< de-lurk > Great piece @corporeal, good to see some humour injected into what’s otherwise been a foul-mouthed debate both on here and elsewhere. People need to remember that bearded sarcasm and swearing are not substitutes for reasoned argument and polite debate. Way more heat than light everywhere coming up to the Brexit vote, so I think I’ll stay lurking for a few more weeks.
F1: Off to Abu Dhabi for the next three days. There’s a rumour that Lewis Hamilton might need a new engine, after he came close to suffering a failure in Mexico. If that’s the case, and he starts at the back, I’ll be backing him for the win - that engine only has to complete one race, it will be be running in Q3 Party Mode for 55 laps. We have a very good chance of seeing just how fast the Mercedes car can be.
I went to a brilliant gig last night, called Haçienda Classical. 1980s and 1990s club music played by a full orchestra with live vocals, with DJs from the legendary Manchester nightclub and a special appearance by Peter Hook from New Order. Well worth catching their tour, they are going round the world over the winter and back in the U.K. next year. < / de-lurk >
make sure you are not doing any "research" whilst in the UAE....
Was about to add “PS I am not Matthew Hedges”.
Who in their right mind decides to do “research” in a foreign country, about that country’s role in recent and ongoing conflicts, and not expect to attract the attention of their authorities?
Well it’s a step up from the usual stories of drunk Brits assaulting police and customs officers, having sex on the beach and running unlicensed cosmetic surgery clinics in hotel suites, all of which have been in the news here recently.
The Greek Air Force is a spotter's delight due their 'one of everything' procurement policy. There aren't many places to see F-16, Mir2k, T-2, A-7, F-4 and in those days F-104 and F-5.
Must make for an interesting spares inventory.....
It serms increasing numbers of harder Brexiters are resigning themselves that staying in is better than this. If that is occurring then I'd say remain is now a 50% chance. The deal is deader than almost any political idea I've ever seen and realistically the idea another leader or Corbyn will change the fundamentals does not seem plausible, so remaining is the onlyvsensibme choice left for anyone who is not a no deal supporter.
What a bloody waste of 2 plus years thus has been. All that sound and fury and even arch Brexiters are getting resigned to just staying in after all.
Monster back-lash if we don't Leave, though. May and Robbins will be remembered for killing the Tory Party as a force of national government. A new Anti-Establishment/Voters Party - "we'll listen, we'll do as you say" - will have the ear of a significant slice of former voters from both Conservative and Labour parties. A huge shake up of politics follows on.
Monster back-lash if No Deal from Remainers and many soft Brexiteers too.
Not as big as the backlash if we Remain. 17.4 million people being told their vote was worthless and the elites know better. This country could rapidly become ungovernable.
If we Remain it will be the will of the people, and you will have to lump it.
Yes, if a new referendum vote occurs and people choose to remain this time it will be because some of the 17.4 million will have changed their minds. So why a backlash?
Tyndall has been trying to stir up the prospect of violence for some time now, and it is unpleasant and unnecessary. The biggest immediate risk of voter dissatisfaction is, in any case, clearly from a chaotic exit in March.
We can leave and then unleave. The best of both worlds and the ever changing will of the people will have been satisfied
Mr. B2, must admit, the Nixon in China line did immediately pop into my head when I saw a bit of news a few days ago which raised (Conservative) suspicions over May being a Remainer and staying one.
Nice article, Mr. Corporeal. The lack of clarity generally has been a failure.
The need to secure agreement from the EU and bring on board a diverse range of domestic interests, and the huge risks of attempting a shock transition, always directed toward a considered, softly softly approach, diverging our regulations and institutions over a long period, just as they have converged. It suits leavers to spread their stories of conspiracy and treason, but any of their own would have been forced to face the same realities.
Off topic, Germany GDP came in - as expected - as -0.2% this morning.
Which should hopefully concentrate minds in Berlin.
But there's a little bit of good news for the world in there. Domestic Germany - i.e. consumer demand - was actually OK. Exports, however, were weak as China cut back capital goods imports.
It is yet another example of our parochialism, commented on earlier wrt to Spain, that we pretty much ignore what is going on elsewhere except where it can be used to make some point domestically. So if Germany had grown by 0.6% and the UK shrunk by 0.2% it would be heralded as pretty much irrefutable proof that we were all doomed and the Project Fear was right all along.
The reality, of course, is that the current problems in the EZ have nothing to do with us and don't tell us anything useful about our own situation. We have an ECB who feel the need to wind down QE and tighten monetary policy in the face of almost non existent inflation and a broader world economy that is seriously unsettled by the irrational behaviour of what is traditionally regarded as the adult in the room in the US.
These major tides of world events will buffet us in our own journey. A significant slow down in demand in the EU (again) will have a much bigger effect on our economic performance than any Brexit result as would a credit crisis in China. But we prefer our parochialism because it makes us feel like this is actually about us.
It wouldn't have mattered had the PM been a brexiter, the same loon forces would apply but not the ERG loons it would be the remain loons.
It is in the nature of revolutions that they end in revolutionary factions (politically) killing each other.
Because revolutions it's the ambition of the leaders and the ignorance of the followers that fuels the conflicts 'Would you prefer someone judging the straightness of bananas or would you rather an extra £350 million a week to build new hospitals?' It's a game for any number of players.
Goring was aware of the manipulation but 80 years on it still works and the easily led are still easily led which is why referndums are such a bad idea.
"Göring: Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship. Gilbert: There is one difference. In a democracy, the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives....
Göring: Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country." - interview with psychiatrist, 3 January 1946
The Goring quote is a reasonable assessment of how governments get their people to endorse a war, but has nothing to do with revolutions.
The issue with revolutions is that the aspirations of those are involved are, well, revolutionary, and when a successful revolution meets with reality, the situation requires either compromise or a very strong hand. Any compromise exposes the leaders to discontent from their own side and opens a gap for someone more extreme to capture the movement (both French and Russian revolutions were captured by progressively more extreme elements with many of the initiators consumed by their own revolution). This spiral of extremism typically leads either to collapse and restoration (although rarely to an unchanged SQ ante) or a strongman takes over and represses everyone, including the more extreme elements of his own movement.
Yes it was something of a stretch but the point that people can be easily led and make very bad and self destructive decisions through ignorance and coercion holds good.
"The Republican lawyer Robert Barnes – self-styled as "America's most successful political gambler" – flew over to London this month to bet £100k on GOP to hold on to the House majority. Oops."
good to see some humour injected into what’s otherwise been a foul-mouthed debate both on here and elsewhere. People need to remember that bearded sarcasm and swearing are not substitutes for reasoned argument and polite debate
I haven't been following all the threads but just in case this is a reference to @grabcocque, I'd like to put on record that I appreciate his varied and picturesque swearing.
good to see some humour injected into what’s otherwise been a foul-mouthed debate both on here and elsewhere. People need to remember that bearded sarcasm and swearing are not substitutes for reasoned argument and polite debate
I haven't been following all the threads but just in case this is a reference to @grabcocque, I'd like to put on record that I appreciate his varied and picturesque swearing.
I see that May has rowed back from her "no Brexit" threat. That leaves her deal or no deal. Since her deal will not pass in the Commons she should get back to the EU to negotiate a smooth exit pdq.
Comments
The reality, of course, is that the current problems in the EZ have nothing to do with us and don't tell us anything useful about our own situation. We have an ECB who feel the need to wind down QE and tighten monetary policy in the face of almost non existent inflation and a broader world economy that is seriously unsettled by the irrational behaviour of what is traditionally regarded as the adult in the room in the US.
These major tides of world events will buffet us in our own journey. A significant slow down in demand in the EU (again) will have a much bigger effect on our economic performance than any Brexit result as would a credit crisis in China. But we prefer our parochialism because it makes us feel like this is actually about us.
YorkshireEngland."The Republican lawyer Robert Barnes – self-styled as "America's most successful political gambler" – flew over to London this month to bet £100k on GOP to hold on to the House majority. Oops."