So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
Labour's problem would be having to take a position at the next referendum
I see Dominic Raab's painfully slow education is continuing. Having recently discovered that Britain is an island off the coast of France he is now in the process of learning that there is no post-Brexit deal better for the UK than being inside the EU.
Rory presented a history series premised on how Hadrians Wall artificially splits Britain into England and Scotland but then shows the histories of kingdoms that spanned the Wall quite happily showing it didn't act as a border at all.
From memory, I think his point was slightly different to that.
Last nights locals were quite good for the conservatives, last nights question time saw Clive Lewis and labour attacked and general support for TM and the deal
Labour do not seem to be cutting through and Corbyn's response at the dispatch box was really poor.
It does look like ERG are going to lose their prize but I am not convinced labour will gain much credit over this
Very few people watch QT so I wouldn't take that as a barometer of public opinion. As for last night's local contests, there was a very good Conservative result in Enfield but no seats actually changed hands so it's hard to read a lot into that and with turnouts of 25% not quite sure it's as significant as all that.
It's very early days and the public have yet to really catch up - of course the "we're tired with Brexit so let's get on with it" tendency will no doubt proliferate but saying that is not supporting the Prime Minister's deal - it's simply saying something has to be resolved.
So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
Labour's problem would be having to take a position at the next referendum
So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
Remain only happens if voters back it in EUref2
If they do, every ill in Britain then belong EU - an the politician who stopped us leaving it.
And then it is just a matter of time before it becomes "best of three" - and dominates domestic politics. As the EU will quickly spot.
God knows why they would want us "back for a bit".
The 'best of three' argument only works if the same proposition is in place each time. If a referendum was held now we would know a lot more.
This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.
I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
Remain would probably beat No Deal about 55% to 45% according to polls but that 45% would match the total Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and give Farage and Boris endless scope to cry 'betrayal' (as I think they secretly wanted all along, they never actually wanted Leave to win, a narrow Remain win was always the best result for their careers)
My feeling is that No Deal beats Remain because in the end the campaign would become the Prime Minister telling the electorate to choose between two options, but you can't choose one of the options it is crazy. I think at the moment the electorate is minded to blow a raspberry at commands that it can't choose to do things (note this could also apply to Corbyn).
That said I cannot envisage May calling a referendum without her deal being on the ballot paper - the struggle will be what is up against it.
Any second referendum quickly becomes framed as the PM asking "Who governs Britain - we the politicians or you the voters?"
Ted Heath might have had some advice on asking the voters who governs Britain....
If a referendum arrives it will have gone through a tortuous process and it will need leaders for the arguments. I would expect TM or whoever is PM to remain neutral ready to act on the verdict
TM said yesterday she won't be PM if there is a second referendum.
Given she's made a pig's ear of our relationship with the EU once, I expect she would maintain a dignified silence. Remain would be hoping so....
It's a shite deal negotiated by a shite negotiator (was her heart really in it?) against a team of shysters.
If it's perceived as a step along the road, it might be acceptable to more Leavers, and it will be a question of do you trust Mrs May? I suspect that's why female voters are more likely to answer yes.
Remain is no longer acceptable to many because it represents a triumph for Juncker et al, and let's face it, a kick in the balls for the UK. Bringing logic into this now misses the point.
Your dad might be right. With age comes wisdom. The people who run the country - no longer the media consumers but the media producer - won't allow their power to be reduced.
As Marshall McLuhan said in the 1960s, the medium is the message.
To answer your question about the value of a referendum now, if Theresa May's deal is to be junked, as presently looks likely, the country will in practice need to decide whether to leave with no deal or Remain (there isn't a third option in reality). The country did not vote to Remain but equally it did not vote for leaving with no deal and all the disruption that entails either. Parliament has no moral right to take either decision and it would be even worse if whatever outcome emerged from not having taken a positive decision. For the country to stumble into either would poison debate in the country for decades, whichever way it jumped.
A fresh referendum campaign would also be poisonous but in my judgement marginally less poisonous.
As a matter of checking the facts, and I think the answer is "No" - could parliament get through legislation for a referendum without the explicit backing of the Gov't ?
That's a good question but it is, I think, the wrong one. What is the government going to do if its deal is decisively thrown out? I can't imagine it's going to sit on its hands for four months. What is Plan C?
This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.
I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
Remain would probably beat No Deal about 55% to 45% according to polls but that 45% would match the total Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and give Farage and Boris endless scope to cry 'betrayal' (as I think they secretly wanted all along, they never actually wanted Leave to win, a narrow Remain win was always the best result for their careers)
My feeling is that No Deal beats Remain because in the end the campaign would become the Prime Minister telling the electorate to choose between two options, but you can't choose one of the options it is crazy. I think at the moment the electorate is minded to blow a raspberry at commands that it can't choose to do things (note this could also apply to Corbyn).
That said I cannot envisage May calling a referendum without her deal being on the ballot paper - the struggle will be what is up against it.
Any second referendum quickly becomes framed as the PM asking "Who governs Britain - we the politicians or you the voters?"
Ted Heath might have had some advice on asking the voters who governs Britain....
If a referendum arrives it will have gone through a tortuous process and it will need leaders for the arguments. I would expect TM or whoever is PM to remain neutral ready to act on the verdict
I'm not sure it's tenable for a PM to remain neutral in what would be a highly charged and bitter campaign. He or she might not lead a campaign but they would have to give a view on the issues.
It's a shite deal negotiated by a shite negotiator (was her heart really in it?) against a team of shysters.
If it's perceived as a step along the road, it might be acceptable to more Leavers, and it will be a question of do you trust Mrs May? I suspect that's why female voters are more likely to answer yes.
Remain is no longer acceptable to many because it represents a triumph for Juncker et al, and let's face it, a kick in the balls for the UK. Bringing logic into this now misses the point.
It's always good to see fervent Leavers opine on the lack of attractiveness of Remain.
So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Yes, the game Raab and others are playing is too clever by half. It leads to a walloping at the polls and Corbyn.
Not necessarily. Brexit happens as things stand and the Conservatives are not going to put forward primary legislation to change that. A change of trajectory back to Remain will only come about through a Labour amendment supported by a minority of Conservative MPs. In those circumstances many Leave-supporting Labour seats could be up for grabs. The Conservatives are also greatly aided by the decision of UKIP to transform itself into a party appealing only to far right extremists.
Actually you have a point. If a labour amendment for a second referendum were to derail the process, they would inflict a big wound on their leave areas
Your dad might be right. With age comes wisdom. The people who run the country - no longer the media consumers but the media producer - won't allow their power to be reduced.
As Marshall McLuhan said in the 1960s, the medium is the message.
To answer your question about the value of a referendum now, if Theresa May's deal is to be junked, as presently looks likely, the country will in practice need to decide whether to leave with no deal or Remain (there isn't a third option in reality). The country did not vote to Remain but equally it did not vote for leaving with no deal and all the disruption that entails either. Parliament has no moral right to take either decision and it would be even worse if whatever outcome emerged from not having taken a positive decision. For the country to stumble into either would poison debate in the country for decades, whichever way it jumped.
A fresh referendum campaign would also be poisonous but in my judgement marginally less poisonous.
As a matter of checking the facts, and I think the answer is "No" - could parliament get through legislation for a referendum without the explicit backing of the Gov't ?
That's a good question but it is, I think, the wrong one. What is the government going to do if its deal is decisively thrown out? I can't imagine it's going to sit on its hands for four months. What is Plan C?
May hands the reins to Boris, "I'm off, you deal with this shitshow."
Most unusually, my mum raised the subject of Brexit earlier in the week asking me what I thought was going to happen next (she's interested in politics in a "civic duty" kind of way rather than a geeky way, but doesn't go looking for arguments so she doesn't like to talk about it much). I was non-committal - you know me, always shy to give my opinion. She then said "your dad always said that we'd leave without a deal. He was always adamant about that, that they wouldn't agree on anything."
He and I didn't talk about politics so this was news to me. He might yet be right though.
That's why I am beginning to think Brexit can't actually work. The WA and draft political statement are as good as Brexit gets. I don't even mean it's the best deal from the choices available to us. I mean that it is an interim stage where all the controversial stuff is kept to later, with the exception of Ireland. It's downhilld from now on. We will need to make the trade offs where we don't like either choice. In particular we need to choose between making things much harder for ourselves or simply fitting in and doing what we are told. I see a lot of pushback on the Vassal State and if Brexit had any point at all, it was surely to "take control" At the same time no-one countenances hardship when Brexit was sold as the no cost, choose what you want, option.
It's strange how this second referendum has become a comfort blanket for sore losers.
We can extend it to GE results. If Labour sweep to power in 2022, you can always claim that the people have changed their minds within days - well before the Labour government is ensconced.
Then you can claim that it's illegitimate because the manifesto didn't take into account the views of those who voted for another party - a clear majority in this instance. You could then claim they didn't vote to make the country poorer and they didn't understand what a Labour government meant.
Finally, after about 18 months to two years, the period when sitting governments usually lose popularity, you can claim again that the nation has changed its mind and therefore we should have another general election immediately.
Edit: And how would a second referendum help, even if it showed a small majority for Remain (assuming it was even on the ballot paper)?
We do extend the argument to GE results. Parliament automatically dissolves itself after 5 years. There is a procedure to have fresh elections earlier than that. The 2017 General Election was sooner after the 2015 General Election than we now are from the 2016 referendum.
Mr. Mark, there'd be an argument to try and frame the debate in the most helpful way for position X.
However, the options are critical. If it's May's rubbish deal versus Remain, I maintain that Remain will win handily.
If it's Leave (with no deal) versus Remain, that'll be tighter.
May's only hope, after Westminster votes it down, is to ask: given you wanted Brexit, what type of Brexit do you want: No Deal or My Deal? Her Deal would handily win and she would get her way. Problem being she said yesterday she is not PM if there is a second Referendum. So it would rather require her successor to be sufficiently wedded to her deal to go around the country asking the voters if they would like a Theresa May "Shit sandwich? Or starving to death?"
I see Dominic Raab's painfully slow education is continuing. Having recently discovered that Britain is an island off the coast of France he is now in the process of learning that there is no post-Brexit deal better for the UK than being inside the EU.
The level of ignorance is shocking. Lord knows where this is all going to end. However, I don't see Leave winning a second referendum. My inclination is increasingly that we'll end up staying and that is some comfort as I think a JC government which will be soon upon us needs such an external force to curb its likely excesses.
So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Yes, the game Raab and others are playing is too clever by half. It leads to a walloping at the polls and Corbyn.
Not necessarily. Brexit happens as things stand and the Conservatives are not going to put forward primary legislation to change that. A change of trajectory back to Remain will only come about through a Labour amendment supported by a minority of Conservative MPs. In those circumstances many Leave-supporting Labour seats could be up for grabs. The Conservatives are also greatly aided by the decision of UKIP to transform itself into a party appealing only to far right extremists.
Actually you have a point. If a labour amendment for a second referendum were to derail the process, they would inflict a big wound on their leave areas
A point about 'traditional' Labour leave heartlands that turned toward, but are still a bit off for the Tories (Which is precisely where I live) - The leave voters are voting Tory there already. Flint and Mann have the remain cohort; people pay astonishingly little attention to individual MPs ideas.
Last nights locals were quite good for the conservatives, last nights question time saw Clive Lewis and labour attacked and general support for TM and the deal
Labour do not seem to be cutting through and Corbyn's response at the dispatch box was really poor.
It does look like ERG are going to lose their prize but I am not convinced labour will gain much credit over this
Very few people watch QT so I wouldn't take that as a barometer of public opinion. As for last night's local contests, there was a very good Conservative result in Enfield but no seats actually changed hands so it's hard to read a lot into that and with turnouts of 25% not quite sure it's as significant as all that.
It's very early days and the public have yet to really catch up - of course the "we're tired with Brexit so let's get on with it" tendency will no doubt proliferate but saying that is not supporting the Prime Minister's deal - it's simply saying something has to be resolved.
I presumed the Enfield result was connected with Labour's 'Jewish problem'.
Mr. Mark, there'd be an argument to try and frame the debate in the most helpful way for position X.
However, the options are critical. If it's May's rubbish deal versus Remain, I maintain that Remain will win handily.
If it's Leave (with no deal) versus Remain, that'll be tighter.
May's only hope, after Westminster votes it down, is to ask: given you wanted Brexit, what type of Brexit do you want: No Deal or My Deal? Her Deal would handily win and she would get her way. Problem being she said yesterday she is not PM if there is a second Referendum. So it would rather require her successor to be sufficiently wedded to her deal to go around the country asking the voters if they would like a Theresa May "Shit sandwich? Or starving to death?"
She already tried framing it as her deal or no deal. It didn't work
This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.
I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
Remain would probably beat No Deal about 55% to 45% according to polls but that 45% would match the total Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and give Farage and Boris endless scope to cry 'betrayal' (as I think they secretly wanted all along, they never actually wanted Leave to win, a narrow Remain win was always the best result for their careers)
My feeling is that No Deal beats Remain because in the end the campaign would become the Prime Minister telling the electorate to choose between two options, but you can't choose one of the options it is crazy. I think at the moment the electorate is minded to blow a raspberry at commands that it can't choose to do things (note this could also apply to Corbyn).
That said I cannot envisage May calling a referendum without her deal being on the ballot paper - the struggle will be what is up against it.
Nope, virtually no chance No Deal beats Remain as about 10% to 20% of the Leave vote was soft Brexiteers who would switch to Remain over the economic damage of No Deal.
Remember Leave only scraped 52% with single market backers, 'easiest deal in history' believers and immigration haters and Singapore lovers all in its tent
10-20% of the Remain vote I'm sure would be susceptible to the "who governs Britain" argument.
If they voted Remain last time no Remainers are switching
Bold statement. Already we have our own @Richard_Nabavi voting Leave next time if there were to be a second referendum.
He is a conservative government loyalist , whatever their position is he follows.
If we are discussing potential leaders, I have to say though that as someone from the other side of the political spectrum I have been impressed with Raab in much the same terms - i.e. calm and effective handling of questioning, and an interesting back story in a real job that dates back to involvement in the Oslo Peace accords. He also seems to have handled himself well since his resignation, being effective in making the case against May's deal.
It is a shame that Rees-Mogg chose to explicitly back Johnson, who doesn't have those qualities.
Mr. Mark, there'd be an argument to try and frame the debate in the most helpful way for position X.
However, the options are critical. If it's May's rubbish deal versus Remain, I maintain that Remain will win handily.
If it's Leave (with no deal) versus Remain, that'll be tighter.
May's only hope, after Westminster votes it down, is to ask: given you wanted Brexit, what type of Brexit do you want: No Deal or My Deal? Her Deal would handily win and she would get her way. Problem being she said yesterday she is not PM if there is a second Referendum. So it would rather require her successor to be sufficiently wedded to her deal to go around the country asking the voters if they would like a Theresa May "Shit sandwich? Or starving to death?"
She already tried framing it as her deal or no deal. It didn't work
We haven't had the vote yet. I would expect a very late night with beer and sandwiches on the night before with Ollie and Tezza and the DUP. And then for the DUP to troop through the Aye lobby.
Your dad might be right. With age comes wisdom. The people who run the country - no longer the media consumers but the media producer - won't allow their power to be reduced.
As Marshall McLuhan said in the 1960s, the medium is the message.
To answer your question about the value of a referendum now, if Theresa May's deal is to be junked, as presently looks likely, the country will in practice need to decide whether to leave with no deal or Remain (there isn't a third option in reality). The country did not vote to Remain but equally it did not vote for leaving with no deal and all the disruption that entails either. Parliament has no moral right to take either decision and it would be even worse if whatever outcome emerged from not having taken a positive decision. For the country to stumble into either would poison debate in the country for decades, whichever way it jumped.
A fresh referendum campaign would also be poisonous but in my judgement marginally less poisonous.
It helps that UKIP are showing their true colours by aligning with the odious Tommy Robinson. As have too many posters on here, sadly.
I might have missed something, who aligned with him? He has been right about some things, but the EDL and it’s aossociated people are unpredictable and will quickly eat anyone who takes on their cause. Tommy Robinson is a name recognised by many many youngsters though due to social media. Robinson very easily provokes the establishment to treat him how he wants to. His reporting of a “sentancing hearing” of a case that had reporting restrictions as much for “community sensitivities” as for justice, resulting in his summary arrest and unlawful detention does nothing but help his case.
Utter madness for UKIP to get caught up with him, but let’s hope that Trumpism style populism can’t enthuse the youth who are right leaning the same way that Corbyn has on the left.
So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
No evidence of that at present. You may be right but you may also be reflecting your own hopes
That's because people think that we're in the process of Leaving the EU.
Now if instead we Remained in the EU don't you think the dynamic would change somewhat ?
And don't you think all those posturing and incompetent Conservative politicians might get rather a lot of blame from disappointed Leave voters ?
That's a good question but it is, I think, the wrong one. What is the government going to do if its deal is decisively thrown out? I can't imagine it's going to sit on its hands for four months. What is Plan C?
A referendum is one option, making plans for a crash out Brexit is another.
This is the Brexiteers counter strike. The last few day's has seen No 10 move to nuke No Deal first. The counter strike is Brexiteers delegitimising the Deal in the most profound way possible - saying Remaining would be better. Some #FBPE fools think this means they now favour Remaining.
I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
Remain would probably beat No Deal about 55% to 45% according to polls but that 45% would match the total Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and give Farage and Boris endless scope to cry 'betrayal' (as I think they secretly wanted all along, they never actually wanted Leave to win, a narrow Remain win was always the best result for their careers)
My feeling is that No Deal beats Remain because in the end the campaign would become the Prime Minister telling the electorate to choose between two options, but you can't choose one of the options it is crazy. I think at the moment the electorate is minded to blow a raspberry at commands that it can't choose to do things (note this could also apply to Corbyn).
That said I cannot envisage May calling a referendum without her deal being on the ballot paper - the struggle will be what is up against it.
Any second referendum quickly becomes framed as the PM asking "Who governs Britain - we the politicians or you the voters?"
Ted Heath might have had some advice on asking the voters who governs Britain....
If a referendum arrives it will have gone through a tortuous process and it will need leaders for the arguments. I would expect TM or whoever is PM to remain neutral ready to act on the verdict
I'm not sure it's tenable for a PM to remain neutral in what would be a highly charged and bitter campaign. He or she might not lead a campaign but they would have to give a view on the issues.
I see no reason why the PM at the time cannot stay neutral.
Indeed the referendum in those circumstances would not be as political.
So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Yes, the game Raab and others are playing is too clever by half. It leads to a walloping at the polls and Corbyn.
Not necessarily. Brexit happens as things stand and the Conservatives are not going to put forward primary legislation to change that. A change of trajectory back to Remain will only come about through a Labour amendment supported by a minority of Conservative MPs. In those circumstances many Leave-supporting Labour seats could be up for grabs. The Conservatives are also greatly aided by the decision of UKIP to transform itself into a party appealing only to far right extremists.
Actually you have a point. If a labour amendment for a second referendum were to derail the process, they would inflict a big wound on their leave areas
A point about 'traditional' Labour leave heartlands that turned toward, but are still a bit off for the Tories (Which is precisely where I live) - The leave voters are voting Tory there already. Flint and Mann have the remain cohort; people pay astonishingly little attention to individual MPs ideas.
Quite. And Labour Leave voters are generally not that interested in the EU as an issue, or indeed any other issues, they are just p*ssed off generally and take any opportunity to express anger and frustration. For many of them Party loyalty trumps their views about the EU.
Your dad might be right. With age comes wisdom. The people who run the country - no longer the media consumers but the media producer - won't allow their power to be reduced.
As Marshall McLuhan said in the 1960s, the medium is the message.
To answer your question about the value of a referendum now, if Theresa May's deal is to be junked, as presently looks likely, the country will in practice need to decide whether to leave with no deal or Remain (there isn't a third option in reality). The country did not vote to Remain but equally it did not vote for leaving with no deal and all the disruption that entails either. Parliament has no moral right to take either decision and it would be even worse if whatever outcome emerged from not having taken a positive decision. For the country to stumble into either would poison debate in the country for decades, whichever way it jumped.
A fresh referendum campaign would also be poisonous but in my judgement marginally less poisonous.
It helps that UKIP are showing their true colours by aligning with the odious Tommy Robinson. As have too many posters on here, sadly.
I might have missed something, who aligned with him? He has been right about some things, but the EDL and it’s aossociated people are unpredictable and will quickly eat anyone who takes on their cause. Tommy Robinson is a name recognised by many many youngsters though due to social media. Robinson very easily provokes the establishment to treat him how he wants to. His reporting of a “sentancing hearing” of a case that had reporting restrictions as much for “community sensitivities” as for justice, resulting in his summary arrest and unlawful detention does nothing but help his case.
Utter madness for UKIP to get caught up with him, but let’s hope that Trumpism style populism can’t enthuse the youth who are right leaning the same way that Corbyn has on the left.
Youngsters often see things in black and white...
"is reporting of a “sentancing hearing” of a case that had reporting restrictions as much for “community sensitivities” as for justice,"
What's your evidence it was more for 'community sensitives' than justice? Wasn't there other cases that might be prejudiced as well?
Interesting to consider the motives of the brexiteers, the true believers (like Mogg) whose priority is cutting ties with the EU and the careerists (like BoJo and Raab) whose priority is becoming tory leader. I think both groups would prefer a 2nd ref to the deal. Indeed BoJo I sense is yearning for that. So I will add this to my rapidly expanding list of reasons why a 2nd ref is a truly terrible idea.
So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Yes, the game Raab and others are playing is too clever by half. It leads to a walloping at the polls and Corbyn.
Not necessarily. Brexit happens as things stand and the Conservatives are not going to put forward primary legislation to change that. A change of trajectory back to Remain will only come about through a Labour amendment supported by a minority of Conservative MPs. In those circumstances many Leave-supporting Labour seats could be up for grabs. The Conservatives are also greatly aided by the decision of UKIP to transform itself into a party appealing only to far right extremists.
Actually you have a point. If a labour amendment for a second referendum were to derail the process, they would inflict a big wound on their leave areas
A point about 'traditional' Labour leave heartlands that turned toward, but are still a bit off for the Tories (Which is precisely where I live) - The leave voters are voting Tory there already. Flint and Mann have the remain cohort; people pay astonishingly little attention to individual MPs ideas.
Quite. And Labour Leave voters are generally not that interested in the EU as an issue, or indeed any other issues, they are just p*ssed off generally and take any opportunity to express anger and frustration. For many of them Party loyalty trumps their views about the EU.
Ye - if we remain, the Tories can wave goodbye to that potential gain in Ashfield.
Anyways, I think that we're all looking in the wrong place for next leader. There's only one man of rock hard rectitude and adamantium spine for the job.
But as the EU becomes a superstate Remaining wasn't a status quo, cake and eat it option either.
And of course if there is another referendum all of this will be aired again - Including the toxic idea of an EU army which isn't just an abstract concept like in 2016 but is now happening...
I think it's important for every movement to have a figurehead with a two syllable first name (xx) and then a three syllable second name (yyy) - the chant
Hey xx xx xx xx xx xx yyy Hey xx xx xx xx xx xx yyy
Makes for a good one at events and so forth. As an example, Jimmy Anderson fits the bill for England in the cricket here.
But as the EU becomes a superstate Remaining wasn't a status quo, cake and eat it option either.
And of course if there is another referendum all of this will be aired again - Including the toxic idea of an EU army which isn't just an abstract concept like in 2016 but is now happening...
So instead of a mandate for opting out of ever closer union if Remain had won in 2016, we’ll end up with a mandate for closer union.
Although i would give the balance of probabilties to Remain in a 2nd Ref, i don't think it's a slam dunk.
If the leavers can make it about things like the Euro, and EU Army, not to mention Schengen and migration, or things like a future US of E, then that might not be attractive to re-sign up to.
OT. Michelle Obama is well worth listening to. A pleasure listening to an observant human being involved in politics.
BTW Roger, caught up with McQueen - which is a truly excellent documentary - and The Happy Prince, with an outstanding perfomance by Rupert Everett as Oscar Wilde.
So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
No evidence of that at present. You may be right but you may also be reflecting your own hopes
That's because people think that we're in the process of Leaving the EU.
Now if instead we Remained in the EU don't you think the dynamic would change somewhat ?
And don't you think all those posturing and incompetent Conservative politicians might get rather a lot of blame from disappointed Leave voters ?
It depends on how it happens. If labour are seen to openly support a second referendum and it happens they will pay a price in their leave areas
Another referendum needs a new Act and quite possibly one repealing some existing referendum legislation if the timetable is tight. The Government has no majority in either House and as a second referendum wasn't in the Tory manifesto the Salisbury Convention doesn't apply to the Lords. Also the sitting PM who controls government business in parliament has said one isn't happening while she is PM. There is also absolutely no time to hold one before the current Brexit date.
The paradox is the only way you could currently get a second referendum would be in response to the collapse of Brexit not Brexit collapsing because of a second referendum. You'd need a genuine sense of national emergency and generous concessions on referendum terms to smooth it's passage with Labour and the Lords.
I think it's important for every movement to have a figurehead with a two syllable first name (xx) and then a three syllable second name (yyy) - the chant
Hey xx xx xx xx xx xx yyy Hey xx xx xx xx xx xx yyy
Makes for a good one at events and so forth. As an example, Jimmy Anderson fits the bill for England in the cricket here.
I often wondered how David Cameron got where he did
But as the EU becomes a superstate Remaining wasn't a status quo, cake and eat it option either.
And of course if there is another referendum all of this will be aired again - Including the toxic idea of an EU army which isn't just an abstract concept like in 2016 but is now happening...
So instead of a mandate for opting out of ever closer union if Remain had won in 2016, we’ll end up with a mandate for closer union.
If we vote for that, which we may well not. We may seek a status-quo membership.
So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
No evidence of that at present. You may be right but you may also be reflecting your own hopes
That's because people think that we're in the process of Leaving the EU.
Now if instead we Remained in the EU don't you think the dynamic would change somewhat ?
And don't you think all those posturing and incompetent Conservative politicians might get rather a lot of blame from disappointed Leave voters ?
It depends on how it happens. If labour are seen to openly support a second referendum and it happens they will pay a price in their leave areas
Doubtful, the Tories will pay the price for a second referendum - particularly in those Labour leave areas.
Another referendum needs a new Act and quite possibly one repealing some existing referendum legislation if the timetable is tight. The Government has no majority in either House and as a second referendum wasn't in the Tory manifesto the Salisbury Convention doesn't apply to the Lord's. Also the sitting PM who controls government business in parliament has said one isn't happening while she is PM. There is also absolutely no time to hold one before the current Brexit date.
The paradox is the only way you could currently get a second referendum would be in response to the collapse of Brexit not Brexit collapsing because of a second referendum. You'd need a genuine sense of national emergency and generous concessions on referendum terms to smooth it's passage with Labour and the Lords.
Not to mention there would be an absolute bun-fight over the terms and actual nature of what this referendum is.
But as the EU becomes a superstate Remaining wasn't a status quo, cake and eat it option either.
And of course if there is another referendum all of this will be aired again - Including the toxic idea of an EU army which isn't just an abstract concept like in 2016 but is now happening...
So instead of a mandate for opting out of ever closer union if Remain had won in 2016, we’ll end up with a mandate for closer union.
People didn't think Cameron's "opt out" for ever close union was worth the paper it was written on (after 40 years of betrayal from the political class, who can blame them?) So they seized their chance to get out while they could.
I doubt the situation will have massively changed should there be another referendum on the issue especially if you are right and we will now have to sign up for "ever closer union" including the EU army.
I don't think people will be keen to see their kids and grand kids going off to spill their blood on the Europe/Russian border on the orders of some failed political from Luxembourg (even though OGH was telling us yesterday that Juncker is apparently widely popular with the British people )
Indeed it is. It's much more gripping than any fictional drama.
But on another level it's terribly depressing to see the country mismanaged so badly that it is tearing itself apart in this way. It will take many years to repair the damage, and it could get a lot worse before it gets better.
So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
No evidence of that at present. You may be right but you may also be reflecting your own hopes
That's because people think that we're in the process of Leaving the EU.
Now if instead we Remained in the EU don't you think the dynamic would change somewhat ?
And don't you think all those posturing and incompetent Conservative politicians might get rather a lot of blame from disappointed Leave voters ?
It depends on how it happens. If labour are seen to openly support a second referendum and it happens they will pay a price in their leave areas
Doubtful, the Tories will pay the price for a second referendum - particularly in those Labour leave areas.
But as the EU becomes a superstate Remaining wasn't a status quo, cake and eat it option either.
And of course if there is another referendum all of this will be aired again - Including the toxic idea of an EU army which isn't just an abstract concept like in 2016 but is now happening...
So instead of a mandate for opting out of ever closer union if Remain had won in 2016, we’ll end up with a mandate for closer union.
If we vote for that, which we may well not. We may seek a status-quo membership.
This is why a 2nd referendum is tricky.
You’re missing the point. If the pro-Brexit side go full on with things like EU defence and the Euro and lose, the default assumptions about popular Euroscepticsm will be shattered.
So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
No evidence of that at present. You may be right but you may also be reflecting your own hopes
That's because people think that we're in the process of Leaving the EU.
Now if instead we Remained in the EU don't you think the dynamic would change somewhat ?
And don't you think all those posturing and incompetent Conservative politicians might get rather a lot of blame from disappointed Leave voters ?
It depends on how it happens. If labour are seen to openly support a second referendum and it happens they will pay a price in their leave areas
Doubtful, the Tories will pay the price for a second referendum - particularly in those Labour leave areas.
Not if TM is opposed and labour force it through
How many times do we have to say it BigG. If the PM is opposed to something, it isn’t going to happen.
There is no way a referendum happens without Govt legislation.
Although i would give the balance of probabilties to Remain in a 2nd Ref, i don't think it's a slam dunk.
If the leavers can make it about things like the Euro, and EU Army, not to mention Schengen and migration, or things like a future US of E, then that might not be attractive to re-sign up to.
Plus, we have an NHS dividend already awarded from Brexit. "Which hospital wards are you going to close, Remain?"
I don't think people will be keen to see their kids and grand kids going off to spill their blood on the Europe/Russian border on the orders of some failed political from Luxembourg (even though OGH was telling us yesterday that Juncker is apparently widely popular with the British people )
But as the EU becomes a superstate Remaining wasn't a status quo, cake and eat it option either.
And of course if there is another referendum all of this will be aired again - Including the toxic idea of an EU army which isn't just an abstract concept like in 2016 but is now happening...
So instead of a mandate for opting out of ever closer union if Remain had won in 2016, we’ll end up with a mandate for closer union.
If we vote for that, which we may well not. We may seek a status-quo membership.
This is why a 2nd referendum is tricky.
You’re missing the point. If the pro-Brexit side go full on with things like EU defence and the Euro and lose, the default assumptions about popular Euroscepticsm will be shattered.
IF I think being the operative word there. Do you really think the Remainers are going to risk Leave by tying the Euro etc into the debate?
Although i would give the balance of probabilties to Remain in a 2nd Ref, i don't think it's a slam dunk.
If the leavers can make it about things like the Euro, and EU Army, not to mention Schengen and migration, or things like a future US of E, then that might not be attractive to re-sign up to.
Plus, we have an NHS dividend already awarded from Brexit. "Which hospital wards are you going to close, Remain?"
None, we'll just borrow the money for them. Nobody gives a fuck where money comes from.
Another referendum needs a new Act and quite possibly one repealing some existing referendum legislation if the timetable is tight. The Government has no majority in either House and as a second referendum wasn't in the Tory manifesto the Salisbury Convention doesn't apply to the Lord's. Also the sitting PM who controls government business in parliament has said one isn't happening while she is PM. There is also absolutely no time to hold one before the current Brexit date.
The paradox is the only way you could currently get a second referendum would be in response to the collapse of Brexit not Brexit collapsing because of a second referendum. You'd need a genuine sense of national emergency and generous concessions on referendum terms to smooth it's passage with Labour and the Lords.
A second referendum could happen as an amendment to the meaningful vote on the 10th December. The EU have already said they would support a suspension for a referendum and there is enough time before the end of march. Remember the HOL would wave it through
So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
No evidence of that at present. You may be right but you may also be reflecting your own hopes
That's because people think that we're in the process of Leaving the EU.
Now if instead we Remained in the EU don't you think the dynamic would change somewhat ?
And don't you think all those posturing and incompetent Conservative politicians might get rather a lot of blame from disappointed Leave voters ?
It depends on how it happens. If labour are seen to openly support a second referendum and it happens they will pay a price in their leave areas
Doubtful, the Tories will pay the price for a second referendum - particularly in those Labour leave areas.
Not if TM is opposed and labour force it through
How many times do we have to say it BigG. If the PM is opposed to something, it isn’t going to happen.
There is no way a referendum happens without Govt legislation.
I think you're right, but what happens if it gets tacked onto May's bill as an amendment. Does it just kill it ?
I don't think people will be keen to see their kids and grand kids going off to spill their blood on the Europe/Russian border on the orders of some failed political from Luxembourg (even though OGH was telling us yesterday that Juncker is apparently widely popular with the British people )
Do you want to leave NATO?
I'm not overly keen on NATO personally but the the situation is somewhat different as it's an already established body that has been with us since 1949 - That's a very different scenario to the EU setting up a new army...
But as the EU becomes a superstate Remaining wasn't a status quo, cake and eat it option either.
And of course if there is another referendum all of this will be aired again - Including the toxic idea of an EU army which isn't just an abstract concept like in 2016 but is now happening...
So instead of a mandate for opting out of ever closer union if Remain had won in 2016, we’ll end up with a mandate for closer union.
If we vote for that, which we may well not. We may seek a status-quo membership.
This is why a 2nd referendum is tricky.
You’re missing the point. If the pro-Brexit side go full on with things like EU defence and the Euro and lose, the default assumptions about popular Euroscepticsm will be shattered.
IF I think being the operative word there. Do you really think the Remainers are going to risk Leave by tying the Euro etc into the debate?
But as the EU becomes a superstate Remaining wasn't a status quo, cake and eat it option either.
And of course if there is another referendum all of this will be aired again - Including the toxic idea of an EU army which isn't just an abstract concept like in 2016 but is now happening...
So instead of a mandate for opting out of ever closer union if Remain had won in 2016, we’ll end up with a mandate for closer union.
If we vote for that, which we may well not. We may seek a status-quo membership.
This is why a 2nd referendum is tricky.
You’re missing the point. If the pro-Brexit side go full on with things like EU defence and the Euro and lose, the default assumptions about popular Euroscepticsm will be shattered.
IF I think being the operative word there. Do you really think the Remainers are going to risk Leave by tying the Euro etc into the debate?
No, I expect Leavers to do it.
Yes, becuase they know it's a weapon for them.
And I assume Remainers will deny it'll sign us up for the Euro yes?
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
No evidence of that at present. You may be right but you may also be reflecting your own hopes
That's because people think that we're in the process of Leaving the EU.
Now if instead we Remained in the EU don't you think the dynamic would change somewhat ?
And don't you think all those posturing and incompetent Conservative politicians might get rather a lot of blame from disappointed Leave voters ?
It depends on how it happens. If labour are seen to openly support a second referendum and it happens they will pay a price in their leave areas
Doubtful, the Tories will pay the price for a second referendum - particularly in those Labour leave areas.
Not if TM is opposed and labour force it through
How many times do we have to say it BigG. If the PM is opposed to something, it isn’t going to happen.
There is no way a referendum happens without Govt legislation.
I think you're right, but what happens if it gets tacked onto May's bill as an amendment. Does it just kill it ?
Clerk of the house has confirmed that amendments to the ‘meaningful vote’ are meaningless, according to newsnight last night.
I'm not overly keen on NATO personally but the the situation is somewhat different as it's an already established body that has been with us since 1949 - That's a very different scenario to the EU setting up a new army...
British interests would be far better served in an EU structure than NATO because a) it wouldn't be absolutely dominated US interests and b) it wouldn't be geographically hobbled by NATO Article 6.
If you're a fan of Global Britain, and why wouldn't you be, you should be pushing hard for an EU army.
Also, the UK is going to participate in it whether we are in the EU or not. The savings in defence expenditure that would come with collaboration are just too tempting for tories.
So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
No evidence of that at present. You may be right but you may also be reflecting your own hopes
That's because people think that we're in the process of Leaving the EU.
Now if instead we Remained in the EU don't you think the dynamic would change somewhat ?
And don't you think all those posturing and incompetent Conservative politicians might get rather a lot of blame from disappointed Leave voters ?
It depends on how it happens. If labour are seen to openly support a second referendum and it happens they will pay a price in their leave areas
Doubtful, the Tories will pay the price for a second referendum - particularly in those Labour leave areas.
Not if TM is opposed and labour force it through
How many times do we have to say it BigG. If the PM is opposed to something, it isn’t going to happen.
There is no way a referendum happens without Govt legislation.
Sorry but it does if an opposition amendment passes in the meaningful vote and it then passes in the substantive vote
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the.
No evidence of that at present. You may be right but you may also be reflecting your own hopes
That's because people think that we're in the process of Leaving the EU.
Now if instead we Remained in the EU don't you think the dynamic would change somewhat ?
And don't you think all those posturing and incompetent Conservative politicians might get rather a lot of blame from disappointed Leave voters ?
It depends on how it happens. If labour are seen to openly support a second referendum and it happens they will pay a price in their leave areas
Doubtful, the Tories will pay the price for a second referendum - particularly in those Labour leave areas.
Not if TM is opposed and labour force it through
How many times do we have to say it BigG. If the PM is opposed to something, it isn’t going to happen.
There is no way a referendum happens without Govt legislation.
I think you're right, but what happens if it gets tacked onto May's bill as an amendment. Does it just kill it ?
Clerk of the house has confirmed that amendments to the ‘meaningful vote’ are meaningless, according to newsnight last night.
And if there is any ambiguity, yep, I think the Govt will kill the bill and blame no deal on squabbling politicians.
So Raab demonstrating his lack of political antennae. Stating remain is better than the deal is a gift to remainers and is going to be thrown back at him at every interview and debate in the HOC
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
No evidence of that at present. You may be right but you may also be reflecting your own hopes
That's because people think that we're in the process of Leaving the EU.
Now if instead we Remained in the EU don't you think the dynamic would change somewhat ?
And don't you think all those posturing and incompetent Conservative politicians might get rather a lot of blame from disappointed Leave voters ?
It depends on how it happens. If labour are seen to openly support a second referendum and it happens they will pay a price in their leave areas
Doubtful, the Tories will pay the price for a second referendum - particularly in those Labour leave areas.
Not if TM is opposed and labour force it through
How many times do we have to say it BigG. If the PM is opposed to something, it isn’t going to happen.
There is no way a referendum happens without Govt legislation.
Sorry but it does if an opposition amendment passes in the meaningful vote and it then passes in the substantive vote
Although i would give the balance of probabilties to Remain in a 2nd Ref, i don't think it's a slam dunk.
If the leavers can make it about things like the Euro, and EU Army, not to mention Schengen and migration, or things like a future US of E, then that might not be attractive to re-sign up to.
Plus, we have an NHS dividend already awarded from Brexit. "Which hospital wards are you going to close, Remain?"
None, we'll just borrow the money for them. Nobody gives a fuck where money comes from.
Mcdonnel has already committed to not borrow for day to day expenditure.
If we remain, we remain. Had we voted for Remain, I would have accepted the result. But now we voted for Leave, we must do so.
As wasn't said in "The Godfather" Tell Juncker and Barnier it's personal now, it's no longer business.
The process was wrong from the start and Cameron has to shoulder the blame for that.
Leaving the EU is a momentous decision. A simple majority referendum that committed us to a course of action before we knew what that course of action actually was is looking increasingly foolish in hindsight.
The process has resulted in us in having to leave in order to honour the vote whilst neither method of actually leaving is likely to carry majority support. There should always have been a second vote to ratify the deal built into the process.
As it is we are going to take a giant step with the majority of the country opposed to it on the day it happens. That is not the fault of the leavers as they didn't make the rules but it will not be an auspicious start
Although i would give the balance of probabilties to Remain in a 2nd Ref, i don't think it's a slam dunk.
If the leavers can make it about things like the Euro, and EU Army, not to mention Schengen and migration, or things like a future US of E, then that might not be attractive to re-sign up to.
Plus, we have an NHS dividend already awarded from Brexit. "Which hospital wards are you going to close, Remain?"
None, we'll just borrow the money for them. Nobody gives a fuck where money comes from.
Mcdonnel has already committed to not borrow for day to day expenditure.
I like Stewart and he could be a contender buy I think May stays for now.
He has somehow marketed his disastrous suzerainty in Iraq as some sort of shining triumph so he's at least got some of the skills needed for high office.
Genuine question: what was the issue with his time in Iraq?
His job was to mediate between the occupying forces and the tribal structure while espousing the joys of participatory democracy. By the time he was evacuated from his besieged compound the province was in civil war and the British had utterly lost control. Does that sound like a job well done?
The British waltzed into Basra with a great deal of hubris about how we were the masters of counter insurgency and police action. We then got soundly defeated both militarily and diplomatically. Nobody involved, and I include myself, deserves an iota of credit.
You served. I give you more than an iota of credit for that.
Unfortunately I have come to realise that although Dura Ace served he does use that to support a lot of dubious claims. One good example were his comments on NATO forces currently in Somalia a couple of days ago. I took the opportunity to have a chat with a friend of mine who has just come back from Somalia 2 days ago, serving with the EU mission there. He confirmed what I thought which is that Dura Ace is 'mistaken' (although that wasn't quite the phrase he used).
Another referendum needs a new Act and quite possibly one repealing some existing referendum legislation if the timetable is tight. The Government has no majority in either House and as a second referendum wasn't in the Tory manifesto the Salisbury Convention doesn't apply to the Lord's. Also the sitting PM who controls government business in parliament has said one isn't happening while she is PM. There is also absolutely no time to hold one before the current Brexit date.
The paradox is the only way you could currently get a second referendum would be in response to the collapse of Brexit not Brexit collapsing because of a second referendum. You'd need a genuine sense of national emergency and generous concessions on referendum terms to smooth it's passage with Labour and the Lords.
A second referendum could happen as an amendment to the meaningful vote on the 10th December. The EU have already said they would support a suspension for a referendum and there is enough time before the end of march. Remember the HOL would wave it through
MPs who oppose Brexit should just vote to revoke A50, and not try hiding behind the public.
People like Dominic Grieve, Sarah Wollaston, and their counterparts on the opposition benches have always wanted a pretext to prevent Brexit, and the insane ERG are giving them that pretext.
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
No evidence of that at present. You may be right but you may also be reflecting your own hopes
That's because people think that we're in the process of Leaving the EU.
Now if instead we Remained in the EU don't you think the dynamic would change somewhat ?
And don't you think all those posturing and incompetent Conservative politicians might get rather a lot of blame from disappointed Leave voters ?
It depends on how it happens. If labour are seen to openly support a second referendum and it happens they will pay a price in their leave areas
Doubtful, the Tories will pay the price for a second referendum - particularly in those Labour leave areas.
Not if TM is opposed and labour force it through
How many times do we have to say it BigG. If the PM is opposed to something, it isn’t going to happen.
There is no way a referendum happens without Govt legislation.
I think you're right, but what happens if it gets tacked onto May's bill as an amendment. Does it just kill it ?
Clerk of the house has confirmed that amendments to the ‘meaningful vote’ are meaningless, according to newsnight last night.
I find that hard to believe. What is the point of the votes
Another referendum needs a new Act and quite possibly one repealing some existing referendum legislation if the timetable is tight. The Government has no majority in either House and as a second referendum wasn't in the Tory manifesto the Salisbury Convention doesn't apply to the Lord's. Also the sitting PM who controls government business in parliament has said one isn't happening while she is PM. There is also absolutely no time to hold one before the current Brexit date.
The paradox is the only way you could currently get a second referendum would be in response to the collapse of Brexit not Brexit collapsing because of a second referendum. You'd need a genuine sense of national emergency and generous concessions on referendum terms to smooth it's passage with Labour and the Lords.
A second referendum could happen as an amendment to the meaningful vote on the 10th December. The EU have already said they would support a suspension for a referendum and there is enough time before the end of march. Remember the HOL would wave it through
The meaningful vote isn't new legislation. You can't add a referendum to it.
I find that hard to believe. What is the point of the votes
Indicates the will of parliament - so shows cards for the future; also effectively acts as a wrecking amendment. Seeing as a 2nd ref won't get support from the payroll nor the ERG, nor a whole bunch of Labour leavers I doubt it passes anyway. DUP votes it down too.
I'm not overly keen on NATO personally but the the situation is somewhat different as it's an already established body that has been with us since 1949 - That's a very different scenario to the EU setting up a new army...
British interests would be far better served in an EU structure than NATO because a) it wouldn't be absolutely dominated US interests and b) it wouldn't be geographically hobbled by NATO Article 6.
If you're a fan of Global Britain, and why wouldn't you be, you should be pushing hard for an EU army.
Also, the UK is going to participate in it whether we are in the EU or not. The savings in defence expenditure that would come with collaboration are just too tempting for tories.
I think you'll have a really, really hard time selling the EU army on the doorsteps of the UK in any further referendum but we shall see...
If we remain, we remain. Had we voted for Remain, I would have accepted the result. But now we voted for Leave, we must do so.
As wasn't said in "The Godfather" Tell Juncker and Barnier it's personal now, it's no longer business.
The process was wrong from the start and Cameron has to shoulder the blame for that.
Leaving the EU is a momentous decision. A simple majority referendum that committed us to a course of action before we knew what that course of action actually was is looking increasingly foolish in hindsight.
The process has resulted us in having to leave to honour the vote whilst neither method of actually leaving is likely to carry majority support. There should always have been a second vote to ratify the deal built into the process.
As it is we are going to take a giant step with the majority of the country opposed to it on the day it happens.
I don't think the size of the vote to Leave is the problem. The problem is that there is a majority in the Commons who oppose Brexit, while the minority who support it are divided among themselves.
I don't think Brexit will happen unless/until a government wins an election that actually favours it and has a plan to go about it.
My own view is that the Conservative leadership is unlikely to go to someone who openly wants it, or is heavily suspected to want it, especially over a long period of time. Hence I doubt it'll go to Boris, JRM, Davis, Gove etc.
This winnows out the field a little. Stewart has shown himself to be loyal, to be willing to argue the government's case, and also has a little highbrow media attention and an interesting backstory. These may all be to his advantage.
My biggest question is how liked and respected he is amongst his fellow Conservative MPs.
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
They are playing a longer game - Remaining leads to PM Corbyn.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Why Corbyn
Remember how many current Conservative voters were Leavers.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
Depends on how remain happens. If the HOC brings it about with labour playing a substantial role, the leave supporters in their areas will not be impressed either
At the moment voters are seeing Conservatives criticizing and posturing so it will be the Conservatives who get the blame.
No evidence of that at present. You may be right but you may also be reflecting your own hopes
?
It depends on how it happens. If labour are seen to openly support a second referendum and it happens they will pay a price in their leave areas
Doubtful, the Tories will pay the price for a second referendum - particularly in those Labour leave areas.
Not if TM is opposed and labour force it through
How many times do we have to say it BigG. If the PM is opposed to something, it isn’t going to happen.
There is no way a referendum happens without Govt legislation.
I think you're right, but what happens if it gets tacked onto May's bill as an amendment. Does it just kill it ?
Clerk of the house has confirmed that amendments to the ‘meaningful vote’ are meaningless, according to newsnight last night.
I find that hard to believe. What is the point of the votes
Pretty sure the deal is take it or leave it is the point. MP's have no right to be back-seat drivers on it as they aren't directly dealing with the EU.
I'm not overly keen on NATO personally but the the situation is somewhat different as it's an already established body that has been with us since 1949 - That's a very different scenario to the EU setting up a new army...
British interests would be far better served in an EU structure than NATO because a) it wouldn't be absolutely dominated US interests and b) it wouldn't be geographically hobbled by NATO Article 6.
If you're a fan of Global Britain, and why wouldn't you be, you should be pushing hard for an EU army.
Also, the UK is going to participate in it whether we are in the EU or not. The savings in defence expenditure that would come with collaboration are just too tempting for tories.
And presumably as the US is to NATO, the UK would be to an EU military association of whatever formality, should it transpire.
Isn't a big issue for MPs that they've become so used to - that normally if a vote is voted down it results in nothing happening and/or a can being kicked down the road ?
Comments
I thought the general yardstick was that if it pissed off both sides in a dispute it was probably fair. Why should it be any different for Brexit?
It's very early days and the public have yet to really catch up - of course the "we're tired with Brexit so let's get on with it" tendency will no doubt proliferate but saying that is not supporting the Prime Minister's deal - it's simply saying something has to be resolved.
If a referendum was held now we would know a lot more.
Given she's made a pig's ear of our relationship with the EU once, I expect she would maintain a dignified silence. Remain would be hoping so....
If it's perceived as a step along the road, it might be acceptable to more Leavers, and it will be a question of do you trust Mrs May? I suspect that's why female voters are more likely to answer yes.
Remain is no longer acceptable to many because it represents a triumph for Juncker et al, and let's face it, a kick in the balls for the UK. Bringing logic into this now misses the point.
https://twitter.com/mrbensellers/status/1065699868914712579?s=21
If we are discussing potential leaders, I have to say though that as someone from the other side of the political spectrum I have been impressed with Raab in much the same terms - i.e. calm and effective handling of questioning, and an interesting back story in a real job that dates back to involvement in the Oslo Peace accords. He also seems to have handled himself well since his resignation, being effective in making the case against May's deal.
It is a shame that Rees-Mogg chose to explicitly back Johnson, who doesn't have those qualities.
If we remain, we remain. Had we voted for Remain, I would have accepted the result. But now we voted for Leave, we must do so.
As wasn't said in "The Godfather" Tell Juncker and Barnier it's personal now, it's no longer business.
I might have missed something, who aligned with him? He has been right about some things, but the EDL and it’s aossociated people are unpredictable and will quickly eat anyone who takes on their cause.
Tommy Robinson is a name recognised by many many youngsters though due to social media. Robinson very easily provokes the establishment to treat him how he wants to. His reporting of a “sentancing hearing” of a case that had reporting restrictions as much for “community sensitivities” as for justice, resulting in his summary arrest and unlawful detention does nothing but help his case.
Utter madness for UKIP to get caught up with him, but let’s hope that Trumpism style populism can’t enthuse the youth who are right leaning the same way that Corbyn has on the left.
Youngsters often see things in black and white...
Now if instead we Remained in the EU don't you think the dynamic would change somewhat ?
And don't you think all those posturing and incompetent Conservative politicians might get rather a lot of blame from disappointed Leave voters ?
Indeed the referendum in those circumstances would not be as political.
Remainers and leavers are in both parties
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46305921
What's your evidence it was more for 'community sensitives' than justice? Wasn't there other cases that might be prejudiced as well?
And of course if there is another referendum all of this will be aired again - Including the toxic idea of an EU army which isn't just an abstract concept like in 2016 but is now happening...
I suspect the deal would edge it as it is the most likely 2nd choice for both parties.
Hey xx xx
xx xx xx xx yyy
Hey xx xx
xx xx xx xx yyy
Makes for a good one at events and so forth. As an example, Jimmy Anderson fits the bill for England in the cricket here.
If the leavers can make it about things like the Euro, and EU Army, not to mention Schengen and migration, or things like a future US of E, then that might not be attractive to re-sign up to.
The paradox is the only way you could currently get a second referendum would be in response to the collapse of Brexit not Brexit collapsing because of a second referendum. You'd need a genuine sense of national emergency and generous concessions on referendum terms to smooth it's passage with Labour and the Lords.
This is why a 2nd referendum is tricky.
I doubt the situation will have massively changed should there be another referendum on the issue especially if you are right and we will now have to sign up for "ever closer union" including the EU army.
I don't think people will be keen to see their kids and grand kids going off to spill their blood on the Europe/Russian border on the orders of some failed political from Luxembourg (even though OGH was telling us yesterday that Juncker is apparently widely popular with the British people
But on another level it's terribly depressing to see the country mismanaged so badly that it is tearing itself apart in this way. It will take many years to repair the damage, and it could get a lot worse before it gets better.
First preference:
No deal 40%
Deal 20%
Remain 40%
So a clear win for Leave! Well, no, just wait a minute...
After 'Deal' votes redistributed:
No deal 45%
Remain 55%
Uproar!
There is no way a referendum happens without Govt legislation.
And I assume Remainers will deny it'll sign us up for the Euro yes?
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/23/peoples-vote-brexit-mps-second-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
If you're a fan of Global Britain, and why wouldn't you be, you should be pushing hard for an EU army.
Also, the UK is going to participate in it whether we are in the EU or not. The savings in defence expenditure that would come with collaboration are just too tempting for tories.
That would be like doing open heart surgery with a plastic fork.
Leaving the EU is a momentous decision. A simple majority referendum that committed us to a course of action before we knew what that course of action actually was is looking increasingly foolish in hindsight.
The process has resulted in us in having to leave in order to honour the vote whilst neither method of actually leaving is likely to carry majority support. There should always have been a second vote to ratify the deal built into the process.
As it is we are going to take a giant step with the majority of the country opposed to it on the day it happens. That is not the fault of the leavers as they didn't make the rules but it will not be an auspicious start
People like Dominic Grieve, Sarah Wollaston, and their counterparts on the opposition benches have always wanted a pretext to prevent Brexit, and the insane ERG are giving them that pretext.
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2018/11/lord-ashcroft-my-brexit-poll-its-good-for-may-but-bad-for-her-deal.html
I don't think Brexit will happen unless/until a government wins an election that actually favours it and has a plan to go about it.
This winnows out the field a little. Stewart has shown himself to be loyal, to be willing to argue the government's case, and also has a little highbrow media attention and an interesting backstory. These may all be to his advantage.
My biggest question is how liked and respected he is amongst his fellow Conservative MPs.
https://twitter.com/AaronBell80/status/1065919024746369025
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/23/tommy-robinson-named-adviser-ukip-leader-amid-debate-partys/