On topic, I wonder if a better analogy for Ireland after reunification isn't Israel+the Palestinian Territories? No comparison will ever be perfect, of course, but you have religious fanaticism, an economic basket case vs a prosperous modern economy and intractable border issues caused by settlers moving into territory which one side has claimed has always been theirs. In Germany, you only had one of those three.
Most evidence from the modern world shows that ethnic and religious conflicts inspire many people to fanaticism, and are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to resolve. On the bright side, if a Greater Ireland in a single state can work, maybe a one-state solution can work for Israel too?
Although, again, it's very difficult to read across from one conflict to the other.
I don’t think either side in Ireland supports genocide
Yeah it is pretty hard to compare either side in Ireland (in recent times) to Israeli brutality. The modern day Irish conflict on either side really doesn't compare to Palestinian suffering. Which probably indicates there is a long way to go.
Good that Eire was willing to amend its constitution. Unlike hamas
On topic, I wonder if a better analogy for Ireland after reunification isn't Israel+the Palestinian Territories? No comparison will ever be perfect, of course, but you have religious fanaticism, an economic basket case vs a prosperous modern economy and intractable border issues caused by settlers moving into territory which one side has claimed has always been theirs. In Germany, you only had one of those three.
Most evidence from the modern world shows that ethnic and religious conflicts inspire many people to fanaticism, and are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to resolve. On the bright side, if a Greater Ireland in a single state can work, maybe a one-state solution can work for Israel too?
Although, again, it's very difficult to read across from one conflict to the other.
I don’t think either side in Ireland supports genocide
Yeah it is pretty hard to compare either side in Ireland (in recent times) to Israeli brutality. The modern day Irish conflict on either side really doesn't compare to Palestinian suffering. Which probably indicates there is a long way to go.
Good point. Neither side in Ireland needs constant reminders that any aggression will be met by equal (perhaps unequal) and opposite aggression.
Brexit 95% done says TM. Sounds like we're ahead of schedule!
Err...there seems to have been no progress on the political declaration. So why is May saying we are close to a deal?
I note that both sides have said publicly that this is nearly done. That's a strange thing to say if you're nowhere, since you'll look a bit daft in less than 6 months time.
It’s what happened in the Referendum isn’t it? “Life was better ‘once upon a time”, is a common position as Dr Ydoethur points out.
In 10 years time there’ll be a great yearning for lots of things we had, or could do, when we were part of the EU and that’ll be the moment for us Remainers.
Edit; don’t know why the block quote didn’t work. The comment about Romania came from IanB2.
Unfortunately there is hysteresis to contend with. If Brexit leads to a large exodus of automotive manufacturing then rejoining the EU won't bring it all back again. The damage will have been done.
This is why Remainers should have been 100% focused on retaining Single Market and Customs Union membership, rather than trying to reverse the vote.
On topic, I wonder if a better analogy for Ireland after reunification isn't Israel+the Palestinian Territories? No comparison will ever be perfect, of course, but you have religious fanaticism, an economic basket case vs a prosperous modern economy and intractable border issues caused by settlers moving into territory which one side has claimed has always been theirs. In Germany, you only had one of those three.
Most evidence from the modern world shows that ethnic and religious conflicts inspire many people to fanaticism, and are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to resolve. On the bright side, if a Greater Ireland in a single state can work, maybe a one-state solution can work for Israel too?
Although, again, it's very difficult to read across from one conflict to the other.
I don’t think either side in Ireland supports genocide
Yeah it is pretty hard to compare either side in Ireland (in recent times) to Israeli brutality. The modern day Irish conflict on either side really doesn't compare to Palestinian suffering. Which probably indicates there is a long way to go.
Good that Eire was willing to amend its constitution. Unlike hamas
Good that we didn't try to destroy them for our own gain. Unlike Israel.
Brexit 95% done says TM. Sounds like we're ahead of schedule!
Err...there seems to have been no progress on the political declaration. So why is May saying we are close to a deal?
Since the EU have given up all hope of rational conversation with May on trade, they have focussed just on getting the WA signed, which gives the EU all the things it wants but gives the UK next to nothing.
So, instead of refocussing on the political declaration, May just goes along with what the EU want, ready to declare a ‘deal’ when the most important part has not been agreed.
She really is an idiot.
Provided the backstop for NI is agreed the EU will negotiate a FTA for GB, with no backstop there will be no FTA at all. May will likely try and agree the backstop but only with a condition as to when it can end e.g. some promise if a technical solution is found to the Irish border
On topic, I wonder if a better analogy for Ireland after reunification isn't Israel+the Palestinian Territories? No comparison will ever be perfect, of course, but you have religious fanaticism, an economic basket case vs a prosperous modern economy and intractable border issues caused by settlers moving into territory which one side has claimed has always been theirs. In Germany, you only had one of those three.
Most evidence from the modern world shows that ethnic and religious conflicts inspire many people to fanaticism, and are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to resolve. On the bright side, if a Greater Ireland in a single state can work, maybe a one-state solution can work for Israel too?
Although, again, it's very difficult to read across from one conflict to the other.
I don’t think either side in Ireland supports genocide
Yeah it is pretty hard to compare either side in Ireland (in recent times) to Israeli brutality. The modern day Irish conflict on either side really doesn't compare to Palestinian suffering. Which probably indicates there is a long way to go.
Good point. Neither side in Ireland needs constant reminders that any aggression will be met by equal (perhaps unequal) and opposite aggression.
Yes thankfully lessons were learned that just pounding people into the ground doesn't turn them peaceful. Although I'm not sure learning the lesson is a problem, just a good excuse.
An interesting lead and some very pertinent observations from YS downthread. Given its size and all the issues, a significant change in governance within the republic is inevitable were unification likely to be on the table.
Heart versus head issues are always immensely dangerous, as we shouldn't need telling by now.
Indeed. Interesting that Alan argues on the 'mind' side of this one but the 'heart' side of Brexit.
On topic, I wonder if a better analogy for Ireland after reunification isn't Israel+the Palestinian Territories? No comparison will ever be perfect, of course, but you have religious fanaticism, an economic basket case vs a prosperous modern economy and intractable border issues caused by settlers moving into territory which one side has claimed has always been theirs. In Germany, you only had one of those three.
Most evidence from the modern world shows that ethnic and religious conflicts inspire many people to fanaticism, and are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to resolve. On the bright side, if a Greater Ireland in a single state can work, maybe a one-state solution can work for Israel too?
Although, again, it's very difficult to read across from one conflict to the other.
I don’t think either side in Ireland supports genocide
Yeah it is pretty hard to compare either side in Ireland (in recent times) to Israeli brutality. The modern day Irish conflict on either side really doesn't compare to Palestinian suffering. Which probably indicates there is a long way to go.
Good point. Neither side in Ireland needs constant reminders that any aggression will be met by equal (perhaps unequal) and opposite aggression.
Yes thankfully lessons were learned that just pounding people into the ground doesn't turn them peaceful. Although I'm not sure learning the lesson is a problem, just a good excuse.
Doesn't really matter - they are pounded into the ground.
Brexit 95% done says TM. Sounds like we're ahead of schedule!
Hmm, I'm reminded of the old joke that the first 90% takes 50% of the time and the other 50% of the time is taken by the last 90%.
Or the 100ft fall off a cliff. It's only the last foot that kills you.
More seriously, it's a good general rule that when everyone is trying to sound upbeat you should worry and when everyone is frowning and sucking their teeth you can be more confident a deal will be done. So we should be worrying.
On topic, I wonder if a better analogy for Ireland after reunification isn't Israel+the Palestinian Territories? No comparison will ever be perfect, of course, but you have religious fanaticism, an economic basket case vs a prosperous modern economy and intractable border issues caused by settlers moving into territory which one side has claimed has always been theirs. In Germany, you only had one of those three.
Most evidence from the modern world shows that ethnic and religious conflicts inspire many people to fanaticism, and are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to resolve. On the bright side, if a Greater Ireland in a single state can work, maybe a one-state solution can work for Israel too?
Although, again, it's very difficult to read across from one conflict to the other.
I don’t think either side in Ireland supports genocide
Yeah it is pretty hard to compare either side in Ireland (in recent times) to Israeli brutality. The modern day Irish conflict on either side really doesn't compare to Palestinian suffering. Which probably indicates there is a long way to go.
Good that Eire was willing to amend its constitution. Unlike hamas
Good that we didn't try to destroy them for our own gain. Unlike Israel.
Good that we didn’t work with our friends to “push them into the sea” in living memory. Unlike Palestine
On topic, I wonder if a better analogy for Ireland after reunification isn't Israel+the Palestinian Territories? No comparison will ever be perfect, of course, but you have religious fanaticism, an economic basket case vs a prosperous modern economy and intractable border issues caused by settlers moving into territory which one side has claimed has always been theirs. In Germany, you only had one of those three.
Most evidence from the modern world shows that ethnic and religious conflicts inspire many people to fanaticism, and are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to resolve. On the bright side, if a Greater Ireland in a single state can work, maybe a one-state solution can work for Israel too?
Although, again, it's very difficult to read across from one conflict to the other.
I don’t think either side in Ireland supports genocide
Yeah it is pretty hard to compare either side in Ireland (in recent times) to Israeli brutality. The modern day Irish conflict on either side really doesn't compare to Palestinian suffering. Which probably indicates there is a long way to go.
Good point. Neither side in Ireland needs constant reminders that any aggression will be met by equal (perhaps unequal) and opposite aggression.
Yes thankfully lessons were learned that just pounding people into the ground doesn't turn them peaceful. Although I'm not sure learning the lesson is a problem, just a good excuse.
Doesn't really matter - they are pounded into the ground.
Hey you support whatever you like, don't let me judge you...
Brexit 95% done says TM. Sounds like we're ahead of schedule!
Hmm, I'm reminded of the old joke that the first 90% takes 50% of the time and the other 50% of the time is taken by the last 90%.
Or the 100ft fall off a cliff. It's only the last foot that kills you.
More seriously, it's a good general rule that when everyone is trying to sound upbeat you should worry and when everyone is frowning and sucking their teeth you can be more confident a deal will be done. So we should be worrying.
She. Cannot. Be. That. Stupid.
Surely!!!????
Having come up with Chequers after extensive/no/vague/zero consultations with the EU surely she would not now pre-announce something which has not been agreed??!!
On topic, I wonder if a better analogy for Ireland after reunification isn't Israel+the Palestinian Territories? No comparison will ever be perfect, of course, but you have religious fanaticism, an economic basket case vs a prosperous modern economy and intractable border issues caused by settlers moving into territory which one side has claimed has always been theirs. In Germany, you only had one of those three.
Most evidence from the modern world shows that ethnic and religious conflicts inspire many people to fanaticism, and are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to resolve. On the bright side, if a Greater Ireland in a single state can work, maybe a one-state solution can work for Israel too?
Although, again, it's very difficult to read across from one conflict to the other.
I don’t think either side in Ireland supports genocide
Yeah it is pretty hard to compare either side in Ireland (in recent times) to Israeli brutality. The modern day Irish conflict on either side really doesn't compare to Palestinian suffering. Which probably indicates there is a long way to go.
Good that Eire was willing to amend its constitution. Unlike hamas
Good that we didn't try to destroy them for our own gain. Unlike Israel.
Good that we didn’t work with our friends to “push them into the sea” in living memory. Unlike Palestine
Any people would defend their land if attacked, using that logic the British would deserve it just as much as we would resist millions of Muslims moving here and taking our land and kicking us out of our homes.
An interesting lead and some very pertinent observations from YS downthread. Given its size and all the issues, a significant change in governance within the republic is inevitable were unification likely to be on the table.
Heart versus head issues are always immensely dangerous, as we shouldn't need telling by now.
Indeed. Interesting that Alan argues on the 'mind' side of this one but the 'heart' side of Brexit.
Good articles though - thanks.
my Brexit argument is both heart and mind. Ive always thought there will be a short term economic hit with Brexit but that we will pull it back over time. My bigger concern is that we are getting to a point where our politics is getting too far removed from the people it is meant to represent. A jolt to the system was needed to correct it.
The true tragedy of Brexit is that we are creating ever more divisions in our society. Searching for an analogy, I can't help but think of Hartley Shawcross's terrible "we are the masters now" line.
You were previously very dismissive when I pointed out that there are just as many Brits of the Erasmus generation who feel a European identity as from the countries that you said were a "better fit" for the EU. You reap what you sow.
I had a think, perhaps a solution for Northern Ireland is for May to say...
"Any new rules or regulations insisted in the Irish sea will also have to apply to the Northern Ireland, southern Ireland border. Likewise any new rules or regulations insisted on the Irish border will apply in the Irish sea."
I suppose the argument against this is exceptionalism, but I don't think there is a border quite like N Ireland anywhere else in the world.
Brexit 95% done says TM. Sounds like we're ahead of schedule!
Hmm, I'm reminded of the old joke that the first 90% takes 50% of the time and the other 50% of the time is taken by the last 90%.
Or the 100ft fall off a cliff. It's only the last foot that kills you.
More seriously, it's a good general rule that when everyone is trying to sound upbeat you should worry and when everyone is frowning and sucking their teeth you can be more confident a deal will be done. So we should be worrying.
She. Cannot. Be. That. Stupid.
Surely!!!????
Having come up with Chequers after extensive/no/vague/zero consultations with the EU surely she would not now pre-announce something which has not been agreed??!!
The last 5% is called the Irish Border and it is an impossible conundrum. So she will not reach the 100.
I had a think, perhaps a solution for Northern Ireland is for May to say...
"Any new rules or regulations insisted in the Irish sea will also have to apply to the Northern Ireland, southern Ireland border. Likewise any new rules or regulations insisted on the Irish border will apply in the Irish sea."
I suppose the argument against this is exceptionalism, but I don't think there is a border quite like N Ireland anywhere else in the world.
Another solution is an all United Kingdom and Ireland customs union. None of Ireland's rights under it's existing EU membership would be infringed upon. Though I guess the est of the EU27 might not be happy to give Ireland such an advantage !
I still cannot shake the feeling that we have only seen the Brexit Irish border issue through some kind of looking glass. That the Irish line came about with some degree of tacit blessing from London. That the UK saw the Irish border commitments as a way to achieve a cakeist solution, with a high level of trade access and alignment necessitated by the land border, without having to commit to formal CU or SM - with Chequers the culmination of that strategy.
In other words, that the border problem is not something that was simply done to us by others, but something we willingly played along with. Put it this way: the word 'de-dramatise' has seldom dropped from the lips of a UK politician.
When the time comes. I will be looking with interest at this generation's political memoirs.
As a matter of basic maths, that's got to be right. In practice, the last week when one would be called by anyone's plan is the first week in December. Count back seven weeks from then (it took seven weeks from Theresa May calling a snap election to election date) and you're already out of time.
Brexit 95% done says TM. Sounds like we're ahead of schedule!
Hmm, I'm reminded of the old joke that the first 90% takes 50% of the time and the other 50% of the time is taken by the last 90%.
Or the 100ft fall off a cliff. It's only the last foot that kills you.
More seriously, it's a good general rule that when everyone is trying to sound upbeat you should worry and when everyone is frowning and sucking their teeth you can be more confident a deal will be done. So we should be worrying.
She. Cannot. Be. That. Stupid.
Surely!!!????
Having come up with Chequers after extensive/no/vague/zero consultations with the EU surely she would not now pre-announce something which has not been agreed??!!
The last 5% is called the Irish Border and it is an impossible conundrum. So she will not reach the 100.
To re-up a previous metaphor - a fire escape that takes you 95% out of a building isn’t going to save your life.
I had a think, perhaps a solution for Northern Ireland is for May to say...
"Any new rules or regulations insisted in the Irish sea will also have to apply to the Northern Ireland, southern Ireland border. Likewise any new rules or regulations insisted on the Irish border will apply in the Irish sea."
I suppose the argument against this is exceptionalism, but I don't think there is a border quite like N Ireland anywhere else in the world.
Another solution is an all United Kingdom and Ireland customs union. None of Ireland's rights under it's existing EU membership would be infringed upon. Though I guess the est of the EU27 might not be happy to give Ireland such an advantage !
Perhaps a rule that goods can not be sent through Ireland from other EU member states for the main purpose of ending up in the UK in order to avoid customs duty.
As a matter of basic maths, that's got to be right. In practice, the last week when one would be called by anyone's plan is the first week in December. Count back seven weeks from then (it took seven weeks from Theresa May calling a snap election to election date) and you're already out of time.
The 1918 general election was held on 14 December so its possible for it to be held nearer to Christmas and they announced the results on 28 December.
However in reality the chance of any general election being held this year now is close to zero. Who knows the Tories may depose May in that time - but they won't hold an election during the Xmas party season.
Have there been any opinion polls on how the people of England would vote in an English Independence (from the UK) referendum?
That would be very hard on Wales, where there is every indication of strong support for remaining in the union, as well as having an economy that might struggle outwith. I'd prefer English and Welsh independence rather than just English.
I had a think, perhaps a solution for Northern Ireland is for May to say...
"Any new rules or regulations insisted in the Irish sea will also have to apply to the Northern Ireland, southern Ireland border. Likewise any new rules or regulations insisted on the Irish border will apply in the Irish sea."
I suppose the argument against this is exceptionalism, but I don't think there is a border quite like N Ireland anywhere else in the world.
Another solution is an all United Kingdom and Ireland customs union. None of Ireland's rights under it's existing EU membership would be infringed upon. Though I guess the est of the EU27 might not be happy to give Ireland such an advantage !
how does that work? there can be no common external tariff
I had a think, perhaps a solution for Northern Ireland is for May to say...
"Any new rules or regulations insisted in the Irish sea will also have to apply to the Northern Ireland, southern Ireland border. Likewise any new rules or regulations insisted on the Irish border will apply in the Irish sea."
I suppose the argument against this is exceptionalism, but I don't think there is a border quite like N Ireland anywhere else in the world.
Another solution is an all United Kingdom and Ireland customs union. None of Ireland's rights under it's existing EU membership would be infringed upon. Though I guess the est of the EU27 might not be happy to give Ireland such an advantage !
Perhaps a rule that goods can not be sent through Ireland from other EU member states for the main purpose of ending up in the UK in order to avoid customs duty.
If we get Hard Brexit, I think this is a quite plausible end state as it becomes clear that Ireland refuse to implement a hard border and jeapordise the EUCUs own adherance to WTO MFN non discrimination. It's yet another Looking Glass element to the whole thing.
"Sometimes one is forced to wonder about the potential for a maximum voting age. Living in the past isn't healthy for a democracy."
As the brain doesn't mature until the mid-twenties, this can work both ways. Restrict voting to the over-25s and ban those with diagnosed dementia.
There goes the Corbyn vote.
On the other hand there is the benefit on the basis of experiencing a full life from school to college, to work, to paying rent and a mortgage, to paying taxes for decades, to bringing up a family etc. Perhaps life experience is as useful as an informing tool on voting as sixth form college and uni?
I wonder if Leo is trying to get rid of the "West Brit" moniker his party has been called for decades. If so, all he has to do is try and get rid of the "Green Tory" tag.
Maybe he and his foreign minister are looking at Brexit through the prism of the people he is answerable to- the voters in the 26 counties.
I had a think, perhaps a solution for Northern Ireland is for May to say...
"Any new rules or regulations insisted in the Irish sea will also have to apply to the Northern Ireland, southern Ireland border. Likewise any new rules or regulations insisted on the Irish border will apply in the Irish sea."
I suppose the argument against this is exceptionalism, but I don't think there is a border quite like N Ireland anywhere else in the world.
Another solution is an all United Kingdom and Ireland customs union. None of Ireland's rights under it's existing EU membership would be infringed upon. Though I guess the est of the EU27 might not be happy to give Ireland such an advantage !
If as they claim they want to stop terrorism and the conflict on the border - the argument Veradkhar used last week - then why wouldn't they consider this? Or are they just using that supposed threat for political convenience.
Brexit 95% done says TM. Sounds like we're ahead of schedule!
Hmm, I'm reminded of the old joke that the first 90% takes 50% of the time and the other 50% of the time is taken by the last 90%.
Or the 100ft fall off a cliff. It's only the last foot that kills you.
More seriously, it's a good general rule that when everyone is trying to sound upbeat you should worry and when everyone is frowning and sucking their teeth you can be more confident a deal will be done. So we should be worrying.
She. Cannot. Be. That. Stupid.
Surely!!!????
Having come up with Chequers after extensive/no/vague/zero consultations with the EU surely she would not now pre-announce something which has not been agreed??!!
The last 5% is called the Irish Border and it is an impossible conundrum. So she will not reach the 100.
To re-up a previous metaphor - a fire escape that takes you 95% out of a building isn’t going to save your life.
It could on the basis that you'd be a bit scorched and both legs broken from jumping the last 30 feet.
I had a think, perhaps a solution for Northern Ireland is for May to say...
"Any new rules or regulations insisted in the Irish sea will also have to apply to the Northern Ireland, southern Ireland border. Likewise any new rules or regulations insisted on the Irish border will apply in the Irish sea."
I suppose the argument against this is exceptionalism, but I don't think there is a border quite like N Ireland anywhere else in the world.
Another solution is an all United Kingdom and Ireland customs union. None of Ireland's rights under it's existing EU membership would be infringed upon. Though I guess the est of the EU27 might not be happy to give Ireland such an advantage !
If as they claim they want to stop terrorism and the conflict on the border - the argument Veradkhar used last week - then why wouldn't they consider this? Or are they just using that supposed threat for political convenience.
Is that an alternative form of Varadkar, or have you just misspelt it?
Can I thank Alanbrooke for an excellent series of articles which are a kind of first on PB. We have never done a 3 parter before.
When I first read them I felt it important that they run sequentially dominating the site for a day or more. Good stuff.
thanks Mike. I would encourage other posters to give it a go and give a bit of a break to the PB editorial team whose unfailing efforts need more recognition.
Indeed. 3 excellent articles and I'm sure to many of us a little known subject.
For your next one how about 'Ludlow. Can it really sustain 4 Conservative clubs?'
Im rinsing my hair blue as we speak :-)
I'd always pictured it blue. This place is full of Northern Irish. A dissapointingly sober lot. Not a 'Paddy's Bar' in sight.
It sounds like decoupling Northern Ireland from a 217 year old union with GB is going to be easier than decoupling the UK from a mere 45 year old union with the EU. Ditto Scotland.
As a matter of basic maths, that's got to be right. In practice, the last week when one would be called by anyone's plan is the first week in December. Count back seven weeks from then (it took seven weeks from Theresa May calling a snap election to election date) and you're already out of time.
Even if it's after Xmas no one is going to want a GE campaign over the holidays.
Have there been any opinion polls on how the people of England would vote in an English Independence (from the UK) referendum?
That would be very hard on Wales, where there is every indication of strong support for remaining in the union, as well as having an economy that might struggle outwith. I'd prefer English and Welsh independence rather than just English.
I'm never sure when I refer to England whether I mean the England part of "England & Wales" or England as in the "Kingdom of England" which included Wales in its latter centuries.
Have there been any opinion polls on how the people of England would vote in an English Independence (from the UK) referendum?
That would be very hard on Wales, where there is every indication of strong support for remaining in the union, as well as having an economy that might struggle outwith. I'd prefer English and Welsh independence rather than just English.
I'm never sure when I refer to England whether I mean the England part of "England & Wales" or England as in the "Kingdom of England" which included Wales in its latter centuries.
In this hotchpotch of kingdoms, countries, regions & unions no one is, that's the problem.
I had a think, perhaps a solution for Northern Ireland is for May to say...
"Any new rules or regulations insisted in the Irish sea will also have to apply to the Northern Ireland, southern Ireland border. Likewise any new rules or regulations insisted on the Irish border will apply in the Irish sea."
I suppose the argument against this is exceptionalism, but I don't think there is a border quite like N Ireland anywhere else in the world.
Another solution is an all United Kingdom and Ireland customs union. None of Ireland's rights under it's existing EU membership would be infringed upon. Though I guess the est of the EU27 might not be happy to give Ireland such an advantage !
If as they claim they want to stop terrorism and the conflict on the border - the argument Veradkhar used last week - then why wouldn't they consider this? Or are they just using that supposed threat for political convenience.
Is that an alternative form of Varadkar, or have you just misspelt it?
As a matter of basic maths, that's got to be right. In practice, the last week when one would be called by anyone's plan is the first week in December. Count back seven weeks from then (it took seven weeks from Theresa May calling a snap election to election date) and you're already out of time.
The 1918 general election was held on 14 December so its possible for it to be held nearer to Christmas and they announced the results on 28 December.
However in reality the chance of any general election being held this year now is close to zero. Who knows the Tories may depose May in that time - but they won't hold an election during the Xmas party season.
McDonnell's first pre-Christmas Budget would be like Scrooge, cubed.....
I had a think, perhaps a solution for Northern Ireland is for May to say...
"Any new rules or regulations insisted in the Irish sea will also have to apply to the Northern Ireland, southern Ireland border. Likewise any new rules or regulations insisted on the Irish border will apply in the Irish sea."
I suppose the argument against this is exceptionalism, but I don't think there is a border quite like N Ireland anywhere else in the world.
Another solution is an all United Kingdom and Ireland customs union. None of Ireland's rights under it's existing EU membership would be infringed upon. Though I guess the est of the EU27 might not be happy to give Ireland such an advantage !
If as they claim they want to stop terrorism and the conflict on the border - the argument Veradkhar used last week - then why wouldn't they consider this? Or are they just using that supposed threat for political convenience.
Is that an alternative form of Varadkar, or have you just misspelt it?
I had a think, perhaps a solution for Northern Ireland is for May to say...
"Any new rules or regulations insisted in the Irish sea will also have to apply to the Northern Ireland, southern Ireland border. Likewise any new rules or regulations insisted on the Irish border will apply in the Irish sea."
I suppose the argument against this is exceptionalism, but I don't think there is a border quite like N Ireland anywhere else in the world.
Another solution is an all United Kingdom and Ireland customs union. None of Ireland's rights under it's existing EU membership would be infringed upon. Though I guess the est of the EU27 might not be happy to give Ireland such an advantage !
If as they claim they want to stop terrorism and the conflict on the border - the argument Veradkhar used last week - then why wouldn't they consider this? Or are they just using that supposed threat for political convenience.
Is that an alternative form of Varadkar, or have you just misspelt it?
Fascinating articles. It will be an interesting period of history if greater Ireland unites. The Scots would surely follow. I cannot see the Welsh though.
I think "TREXIT" now followed by NO DEAL is a huge risk to the Tory party. The majority of the public want a deal and will blame the Tory MPs for "preventing" this - by ousting May. May will argue that she would have got a "good deal" if she had not been toppled and the public may well believe her.
The only logical reason and timing for toppling her, in my view, is if and when she gets a deal that she cannot get through parliament. But to topple her at this stage could result in the worst of all worlds for the Tories.
I had a think, perhaps a solution for Northern Ireland is for May to say...
"Any new rules or regulations insisted in the Irish sea will also have to apply to the Northern Ireland, southern Ireland border. Likewise any new rules or regulations insisted on the Irish border will apply in the Irish sea."
I suppose the argument against this is exceptionalism, but I don't think there is a border quite like N Ireland anywhere else in the world.
Another solution is an all United Kingdom and Ireland customs union. None of Ireland's rights under it's existing EU membership would be infringed upon. Though I guess the est of the EU27 might not be happy to give Ireland such an advantage !
If as they claim they want to stop terrorism and the conflict on the border - the argument Veradkhar used last week - then why wouldn't they consider this? Or are they just using that supposed threat for political convenience.
Is that an alternative form of Varadkar, or have you just misspelt it?
Agree with the praise for @Alanbrooke - thank you sir and the most united this site has been in a while. The whole Brexit process, especially with the DUP in de facto Government, has pushed Northern Ireland into our consciousness like never before.
I had to visit Belfast several times in my previous job. I could never work out whether I felt in my home country or abroad. And wondered why it seemed so ignored by the mainland, in a way that Scotland never was.
Quiz question: what's the largest body of inland water in the UK?
Answer - after guessing most of the Cumbrian Lakes, Loch Lomond, Loch Ness etc. It's Lough Neagh in the centre of Northern Ireland. Anyone heard of it?
Have there been any opinion polls on how the people of England would vote in an English Independence (from the UK) referendum?
That would be very hard on Wales, where there is every indication of strong support for remaining in the union, as well as having an economy that might struggle outwith. I'd prefer English and Welsh independence rather than just English.
I'm never sure when I refer to England whether I mean the England part of "England & Wales" or England as in the "Kingdom of England" which included Wales in its latter centuries.
I think the glue between England an Wales is stronger than say Northern Ireland or Scotland, because there is
a) No sea between England and Wales (No, the Bristol Channel doesn't count) a ii) No natural other country (Republic of Ireland) for Wales to fold into.
b i) The main pop centres of Wales are very close geographically to England, probably far more regular Bristol/Cardiff traffic than say Carlisle/Dumfries. b ii) A decent amount of physical seperation between Edinburgh/Glasgow and any major population centre in England, unlike Wales.
It sounds like decoupling Northern Ireland from a 217 year old union with GB is going to be easier than decoupling the UK from a mere 45 year old union with the EU. Ditto Scotland.
Ha. NI ain't going nowhere. The only people in GB suggesting decoupling (apart from a few Irish people who live here) are Brexiters who can't face up to the fact that the end to Ulster-based terrorism was predicated on our membership of the EU. To get ourselves out of this mess we need a remodelled Good Friday Agreement that takes account of the new Brexit reality, and we need a continuing relationship with Ireland that allows that to work successfully.
Brexit is barely worth doing anyway, but it's not worth doing at all if we go back to the bad old days.
Have there been any opinion polls on how the people of England would vote in an English Independence (from the UK) referendum?
That would be very hard on Wales, where there is every indication of strong support for remaining in the union, as well as having an economy that might struggle outwith. I'd prefer English and Welsh independence rather than just English.
I'm never sure when I refer to England whether I mean the England part of "England & Wales" or England as in the "Kingdom of England" which included Wales in its latter centuries.
I think the glue between England an Wales is stronger than say Northern Ireland or Scotland, because there is
a) No sea between England and Wales (No, the Bristol Channel doesn't count) a ii) No natural other country (Republic of Ireland) for Wales to fold into.
b i) The main pop centres of Wales are very close geographically to England, probably far more regular Bristol/Cardiff traffic than say Carlisle/Dumfries. b ii) A decent amount of physical seperation between Edinburgh/Glasgow and any major population centre in England, unlike Wales.
Unlike Scotland Wales never had separate legal or (afaik) education systems. The Welsh language seems to be the great differentiator & appears to be in a healthy enough state, though it's use isn't spread evenly throughout Wales.
Agree with the praise for @Alanbrooke - thank you sir and the most united this site has been in a while. The whole Brexit process, especially with the DUP in de facto Government, has pushed Northern Ireland into our consciousness like never before.
I had to visit Belfast several times in my previous job. I could never work out whether I felt in my home country or abroad. And wondered why it seemed so ignored by the mainland, in a way that Scotland never was.
Quiz question: what's the largest body of inland water in the UK?
Answer - after guessing most of the Cumbrian Lakes, Loch Lomond, Loch Ness etc. It's Lough Neagh in the centre of Northern Ireland. Anyone heard of it?
Yes.
It certainly was lively.
Then again, it didn't have these guys as permanent residents, which honour goes to (Upper) Lough Erne.
If you want another comparison, the component parts of Poland still seem to vote along geographical lines set by its partition in the 18th century. Though, to be more optimistic, the key word in that sentence might be geographical. Italy remains an exceptionally diverse country because its geography practically dictates that: the Appennines carve the country up, as does its length. Sure, choices have cemented existing divisions but those choices don’t have to be made. Northern Ireland is not particularly geographically distinct from the rest of the island. Get Belfast right and the rest should follow.
I have disagreed with very little in @Alanbrooke’s excellent series but I fear his own antipathy to the current Irish government stance on Brexit has led him astray: hardcore Leavers are far more upset with it than ordinary unionists. Indeed, such polling as there has been suggests that messing up Brexit is worse for the union.
My reaction to Varadkar is not based on Brexit, but rather an innate concern as to why anyone would want to stir up the whole Northern Ireland swamp when it was starting to settle down.
While Brexit is no way the fault of the irish government, to me the correct approach was to set a working party to one side from both governments and sort the border issue away from the headlines, Varadkar has made an issue of something he would have been best advised to leave alone.
Like how the British, Spanish & Gibraltarians have sorted out that other "show stopper" Gibraltar?
Out of curiosity, does anyone know how does Brexit affect the UK sovereign bases on Cyprus?
They already aren't in the EU proper by dint of some legal smoke and mirrors. I doubt they will survive in the medium term anyway as they are blisteringly expensive. Almost of all the SIGINT/ELINT capability has been moved to NAS Sigonella in Italy in what looks suspiciously like preparations for a "rationalisation" of UK forces in the Med.
And why exactly would May want to stay as Party Leader? Leading a Party that was presumably ripping up her approach to the EU.....
Much easier to just have a coronation of DD for a couple of years to save everyone the bother.
I think what that tells us is that May is contesting any attempt to get rid of her. I think the Tories would be mad to do so anyway - if the people I speak to are anything to go by she's still an asset to them. But if she fights it that will lose them support for sure.
I had a think, perhaps a solution for Northern Ireland is for May to say...
"Any new rules or regulations insisted in the Irish sea will also have to apply to the Northern Ireland, southern Ireland border. Likewise any new rules or regulations insisted on the Irish border will apply in the Irish sea."
I suppose the argument against this is exceptionalism, but I don't think there is a border quite like N Ireland anywhere else in the world.
Another solution is an all United Kingdom and Ireland customs union. None of Ireland's rights under it's existing EU membership would be infringed upon. Though I guess the est of the EU27 might not be happy to give Ireland such an advantage !
If as they claim they want to stop terrorism and the conflict on the border - the argument Veradkhar used last week - then why wouldn't they consider this? Or are they just using that supposed threat for political convenience.
Is that an alternative form of Varadkar, or have you just misspelt it?
No Conservative leader is going to be humiliated by having a different Prime Minister when the Conservatives are in power.
Neville Chamberlain says hello.
I think the main takeaway from this idea is that the ERG realises it doesn't have the votes.
Actually I think Mrs May has lost the pragmatists/One Nation wing of the party/the people who think on her worst day Mrs May is miles better than the likes of David Davis, Andrea Leadsom, Boris et al on their best days.
Have there been any opinion polls on how the people of England would vote in an English Independence (from the UK) referendum?
That would be very hard on Wales, where there is every indication of strong support for remaining in the union, as well as having an economy that might struggle outwith. I'd prefer English and Welsh independence rather than just English.
I'm never sure when I refer to England whether I mean the England part of "England & Wales" or England as in the "Kingdom of England" which included Wales in its latter centuries.
I think the glue between England an Wales is stronger than say Northern Ireland or Scotland, because there is
a) No sea between England and Wales (No, the Bristol Channel doesn't count) a ii) No natural other country (Republic of Ireland) for Wales to fold into.
b i) The main pop centres of Wales are very close geographically to England, probably far more regular Bristol/Cardiff traffic than say Carlisle/Dumfries. b ii) A decent amount of physical seperation between Edinburgh/Glasgow and any major population centre in England, unlike Wales.
The other is the physical separation between South and North Wales, which are more closely connected to their neighbouring English counties than to each other. Indeed Google maps does not suggest an all Welsh Cardiff-Llandudno journey either by car or train.
But there's one thing that may save her. Those keenest to axe her will likely have penned letters already. And the rumour is only 2 more are needed for a contest, at which point she may be doomed by the feeling she's going anyway and the PCP would rather axe her a little earlier than be lumbered with her for at least a year.
That puts a lot of pressure on those who might pen those letters. And they're likely to be more ambivalent, haven't not yet written them.
The race was very good, interesting things happened to the competitive midfield battle, and there was a late sting in the tale with a pair of post-race disqualifications.
No Conservative leader is going to be humiliated by having a different Prime Minister when the Conservatives are in power.
Neville Chamberlain says hello.
I think the main takeaway from this idea is that the ERG realises it doesn't have the votes.
Actually I think Mrs May has lost the pragmatists/One Nation wing of the party/the people who think on her worst day Mrs May is miles better than the likes of David Davis, Andrea Leadsom, Boris et al on their best days.
Depends what "lost" means. I'll give her the rest of 2018. but fight another election? No way.
No Conservative leader is going to be humiliated by having a different Prime Minister when the Conservatives are in power.
Neville Chamberlain says hello.
I think the main takeaway from this idea is that the ERG realises it doesn't have the votes.
Actually I think Mrs May has lost the pragmatists/One Nation wing of the party/the people who think on her worst day Mrs May is miles better than the likes of David Davis, Andrea Leadsom, Boris et al on their best days.
Depends what "lost" means. I'll give her the rest of 2018. but fight another election? No way.
I think May getting Brexit over the line then changing leader is a good strategy.
Have there been any opinion polls on how the people of England would vote in an English Independence (from the UK) referendum?
That would be very hard on Wales, where there is every indication of strong support for remaining in the union, as well as having an economy that might struggle outwith. I'd prefer English and Welsh independence rather than just English.
I'm never sure when I refer to England whether I mean the England part of "England & Wales" or England as in the "Kingdom of England" which included Wales in its latter centuries.
I think the glue between England an Wales is stronger than say Northern Ireland or Scotland, because there is
a) No sea between England and Wales (No, the Bristol Channel doesn't count) a ii) No natural other country (Republic of Ireland) for Wales to fold into.
b i) The main pop centres of Wales are very close geographically to England, probably far more regular Bristol/Cardiff traffic than say Carlisle/Dumfries. b ii) A decent amount of physical seperation between Edinburgh/Glasgow and any major population centre in England, unlike Wales.
The other is the physical separation between South and North Wales, which are more closely connected to their neighbouring English counties than to each other. Indeed Google maps does not suggest an all Welsh Cardiff-Llandudno journey either by car or train.
I think the railway is still disconnected, but the A470 is a fine road (if you are not in a hurry).
Her pride in being a "bloody difficult woman" is the problem. She thinks obstinacy is a virtue even when she has close to no support for the scheme she cooked up which now dare not speak its name.
No Conservative leader is going to be humiliated by having a different Prime Minister when the Conservatives are in power.
Neville Chamberlain says hello.
I think the main takeaway from this idea is that the ERG realises it doesn't have the votes.
Actually I think Mrs May has lost the pragmatists/One Nation wing of the party/the people who think on her worst day Mrs May is miles better than the likes of David Davis, Andrea Leadsom, Boris et al on their best days.
Depends what "lost" means. I'll give her the rest of 2018. but fight another election? No way.
There are rumours flying about for some days now that one prominent Leaver is prepared to ask for a one year extension to Article 50 whilst the Tory party/government/country sorts itself out over Brexit.
The feeling is Mrs May has wasted two years.
Most Leavers have a bit of sense and realise No Deal keeps the Tories out of power for a generation at least.
I've been talking politics with a load of people over the weekend thanks to the march and an usually busy social calendar. The perception is that May is struggling to deal with a problem she didn't create while being opposed by a set of troublemakers. I think this is why the Tories are currently escaping the blame for the poor delivery of Brexit. Put someone else in who is perceived to have stabbed her in the back and the excuse disappears.
I know that us political anoraks don't see it this way, but perception is more powerful than reality in politics.
Comments
"Sometimes one is forced to wonder about the potential for a maximum voting age. Living in the past isn't healthy for a democracy."
As the brain doesn't mature until the mid-twenties, this can work both ways. Restrict voting to the over-25s and ban those with diagnosed dementia.
There goes the Corbyn vote.
This is why Remainers should have been 100% focused on retaining Single Market and Customs Union membership, rather than trying to reverse the vote.
Good articles though - thanks.
Surely!!!????
Having come up with Chequers after extensive/no/vague/zero consultations with the EU surely she would not now pre-announce something which has not been agreed??!!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/22/general-election-christmas-highly-unlikely/
"Any new rules or regulations insisted in the Irish sea will also have to apply to the Northern Ireland, southern Ireland border. Likewise any new rules or regulations insisted on the Irish border will apply in the Irish sea."
I suppose the argument against this is exceptionalism, but I don't think there is a border quite like N Ireland anywhere else in the world.
Thanks very much.
In other words, that the border problem is not something that was simply done to us by others, but something we willingly played along with. Put it this way: the word 'de-dramatise' has seldom dropped from the lips of a UK politician.
When the time comes. I will be looking with interest at this generation's political memoirs.
However in reality the chance of any general election being held this year now is close to zero. Who knows the Tories may depose May in that time - but they won't hold an election during the Xmas party season.
I'd prefer English and Welsh independence rather than just English.
I wonder if Leo is trying to get rid of the "West Brit" moniker his party has been called for decades. If so, all he has to do is try and get rid of the "Green Tory" tag.
Maybe he and his foreign minister are looking at Brexit through the prism of the people he is answerable to- the voters in the 26 counties.
So that basically rules out Jan as well, right?
Probably we'll see neither final 5% materialise this year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbvX3elSaaY
The only logical reason and timing for toppling her, in my view, is if and when she gets a deal that she cannot get through parliament. But to topple her at this stage could result in the worst of all worlds for the Tories.
I had to visit Belfast several times in my previous job. I could never work out whether I felt in my home country or abroad. And wondered why it seemed so ignored by the mainland, in a way that Scotland never was.
Quiz question: what's the largest body of inland water in the UK?
Answer - after guessing most of the Cumbrian Lakes, Loch Lomond, Loch Ness etc. It's Lough Neagh in the centre of Northern Ireland. Anyone heard of it?
a) No sea between England and Wales (No, the Bristol Channel doesn't count)
a ii) No natural other country (Republic of Ireland) for Wales to fold into.
b i) The main pop centres of Wales are very close geographically to England, probably far more regular Bristol/Cardiff traffic than say Carlisle/Dumfries.
b ii) A decent amount of physical seperation between Edinburgh/Glasgow and any major population centre in England, unlike Wales.
Brexit is barely worth doing anyway, but it's not worth doing at all if we go back to the bad old days.
Much easier to just have a coronation of DD for a couple of years to save everyone the bother.
It certainly was lively.
Then again, it didn't have these guys as permanent residents, which honour goes to (Upper) Lough Erne.
I remember hearing that Garibaldi did not unite Italy, he divided Africa.
But there's one thing that may save her. Those keenest to axe her will likely have penned letters already. And the rumour is only 2 more are needed for a contest, at which point she may be doomed by the feeling she's going anyway and the PCP would rather axe her a little earlier than be lumbered with her for at least a year.
That puts a lot of pressure on those who might pen those letters. And they're likely to be more ambivalent, haven't not yet written them.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/10/us-post-race-analysis.html
The race was very good, interesting things happened to the competitive midfield battle, and there was a late sting in the tale with a pair of post-race disqualifications.
With Corbyn leading Labour this is unlikely. Attlee he isn't.
The feeling is Mrs May has wasted two years.
Most Leavers have a bit of sense and realise No Deal keeps the Tories out of power for a generation at least.
I know that us political anoraks don't see it this way, but perception is more powerful than reality in politics.