No Conservative leader is going to be humiliated by having a different Prime Minister when the Conservatives are in power.
Neville Chamberlain says hello.
I think the main takeaway from this idea is that the ERG realises it doesn't have the votes.
Actually I think Mrs May has lost the pragmatists/One Nation wing of the party/the people who think on her worst day Mrs May is miles better than the likes of David Davis, Andrea Leadsom, Boris et al on their best days.
Depends what "lost" means. I'll give her the rest of 2018. but fight another election? No way.
It’s what happened in the Referendum isn’t it? “Life was better ‘once upon a time”, is a common position as Dr Ydoethur points out.
In 10 years time there’ll be a great yearning for lots of things we had, or could do, when we were part of the EU and that’ll be the moment for us Remainers.
Edit; don’t know why the block quote didn’t work. The comment about Romania came from IanB2.
Unfortunately there is hysteresis to contend with. If Brexit leads to a large exodus of automotive manufacturing then rejoining the EU won't bring it all back again. The damage will have been done.
This is why Remainers should have been 100% focused on retaining Single Market and Customs Union membership, rather than trying to reverse the vote.
There will only be wind powered and solar powered cars before long - neither of which we make.
No Conservative leader is going to be humiliated by having a different Prime Minister when the Conservatives are in power.
Neville Chamberlain says hello.
I think the main takeaway from this idea is that the ERG realises it doesn't have the votes.
Actually I think Mrs May has lost the pragmatists/One Nation wing of the party/the people who think on her worst day Mrs May is miles better than the likes of David Davis, Andrea Leadsom, Boris et al on their best days.
Depends what "lost" means. I'll give her the rest of 2018. but fight another election? No way.
There are rumours flying about for some days now that one prominent Leaver is prepared to ask for a one year extension to Article 50 whilst the Tory party/government/country sorts itself out over Brexit.
The feeling is Mrs May has wasted two years.
Most Leavers have a bit of sense and realise No Deal keeps the Tories out of power for a generation at least.
No Conservative leader is going to be humiliated by having a different Prime Minister when the Conservatives are in power.
Neville Chamberlain says hello.
I think the main takeaway from this idea is that the ERG realises it doesn't have the votes.
Actually I think Mrs May has lost the pragmatists/One Nation wing of the party/the people who think on her worst day Mrs May is miles better than the likes of David Davis, Andrea Leadsom, Boris et al on their best days.
Depends what "lost" means. I'll give her the rest of 2018. but fight another election? No way.
May's problem is that many of the MPs and even more of the membership think her handling of Brexit to be worse than the 2017 General Election campaign. They were intent that she should not fight another election - now they are despairing that her Brexit outcome shows she is not a figure to be tasked with anything significant.
This article is from 2009 but quite illuminating - 49% of East Germans then felt that life in the GDR was more good than bad, and 8% feel it was better than the current situation.
That doesn't mean that 57% would like to recreate it, obviously. My impression from various sources is that East Germans acknowledge that life has become materially better, but many feel second-class citizens, whereas before they felt they were an equal part of a difficult but shared life with a degree of social support that is largely absent now - the same kind of sentiment that you hear in the former coalfield areas in Britain.
Edit: found a Reddit overview from last year showing similar sentiments throughout Eastern Europe. The Romanian findings are particularly startling - nostalgia for Ceaucescu!
There's quite an interesting YouTube series on this, by the Curator of the DDR Museum. It talks about what they did have, more than what they didn't. However, the most illuminating one is this one: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5bpijVgZWhg# Foreshadowing the later national programme?
There is also an English-language film; My DDR Tee-Shirt (http://myddrtshirt.co.uk) made by an independent film-maker, Ian Hawkins. Very illuminating. He even found a British academic who had emigrated TO the DDR.
Isn’t also true that the vast majority of the Communist votes in Russian elections are those of older people?
Sometimes one is forced to wonder about the potential for a maximum voting age. Living in the past isn't healthy for a democracy.
I wonder often about raising the age you can vote at given the stupidity of the young, most of whom would not be able to tell me what democracy was.
Agree with the praise for @Alanbrooke - thank you sir and the most united this site has been in a while. The whole Brexit process, especially with the DUP in de facto Government, has pushed Northern Ireland into our consciousness like never before.
I had to visit Belfast several times in my previous job. I could never work out whether I felt in my home country or abroad. And wondered why it seemed so ignored by the mainland, in a way that Scotland never was.
Quiz question: what's the largest body of inland water in the UK?
Answer - after guessing most of the Cumbrian Lakes, Loch Lomond, Loch Ness etc. It's Lough Neagh in the centre of Northern Ireland. Anyone heard of it?
Yes.
It certainly was lively.
Then again, it didn't have these guys as permanent residents, which honour goes to (Upper) Lough Erne.
I've visited that island by accident with my parents. It was probably the funniest day of my entire life.
No Conservative leader is going to be humiliated by having a different Prime Minister when the Conservatives are in power.
Neville Chamberlain says hello.
I think the main takeaway from this idea is that the ERG realises it doesn't have the votes.
Actually I think Mrs May has lost the pragmatists/One Nation wing of the party/the people who think on her worst day Mrs May is miles better than the likes of David Davis, Andrea Leadsom, Boris et al on their best days.
Depends what "lost" means. I'll give her the rest of 2018. but fight another election? No way.
There are rumours flying about for some days now that one prominent Leaver is prepared to ask for a one year extension to Article 50 whilst the Tory party/government/country sorts itself out over Brexit.
The feeling is Mrs May has wasted two years.
Most Leavers have a bit of sense and realise No Deal keeps the Tories out of power for a generation at least.
I'd guess Michael Gove.
The number of adults in the room is small, and he seems to be one of them, so distinct possible.
No Conservative leader is going to be humiliated by having a different Prime Minister when the Conservatives are in power.
Neville Chamberlain says hello.
I think the main takeaway from this idea is that the ERG realises it doesn't have the votes.
Actually I think Mrs May has lost the pragmatists/One Nation wing of the party/the people who think on her worst day Mrs May is miles better than the likes of David Davis, Andrea Leadsom, Boris et al on their best days.
Depends what "lost" means. I'll give her the rest of 2018. but fight another election? No way.
There are rumours flying about for some days now that one prominent Leaver is prepared to ask for a one year extension to Article 50 whilst the Tory party/government/country sorts itself out over Brexit.
The feeling is Mrs May has wasted two years.
Most Leavers have a bit of sense and realise No Deal keeps the Tories out of power for a generation at least.
I'd guess Michael Gove.
The number of adults in the room is small, and he seems to be one of them, so distinct possible.
Leaver, sense, anonymous plotting, pragmatic solution, happy with BINO.
Agree with the praise for @Alanbrooke - thank you sir and the most united this site has been in a while. The whole Brexit process, especially with the DUP in de facto Government, has pushed Northern Ireland into our consciousness like never before.
I had to visit Belfast several times in my previous job. I could never work out whether I felt in my home country or abroad. And wondered why it seemed so ignored by the mainland, in a way that Scotland never was.
Quiz question: what's the largest body of inland water in the UK?
Answer - after guessing most of the Cumbrian Lakes, Loch Lomond, Loch Ness etc. It's Lough Neagh in the centre of Northern Ireland. Anyone heard of it?
Yes.
It certainly was lively.
Then again, it didn't have these guys as permanent residents, which honour goes to (Upper) Lough Erne.
I've visited that island by accident with my parents. It was probably the funniest day of my entire life.
One year extension = one year closer to Jezza in government as PM and solves precisely none of the issues holding up an agreement today. Unless Lars Karlsson is planning on stepping up production of his magico-technologyless-nonborder technology.
I've been talking politics with a load of people over the weekend thanks to the march and an usually busy social calendar. The perception is that May is struggling to deal with a problem she didn't create while being opposed by a set of troublemakers. I think this is why the Tories are currently escaping the blame for the poor delivery of Brexit. Put someone else in who is perceived to have stabbed her in the back and the excuse disappears.
I know that us political anoraks don't see it this way, but perception is more powerful than reality in politics.
Your comments reflect the people interviewed in Cambridge on Sophy Ridge yesterday. The ERG and others do not seem to grasp the British quality of fair play and most voters seem to accept TM has inherited a poisoned chalice and that some of the abuse hurled her way, including the totally unacceptable threats from the extreme ultra Brexiteers, drives more support for her.
If TM is removed and replaced with a Brexiteer I would not trust them one little bit and I would endorse a second referendum (not the silly and dishonest peoples's vote)
For me it is TM deal or a second referendum
A second referendum under certain conditions could be the only way of healing the Country.
This article is from 2009 but quite illuminating - 49% of East Germans then felt that life in the GDR was more good than bad, and 8% feel it was better than the current situation.
That doesn't mean that 57% would like to recreate it, obviously. My impression from various sources is that East Germans acknowledge that life has become materially better, but many feel second-class citizens, whereas before they felt they were an equal part of a difficult but shared life with a degree of social support that is largely absent now - the same kind of sentiment that you hear in the former coalfield areas in Britain.
Edit: found a Reddit overview from last year showing similar sentiments throughout Eastern Europe. The Romanian findings are particularly startling - nostalgia for Ceaucescu!
There's quite an interesting YouTube series on this, by the Curator of the DDR Museum. It talks about what they did have, more than what they didn't. However, the most illuminating one is this one: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5bpijVgZWhg# Foreshadowing the later national programme?
There is also an English-language film; My DDR Tee-Shirt (http://myddrtshirt.co.uk) made by an independent film-maker, Ian Hawkins. Very illuminating. He even found a British academic who had emigrated TO the DDR.
Isn’t also true that the vast majority of the Communist votes in Russian elections are those of older people?
Sometimes one is forced to wonder about the potential for a maximum voting age. Living in the past isn't healthy for a democracy.
I wonder often about raising the age you can vote at given the stupidity of the young, most of whom would not be able to tell me what democracy was.
That is pretty vile language. The MP's who have been quoted must be completely unhinged.
Yes it is, though in fairness the MP wasn't suggesting that they would be doing it themselves. It's obviously still a very silly thing to say, even off-the-record. To quote the full para:
A former minister said: “There is a growing consensus that she’s utterly hopeless. I’m not going to put a letter in but when I find myself in a private polling booth I just cannot see how I would vote for her. The moment is coming when the knife gets heated, stuck in her front and twisted. She’ll be dead soon.”
It's the most bizarre thing, making them look like petulant children not fit to be given a vote, let alone a firearm licence. It has zero chance of having any effect, fortunately.
Increasingly the Brexit deal we are heading towards looks like multiple choice Brexit: an option to extend the Withdrawal period at a cost, the backstop, the backstop to the backstop.
The Future Relationship document could also be multiple choice, it could work up the outline of a Chequers based deal, whilst noting Canada style FTA could end up being the basis for the full negotiation post March.
I wonder whether TMay is gearing this towards a March resignation that will give her (Leaver) successor 21 months (or more if some of the facilities are used) to conclude the easiest trade deal in history and deliver on the frictionless border.
Could it be that the real reason the ERG are so upset is that TMay is lining up a deal that will force them to Stand and Deliver on their own bluster, else call upon the backstops they so despise.
May I suggest that the ERG is getting increasingly frantic because May is getting close to doing a deal rather than because she isn’t... after all, the ERG are the schismatic lookin to bring the house down so that their wealthy friends in the US can pick up their pieces, they will not rest until the walls have been brought down
the ERG are nutters. If the modern right was to hold power in the future, the manic blazer brigade need to be cut out and cast aside, either from the tories or from a new party of the right/centre.
May I suggest that the ERG is getting increasingly frantic because May is getting close to doing a deal rather than because she isn’t... after all, the ERG are the schismatic lookin to bring the house down so that their wealthy friends in the US can pick up their pieces, they will not rest until the walls have been brought down
And they know if they call a vote of No Confidence May would win.
At a guess if one was held in the next fortnight about 190 Tory MPs would back May, just under 100 Tory MPs would oppose her and about 30 would abstain. May would then be safe for a year and cannot be challenged again until after Brexit.
Remember only 120 Tory MPs out of over 300 backed Leave in the EU referendum
On topic, I wonder if a better analogy for Ireland after reunification isn't Israel+the Palestinian Territories? No comparison will ever be perfect, of course, but you have religious fanaticism, an economic basket case vs a prosperous modern economy and intractable border issues caused by settlers moving into territory which one side has claimed has always been theirs. In Germany, you only had one of those three.
Most evidence from the modern world shows that ethnic and religious conflicts inspire many people to fanaticism, and are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to resolve. On the bright side, if a Greater Ireland in a single state can work, maybe a one-state solution can work for Israel too?
Although, again, it's very difficult to read across from one conflict to the other.
I don’t think either side in Ireland supports genocide
Yeah it is pretty hard to compare either side in Ireland (in recent times) to Israeli brutality. The modern day Irish conflict on either side really doesn't compare to Palestinian suffering. Which probably indicates there is a long way to go.
Good that Eire was willing to amend its constitution. Unlike hamas
Good that we didn't try to destroy them for our own gain. Unlike Israel.
Good that we didn’t work with our friends to “push them into the sea” in living memory. Unlike Palestine
Any people would defend their land if attacked, using that logic the British would deserve it just as much as we would resist millions of Muslims moving here and taking our land and kicking us out of our homes.
I’m glad we agree the Israelis had the right to defend themselves against invasion.
the ERG are nutters. If the modern right was to hold power in the future, the manic blazer brigade need to be cut out and cast aside, either from the tories or from a new party of the right/centre.
Unfortunately Brexit has energised them.
Most of them remember when their views on leaving the EU were held by a small minority, they know with a bit of time and hard work their other unpopular views could hold a majority.
They aren't going to go away unless Brexit is a complete and utter disaster.
Agree with the praise for @Alanbrooke - thank you sir and the most united this site has been in a while. The whole Brexit process, especially with the DUP in de facto Government, has pushed Northern Ireland into our consciousness like never before.
I had to visit Belfast several times in my previous job. I could never work out whether I felt in my home country or abroad. And wondered why it seemed so ignored by the mainland, in a way that Scotland never was.
Quiz question: what's the largest body of inland water in the UK?
Answer - after guessing most of the Cumbrian Lakes, Loch Lomond, Loch Ness etc. It's Lough Neagh in the centre of Northern Ireland. Anyone heard of it?
Bill Clinton hadn’t if urban myth is to be believed
Agree with the praise for @Alanbrooke - thank you sir and the most united this site has been in a while. The whole Brexit process, especially with the DUP in de facto Government, has pushed Northern Ireland into our consciousness like never before.
I had to visit Belfast several times in my previous job. I could never work out whether I felt in my home country or abroad. And wondered why it seemed so ignored by the mainland, in a way that Scotland never was.
Quiz question: what's the largest body of inland water in the UK?
Answer - after guessing most of the Cumbrian Lakes, Loch Lomond, Loch Ness etc. It's Lough Neagh in the centre of Northern Ireland. Anyone heard of it?
I think it's only about 10ft deep, on average. It may have the largest surface area, but it's not even top 5 for volume (um, actually, it's #2).
EDIT: Appears to be 30ft deep on average. Looking at some other lakes, there's a comical maths fail on Wast Water's wiki entry. A lake with a surface area of 1 square mile has a volume of 26 cubic miles. That makes it - on average - 137,000 feet deep.
And Ullswater's volume is measured in acre.feet. Which is 'interesting'.
Have there been any opinion polls on how the people of England would vote in an English Independence (from the UK) referendum?
That would be very hard on Wales, where there is every indication of strong support for remaining in the union, as well as having an economy that might struggle outwith. I'd prefer English and Welsh independence rather than just English.
About 15% in England support English independence last time that was included as an option in a poll.
If English independence is not included as an option over 50% of English voters back an English Parliament
Have there been any opinion polls on how the people of England would vote in an English Independence (from the UK) referendum?
That would be very hard on Wales, where there is every indication of strong support for remaining in the union, as well as having an economy that might struggle outwith. I'd prefer English and Welsh independence rather than just English.
About 15% in England support English independence last time that was included as an option in a poll.
If English independence is not included as an option over 50% of English voters back an English Parliament
the ERG are nutters. If the modern right was to hold power in the future, the manic blazer brigade need to be cut out and cast aside, either from the tories or from a new party of the right/centre.
Unfortunately Brexit has energised them.
Most of them remember when their views on leaving the EU were held by a small minority, they know with a bit of time and hard work their other unpopular views could hold a majority.
They aren't going to go away unless Brexit is a complete and utter disaster.
Their ceiling is about 40% of voters, a majority of the electorate will not back an ERG No Deal Brexit approach.
If Brexit ends up failing and becomes unsustainable it will be due to the ERG' s refusal to compromise
Have there been any opinion polls on how the people of England would vote in an English Independence (from the UK) referendum?
That would be very hard on Wales, where there is every indication of strong support for remaining in the union, as well as having an economy that might struggle outwith. I'd prefer English and Welsh independence rather than just English.
About 15% in England support English independence last time that was included as an option in a poll.
If English independence is not included as an option over 50% of English voters back an English Parliament
An illuminating set of articles thank you. One area the article did not discuss was the impact on Scotland and in particular Glasgow from any change in N Ireland status. The Orange order is still strong here and there will be a sense of betrayal felt. The Tory party would suffer badly in particular.
Ruth Davidson fought the last election on unionism not Brexit. Europe is really not a big deal up here except the fish. If the Tory Party elects BJ or Davies as their leader there is a strong possibility that the Scottish Tory Party will resign the whip and become independent. This would put an end to a hard Brexit and reshape politics in the UK for ever. The Scottish Tory Party with DUP might be able to reach 30 to 40 MPs in the next election with areas such as Govan switching from the SNP.
That thing when the opinions and feelings of the losers suddenly become important. (see also '38% of Proud Scots voted for Brexit, when are the Nats going to take them into account?!')
An illuminating set of articles thank you. One area the article did not discuss was the impact on Scotland and in particular Glasgow from any change in N Ireland status. The Orange order is still strong here and there will be a sense of betrayal felt. The Tory party would suffer badly in particular.
Ruth Davidson fought the last election on unionism not Brexit. Europe is really not a big deal up here except the fish. If the Tory Party elects BJ or Davies as their leader there is a strong possibility that the Scottish Tory Party will resign the whip and become independent. This would put an end to a hard Brexit and reshape politics in the UK for ever. The Scottish Tory Party with DUP might be able to reach 30 to 40 MPs in the next election with areas such as Govan switching from the SNP.
There will be no change in NI unless a majority of NI voters vote for Irish Unity. If there is a hard border in Ireland all the polling shows that becomes more likely while a majority of Northern Irish voters both Protestant and Catholic want Northern Ireland to stay part of the single market and customs union.
I agree there is no UK majority amongst MPs for a No Deal hard Brexit
I've asked Djanogly on twitter why he's putting his name to the amendment.
Interested to hear the answer - perhaps he's banking a favour from the loons?
Probably because he represents a rural constituency where shooting is popular.
LOL.
Not with a .50 cal!!
Not much left of a pheasant if it gets hit with that.
Enraged bulls, maybe?
.50 is used as a materiel denial round. ie fucking up vehicles from a distance by shattering the engine block. It's a very serious bit of tackle but I've no idea why it urgently needs specific legislation right now. Are county line gangs blazing away at each other and the OB with Barretts?
I saw someone get hit by a Dushka (which has less muzzle energy than the .50BMG they are trying to ban) in Basra and it just about ripped him in half.
But the ERG are effectively telling their members it is a three line whip to show the government and Mrs May that they can stall her government.
Yeah, I think the logic is "If we can get our members to support something this fucking stupid, we'll be able to get their support on Brexit votes for sure"
Doesn't an Article 50 extension (rather than - say - an unconditional one year transition period) mean that we'd have to have EU Parliament elections next year?
Is that a good idea?
Or is a one year unconditional 'transition' also a bad idea as it opens even more problems (Officially no longer EU members, but have to follow all the rules - if we do change our minds, REMAIN isn't an option, only REJOIN, etc)?
But the ERG are effectively telling their members it is a three line whip to show the government and Mrs May that they can stall her government.
Yeah, I think the logic is "If we can get our members to support something this fucking stupid, we'll be able to get their support on Brexit votes for sure"
Acting like children is just pathetic. They need to be confined to their playgroup
The country is crying out for grown up politicians
Doesn't an Article 50 extension (rather than - say - an unconditional one year transition period) mean that we'd have to have EU Parliament elections next year?
Is that a good idea?
Or is a one year unconditional 'transition' also a bad idea as it opens even more problems (Officially no longer EU members, but have to follow all the rules - if we do change our minds, REMAIN isn't an option, only REJOIN, etc)?
The Metro reported this morning if we had EUref2 we would stay in the EU an extra 6 months to allow for the campaign etc
Can some of our Kremlinologists tell whether this is some sort of elaborate House of Cards style stratagem to bring down the government or is it just principled opportunism?
Doesn't an Article 50 extension (rather than - say - an unconditional one year transition period) mean that we'd have to have EU Parliament elections next year?
Is that a good idea?
Or is a one year unconditional 'transition' also a bad idea as it opens even more problems (Officially no longer EU members, but have to follow all the rules - if we do change our minds, REMAIN isn't an option, only REJOIN, etc)?
The Metro reported this morning if we had EUref2 we would stay in the EU an extra 6 months to allow for the campaign etc
That would be sensible but when has sense overtaken our politicians
But the ERG are effectively telling their members it is a three line whip to show the government and Mrs May that they can stall her government.
Yeah, I think the logic is "If we can get our members to support something this fucking stupid, we'll be able to get their support on Brexit votes for sure"
Acting like children is just pathetic. They need to be confined to their playgroup
The country is crying out for grown up politicians
Is it, though? Maybe we're getting the politicians we deserve.
Doesn't an Article 50 extension (rather than - say - an unconditional one year transition period) mean that we'd have to have EU Parliament elections next year?
Is that a good idea?
Or is a one year unconditional 'transition' also a bad idea as it opens even more problems (Officially no longer EU members, but have to follow all the rules - if we do change our minds, REMAIN isn't an option, only REJOIN, etc)?
The Metro reported this morning if we had EUref2 we would stay in the EU an extra 6 months to allow for the campaign etc
That would be sensible but when has sense overtaken our politicians
There would have to be a vote for EUref2 though in Parliament first
An illuminating set of articles thank you. One area the article did not discuss was the impact on Scotland and in particular Glasgow from any change in N Ireland status. The Orange order is still strong here and there will be a sense of betrayal felt. The Tory party would suffer badly in particular.
Ruth Davidson fought the last election on unionism not Brexit. Europe is really not a big deal up here except the fish. If the Tory Party elects BJ or Davies as their leader there is a strong possibility that the Scottish Tory Party will resign the whip and become independent. This would put an end to a hard Brexit and reshape politics in the UK for ever. The Scottish Tory Party with DUP might be able to reach 30 to 40 MPs in the next election with areas such as Govan switching from the SNP.
Though the old sectarian divide still exists in Glasgow there aren't really significant ghettos for the two tribes. Glasgow SW which is closest to the old Govan constituency was a straight (& close) fight between SLab & SNP in 2017 with the SCons a distant third. I'd expect future shipbuilding contracts to be more important for future elections there than any NI shenanigans.
On the plus side if Ruthy & co got into bed with the DUP we'd see a lot less of her being fawned over by media luvvies.
Can some of our Kremlinologists tell whether this is some sort of elaborate House of Cards style stratagem to bring down the government or is it just principled opportunism?
It’s bringing abortion into party political arena. Something it’s been largely free from in the uk. When the us Supreme Court abused their authority with Roe vs Wade for a matter that was for the State not the federal government it poisoned politics for the subsequent 45 years. Here we will see a decision that is devolved to the people of Northern Ireland taken out of their hands by people who know better.
Even if the 48 letters now go in my sense is Theresa May will be safe on the subsequent confidence vote.
No-one will want to be associated with that sort of language.
Nobody will be, the VONC is secret ballot, I believe.
It alienates the middle of the road backbenchers.
Juvenile, petty, infantile, demeaning, vicious, inflammatory and insulting are various ways to describe it. However, in the rough and tumble of politics and the turmoil of Brexit I suspect it will be forgotten in a few days, as I understand it is unattributable. Should it be attributed to an individual, then that individual will be the one to carry the burden of guilt and opprobrium of right thinking people.
Can some of our Kremlinologists tell whether this is some sort of elaborate House of Cards style stratagem to bring down the government or is it just principled opportunism?
Anyone defending Corbyn should just be shown this, and then told to go away and think about it. EDIT: I see SO looked at this from the other end of the telescope. https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1054341530419429376
Even if the 48 letters now go in my sense is Theresa May will be safe on the subsequent confidence vote.
No-one will want to be associated with that sort of language.
Nobody will be, the VONC is secret ballot, I believe.
It alienates the middle of the road backbenchers.
Juvenile, petty, infantile, demeaning, vicious, inflammatory and insulting are various ways to describe it. However, in the rough and tumble of politics and the turmoil of Brexit I suspect it will be forgotten in a few days, as I understand it is unattributable. Should it be attributed to an individual, then that individual will be the one to carry the burden of guilt and opprobrium of right thinking people.
Condemned by Ian Duncan Smith and Owen Paterson in interview in Brussels, also Andrew Bridgen.
Probably secured TM in post
TM statement in HOC at 5.00pm
TM up to 38% approval in todays poll. Corbyn down at 24% - adds to the narrative that TM is gaining with the public
It seems quite easy for Labour to support it: “we agree with the Prime Minister that we can never support anything that could lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom” (McD might need to add ‘except for a democratic vote’ given his recent comments, I guess). The question would be why May doesn’t support it given her repeated insistence that she will never accept the backstop.
They have obviously decided to wait for all that post-Brexit money that will come flooding into the UK after we throw off the shackles of our EU masters.....
Comments
Sir Keir Starmer to be the Ramsay MacDonald of the 21st century?
Narrows it down indeed.
Surreal doesn't begin to capture it.
If TM is removed and replaced with a Brexiteer I would not trust them one little bit and I would endorse a second referendum (not the silly and dishonest peoples's vote)
For me it is TM deal or a second referendum
A second referendum under certain conditions could be the only way of healing the Country.
https://twitter.com/dcakraemer/status/1054325949393711104
https://twitter.com/dcakraemer/status/1054326245226397697
https://twitter.com/dcakraemer/status/1054326530531299328
But if this is the hill they want to die on....
A former minister said: “There is a growing consensus that she’s utterly hopeless. I’m not going to put a letter in but when I find myself in a private polling booth I just cannot see how I would vote for her. The moment is coming when the knife gets heated, stuck in her front and twisted. She’ll be dead soon.”
Increasingly the Brexit deal we are heading towards looks like multiple choice Brexit: an option to extend the Withdrawal period at a cost, the backstop, the backstop to the backstop.
The Future Relationship document could also be multiple choice, it could work up the outline of a Chequers based deal, whilst noting Canada style FTA could end up being the basis for the full negotiation post March.
I wonder whether TMay is gearing this towards a March resignation that will give her (Leaver) successor 21 months (or more if some of the facilities are used) to conclude the easiest trade deal in history and deliver on the frictionless border.
Could it be that the real reason the ERG are so upset is that TMay is lining up a deal that will force them to Stand and Deliver on their own bluster, else call upon the backstops they so despise.
Anyway, I must be off.
https://twitter.com/Durchiga/status/1054106909245128705
At a guess if one was held in the next fortnight about 190 Tory MPs would back May, just under 100 Tory MPs would oppose her and about 30 would abstain. May would then be safe for a year and cannot be challenged again until after Brexit.
Remember only 120 Tory MPs out of over 300 backed Leave in the EU referendum
Most of them remember when their views on leaving the EU were held by a small minority, they know with a bit of time and hard work their other unpopular views could hold a majority.
They aren't going to go away unless Brexit is a complete and utter disaster.
EDIT: Appears to be 30ft deep on average. Looking at some other lakes, there's a comical maths fail on Wast Water's wiki entry. A lake with a surface area of 1 square mile has a volume of 26 cubic miles. That makes it - on average - 137,000 feet deep.
And Ullswater's volume is measured in acre.feet. Which is 'interesting'.
If English independence is not included as an option over 50% of English voters back an English Parliament
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_independence
Not with a .50 cal!!
Not much left of a pheasant if it gets hit with that.
Edit: quick google - https://independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/cows-officially-the-most-deadly-large-animals-in-britain-a6727266.html
If Brexit ends up failing and becomes unsustainable it will be due to the ERG' s refusal to compromise
Ruth Davidson fought the last election on unionism not Brexit. Europe is really not a big deal up here except the fish. If the Tory Party elects BJ or Davies as their leader there is a strong possibility that the Scottish Tory Party will resign the whip and become independent. This would put an end to a hard Brexit and reshape politics in the UK for ever. The Scottish Tory Party with DUP might be able to reach 30 to 40 MPs in the next election with areas such as Govan switching from the SNP.
(see also '38% of Proud Scots voted for Brexit, when are the Nats going to take them into account?!')
https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1054302877689229312
I agree there is no UK majority amongst MPs for a No Deal hard Brexit
I saw someone get hit by a Dushka (which has less muzzle energy than the .50BMG they are trying to ban) in Basra and it just about ripped him in half.
Is that a good idea?
Or is a one year unconditional 'transition' also a bad idea as it opens even more problems (Officially no longer EU members, but have to follow all the rules - if we do change our minds, REMAIN isn't an option, only REJOIN, etc)?
The country is crying out for grown up politicians
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/21/labour-mps-plot-ambush-northern-ireland-abortion-law
No-one will want to be associated with that sort of language.
On the plus side if Ruthy & co got into bed with the DUP we'd see a lot less of her being fawned over by media luvvies.
Which most MPs will do anyway.
https://twitter.com/ZeinakhodrAljaz/status/1054317169088098304
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1054341530419429376
May: 38 (+2)
Corbyn: 24 (-1)
Not Sure: 35 (-2)
Thats close to her greatest lead (+15) since the GE.
Cue the Tories dumping her.....
Probably secured TM in post
TM statement in HOC at 5.00pm
TM up to 38% approval in todays poll. Corbyn down at 24% - adds to the narrative that TM is gaining with the public
Why else would they do this?