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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Will May reach and deal and

This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts:
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Or does running out own country well matter more?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-45903825/baby-joins-the-all-50-states-club
There are undoubtedly some Leave supporters who like Mr Dancer articulate their thinking well, though I still struggle to see the logic in isolating our country from a large trading block on our doorstep when the benefits are so unclear and the counterarguments to Brexit so logical and clear. What we are saying is that 27 other countries that are happy to pool their sovereignty for considerable benefit are wrong and we (or rather 52% of "us") are right. If there is such a thing as the wisdom of the crowd, we are clearly not very wise.
The one thing I will take some pleasure from is the opprobrium that history will quickly pore on Johnson Fox and Davis for their conceit, self aggrandisement and lies.
Is that a card trick or a sexual peccadillo ?
Seems a long way out compared to other recent polls.
However if no final trade deal agreed by the end of 2021 Boris may fancy his chances of toppling May and chucking the DUP and leading the Tories into a 2022 general election on a platform of CETA for GB
of course "pool" means lose in this case
I think you would also be hard pushed to say the EU was being run for the benefit of other than at tops 2 countries - look what happened to southern Europe because of that.
Why also does Merkel get to invite in a couple of million new guests on her own and then when it all goes spectacularly wrong decide that all EU nations have to take their fare share?
There are also sizeable groups of the population in certain counties that really do want to leave or at least stop the ever increasing federalisation
You will also have to admit we were never asked about joining anything other than a trading block.
So, really in your eyes only some "lies" matter?
I was (obviously) referring to our current political predicament. We are a laughing stock, so to use your ridiculous hackneyed phrase "get real" yourself. Brexit is an unpatriotic endeavour that has embarrassed the country in the eyes of the world. Only an idiot would think otherwise.
Cameron was of course the best PM, bar Maggie, of the last 50 years, and I don't expect to see another PM as good as him in my remaining lifetime.
In many respects John Major is now the best PM post Thatcher, he left a growing economy, low inflation, a reasonably balanced budget and relatively low inflation, managed his Eurosceptic backbenchers without the UK crashing out of the EU unlike Cameron and won the Gulf War only with a UN backed coalition
Wise.
And he failed miserably on all three. He left the country an international laughing stock with its alliances in tatters and the union under more strain than at anytime in the past 300 years. And Tory MPs openly refer to their government as a shitshow and confess that they would not vote for it!
If that is success I hate to think what failure would look like!
It's also interesting to note why it happened: failure to grasp the nettle whilst there was still time to do so. The whole history of the last forty years might well have been different if Wilson hadn't bottled it when Barbara Castle came up with her In Place of Strife proposals.
https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1053297961508261888
https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/huddersfield-grooming-gang-operation-tendersea-15290153
https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/why-couldnt-report-huddersfield-grooming-15294820
https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/news-opinion/grooming-gangs-islamophobia-edl-robinson-15294888
As far as they think of the UK they think of the royal family and a few British celebrities, actors and pop stars and sports stars and London and that is about it. Brexit is a vague curiosity outside Europe but not much more than that
The "EU" and its representatives report to the 27/28 sovereign countries that are members. Barnier has a duty to hold the line. It is us that have had the tantrum. They are not being exceptionally unreasonable, just negotiating form a position of strength. If the position were reversed and it was, say, Wales wanting to accede from the UK I can't imagine we would say "oh of course, you little darlings, we will agree to everything you say after 52% of your population has just told us to fuck off!"
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1053297964008030208
Political leaders are supposed to lead, neither Cameron nor May had any idea of what leadership means. The Tories have not had a leader worthy of the name since Thatcher, all her successors have merely followed the line of least resistance in the Party.
“We all need to find an answer on Ireland and Northern Ireland. But if you don’t have an agreement then you don’t have an answer either” — Angela Merkel
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/saudis-weigh-using-scapegoat
I was too busy earning a living, raising children, getting wed, divorced, wed, widowed and so forth to really give a shit. Maastricht was a minor wtf? moment, but it wasn't until the shenanigans around the constitution and the subsequent Lisbon treaty that I got my xenophobe on, as Alastair might put it.
However, his "Too many Tweets..." line is one of the best political soundbites of our time.
Eurosceptics? As Bob Hoskins would say, "I've shit 'em"
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Germany, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 27% (-1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 20% (+3)
AfD-EFDD: 16%
SPD-S&D: 14% (-3)
LINKE-LEFT: 10%
FDP-ALDE: 8%
Field work: 16/10/18 – 18/10/18
Sample size: 1,117"
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects
https://www.ft.com/content/a1f88c3c-d154-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5
They've fallen a long way since Brandt.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1053209939504709634?s=21
It’s a huge waste but there we are.
A good move by Facebook.
Will be interesting to see how Clegg gets on with Zuckerberg.