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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Nation once again? – Part 3 lessons from abroad

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,507
    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Can some of our Kremlinologists tell whether this is some sort of elaborate House of Cards style stratagem to bring down the government or is it just principled opportunism?

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/21/labour-mps-plot-ambush-northern-ireland-abortion-law

    Mostly shit-stirring.
    If the DUP were propping up a Labour Government, they’d mostly keep quiet about it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Scott_P said:
    Isn't it already illegal? I thought there was an amendment to a previous act that stated there could be no additional border between GB and NI?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    We can always hope that this rotten govt is about to wade even deeper into the poo....
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    We could have a General Election on Thursday 27th December to liven up that dreadful lacuna between Xmas and NY.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    We could have a General Election on Thursday 27th December to liven up that dreadful lacuna between Xmas and NY.

    Nah, don’t interfere with my Christmas sales schedule.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Dura_Ace said:

    We could have a General Election on Thursday 27th December to liven up that dreadful lacuna between Xmas and NY.

    Final debates on Xmas day? Probably better than Dr Who is.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Why would the EU give a one year extension to Article 50?

    Opportunity to keep delaying Brexit until it goes away?
  • Dura_Ace said:

    We could have a General Election on Thursday 27th December to liven up that dreadful lacuna between Xmas and NY.

    Final debates on Xmas day? Probably better than Dr Who is.
    Wash your mouth out.

    Am loving Doctor Who being set in Sheffield.
  • Sean_F said:
    fieldwork a week ago...
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Dura_Ace said:

    We could have a General Election on Thursday 27th December to liven up that dreadful lacuna between Xmas and NY.

    Would still have plenty of mince pies for the election results night.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    Scott_P said:
    o2 sent me a bottle of champagne the other day for being with them so long.
    I think perhaps it might be for spending so much money with them for so long... ?
  • The Brexit deal is 95% done.
    Humans share 98% of their DNA with chimpanzees.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Dura_Ace said:

    We could have a General Election on Thursday 27th December to liven up that dreadful lacuna between Xmas and NY.

    Final debates on Xmas day? Probably better than Dr Who is.
    It makes as much sense as anything that's happened in the last two years.

    May = The Rani (awkward obsessive overwhelmingly rejected by the audience)

    Corbyn = Davros (head like an infected bollock and an appetite for radical change)

    Cable = The Silence (you forget he exists the moment you can't see him)
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301

    The Brexit deal is 95% done.
    Humans share 98% of their DNA with chimpanzees.

    Raw sewage is 99.9% water.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited October 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    We could have a General Election on Thursday 27th December to liven up that dreadful lacuna between Xmas and NY.

    Final debates on Xmas day? Probably better than Dr Who is.
    It makes as much sense as anything that's happened in the last two years.

    May = The Rani (awkward obsessive overwhelmingly rejected by the audience)

    Corbyn = Davros (head like an infected bollock and an appetite for radical change)

    Cable = The Silence (you forget he exists the moment you can't see him)
    The ERG = the Weeping Angels (they move when you aren't looking in an attempt to suck the energy out of you and throw you back in time but for so long as you keep your eyes on them they're motionless)
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    We could have a General Election on Thursday 27th December to liven up that dreadful lacuna between Xmas and NY.

    Final debates on Xmas day? Probably better than Dr Who is.
    It makes as much sense as anything that's happened in the last two years.

    May = The Rani (awkward obsessive overwhelmingly rejected by the audience)

    Corbyn = Davros (head like an infected bollock and an appetite for radical change)

    Cable = The Silence (you forget he exists the moment you can't see him)
    The Maybot and the Corbynites sound like they should be classic Doctor Who villains. We had the Green Death in the Jon Pertwee era so maybe it could be re-imagined as the Yellow Peril?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    The Brexit deal is 95% done.

    Rather like the pareto 80/20 split it seems, the final 20% takes 80% of the time.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    The Brexit deal is 95% done.
    Humans share 98% of their DNA with chimpanzees.

    The richest 5% hold 72.6% of the world's wealth (OECD, 2012).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited October 2018

    Why would the EU give a one year extension to Article 50?

    I think it's a one year extension to the "transition" period, not article 50? Practical reason. The transition period is enabled by the simplified Article 50 process. The replacement to the transition, probably a second "transition" will have to conform to the treaty processes set out by the EU'S constitution, which requires a full schedule of ratifications. Three years allows more time for that and reduces the risk of a No Deal gap before the next treaty is ratified.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Have there been any opinion polls on how the people of England would vote in an English Independence (from the UK) referendum?

    That would be very hard on Wales, where there is every indication of strong support for remaining in the union, as well as having an economy that might struggle outwith.
    I'd prefer English and Welsh independence rather than just English.
    About 15% in England support English independence last time that was included as an option in a poll.

    If English independence is not included as an option over 50% of English voters back an English Parliament

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_independence
    I’d be happily part of a modern 21st century nation called ‘England & Wales’.
    I would prefer to be part of the UK but if it ends up No Deal Brexit it may well be that ends up being England and Wales in 5 to 10 years time
    England as a single country? I think you are forgetting the internal tensions between the regions, and London. With Wales and Scotland seceding from the Union, Northern Ireland join the Republic of Ireland, then those tensions will increase along with the wish for self determination Pandora's box?
  • Great typo on the Grauniad live politics blog:

    Philip Hammond is resisting calls to use his main policy intervention of the year to carry out a major overhaul of business rats
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    OchEye said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Have there been any opinion polls on how the people of England would vote in an English Independence (from the UK) referendum?

    That would be very hard on Wales, where there is every indication of strong support for remaining in the union, as well as having an economy that might struggle outwith.
    I'd prefer English and Welsh independence rather than just English.
    About 15% in England support English independence last time that was included as an option in a poll.

    If English independence is not included as an option over 50% of English voters back an English Parliament

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_independence
    I’d be happily part of a modern 21st century nation called ‘England & Wales’.
    I would prefer to be part of the UK but if it ends up No Deal Brexit it may well be that ends up being England and Wales in 5 to 10 years time
    England as a single country? I think you are forgetting the internal tensions between the regions, and London. With Wales and Scotland seceding from the Union, Northern Ireland join the Republic of Ireland, then those tensions will increase along with the wish for self determination Pandora's box?
    London is indivisible from the rest of England for the same reason Wales is, and more so. Traffic throughflows and proximity to a high population density area. In addition it is completely surrounded.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    I wonder what it says of mr bridgen that people thought it was and how fair it was.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    The Brexit deal is 95% done.
    Humans share 98% of their DNA with chimpanzees.

    The richest 5% hold 72.6% of the world's wealth (OECD, 2012).
    That puts an American qualified doctor with $250,000 of student debts renting s flat poorer than a Chinese subsistent peasant living in absolute poverty on a small holding.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    I note May is now in the 'danger zone'
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siwpn14IE7E
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Brexit 95% done says TM. Sounds like we're ahead of schedule!

    Err...there seems to have been no progress on the political declaration. So why is May saying we are close to a deal?

    I note that both sides have said publicly that this is nearly done. That's a strange thing to say if you're nowhere, since you'll look a bit daft in less than 6 months time.
    It's wishful thinking, since it doesn't matter how close they are if they sticking points continue to stick.
  • NEW THREAD

  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    OchEye said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Have there been any opinion polls on how the people of England would vote in an English Independence (from the UK) referendum?

    That would be very hard on Wales, where there is every indication of strong support for remaining in the union, as well as having an economy that might struggle outwith.
    I'd prefer English and Welsh independence rather than just English.
    About 15% in England support English independence last time that was included as an option in a poll.

    If English independence is not included as an option over 50% of English voters back an English Parliament

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_independence
    I’d be happily part of a modern 21st century nation called ‘England & Wales’.
    I would prefer to be part of the UK but if it ends up No Deal Brexit it may well be that ends up being England and Wales in 5 to 10 years time
    England as a single country? I think you are forgetting the internal tensions between the regions, and London. With Wales and Scotland seceding from the Union, Northern Ireland join the Republic of Ireland, then those tensions will increase along with the wish for self determination Pandora's box?
    Berwick Rangers play in the Scottish Football League. Shoe-in for secession.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    geoffw said:

    Her pride in being a "bloody difficult woman" is the problem. She thinks obstinacy is a virtue even when she has close to no support for the scheme she cooked up which now dare not speak its name.

    I don't think that's quite it. If they don't think her plans are good enough they can act, it is not unreasonable for her to press ahead if they are not acting, even if her ideas are indeed bad.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    No Conservative leader is going to be humiliated by having a different Prime Minister when the Conservatives are in power.
    Neville Chamberlain says hello.
    I think the main takeaway from this idea is that the ERG realises it doesn't have the votes.
    Actually I think Mrs May has lost the pragmatists/One Nation wing of the party/the people who think on her worst day Mrs May is miles better than the likes of David Davis, Andrea Leadsom, Boris et al on their best days.
    Depends what "lost" means. I'll give her the rest of 2018. but fight another election? No way.
    I think May getting Brexit over the line then changing leader is a good strategy.
    It's been the strategy for a year. Getting over the line is proving problematic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    notme said:

    5 point con lead YouGov.

    Insane or wrong
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    So what? May as leader or not does not seem hugely important to me, getting something through parliament does and that's hard no matter what.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Don’t like the new thread, @kle4? :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    RobD said:

    Don’t like the new thread, @kle4? :D

    Working my way through!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    I don't understand where this idea of a NI only backstop has arisen. Is everyone (Journalists, UK and EU politicians alike) reading a completely different para 49 and 50 to me ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't understand where this idea of a NI only backstop has arisen. Is everyone (Journalists, UK and EU politicians alike) reading a completely different para 49 and 50 to me ?

    Yeah, I can’t see it either.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Also where the hell is a Montana state poll ?
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    The Turks have been sitting on this for a while, presumably:

    https://twitter.com/ZeinakhodrAljaz/status/1054317169088098304

    The Saudis should be selling that miracle hair growth compound they're using..
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    I should imagine it's the bill to extend the deadline for forming a Northern Ireland Executive (the same one that Stella Creasey and co want to tack abortion and equal marriage rights to).
This discussion has been closed.