Still struggling with this respiratory infection but just want to say a huge thank you to all the posters who have been so kind in sending their wishes to both my wife and my recovery which slowly continues
Reading through this thread and in particular David Davis and Dominic Raabs comments just makes one despair. They just have not thought this through and it seems we are going to end up in BINO which suits no one.
Dominic Grieve on Sky this morning talking absolute sense and it does make you wonder if remain will actually win the day. I am very conflicted on the whole issue
Despite what David Davis says, I expect that the Commons will vote in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement, because the alternatives are too unpleasant.
It's all about the Holy Trinity now: Labour leadership, ERG, & DUP. There aren't anywhere near enough (Labour) rebels to get the deal through, if all 3 vote against the Deal. Although their reasons are different, they all hate the deal enough and are entrenched to make supporting it difficult.
The one I see as impossible to budge is the Labour party; all their groundwork (6 tests etc) has been for voting against, and with no prospect of their tests being met, hatred of the Tories, and the strong movements for a 2nd vote and causing a fresh election, hard to see where any scope for compromise comes from - but the Tories might peel off a rebel or two more. Ultimately Theresa has rejected every attempt to reach out across party in negotiations, and she will reap what she has sown.
The DUP - they've folded over the budget and there are noises off, as well as distractions over the RHI enquiry now being written. I can see them finding reasons to support 'with great reluctance.'
The ERG - seem to have got more coherent over the past few weeks, even though they still don't have a plan that would survive contact outside their meetings, there are only so many pluses you can put after the word 'Canada' before it gets tricky. But there seem to be those set against, so maybe it's about May picking off individuals.
Still hard to see where that Commons majority comes from.
I'm not convinced that the ERG will fight to the bitter end, and I think there could be quite a lot of Labour abstentions.
You may be right on the ERG - but it looks to me like several Tory posters are convinced there will be lots of Labour abstentions, and the Labour posters aren't.
Are there Labour posters here who can comment - do you think there will be enough Labour votes to see May's deal over the line? Worried it looks like Tory wishful thinking right now.
I wonder what @bookseller might do with the book once they receive it?!?
Ha ha! Don't worry, I am such an election geek I am very much looking forward to receiving and reading the book (even though it will make painful reading in places). It might be a bit 'niche' for the bookshop with which I am closely associated...
On topic, fine effort by the Texas Liberals (about as good as those in East Ham ).
What ? NOT Liberals !!
Off topic, I find the controversy about Petain curious. Apart from the too-often forgotten experience of the Channel Islands, none of us knows or understands what it must be like in a conquered country, to have an alien soldier walk down your street with the power of life and death over you.
The only analogy we have was 1066 and the psychological disaster it was for the Saxons to be taken over, dispossessed and reduced to second class citizens by only 25,000 or so invading Normans. England was at the time one of the most prosperous and peaceful countries in Europe, exporting salt and silver - Duke William wasn't interested in holy relics or oaths, he knew what a financially lucrative prize England was as did the French and other nobles who joined his quest. Much safer than a Crusade.
Had the Germans invaded and conquered us in 1940 there would have been collaborators (not, oddly enough, Mosley according to his biographer but perhaps Fuller or Lloyd George or Hoare or maybe one or two others).
Yet Petain's record at Verdun and in WW1 stands up to inspection - in 1918 he was a hero and instrumental in pulling round the French Army after Nivelle and ensuring it could withstand the final German offensive in 1918 (aided by the fact the French rear contained food and drink and it was copious quantities of both that saved the Allies).
How far would any of us go - it's one thing to seek terms to avoid further unnecessary bloodshed and destruction with a battle already lost but it's another to acquiesce in the face of genocide - Petain wasn't alone of course - what of Laval?
The Chilcot style inquiry into Brexit is going to shred the reputations of so many politicians, especially the sunlit upland Brexiteers and the ones who thought it would be easy.
Yes, Theresa needs to make sure that Mr Barnier is kept in the loop this time. Raab may not know about the Dover crossing, but surely even he can send an email. Fortunately, the most impetuous characters, Boris and DD, have gone, so Theresa doesn't now have to worry about making everything revolve around their fragile sensibilities. Perhaps there's room for sunny optimism after all.
On topic, fine effort by the Texas Liberals (about as good as those in East Ham ).
What ? NOT Liberals !!
Off topic, I find the controversy about Petain curious. Apart from the too-often forgotten experience of the Channel Islands, none of us knows or understands what it must be like in a conquered country, to have an alien soldier walk down your street with the power of life and death over you.
The only analogy we have was 1066 and the psychological disaster it was for the Saxons to be taken over, dispossessed and reduced to second class citizens by only 25,000 or so invading Normans. England was at the time one of the most prosperous and peaceful countries in Europe, exporting salt and silver - Duke William wasn't interested in holy relics or oaths, he knew what a financially lucrative prize England was as did the French and other nobles who joined his quest. Much safer than a Crusade.
Had the Germans invaded and conquered us in 1940 there would have been collaborators (not, oddly enough, Mosley according to his biographer but perhaps Fuller or Lloyd George or Hoare or maybe one or two others).
Yet Petain's record at Verdun and in WW1 stands up to inspection - in 1918 he was a hero and instrumental in pulling round the French Army after Nivelle and ensuring it could withstand the final German offensive in 1918 (aided by the fact the French rear contained food and drink and it was copious quantities of both that saved the Allies).
How far would any of us go - it's one thing to seek terms to avoid further unnecessary bloodshed and destruction with a battle already lost but it's another to acquiesce in the face of genocide - Petain wasn't alone of course - what of Laval?
Perhaps Raab does not read pb where in the past we have spoken about the need for frictionless trade, of customs unions (and "a" versus "the"), of the gravitational model of international trade, and so on and so forth. We have even often discussed how best to turn Kent into lorry parks. Personally I blame RCS for not having made videos to help the dimmer Cabinet members.
I just hope that when seen in full context, Raab was actually making fun of the headbangers. It is too depressing otherwise.
Maybe routing so much freight through a single port is not a wise idea.
No, perhaps we could ask the Netherlands or Germany to move a bit closer so that Dover Calais is not the only short route?
From a strategic point of view, making use of several ports makes sense. Giving the President of France the ability to shut down a substantial part of our foreign trade was not wise.
I see there has been movement in the Arizona odds. Now 1.33/1.39.
I may be missing something here.
As of last night with 99% of the votes counted Sinema was 17,000 behind McSally. There are only just over 17,000 still to count. So Sinema would have to take just about all the uncounted votes to overhaul McSally. I don't see how that happens.
Yes. He called Hitler "the greatest living German" in 1936. He loathed Neville Chamberlain with a healthy passion and in September 1940 advocated a separate peace with Germany (during the Battle of Britain).
Churchill compared him to Petain in May 1941.
I'm not saying he would have actively collaborated with the invading Germans but to be a puppet Prime Minister - he had the advantage (to the Germans) of being known across the country which other alternatives were not. I think he could have been persuaded (as was Petain) that there was a time and a place to resist and that time had passed and it was now time to reach an accommodation.
I see there has been movement in the Arizona odds. Now 1.33/1.39.
I may be missing something here.
As of last night with 99% of the votes counted Sinema was 17,000 behind McSally. There are only just over 17,000 still to count. So Sinema would have to take just about all the uncounted votes to overhaul McSally. I don't see how that happens.
Am I being thick?
You're not being thick, but the figures shown don't include an estimated 500,000 early-voting ballots which haven't been counted yet.
I see there has been movement in the Arizona odds. Now 1.33/1.39.
I may be missing something here.
As of last night with 99% of the votes counted Sinema was 17,000 behind McSally. There are only just over 17,000 still to count. So Sinema would have to take just about all the uncounted votes to overhaul McSally. I don't see how that happens.
Am I being thick?
You're not being thick, but the figures shown don't include an estimated 500,000 early-voting ballots which haven't been counted yet.
Are there Labour posters here who can comment - do you think there will be enough Labour votes to see May's deal over the line? Worried it looks like Tory wishful thinking right now.
Until recently I would have predicted quite a few Labour rebels, possibly votes in favour rather than abstentions (abstention on such a defining issue being a real cop-out) but now I doubt there will be many, apart from the usual handful (Hoey, Stringer etc). This is partly because there is overwhelming pressure from party members on all sides to oppose it - everyone from Tony Blair on one wing to to Momentum on the other advocates opposition. And it is partly because there now seems to be a real chance of a second referendum - until recently anyone who opposed May's deal would have to say how they could get a better one but now they can simply say they want to put it back to the people. And as the government sinks deeper and deeper into the mire it becomes easier and easier to advocate a rethink of the whole idea.
I see there has been movement in the Arizona odds. Now 1.33/1.39.
I may be missing something here.
As of last night with 99% of the votes counted Sinema was 17,000 behind McSally. There are only just over 17,000 still to count. So Sinema would have to take just about all the uncounted votes to overhaul McSally. I don't see how that happens.
Am I being thick?
That 99% figure is nowhere near correct. There are about 600,000 ballots left to count I think.
Had the Germans invaded and conquered us in 1940 there would have been collaborators (not, oddly enough, Mosley according to his biographer but perhaps Fuller or Lloyd George ?
After WWII the Nazi death list of those to be summarily executed in the UK was published - communists, Trades Unionists, politicians, “deviants” and so forth.
As Noel Cowerd observed “To think, the people we’d have been seen dead with”.
@Dura_Ace - what’s your view on the Bundeswehr, Luftwaffe and Deutsche Marine these days? From what I’ve read, they have fairly serious shortcomings in terms of equipment availability and hours spent training.
Sorry, but the ability, or lack thereof, of politicians to negotiate a satisfactory outcome should have been a key element in the calculation of every voter. I was never persuaded by Boris's 'all we need to do is think three positive Brexit thoughts before breakfast' and I don't see why anyone else should have been.
.. .. which in turn means that the AZ race could easily go either way. The odds should be about Evens (as they were before the election). And therefore I've just topped upon the Dems at 3.5
Right charmer, Convicted criminal and runs fake news outlet Novara media. He previous claimed that Russian chemical attack in Salisbury could have been Israel.
I see there has been movement in the Arizona odds. Now 1.33/1.39.
I may be missing something here.
As of last night with 99% of the votes counted Sinema was 17,000 behind McSally. There are only just over 17,000 still to count. So Sinema would have to take just about all the uncounted votes to overhaul McSally. I don't see how that happens.
Am I being thick?
You're not being thick, but the figures shown don't include an estimated 500,000 early-voting ballots which haven't been counted yet.
I see there has been movement in the Arizona odds. Now 1.33/1.39.
I may be missing something here.
As of last night with 99% of the votes counted Sinema was 17,000 behind McSally. There are only just over 17,000 still to count. So Sinema would have to take just about all the uncounted votes to overhaul McSally. I don't see how that happens.
Am I being thick?
That 99% figure is nowhere near correct. There are about 600,000 ballots left to count I think.
But GOP voter outnumbered Dem voters fairly handily in the early vote.
Are there Labour posters here who can comment - do you think there will be enough Labour votes to see May's deal over the line? Worried it looks like Tory wishful thinking right now.
I imagine that May will get the Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey, but no-one else.
Are there Labour posters here who can comment - do you think there will be enough Labour votes to see May's deal over the line? Worried it looks like Tory wishful thinking right now.
'I imagine that May will get the Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey, but no-one else.
She dug this hole.'
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Nandy who represent Leave seats but voted Remain have said they will vote for May's Deal as a compromise as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border (Andy Burnham is also said to back May's Deal) as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal along with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Are there Labour posters here who can comment - do you think there will be enough Labour votes to see May's deal over the line? Worried it looks like Tory wishful thinking right now.
I imagine that May will get the Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey, but no-one else.
She dug this hole.
Isn't Hoey an ultra though? Presumably she'd see Theresa's deal as a betrayal and go for 'No Deal It Is Then'.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
In the end the vote will come down to national interest or political self interest.
Those who pursue the later may pay a price in the court of public opinion
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
They prefer to back Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davies?
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
In the end the vote will come down to national interest or political self interest.
Those who pursue the later may pay a price in the court of public opinion
This is exactly what I thought. The genuine Labour posters are saying that a rebellion will be small + usual suspects.
The Tory posters are talking of national interest, voting with JRM etc.
My golden rule is that Labour people are best placed to comment on what's going on within Labour, Tories to know the Tory party etc. It does sound like Conservatives are getting ahead of themselves here with how this will play within Labour - and setting themselves up for a very nasty shock.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
Labour MPs especially from Leave seats want to back a Deal though unless they are Corbynite diehards who want a general election now or 'Leave means Leave' diehards like Field and Hoey or Remain diehards like Umumma and Lammy and Bradshaw who want EUref2
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
In the end the vote will come down to national interest or political self interest.
Those who pursue the later may pay a price in the court of public opinion
This is exactly what I thought. The genuine Labour posters are saying that a rebellion will be small + usual suspects.
The Tory posters are talking of national interest etc.
My golden rule is that Labour people are best placed to comment on what's going on within Labour, Tories to know the Tory party etc. It does sound like Conservatives are getting ahead of themselves here with how this will play within Labour - and setting themselves up for a very nasty shock.
I am neither Tory nor Labour (though left-leaning) but I suspect a lot of Labour MPs will abstain given the risk of a no deal crash out if May's deal is rejected (assuming May's deal is to stay in the CU for an indeterminate period).
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
In the end the vote will come down to national interest or political self interest.
Those who pursue the later may pay a price in the court of public opinion
Propping up this failed minority government is in no-ones interest. In this case the political interest and national interest align.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
They prefer to back Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davies?
Mogg and Davies do not and will not command a majority in the HoC.
@Dura_Ace - what’s your view on the Bundeswehr, Luftwaffe and Deutsche Marine these days? From what I’ve read, they have fairly serious shortcomings in terms of equipment availability and hours spent training.
They spend about the same on defence as the UK and don't have quite as many capability gaps like SEAD due to not wasting money on marquee projects like ICBMs and aircraft carriers. Like all Eurofighter partner nations they have suffered due to its enormous cost and the ongoing 15 year argument over how to upgrade the radar.
Direct comparisons are difficult because the German armed forces have a very, very different culture to the British - probably as a result of their somewhat troubled history. When I was on 801NAS we did a squadron exchange with MFG.2 (German Naval Air Wing) at Eggebek when they had Tornados. We were set to fly all day and all night or, were that to be unavailable, search out the nearest facility for debauchery. For the Germans it was very much just a job and they went home to their families at 4:30pm on the dot. 2:30pm on a Freitag leaving the RN contingent wondering if we could hotwire their squadron VW and what the German for brothel was.
They do hardly any out of area deployments which means they are at a very low level of readiness but that and the aforementioned family friendly culture means they don't have the retention problems of the UK forces.
Things are changing though and they are preparing to spend more and very much see European collaboration outside NATO as the future. eg the new Franco-German KC-130 squadron at Evreux.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
Labour MPs especially from Leave seats want to back a Deal though unless they are Corbynite diehards who want a general election now or 'Leave means Leave' diehards like Field and Hoey or Remain diehards like Umumma and Lammy and Bradshaw who want EUref2
So who?
My list consists of Caroline Flint, Lisa Nandy, Gareth Snell and Ruth Smeeth.
That's 4.
Are there any other declared / likely rebels on the Labour side who didn't originally back Brexit?
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
In the end the vote will come down to national interest or political self interest.
Those who pursue the later may pay a price in the court of public opinion
I think it is fair to say that most of the decisions that have been made from the very start of this Brexit debacle have been mainly driven by political and personal self interest, so the court of public opinion is going to be spoilt for choice as to where to pin the blame. Of course, I guess the media will guide them on this.
I suspect Jeff Roe is being mischievous, as Republicans calculate they could win against a candidate running as an unabashed liberal.
I disagree with the analysis which argues that a more centrist candidate would have beaten Cruz - I think that's ridiculous, and dismisses how O'Rourke has expanded the Democrats' base in Texas through his extra,ely energetic campaigning - but it might just be the right argument for the Presidential election in 2020 (and Texas isn't going to be in play).
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
They prefer to back Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davies?
Mogg and Davies do not and will not command a majority in the HoC.
But you just said Labour would combine with them to reject any deal. They can't have it both ways, they have to choose their bedfellows (or abstain, which is perhaps more likely in many cases).
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
In the end the vote will come down to national interest or political self interest.
Those who pursue the later may pay a price in the court of public opinion
Propping up this failed minority government is in no-ones interest. In this case the political interest and national interest align.
Hah, classic Equal Protection nonsense from the GOP. Its amazing how limited in scope the 14th amendment is to them up until the point it stops people's vote being counted.
I suspect Jeff Roe is being mischievous, as Republicans calculate they could win against a candidate running as an unabashed liberal.
I disagree with the analysis which argues that a more centrist candidate would have beaten Cruz - I think that's ridiculous, and dismisses how O'Rourke has expanded the Democrats' base in Texas through his extra,ely energetic campaigning - but it might just be the right argument for the Presidential election in 2020 (and Texas isn't going to be in play).
Yes, I don't see any circumstances in which the number of Republicans who did not vote for Cruz could be any greater than they were.
Can you use the railcard in peak hours, though? If not that would limit its value for commuters.
On tubes and buses yes but not trains before 9 30am though there is no evening restriction.
I am 60 next month and it will save me more than £100 per month commuting costs but I agree it's too generous and should not be available to those below state pension age.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
They prefer to back Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davies?
Mogg and Davies do not and will not command a majority in the HoC.
But you just said Labour would combine with them to reject any deal. They can't have it both ways, they have to choose their bedfellows (or abstain, which is perhaps more likely in many cases).
If the government can't get its own key legislation through that is the problem for the government not the opposition, which has a duty to oppose.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
In the end the vote will come down to national interest or political self interest.
Those who pursue the later may pay a price in the court of public opinion
I think it is fair to say that most of the decisions that have been made from the very start of this Brexit debacle have been mainly driven by political and personal self interest, so the court of public opinion is going to be spoilt for choice as to where to pin the blame. Of course, I guess the media will guide them on this.
Actually, I think your point on the media is well made. It will be interesting how some of the interviews with politicians will play out
@Dura_Ace - what’s your view on the Bundeswehr, Luftwaffe and Deutsche Marine these days? From what I’ve read, they have fairly serious shortcomings in terms of equipment availability and hours spent training.
They spend about the same on defence as the UK and don't have quite as many capability gaps like SEAD due to not wasting money on marquee projects like ICBMs and aircraft carriers. Like all Eurofighter partner nations they have suffered due to its enormous cost and the ongoing 15 year argument over how to upgrade the radar.
Direct comparisons are difficult because the German armed forces have a very, very different culture to the British - probably as a result of their somewhat troubled history. When I was on 801NAS we did a squadron exchange with MFG.2 (German Naval Air Wing) at Eggebek when they had Tornados. We were set to fly all day and all night or, were that to be unavailable, search out the nearest facility for debauchery. For the Germans it was very much just a job and they went home to their families at 4:30pm on the dot. 2:30pm on a Freitag leaving the RN contingent wondering if we could hotwire their squadron VW and what the German for brothel was.
They do hardly any out of area deployments which means they are at a very low level of readiness but that and the aforementioned family friendly culture means they don't have the retention problems of the UK forces.
Things are changing though and they are preparing to spend more and very much see European collaboration outside NATO as the future. eg the new Franco-German KC-130 squadron at Evreux.
Considering the F35 has been adopted by the UK, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway - and now the Belgians on the grounds it is cheaper than the European alternative - is there a future for a European competitor ?
And is our entire military completely debauched, or just the elite units... ?
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
In the end the vote will come down to national interest or political self interest.
Those who pursue the later may pay a price in the court of public opinion
Propping up this failed minority government is in no-ones interest. In this case the political interest and national interest align.
And the outcome is ?
The general election or a referendum. Possibly both.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
Labour MPs especially from Leave seats want to back a Deal though unless they are Corbynite diehards who want a general election now or 'Leave means Leave' diehards like Field and Hoey or Remain diehards like Umumma and Lammy and Bradshaw who want EUref2
They will be under huge pressure not to back what everyone - even many Tories - will be saying is a crap deal. They will be under threat of deselection on the one hand and the condemnation of history on the other. They are being bombarded with "evidence" that voters are changing their minds. And most of them are not natural rebels. I think they will find reasons to vote against.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
In the end the vote will come down to national interest or political self interest.
Those who pursue the later may pay a price in the court of public opinion
Propping up this failed minority government is in no-ones interest. In this case the political interest and national interest align.
And the outcome is ?
The general election or a referendum. Possibly both.
A GE would make no difference but a referendum might, but even that is not certain
Considering the F35 has been adopted by the UK, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway - and now the Belgians on the grounds it is cheaper than the European alternative - is there a future for a European competitor ?
Yes, but there is only a future for exactly one European competitor to the next generation of US tactical jets (PCA and F/A-XX) and it will probably involve Dassault and Saab so "Team Tempest" is a complete non-starter.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
They prefer to back Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davies?
Mogg and Davies do not and will not command a majority in the HoC.
But you just said Labour would combine with them to reject any deal. They can't have it both ways, they have to choose their bedfellows (or abstain, which is perhaps more likely in many cases).
If the government can't get its own key legislation through that is the problem for the government not the opposition, which has a duty to oppose.
Er, no, it has a duty to act in the interests of constituents and the country. Hard to see how rejecting a deal, risking chaos, could be seen as doing that, especially since the claimed routes to resolution (referendum or GE) look extremely unlikely to work.
But if Labour wants to take the electoral hit, it's up to them. What almost everyone (except Big G and a few others here) are failing to take into account is the massive sigh of relief from business if a deal is agreed. The pound will rise and the airwaves will be stuffed full of people saying how this is good for employment and the economy. Will Labour really be wise to kibosh that in a naked piece of partisan dice-rolling?
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
Labour MPs especially from Leave seats want to back a Deal though unless they are Corbynite diehards who want a general election now or 'Leave means Leave' diehards like Field and Hoey or Remain diehards like Umumma and Lammy and Bradshaw who want EUref2
They will be under huge pressure not to back what everyone - even many Tories - will be saying is a crap deal. They will be under threat of deselection on the one hand and the condemnation of history on the other. They are being bombarded with "evidence" that voters are changing their minds. And most of them are not natural rebels. I think they will find reasons to vote against.
Flint, Nandy, Burnham etc are coming out and backing May's Deal because they commendably put the national interest ahead of petty party politics given No Deal risks the collapse of the economy and the break up of the UK.
They also respect the Leave vote unlike those who want a second referendum like Umunna and Bradshaw and Lammy. In any case even on the new Survation poll both Nandy and Flint's seats would still vote Leave so they also respect their constituents
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
They prefer to back Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davies?
Mogg and Davies do not and will not command a majority in the HoC.
But you just said Labour would combine with them to reject any deal. They can't have it both ways, they have to choose their bedfellows (or abstain, which is perhaps more likely in many cases).
If the government can't get its own key legislation through that is the problem for the government not the opposition, which has a duty to oppose.
Er, no, it has a duty to act in the interests of constituents and the country. Hard to see how rejecting a deal, risking chaos, could be seen as doing that, especially since the claimed routes to resolution (referendum or GE) look extremely unlikely to work.
But if Labour wants to take the electoral hit, it's up to them. What almost everyone (except Big G and a few others here) are failing to take into account is the massive sigh of relief from business if a deal is agreed. The pound will rise and the airwaves will be stuffed full of people saying how this is good for employment and the economy. Will Labour really be wise to kibosh that in a naked piece of partisan dice-rolling?
Those people being the CBI, Andy Burnham and the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, as per the leaked notes from Robbie Gibb's briefing? They might be a little tricky for the airwaves to pin down. And it's unlikely that anybody plausible would replace them.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
Labour MPs especially from Leave seats want to back a Deal though unless they are Corbynite diehards who want a general election now or 'Leave means Leave' diehards like Field and Hoey or Remain diehards like Umumma and Lammy and Bradshaw who want EUref2
So who?
My list consists of Caroline Flint, Lisa Nandy, Gareth Snell and Ruth Smeeth.
That's 4.
Are there any other declared / likely rebels on the Labour side who didn't originally back Brexit?
Plenty and I expect most Tories bar ERG diehards will fall into line ultimately and the DUP will back it too as the Customs Union will apply to the whole UK until an arbitration panel decides on the Irish border
Considering the F35 has been adopted by the UK, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway - and now the Belgians on the grounds it is cheaper than the European alternative - is there a future for a European competitor ?
Yes, but there is only a future for exactly one European competitor to the next generation of US tactical jets (PCA and F/A-XX) and it will probably involve Dassault and Saab so "Team Tempest" is a complete non-starter.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
They prefer to back Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davies?
Mogg and Davies do not and will not command a majority in the HoC.
But you just said Labour would combine with them to reject any deal. They can't have it both ways, they have to choose their bedfellows (or abstain, which is perhaps more likely in many cases).
If the government can't get its own key legislation through that is the problem for the government not the opposition, which has a duty to oppose.
Er, no, it has a duty to act in the interests of constituents and the country. Hard to see how rejecting a deal, risking chaos, could be seen as doing that, especially since the claimed routes to resolution (referendum or GE) look extremely unlikely to work.
But if Labour wants to take the electoral hit, it's up to them. What almost everyone (except Big G and a few others here) are failing to take into account is the massive sigh of relief from business if a deal is agreed. The pound will rise and the airwaves will be stuffed full of people saying how this is good for employment and the economy. Will Labour really be wise to kibosh that in a naked piece of partisan dice-rolling?
Those people being the CBI, Andy Burnham and the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, as per the leaked notes from Robbie Gibb's briefing? They might be a little tricky for the airwaves to pin down. And it's unlikely that anybody plausible would replace them.
Yes, those and many others. They're not suddenly going to say a deal doesn't matter just because someone leaked a memo.
I'd love to see O'Rourke vs Trumpton in 2020. I think Beto would be hard for him to counter and would mostly, quite coolly, laugh in the face of the Orange One to delicious effect.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
They prefer to back Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davies?
Mogg and Davies do not and will not command a majority in the HoC.
But you just said Labour would combine with them to reject any deal. They can't have it both ways, they have to choose their bedfellows (or abstain, which is perhaps more likely in many cases).
If the government can't get its own key legislation through that is the problem for the government not the opposition, which has a duty to oppose.
Er, no, it has a duty to act in the interests of constituents and the country. Hard to see how rejecting a deal, risking chaos, could be seen as doing that, especially since the claimed routes to resolution (referendum or GE) look extremely unlikely to work.
But if Labour wants to take the electoral hit, it's up to them. What almost everyone (except Big G and a few others here) are failing to take into account is the massive sigh of relief from business if a deal is agreed. The pound will rise and the airwaves will be stuffed full of people saying how this is good for employment and the economy. Will Labour really be wise to kibosh that in a naked piece of partisan dice-rolling?
Those people being the CBI, Andy Burnham and the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, as per the leaked notes from Robbie Gibb's briefing? They might be a little tricky for the airwaves to pin down. And it's unlikely that anybody plausible would replace them.
Yes, those and many others. They're not suddenly going to say a deal doesn't matter just because someone leaked a memo.
I cited them because they indicated, after the briefing notes emerged, that they wouldn't oblige. The only people who will be saying that the deal is good are May loyalists, who would be unlikely to swing many Labour MPs over to the Flint position.
Considering the F35 has been adopted by the UK, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway - and now the Belgians on the grounds it is cheaper than the European alternative - is there a future for a European competitor ?
Yes, but there is only a future for exactly one European competitor to the next generation of US tactical jets (PCA and F/A-XX) and it will probably involve Dassault and Saab so "Team Tempest" is a complete non-starter.
I cited them because they indicated, after the briefing notes emerged, that they wouldn't oblige. The only people who will be saying that the deal is good are May loyalists, who would be unlikely to swing many Labour MPs over to the Flint position.
Burnham was non commital, remember the r4 interview. Said a deal would obviously be welcome.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
They prefer to back Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davies?
Mogg and Davies do not and will not command a majority in the HoC.
But you just said Labour would combine with them to reject any deal. They can't have it both ways, they have to choose their bedfellows (or abstain, which is perhaps more likely in many cases).
If the government can't get its own key legislation through that is the problem for the government not the opposition, which has a duty to oppose.
Er, no, it has a duty to act in the interests of constituents and the country. Hard to see how rejecting a deal, risking chaos, could be seen as doing that, especially since the claimed routes to resolution (referendum or GE) look extremely unlikely to work.
Propping up this government is not in the interests of the constituents and the country. It might be in the interests of a certain wing of the Tory party, but that is not the same thing.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
Labour MPs especially from Leave seats want to back a Deal though unless they are Corbynite diehards who want a general election now or 'Leave means Leave' diehards like Field and Hoey or Remain diehards like Umumma and Lammy and Bradshaw who want EUref2
They will be under huge pressure not to back what everyone - even many Tories - will be saying is a crap deal. They will be under threat of deselection on the one hand and the condemnation of history on the other. They are being bombarded with "evidence" that voters are changing their minds. And most of them are not natural rebels. I think they will find reasons to vote against.
Flint, Nandy, Burnham etc are coming out and backing May's Deal because they commendably put the national interest ahead of petty party politics given No Deal risks the collapse of the economy and the break up of the UK.
They also respect the Leave vote unlike those who want a second referendum like Umunna and Bradshaw and Lammy. In any case even on the new Survation poll both Nandy and Flint's seats would still vote Leave so they also respect their constituents
Flint, Nancy, Burnham etc have NOT backed May's deal. The most any of them have said is that they MIGHT vote for her deal IF THE ALTERNATIVE WAS NO DEAL. But there will be many people advocating other options, such as an extension of the negotiating period and if the EU makes positive noises about this, which they may well do as an alternative to a cliff edge departure, then ideas such as this could easily gain traction very quickly.
I disagree, Labour MPs like Flint and Namdy who represent Leave seats have said they will vote for May's Deal as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border as will the LD MP Stephen Lloyd but Hoey will likely vote against the Deal a long with Field and Stringer ie the main Labour Leavers as it keeps the UK in the Customs Union which they do not considerto be a proper Brexit
Some may abstain. But there will be huge pressure and there is no wing of the Labour party that wants to back May.
They prefer to back Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davies?
Mogg and Davies do not and will not command a majority in the HoC.
But you just said Labour would combine with them to reject any deal. They can't have it both ways, they have to choose their bedfellows (or abstain, which is perhaps more likely in many cases).
If the government can't get its own key legislation through that is the problem for the government not the opposition, which has a duty to oppose.
Er, no, it has a duty to act in the interests of constituents and the country. Hard to see how rejecting a deal, risking chaos, could be seen as doing that, especially since the claimed routes to resolution (referendum or GE) look extremely unlikely to work.
Propping up this government is not in the interests of the constituents and the country. It might be in the interests of a certain wing of the Tory party, but that is not the same thing.
What a partisan approach.
So you would rather have No Deal and wreck the economy and possibly the Union just on the off chance you could force a No Confidence vote and general election which Labour may lose anyway?
Comments
There's an oscar beckoning for Best Comedy Sketchwriter.
On topic, fine effort by the Texas Liberals (about as good as those in East Ham ).
What ? NOT Liberals !!
Off topic, I find the controversy about Petain curious. Apart from the too-often forgotten experience of the Channel Islands, none of us knows or understands what it must be like in a conquered country, to have an alien soldier walk down your street with the power of life and death over you.
The only analogy we have was 1066 and the psychological disaster it was for the Saxons to be taken over, dispossessed and reduced to second class citizens by only 25,000 or so invading Normans. England was at the time one of the most prosperous and peaceful countries in Europe, exporting salt and silver - Duke William wasn't interested in holy relics or oaths, he knew what a financially lucrative prize England was as did the French and other nobles who joined his quest. Much safer than a Crusade.
Had the Germans invaded and conquered us in 1940 there would have been collaborators (not, oddly enough, Mosley according to his biographer but perhaps Fuller or Lloyd George or Hoare or maybe one or two others).
Yet Petain's record at Verdun and in WW1 stands up to inspection - in 1918 he was a hero and instrumental in pulling round the French Army after Nivelle and ensuring it could withstand the final German offensive in 1918 (aided by the fact the French rear contained food and drink and it was copious quantities of both that saved the Allies).
How far would any of us go - it's one thing to seek terms to avoid further unnecessary bloodshed and destruction with a battle already lost but it's another to acquiesce in the face of genocide - Petain wasn't alone of course - what of Laval?
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1060501385521909761?s=20
As of last night with 99% of the votes counted Sinema was 17,000 behind McSally. There are only just over 17,000 still to count. So Sinema would have to take just about all the uncounted votes to overhaul McSally. I don't see how that happens.
Am I being thick?
Churchill compared him to Petain in May 1941.
I'm not saying he would have actively collaborated with the invading Germans but to be a puppet Prime Minister - he had the advantage (to the Germans) of being known across the country which other alternatives were not. I think he could have been persuaded (as was Petain) that there was a time and a place to resist and that time had passed and it was now time to reach an accommodation.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-arizona-senate/arizona-could-wait-a-week-to-learn-who-its-next-u-s-senator-will-be-idUSKCN1NC354
Yeah, although no idea what I was doing and probably wasn't worth the wait.
Thanks for the help and tolerance. You do realise I will forget what to do don't you.
Yours one idiot.
As Noel Cowerd observed “To think, the people we’d have been seen dead with”.
Right charmer, Convicted criminal and runs fake news outlet Novara media. He previous claimed that Russian chemical attack in Salisbury could have been Israel.
https://order-order.com/2016/09/19/top-corbynista-convicted-role-bank-attack/
So it comes down to whether early voters were more likely to favour the red team or the blue then.
I imagine that May will get the Brexit Labour MPs like Hoey, but no-one else.
She dug this hole.
http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics
Roberto --> Berto --> Beto
https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/arizona-senate-republicans-sue-county-recorders-election-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-adrian-fontes/1925719002/
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1060502937527566336
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1060505879466987521
Those who pursue the later may pay a price in the court of public opinion
Quickest way to switch to vanilla forums is to click on the time below any poster’s name.
You might have to sign in again to post but you get the image icon on your posting box that way.
The Tory posters are talking of national interest, voting with JRM etc.
My golden rule is that Labour people are best placed to comment on what's going on within Labour, Tories to know the Tory party etc. It does sound like Conservatives are getting ahead of themselves here with how this will play within Labour - and setting themselves up for a very nasty shock.
Can you use the railcard in peak hours, though? If not that would limit its value for commuters.
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/1060505346333130752?s=20
I'm only guessing, of course.
https://twitter.com/rogerhelmermep/status/1060491627951804416?s=21
Direct comparisons are difficult because the German armed forces have a very, very different culture to the British - probably as a result of their somewhat troubled history. When I was on 801NAS we did a squadron exchange with MFG.2 (German Naval Air Wing) at Eggebek when they had Tornados. We were set to fly all day and all night or, were that to be unavailable, search out the nearest facility for debauchery. For the Germans it was very much just a job and they went home to their families at 4:30pm on the dot. 2:30pm on a Freitag leaving the RN contingent wondering if we could hotwire their squadron VW and what the German for brothel was.
They do hardly any out of area deployments which means they are at a very low level of readiness but that and the aforementioned family friendly culture means they don't have the retention problems of the UK forces.
Things are changing though and they are preparing to spend more and very much see European collaboration outside NATO as the future. eg the new Franco-German KC-130 squadron at Evreux.
My list consists of Caroline Flint, Lisa Nandy, Gareth Snell and Ruth Smeeth.
That's 4.
Are there any other declared / likely rebels on the Labour side who didn't originally back Brexit?
I disagree with the analysis which argues that a more centrist candidate would have beaten Cruz - I think that's ridiculous, and dismisses how O'Rourke has expanded the Democrats' base in Texas through his extra,ely energetic campaigning - but it might just be the right argument for the Presidential election in 2020 (and Texas isn't going to be in play).
I am 60 next month and it will save me more than £100 per month commuting costs but I agree it's too generous and should not be available to those below state pension age.
And is our entire military completely debauched, or just the elite units... ?
The RAF just polish their cars.
But if Labour wants to take the electoral hit, it's up to them. What almost everyone (except Big G and a few others here) are failing to take into account is the massive sigh of relief from business if a deal is agreed. The pound will rise and the airwaves will be stuffed full of people saying how this is good for employment and the economy. Will Labour really be wise to kibosh that in a naked piece of partisan dice-rolling?
They also respect the Leave vote unlike those who want a second referendum like Umunna and Bradshaw and Lammy. In any case even on the new Survation poll both Nandy and Flint's seats would still vote Leave so they also respect their constituents
He is -151 in my betfair book.
Maybe write a few headlines about the EVIL TORIES.
Easy, isn't it?
A euphemism ?
And thanks.
Wasn’t he a Petainist? Or was he a Poujadist? It’s been a while since I bothered with the Fourth Republic
So you would rather have No Deal and wreck the economy and possibly the Union just on the off chance you could force a No Confidence vote and general election which Labour may lose anyway?