were not defeated in soul crushingly heavy fashion, which it will be) but she hasn't just ignored them, she has done questions in the house and arranged briefings, and yet she can see it has not helped (on the contrary). So her appeals directly to the public, again pretty unsuccessfully, look almost like an attempt to get around the MPs, but if it is defeated too heavily even the public will never get a chance to weigh in on it anyway, so what is the point?
Also. Ignore vox pops. They are the worst kind of media manipulation. How many interviews to get those opinions? How were the people selected? By random sample?
He's given me an idea for Sunday's thread.
Précis - The ERG are like that horse the Greeks sent to Troy.
Ballybrack FC informed the league that Spanish native Fernando Nuno La-Fuente had died in a traffic accident.
Their game against Arklow Town on Saturday was postponed while a minute's silence was held before other fixtures.
However, it was confirmed on Tuesday that the player was alive and back in Spain.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/46363865
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/27/donald-trump-offered-theresa-may-trade-deal-four-months-ago/
http://www.espncricinfo.com/magazine/content/story/517588.html
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/31/commons-rules-allow-theresa-may-ignore-mps-vote-alternative-brexit
Whereas the Institute for Government is rather less equivocal
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-meaningful-vote-brexit
Clear as mud I would suggest.
Is there a market on if she will still be an MP next year? I think the chances of her going as PM this year are very high, but I don't think she'd quit as an MP right away, she'd want to stick around to see what PM Raab or Boris come up with.
I do actually kind of accept the reported comment that May might try to get the opportunity for a second MP vote if it is rejected by less than 100, since as preposterous as I find the idea of abstaining on this matter if there were enough discipline to hold off the pressures of GE and referendum I could at least conceive of enough MPs abstaining to avoid accidental no deal to at least make it closer.
But a loss well over a hundred as we are looking at? It won't even make a referendum as has also been floated. And she won't get the chance to ask them again. It's a stretch to think the government would retain the unity to offer it again if it loses at all, or by 50 or so, but having been so thumped? Don't make me laugh.
So why would the EU even bother to try reopening negotiation?
The only hope really is that they don't take the existing deal off the table until Parliament comes to its senses.
If a deal is reached that is to the satisfaction of the DUP (which should have been a prerequisite from the beginning) then isn't that 10 extra votes immediately? Thus a net change of 20.
How many Tory MPs who vote Nay will vote Aye if the backstop is fixed? 40? 50? 60? That's another 80-120 swing.
The backstop is the killer. The EU thought the UK would concede. I thought to be honest that Parliament would reluctantly back any deal May reached. We were wrong. Its time for a change and once that change goes through (as much as it might disappoint Varadkar, an immediate hard border and closure of the land bridge to 80% of his exports would disappoint more) the deal becomes acceptable.
Tezzie is currently doing the political equivalent of Cav's ride that day.
Bad ones will negotiate tightly within given parameters and try to optimise the outcome
Good advisers will guide the client to the right outcome
The EU team has done a good job of squeezing as hard as possible. They’ve over extended themselves and need to be walked back. Otherwise they will lose the deal because they don’t see the bigger strategic picture
Problem is that Macron is the only person who can walk them back right now and he believes May will fold
Trouble is they don't seem to want to offer anything more to the EU for that other than being serious about no deal this time. Which is hard to do when the Commons as a whole is not serious about no deal and will fight tooth and nail to prevent it, which makes negotiation harder. Unless the EU really have been bluffing this whole time, we'd need to offer them something.
At least Labour's position, while similar, has them conceding something more to the EU in the shape of an even closer relationship.
But she won't have the chance. A three figure loss and the letters go in. No ifs and no buts this time. It could easily be 100 letters.
A classic episode, and why Father Ted has to kick Bishop Brennan up the arse.
The most positive outcome for the EU now is we remain after all, but that's hardly one without strings attached to it, since there will be a sizable, very bitter contingent left here and I very much doubt the number of arch euro federalists is going to explode in this country.
Trump seems to have no comprehension of the notion of "jurisdiction".
"Hey, sue those guys! You and me can do a great deal!"
Here is the opinion of him held by the guy who wrote The Art of the Deal for him, Tony Schwartz.
It's difficult not to feel sorry for everyone who has to work with Trump in whatever role.
I read somewhere that when Trump met Angela Merkel, she and her team had to explain to him about 10 times that Germany cannot sign a trade agreement with the US because Germany is a member of the European Union, which is a trading bloc. And still, on parting, the idiot told Merkel "We're gonna sign a great trade deal, our country and your country, yeah?"
Good evening, everyone.
As for the hypothetical second vote, I think the theory is it could happen pretty quickly, before Xmas, as it would be an unchanged version so what's preventing them getting in another vote before they recess?
I hope they don't bother though. We need it to go at least once, for the public record, but if it loses by so much don't inflict the nonsense of another one on us. I regard many of the other options as wildly optimistic and unrealistic, but parliament will have indicated they want that to be tried (in the sense they want to try something other than this deal at least).
But this is the only solution that is viable. No deal isn't viable, this deal isn't viable, remain isn't viable.
As Sherlock Holmes said Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.
This is improbable but the only solution that is possible. The backstop has to go.
Though people crying about the percentage loss vs staying in the EU, thereby believing such forecasts, should have to very carefully consider what they want if they are still so blase about risking no deal.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1067482862503583744
He didn't count on Parliament. Who honestly thought three months ago we'd see a position where the PM reached a deal and we'd see Parliament reject it - in December - by potentially a three figure margin? I don't think anyone saw that coming as the most likely outcome.
Thus the fact have changed so they need to go back and have a rethink.
https://twitter.com/EdKrassen/status/1067526559387521025
I agree, @kle4, about the letters. Perhaps she'll even receive the good news in between debating with Jeremy Corbyn and the Commons vote?
By the way, will the TV debate happen after the Commons debate has started? I thought five days of debate had been allowed in the Commons, and the BBC suggests that the TV event will happen " a few" days before the vote. A "few" is less than five, right?
(*) Bonus for 10: what does the phrase "rebel Tory" have in common with "River Avon"?
I do not think there is a desire by the public to replace her like there is on this forum
Lake Rotorua too.
However if (and it's still an it) the deal is rejected by anything like a three figure majority she needs to go. No ifs, no buts. The PM has to be someone who commands the confidence of the House and if the PM can't carry her signature policy on the most critical issue facing the country then a new leader is needed. That logic applied to Chamberlain even when he won his vote, it certainly applies here.
http://www.twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1063846096051552257/photo/1
No backstop, and we’re here all over again in 18 months, with no trade deals with the rest of the world, and the existing access to our largest market once again in jeopardy against the clock.
It's going to be the top end of the range.
It will be open season while she is gone.
I hope they can get rid of it, I would like there to be a deal, but if the rebels are wrong or unsuccessful they will be bringing about remain. I hope not a single one dares complain about that when it happens, particularly when several admit remaining is preferable to some options.
Good night all.
These will go down in every history book.
What a f***ing awful mess...