Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This might be the moment for Rory Stewart – the old Etonian of
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This might be the moment for Rory Stewart – the old Etonian of whom great things were predicted even before he became an MP
Great things were predicted for Rory Stewart after his selection as CON candidate ahead of GE2010 for the safe seat of Penrith. He attracted an enormous amount of coverage and in December 2009 Ladbrokes made him the 12/1 fourth favourite to succeed Cameron as CON leader.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I genuinely think now there is a very real possibility of Farage and Boris coming out for a Second Referendum on No Deal Vs Remain. And we never did discover what they were discussing at that Restaurant did we ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46225696/rory-stewart-apologises-after-making-up-brexit-stat
Rory Stewart has an impressive cv but, fairly or unfairly, probably the latter, he comes over like a supply teacher, and the fashions for soldiers and Etonians might be on the wane. If he shows signs of having engaged a media consultant (it worked for Jeremy Corbyn) however, that might be the time to pile in.
He would certainly be a prime contender for a future Foreign, Defence or International Development Secretary
Worth listening to this programme about him a few years after he first became an MP, before the 2015 election, I think. Focuses mostly on his work in Cumbria and very interesting on the unsung work done by many MPs.
The conclusion is interesting in light of this thread. Essentially says that without some big beast to sponsor him he won’t get promoted.
If telling fibs during interviews was the test your beloved leader would be in loads of trouble. See the porkies he told Jon Snow about when he stopped giving interviews to Press TV, for instance.
That said, I don't rate him and now is definitely not his time.
I'll always remember his comment about some of his constituents still holding their trousers up with twine!
ERG must be one of the most chaotic and clueless group of politicians ever sitting in the HOC
I am content with TM deal but perfectly happy for ERG to turn the narrative to remain and see their dream disappear for a generation
That said I cannot envisage May calling a referendum without her deal being on the ballot paper - the struggle will be what is up against it.
I'm changing my view somewhat. I'm beginning to think Brexit is actually unworkable, and not just full of contradictions and very crap.
He is simply a useful idiot.
And that doesn't worry the extreme Brexiteers - they're quite happy to trash the economy if its the only route to achieving Libertarian Pirate Island.
Rory the Tory should not be an exception even if he thinks he might be rather good at it
When Cameron started us down this path in 2013 it was partly to deal with the threat of a slow leak of Conservative support to UKIP but when he won the 2015 GE (which I think was as much a surprise to him as it was to me) he saw an opportunity to use his personal popularity to take the issue and put it in front of the electorate and the people would trust him on this as they had at the GE. Had Remain won by 2:1 I doubt the issue would have seriously risen again within the Conservative Party - UKIP would have faded to the margins and been talked about as often as Eagles talks about AV.
But it wasn't and the result amplified the long existing division within the Conservative Party and everything that has happened since then and especially in the last month has been the result of not just five years but 30 years of internal division within your Party.
The Conservative Party, once the most pro-EU of the three parties, is now the most anti-EU (as distinct from anti-European which it isn't) and that journey has left the divisions unresolved. Yes, they can and were masked in Opposition after 1997 because frankly no one was interested in what the Conservatives under Hague, IDS and Howard said.
I suppose the Conservative hope is once we actually leave the EU all this will go away and quieten it but I'm far less convinced.
The British waltzed into Basra with a great deal of hubris about how we were the masters of counter insurgency and police action. We then got soundly defeated both militarily and diplomatically. Nobody involved, and I include myself, deserves an iota of credit.
Problem is they've marched up to the top of their hill, and now they have to die on it.
I do wonder if the deal will end up passing the Commons. At the moment, sitting on the 6.5 for a second referendum.
We can extend it to GE results. If Labour sweep to power in 2022, you can always claim that the people have changed their minds within days - well before the Labour government is ensconced.
Then you can claim that it's illegitimate because the manifesto didn't take into account the views of those who voted for another party - a clear majority in this instance. You could then claim they didn't vote to make the country poorer and they didn't understand what a Labour government meant.
Finally, after about 18 months to two years, the period when sitting governments usually lose popularity, you can claim again that the nation has changed its mind and therefore we should have another general election immediately.
Edit: And how would a second referendum help, even if it showed a small majority for Remain (assuming it was even on the ballot paper)?
Or similar.
He has improved and developed as an MP and now minister. Can he become the next leader ? Doubtful but I'm not laying him at 1-100 either.
Now how many of those will be lost if a Conservative government fails to Leave the EU.
He and I didn't talk about politics so this was news to me. He might yet be right though.
Labour do not seem to be cutting through and Corbyn's response at the dispatch box was really poor.
It does look like ERG are going to lose their prize but I am not convinced labour will gain much credit over this
In that time in Opposition, you can a) talk in circles about Europe and b) consider how much talking about Europe prevented you from doing what your Party is supposed to be about - improving the lives of the citizens of the United Kingdom.
May's plan gets through, I think we have something like a 2015 redux in the polls. UKIP rises in the polling but the Tories ultimtely win.
OT pleasantly surprised by Dianne Abbott on R4 this morning on 'should we return antiquities to Africa?' - instead of the "imperialism is a disgrace we should be ashamed and send it all back" I was expecting a much more thoughtful reflection on the pros & cons - making the point that sometimes this is better left to specialists than politicians and that only about 5% of the British Museum's collection is actually on display.
Other politicians could learn from that ...
Your dad might be right. With age comes wisdom. The people who run the country - no longer the media consumers but the media producer - won't allow their power to be reduced.
As Marshall McLuhan said in the 1960s, the medium is the message.
They might even be able to shut down the NHS and welfare state if Corbyn completely bankrupted Britain.
Remember Leave only scraped 52% with single market backers, 'easiest deal in history' believers and immigration haters and Singapore lovers all in its tent
As far as your last paragraph is concerned you should have noticed how I have called out ERG - they do not represent me anymore than Corbynistas represent the majority of labour mps
If my party was taken over by UKIP/ ERG it would not be my party anymore
A fresh referendum campaign would also be poisonous but in my judgement marginally less poisonous.
Ted Heath might have had some advice on asking the voters who governs Britain....
One or two of us have been punting on Rory for some time.
And then it is just a matter of time before it becomes "best of three" - and dominates domestic politics. As the EU will quickly spot.
God knows why they would want us "back for a bit".
However, the options are critical. If it's May's rubbish deal versus Remain, I maintain that Remain will win handily.
If it's Leave (with no deal) versus Remain, that'll be tighter.
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1065690690900897792