. The Progressive Unionist Party held their conference at the weekend, these are the guys who actually did shoot you an extraxt from their winding up
" We want to make the case again for Northern Ireland. The DUP have come to represent Northern Ireland to those outside, a party whose political lexicon mostly consists of the word NO. Yet this misrepresents the people of Northern Ireland, a people who are friendly, warm industrious, resilient, genuine, resourceful, welcoming, humorous, gifted, and creative, if at times also fractious and obdurate. We want to create a country of which people can be proud, where everyone plays their part and makes their contribution, Gael and Planter, Unionist and Nationalist and newcomer."
Nigel Dodds heard in near silence - clearly worth paying attention to.
He asked clearly whether May would confirm that NI would not be left in the CU OR the SM, and May did not answer him. She talked about how NI would be able to trade with both the EU and UK - pretty much confirmation that she intends to agree to a regulatory border in the Irish Sea. This is Barnier's language.
This is all just theatre. She is going to come back with the UK backstop that is 'temporary' but that the UK has no ability to exit without activating the NI backstop.
I think the DUP, the ERG and the Leavers in the Cabinet are listening to this and realising that May is never going get it and will have to be replaced. It has been a hapless performance.
Am I right in thinking that I have missed nothing of any interest?
It seems that she is attempting to keep the DUP on board but also playing for time, though she has rejected Canada ++
Not sure how this pans out. Maybe just keep kicking the can down the road to reduce the time to putting a deal to the HOC maybe as late as the end of December
Nigel Dodds heard in near silence - clearly worth paying attention to.
He asked clearly whether May would confirm that NI would not be left in the CU OR the SM, and May did not answer him. She talked about how NI would be able to trade with both the EU and UK - pretty much confirmation that she intends to agree to a regulatory border in the Irish Sea. This is Barnier's language.
This is all just theatre. She is going to come back with the UK backstop that is 'temporary' but that the UK has no ability to exit without activating the NI backstop.
I think the DUP, the ERG and the Leavers in the Cabinet are listening to this and realising that May is never going get it and will have to be replaced. It has been a hapless performance.
They do not seem to have the numbers and of course a wrong move by them will see TM in office for a further 12 months. Also the DUP do not control the conservative mps
Actually Boris did and so did Mr Dodds on behalf of the DUP. Both of which are pretty significant given the arithmetic in the House. So Dan's comment is to his usual standard.
May being very careful with her words about NI but to me she just confirmed that NI would be party to any future UK trade deals. How does this work?
Not what she said. She is saying that IF Chequers is agreed, the there would be no backstop and therefore NI could be part of the trade deals that would be done.
The problem is that Chequers is a fantasy and in any event not legally binding.
She did not say that in all circumstances NI could be included in UK trade deals, because it is not true.
Nigel Dodds heard in near silence - clearly worth paying attention to.
He asked clearly whether May would confirm that NI would not be left in the CU OR the SM, and May did not answer him. She talked about how NI would be able to trade with both the EU and UK - pretty much confirmation that she intends to agree to a regulatory border in the Irish Sea. This is Barnier's language.
This is all just theatre. She is going to come back with the UK backstop that is 'temporary' but that the UK has no ability to exit without activating the NI backstop.
I think the DUP, the ERG and the Leavers in the Cabinet are listening to this and realising that May is never going get it and will have to be replaced. It has been a hapless performance.
It seems equally likely that she wants the UK as a whole in the CU or SM/CU. Which would likewise ensure frictionless trade between the UK's component parts.
Actually Boris did and so did Mr Dodds on behalf of the DUP. Both of which are pretty significant given the arithmetic in the House. So Dan's comment is to his usual standard.
Its gone beyond parody. We know all of the things she is against. All she is for is "Brexit", and when the list of viable options is read out she says "no" to all of them.
Conclusions: 1. De Facto if not yet De Jure the policy of HMG is No Deal 2. She has accepted that all viable options will be voted down/rejected/have her sacked. Thefore the only option is to kick the can down the road until it gets swept over the waterfall 3. She hopes to smear all of her opponents (pretty much everyone) with shit so that when she joins Andrea Jenkyns with "you're fucked, but you're BRITISH and that means you'll starve with patriotic fervour. Vote Conservative" they won't sack her
We CANNOT keep prevaricating any longer yet "no" is her answer to all scenarios. So her own personal survival is all that matters - perhaps it is similar to Brown where Godly toil will ultimately be rewarded.
Electorally there is no benefit to be had here. Its a small minority who when project fear turns into reality will be happy. The rest will be shocked, then angry, then furious. As others have pointed out its votes on both sides that decide elections, and you can only see the Tory vote haemmorage whether or not she now blinks and capitulates or patriotically hurls us over the edge. Labour will "win" the next election, but what ruins will they take charge of?
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Nigel Dodds heard in near silence - clearly worth paying attention to.
He asked clearly whether May would confirm that NI would not be left in the CU OR the SM, and May did not answer him. She talked about how NI would be able to trade with both the EU and UK - pretty much confirmation that she intends to agree to a regulatory border in the Irish Sea. This is Barnier's language.
This is all just theatre. She is going to come back with the UK backstop that is 'temporary' but that the UK has no ability to exit without activating the NI backstop.
I think the DUP, the ERG and the Leavers in the Cabinet are listening to this and realising that May is never going get it and will have to be replaced. It has been a hapless performance.
They do not seem to have the numbers and of course a wrong move by them will see TM in office for a further 12 months. Also the DUP do not control the conservative mps
Or has the mood changed?
From this level of support in the House, and the alleged level of support from the Cabinet, it may have got to the point where both wings of the Brexit debate see that she is untenable. If the letters go in I can now see more MPs on the remain side voting No Confidence. I can no longer see many Con MPs who would give her confidence.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Or alternatively it encourages the different sides in parliament to be more cognisant of the stalemate. So far the argument that's been put most consistently by MPs has been about the need to go back to the people.
May being very careful with her words about NI but to me she just confirmed that NI would be party to any future UK trade deals. How does this work?
Not what she said. She is saying that IF Chequers is agreed, the there would be no backstop and therefore NI could be part of the trade deals that would be done.
The problem is that Chequers is a fantasy and in any event not legally binding.
She did not say that in all circumstances NI could be included in UK trade deals, because it is not true.
No I think she did say that in reply to Dodds. Whether it is true is another matter.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
They may feel sorry for her and they no doubt genuinely want to avoid No Deal, but what can they actually do? They can't allow cherry picking and they can't sell Eire out regarding the border.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Nigel Dodds heard in near silence - clearly worth paying attention to.
He asked clearly whether May would confirm that NI would not be left in the CU OR the SM, and May did not answer him. She talked about how NI would be able to trade with both the EU and UK - pretty much confirmation that she intends to agree to a regulatory border in the Irish Sea. This is Barnier's language.
This is all just theatre. She is going to come back with the UK backstop that is 'temporary' but that the UK has no ability to exit without activating the NI backstop.
I think the DUP, the ERG and the Leavers in the Cabinet are listening to this and realising that May is never going get it and will have to be replaced. It has been a hapless performance.
They do not seem to have the numbers and of course a wrong move by them will see TM in office for a further 12 months. Also the DUP do not control the conservative mps
Or has the mood changed?
it may have got to the point where both wings of the Brexit debate see that she is untenable.
Its not May that is untenable, its the Conservative party that's untenable.
Am I right in thinking that I have missed nothing of any interest?
Other than our political class making embarrassing fools of themselves. Again. No.
PS I hope you got a humungous bonus for your rain-making suggestion that McDonnell nationalise pensions. The amount of work that will create must have made your appraisers very happy indeed!
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
They may feel sorry for her and they no doubt genuinely want to avoid No Deal, but what can they actually do? They can't allow cherry picking and they can't sell Eire out regarding the border.
the border is a made up issue, they can kill it any time they want
Nigel Dodds heard in near silence - clearly worth paying attention to.
He asked clearly whether May would confirm that NI would not be left in the CU OR the SM, and May did not answer him. She talked about how NI would be able to trade with both the EU and UK - pretty much confirmation that she intends to agree to a regulatory border in the Irish Sea. This is Barnier's language.
This is all just theatre. She is going to come back with the UK backstop that is 'temporary' but that the UK has no ability to exit without activating the NI backstop.
I think the DUP, the ERG and the Leavers in the Cabinet are listening to this and realising that May is never going get it and will have to be replaced. It has been a hapless performance.
They do not seem to have the numbers and of course a wrong move by them will see TM in office for a further 12 months. Also the DUP do not control the conservative mps
Or has the mood changed?
From this level of support in the House, and the alleged level of support from the Cabinet, it may have got to the point where both wings of the Brexit debate see that she is untenable. If the letters go in I can now see more MPs on the remain side voting No Confidence. I can no longer see many Con MPs who would give her confidence.
'No confidence' in the government? That's of course different from a challenge to Mrs May for leadership of the Tory Party.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
They may feel sorry for her and they no doubt genuinely want to avoid No Deal, but what can they actually do? They can't allow cherry picking and they can't sell Eire out regarding the border.
the border is a made up issue, they can kill it any time they want
It is an issue because there will be a land border between the EU and a third country, and that border will be in NI.
The EU haven't 'made' it an issue. It is an issue. It always was.
no there were enough ways to make the border go away so that it didnt stall a deal. The EU chose to make this a negotiating point and now are increasingly hosited on their own petard. They charged in to the Ulster cul de sac and now are surprised theres no way forward.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Agreed. This is a part of the negotiation and the Commons has played its part.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
They may feel sorry for her and they no doubt genuinely want to avoid No Deal, but what can they actually do? They can't allow cherry picking and they can't sell Eire out regarding the border.
the border is a made up issue, they can kill it any time they want
Tell that to the DUP.
the DUP are quite contentedly sitting like a fat spider pulling the strings. The stupidity of Dublin London and Brussels has put them there and they will have their pound of flesh
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
They may feel sorry for her and they no doubt genuinely want to avoid No Deal, but what can they actually do? They can't allow cherry picking and they can't sell Eire out regarding the border.
the border is a made up issue, they can kill it any time they want
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
They may feel sorry for her and they no doubt genuinely want to avoid No Deal, but what can they actually do? They can't allow cherry picking and they can't sell Eire out regarding the border.
the border is a made up issue, they can kill it any time they want
How? By allowing a hard border? By keeping a soft border and thus ignoring the fact the UK will be a third-party after Brexit? Everyone's looking for an answer here.
Comments
Highlighting the divisions within the Tory party very effectively.
It’s the way he did it though.
...another day in No10
The Progressive Unionist Party held their conference at the weekend, these are the guys who actually did shoot you an extraxt from their winding up
" We want to make the case again for Northern Ireland. The DUP have come to represent Northern Ireland to those outside, a party whose political lexicon mostly consists of the word NO. Yet this misrepresents the people of Northern Ireland, a people who are friendly, warm industrious, resilient, genuine, resourceful, welcoming, humorous, gifted, and creative, if at times also fractious and obdurate. We want to create a country of which people can be proud, where everyone plays their part and makes their contribution, Gael and Planter, Unionist and Nationalist and newcomer."
How did it go?
This is all just theatre. She is going to come back with the UK backstop that is 'temporary' but that the UK has no ability to exit without activating the NI backstop.
I think the DUP, the ERG and the Leavers in the Cabinet are listening to this and realising that May is never going get it and will have to be replaced. It has been a hapless performance.
Or it was, anyway.
Aurelian wouldn't've dicked about by this. And he faced far worse problems. But then, he was a fantastic leader.
Not sure how this pans out. Maybe just keep kicking the can down the road to reduce the time to putting a deal to the HOC maybe as late as the end of December
Maybe tonight will be when the magic 48 is reached?
when Adonis leaves the Lods he must be trated with derision and contempt all the time
https://twitter.com/theguyliner/status/1051856122884317184
What is your profession.... ?
The problem is that Chequers is a fantasy and in any event not legally binding.
She did not say that in all circumstances NI could be included in UK trade deals, because it is not true.
There is no 'this'. No deal has been made and none looks remotely likely.
Trump denies offering $1 million for Warren DNA test, even though he did
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/411414-trump-denies-offering-1-million-for-warren-dna-test-even-though-he
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-astrazeneca/astrazeneca-halts-uk-investments-due-to-brexit-le-monde-idUKKCN1MP1Q9
Conclusions:
1. De Facto if not yet De Jure the policy of HMG is No Deal
2. She has accepted that all viable options will be voted down/rejected/have her sacked. Thefore the only option is to kick the can down the road until it gets swept over the waterfall
3. She hopes to smear all of her opponents (pretty much everyone) with shit so that when she joins Andrea Jenkyns with "you're fucked, but you're BRITISH and that means you'll starve with patriotic fervour. Vote Conservative" they won't sack her
We CANNOT keep prevaricating any longer yet "no" is her answer to all scenarios. So her own personal survival is all that matters - perhaps it is similar to Brown where Godly toil will ultimately be rewarded.
Electorally there is no benefit to be had here. Its a small minority who when project fear turns into reality will be happy. The rest will be shocked, then angry, then furious. As others have pointed out its votes on both sides that decide elections, and you can only see the Tory vote haemmorage whether or not she now blinks and capitulates or patriotically hurls us over the edge. Labour will "win" the next election, but what ruins will they take charge of?
From this level of support in the House, and the alleged level of support from the Cabinet, it may have got to the point where both wings of the Brexit debate see that she is untenable. If the letters go in I can now see more MPs on the remain side voting No Confidence. I can no longer see many Con MPs who would give her confidence.
The guy has spent the last year or so on the EU's side of the negotiating table.
Opening for a second referendum ?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1051859689590407168
They can't allow cherry picking and they can't sell Eire out regarding the border.
Thought everything had to go through Barnier
PS I hope you got a humungous bonus for your rain-making suggestion that McDonnell nationalise pensions. The amount of work that will create must have made your appraisers very happy indeed!
That's of course different from a challenge to Mrs May for leadership of the Tory Party.
The EU haven't 'made' it an issue. It is an issue. It always was.
Riding to the rescue with an offer to change EU policy - limits on migration all round?
Although maybe we could already:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/06/free-movement-isnt-free-truth-about-eu-immigration
let sleeping dogs lie