F1: no specials up I can see. Still bemused by Ricciardo at 4 for not being classified. He has the highest DNF rate of any driver, and has failed to finish 50% of the last 8 races.
That sounds a little akin to the coin flip fallacy, though, Mr.D. While Red Bull have had all sorts of problems with the engines, and Ricciardo's luck has been awful, I suspect the odds are about right.
And May's decisions to leave both the single market and the customs union and to trigger article 50 without a negotiating strategy were driven by her desire to prove to her backbenchers that she was a born again Brexiteer. The national interest was nowhere in sight.
Given that the EU refused to discuss anything prior to article 50, I think it had to be triggered. Otherwise we’d have just been talking to ourselves.
However, talking to ourselves, to decide what we wanted, before talking to the EU, could have been seen as a wise first step.
And then what when they say no? As what I think happened in reality.
Hearing that the bulk of the outstanding Arizona ballots are from Maricopa County.
If true that surely makes Silema favourite.
Not necessarily. The vote in Maricopa (so far) is 478,000 Sinema to 471,000 McSally.
I think the later vote tilts Democrat. Arizona has some huge counties, the vote out there is probably of a more Dem mix than that previously. The homogenous county theory works very well in states with a large number of counties (Montana) but less well in states with megacounties like Arizona.
It was an odd election overall. A 7% (give or take) lead for the Democrats ought to have resulted in bigger gains in State Legislatures, fairly comfortable wins in the Florida Senate and Governor's contest, a clear win in the Arizona Senate race, and a very close contest in the Ohio Governor's race.
Hearing that the bulk of the outstanding Arizona ballots are from Maricopa County.
If true that surely makes Silema favourite.
Not necessarily. The vote in Maricopa (so far) is 478,000 Sinema to 471,000 McSally.
I think the later vote tilts Democrat. Arizona has some huge counties, the vote out there is probably of a more Dem mix than that previously. The homogenous county theory works very well in states with a large number of counties (Montana) but less well in states with megacounties like Arizona.
It was an odd election overall. A 7% (give or take) lead for the Democrats ought to have resulted in bigger gains in State Legislatures, fairly comfortable wins in the Florida Senate and Governor's contest, a clear win in the Arizona Senate race, and a very close contest in the Ohio Governor's race.
Any notion of uniform swing in America is dead. Whilst Trump's wafer thin landslide is well understood I think people miss how narrow Obama's 2012 landslide was as well.
Forecasting the next presidential election is about understanding how very specific groups of people are going to vote.
Having watched Sadiq Khan on TV this morning with his response to the crime ridden streets of the City that he his mayor of, I can't get over what a terrible mayor he is. I don't understand why he is so highly rated. He is awful. Boris was different class to him and that must be the ultimate affront to his ability.
Crime ridden streets of the city (note lower case not upper case)?
I would need some new tights but could certainly show the rozzers what is required. Needs to be "No more Mr Nice Guy", shut the bleeding heart liberals up and get stuck in.
I think the big problem for the Democrats in Florida is the fact that it constantly imports truckloads of GOP voting oldies. They shouldn't write it off, but getting back the rust belt is probably easier.
Comments
While Red Bull have had all sorts of problems with the engines, and Ricciardo's luck has been awful, I suspect the odds are about right.
Forecasting the next presidential election is about understanding how very specific groups of people are going to vote.