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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sir Graham Brady’s comments today make me think backing Theres

13

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    what we think.

    PS Apologies for all the swearing.

    That's what you get when you have a thick authoritarian Remainer in charge.
    This attitude is precisely why we're heading for the nauseating "people's vote" !
    Which attitude? I support the Deal even though it is shit. It is May who has made the Peoples vote more likely by being so.utterly shit at what she does.
    All very well but you were an advocate of a Norway/EEA solution, with no restrictions on FoM. It was inconceivable that May could have pursued that route the way the referendum was won.
    Not necessarily. She could have sought to make domestic changes to reduce the concerns about immigration. Of course, there would have been a lot of screaming and shouting from Labour.
  • alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    what we think.

    PS Apologies for all the swearing.

    That's what you get when you have a thick authoritarian Remainer in charge.
    This attitude is precisely why we're heading for the nauseating "people's vote" !
    Which attitude? I support the Deal even though it is shit. It is May who has made the Peoples vote more likely by being so.utterly shit at what she does.
    All very well but you were an advocate of a Norway/EEA solution, with no restrictions on FoM. It was inconceivable that May could have pursued that route the way the referendum was won.
    It was perfectly conceivable - indeed desirable - given the closeness of the result and I said as much on here in an article the day after the result.
  • Embittered ex-employee seeking payback?

    https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/1064216024864759809
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    tlg86 said:

    I don't think we should be forced into a Brexit nightmare. Leave is the path to ruin as plotted out by Leavers in a No Deal. It is not just a case of Leaving but finding a way of doing as little damage as possible to the economy and peoples lives.

    I am worried about having disruption to my medication! Surely it is a basic fundamental right in an advanced society to keep the supply of medication flowing in peacetime? The ERG are not going to know what has hit them if they drive us into the rocks. Just think of the hundreds of thousands or even millions who could experience interference in their medical care because of their selfish cavalier attitude to other peoples lives. I don't think anyone ever died because of the European Union, Leave on the other hand could have the blood on their hands of many many innocent victims.

    BiB - I think this is a problem with politics in general (and not just the EU issue). So long as any pain is felt across a broad enough section of the population, then that's fine. We have so many special interest groups who politicians pander to that if you're not one of them you have to suck it up.

    Yes, I suspect the EU has never killed anyone. But that doesn't mean we should stay in it. As for our current predicament, I'm really not sure what I'd do if I was an MP. It angers me that we're having this discussion now, when we should have done this a year ago. I guess no parliament can bind its successors, so it's not inconceivable that we could just walk away at a later date (hopefully with some planning - though I wonder if the EU would throw their toys out of the pram if we started to make preparations).
    Any country can announce its intention to withdraw from a treaty. NAFTA doesn't have a "clause" covering the exit of a country, but that wasn't an impidement to departure,

    In fact, a vanishingly small number of international treaties contain provisions for bringing them to a conclusion. Heck of the 210 different treaties signed between Switzerland and the EEC/EC/EU between 1972 and today, I don't think any contain a provision for exit. Yet, of those 210, perhaps only 180 are currently in force. Simply, new treaties came along and Switzerland and the EU ripped up old ones. (And some of these brought Switzerland and the EU closer together, and some of them moved them apart.)

    It is perfectly reasonable to argue for No Deal - although I find that many of those doing so don't appreciate the extent to which it would affect the UK's trading relationships with the rest of the world. But it is dishonest to suggest that this deal - or any subsequent one - is in any way "final".
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited November 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I don't think we should be forced into a Brexit nightmare. Leave is the path to ruin as plotted out by Leavers in a No Deal. It is not just a case of Leaving but finding a way of doing as little damage as possible to the economy and peoples lives.

    I am worried about having disruption to my medication! Surely it is a basic fundamental right in an advanced society to keep the supply of medication flowing in peacetime? The ERG are not going to know what has hit them if they drive us into the rocks. Just think of the hundreds of thousands or even millions who could experience interference in their medical care because of their selfish cavalier attitude to other peoples lives. I don't think anyone ever died because of the European Union, Leave on the other hand could have the blood on their hands of many many innocent victims.

    BiB - I think this is a problem with politics in general (and not just the EU issue). So long as any pain is felt across a broad enough section of the population, then that's fine. We have so many special interest groups who politicians pander to that if you're not one of them you have to suck it up.

    Yes, I suspect the EU has never killed anyone. But that doesn't mean we should stay in it. As for our current predicament, I'm really not sure what I'd do if I was an MP. It angers me that we're having this discussion now, when we should have done this a year ago. I guess no parliament can bind its successors, so it's not inconceivable that we could just walk away at a later date (hopefully with some planning - though I wonder if the EU would throw their toys out of the pram if we started to make preparations).
    Any country can announce its intention to withdraw from a treaty. NAFTA doesn't have a "clause" covering the exit of a country, but that wasn't an impidement to departure,

    In fact, a vanishingly small number of international treaties contain provisions for bringing them to a conclusion. Heck of the 210 different treaties signed between Switzerland and the EEC/EC/EU between 1972 and today, I don't think any contain a provision for exit. Yet, of those 210, perhaps only 180 are currently in force. Simply, new treaties came along and Switzerland and the EU ripped up old ones. (And some of these brought Switzerland and the EU closer together, and some of them moved them apart.)

    It is perfectly reasonable to argue for No Deal - although I find that many of those doing so don't appreciate the extent to which it would affect the UK's trading relationships with the rest of the world. But it is dishonest to suggest that this deal - or any subsequent one - is in any way "final".
    I hope you're right. I think there's a chance that will be tested should this deal be agreed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018

    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    what we think.

    PS Apologies for all the swearing.

    That's what you get when you have a thick authoritarian Remainer in charge.
    This attitude is precisely why we're heading for the nauseating "people's vote" !
    Which attitude? I support the Deal even though it is shit. It is May who has made the Peoples vote more likely by being so.utterly shit at what she does.
    All very well but you were an advocate of a Norway/EEA solution, with no restrictions on FoM. It was inconceivable that May could have pursued that route the way the referendum was won.
    It was perfectly conceivable - indeed desirable - given the closeness of the result and I said as much on here in an article the day after the result.
    Without promising immigration controls Leave would have lost as it was that issue above all else which got a high turnout in working class areas for Leave.

    Norway/EEA could be a last resort before EUref2 given only 32% of voters back No Deal but a Deal which ended free movement had to be pursued first to respect the Leave vote
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728

    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    what we think.

    PS Apologies for all the swearing.

    That's what you get when you have a thick authoritarian Remainer in charge.
    This attitude is precisely why we're heading for the nauseating "people's vote" !
    Which attitude? I support the Deal even though it is shit. It is May who has made the Peoples vote more likely by being so.utterly shit at what she does.
    All very well but you were an advocate of a Norway/EEA solution, with no restrictions on FoM. It was inconceivable that May could have pursued that route the way the referendum was won.
    It was perfectly conceivable - indeed desirable - given the closeness of the result and I said as much on here in an article the day after the result.
    But it wasn't. Leave won the referendum because it assembled a broad church - on one end the EEAers, on the other the throw-out-the-foreigners lot. Hence the leave result represents those two incompatible and contradictory positions. I cannot say - and you cannot say either - the position the majority of leavers took, as it was not differentiated on the ballot paper.

    This was bound to lead to the chaos we're seeing now, as leavers on both ends argue that 'their' Brexit is the one, true Brexit. It's easy to throw insults at May and others, but no-one could devise a Brexit that would satisfy leavers and hence 'match' the referendum result.

    This was all predictable before the referendum, and was indeed predicted. But such voices were ignored as leavers were keener on winning than what would happen afterwards.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Mr. Pulpstar, I think that's a credible path.

    Hoping I'm online if it happens, to take advantage of prices on the markets (got really lucky with the Lib Dem leadership. I'd backed Swinson just the day before, laid before she announced she wasn't standing, and then backed the Not-Not-Standing candidates as each of them successively dropped out. Was splendid).

    Layla Moran will be the next LD leader.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044
    Off topic, Anita Rani just said 'a neat and tidy bush' on Countryfile!!!
  • TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    Fenman said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, I think that's a credible path.

    Hoping I'm online if it happens, to take advantage of prices on the markets (got really lucky with the Lib Dem leadership. I'd backed Swinson just the day before, laid before she announced she wasn't standing, and then backed the Not-Not-Standing candidates as each of them successively dropped out. Was splendid).

    Layla Moran will be the next LD leader.
    Knowing the Lib Dems, they'll make Lord Lester leader ... ;0
  • Must say that I am really enjoying this series of The Thick of It. Nicola Murray unexpectedly becoming Brexit Secretary - who'd have thought it. As Malcolm put it "The reason I didn't know about you and your children is you are so low down on the list of candidates for this job I didn't even have the chance to look into you. So low. Waaaaay waaay waaay way low."
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Please note that we're miles away from a second vote still. The Tory hierarchy (Even May) isn't for it.

    According to the Sunday Times May's advisers expect her to lose the first vote but she will wait for the markets to crash on the prospect of No Deal and after they have done so she will then call a second vote
    May's adviser's are idiots if that's the case, well we knew that anyway.
    Markets move dramatically on unexpected events, losing the first vote is the overwhelming consensus opinion , so the market reaction won't be dramatic enough to scare anyone.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    +1
  • I am SO SO SO SO SO bored of this. Please god we Brexit asap and life can revert to focusing on everything else that's been neglected over the last 2 years...

    I'm a total layman on all this (as not overly obsessed with the EU) but by instinct a Clarke-ite 'wet' .... but it always seemed to me that DxEU was set up specifically to allow the true believers to at least take some ownership and involvement in implementing Brexit.... something many of that group seemed to have no interest in doing. The flamboyant campaigning was what they enjoyed, the dirty work of getting it done was for others.

    There was a first wave of these purists who exited stage left as soon as the referendum was won, having no interest in implementing the thing, perhaps as they had no idea how to other than their belief statement mantras.

    Ever since then we've seen more cutting and running to snipe at the sidelines even by those nominally leading that department. It's the ease of being the opposition rather than the implementer and so to be able to critique and not actually have to negotiate/compromise.

    They are getting Brexit and yet we all knew they'd never be happy with the version they would get....

    JUST GET IT DONE AND MOVE ON FFS.

    Rant over.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Please note that we're miles away from a second vote still. The Tory hierarchy (Even May) isn't for it.

    According to the Sunday Times May's advisers expect her to lose the first vote but she will wait for the markets to crash on the prospect of No Deal and after they have done so she will then call a second vote
    May's adviser's are idiots if that's the case, well we knew that anyway.
    Markets move dramatically on unexpected events, losing the first vote is the overwhelming consensus opinion , so the market reaction won't be dramatic enough to scare anyone.
    Yes but we know how stubborn May is, she will call a second vote and if it still does get rejected then the markets really will crash and she will then call a third and fourth vote and so on until we are left with a barter economy and MPs are eating rats and drinking water from the Thames and finally agree to vote for the Deal (barring Rees-Mogg and Bill Cash of course who will say how lucky we are to eat delicious British rats in a Britain free of the EU)
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    That's because you're not competing for wages at the bottom. There's been a very obvious benefit to the C2DE voters who backed brexit.

    http://www.cityam.com/269007/wages-continue-grow-economy-boasts-higher-employment-rate
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,745

    I am SO SO SO SO SO bored of this. Please god we Brexit asap and life can revert to focusing on everything else that's been neglected over the last 2 years...

    I'm a total layman on all this (as not overly obsessed with the EU) but by instinct a Clarke-ite 'wet' .... but it always seemed to me that DxEU was set up specifically to allow the true believers to at least take some ownership and involvement in implementing Brexit.... something many of that group seemed to have no interest in doing. The flamboyant campaigning was what they enjoyed, the dirty work of getting it done was for others.

    There was a first wave of these purists who exited stage left as soon as the referendum was won, having no interest in implementing the thing, perhaps as they had no idea how to other than their belief statement mantras.

    Ever since then we've seen more cutting and running to snipe at the sidelines even by those nominally leading that department. It's the ease of being the opposition rather than the implementer and so to be able to critique and not actually have to negotiate/compromise.

    They are getting Brexit and yet we all knew they'd never be happy with the version they would get....

    JUST GET IT DONE AND MOVE ON FFS.

    Rant over.

    Begs the question: Get what done?

    If you are bored of Brexit, then this is only the beginning. We move on to the post WA discussions.
  • Cyclefree said:

    I agree with the header - the ERG aren't a busted flush when it comes to the vote on the deal, but they are apparently exactly that with regard to replacing May. We should know for sure this week.

    Gary Streeter's idea (last thread) of a referendum between May's deal and Remain deserves attention - I can see it getting a majority in the Commons, as it brings together all the Remainers plus all the May loyalists. It would infuriate the ERG, but everything infuriates them, so no loss. It would be an interesting test of the theory that Corbyn is a secret Brexiter, since he and everyone else would need to choose between Remain and Just Outside. It would recognise the reality that full-on Brexit just isn't possible unless we accept massive disruption and/or a hard Irish border. But more to the point, it could actually resolve the issue.

    I just would like to point out that this idea was mine and posted on here, some time before Streeter nicked it.

    Given the people voted for leave over remain, do either of you think handing them a choice of half arsed leave negotiated by people who didn't vote to leave or not leaving at all respects the referendum result as both major parties have pledged repeatedly? Or do you think this doesn't matter as long as what you think is common sense is prevails?

    If you wish to respect the original vote, then a further referendum between accepting the deal and no deal (where the people choose whether to accept the threat of massive disruption and NI border conflagration or dismiss it as either worth the hassle or Project Fear pt 2) would make far more sense. It would also be logically consistent with the old referendum lock promise.

    Instead it seems you are overruling the will of the people because you feel your opinion has greater value which seems profoundly undemocratic, although consistent with the EU's take on popular consent.

    I don't see how you can morally justify removing what people voted for (leaving regardless of the path) from the ballot, but keep what they didn't vote for (remaining regardless of how the EU evolves).
  • I am SO SO SO SO SO bored of this. Please god we Brexit asap and life can revert to focusing on everything else that's been neglected over the last 2 years...

    I'm a total layman on all this (as not overly obsessed with the EU) but by instinct a Clarke-ite 'wet' .... but it always seemed to me that DxEU was set up specifically to allow the true believers to at least take some ownership and involvement in implementing Brexit.... something many of that group seemed to have no interest in doing. The flamboyant campaigning was what they enjoyed, the dirty work of getting it done was for others.

    There was a first wave of these purists who exited stage left as soon as the referendum was won, having no interest in implementing the thing, perhaps as they had no idea how to other than their belief statement mantras.

    Ever since then we've seen more cutting and running to snipe at the sidelines even by those nominally leading that department. It's the ease of being the opposition rather than the implementer and so to be able to critique and not actually have to negotiate/compromise.

    They are getting Brexit and yet we all knew they'd never be happy with the version they would get....

    JUST GET IT DONE AND MOVE ON FFS.

    Rant over.

    Nope. The day after Brexit Day we've 15 months to decide in using the Transition extension. The security relationship is going in a separate Treaty and will cause CJEU/ECHR wars. The FTA will take years with most of the issues we are currently arguing about unresolved. Then the TCA will prove not to be temporary. Then the future Mobility Framework will prove to be FoM with massive extra administrative burden.

    We've at least 5 years and quite possibly a decade of this still to come.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    Tony said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    That's because you're not competing for wages at the bottom. There's been a very obvious benefit to the C2DE voters who backed brexit.

    http://www.cityam.com/269007/wages-continue-grow-economy-boasts-higher-employment-rate
    Besides it's not just about the economy.
    Leavers like me are prepared to take a hit, short- and long-term, for a proper Brexit.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    what we think.

    PS Apologies for all the swearing.

    That's what you get when you have a thick authoritarian Remainer in charge.
    This attitude is precisely why we're heading for the nauseating "people's vote" !
    Which attitude? I support the Deal even though it is shit. It is May who has made the Peoples vote more likely by being so.utterly shit at what she does.
    All very well but you were an advocate of a Norway/EEA solution, with no restrictions on FoM. It was inconceivable that May could have pursued that route the way the referendum was won.
    It was perfectly conceivable - indeed desirable - given the closeness of the result and I said as much on here in an article the day after the result.
    But it wasn't. Leave won the referendum because it assembled a broad church - on one end the EEAers, on the other the throw-out-the-foreigners lot. Hence the leave result represents those two incompatible and contradictory positions. I cannot say - and you cannot say either - the position the majority of leavers took, as it was not differentiated on the ballot paper.

    This was bound to lead to the chaos we're seeing now, as leavers on both ends argue that 'their' Brexit is the one, true Brexit. It's easy to throw insults at May and others, but no-one could devise a Brexit that would satisfy leavers and hence 'match' the referendum result.

    This was all predictable before the referendum, and was indeed predicted. But such voices were ignored as leavers were keener on winning than what would happen afterwards.
    Precisely. Remain offered the world as it is. Leave offered the world as you would like it to be. The problem is that there are 17.4m different visions of how the world should be, and no obvious way of bringing any of them into existence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    geoffw said:

    Tony said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    That's because you're not competing for wages at the bottom. There's been a very obvious benefit to the C2DE voters who backed brexit.

    http://www.cityam.com/269007/wages-continue-grow-economy-boasts-higher-employment-rate
    Besides it's not just about the economy.
    Leavers like me are prepared to take a hit, short- and long-term, for a proper Brexit.
    Yes but Leavers like you who are ready to accept No Deal and an economic hit for Brexit only represent about 32% of voters, that means Leave no longer has a majority if it really hits people in their pockets
  • IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    Utterly wrong. There were plenty of options that were better than Remaining. Indeed even this deal, bad as it is, is still better than Remaining. There is basically nothing - even a No Deal Brexit - that would be worse than staying in the EU. That was certainly the case at the time of the referendum and is even more do the case now.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    Tony said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    That's because you're not competing for wages at the bottom. There's been a very obvious benefit to the C2DE voters who backed brexit.

    http://www.cityam.com/269007/wages-continue-grow-economy-boasts-higher-employment-rate
    Besides it's not just about the economy.
    Leavers like me are prepared to take a hit, short- and long-term, for a proper Brexit.
    Yes but Leavers like you who are ready to accept No Deal and an economic hit for Brexit only represent about 32% of voters, that means Leave no longer has a majority if it really hits people in their pockets
    Only 32%! I'm indeed pleased to be with them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,745
    Tony said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    That's because you're not competing for wages at the bottom. There's been a very obvious benefit to the C2DE voters who backed brexit.

    http://www.cityam.com/269007/wages-continue-grow-economy-boasts-higher-employment-rate
    Considering that the drop in EU migration has substantially been compensated by Non EU migration, it is hard to see how that has affected wages.
  • I am SO SO SO SO SO bored of this. Please god we Brexit asap and life can revert to focusing on everything else that's been neglected over the last 2 years...

    I'm a total layman on all this (as not overly obsessed with the EU) but by instinct a Clarke-ite 'wet' .... but it always seemed to me that DxEU was set up specifically to allow the true believers to at least take some ownership and involvement in implementing Brexit.... something many of that group seemed to have no interest in doing. The flamboyant campaigning was what they enjoyed, the dirty work of getting it done was for others.

    There was a first wave of these purists who exited stage left as soon as the referendum was won, having no interest in implementing the thing, perhaps as they had no idea how to other than their belief statement mantras.

    Ever since then we've seen more cutting and running to snipe at the sidelines even by those nominally leading that department. It's the ease of being the opposition rather than the implementer and so to be able to critique and not actually have to negotiate/compromise.

    They are getting Brexit and yet we all knew they'd never be happy with the version they would get....

    JUST GET IT DONE AND MOVE ON FFS.

    Rant over.

    Nope. The day after Brexit Day we've 15 months to decide in using the Transition extension. The security relationship is going in a separate Treaty and will cause CJEU/ECHR wars. The FTA will take years with most of the issues we are currently arguing about unresolved. Then the TCA will prove not to be temporary. Then the future Mobility Framework will prove to be FoM with massive extra administrative burden.

    We've at least 5 years and quite possibly a decade of this still to come.
    Don't tell me we are going to continue to have the daily 'front page' unending moaning, griping and bitching that we've seen once we get past the March 2019 date?


  • Pulpstar said:



    The question on the ballot was regarding leaving the European Union. This deal does that, if the ERG votes down May's deal they've betrayed the British public.

    Given we are due to leave in the absence of the deal I don't see why this is the case.

    If others subsequently intervene to thwart all forms of Brexit, then they are surely the betrayers.

    I can see why you might argue that the ERG's tactics (and/or goals) are questionable, but that doesn't make them a betrayal.
  • alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    what we think.

    PS Apologies for all the swearing.

    That's what you get when you have a thick authoritarian Remainer in charge.
    This attitude is precisely why we're heading for the nauseating "people's vote" !
    Which attitude? I support the Deal even though it is shit. It is May who has made the Peoples vote more likely by being so.utterly shit at what she does.
    All very well but you were an advocate of a Norway/EEA solution, with no restrictions on FoM. It was inconceivable that May could have pursued that route the way the referendum was won.
    It was perfectly conceivable - indeed desirable - given the closeness of the result and I said as much on here in an article the day after the result.
    But it wasn't. Leave won the referendum because it assembled a broad church - on one end the EEAers, on the other the throw-out-the-foreigners lot. Hence the leave result represents those two incompatible and contradictory positions. I cannot say - and you cannot say either - the position the majority of leavers took, as it was not differentiated on the ballot paper.

    This was bound to lead to the chaos we're seeing now, as leavers on both ends argue that 'their' Brexit is the one, true Brexit. It's easy to throw insults at May and others, but no-one could devise a Brexit that would satisfy leavers and hence 'match' the referendum result.

    This was all predictable before the referendum, and was indeed predicted. But such voices were ignored as leavers were keener on winning than what would happen afterwards.
    Precisely. Remain offered the world as it is. Leave offered the world as you would like it to be. The problem is that there are 17.4m different visions of how the world should be, and no obvious way of bringing any of them into existence.
    Remain offered something that was not reality. The EU will continue to.pursue closer union and take directions we cannot support. As such It was only a matter of time before our position became untenable. The status quo was never a realistic option.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    I wish Brady would keep everyone updated on how many letters have been received. (He probably doesn't do so because he thinks that if he said he's got 47 it might encourage someone to send a letter who might not necessarily have otherwise sent one just in order to reach 48).
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    what we think.

    PS Apologies for all the swearing.

    That's what you get when you have a thick authoritarian Remainer in charge.
    This attitude is precisely why we're heading for the nauseating "people's vote" !
    Which attitude? I support the Deal even though it is shit. It is May who has made the Peoples vote more likely by being so.utterly shit at what she does.
    All very well but you were an advocate of a Norway/EEA solution, with no restrictions on FoM. It was inconceivable that May could have pursued that route the way the referendum was won.
    It was perfectly conceivable - indeed desirable - given the closeness of the result and I said as much on here in an article the day after the result.
    But it wasn't. Leave won the referendum because it assembled a broad church - on one end the EEAers, on the other the throw-out-the-foreigners lot. Hence the leave result represents those two incompatible and contradictory positions. I cannot say - and you cannot say either - the position the majority of leavers took, as it was not differentiated on the ballot paper.

    This was bound to lead to the chaos we're seeing now, as leavers on both ends argue that 'their' Brexit is the one, true Brexit. It's easy to throw insults at May and others, but no-one could devise a Brexit that would satisfy leavers and hence 'match' the referendum result.

    This was all predictable before the referendum, and was indeed predicted. But such voices were ignored as leavers were keener on winning than what would happen afterwards.
    Yep.
    Groundhog day.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    geoffw said:

    Tony said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    That's because you're not competing for wages at the bottom. There's been a very obvious benefit to the C2DE voters who backed brexit.

    http://www.cityam.com/269007/wages-continue-grow-economy-boasts-higher-employment-rate
    Besides it's not just about the economy.
    Leavers like me are prepared to take a hit, short- and long-term, for a proper Brexit.
    I don't mind you taking a hit, short-term and long-term for a proper Brexit. It's the fact that I'm going to take one that's pissing me off. This is compounded by the fact that many of the leavers live (or can move to) Germany/Canada/Italy/USA/Ireland/Australia/the Philippines/Singapore/Gibraltar/wherever and will move away when things get hard. That's going to leave me cleaning up the shit whilst wealthy sanctimonious leavers bleat about how it was never about money but principle from their elysian haunts.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Floater said:
    The last time I read anything by Steve Hilton he was criticising Cameron for running a poor referendum campaign.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,745

    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    what we think.

    PS Apologies for all the swearing.

    That's what you get when you have a thick authoritarian Remainer in charge.
    This attitude is precisely why we're heading for the nauseating "people's vote" !
    Which attitude? I support the Deal even though it is shit. It is May who has made the Peoples vote more likely by being so.utterly shit at what she does.
    All very well but you were an advocate of a Norway/EEA solution, with no restrictions on FoM. It was inconceivable that May could have pursued that route the way the referendum was won.
    It was perfectly conceivable - indeed desirable - given the closeness of the result and I said as much on here in an article the day after the result.
    But it wasn't. Leave won the referendum because it assembled a broad church - on one end the EEAers, on the other the throw-out-the-foreigners lot. Hence the leave result represents those two incompatible and contradictory positions. I cannot say - and you cannot say either - the position the majority of leavers took, as it was not differentiated on the ballot paper.

    This was bound to lead to the chaos we're seeing now, as leavers on both ends argue that 'their' Brexit is the one, true Brexit. It's easy to throw insults at May and others, but no-one could devise a Brexit that would satisfy leavers and hence 'match' the referendum result.

    This was all predictable before the referendum, and was indeed predicted. But such voices were ignored as leavers were keener on winning than what would happen afterwards.
    Precisely. Remain offered the world as it is. Leave offered the world as you would like it to be. The problem is that there are 17.4m different visions of how the world should be, and no obvious way of bringing any of them into existence.
    The Brexiteers rather fancy Oklahoman products. Not sure the people of Hartlepool or Ebbw Vale will feel the same. They may prefer Corbynist state intervention and protectionism.

    My feeling is that the latter will predominate over the former. Think of Peronist economics ala Kirchner.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    what we think.

    PS Apologies for all the swearing.

    That's what you get when you have a thick authoritarian Remainer in charge.
    This attitude is precisely why we're heading for the nauseating "people's vote" !
    Which attitude? I support the Deal even though it is shit. It is May who has made the Peoples vote more likely by being so.utterly shit at what she does.
    All very well but you were an advocate of a Norway/EEA solution, with no restrictions on FoM. It was inconceivable that May could have pursued that route the way the referendum was won.
    It was perfectly conceivable - indeed desirable - given the closeness of the result and I said as much on here in an article the day after the result.
    But it wasn't. Leave won the referendum because it assembled a broad church - on one end the EEAers, on the other the throw-out-the-foreigners lot. Hence the leave result represents those two incompatible and contradictory positions. I cannot say - and you cannot say either - the position the majority of leavers took, as it was not differentiated on the ballot paper.

    This was bound to lead to the chaos we're seeing now, as leavers on both ends argue that 'their' Brexit is the one, true Brexit. It's easy to throw insults at May and others, but no-one could devise a Brexit that would satisfy leavers and hence 'match' the referendum result.

    This was all predictable before the referendum, and was indeed predicted. But such voices were ignored as leavers were keener on winning than what would happen afterwards.
    +1. Pretty accurate analysis of why we are in the mess we are in. Once over the line the euro-fanatics were never going to compromise on anything.
  • I think loyalist Tories gleefully pointing out Brady doesn't have the 48 are misjudging this. This is asymetrasy warfare. Terrorism not a conventional land battle. What the ERGers are doing very sucessfully is denying May the chance to sell her deal. We've just finished Day 5 of the media grid and it's been oobliterated by process stories about her leadership not the detail of her deal. They burning up all her ' Oxygen of Publicity ' and suffercating the deal. Sometimes in politics all you have to do is change the subject and that's what they've done.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    geoffw said:

    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    Tony said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    That's because you're not competing for wages at the bottom. There's been a very obvious benefit to the C2DE voters who backed brexit.

    http://www.cityam.com/269007/wages-continue-grow-economy-boasts-higher-employment-rate
    Besides it's not just about the economy.
    Leavers like me are prepared to take a hit, short- and long-term, for a proper Brexit.
    Yes but Leavers like you who are ready to accept No Deal and an economic hit for Brexit only represent about 32% of voters, that means Leave no longer has a majority if it really hits people in their pockets
    Only 32%! I'm indeed pleased to be with them.
    Well I am in the 68% who back Remain or May's Deal!

    https://news.sky.com/story/majority-of-brits-now-against-brexit-and-back-second-eu-referendum-sky-data-poll-11555078
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746

    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    what we think.

    PS Apologies for all the swearing.

    That's what you get when you have a thick authoritarian Remainer in charge.
    This attitude is precisely why we're heading for the nauseating "people's vote" !
    Which attitude? I support the Deal even though it is shit. It is May who has made the Peoples vote more likely by being so.utterly shit at what she does.
    All very well but you were an advocate of a Norway/EEA solution, with no restrictions on FoM. It was inconceivable that May could have pursued that route the way the referendum was won.
    It was perfectly conceivable - indeed desirable - given the closeness of the result and I said as much on here in an article the day after the result.
    But it wasn't. Leave won the referendum because it assembled a broad church - on one end the EEAers, on the other the throw-out-the-foreigners lot. Hence the leave result represents those two incompatible and contradictory positions. I cannot say - and you cannot say either - the position the majority of leavers took, as it was not differentiated on the ballot paper.

    This was bound to lead to the chaos we're seeing now, as leavers on both ends argue that 'their' Brexit is the one, true Brexit. It's easy to throw insults at May and others, but no-one could devise a Brexit that would satisfy leavers and hence 'match' the referendum result.

    This was all predictable before the referendum, and was indeed predicted. But such voices were ignored as leavers were keener on winning than what would happen afterwards.
    Precisely. Remain offered the world as it is. Leave offered the world as you would like it to be. The problem is that there are 17.4m different visions of how the world should be, and no obvious way of bringing any of them into existence.
    Remain offered something that was not reality. The EU will continue to.pursue closer union and take directions we cannot support. As such It was only a matter of time before our position became untenable. The status quo was never a realistic option.
    The royal we is never far away once you start talking about the EU.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    Utterly wrong. There were plenty of options that were better than Remaining. Indeed even this deal, bad as it is, is still better than Remaining. There is basically nothing - even a No Deal Brexit - that would be worse than staying in the EU. That was certainly the case at the time of the referendum and is even more do the case now.
    It's a view. But there's no evidence.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    Tony said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    That's because you're not competing for wages at the bottom. There's been a very obvious benefit to the C2DE voters who backed brexit.

    http://www.cityam.com/269007/wages-continue-grow-economy-boasts-higher-employment-rate
    Besides it's not just about the economy.
    Leavers like me are prepared to take a hit, short- and long-term, for a proper Brexit.
    I don't mind you taking a hit, short-term and long-term for a proper Brexit. It's the fact that I'm going to take one that's pissing me off. This is compounded by the fact that many of the leavers live (or can move to) Germany/Canada/Italy/USA/Ireland/Australia/the Philippines/Singapore/Gibraltar/wherever and will move away when things get hard. That's going to leave me cleaning up the shit whilst wealthy sanctimonious leavers bleat about how it was never about money but principle from their elysian haunts.

    It seems likely that Remain voters would be more likely to have dual citizenship than Leave voters.

    As for the personal attacks, totally unnecessary.
  • HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Please note that we're miles away from a second vote still. The Tory hierarchy (Even May) isn't for it.

    According to the Sunday Times May's advisers expect her to lose the first vote but she will wait for the markets to crash on the prospect of No Deal and after they have done so she will then call a second vote
    Surely (unless the current mood shifts) a first vote defeat should be priced in. It won't move the markets suddenly and trying to assess how much of any fall between deal announcement and initial rejection would rightly be rejected as blather given there are many other factors moving the markets.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    geoffw said:

    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    Tony said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    That's because you're not competing for wages at the bottom. There's been a very obvious benefit to the C2DE voters who backed brexit.

    http://www.cityam.com/269007/wages-continue-grow-economy-boasts-higher-employment-rate
    Besides it's not just about the economy.
    Leavers like me are prepared to take a hit, short- and long-term, for a proper Brexit.
    Yes but Leavers like you who are ready to accept No Deal and an economic hit for Brexit only represent about 32% of voters, that means Leave no longer has a majority if it really hits people in their pockets
    Only 32%! I'm indeed pleased to be with them.
    Most of that 32% don’t think they will be hit in the pocket....

  • What’s all this about Oklahoma? Presumably the Leave community has given us something else to have a grim old chortle at.
  • Cyclefree said:

    I agree with the header - the ERG aren't a busted flush when it comes to the vote on the deal, but they are apparently exactly that with regard to replacing May. We should know for sure this week.

    Gary Streeter's idea (last thread) of a referendum between May's deal and Remain deserves attention - I can see it getting a majority in the Commons, as it brings together all the Remainers plus all the May loyalists. It would infuriate the ERG, but everything infuriates them, so no loss. It would be an interesting test of the theory that Corbyn is a secret Brexiter, since he and everyone else would need to choose between Remain and Just Outside. It would recognise the reality that full-on Brexit just isn't possible unless we accept massive disruption and/or a hard Irish border. But more to the point, it could actually resolve the issue.

    I just would like to point out that this idea was mine and posted on here, some time before Streeter nicked it.

    Given the people voted for leave over remain, do either of you think handing them a choice of half arsed leave negotiated by people who didn't vote to leave or not leaving at all respects the referendum result as both major parties have pledged repeatedly? Or do you think this doesn't matter as long as what you think is common sense is prevails?

    If you wish to respect the original vote, then a further referendum between accepting the deal and no deal (where the people choose whether to accept the threat of massive disruption and NI border conflagration or dismiss it as either worth the hassle or Project Fear pt 2) would make far more sense. It would also be logically consistent with the old referendum lock promise.

    Instead it seems you are overruling the will of the people because you feel your opinion has greater value which seems profoundly undemocratic, although consistent with the EU's take on popular consent.

    I don't see how you can morally justify removing what people voted for (leaving regardless of the path) from the ballot, but keep what they didn't vote for (remaining regardless of how the EU evolves).
    +1
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,745
    alex. said:

    geoffw said:

    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    Tony said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    That's because you're not competing for wages at the bottom. There's been a very obvious benefit to the C2DE voters who backed brexit.

    http://www.cityam.com/269007/wages-continue-grow-economy-boasts-higher-employment-rate
    Besides it's not just about the economy.
    Leavers like me are prepared to take a hit, short- and long-term, for a proper Brexit.
    Yes but Leavers like you who are ready to accept No Deal and an economic hit for Brexit only represent about 32% of voters, that means Leave no longer has a majority if it really hits people in their pockets
    Only 32%! I'm indeed pleased to be with them.
    Most of that 32% don’t think they will be hit in the pocket....

    Because we Remainers will be paying their pensions!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    What’s all this about Oklahoma? Presumably the Leave community has given us something else to have a grim old chortle at.

    Go and look at Owen Patterson’s twitter feed
  • What’s all this about Oklahoma? Presumably the Leave community has given us something else to have a grim old chortle at.

    https://twitter.com/TimAdamsWrites/status/1064090037925670914

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1064123444235784192
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Please note that we're miles away from a second vote still. The Tory hierarchy (Even May) isn't for it.

    According to the Sunday Times May's advisers expect her to lose the first vote but she will wait for the markets to crash on the prospect of No Deal and after they have done so she will then call a second vote
    Surely (unless the current mood shifts) a first vote defeat should be priced in. It won't move the markets suddenly and trying to assess how much of any fall between deal announcement and initial rejection would rightly be rejected as blather given there are many other factors moving the markets.
    I would expect voting down the deal on the first vote to see the biggest market fall since the Leave vote. Voting it down a second time without an agreed proposal for EUref2 or single market/customs union membership as an alternative could see an even bigger market fall than the 2008 crash
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Cyclefree said:

    I agree with the header - the ERG aren't a busted flush when it comes to the vote on the deal, but they are apparently exactly that with regard to replacing May. We should know for sure this week.

    Gary Streeter's idea (last thread) of a referendum between May's deal and Remain deserves attention - I can see it getting a majority in the Commons, as it brings together all the Remainers plus all the May loyalists. It would infuriate the ERG, but everything infuriates them, so no loss. It would be an interesting test of the theory that Corbyn is a secret Brexiter, since he and everyone else would need to choose between Remain and Just Outside. It would recognise the reality that full-on Brexit just isn't possible unless we accept massive disruption and/or a hard Irish border. But more to the point, it could actually resolve the issue.

    I just would like to point out that this idea was mine and posted on here, some time before Streeter nicked it.

    Given the people voted for leave over remain, do either of you think handing them a choice of half arsed leave negotiated by people who didn't vote to leave or not leaving at all respects the referendum result as both major parties have pledged repeatedly? Or do you think this doesn't matter as long as what you think is common sense is prevails?

    If you wish to respect the original vote, then a further referendum between accepting the deal and no deal (where the people choose whether to accept the threat of massive disruption and NI border conflagration or dismiss it as either worth the hassle or Project Fear pt 2) would make far more sense. It would also be logically consistent with the old referendum lock promise.

    Instead it seems you are overruling the will of the people because you feel your opinion has greater value which seems profoundly undemocratic, although consistent with the EU's take on popular consent.

    I don't see how you can morally justify removing what people voted for (leaving regardless of the path) from the ballot, but keep what they didn't vote for (remaining regardless of how the EU evolves).
    Why should politics be the only aspect of human life where, once you find that a decision you have taken is dumb and going to be hugely damaging, you aren't allowed to think again?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,745

    What’s all this about Oklahoma? Presumably the Leave community has given us something else to have a grim old chortle at.

    https://twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/1063860778242109441?s=19

    The tweet replies cover it well.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Please note that we're miles away from a second vote still. The Tory hierarchy (Even May) isn't for it.

    According to the Sunday Times May's advisers expect her to lose the first vote but she will wait for the markets to crash on the prospect of No Deal and after they have done so she will then call a second vote
    Surely (unless the current mood shifts) a first vote defeat should be priced in. It won't move the markets suddenly and trying to assess how much of any fall between deal announcement and initial rejection would rightly be rejected as blather given there are many other factors moving the markets.
    I would expect voting down the deal on the first vote to see the biggest market fall since the Leave vote. Voting it down a second time without an agreed proposal for EUref2 or single market/customs union membership as an alternative could see an even bigger market fall than the 2008 crash
    Ever the optimist
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I don't think we should be forced into a Brexit nightmare. Leave is the path to ruin as plotted out by Leavers in a No Deal. It is not just a case of Leaving but finding a way of doing as little damage as possible to the economy and peoples lives.

    I am ........hand could have the blood on their hands of many many innocent victims.

    BiB - I think this is a problem with politics in general (and not just the EU issue). So long as any pain is felt across a broad enough section of the population, then that's fine. We have so many special interest groups who politicians pander to that if you're not one of them you have to suck it up.

    Yes, I suspect the EU has never killed anyone. But that doesn't mean we should stay in it. As for our current predicament, I'm really not sure what I'd do if I was an MP. It angers me that we're having this discussion now, when we should have done this a year ago. I guess no parliament can bind its successors, so it's not inconceivable that we could just walk away at a later date (hopefully with some planning - though I wonder if the EU would throw their toys out of the pram if we started to make preparations).
    Any country can announce its intention to withdraw from a treaty. NAFTA doesn't have a "clause" covering the exit of a country, but that wasn't an impidement to departure,

    In fact, a vanishingly small number of international treaties contain provisions for bringing them to a conclusion. Heck of the 210 different treaties signed between Switzerland and the EEC/EC/EU between 1972 and today, I don't think any contain a provision for exit. Yet, of those 210, perhaps only 180 are currently in force. Simply, new treaties came along and Switzerland and the EU ripped up old ones. (And some of these brought Switzerland and the EU closer together, and some of them moved them apart.)

    It is perfectly reasonable to argue for No Deal - although I find that many of those doing so don't appreciate the extent to which it would affect the UK's trading relationships with the rest of the world. But it is dishonest to suggest that this deal - or any subsequent one - is in any way "final".
    I'm not sure this correct. I think a treaty can be terminated for one of three reasons. 1. By a condition specified in the treaty, eg by giving 6 month's notice; 2. By mutual agreement; 3. By breaching the terms of the treaty. Tig86 talks about 3, I think, when you are maybe referring to 2.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Are we assuming that the EU will move enough to make a second HoC vote worth doing ?

    What will they offer then that isn't on the table now ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Foxy said:

    What’s all this about Oklahoma? Presumably the Leave community has given us something else to have a grim old chortle at.

    https://twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/1063860778242109441?s=19

    The tweet replies cover it well.
    The tweet replies are priceless.

    What a ludicrous voting system that throws up these bozos who purport to represent us!
  • I think loyalist Tories gleefully pointing out Brady doesn't have the 48 are misjudging this. This is asymetrasy warfare. Terrorism not a conventional land battle. What the ERGers are doing very sucessfully is denying May the chance to sell her deal. We've just finished Day 5 of the media grid and it's been oobliterated by process stories about her leadership not the detail of her deal. They burning up all her ' Oxygen of Publicity ' and suffercating the deal. Sometimes in politics all you have to do is change the subject and that's what they've done.

    Surely if they fail to get the VoNC this week then the deal isn't yet politically dead (as TMay isn't) and that will then continue to progress - it's not like the substantive vote is until next month as I understand it.... see off the heat and fury now of the ERG, prove there's no other game in town and then move on to whether there's any way to get it through Parliament?

    Is that not what's going on?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    RoyalBlue said:

    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:


    Besides it's not just about the economy.
    Leavers like me are prepared to take a hit, short- and long-term, for a proper Brexit.

    I don't mind you taking a hit, short-term and long-term for a proper Brexit. It's the fact that I'm going to take one that's pissing me off. This is compounded by the fact that many of the leavers live (or can move to) Germany/Canada/Italy/USA/Ireland/Australia/the Philippines/Singapore/Gibraltar/wherever and will move away when things get hard. That's going to leave me cleaning up the shit whilst wealthy sanctimonious leavers bleat about how it was never about money but principle from their elysian haunts.

    It seems likely that Remain voters would be more likely to have dual citizenship than Leave voters.

    As for the personal attacks, totally unnecessary.
    Fair enough. Would you instead accept "... That's going to leave me cleaning up the shit whilst the wealthy expats, remainers and leavers alike, declaim that "it was never about money but principle" from their Elysian haunts..."? Because it's a valid point even when bowdlerised.

    People talk about crashing the economy like it's a witty debate, but it's real life and if things do go badly wrong it will have real-life effects.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Please note that we're miles away from a second vote still. The Tory hierarchy (Even May) isn't for it.

    According to the Sunday Times May's advisers expect her to lose the first vote but she will wait for the markets to crash on the prospect of No Deal and after they have done so she will then call a second vote
    Surely (unless the current mood shifts) a first vote defeat should be priced in. It won't move the markets suddenly and trying to assess how much of any fall between deal announcement and initial rejection would rightly be rejected as blather given there are many other factors moving the markets.
    I would expect voting down the deal on the first vote to see the biggest market fall since the Leave vote. Voting it down a second time without an agreed proposal for EUref2 or single market/customs union membership as an alternative could see an even bigger market fall than the 2008 crash
    In sterling certainly. But maybe not in the FTSE - that could well go the other way as the bulk of FTSE 100 earnings are from outside the U.K. And UK focused companies are already at rock bottom levels, U.K. assets have been the worst performing of all the developed economies since the referendum.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223



    Politics is based on patronage rather than ability in all U.K. political parties, both in candidate selection and how MPs earn promotion. Hardly surprising that those with real ability leave politics to the mediocre and go elsewhere.

    Promotion yes up to a point ("I know him and trust him so..." is a powerful motivation), selection not so much IMO.

    Yes I think that's true up to a point Nick but i do think politics has lost something over the past couple of generations, perhaps because so many MPs are now political careerists who are, in general, much younger than their predecessors and have often spent the entire lives in politics. Many politicians of all parties appear to lack any solid belief in anything apart from their own advancement and they find it hard to connect with people outside politics because they have never worked in a "real" job.

    Few of the leaders of the late twentieth century would have decided which side to back in the EU debate on the basis of what was best for their personal career - for people such as Roy Jenkins, Michael Foot, Enoch Powell or Edward Heath their position was dictated by their fundamental beliefs, it is not imaginable that any of these people would have done a Boris and picked a side casually for career reasons, casting aside any concept of the national interest.

    Few politicians today appear to have any core values, one of Corbyns attractions is that he is an exception to this, you might not agree with him but nobody can say they do not know where he is coming from. But what does May truly believe? What drives Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid? What kind of country do they want to build? What cause would they go to the stake for?
    It’s hardly surprising. Being a British politician in 2018 is far less important and far more burdensome than it was in 1958, 1928, or 1888. The predecessors of today’s crop took part in controlling a power that ruled a quarter of the Earth, could treat with any other country as an equal at worst, had global military power and the highest GDP per capita in the world. Now we are a medium-sized country with 1% of the world’s population and 3% of its economy. Not only has the U.K. declined massively in relative terms, but MPs are now expected to work as a sort of amateur ombudsman for the bureaucratic state, whilst at the same time they have lost much of their legislative authority thanks to our E.U. membership. At the same time, the media spotlight is brighter and more hysterical than ever before.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    I think loyalist Tories gleefully pointing out Brady doesn't have the 48 are misjudging this. This is asymetrasy warfare. Terrorism not a conventional land battle. What the ERGers are doing very sucessfully is denying May the chance to sell her deal. We've just finished Day 5 of the media grid and it's been oobliterated by process stories about her leadership not the detail of her deal. They burning up all her ' Oxygen of Publicity ' and suffercating the deal. Sometimes in politics all you have to do is change the subject and that's what they've done.

    Surely if they fail to get the VoNC this week then the deal isn't yet politically dead (as TMay isn't) and that will then continue to progress - it's not like the substantive vote is until next month as I understand it.... see off the heat and fury now of the ERG, prove there's no other game in town and then move on to whether there's any way to get it through Parliament?

    Is that not what's going on?
    I think the vote is in a week? That’s what May implied.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,299
    Foxy said:

    What’s all this about Oklahoma? Presumably the Leave community has given us something else to have a grim old chortle at.

    https://twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/1063860778242109441?s=19

    The tweet replies cover it well.
    Is this a US remake of Passport to Pimlico ?

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    What’s all this about Oklahoma? Presumably the Leave community has given us something else to have a grim old chortle at.

    https://twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/1063860778242109441?s=19

    The tweet replies cover it well.
    The tweet replies are priceless.

    What a ludicrous voting system that throws up these bozos who purport to represent us!

    Let’s not forget one still being seriously touted as next PM...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I don't think we should be forced into a Brexit nightmare. Leave is the path to ruin as plotted out by Leavers in a No Deal. It is not just a case of Leaving but finding a way of doing as little damage as possible to the economy and peoples lives.

    I am ........hand could have the blood on their hands of many many innocent victims.

    BiB - I think this is a problem with politics in general (and not just the EU issue). So long as any pain is felt across a broad enough section of the population, then that's fine. We have so many special interest groups who politicians pander to that if you're not one of them you have to suck it up.

    Yes, I suspect the EU has never killed anyone. But that doesn't mean we should stay in it. As for our current predicament, I'm really not sure what I'd do if I was an MP. It angers me that we're having this discussion now, when we should have done this a year ago. I guess no parliament can bind its successors, so it's not inconceivable that we could just walk away at a later date (hopefully with some planning - though I wonder if the EU would throw their toys out of the pram if we started to make preparations).
    Any country can announce its intention to withdraw from a treaty. NAFTA doesn't have a "clause" covering the exit of a country, but that wasn't an impidement to departure,

    In fact, a vanishingly small number of international treaties contain provisions for bringing them to a conclusion. Heck of the 210 different treaties signed between Switzerland and the EEC/EC/EU between 1972 and today, I don't think any contain a provision for exit. Yet, of those 210, perhaps only 180 are currently in force. Simply, new treaties came along and Switzerland and the EU ripped up old ones. (And some of these brought Switzerland and the EU closer together, and some of them moved them apart.)

    It is perfectly reasonable to argue for No Deal - although I find that many of those doing so don't appreciate the extent to which it would affect the UK's trading relationships with the rest of the world. But it is dishonest to suggest that this deal - or any subsequent one - is in any way "final".
    I'm not sure this correct. I think a treaty can be terminated for one of three reasons. 1. By a condition specified in the treaty, eg by giving 6 month's notice; 2. By mutual agreement; 3. By breaching the terms of the treaty. Tig86 talks about 3, I think, when you are maybe referring to 2.
    The UN has a very large collection of treaties (here) and you would be amazed how many of them do not contain mechanisms for countries to exit them. That doesn't mean that they can't be exited.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Please note that we're miles away from a second vote still. The Tory hierarchy (Even May) isn't for it.

    According to the Sunday Times May's advisers expect her to lose the first vote but she will wait for the markets to crash on the prospect of No Deal and after they have done so she will then call a second vote
    Surely (unless the current mood shifts) a first vote defeat should be priced in. It won't move the markets suddenly and trying to assess how much of any fall between deal announcement and initial rejection would rightly be rejected as blather given there are many other factors moving the markets.
    I would expect voting down the deal on the first vote to see the biggest market fall since the Leave vote. Voting it down a second time without an agreed proposal for EUref2 or single market/customs union membership as an alternative could see an even bigger market fall than the 2008 crash
    PB Leavers are naive idiots who really do think that politicians might choose an option that would trash the economy.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    geoffw said:

    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    Tony said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    That's because you're not competing for wages at the bottom. There's been a very obvious benefit to the C2DE voters who backed brexit.

    http://www.cityam.com/269007/wages-continue-grow-economy-boasts-higher-employment-rate
    Besides it's not just about the economy.
    Leavers like me are prepared to take a hit, short- and long-term, for a proper Brexit.
    Yes but Leavers like you who are ready to accept No Deal and an economic hit for Brexit only represent about 32% of voters, that means Leave no longer has a majority if it really hits people in their pockets
    Only 32%! I'm indeed pleased to be with them.
    I suspect a good portion of that 32% are too old and/or too well off to believe that they will be personally inconvenienced.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Please note that we're miles away from a second vote still. The Tory hierarchy (Even May) isn't for it.

    According to the Sunday Times May's advisers expect her to lose the first vote but she will wait for the markets to crash on the prospect of No Deal and after they have done so she will then call a second vote
    Surely (unless the current mood shifts) a first vote defeat should be priced in. It won't move the markets suddenly and trying to assess how much of any fall between deal announcement and initial rejection would rightly be rejected as blather given there are many other factors moving the markets.
    I would expect voting down the deal on the first vote to see the biggest market fall since the Leave vote. Voting it down a second time without an agreed proposal for EUref2 or single market/customs union membership as an alternative could see an even bigger market fall than the 2008 crash
    PB Leavers are naive idiots who really do think that politicians might choose an option that would trash the economy.
    I think I've said before that there are sufficient stupid/mendacious/detached MPs to make that a nontrivial probability.
  • alex. said:

    I think loyalist Tories gleefully pointing out Brady doesn't have the 48 are misjudging this. This is asymetrasy warfare. Terrorism not a conventional land battle. What the ERGers are doing very sucessfully is denying May the chance to sell her deal. We've just finished Day 5 of the media grid and it's been oobliterated by process stories about her leadership not the detail of her deal. They burning up all her ' Oxygen of Publicity ' and suffercating the deal. Sometimes in politics all you have to do is change the subject and that's what they've done.

    Surely if they fail to get the VoNC this week then the deal isn't yet politically dead (as TMay isn't) and that will then continue to progress - it's not like the substantive vote is until next month as I understand it.... see off the heat and fury now of the ERG, prove there's no other game in town and then move on to whether there's any way to get it through Parliament?

    Is that not what's going on?
    I think the vote is in a week? That’s what May implied.
    some time in Dec per this? so maybe a couple of weeks at the earliest...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46250607
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,745
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    What’s all this about Oklahoma? Presumably the Leave community has given us something else to have a grim old chortle at.

    https://twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/1063860778242109441?s=19

    The tweet replies cover it well.
    Is this a US remake of Passport to Pimlico ?

    Unfortunately not a comedy. This tweet and guardian article might wipe the smile off.

    This is how the ERG wants to profit from Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgyBradders/status/1064076831857496064?s=19
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Please note that we're miles away from a second vote still. The Tory hierarchy (Even May) isn't for it.

    According to the Sunday Times May's advisers expect her to lose the first vote but she will wait for the markets to crash on the prospect of No Deal and after they have done so she will then call a second vote
    Surely (unless the current mood shifts) a first vote defeat should be priced in. It won't move the markets suddenly and trying to assess how much of any fall between deal announcement and initial rejection would rightly be rejected as blather given there are many other factors moving the markets.
    I would expect voting down the deal on the first vote to see the biggest market fall since the Leave vote. Voting it down a second time without an agreed proposal for EUref2 or single market/customs union membership as an alternative could see an even bigger market fall than the 2008 crash
    PB Leavers are naive idiots who really do think that politicians might choose an option that would trash the economy.
    Politicians, like people, are capable of anything if they feel boxed in, or if they disbelieve even blatant evidence, or think short term pain is acceptable for long term gain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    RoyalBlue said:



    Politics is based on patronage rather than ability in all U.K. political parties, both in candidate selection and how MPs earn promotion. Hardly surprising that those with real ability leave politics to the mediocre and go elsewhere.

    Promotion yes up to a point ("I know him and trust him so..." is a powerful motivation), selection not so much IMO.

    Yes I think that's true up to a point Nick but i do think politics has lost something over the past couple of generations, perhaps because so many MPs are now political careerists who are, in general, much younger than their predecessors and have often spent the entire lives in politics. Many politicians of all parties appear to lack any solid belief in anything apart from their own advancement and they find it hard to connect with people outside politics because they have never worked in a "real" job.

    ry do they want to build? What cause would they go to the stake for?
    It’s hardly surprising. Being a British politician in 2018 is far less important and far more burdensome than it was in 1958, 1928, or 1888. The predecessors of today’s crop took part in controlling a power that ruled a quarter of the Earth, could treat with any other country as an equal at worst, had global military power and the highest GDP per capita in the world. Now we are a medium-sized country with 1% of the world’s population and 3% of its economy. Not only has the U.K. declined massively in relative terms, but MPs are now expected to work as a sort of amateur ombudsman for the bureaucratic state, whilst at the same time they have lost much of their legislative authority thanks to our E.U. membership. At the same time, the media spotlight is brighter and more hysterical than ever before.
    Which only serves to confirm how difficult it will be for us to survive if we cut all ties with our largest market, the EU, without becoming a client state of the USA.

    Though to be fair the Parliaments of the 16th or 17th centuries ie pre British Empire or Act of Union was probably representing a country of about the same relative size as now but then our links to Europe were cemented by intermarriage of our royal families and military and political alliances
  • alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    what we think.

    PS Apologies for all the swearing.

    That's what you get when you have a thick authoritarian Remainer in charge.
    This attitude is precisely why we're heading for the nauseating "people's vote" !
    Which attitude? I support the Deal even though it is shit. It is May who has made the Peoples vote more likely by being so.utterly shit at what she does.
    All very well but you were an advocate of a Norway/EEA solution, with no restrictions on FoM. It was inconceivable that May could have pursued that route the way the referendum was won.
    It was perfectly conceivable - indeed desirable - given the closeness of the result and I said as much on here in an article the day after the result.
    But it wasn't. Leave won the referendum because it assembled a broad church - on one end the EEAers, on the other the throw-out-the-foreigners lot. Hence the leave result represents those two incompatible and contradictory positions. I cannot say - and you cannot say either - the position the majority of leavers took, as it was not differentiated on the ballot paper.

    This was bound to lead to the chaos we're seeing now, as leavers on both ends argue that 'their' Brexit is the one, true Brexit. It's easy to throw insults at May and others, but no-one could devise a Brexit that would satisfy leavers and hence 'match' the referendum result.

    This was all predictable before the referendum, and was indeed predicted. But such voices were ignored as leavers were keener on winning than what would happen afterwards.
    Precisely. Remain offered the world as it is. Leave offered the world as you would like it to be. The problem is that there are 17.4m different visions of how the world should be, and no obvious way of bringing any of them into existence.
    Remain offered something that was not reality. The EU will continue to.pursue closer union and take directions we cannot support. As such It was only a matter of time before our position became untenable. The status quo was never a realistic option.
    The royal we is never far away once you start talking about the EU.
    If you think there has ever been anything more than a very minority view in favour of EU political union in the UK then you are seriously mistaken.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Are we assuming that the EU will move enough to make a second HoC vote worth doing ?

    What will they offer then that isn't on the table now ?

    Once MPs see that there is nothing further on offer from the EU after the first vote they may take the time to consider if rejecting the deal was the right thing to do. Obviously some won't but those would be unlikely to shift whatever the EU came up with.
  • There is a Betfair market on which happens first ? Brexit or May going. I thought there would be a huge psychological breakdown once a deal text was published so I topped up on Brexit when all the breakthrough news was circulating then went All Green this week when the chaos started. It maybe worth checking the market out if you think sentiment is getting ahead of probability in the coming weeks. Though I will let my All Green position ride.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    OllyT said:

    geoffw said:

    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    Tony said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    That's because you're not competing for wages at the bottom. There's been a very obvious benefit to the C2DE voters who backed brexit.

    http://www.cityam.com/269007/wages-continue-grow-economy-boasts-higher-employment-rate
    Besides it's not just about the economy.
    Leavers like me are prepared to take a hit, short- and long-term, for a proper Brexit.
    Yes but Leavers like you who are ready to accept No Deal and an economic hit for Brexit only represent about 32% of voters, that means Leave no longer has a majority if it really hits people in their pockets
    Only 32%! I'm indeed pleased to be with them.
    I suspect a good portion of that 32% are too old and/or too well off to believe that they will be personally inconvenienced.
    I expect most of them are pensioners, the detail of the Sky poll was that No Deal only got up to 40% support with over 55s
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    I am SO SO SO SO SO bored of this. Please god we Brexit asap and life can revert to focusing on everything else that's been neglected over the last 2 years...

    I'm a total layman on all this (as not overly obsessed with the EU) but by instinct a Clarke-ite 'wet' .... but it always seemed to me that DxEU was set up specifically to allow the true believers to at least take some ownership and involvement in implementing Brexit.... something many of that group seemed to have no interest in doing. The flamboyant campaigning was what they enjoyed, the dirty work of getting it done was for others.

    There was a first wave of these purists who exited stage left as soon as the referendum was won, having no interest in implementing the thing, perhaps as they had no idea how to other than their belief statement mantras.

    Ever since then we've seen more cutting and running to snipe at the sidelines even by those nominally leading that department. It's the ease of being the opposition rather than the implementer and so to be able to critique and not actually have to negotiate/compromise.

    They are getting Brexit and yet we all knew they'd never be happy with the version they would get....

    JUST GET IT DONE AND MOVE ON FFS.

    Rant over.

    Nope. The day after Brexit Day we've 15 months to decide in using the Transition extension. The security relationship is going in a separate Treaty and will cause CJEU/ECHR wars. The FTA will take years with most of the issues we are currently arguing about unresolved. Then the TCA will prove not to be temporary. Then the future Mobility Framework will prove to be FoM with massive extra administrative burden.

    We've at least 5 years and quite possibly a decade of this still to come.
    Well don't depress us completely!

    But it would be good if we could even just move on to the talking about the next stage at least.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Please note that we're miles away from a second vote still. The Tory hierarchy (Even May) isn't for it.

    According to the Sunday Times May's advisers expect her to lose the first vote but she will wait for the markets to crash on the prospect of No Deal and after they have done so she will then call a second vote
    Surely (unless the current mood shifts) a first vote defeat should be priced in. It won't move the markets suddenly and trying to assess how much of any fall between deal announcement and initial rejection would rightly be rejected as blather given there are many other factors moving the markets.
    I would expect voting down the deal on the first vote to see the biggest market fall since the Leave vote. Voting it down a second time without an agreed proposal for EUref2 or single market/customs union membership as an alternative could see an even bigger market fall than the 2008 crash
    PB Leavers are naive idiots who really do think that politicians might choose an option that would trash the economy.
    They are ideologues divorced from reality
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited November 2018
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    Well it is rather remarkable leave won then. And if we are to blame lies and russian bots, thus saying the people are stupid and easily fooled, we cannot rely on polls saying they prefer remain now, since you either trust what people think or you don't.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    alex. said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    what we think.

    PS Apologies for all the swearing.

    That's what you get when you have a thick authoritarian Remainer in charge.
    This attitude is precisely why we're heading for the nauseating "people's vote" !
    Which attitude? I support the Deal even though it is shit. It is May who has made the Peoples vote more likely by being so.utterly shit at what she does.
    All very well but you were an advocate of a Norway/EEA solution, with no restrictions on FoM. It was inconceivable that May could have pursued that route the way the referendum was won.
    It was perfectly conceivable - indeed desirable - given the closeness of the result and I said as much on here in an article the day after the result.
    But it wasn't. Leave won the referendum because it assembled a broad church - on one end the EEAers, on the other the throw-out-the-foreigners lot. Hence the leave result represents those two incompatible and contradictory positions. I cannot say - and you cannot say either - the position the majority of leavers took, as it was not differentiated on the ballot paper.

    This was bound to lead to the chaos we're seeing now, as leavers on both ends argue that 'their' Brexit is the one, true Brexit. It's easy to throw insults at May and others, but no-one could devise a Brexit that would satisfy leavers and hence 'match' the referendum result.

    This was all predictable before the referendum, and was indeed predicted. But such voices were ignored as leavers were keener on winning than what would happen afterwards.
    Precisely. Remain offered the world as it is. Leave offered the world as you would like it to be. The problem is that there are 17.4m different visions of how the world should be, and no obvious way of bringing any of them into existence.
    Remain offered something that was not reality. The EU will continue to.pursue closer union and take directions we cannot support. As such It was only a matter of time before our position became untenable. The status quo was never a realistic option.
    The royal we is never far away once you start talking about the EU.
    If you think there has ever been anything more than a very minority view in favour of EU political union in the UK then you are seriously mistaken.
    Well at least the ERG and their ilk seem to have a plan to try and turn that around.
  • IanB2 said:



    Well at least the ERG and their ilk seem to have a plan to try and turn that around.

    LOL. I am certainly not going to defend the ERG on this. They are as bad as the Remoaners.
  • Ahem.

    As tipped by me on here repeatedly for days.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141

    Ahem.

    As tipped by me on here repeatedly for days.

    Ok I give up. What was tipped by you on here repeatedly for days?

  • I am worried about having disruption to my medication! Surely it is a basic fundamental right in an advanced society to keep the supply of medication flowing in peacetime? The ERG are not going to know what has hit them if they drive us into the rocks. Just think of the hundreds of thousands or even millions who could experience interference in their medical care because of their selfish cavalier attitude to other peoples lives. I don't think anyone ever died because of the European Union, Leave on the other hand could have the blood on their hands of many many innocent victims.

    What about the deaths due to diesel regulatory failure and resulting from the revolution in Ukraine? And assuming you are correct wouldn't blood also be on the hands of the EU for refusing to cooperate to ensure that their bureaucratic demands do not cause deaths due to shortages?



  • Good government, not too much state interference, personal responsibility, fostering a strong economy, fair laws, promoting opportunity, equality of opportunity, a secure nation state, the rule of law.

    Javid and Hunt must have held a very negative opinion of their government's ability to provide these things given they voted Remain (and are supposedly prinicipled).
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    I am SO SO SO SO SO bored of this. Please god we Brexit asap and life can revert to focusing on everything else that's been neglected over the last 2 years...

    I'm a total layman on all this (as not overly obsessed with the EU) but by instinct a Clarke-ite 'wet' .... but it always seemed to me that DxEU was set up specifically to allow the true believers to at least take some ownership and involvement in implementing Brexit.... something many of that group seemed to have no interest in doing. The flamboyant campaigning was what they enjoyed, the dirty work of getting it done was for others.

    There was a first wave of these purists who exited stage left as soon as the referendum was won, having no interest in implementing the thing, perhaps as they had no idea how to other than their belief statement mantras.

    Ever since then we've seen more cutting and running to snipe at the sidelines even by those nominally leading that department. It's the ease of being the opposition rather than the implementer and so to be able to critique and not actually have to negotiate/compromise.

    They are getting Brexit and yet we all knew they'd never be happy with the version they would get....

    JUST GET IT DONE AND MOVE ON FFS.

    Rant over.

    I was sure scanning through the thread that this would be a SeanT post.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141


    I am worried about having disruption to my medication! Surely it is a basic fundamental right in an advanced society to keep the supply of medication flowing in peacetime? The ERG are not going to know what has hit them if they drive us into the rocks. Just think of the hundreds of thousands or even millions who could experience interference in their medical care because of their selfish cavalier attitude to other peoples lives. I don't think anyone ever died because of the European Union, Leave on the other hand could have the blood on their hands of many many innocent victims.

    What about the deaths due to diesel regulatory failure and resulting from the revolution in Ukraine? And assuming you are correct wouldn't blood also be on the hands of the EU for refusing to cooperate to ensure that their bureaucratic demands do not cause deaths due to shortages?

    *We* are asking *them* for a deal. They have offered one. It is *us* who are turning around and saying the thing that *we* asked for isn't what we want. As long as the meme persists that this is something *they* are imposing upon *us* we will get nowhere.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited November 2018
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Don't be a coward Dickie - stand up for the whole shitshow which you voted for.

    You must be very proud of yourself.

    I am very proud of myself. So long as we leave I will still consider it a job well done. Since I am not in politics my job was to make sure i did my bit to win the referendum. After that I can only make my views known and hope people have the sense to listen. Since we have an authoritarian fuckwit for a PM I am not at all surprised she has screwed it up. So now all I can do is try to persuade people that the Deal is still better than Remain.

    If we fail in that persuasion it will be a catastrophe for this country and will allow the real extremists to gain a permanent foothold.
    Lol. After nearly two and a half years beavering away at the detail there isn't a shred of evidence that any sort of leaving deal will be better for the country - its economy and integrity - than remaining, and a great deal that points to the contrary.
    Well it is rather remarkable leave won then. And if we are to blame lies and russian bots, thus saying the people are stupid and easily fooled, we cannot rely on polls saying they prefer remain now, since you either trust what people think or you don't.
    We can trust them to say whether or not they still want the mystery dish, now that the silver dome has been lifted from the plate.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Politics is based on patronage rather than ability in all U.K. political parties, both in candidate selection and how MPs earn promotion. Hardly surprising that those with real ability leave politics to the mediocre and go elsewhere.

    Promotion yes up to a point ("I know him and trust him so..." is a powerful motivation), selection not so much IMO.

    Yes I think that's true up to a point Nick but i do think politics has lost something over the past couple of generations, perhaps because so many MPs are now political careerists who are, in general, much younger than their predecessors and have often spent the entire lives in politics. Many politicians of all parties appear to lack any solid belief in anything apart from their own advancement and they find it hard to connect with people outside politics because they have never worked in a "real" job.

    ry do they want to build? What cause would they go to the stake for?
    It’s hardly surprising. Being a British politician in 2018 is far less important and far more burdensome than it was in 1958, 1928, or 1888. The predecessors of today’s crop took part in controlling a power that ruled a quarter of the Earth, could treat with any other country as an equal at worst, had global military power and the highest GDP per capita in the world. Now we are a medium-sized country with 1% of the world’s population and 3% of its economy. Not only has the U.K. declined massively in relative terms, but MPs are now expected to work as a sort of amateur ombudsman for the bureaucratic state, whilst at the same time they have lost much of their legislative authority thanks to our E.U. membership. At the same time, the media spotlight is brighter and more hysterical than ever before.
    Which only serves to confirm how difficult it will be for us to survive if we cut all ties with our largest market, the EU, without becoming a client state of the USA.

    Though to be fair the Parliaments of the 16th or 17th centuries ie pre British Empire or Act of Union was probably representing a country of about the same relative size as now but then our links to Europe were cemented by intermarriage of our royal families and military and political alliances
    "cut all ties"

    Absolute bollocks
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Danny565 said:

    I am SO SO SO SO SO bored of this. Please god we Brexit asap and life can revert to focusing on everything else that's been neglected over the last 2 years...

    I'm a total layman on all this (as not overly obsessed with the EU) but by instinct a Clarke-ite 'wet' .... but it always seemed to me that DxEU was set up specifically to allow the true believers to at least take some ownership and involvement in implementing Brexit.... something many of that group seemed to have no interest in doing. The flamboyant campaigning was what they enjoyed, the dirty work of getting it done was for others.

    There was a first wave of these purists who exited stage left as soon as the referendum was won, having no interest in implementing the thing, perhaps as they had no idea how to other than their belief statement mantras.

    Ever since then we've seen more cutting and running to snipe at the sidelines even by those nominally leading that department. It's the ease of being the opposition rather than the implementer and so to be able to critique and not actually have to negotiate/compromise.

    They are getting Brexit and yet we all knew they'd never be happy with the version they would get....

    JUST GET IT DONE AND MOVE ON FFS.

    Rant over.

    I was sure scanning through the thread that this would be a SeanT post.
    Despite it containing some sense and a clear train of thought?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I don't think we should be forced into a Brexit nightmare. Leave is the path to ruin as plotted out by Leavers in a No Deal. It is not just a case of Leaving but finding a way of doing as little damage as possible to the economy and peoples lives.

    I amheir medical care because of their selfish cavalier attitude to other peoples lives. I don't think anyone ever died because of the European Union, Leave on the other hand could have the blood on their hands of many many innocent victims.

    BiB - I think this is a problem with politics in general (and not just the EU issue). So long as any pain is felt across a broad enough section of the population, then that's fine. We have so many special interest groups who politicians pander to that if you're not one of them you have to suck it up.

    Yes, I suspect the EU has never killed anyone. But that doesn't mean we should stay in it. As for our current predicament, I'm really not sure what I'd do if I was an MP. It angers me that we're having this discussion now, when we should have done this a year ago. I guess no parliament can bind its successors, so it's not inconceivable that we could just walk away at a later date (hopefully with some planning - though I wonder if the EU would throw their toys out of the pram if we started to make preparations).
    Any country can announce its intention to withdraw from a treaty. NAFTA doesn't have a "clause" covering the exit of a country, but that wasn't an impidement to departure,

    In fact, a vanishingly small number of international treaties contain provisions for bringing them to a conclusion. Heck of the 210 different treaties signed between Switzerland and the EEC/EC/EU between 1972 and today, I don't think any contain a provision for exit. Yet, of those 210, perhaps only 180 are currently in force. Simply, new treaties came along and Switzerland and the EU ripped up old ones. (And some of these brought Switzerland and the EU closer together, and some of them moved them apart.)

    It is perfectly reasonable to argue for No Deal - although I find that many of those doing so don't appreciate the extent to which it would affect the UK's trading relationships with the rest of the world. But it is dishonest to suggest that this deal - or any subsequent one - is in any way "final".
    I hope you're right. I think there's a chance that will be tested should this deal be agreed.
    Ultimately the only way one country can force another to do what they want (eg stick to an unloved treaty) is by threat of violence and/or diplomatic pressure

    If the U.K. chooses to renegotiate the treaty it will be renegotiated
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Floater said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Politics is based on patronage rather than ability in all U.K. political parties, both in candidate selection and how MPs earn promotion. Hardly surprising that those with real ability leave politics to the mediocre and go elsewhere.

    Promotion yes up to a point ("I know him and trust him so..." is a powerful motivation), selection not so much IMO.

    Yes I think that's true up to a point Nick but i do think politics has lost something over the past couple of generations, perhaps because so many MPs are now political careerists who are, in general, much younger than their predecessors and have often spent the entire lives in politics. Many politicians of all parties appear to lack any solid belief in anything apart from their own advancement and they find it hard to connect with people outside politics because they have never worked in a "real" job.

    ry do they want to build? What cause would they go to the stake for?
    It’s hardly surprising. Being a British politician in 2018 is far less important and far more burdensome than it was in 1958, 1928, or 1888. The predecessors of today’s crop took part in controlling a power that ruled a quarter of the Earth, could treat with any other country as an equal at worst, had global military power and the highest GDP per capita in the world. Now we are a medium-sized country with 1% of the world’s population and 3% of its economy. Not only has the U.K. declined massively in relative terms, but MPs are now expected to work as a sort of amateur ombudsman for the bureaucratic state, whilst at the same time they have lost much of their legislative authority thanks to our E.U. membership. At the same time, the media spotlight is brighter and more hysterical than ever before.
    Which only serves to confirm how difficult it will be for us to survive if we cut all ties with our largest market, the EU, without becoming a client state of the USA.

    Though to be fair the Parliaments of the 16th or 17th centuries ie pre British Empire or Act of Union was probably representing a country of about the same relative size as now but then our links to Europe were cemented by intermarriage of our royal families and military and political alliances
    "cut all ties"

    Absolute bollocks
    No Deal certainly means out of the EU, the single market and customs union and tariffs on our exports to the EU
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    Off-topic:

    17 year-old German driver Sophia Florsch had one of the worst single-seater crashes I can remember in recent years during this morning's Macau GP.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XVqoQgrsWQ

    Several people were injured, including a marshal and a photographer. Florsch is having a spinal operation tomorrow.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Politics is based on patronage rather than ability in all U.K. political parties, both in candidate selection and how MPs earn promotion. Hardly surprising that those with real ability leave politics to the mediocre and go elsewhere.

    Promotion yes up to a point ("I know him and trust him so..." is a powerful motivation), selection not so much IMO.

    Yes I think that's true up to a point Nick but i do think politics has lost something over the past couple of generations, perhaps because so many MPs are now political careerists who are, in general, much younger than their predecessors and have often spent the entire lives in politics. Many politicians of all parties appear to lack any solid belief in anything apart from their own advancement and they find it hard to connect with people outside politics because they have never worked in a "real" job.

    ry do they want to build? What cause would they go to the stake for?
    It’s hardly surprising. Being a British politician in 2018 is far less important and far more burdensome than it was in 1958, 1928, or 1888. The predecessors of today’s crop took part in controlling a power that ruled a quarter of the Earth, could treat with any other country as an equal at worst, had global military power and the highest GDP per capita in the world. Now we are a medium-sized country with 1% of the world’s population and 3% of its economy. Not only has the U.K. declined massively in relative terms, but MPs are now expected to work as a sort of amateur ombudsman for the bureaucratic state, whilst at the same time they have lost much of their legislative authority thanks to our E.U. membership. At the same time, the media spotlight is brighter and more hysterical than ever before.
    Which only serves to confirm how difficult it will be for us to survive if we cut all ties with our largest market, the EU, without becoming a client state of the USA.

    Though to be fair the Parliaments of the 16th or 17th centuries ie pre British Empire or Act of Union was probably representing a country of about the same relative size as now but then our links to Europe were cemented by intermarriage of our royal families and military and political alliances
    "cut all ties"

    Absolute bollocks
    No Deal certainly means out of the EU, the single market and customs union and tariffs on our exports to the EU
    But does not mean "cut all ties"

    As I said - absolute bollocks


  • But it wasn't. Leave won the referendum because it assembled a broad church - on one end the EEAers, on the other the throw-out-the-foreigners lot. Hence the leave result represents those two incompatible and contradictory positions. I cannot say - and you cannot say either - the position the majority of leavers took, as it was not differentiated on the ballot paper.

    This was bound to lead to the chaos we're seeing now, as leavers on both ends argue that 'their' Brexit is the one, true Brexit. It's easy to throw insults at May and others, but no-one could devise a Brexit that would satisfy leavers and hence 'match' the referendum result.

    This was all predictable before the referendum, and was indeed predicted. But such voices were ignored as leavers were keener on winning than what would happen afterwards.

    Remain did likewise (financial sector workers and Momentum activists?) and it's not conceivable that our future relationship with the EU would have suited all Remain voters. Does that mean a Remain vote would have justified a referendum every couple of years to check that the broad church had held together?
  • NEW THREAD

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I don't think we should be forced into a Brexit nightmare. Leave is the path to ruin as plotted out by Leavers in a No Deal. It is not just a case of Leaving but finding a way of doing as little damage as possible to the economy and peoples lives.

    I amheir medical care because of their selfish cavalier attitude to other peoples lives. I don't think anyone ever died because of the European Union, Leave on the other hand could have the blood on their hands of many many innocent victims.

    BiB - I think this is a problem with politics in general (and not just the EU issue). So long as any pain is felt across a broad enough section of the population, then that's fine. We have so many special interest groups who politicians pander to that if you're not one of them you have to suck it up.

    Yes, I suspect the EU has never killed apreparations).
    Any country can announce its intention to withdraw from a treaty. NAFTA doesn't have a "clause" covering the exit of a country, but that wasn't an impidement to departure,

    In fact, a vanishingly small number of international treaties contain provisions for bringing them to a conclusion. Heck of the 210 different treaties signed between Switzerland and the EEC/EC/EU between 1972 and today, I don't think any contain a provision for exit. Yet, of those 210, perhaps only 180 are currently in force. Simply, new treaties came along and Switzerland and the EU ripped up old ones. (And some of these brought Switzerland and the EU closer together, and some of them moved them apart.)

    It is perfectly reasonable to argue for No Deal - although I find that many of those doing so don't appreciate the extent to which it would affect the UK's trading relationships with the rest of the world. But it is dishonest to suggest that this deal - or any subsequent one - is in any way "final".
    I hope you're right. I think there's a chance that will be tested should this deal be agreed.
    Ultimately the only way one country can force another to do what they want (eg stick to an unloved treaty) is by threat of violence and/or diplomatic pressure

    If the U.K. chooses to renegotiate the treaty it will be renegotiated
    The EU cannot force us to accept the Deal if we want to go to No Deal (which polling shows we clearly do not)

    However the EU has less to lose economically than we do from No Deal as we are a smaller percentage of their exports than they are to us, if it does get renegotiated it will either be on an even more favourable basis to the EU ie permanent single market and/or customs union membership, or because we vote to Remain in EUref2. We cannot force the EU to renegotiate it on our terms.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I am SO SO SO SO SO bored of this. Please god we Brexit asap and life can revert to focusing on everything else that's been neglected over the last 2 years...

    I'm a total layman on all this (as not overly obsessed with the EU) but by instinct a Clarke-ite 'wet' .... but it always seemed to me that DxEU was set up specifically to allow the true believers to at least take some ownership and involvement in implementing Brexit.... something many of that group seemed to have no interest in doing. The flamboyant campaigning was what they enjoyed, the dirty work of getting it done was for others.

    There was a first wave of these purists who exited stage left as soon as the referendum was won, having no interest in implementing the thing, perhaps as they had no idea how to other than their belief statement mantras.

    Ever since then we've seen more cutting and running to snipe at the sidelines even by those nominally leading that department. It's the ease of being the opposition rather than the implementer and so to be able to critique and not actually have to negotiate/compromise.

    They are getting Brexit and yet we all knew they'd never be happy with the version they would get....

    JUST GET IT DONE AND MOVE ON FFS.

    Rant over.

    Nope. The day after Brexit Day we've 15 months to decide in using the Transition extension. The security relationship is going in a separate Treaty and will cause CJEU/ECHR wars. The FTA will take years with most of the issues we are currently arguing about unresolved. Then the TCA will prove not to be temporary. Then the future Mobility Framework will prove to be FoM with massive extra administrative burden.

    We've at least 5 years and quite possibly a decade of this still to come.
    Disagree

    I think once we Brexit the media will lose interest. Everything you rightly cite above is in the “boring but important” category a dwill get done without most people concerning themselves about the details
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    Floater said:

    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    Politics is based on patronage rather than ability in all U.K. political parties, both in candidate selection and how MPs earn promotion. Hardly surprising that those with real ability leave politics to the mediocre and go elsewhere.

    Promotion yes up to a point ("I know him and trust him so..." is a powerful motivation), selection not so much IMO.

    Yes I think that's true up to a point Nick but i do think politics has lost something over the past couple of generations, perhaps because so many MPs are now political careerists who are, in general, much younger than their predecessors and have often spent the entire lives in politics. Many politicians of all parties appear to lack any solid belief in anything apart from their own advancement and they find it hard to connect with people outside politics because they have never worked in a "real" job.

    ry do they want to build? What cause would they go to the stake for?
    It’s hardly surprising. Being a British politician in 2018 is far less important and far more burdensome than it was in 1958, 1928, or 1888. The predecessors of today’s crop took part in controlling a power that ruled a quarter of the Earth, could treat with any other country as an equal at worst, had global military power and the highest GDP per capita in the world. Now we are a medium-sized country with 1% of the world’s population and 3% of its economy. Not only has the U.K. declined massively in relative terms, but MPs are now expected to work as a sort of amateur ombudsman for the bureaucratic state, whilst at the same time they have lost much of their legislative authority thanks to our E.U. membership. At the same time, the media spotlight is brighter and more hysterical than ever before.
    Which only serves to confirm how difficult it will be for us to survive if we cut all ties with our largest market, the EU, without becoming a client state of the USA.

    Though to be fair the Parliaments of the 16th or 17th centuries ie pre British Empire or Act of Union was probably representing a country of about the same relative size as now but then our links to Europe were cemented by intermarriage of our royal families and military and political alliances
    "cut all ties"

    Absolute bollocks
    No Deal certainly means out of the EU, the single market and customs union and tariffs on our exports to the EU
    But does not mean "cut all ties"

    As I said - absolute bollocks
    In terms of our economic and trade agreements and regulations as they currently stand No Deal effectively does
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    New thread.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,745
    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I don't think we should be forced into a Brexit nightmare. Leave is the path to ruin as plotted out by Leavers in a No Deal. It is not just a case of Leaving but finding a way of doing as little damage as possible to the economy and peoples lives.

    I amheir medical care because of their selfish cavalier attitude to other peoples lives. I don't think anyone ever died because of the European Union, Leave on the other hand could have the blood on their hands of many many innocent victims.

    BiB - I think this is a problem with politics in general (and not just the EU issue). So long as any pain is felt across a broad enough section of the population, then that's fine. We have so many special interest groups who politicians pander to that if you're not one of them you have to suck it up.

    Yes, I suspect the EU has never killed anyone. But that doesn't mean we should stay in it. As for our current predicament, I'm really not sure what I'd do if I was an MP. It angers me that we're having this discussion now, when we should have done this a year ago. I guess no parliament can bind its successors, so it's not inconceivable that we could just walk away at a later date (hopefully with some planning - though I wonder if the EU would throw their toys out of the pram if we started to make preparations).
    Any country can announce its intention to withdraw from a treaty. NAFTA doesn't have a "clause" covering the exit of a country, but that wasn't an impidement to departure,

    It is perfectly reasonable to argue for No Deal - although I find that many of those doing so don't appreciate the extent to which it would affect the UK's trading relationships with the rest of the world. But it is dishonest to suggest that this deal - or any subsequent one - is in any way "final".
    I hope you're right. I think there's a chance that will be tested should this deal be agreed.
    Ultimately the only way one country can force another to do what they want (eg stick to an unloved treaty) is by threat of violence and/or diplomatic pressure

    If the U.K. chooses to renegotiate the treaty it will be renegotiated
    Though the same old issues that have led us to this point on Customs and NI will still be there.

    Of course, a new Labour government may well have different solutions to these, but as for the Tories, the same logic will apply.

    There is no magic solution to geography and culture. Like it or not we are a European country and economy.
This discussion has been closed.