politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB MidTerms Prize Competition – did you get closest to the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB MidTerms Prize Competition – did you get closest to the O’Rourke vote share?
Exactly a month ago we launched the PB Prize Midterms competition with the question being:
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bookseller: 48.35 and
YBarddCwsc: 48.28
With the former just nosing it.
Didn't do too badly on 48.52......
ii) @YBarddCwsc, 48.28
Bad luck, Mr. Cwsc, and congratulations to Mr. Bookseller.
Interesting but historical news you may say - well not entirely. The Arizona race could follow the same script, with first a slightly widening GOP lead - but as the slower counting Dem city areas (The counties in Az are very large so probably not entirely homogenous) come in,... personally I think it will tighten.
I have £20 at even money on Sinema and I don't believe the bet is dead yet !
Let's see.
Arizona is very very slow at counting too so this will take a while.
https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/arizona-senate-republicans-sue-county-recorders-election-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-adrian-fontes/1925719002/
https://twitter.com/neal_katyal/status/1060277105810964487?s=19
That would probably upgrade Trump to obstruction of justice.
Congrats Mr Bookseller!!!
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-16-races-still-too-close-to-call/
Dems currently at 6.2 on betfair
(In the interest of clarity I am on for small stakes, at lower odds, from a previous bet).
https://twitter.com/barristerbantz/status/1059919771016278016
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1060447791217102848
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1060448231782539264
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1060449500957999105
Those tweets are the kind of intellectual black and white box fitting exercise that I thought the 'free thinking' right despised.
If Mueller has evidence, then I suspect he’ll be trying to get it out in public (via indicting & requesting a judge unseal the evidence) asap.
Utter hyperbole.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46133262
France’s leading Jewish organisation, Crif, said it was “shocked” at the decision, which the French President announced on Wednesday.
“I consider it entirely legitimate that we pay homage to the marshals who led our army to victory,” Mr Macron said.
“Marshal Pétain was a great soldier in World War One.”...
After the war, Pétain was tried and convicted for treason. His death sentence was commuted to life imprisonment due to his age and First World War service. He died in 1951.
https://www.thejc.com/news/world/shock-emmanuel-macron-announces-french-nazi-marshal-pétain-honoured-first-world-war-service-1.472148
Who knew?
With regards to the latest proposal it May wants to bring it to parliament then I cannot see anything but defeat. I can only assume that May has decided it will be better to negotiate after a defeat rather than with the EU demanding more and more unrealistic outcomes.
I am ludicrously excited about winning and receiving the book. Thanks to Mike and everyone for maintaining such an excellent site. In lieu of a victory speech, can I just say that my own political views and engagement has been significantly deepened by years of 'lurking' and (occasional) posting on this site, and that is to the credit of everyone who contributes. It's becoming increasingly important to have somewhere where - though some of us profoundly disagree with each other - we can engage in robust political debate and banter, in a world getting more partisan by the day, and yet - paraphrasing Ben Goldacre - "it’s a bit more complicated than that".
Thank you
the two Daves could be the successors to the two Ronnies
No shades of gray, got it.
Fox hunting? Meh.
Is this bit true? Was it DD busking it as usual?
Helluva chip there, flyboy.
“Following my appointment as the unpaid chairman of the Government’s advisory committee on Building Better, Building Beautiful, I have been offended and hurt by suggestions I am anti-Semitic or in any way ‘Islamophobic’.
“Nothing could be further from the truth, and I wish to rebut these incorrect assertions.
“If people actually read my comments regarding the interplay between George Soros and Hungary they will realise they are not in any way anti-Semitic, indeed quite the opposite.
“Only two years ago I supported George Soros by making representations to Prime Minister Orban’s regime to keep open the Central European University so that intellectual freedom could continue to flourish in Hungary.
“My statements on Islamic states points only to the failure of these states, which is a fact. My views on Islam are well known and can be found in my book The West And The Rest.”
https://www.roger-scruton.com/articles/20-latest/550-statement-from-professor-sir-roger-scruton
https://twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1022422994222809088?s=21
https://twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1022423314717966337?s=21
It is all very depressing. All of us are a mixture of good and bad. The very same people who refuse to accept any fault at all in Corbyn over his attitudes to Jews and anti-semitism are all too willing to lob accusations of fascism and anti-semitism at people for not sharing a "received opinion". Most of the people who make these sorts of accusations are almost certainly guilty of the same sort of behaviour they condemn. Look at the vegan lady who received those stupid emails from the Waitrose editor. It turned out that she said "Good!" when seven people died in a Spanish bull run. Celebrating the death of people is, IMO, far more worthy of condemnation than an utterly bad taste joke. Why is it any less worthy of condemnation, for instance, than those idiots burning a model Grenfell Tower last week?
This sort of behaviour is utterly infantile, quite frightening in its implications and far too similar to the sort of behaviour exhibited like Trump for comfort.
if there is no deal, 80 per cent of the customs duties will go to the European Commission itself rather than the member states....
...In France, he’d be fighting against the pro-Brexit Marine Le Pen — one recent poll has her party on course to defeat Macron’s En Marche. It would, politically, help Macron to be able to point to how leaving the EU brings stagnation, not freedom. His team imagine pictures of a gridlocked Kent are to their political benefit. They believe they could use them as proof that populism comes at a price. They are, I understand, sanguine about the likely impact on Anglo-French relations....
That Raab is only now waking up to the problems is a telling demonstration of just how limited discussion of Brexit scenarios has been within the government.
PB has probably done a better job, for all the coatis tedium of Brexit arguments on here.
Mitterand refused to and it is perhaps worth remembering that Macron started out in the Socialists as a protege of Hollande. But this ambiguous view of its own past is something which cuts across the whole political spectrum in France.
See this "Even her recent statement that it was not France which rounded up Jews during the war but the Vichy regime, as if the latter had nothing to do with France, was no different to the justification given by President Mitterand (whose activities during the pre-war and early Vichy period did him no credit) for refusing to give an official apology to French Jews for what France did to them. “I will not apologise in the name of France,” he said in 1994. “The Republic had nothing to do with this. I do not believe France is responsible.” A sentiment echoed almost word for word by Le Pen in recent days. Still, given that President Chirac apologised on behalf of France in 1995, it is troubling – and disgraceful – that over two decades later Le Pen still uses the same sophistry used decades earlier by post-war politicians who, to be generous, needed a polite fiction to help heal a wounded nation."
in this - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/30/the-death-of-populism/
During Mitterrand's presidency, the grave was decorated with flowers 22 September 1984 (the day Mitterrand met Helmut Kohl at Verdun),[20] then on 15 June 1986 (70th anniversary of the Battle for Verdun) and every 11 November from 1987 to 1992. The practice stopped only after numerous protests from the Jewish community.[21]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitterrand_and_the_far_right
Have the Dems found the new RFK?
Martha McSally
Republican
856,848 49.4%
Kyrsten Sinema
Democrat
839,775 48.4
Angela Green
Green
38,978 2.2
Blast,damn and bollocks.
You can make reference to the battle of Verdun and have some ceremony at the battlefield. It is not necessary to do so at Petain's grave. But this is for the French to decide and the French have had a difficult history in the 20th century to come to terms with.
We simply need to accept that very talented people who have often done a great deal of good in one part of at one time in their lives can also have unpalatable views and have done bad things as well. It's what being human is.
https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1060447868107046912?s=21
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/11/07/trumps-reckless-economic-gamble-has-failed-political-noose-tightening/
The implication of that is that the actual lead in the popular vote must be around 7% or 8%, once you make the necessary adjustments e.g. for seats that were uncontested.
If the post to which he was being appointed had anything to do with social policy, I could entirely understand why he might be thought a totally unsuitable choice. His is, to put it politely, a bit of a plonker, with decidedly eccentric, and erratically argued philosophical views.
But the built environment ?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/753671/Building_Better_Commission_Submission_-_ToR.pdf
I'm not sure how much of an expert he is on this, but he has at least published on the subject, albeit quite some time ago.
Set against that, surely the chair of anything has to be some sort of consensus figure, and I can see the argument for his not being a great choice to lead something like this, as opposed to contribute to it.