Labour voter on QT saying if Labour will not get behind a second referendum they have to back May's Deal
Party policy, as made by Conference, is to aim for a GE. Only when that fails do they move to 2nd ref. What someone on QT thinks is irrelevant. Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought. Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
So May could win it on a 2nd or 3rd attempt then
She won't get the chance. We've got to have at least one vote but she won't get another. Not getting the 48 letters us handy for the opponents now. Once the deal fails if she doesn't go I'd bet she will lose a vote of no confidence then. Her most notable cabinet members have either made public or leaked they have had issues, so I doubt they will support her at this stage.
No, over 200 Tory MPs out of 318 back her deal and most of those firmly oppose No Deal
Right. But since her deal will still fail and they don't want no deal they'll have to pick a leader promising new deal. The cabinet plotters are clearly preparing for that time.
In a way it's reassuring to know it's not only in Britain are ignorant incompetents, but it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the future of civilization.
Edit: anyway, he can't 'veto Brexit.' That's like these idiots talking about unilaterally withdrawing A50. I think he means he will refuse to endorse the withdrawal agreement.
Also potential vote against the new whizzy bang fantastico new trade deal in 2 years time.
AIUI individual countries don't necessarily get a vote on trade deals if the deal just involves powers reserved to Brussels - I think the Japan deal was structured like that.
So a politician posturing about Brexit without knowing what's really going on - there's a first.
FFS if she could see another way through the backstop she'd certainly have used it by now and saved all this headache. Either it's not possible or she won't do it. They clearly don't believe it's not possible so they know what they have to do if she won't. Please can they just STFU if they are unwilling to do what that requires, not stay in place but refuse to defend collective policy.
Good night all. Pleasant dreams to remainers, brexit is nearly over now. A few more months of wasted effort and you could have won the prize.
"Brexit has cost you your strength! Victory has defeated you!"
Labour voter on QT saying if Labour will not get behind a second referendum they have to back May's Deal
Party policy, as made by Conference, is to aim for a GE. Only when that fails do they move to 2nd ref. What someone on QT thinks is irrelevant. Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought. Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
So May could win it on a 2nd or 3rd attempt then
She won't get the chance. We've got to have at least one vote but she won't get another. Not getting the 48 letters us handy for the opponents now. Once the deal fails if she doesn't go I'd bet she will lose a vote of no confidence then. Her most notable cabinet members have either made public or leaked they have had issues, so I doubt they will support her at this stage.
No, over 200 Tory MPs out of 318 back her deal and most of those firmly oppose No Deal
Right. But since her deal will still fail and they don't want no deal they'll have to pick a leader promising new deal. The cabinet plotters are clearly preparing for that time.
No, as the EU have made unequivocally clear there will be no new deal.
So the choice is either May's deal, no deal, or EUref2 and Remain or permanent Single Market and Customs Union.
Labour voter on QT saying if Labour will not get behind a second referendum they have to back May's Deal
Party policy, as made by Conference, is to aim for a GE. Only when that fails do they move to 2nd ref. What someone on QT thinks is irrelevant. Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought. Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
I don't see how this works. I don't know why Tory mps voting against in droves would definitely vote against a referendum, or renegotiating after for some reason not ditching May, and then suddenly support the deal. If they don't want no deal the other options prevent it and don't include doing a u turn. Similarly I dont see why labour would vote for or abstain even if or her options failed. They can just keep voting it down with the ERG.
I'm attempting to construct a narrative that makes sense. To keep me sane in fraught times. You may equally be right. But. That Labour prefer the following in order. 1 GE 2 2nd referendum. 3 Mays deal. 4 And a long way last No Deal. Ought to be self evident. Of course, the further we move down those options, the less discipline will hold. Although, obviously, as you eliminate the options, what the Conservatives and of course, the DUP, do will constrict the options. Change of PM throwing everything up in the air, at any point of that timeline of course.
Labour voter on QT saying if Labour will not get behind a second referendum they have to back May's Deal
Party policy, as made by Conference, is to aim for a GE. Only when that fails do they move to 2nd ref. What someone on QT thinks is irrelevant. Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought. Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
So May could win it on a 2nd or 3rd attempt then
She won't get the chance. We've got to have at least one vote but she won't get another. Not getting the 48 letters us handy for the opponents now. Once the deal fails if she doesn't go I'd bet she will lose a vote of no confidence then. Her most notable cabinet members have either made public or leaked they have had issues, so I doubt they will support her at this stage.
No, over 200 Tory MPs out of 318 back her deal and most of those firmly oppose No Deal
Right. But since her deal will still fail and they don't want no deal they'll have to pick a leader promising new deal. The cabinet plotters are clearly preparing for that time.
No, as the EU have made unequivocally clear there will be no new deal.
So the choice is either May's deal, no deal, or Remain or permanent Single Market and Customs Union.
There is no alternative
Tory MPs don't believe that in sufficient numbers. If they did there would be fewer of them voting her deal down.
So for Mays survival it doesn't matter if there is no alternative, enough of them think otherwise. Even some who back the deal. It means there's no point in them trying the same deal again.
On topic I'm a politics junkie, policy sink and Brexit is more important to me than any political issue in my life time. But even I had a media black out today. I just have pain thresholds. I'm waiting to see what is actually agreed by EUCO on Sunday and in the meantime will read the full political declaration unfiltered. If I feel like that being as unrepresentative of the British public as possible then how much of this is filtering through to ' ordinary ' members of the British public ?
This is of course May's biggest strength and biggest weakness. On the one hand it gives huge power to front pages like the Sun's. Brexit voters who feel betrayed by modernity will happily take the Sun's off the shelf take that they will indeed remain betrayed. On the other hand many voters just want this to be over. And don't care what's in May's deal as long as it an outcome. An End.
Labour voter on QT saying if Labour will not get behind a second referendum they have to back May's Deal
Party policy, as made by Conference, is to aim for a GE. Only when that fails do they move to 2nd ref. What someone on QT thinks is irrelevant. Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought. Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
It is disgusting is what it is.
Vote it down over principle would be ok
Voting it down and risking what we keep being told is a huge recession and high unemployment, unemployment which will hit working class the hardest for a chance at power is contemptible
What I find ironic is if they get in and try their economic policies we will be far, far worse off than we would be by a bad brexit.
But they won't vote it down finally. The only ones with a No Deal preferred end state (except Hoey) are on the government benches. The rest is politics. If the Tories can't get their own to support it, why should the Opposition?
Labour voter on QT saying if Labour will not get behind a second referendum they have to back May's Deal
Party policy, as made by Conference, is to aim for a GE. Only when that fails do they move to 2nd ref. What someone on QT thinks is irrelevant. Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought. Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
So May could win it on a 2nd or 3rd attempt then
She won't get the chance. We've got to have at least one vote but she won't get another. Not getting the 48 letters us handy for the opponents now. Once the deal fails if she doesn't go I'd bet she will lose a vote of no confidence then. Her most notable cabinet members have either made public or leaked they have had issues, so I doubt they will support her at this stage.
No, over 200 Tory MPs out of 318 back her deal and most of those firmly oppose No Deal
Right. But since her deal will still fail and they don't want no deal they'll have to pick a leader promising new deal. The cabinet plotters are clearly preparing for that time.
No, as the EU have made unequivocally clear there will be no new deal.
So the choice is either May's deal, no deal, or Remain or permanent Single Market and Customs Union.
There is no alternative
Tory MPs don't believe that in sufficient numbers. If they did there would be fewer of them voting her deal down.
So for Mays survival it doesn't matter if there is no alternative, enough of them think otherwise. Even some who back the deal. It means there's no point in them trying the same deal again.
They do. Hence well over 2/3 of Tory MPs still back May's Deal. There is no alternative deal to May's deal other than even more BINO or Euref2.
For May's survival that is easily enough to ensure she sees off a VONC given she only needs to win by 1
Even 3 years ago I bought a copy of the Sun every 6 months or so out of respect for journalism and to see how the other side though. Now I will laugh when the last print edition is published. Almost no other force in UK society has done more to get us into this message, then when it finally gets what it wants , it runs away and defaults to a betrayal narrative. They are beneath contempt.
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
None comparable to the Napoleonic Wars or WW1 and WW11 in terms of cross European impact, even the Franco-Prussian War was 60 years after 1815, not 20 years later like WW11 after WW1
You wrote "major war" above: the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century
Even the Mexican French War had 45,000 dead compared to 3 million killed in the Napoleonic Wars and 9 million in World War 1 and 24 million World War 11
Still a major war - it lasted 6 years! And Britain and Spain were involved, albeit briefly.
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
None comparable to the Napoleonic Wars or WW1 and WW11 in terms of cross European impact, even the Franco-Prussian War was 60 years after 1815, not 20 years later like WW11 after WW1
You wrote "major war" above: the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century
Even the Mexican French War had 45,000 dead compared to 3 million killed in the Napoleonic Wars and 9 million in World War 1 and 24 million World War 11
Still a major war - it lasted 6 years! And Britain and Spain were involved, albeit briefly.
No it was not a major war anywhere near comparable to the Napoleonic Wars or WW1 and WW2 and in any case as it was not a European War it is irrelevant to the original point on the consequences of the Congress of Vienna and the Treaty of Versailles
On topic I'm a politics junkie, policy sink and Brexit is more important to me than any political issue in my life time. But even I had a media black out today. I just have pain thresholds. I'm waiting to see what is actually agreed by EUCO on Sunday and in the meantime will read the full political declaration unfiltered. If I feel like that being as unrepresentative of the British public as possible then how much of this is filtering through to ' ordinary ' members of the British public ?
This is of course May's biggest strength and biggest weakness. On the one hand it gives huge power to front pages like the Sun's. Brexit voters who feel betrayed by modernity will happily take the Sun's off the shelf take that they will indeed remain betrayed. On the other hand many voters just want this to be over. And don't care what's in May's deal as long as it an outcome. An End.
Except it won't be an end. The end of the beginning. This has years, probably decades to run. Voters have no concept of that.
Re: the substance of Corporeal's great piece it sums up for me why I now have Theresa May so much. She was uniquely placed just after taking over to recalibrate expectations and bring soft Remainers in. Instead 2 + years of sub UKIP type shrieking followed by inevitable capitulation to reality. She deserves what's coming to her. I hope even at this stage she suffers the indignity of an involuntary and premature ejection from Downing St. She deserves it.
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
None comparable to the Napoleonic Wars or WW1 and WW11 in terms of cross European impact, even the Franco-Prussian War was 60 years after 1815, not 20 years later like WW11 after WW1
You wrote "major war" above: the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century
Even the Mexican French War had 45,000 dead compared to 3 million killed in the Napoleonic Wars and 9 million in World War 1 and 24 million World War 11
Still a major war - it lasted 6 years! And Britain and Spain were involved, albeit briefly.
No it was not a major war anywhere near comparable to the Napoleonic Wars or WW1 and WW2 and in any case as it was not a European War it is irrelevant to the original point on the consequences of the Congress of Vienna and the Treaty of Versailles
You didn't mention Europe in your post: the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century
Major wars the French were involved in included Crimea, Austro-French, Mexican War and Franco-Prussian War, all by 1871.
Trevor Phillips despite being a Labour member says Clive Lewis 'peddling a fantasy' by saying Corbyn will get another Deal, it will be this Deal or No Deal
They may both be right. Of course Corbyn can get another deal. Theresa May's deal is different now from last week. Whether Corbyn's would be significantly different rather than just tweaked a bit is the question on the side of the bus.
Re: the substance of Corporeal's great piece it sums up for me why I now have Theresa May so much. She was uniquely placed just after taking over to recalibrate expectations and bring soft Remainers in. Instead 2 + years of sub UKIP type shrieking followed by inevitable capitulation to reality. She deserves what's coming to her. I hope even at this stage she suffers the indignity of an involuntary and premature ejection from Downing St. She deserves it.
May has behaved with dignity throughout while self absorbed fanatical Remainers have tried to overturn the referendum result from the start and self absorbed fanatical Leavers have refused to compromise on anything but demanded the purest of Brexits no matter the economic cost and damage to the Union.
The fact she still polls ahead of Corbyn and all her Tory rivals is proof to the fact most voters think she is putting the country, not her self interest, first
Re: the substance of Corporeal's great piece it sums up for me why I now have Theresa May so much. She was uniquely placed just after taking over to recalibrate expectations and bring soft Remainers in. Instead 2 + years of sub UKIP type shrieking followed by inevitable capitulation to reality. She deserves what's coming to her. I hope even at this stage she suffers the indignity of an involuntary and premature ejection from Downing St. She deserves it.
She should have faced down the ERGonauts at the start of this, not the end. Even though I am a full on eurofederalist I have more respect for JRM and company than May.
Re: the substance of Corporeal's great piece it sums up for me why I now have Theresa May so much. She was uniquely placed just after taking over to recalibrate expectations and bring soft Remainers in. Instead 2 + years of sub UKIP type shrieking followed by inevitable capitulation to reality. She deserves what's coming to her. I hope even at this stage she suffers the indignity of an involuntary and premature ejection from Downing St. She deserves it.
Conservative backbenchers could have slung Theresa May out after she'd needlessly lost the majority. Instead they banged the desks in support. It's too late now.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
Not as big as the backlash if we Remain. 17.4 million people being told their vote was worthless and the elites know better. This country could rapidly become ungovernable.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
Not as big as the backlash if we Remain. 17.4 million people being told their vote was worthless and the elites know better. This country could rapidly become ungovernable.
Almost as bad as France of a weekend when petrol prices are high.
My sense is we now have a very clear dynamic. It's precisely because there is no viable alternative to the May deal that it will be voted down on the first attempt. Anyone in politics with a future who ultimately has to vote for this Crock of ***** will need plausible deniability. " I tried, I voted no, I pleaded but there was market chaos ". If you add those to MPs who know their only hope of creating an alternative to May's deal is a first round defeat then the smaller number of ERG/Corbynista arsonists there are just too many people invested in seeing the deal defeated at least once before finally having to vote for it.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
Not as big as the backlash if we Remain. 17.4 million people being told their vote was worthless and the elites know better. This country could rapidly become ungovernable.
The biggest vote in our history - binned. Because the Little People got the wrong result.
We would deserve to be ungovernable. We would only have Democracy "when it suits".
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
Not as big as the backlash if we Remain. 17.4 million people being told their vote was worthless and the elites know better. This country could rapidly become ungovernable.
If we Remain it will be the will of the people, and you will have to lump it.
Corbynista economist for new statesman and portillo United in wanting to crash out. Postman Johnson would support the TMay deal (albeit tricky if a lab MP due to gen election ambitions).
We're going to find out if the centrists or the bennites and ERG are more united...
On topic I'm a politics junkie, policy sink and Brexit is more important to me than any political issue in my life time. But even I had a media black out today. I just have pain thresholds. I'm waiting to see what is actually agreed by EUCO on Sunday and in the meantime will read the full political declaration unfiltered. If I feel like that being as unrepresentative of the British public as possible then how much of this is filtering through to ' ordinary ' members of the British public ?
This is of course May's biggest strength and biggest weakness. On the one hand it gives huge power to front pages like the Sun's. Brexit voters who feel betrayed by modernity will happily take the Sun's off the shelf take that they will indeed remain betrayed. On the other hand many voters just want this to be over. And don't care what's in May's deal as long as it an outcome. An End.
Except it won't be an end. The end of the beginning. This has years, probably decades to run. Voters have no concept of that.
Oh I agree. The next huge bomb to go off in British politics is in mid to late April when voters notice the media and political class is still talking about Brexit and needs to keep talking about Brexit until at least GE22 if not in practice much longer. When closure doesn't arrive the reaction could be powerful.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
Not as big as the backlash if we Remain. 17.4 million people being told their vote was worthless and the elites know better. This country could rapidly become ungovernable.
The biggest vote in our history - binned. Because the Little People got the wrong result.
We would deserve to be ungovernable. We would only have Democracy "when it suits".
It would be like Ireland or Greece but even more of a national humiliation in we would be saying we tried to leave the EU and just did not have the strength to do so. Talk about becoming a member of the league of ordinary nations.
But it's whether the centrists move in enough numbers from the peoples vote campaign etc to get the deal through rather than let their respective purists get their way.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
Not as big as the backlash if we Remain. 17.4 million people being told their vote was worthless and the elites know better. This country could rapidly become ungovernable.
The biggest vote in our history - binned. Because the Little People got the wrong result.
We would deserve to be ungovernable. We would only have Democracy "when it suits".
It would be like Ireland or Greece but even more of a national humiliation in we would be saying we tried to leave the EU and just did not have the strength to do so. Talk about becoming a member of the league of ordinary nations.
Spain's PM has (quite rightly) identified that it won't be bounced into an agreement that does not deliver some clarification over Gibraltar, and to think that some last week were saying that Spain was virtually in the bag over the Rock......No 10's ongoing plan to suddenly present a fait accompli (whether to the DUP, Brussels, Tory MPs and now Madrid/Gibraltar) has not been an effective tactic at all.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
Not as big as the backlash if we Remain. 17.4 million people being told their vote was worthless and the elites know better. This country could rapidly become ungovernable.
If we Remain it will be the will of the people, and you will have to lump it.
LOL. If you think that will be the end of it then, as I have said often enough about you, you are utterly deluded.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
Not as big as the backlash if we Remain. 17.4 million people being told their vote was worthless and the elites know better. This country could rapidly become ungovernable.
If we Remain it will be the will of the people, and you will have to lump it.
If we Remain it will be the will of a tiny number of people who run this country.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
Not as big as the backlash if we Remain. 17.4 million people being told their vote was worthless and the elites know better. This country could rapidly become ungovernable.
If we Remain it will be the will of the people, and you will have to lump it.
If we Remain it will be the will of a tiny number of people who run this country.
What’s your prediction for the result of a second referendum?
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
Not as big as the backlash if we Remain. 17.4 million people being told their vote was worthless and the elites know better. This country could rapidly become ungovernable.
If we Remain it will be the will of the people, and you will have to lump it.
ha ha - but the first vote was note will of the people?
Spain's PM has (quite rightly) identified that it won't be bounced into an agreement that does not deliver some clarification over Gibraltar, and to think that some last week were saying that Spain was virtually in the bag over the Rock......No 10's ongoing plan to suddenly present a fait accompli (whether to the DUP, Brussels, Tory MPs and now Madrid/Gibraltar) has not been an effective tactic at all.
It doesn't matter. Unless they get some other major countries on board Spain cannot block the Withdrawal Agreement.
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
None comparable to the Napoleonic Wars or WW1 and WW11 in terms of cross European impact, even the Franco-Prussian War was 60 years after 1815, not 20 years later like WW11 after WW1
You wrote "major war" above: the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century
Even the Mexican French War had 45,000 dead compared to 3 million killed in the Napoleonic Wars and 9 million in World War 1 and 24 million World War 11
Still a major war - it lasted 6 years! And Britain and Spain were involved, albeit briefly.
No it was not a major war anywhere near comparable to the Napoleonic Wars or WW1 and WW2 and in any case as it was not a European War it is irrelevant to the original point on the consequences of the Congress of Vienna and the Treaty of Versailles
You didn't mention Europe in your post: the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century
Major wars the French were involved in included Crimea, Austro-French, Mexican War and Franco-Prussian War, all by 1871.
There was also the big arms race of the 1850s, which prompted the biggest ever programme of fortifications in British history - the Palmerston Forts etc, plus the wooden steam battleships and more. We would probably have ended up having a pop at the French if the Prussians hadn't got there first.
Labour voter on QT saying if Labour will not get behind a second referendum they have to back May's Deal
Party policy, as made by Conference, is to aim for a GE. Only when that fails do they move to 2nd ref. What someone on QT thinks is irrelevant. Labour MPs have been remarkably disciplined on this so far. Much, much more than I would have credited. By contrast, Tory MPs have been outspokenly ill-disciplined. Much more than I thought. Only when GE, then 2nd ref are ruled out definitively will they move to voting for this deal. There may not be much of a government left by then. It is a game of political chicken for sure.
I don't see how this works. I don't know why Tory mps voting against in droves would definitely vote against a referendum, or renegotiating after for some reason not ditching May, and then suddenly support the deal. If they don't want no deal the other options prevent it and don't include doing a u turn. Similarly I dont see why labour would vote for or abstain even if or her options failed. They can just keep voting it down with the ERG.
I'm attempting to construct a narrative that makes sense. To keep me sane in fraught times. You may equally be right. But. That Labour prefer the following in order. 1 GE 2 2nd referendum. 3 Mays deal. 4 And a long way last No Deal. Ought to be self evident. Of course, the further we move down those options, the less discipline will hold. Although, obviously, as you eliminate the options, what the Conservatives and of course, the DUP, do will constrict the options. Change of PM throwing everything up in the air, at any point of that timeline of course.
They won't get a GE because Con MP's won't vote for it and a change of leader is sufficient to keep the DUP onside.
They won't get a 2nd referendum because we are out of time.
They won't get May's deal because the dumb c***s will vote against it.
Which leaves 4.
I keep saying this. MPs are stupid, malevolent, or distanced. They are perfectly capable of fucking things up and show every sign of doing so.
Spain's PM has (quite rightly) identified that it won't be bounced into an agreement that does not deliver some clarification over Gibraltar, and to think that some last week were saying that Spain was virtually in the bag over the Rock......No 10's ongoing plan to suddenly present a fait accompli (whether to the DUP, Brussels, Tory MPs and now Madrid/Gibraltar) has not been an effective tactic at all.
Spain wisely got a Gibraltar specific Veto for itself written into the WA negotiation guidelines. The EU27 won't just have to muster a QMV to overcome Spanish objections but publicly repudiate the previous public and written assurances to Spain. Given the dynamic of this process 8s showing membership 8s better than non membership I can't see the EU27 doing that. Especially as the Spanish point 8s not an unreasonable one. They only want what they were previously promised.
If the 3.8% Leave winning margin was " the biggest vote in our history " how did I manage 4.5% then 36% in my two council elections ?
As I believe I have pointed out before, the use of absolute or relative/proportional measurements in isolation can be misleading. The Leave winning margin was 3.8% and aroind 1.25 million votes.
Spain's PM has (quite rightly) identified that it won't be bounced into an agreement that does not deliver some clarification over Gibraltar, and to think that some last week were saying that Spain was virtually in the bag over the Rock......No 10's ongoing plan to suddenly present a fait accompli (whether to the DUP, Brussels, Tory MPs and now Madrid/Gibraltar) has not been an effective tactic at all.
Spain wisely got a Gibraltar specific Veto for itself written into the WA negotiation guidelines. The EU27 won't just have to muster a QMV to overcome Spanish objections but publicly repudiate the previous public and written assurances to Spain. Given the dynamic of this process 8s showing membership 8s better than non membership I can't see the EU27 doing that. Especially as the Spanish point 8s not an unreasonable one. They only want what they were previously promised.
Yet again the UK approach has been found wanting....
Post transition agreement: No freedom of movement/work, but no need to have a visa to visit.
If you do not need a visa to visit, then there is freedom of movement . When some people say "freedom of movement", they seem really to mean freedom to settle (with corresponding tights). Very confusing. Is it deliberate?
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
Mexican War as well!
But remind me.... Who was the Mexican war between? I don`t think it counts as a major European war.
"JP Morgan has cut its outlook for oil, predicting that Brent crude prices will average $73 a barrel in 2019 — down from the investment bank's previous forecast of $83.50 a barrel."
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian all before 1871. Suppose it depends on your definition of major. Lots of references in French politics in mid 19th C was about regaining 'la gloire'. Defeat was a running sore. I doubt Louis Napoleon would have gained power otherwise. That said I agree if the terms at Versailles had been harsher no doubt war would have come sooner.
Mexican War as well!
But remind me.... Who was the Mexican war between? I don`t think it counts as a major European war.
HYUFD said major war - he didn't specify "European". when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century
Interesting comparison by the Permanent Secretary on 'Inside the FO' just now between Brexit and 1815, when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century and 1919 when Lloyd George and Clemenceau treated Germany rather less well with war breaking out 2 decades later
Hmmm. Crimean, Austro-French, Franco-Prussian.
None comparable to the Napoleonic Wars or WW1 and WW11 in terms of cross European impact, even the Franco-Prussian War was 60 years after 1815, not 20 years later like WW11 after WW1
You wrote "major war" above: the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century
Even the Mexican French War had 45,000 dead compared to 3 million killed in the Napoleonic Wars and 9 million in World War 1 and 24 million World War 11
Still a major war - it lasted 6 years! And Britain and Spain were involved, albeit briefly.
No it was not a major war anywhere near comparable to the Napoleonic Wars or WW1 and WW2 and in any case as it was not a European War it is irrelevant to the original point on the consequences of the Congress of Vienna and the Treaty of Versailles
You didn't mention Europe in your post: the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century
Major wars the French were involved in included Crimea, Austro-French, Mexican War and Franco-Prussian War, all by 1871.
There was also the big arms race of the 1850s, which prompted the biggest ever programme of fortifications in British history - the Palmerston Forts etc, plus the wooden steam battleships and more. We would probably have ended up having a pop at the French if the Prussians hadn't got there first.
Isn't this still - as a proportion of national income - the biggest ever UK public spending project? For an invasion that never came and was never really likely to come. The concrete is still all over southern England.
They are taking the businessperson's view of identifying the only viable solution to the problem and assuming the actors involved will get there one way or another. Whether they have given any weight to politics having tons of actors with personal and professional interest in sub-optimal and even disastrous outcomes isn't clear.
"JP Morgan has cut its outlook for oil, predicting that Brent crude prices will average $73 a barrel in 2019 — down from the investment bank's previous forecast of $83.50 a barrel."
Spain's PM has (quite rightly) identified that it won't be bounced into an agreement that does not deliver some clarification over Gibraltar, and to think that some last week were saying that Spain was virtually in the bag over the Rock......No 10's ongoing plan to suddenly present a fait accompli (whether to the DUP, Brussels, Tory MPs and now Madrid/Gibraltar) has not been an effective tactic at all.
It doesn't matter. Unless they get some other major countries on board Spain cannot block the Withdrawal Agreement.
Spain.s actions are all about the impending elections in Andalucia and trying to maximise the socialist vote.
< de-lurk > Great piece @corporeal, good to see some humour injected into what’s otherwise been a foul-mouthed debate both on here and elsewhere. People need to remember that bearded sarcasm and swearing are not substitutes for reasoned argument and polite debate. Way more heat than light everywhere coming up to the Brexit vote, so I think I’ll stay lurking for a few more weeks.
F1: Off to Abu Dhabi for the next three days. There’s a rumour that Lewis Hamilton might need a new engine, after he came close to suffering a failure in Mexico. If that’s the case, and he starts at the back, I’ll be backing him for the win - that engine only has to complete one race, it will be be running in Q3 Party Mode for 55 laps. We have a very good chance of seeing just how fast the Mercedes car can be.
I went to a brilliant gig last night, called Haçienda Classical. 1980s and 1990s club music played by a full orchestra with live vocals, with DJs from the legendary Manchester nightclub and a special appearance by Peter Hook from New Order. Well worth catching their tour, they are going round the world over the winter and back in the U.K. next year. < / de-lurk >
< de-lurk > Great piece @corporeal, good to see some humour injected into what’s otherwise been a foul-mouthed debate both on here and elsewhere. People need to remember that bearded sarcasm and swearing are not substitutes for reasoned argument and polite debate. Way more heat than light everywhere coming up to the Brexit vote, so I think I’ll stay lurking for a few more weeks.
F1: Off to Abu Dhabi for the next three days. There’s a rumour that Lewis Hamilton might need a new engine, after he came close to suffering a failure in Mexico. If that’s the case, and he starts at the back, I’ll be backing him for the win - that engine only has to complete one race, it will be be running in Q3 Party Mode for 55 laps. We have a very good chance of seeing just how fast the Mercedes car can be.
I went to a brilliant gig last night, called Haçienda Classical. 1980s and 1990s club music played by a full orchestra with live vocals, with DJs from the legendary Manchester nightclub and a special appearance by Peter Hook from New Order. Well worth catching their tour, they are going round the world over the winter and back in the U.K. next year. < / de-lurk >
make sure you are not doing any "research" whilst in the UAE....
If the 3.8% Leave winning margin was " the biggest vote in our history " how did I manage 4.5% then 36% in my two council elections ?
As I believe I have pointed out before, the use of absolute or relative/proportional measurements in isolation can be misleading. The Leave winning margin was 3.8% and aroind 1.25 million votes.
YellowSubmarine won his council election by almost four million votes.
< de-lurk > Great piece @corporeal, good to see some humour injected into what’s otherwise been a foul-mouthed debate both on here and elsewhere. People need to remember that bearded sarcasm and swearing are not substitutes for reasoned argument and polite debate. Way more heat than light everywhere coming up to the Brexit vote, so I think I’ll stay lurking for a few more weeks.
F1: Off to Abu Dhabi for the next three days. There’s a rumour that Lewis Hamilton might need a new engine, after he came close to suffering a failure in Mexico. If that’s the case, and he starts at the back, I’ll be backing him for the win - that engine only has to complete one race, it will be be running in Q3 Party Mode for 55 laps. We have a very good chance of seeing just how fast the Mercedes car can be.
I went to a brilliant gig last night, called Haçienda Classical. 1980s and 1990s club music played by a full orchestra with live vocals, with DJs from the legendary Manchester nightclub and a special appearance by Peter Hook from New Order. Well worth catching their tour, they are going round the world over the winter and back in the U.K. next year. < / de-lurk >
make sure you are not doing any "research" whilst in the UAE....
Was about to add “PS I am not Matthew Hedges”.
Who in their right mind decides to do “research” in a foreign country, about that country’s role in recent and ongoing conflicts, and not expect to attract the attention of their authorities?
Well it’s a step up from the usual stories of drunk Brits assaulting police and customs officers, having sex on the beach and running unlicensed cosmetic surgery clinics in hotel suites, all of which have been in the news here recently.
< de-lurk > Great piece @corporeal, good to see some humour injected into what’s otherwise been a foul-mouthed debate both on here and elsewhere. People need to remember that bearded sarcasm and swearing are not substitutes for reasoned argument and polite debate. Way more heat than light everywhere coming up to the Brexit vote, so I think I’ll stay lurking for a few more weeks.
F1: Off to Abu Dhabi for the next three days. There’s a rumour that Lewis Hamilton might need a new engine, after he came close to suffering a failure in Mexico. If that’s the case, and he starts at the back, I’ll be backing him for the win - that engine only has to complete one race, it will be be running in Q3 Party Mode for 55 laps. We have a very good chance of seeing just how fast the Mercedes car can be.
I went to a brilliant gig last night, called Haçienda Classical. 1980s and 1990s club music played by a full orchestra with live vocals, with DJs from the legendary Manchester nightclub and a special appearance by Peter Hook from New Order. Well worth catching their tour, they are going round the world over the winter and back in the U.K. next year. < / de-lurk >
make sure you are not doing any "research" whilst in the UAE....
Was about to add “PS I am not Matthew Hedges”.
Who in their right mind decides to do “research” in a foreign country, about that country’s role in recent and ongoing conflicts, and not expect to attract the attention of their authorities?
Well it’s a step up from the usual stories of drunk Brits assaulting police and customs officers, having sex on the beach and running unlicensed cosmetic surgery clinics in hotel suites, all of which have been in the news here recently.
< de-lurk > Great piece @corporeal, good to see some humour injected into what’s otherwise been a foul-mouthed debate both on here and elsewhere. People need to remember that bearded sarcasm and swearing are not substitutes for reasoned argument and polite debate. Way more heat than light everywhere coming up to the Brexit vote, so I think I’ll stay lurking for a few more weeks.
F1: Off to Abu Dhabi for the next three days. There’s a rumour that Lewis Hamilton might need a new engine, after he came close to suffering a failure in Mexico. If that’s the case, and he starts at the back, I’ll be backing him for the win - that engine only has to complete one race, it will be be running in Q3 Party Mode for 55 laps. We have a very good chance of seeing just how fast the Mercedes car can be.
I went to a brilliant gig last night, called Haçienda Classical. 1980s and 1990s club music played by a full orchestra with live vocals, with DJs from the legendary Manchester nightclub and a special appearance by Peter Hook from New Order. Well worth catching their tour, they are going round the world over the winter and back in the U.K. next year. < / de-lurk >
make sure you are not doing any "research" whilst in the UAE....
Was about to add “PS I am not Matthew Hedges”.
Who in their right mind decides to do “research” in a foreign country, about that country’s role in recent and ongoing conflicts, and not expect to attract the attention of their authorities?
Well it’s a step up from the usual stories of drunk Brits assaulting police and customs officers, having sex on the beach and running unlicensed cosmetic surgery clinics in hotel suites, all of which have been in the news here recently.
The Greek Air Force is a spotter's delight due their 'one of everything' procurement policy. There aren't many places to see F-16, Mir2k, T-2, A-7, F-4 and in those days F-104 and F-5.
< de-lurk > Great piece @corporeal, good to see some humour injected into what’s otherwise been a foul-mouthed debate both on here and elsewhere. People need to remember that bearded sarcasm and swearing are not substitutes for reasoned argument and polite debate. Way more heat than light everywhere coming up to the Brexit vote, so I think I’ll stay lurking for a few more weeks.
F1: Off to Abu Dhabi for the next three days. There’s a rumour that Lewis Hamilton might need a new engine, after he came close to suffering a failure in Mexico. If that’s the case, and he starts at the back, I’ll be backing him for the win - that engine only has to complete one race, it will be be running in Q3 Party Mode for 55 laps. We have a very good chance of seeing just how fast the Mercedes car can be.
I went to a brilliant gig last night, called Haçienda Classical. 1980s and 1990s club music played by a full orchestra with live vocals, with DJs from the legendary Manchester nightclub and a special appearance by Peter Hook from New Order. Well worth catching their tour, they are going round the world over the winter and back in the U.K. next year. < / de-lurk >
make sure you are not doing any "research" whilst in the UAE....
Was about to add “PS I am not Matthew Hedges”.
Who in their right mind decides to do “research” in a foreign country, about that country’s role in recent and ongoing conflicts, and not expect to attract the attention of their authorities?
Well it’s a step up from the usual stories of drunk Brits assaulting police and customs officers, having sex on the beach and running unlicensed cosmetic surgery clinics in hotel suites, all of which have been in the news here recently.
Indeed so. I do actually feel quite sorry for the Foreign Office who have to deal with all these Brits who wander into trouble abroad, the number of genuine cases is somewhat outweighed by the number of idiots who doesn’t understand that when in Rome one should behave like a Roman.
Hedges will likely serve a handful of years, before getting released and deported. There’s usually a clemency announcement around major holidays when a number of foreign prisoners get sent home.
Spain's PM has (quite rightly) identified that it won't be bounced into an agreement that does not deliver some clarification over Gibraltar, and to think that some last week were saying that Spain was virtually in the bag over the Rock......No 10's ongoing plan to suddenly present a fait accompli (whether to the DUP, Brussels, Tory MPs and now Madrid/Gibraltar) has not been an effective tactic at all.
It doesn't matter. Unless they get some other major countries on board Spain cannot block the Withdrawal Agreement.
Spain.s actions are all about the impending elections in Andalucia and trying to maximise the socialist vote.
That’s a genuinely useful comment and indicates part of our problem - we spend too much time thinking about ourselves and not enough understanding the motivations of others, politicians and journalists alike. It’s one of the reasons that compromise appears to be anathema.
< de-lurk > Great piece @corporeal, good to see some humour injected into what’s otherwise been a foul-mouthed debate both on here and elsewhere. People need to remember that bearded sarcasm and swearing are not substitutes for reasoned argument and polite debate. Way more heat than light everywhere coming up to the Brexit vote, so I think I’ll stay lurking for a few more weeks.
F1: Off to Abu Dhabi for the next three days. There’s a rumour that Lewis Hamilton might need a new engine, after he came close to suffering a failure in Mexico. If that’s the case, and he starts at the back, I’ll be backing him for the win - that engine only has to complete one race, it will be be running in Q3 Party Mode for 55 laps. We have a very good chance of seeing just how fast the Mercedes car can be.
I went to a brilliant gig last night, called Haçienda Classical. 1980s and 1990s club music played by a full orchestra with live vocals, with DJs from the legendary Manchester nightclub and a special appearance by Peter Hook from New Order. Well worth catching their tour, they are going round the world over the winter and back in the U.K. next year. < / de-lurk >
make sure you are not doing any "research" whilst in the UAE....
Was about to add “PS I am not Matthew Hedges”.
Who in their right mind decides to do “research” in a foreign country, about that country’s role in recent and ongoing conflicts, and not expect to attract the attention of their authorities?
Well it’s a step up from the usual stories of drunk Brits assaulting police and customs officers, having sex on the beach and running unlicensed cosmetic surgery clinics in hotel suites, all of which have been in the news here recently.
He’s been there before, according to (I think) the Guardian, and knows, and has had talks with senior people in the past.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
Not as big as the backlash if we Remain. 17.4 million people being told their vote was worthless and the elites know better. This country could rapidly become ungovernable.
If we Remain it will be the will of the people, and you will have to lump it.
Yes, if a new referendum vote occurs and people choose to remain this time it will be because some of the 17.4 million will have changed their minds. So why a backlash?
Off topic, Germany GDP came in - as expected - as -0.2% this morning.
Which should hopefully concentrate minds in Berlin.
But there's a little bit of good news for the world in there. Domestic Germany - i.e. consumer demand - was actually OK. Exports, however, were weak as China cut back capital goods imports.
It wouldn't have mattered had the PM been a brexiter, the same loon forces would apply but not the ERG loons it would be the remain loons.
It is in the nature of revolutions that they end in revolutionary factions (politically) killing each other.
Because as in most revolutions it's the ambition of the leaders and the ignorance of the followers that fuels the conflicts 'Would you prefer someone judging the straightness of bananas or would you rather an extra £350 million a week to build new hospitals?' It's a game for any number of players.
Goring was aware of the manipulation but 80 years on it still works and the easily led are still easily led which is why referndums are such a bad idea.
"Göring: Why, of course, the people don't want war. Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship. Gilbert: There is one difference. In a democracy, the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars. Göring: Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country." - interview with psychiatrist, 3 January 1946
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
Not as big as the backlash if we Remain. 17.4 million people being told their vote was worthless and the elites know better. This country could rapidly become ungovernable.
If we Remain it will be the will of the people, and you will have to lump it.
Yes, if a new referendum vote occurs and people choose to remain this time it will be because some of the 17.4 million will have changed their minds. So why a backlash?
Tyndall has been trying to stir up the prospect of violence for some time now, and it is unpleasant and unnecessary. The biggest immediate risk of voter dissatisfaction is, in any case, clearly from a chaotic exit in March.
If the 3.8% Leave winning margin was " the biggest vote in our history " how did I manage 4.5% then 36% in my two council elections ?
As I believe I have pointed out before, the use of absolute or relative/proportional measurements in isolation can be misleading. The Leave winning margin was 3.8% and aroind 1.25 million votes.
YellowSubmarine won his council election by almost four million votes.
If the 3.8% Leave winning margin was " the biggest vote in our history " how did I manage 4.5% then 36% in my two council elections ?
As I believe I have pointed out before, the use of absolute or relative/proportional measurements in isolation can be misleading. The Leave winning margin was 3.8% and aroind 1.25 million votes.
YellowSubmarine won his council election by almost four million votes.
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
Not as big as the backlash if we Remain. 17.4 million people being told their vote was worthless and the elites know better. This country could rapidly become ungovernable.
If we Remain it will be the will of the people, and you will have to lump it.
Yes, if a new referendum vote occurs and people choose to remain this time it will be because some of the 17.4 million will have changed their minds. So why a backlash?
That will be one reason. There will be others; for example, non-voters voting remain, new, young, people on the register, older voters dying or no longer bothered about voting. There could well be some ‘physical’ trouble though, as there could if Brexit is a disaster.
It wouldn't have mattered had the PM been a brexiter, the same loon forces would apply but not the ERG loons it would be the remain loons.
It is in the nature of revolutions that they end in revolutionary factions (politically) killing each other.
Square does have a point, however, in that on the "Nixon in China" basis, a Brexiter leader would have been able to point the people towards reality and the necessity for a very soft Brexit, at least initially, in a way that May simply could not because she spoke up for Remain during the referendum. May was trapped by circumstances into pretending to head for a harder Brexit, and therein lie most of her problems.
Whether there was any leading Brexiter with the intelligence, awareness and boldness to have actually given his or her own side some hard truths at the outset is another matter, of course. None of them look like they were willing or capable to me. But then no-one expected Nixon to go to China.
Mr. B2, must admit, the Nixon in China line did immediately pop into my head when I saw a bit of news a few days ago which raised (Conservative) suspicions over May being a Remainer and staying one.
Nice article, Mr. Corporeal. The lack of clarity generally has been a failure.
It wouldn't have mattered had the PM been a brexiter, the same loon forces would apply but not the ERG loons it would be the remain loons.
It is in the nature of revolutions that they end in revolutionary factions (politically) killing each other.
Because as in most revolutions it's the ambition of the leaders and the ignorance of the followers that fuels the conflicts 'Would you prefer someone judging the straightness of bananas or would you rather an extra £350 million a week to build new hospitals?' It's a game for any number of players.
Goring was aware of the manipulation but 80 years on it still works and the easily led are still easily led which is why referndums are such a bad idea.
"Göring: Why, of course, the people don't want war. Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship. Gilbert: There is one difference. In a democracy, the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars. Göring: Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country." - interview with psychiatrist, 3 January 1946
The Goring quote is a reasonable assessment of how governments get their people to endorse a war, but has nothing to do with revolutions.
The issue with revolutions is that the aspirations of those are involved are, well, revolutionary, and when a successful revolution meets with reality, the situation requires either compromise or a very strong hand. Any compromise exposes the leaders to discontent from their own side and opens a gap for someone more extreme to capture the movement (both French and Russian revolutions were captured by progressively more extreme elements with many of the initiators consumed by their own revolution). This spiral of extremism typically leads either to collapse and restoration (although rarely to an unchanged SQ ante) or a strongman takes over and represses everyone, including the more extreme elements of his own movement.
Comments
Same with Hunt and Javid.
So a politician posturing about Brexit without knowing what's really going on - there's a first.
So the choice is either May's deal, no deal, or EUref2 and Remain or permanent Single Market and Customs Union.
There is no alternative
But. That Labour prefer the following in order.
1 GE
2 2nd referendum.
3 Mays deal.
4 And a long way last No Deal.
Ought to be self evident. Of course, the further we move down those options, the less discipline will hold. Although, obviously, as you eliminate the options, what the Conservatives and of course, the DUP, do will constrict the options. Change of PM throwing everything up in the air, at any point of that timeline of course.
So for Mays survival it doesn't matter if there is no alternative, enough of them think otherwise. Even some who back the deal. It means there's no point in them trying the same deal again.
This is of course May's biggest strength and biggest weakness. On the one hand it gives huge power to front pages like the Sun's. Brexit voters who feel betrayed by modernity will happily take the Sun's off the shelf take that they will indeed remain betrayed. On the other hand many voters just want this to be over. And don't care what's in May's deal as long as it an outcome. An End.
https://youtu.be/l1YmS_VDvMY
For May's survival that is easily enough to ensure she sees off a VONC given she only needs to win by 1
the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century
Major wars the French were involved in included Crimea, Austro-French, Mexican War and Franco-Prussian War, all by 1871.
The fact she still polls ahead of Corbyn and all her Tory rivals is proof to the fact most voters think she is putting the country, not her self interest, first
We would deserve to be ungovernable. We would only have Democracy "when it suits".
We're going to find out if the centrists or the bennites and ERG are more united...
Former EDL leader described as having 'great knowledge' by Ukip leader Gerard Batten"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tommy-robinson-ukip-leader-adviser-gerard-batten-a8647706.html
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1065761058235867136?s=20
Laughable
They won't get a 2nd referendum because we are out of time.
They won't get May's deal because the dumb c***s will vote against it.
Which leaves 4.
I keep saying this. MPs are stupid, malevolent, or distanced. They are perfectly capable of fucking things up and show every sign of doing so.
1975 - Remain: 17,378,581
2016 - Leave: 17,410,742
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/22/oil-pricesjp-morgan-gives-its-prediction-for-brent-crude-in-2019.html
when the French were treated reasonably well by Metternich and Castlereagh and avoiding a major war for almost a century
History repeats itself as farce. We can only hope that future generations will ask "Did you stay up to see Boris lose his seat? "
Great piece @corporeal, good to see some humour injected into what’s otherwise been a foul-mouthed debate both on here and elsewhere. People need to remember that bearded sarcasm and swearing are not substitutes for reasoned argument and polite debate. Way more heat than light everywhere coming up to the Brexit vote, so I think I’ll stay lurking for a few more weeks.
F1: Off to Abu Dhabi for the next three days. There’s a rumour that Lewis Hamilton might need a new engine, after he came close to suffering a failure in Mexico. If that’s the case, and he starts at the back, I’ll be backing him for the win - that engine only has to complete one race, it will be be running in Q3 Party Mode for 55 laps. We have a very good chance of seeing just how fast the Mercedes car can be.
I went to a brilliant gig last night, called Haçienda Classical. 1980s and 1990s club music played by a full orchestra with live vocals, with DJs from the legendary Manchester nightclub and a special appearance by Peter Hook from New Order. Well worth catching their tour, they are going round the world over the winter and back in the U.K. next year.
< / de-lurk >
Who in their right mind decides to do “research” in a foreign country, about that country’s role in recent and ongoing conflicts, and not expect to attract the attention of their authorities?
Well it’s a step up from the usual stories of drunk Brits assaulting police and customs officers, having sex on the beach and running unlicensed cosmetic surgery clinics in hotel suites, all of which have been in the news here recently.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1697862.stm
Hedges will likely serve a handful of years, before getting released and deported. There’s usually a clemency announcement around major holidays when a number of foreign prisoners get sent home.
Which should hopefully concentrate minds in Berlin.
But there's a little bit of good news for the world in there. Domestic Germany - i.e. consumer demand - was actually OK. Exports, however, were weak as China cut back capital goods imports.
Goring was aware of the manipulation but 80 years on it still works and the easily led are still easily led which is why referndums are such a bad idea.
"Göring: Why, of course, the people don't want war. Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship.
Gilbert: There is one difference. In a democracy, the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars.
Göring: Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country." - interview with psychiatrist, 3 January 1946
There could well be some ‘physical’ trouble though, as there could if Brexit is a disaster.
Whether there was any leading Brexiter with the intelligence, awareness and boldness to have actually given his or her own side some hard truths at the outset is another matter, of course. None of them look like they were willing or capable to me. But then no-one expected Nixon to go to China.
Mr. B2, must admit, the Nixon in China line did immediately pop into my head when I saw a bit of news a few days ago which raised (Conservative) suspicions over May being a Remainer and staying one.
Nice article, Mr. Corporeal. The lack of clarity generally has been a failure.
The issue with revolutions is that the aspirations of those are involved are, well, revolutionary, and when a successful revolution meets with reality, the situation requires either compromise or a very strong hand. Any compromise exposes the leaders to discontent from their own side and opens a gap for someone more extreme to capture the movement (both French and Russian revolutions were captured by progressively more extreme elements with many of the initiators consumed by their own revolution). This spiral of extremism typically leads either to collapse and restoration (although rarely to an unchanged SQ ante) or a strongman takes over and represses everyone, including the more extreme elements of his own movement.