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  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin :)
    It won't if No Deal, it will lose
    If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
    Just supposing that happens, would the large number of pro-EU Labour MPs, plus the SNP, LibDems, Green etc not force him to 'be reasonable'.
    I'm told Corbyn may be anti-EU, but that it's not his highest priority, he won't want his (probably minority) administration bogged down like May's has been.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412
    Scott_P said:

    As I keep pointing out - there doesn't exist a deal that will have the support of the HoC.

    There isn't a Brexit that exists that has the support of a majority anywhere.

    The lesson that should have been drawn from the referendum is there is no majority for Brexit. There was a very slim majority against the status quo
    Which would have been the correct answer if the referendum had been where we were versus Brexit but it wasn't.
    It was Cameron's us on the sidelines deal versus Brexit and Brexit won...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    edited October 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that the Finance Director of Patisserie Valerie has been arrested. I think that means he's now in custardy.

    He's going to get pastried, no question. How does a quoted company have "secret" overdrafts?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Fenster said:

    Leavers have to be very careful here however. Topple May, and Brexit is I think, lost.

    I am sure of it. Indeed if we have learned anything today TM has fired a huge warning shot to ERG over her coded message that a no deal will be handed to the House to decide

    After today the chance of remain must have risen

    It would be ironic if ERG lose there dream by pushing too hard
    It'll be NO DEAL.

    The ERG hold all the cards. They don't have the power to bring forward a deal that commands the backing of the Commons (or one the EU will support) but they do have the power to bounce legislation round the House through delaying tactics, meaning Article 50 runs out of time.

    If the shit really starts to hit the fan it'll be interesting to see if Varadkar blinks. Ireland will disproportionately suffer from No Deal more than any other country.
    Ireland aren't setting the EUs negotiating terms.

    Ireland will be hurt by a no deal Brexit but their response isn't going to be blame the EU but to blame the UK.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ERG might as well get the letters in tonight and try to get rid of her.
    The problem remains that the only one of them desperate for the job is Boris Johnson.
    I thought things were moving in favour of David Davis?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that the Finance Director of Patisserie Valerie has been arrested. I think that means he's now in custardy.

    He's going to get pastried, no question. How does a quote company have "secret" overdrafts?
    When will he be eligible for profiterole?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that the Finance Director of Patisserie Valerie has been arrested. I think that means he's now in custardy.

    Aargh, if things go badly he might do porridge.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Jonathan, Numa made a good king and Julian a good emperor. So there may be something in that.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited October 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin :)
    It won't if No Deal, it will lose
    If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
    If Corbyn becomes PM he will only be able to have a majority with SNP, LD and Labour Remainer MPs

    How on Earth do you know that?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    JonathanD said:

    Fenster said:

    Leavers have to be very careful here however. Topple May, and Brexit is I think, lost.

    I am sure of it. Indeed if we have learned anything today TM has fired a huge warning shot to ERG over her coded message that a no deal will be handed to the House to decide

    After today the chance of remain must have risen

    It would be ironic if ERG lose there dream by pushing too hard
    It'll be NO DEAL.

    The ERG hold all the cards. They don't have the power to bring forward a deal that commands the backing of the Commons (or one the EU will support) but they do have the power to bounce legislation round the House through delaying tactics, meaning Article 50 runs out of time.

    If the shit really starts to hit the fan it'll be interesting to see if Varadkar blinks. Ireland will disproportionately suffer from No Deal more than any other country.
    Ireland aren't setting the EUs negotiating terms.

    Ireland will be hurt by a no deal Brexit but their response isn't going to be blame the EU but to blame the UK.
    Yep. But that won't make their plight any better.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that the Finance Director of Patisserie Valerie has been arrested. I think that means he's now in custardy.

    He's going to get pastried, no question. How does a quote company have "secret" overdrafts?
    As an ex-Finance Director, I have absolutely no idea. In our business we had something called "controls". I mean, he could walk into (say) Metro Bank and open a bank account in his firm's name. But unless it was a trading account, with (you know) revenues flowing through, then I can't see how they could possibly have offered an overdraft. And if revenues were flowing through, then how on earth was it a secret?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ERG might as well get the letters in tonight and try to get rid of her.
    The problem remains that the only one of them desperate for the job is Boris Johnson.
    I thought things were moving in favour of David Davis?
    Oh come on. We may be on our way to hell in a handcart but there are limits.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Fenster said:

    Leavers have to be very careful here however. Topple May, and Brexit is I think, lost.

    I am sure of it. Indeed if we have learned anything today TM has fired a huge warning shot to ERG over her coded message that a no deal will be handed to the House to decide

    After today the chance of remain must have risen

    It would be ironic if ERG lose there dream by pushing too hard
    It'll be NO DEAL.

    The ERG hold all the cards. They don't have the power to bring forward a deal that commands the backing of the Commons (or one the EU will support) but they do have the power to bounce legislation round the House through delaying tactics, meaning Article 50 runs out of time.

    If the shit really starts to hit the fan it'll be interesting to see if Varadkar blinks. Ireland will disproportionately suffer from No Deal more than any other country.
    The ERG's ace can be trumped with the thought that if the deal is rejected the government would ask for an A50 extension rather than face the chaos and political damage of crashing out unprepared.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin :)
    It won't if No Deal, it will lose
    If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
    If Corbyn becomes PM he will only be able to have a majority with SNP, LD and Labour Remainer MPs

    How on Earth do you know that?
    Polls and articles on PB (see above for an example) indicate it is a very likely outcome.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin :)
    It won't if No Deal, it will lose
    If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
    If Corbyn becomes PM he will only be able to have a majority with SNP, LD and Labour Remainer MPs support, they will all demand the UK stays in the Single Market and the Customs Union if he wants to stay PM and get any legislation through
    There'd be a new election beforehand surely? With teh Tories getting trounced and Corbyn making hay.

    @Logicalsong If Corbyn ever gets to power he will compromise with NOBODY
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ERG might as well get the letters in tonight and try to get rid of her.
    The problem remains that the only one of them desperate for the job is Boris Johnson.
    I thought things were moving in favour of David Davis?
    According to @Charles, he doesn't want the job.

    If Dominic Raab wanted it, he could probably get it. But here's the thing: he doesn't want to get blamed for No Deal, and he doesn't want to get blamed for selling out. Hence Mrs May is still Prime Minister.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    50.
    In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

    How does a border in the Irish sea 'continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.'?

    How does a vet carrying out a few random checks on a truck full of sheep fetter access to the U.K. single market?
    Barnier told Foster that checks would go from 10% to 100%....
    How would veterinary checks on all sheep fetter access to the U.K. single market?
    Aren’t the vets all EU nationals?
    So what?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Latest CBS/YouGov forecast shows the Democrats are on course to win a majority in the House of Representatives, but don't have a lot of leeway:

    Dem: 226, GOP: 209

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-lead-continues-to-grow-in-race-for-house-cbs-news-poll-battleground-tracker/
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    DUP don't bluff. It's existential.

    What part of No do you not understand, eh.
    No nay never. NEVER!
    The problem, as far as the DUP is concerned, is that the whole thing stems from the Treaty of Rome.
    Therefore an extreme negative view is the default position.
    The other problem is that Northern Ireland benefits from both being in a close trading arrangement with the Republic, and being a part of the UK. (From whence it gets big public sector contracts and £11bn a year.)

    It's hard to see how Northern Ireland benefits economically from Brexit, even if the rest of the UK does very well. And it does particularly poorly out of No Deal Brexit. (Albeit the Republic probably does even worse.)

    Running with the idea that economic benefit is what matters is what led Remain astray in the first place.
    But I'm not talking about the referendum. I'm talking about what happens in Northern Ireland if there is a nasty post Brexit recession.

    It's very easy to talk about the importance of being British when you have a secure job. Being British is not so important if you're newly unemployed.

    Of course, Northern Ireland is a small place. The UK can increase subsidies there to help them deal with the potential loss of cross border trade. But there will be losers. And some of them will be sore.
    You didn't mention recession. You were talking about a changed trading relationship. Anyway how does the recession come about? Insufficient domestic spending? The £300m per week we don't flush into Brussels might help a bit there. And there's nothing to stop the BoE setting the interest rate appropriately for the domestic economy to offset deficient demand if we went all anaemic because of Brexit.
    My point is that Northern Ireland will be the most negatively impacted part of the UK by No Deal. I don't think that is particularly controversial as far as claims go.

    I also find your comment about interest rates a little bizarre. The UK's household final consumption is already among the highest in the developed world. The structural issues with the UK economy will not be solved by adding more debt.
    look at SF and DUP and you will quickly understand that getting elected in NI has nothing to do with making your voters better off.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Fenster said:

    JonathanD said:

    Fenster said:

    Leavers have to be very careful here however. Topple May, and Brexit is I think, lost.

    I am sure of it. Indeed if we have learned anything today TM has fired a huge warning shot to ERG over her coded message that a no deal will be handed to the House to decide

    After today the chance of remain must have risen

    It would be ironic if ERG lose there dream by pushing too hard
    It'll be NO DEAL.

    The ERG hold all the cards. They don't have the power to bring forward a deal that commands the backing of the Commons (or one the EU will support) but they do have the power to bounce legislation round the House through delaying tactics, meaning Article 50 runs out of time.

    If the shit really starts to hit the fan it'll be interesting to see if Varadkar blinks. Ireland will disproportionately suffer from No Deal more than any other country.
    Ireland aren't setting the EUs negotiating terms.

    Ireland will be hurt by a no deal Brexit but their response isn't going to be blame the EU but to blame the UK.
    Yep. But that won't make their plight any better.
    Of course not. My point is that we can tighten the vice on Ireland all we want but it's not going to get us a better deal with the EU.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that the Finance Director of Patisserie Valerie has been arrested. I think that means he's now in custardy.

    He's going to get pastried, no question. How does a quote company have "secret" overdrafts?
    As an ex-Finance Director, I have absolutely no idea. In our business we had something called "controls". I mean, he could walk into (say) Metro Bank and open a bank account in his firm's name. But unless it was a trading account, with (you know) revenues flowing through, then I can't see how they could possibly have offered an overdraft. And if revenues were flowing through, then how on earth was it a secret?
    They were financing store openings with cash at the start of the year.

    So.. circulating money through the accounts (obscured, secretly) to simulate revenue flow to get the overdrafts to fund the store openings with "free" cash?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that the Finance Director of Patisserie Valerie has been arrested. I think that means he's now in custardy.

    Aargh, if things go badly he might do porridge.
    Depends what sachertorte he is guilty of.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin :)
    It won't if No Deal, it will lose
    If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
    What would be the mechanism for an early election ?

    May resigns, new Con leader. Move on.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    JonathanD said:

    Fenster said:

    Leavers have to be very careful here however. Topple May, and Brexit is I think, lost.

    I am sure of it. Indeed if we have learned anything today TM has fired a huge warning shot to ERG over her coded message that a no deal will be handed to the House to decide

    After today the chance of remain must have risen

    It would be ironic if ERG lose there dream by pushing too hard
    It'll be NO DEAL.

    The ERG hold all the cards. They don't have the power to bring forward a deal that commands the backing of the Commons (or one the EU will support) but they do have the power to bounce legislation round the House through delaying tactics, meaning Article 50 runs out of time.

    If the shit really starts to hit the fan it'll be interesting to see if Varadkar blinks. Ireland will disproportionately suffer from No Deal more than any other country.
    Ireland aren't setting the EUs negotiating terms.

    Ireland will be hurt by a no deal Brexit but their response isn't going to be blame the EU but to blame the UK.
    though it might well cost Varadkar his job
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that the Finance Director of Patisserie Valerie has been arrested. I think that means he's now in custardy.

    He's going to get pastried, no question. How does a quote company have "secret" overdrafts?
    As an ex-Finance Director, I have absolutely no idea. In our business we had something called "controls". I mean, he could walk into (say) Metro Bank and open a bank account in his firm's name. But unless it was a trading account, with (you know) revenues flowing through, then I can't see how they could possibly have offered an overdraft. And if revenues were flowing through, then how on earth was it a secret?
    I think the only possible answer to that is that the books and records the company were seeing were not the same as the bank was seeing. Fraud, I think they call it. Quite, quite bizarre.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    IanB2 said:

    Fenster said:

    Leavers have to be very careful here however. Topple May, and Brexit is I think, lost.

    I am sure of it. Indeed if we have learned anything today TM has fired a huge warning shot to ERG over her coded message that a no deal will be handed to the House to decide

    After today the chance of remain must have risen

    It would be ironic if ERG lose there dream by pushing too hard
    It'll be NO DEAL.

    The ERG hold all the cards. They don't have the power to bring forward a deal that commands the backing of the Commons (or one the EU will support) but they do have the power to bounce legislation round the House through delaying tactics, meaning Article 50 runs out of time.

    If the shit really starts to hit the fan it'll be interesting to see if Varadkar blinks. Ireland will disproportionately suffer from No Deal more than any other country.
    The ERG's ace can be trumped with the thought that if the deal is rejected the government would ask for an A50 extension rather than face the chaos and political damage of crashing out unprepared.
    ...and Viktor Orban blocks that extension. Because he can. And because the MEP Tories were nice to him in Brussels.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Jonathan said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that the Finance Director of Patisserie Valerie has been arrested. I think that means he's now in custardy.

    He's going to get pastried, no question. How does a quote company have "secret" overdrafts?
    When will he be eligible for profiterole?
    :lol:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin :)
    It won't if No Deal, it will lose
    If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
    What would be the mechanism for an early election ?

    May resigns, new Con leader. Move on.

    Lots of projection going on.

    When asked what happens if her deal is rejected by the House, May said what happened next would be up to the house.

    This statement of the obvious is leapt on by some as 'EURef2 nailed on'.

    What else was she going to say?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    IanB2 said:

    Fenster said:

    Leavers have to be very careful here however. Topple May, and Brexit is I think, lost.

    I am sure of it. Indeed if we have learned anything today TM has fired a huge warning shot to ERG over her coded message that a no deal will be handed to the House to decide

    After today the chance of remain must have risen

    It would be ironic if ERG lose there dream by pushing too hard
    It'll be NO DEAL.

    The ERG hold all the cards. They don't have the power to bring forward a deal that commands the backing of the Commons (or one the EU will support) but they do have the power to bounce legislation round the House through delaying tactics, meaning Article 50 runs out of time.

    If the shit really starts to hit the fan it'll be interesting to see if Varadkar blinks. Ireland will disproportionately suffer from No Deal more than any other country.
    The ERG's ace can be trumped with the thought that if the deal is rejected the government would ask for an A50 extension rather than face the chaos and political damage of crashing out unprepared.
    ...and Viktor Orban blocks that extension. Because he can. And because the MEP Tories were nice to him in Brussels.
    Aren't MEP Tories mostly in favour of EU?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    If the DUP support the deal the ERG will as well. Especially if it is being opposed by Grieve, Soubry, Allen, etc.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that the Finance Director of Patisserie Valerie has been arrested. I think that means he's now in custardy.

    He's going to get pastried, no question. How does a quoted company have "secret" overdrafts?
    You'd hope the auditors were feeling ever so slightly uneasy, as well.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited October 2018

    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that the Finance Director of Patisserie Valerie has been arrested. I think that means he's now in custardy.

    Aargh, if things go badly he might do porridge.
    The shareholders must be feeling very croissant
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    50.
    In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

    How does a border in the Irish sea 'continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.'?

    How does a vet carrying out a few random checks on a truck full of sheep fetter access to the U.K. single market?
    Barnier told Foster that checks would go from 10% to 100%....
    How would veterinary checks on all sheep fetter access to the U.K. single market?
    Aren’t the vets all EU nationals?
    So what?
    So there won’t be any!
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin :)
    It won't if No Deal, it will lose
    If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
    What would be the mechanism for an early election ?

    May resigns, new Con leader. Move on.

    Surely there'd be a vote of no confidence, the govt would fall and Corbyn would get to form a minority govt. Then with the Tories torn asunder and leaderless Corbyn could call and election knowing it'd be a banker, offering to borrow and spend billions to see us through Hard Brexit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Ishmael_Z said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that the Finance Director of Patisserie Valerie has been arrested. I think that means he's now in custardy.

    He's going to get pastried, no question. How does a quoted company have "secret" overdrafts?
    You'd hope the auditors were feeling ever so slightly uneasy, as well.
    Absolutely. You don't expect much from the auditors other than a humongous bill and pages of incomprehensible verbiage that no one ever reads but you do expect them to reconcile the bank.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    IanB2 said:

    Fenster said:

    Leavers have to be very careful here however. Topple May, and Brexit is I think, lost.

    I am sure of it. Indeed if we have learned anything today TM has fired a huge warning shot to ERG over her coded message that a no deal will be handed to the House to decide

    After today the chance of remain must have risen

    It would be ironic if ERG lose there dream by pushing too hard
    It'll be NO DEAL.

    The ERG hold all the cards. They don't have the power to bring forward a deal that commands the backing of the Commons (or one the EU will support) but they do have the power to bounce legislation round the House through delaying tactics, meaning Article 50 runs out of time.

    If the shit really starts to hit the fan it'll be interesting to see if Varadkar blinks. Ireland will disproportionately suffer from No Deal more than any other country.
    The ERG's ace can be trumped with the thought that if the deal is rejected the government would ask for an A50 extension rather than face the chaos and political damage of crashing out unprepared.
    ...and Viktor Orban blocks that extension. Because he can. And because the MEP Tories were nice to him in Brussels.
    Aren't MEP Tories mostly in favour of EU?
    They are probably demob happy by now.....why else vote with Orban?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin :)
    It won't if No Deal, it will lose
    If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
    What would be the mechanism for an early election ?

    May resigns, new Con leader. Move on.

    Lots of projection going on.

    When asked what happens if her deal is rejected by the House, May said what happened next would be up to the house.

    This statement of the obvious is leapt on by some as 'EURef2 nailed on'.

    What else was she going to say?
    Obviously nothing is 'nailed on' and there's no majority for anything. However the worst outcome for most would be a No Deal and one way out of that would be a People's Vote.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    JonathanD said:

    Fenster said:

    Leavers have to be very careful here however. Topple May, and Brexit is I think, lost.

    I am sure of it. Indeed if we have learned anything today TM has fired a huge warning shot to ERG over her coded message that a no deal will be handed to the House to decide

    After today the chance of remain must have risen

    It would be ironic if ERG lose there dream by pushing too hard
    It'll be NO DEAL.

    The ERG hold all the cards. They don't have the power to bring forward a deal that commands the backing of the Commons (or one the EU will support) but they do have the power to bounce legislation round the House through delaying tactics, meaning Article 50 runs out of time.

    If the shit really starts to hit the fan it'll be interesting to see if Varadkar blinks. Ireland will disproportionately suffer from No Deal more than any other country.
    Ireland aren't setting the EUs negotiating terms.

    Ireland will be hurt by a no deal Brexit but their response isn't going to be blame the EU but to blame the UK.
    though it might well cost Varadkar his job
    And sooner than May hers....
  • The difficulty I see with this debate on PB (with views from mostly passionate and opinionated contributors on all sides) is that doesn't necessarily really reflect the view of the average person.

    There is a real sense I get of many people having severe "Brexit fatigue" from all of this. They just want it sorted. And move on.

    The problem with no deal (or another referendum) is that this debate just seems to continue forever more.

    Therefore they may be much more public appetite for May's deal (if she can get one) than you might expect, especially when faced with a severe looking cliff edge. People just want to move on from Brexit and focus on other national priorities (NHS, etc). PB is possibly a bit of an outlier.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ERG might as well get the letters in tonight and try to get rid of her.
    The problem remains that the only one of them desperate for the job is Boris Johnson.
    I thought things were moving in favour of David Davis?
    According to @Charles, he doesn't want the job.

    If Dominic Raab wanted it, he could probably get it. But here's the thing: he doesn't want to get blamed for No Deal, and he doesn't want to get blamed for selling out. Hence Mrs May is still Prime Minister.
    "I am only taking on this role, temporarily and reluctantly, because the nation needs me...."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. WC, there may be something in that, but May does need to get anything past her own party and the Commons.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    We voted for unicorns. Why can't the politicians make it happen?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    edited October 2018
    Just watched Mary Lou Macdonanld make an arse of herself, Sinn Fein on the slide if thats the best they can do.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    The difficulty I see with this debate on PB (with views from mostly passionate and opinionated contributors on all sides) is that doesn't necessarily really reflect the view of the average person.

    There is a real sense I get of many people having severe "Brexit fatigue" from all of this. They just want it sorted. And move on.

    The problem with no deal (or another referendum) is that this debate just seems to continue forever more.

    Therefore they may be much more public appetite for May's deal (if she can get one) than you might expect, especially when faced with a severe looking cliff edge. People just want to move on from Brexit and focus on other national priorities (NHS, etc). PB is possibly a bit of an outlier.

    +1
  • NEW THREAD

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin :)
    It won't if No Deal, it will lose
    If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
    What would be the mechanism for an early election ?

    May resigns, new Con leader. Move on.

    Lots of projection going on.

    When asked what happens if her deal is rejected by the House, May said what happened next would be up to the house.

    This statement of the obvious is leapt on by some as 'EURef2 nailed on'.

    What else was she going to say?
    Obviously nothing is 'nailed on' and there's no majority for anything. However the worst outcome for most would be a No Deal and one way out of that would be a People's Vote.
    'No deal' happens on the 29th of March, unless something else is agreed - a deal, or an extension of Article 50, which require unanimity among the 27. And there's no guarantee that a second referendum would result in a different outcome.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited October 2018
    Fenster said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin :)
    It won't if No Deal, it will lose
    If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
    What would be the mechanism for an early election ?

    May resigns, new Con leader. Move on.

    Surely there'd be a vote of no confidence, the govt would fall and Corbyn would get to form a minority govt. Then with the Tories torn asunder and leaderless Corbyn could call and election knowing it'd be a banker, offering to borrow and spend billions to see us through Hard Brexit.
    Corbyn could not call a GE under the FTPA. He would need either a 2/3 majority or have his government no confidenced. Corbyn can control neither of these.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin :)
    It won't if No Deal, it will lose
    If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
    What would be the mechanism for an early election ?

    May resigns, new Con leader. Move on.

    Lots of projection going on.

    When asked what happens if her deal is rejected by the House, May said what happened next would be up to the house.

    This statement of the obvious is leapt on by some as 'EURef2 nailed on'.

    What else was she going to say?
    Obviously nothing is 'nailed on' and there's no majority for anything. However the worst outcome for most would be a No Deal and one way out of that would be a People's Vote.
    The only people who use the term "People's Vote" are wankers.

    The reason we have Brexit is only because the badgers voted for it. As payback for the cull, obviously.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin :)
    It won't if No Deal, it will lose
    If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
    Just supposing that happens, would the large number of pro-EU Labour MPs, plus the SNP, LibDems, Green etc not force him to 'be reasonable'.
    I'm told Corbyn may be anti-EU, but that it's not his highest priority, he won't want his (probably minority) administration bogged down like May's has been.
    Corbyn campaigned on a platform of "Remain but Reform" before the EUref. As the media and the PLP fully expected him to be replaced in the not so secret coup, they quite cheerfully ignored him not realising that he was getting large crowds at his meetings.
  • DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I hear that the Finance Director of Patisserie Valerie has been arrested. I think that means he's now in custardy.

    He's going to get pastried, no question. How does a quote company have "secret" overdrafts?
    As an ex-Finance Director, I have absolutely no idea. In our business we had something called "controls". I mean, he could walk into (say) Metro Bank and open a bank account in his firm's name. But unless it was a trading account, with (you know) revenues flowing through, then I can't see how they could possibly have offered an overdraft. And if revenues were flowing through, then how on earth was it a secret?
    I think the only possible answer to that is that the books and records the company were seeing were not the same as the bank was seeing. Fraud, I think they call it. Quite, quite bizarre.
    Have they been d' éclair-ed bankrupt?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:
    I must do something...this is something
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited October 2018
    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin :)
    It won't if No Deal, it will lose
    If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
    If Corbyn becomes PM he will only be able to have a majority with SNP, LD and Labour Remainer MPs support, they will all demand the UK stays in the Single Market and the Customs Union if he wants to stay PM and get any legislation through
    There'd be a new election beforehand surely? With teh Tories getting trounced and Corbyn making hay.

    @Logicalsong If Corbyn ever gets to power he will compromise with NOBODY
    Even if Corbyn wins a landslide most of his members and MPs will demand either EUref2 or that the UK stays in the single market
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    50.
    In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

    How does a border in the Irish sea 'continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.'?

    How does a vet carrying out a few random checks on a truck full of sheep fetter access to the U.K. single market?
    Barnier told Foster that checks would go from 10% to 100%....
    How would veterinary checks on all sheep fetter access to the U.K. single market?
    It’s the symbolism as you well know


  • Valerie by Amy Winehouse

    Well sometimes I go out by myself
    And I look across the water
    And I think of all the things, what you're doing
    And in my head I paint a picture
    'Cause since I've come on home,
    Well my body's been a mess
    And I've missed your ginger hair
    And the way you like to dress
    Won't you come on over
    Stop making a fool out of me
    Why don't you come on over Valerie?

    Valerie
    Valerie
    Valerie

    Did you have to go to jail,
    Put your house up for sale, did you get a good lawyer?
    I hope you didn't catch a tan,
    I hope you'll find the right man who'll fix it for ya
    And are you shopping anywhere,
    Changed the color of your hair, are you busy?
    And did you have to pay that fine
    You were dodging all the time, are you still dizzy?
  • TGOHF said:

    Fenster said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin :)
    It won't if No Deal, it will lose
    If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
    What would be the mechanism for an early election ?

    May resigns, new Con leader. Move on.

    Lots of projection going on.

    When asked what happens if her deal is rejected by the House, May said what happened next would be up to the house.

    This statement of the obvious is leapt on by some as 'EURef2 nailed on'.

    What else was she going to say?
    Obviously nothing is 'nailed on' and there's no majority for anything. However the worst outcome for most would be a No Deal and one way out of that would be a People's Vote.
    The only people who use the term "People's Vote" are wankers.

    The reason we have Brexit is only because the badgers voted for it. As payback for the cull, obviously.
    A black and white Brexit.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ERG might as well get the letters in tonight and try to get rid of her.
    The problem remains that the only one of them desperate for the job is Boris Johnson.
    I thought things were moving in favour of David Davis?
    According to @Charles, he doesn't want the job.

    If Dominic Raab wanted it, he could probably get it. But here's the thing: he doesn't want to get blamed for No Deal, and he doesn't want to get blamed for selling out. Hence Mrs May is still Prime Minister.
    I was surprised by the support for Boris (even if he needed to be wrangled like a toddler) - my point that you shouldn’t elect someone who needs wrangling as PM

    But Raab was their backstop


  • Valerie by Amy Winehouse

    Well sometimes I go out by myself
    And I look across the water
    And I think of all the things, what you're doing
    And in my head I paint a picture
    'Cause since I've come on home,
    Well my body's been a mess
    And I've missed your ginger hair
    And the way you like to dress
    Won't you come on over
    Stop making a fool out of me
    Why don't you come on over Valerie?

    Valerie
    Valerie
    Valerie

    Did you have to go to jail,
    Put your house up for sale, did you get a good lawyer?
    I hope you didn't catch a tan,
    I hope you'll find the right man who'll fix it for ya
    And are you shopping anywhere,
    Changed the color of your hair, are you busy?
    And did you have to pay that fine
    You were dodging all the time, are you still dizzy?

    Zutons lead singer had a girlfriend in the states, he’d go down to one of Merseyside’s beaches and look out across the water
This discussion has been closed.