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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sir Graham Brady’s comments today make me think backing Theresa May not to be ousted this year is the best bet
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Except insofar as the ERG are not only completely impotent but all look like massive dicks.
https://twitter.com/MailSport/status/1064163856174538753
(I do my best to help)
I was tempted to say the ERG are like Mark Reckless without the defecting to UKIP.
On the other hand, if the ERG can’t even muster 48 letters and there are Tory MPs lying about having sent in letters, she might not lose her Brexit bill, even if it is nothing more than a surrender document.
Such a shame Brady doesnt publish the list of whose letters he has so we can all see who the liars are.
It seems to me that May remaining is a no brainer. The only way I can see her leaving would be if she were persuaded that that was the price of the deal passing and I am really struggling to find a scenario where that could arise.
'But as a Brexiter, he suggested the deal as currently drafted looks highly unlikely to secure a majority in the House of Commons, and he hopes the final political declaration about Britain’s future trading relationship - to be hammered out over the next few days, “gives considerably stronger grounds for optimism about the final nature of the deal”.'
Not sure it is a shame about not publishing the list of letters - if a vote is not triggered it would be annoying that it was leaked for so long that they were so close and just about to do it, and very annoying if people have been lying, but there's no alternative as it is surely unreasonable to publish a list if the threshold is never reached, since it is an internal party matter, technically.
The ERG won't win - they know that - but they can and will wound whether people vote with them or abstain. I've always said she needs 200 votes to continue - less than that and while she can survive, to all practical purposes she won't.
Even now there is a declared faction within her Cabinet that is looking to change the Deal. The extent to which her authority has disintegrated is she can do nothing about this.
A strong and confident leader would sack Leadsom, Gove and the others but she can't do that.
Will his approach succeed? Who knows.
I think her real problem though is that she's running out of replacements.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46238525
The ERG would accept that's an overwhelming mandate for her.
Her authority is already gone, not least because she is being openly contradicted by her Cabinet, and most of the rest are in hiding and preparing theire 'I did not vote to bring May down, wink wink, but with her gone I now put myself forward as leader' speeches.
So I don't think it is about restoring May's authority at all, or even necessarily, for the ERG, winning the vote. It's about showing the strengths of the various factions. Those voting against May will include more than just the ERG, so will reveal the number against the deal probably and possibly a few more. Since we already know that will be enough to vote down the deal I don't see why that means it won't go before parliament, so I think it is setting out those numbers so that once her deal is voted down, and she then resigns as I expect, all in the parliamentary party have an idea how many core loyalists there are, how many no dealers and new dealers combined, etc.
Then again, perhaps it's just a response to Baker claiming he has 48 letters already, and the increasingly irritable whispers from the loons about why no VonC has been announced.
OK, so this is Nadine Dorries, but we all knew that...
Mr. kle4, impotence is unfortunate, but waving it around for everyone to see is just foolish.
In unrelated news, I've just begun the Epic of Gilgamesh.
Would have been a surprise for her to have said anything else. She hasn’t got her surrender document on Brexit through Parliament, she has her own MPs in outright rebellion and she is totally inept at campaigning as we saw in the last election.
The EU have made it clear the WA is their "offer" and there's no appetite for a fundamental re-negotiation. I found the WA a tough read but clearly others have found some significant problems with it and it is much nearer BINO than some who wanted us to leave expected or wanted.
So there's the negotiation of now to get the WA in place to prevent us crashing out on 29/3/19 and the negotiation to come which ensures everything is in place so Transition ends on 31/12/20 and we fully exit the EU with no residual obligations or responsibilities.
Gary Streeter's idea (last thread) of a referendum between May's deal and Remain deserves attention - I can see it getting a majority in the Commons, as it brings together all the Remainers plus all the May loyalists. It would infuriate the ERG, but everything infuriates them, so no loss. It would be an interesting test of the theory that Corbyn is a secret Brexiter, since he and everyone else would need to choose between Remain and Just Outside. It would recognise the reality that full-on Brexit just isn't possible unless we accept massive disruption and/or a hard Irish border. But more to the point, it could actually resolve the issue.
I fail to see how going back to the unsatisfactory position that caused the referendum will suddenly make everyone satisfied.
As I've said before, starting from here all options are impossible. It's just a question of finding the least impossible. (FWIW I think that might still be the deal that is on the table, together with a stronger declaration on the final relationship).
Ffs is took a few hours to read on the night it was published. I’m disappointed that more pols haven’t read it.
I assume, anyway...
Still, it was about four millennia back, so the chances are you might get away with it...
The Labour leadership has spent many months skilfully, if cynically, ... pretending that it could negotiate all the benefits of membership of the EU while still leaving. We all know this is tripe. For the moment, Labour is just about hanging together around rejection of Mrs May’s deal. This is the common point that can still unite Mr Corbyn, his Remainer MPs and Labour members. The leadership will vote against the deal because it is a “Tory Brexit” and they think that combining with the Moggites in the division lobbies to defeat the government will somehow precipitate an early general election. Remainer Labour MPs will vote against the deal in the hope that doing so will pave the way to a further referendum. But if Mrs May’s deal goes down and there isn’t a general election, then what? There will be no hiding places left for the Labour leadership. Mr Corbyn will be confronted with the choice that he has been desperate to avoid.
Theresa May has made her choices. For others, the agonising has only just begun. It will soon be time for everyone else to take responsibility for fateful decisions of their own.
I've just finished the first tablet. The moral of which seems to be that men can be tamed by naked women, and a man without a friend is a bit of a git.
VM for you.