Astra used to be a big player in Loughborough years ago, I knew lots of people who used to work there. They bailed out of the town 8 years ago with 1200 job losses. I'm not saying Brexit isn't an issue for them, but according to people who relocated to other sites, they have been cutting back for years.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
They may feel sorry for her and they no doubt genuinely want to avoid No Deal, but what can they actually do? They can't allow cherry picking and they can't sell Eire out regarding the border.
the border is a made up issue, they can kill it any time they want
Tell that to the DUP.
the DUP are quite contentedly sitting like a fat spider pulling the strings. The stupidity of Dublin London and Brussels has put them there and they will have their pound of flesh
However it pans out, at the next election they will say they - and they alone - stood up for Northern Ireland. It's a (vote) winning strategy.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Agreed. This is a part of the negotiation and the Commons has played its part.
I'm feeling sorry for her, she was given the mother of all hospital passes. Made some huge cock ups, but trying to do the best thing for all people, and pleasing no one.
Maybe Brexit really is un-deliverable, but the consquences of backing out and staying are just as grim.
Doesn't look good for May. Tonight's news bulletins will not be good, judging by the stream of tweets from pol journalists saying this has exposed how little support she has anywhere in the Commons.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
They may feel sorry for her and they no doubt genuinely want to avoid No Deal, but what can they actually do? They can't allow cherry picking and they can't sell Eire out regarding the border.
the border is a made up issue, they can kill it any time they want
How? By allowing a hard border? By keeping a soft border and thus ignoring the fact the UK will be a third-party after Brexit? Everyone's looking for an answer here.
by dropping the issue totally, setting up an UK Ireland working group and putting the thing to bed. The volume of inter Irish trade is less than the turnover of Nissan Sunderland its not a big volume of trade.
Astra used to be a big player in Loughborough years ago, I knew lots of people who used to work there. They bailed out of the town 8 years ago with 1200 job losses. I'm not saying Brexit isn't an issue for them, but according to people who relocated to other sites, they have been cutting back for years.
Lab don't need new voters. They just need enough conservatives ****ed off by this shower to sit on their hands.
But will they if Corbyn/McDonell and Momentum are the alternative?
Absolutely, 100% yes!
In fact a lot of people will be like me and will not only sit on their hands but will walk to the polling booth and vote for Corbyn just to get the Tories out.
Mr. Slackbladder, I partly agree. She did want the job, and knew the referendum result when she went for it.
Like Didius Julianus, she may be regretting her ascension.
I think she honestly thought she could do it. She thought it was like the ECJ where she could opt out of it and rejoin the bits she liked. She now knows it doesn't work like that.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Agreed. This is a part of the negotiation and the Commons has played its part.
I'm feeling sorry for her, she was given the mother of all hospital passes. Made some huge cock ups, but trying to do the best thing for all people, and pleasing no one.
Maybe Brexit really is un-deliverable, but the consquences of backing out and staying are just as grim.
And yet, I don't want to rejoin either.... oh my.
The reality is that we need to take the deal on offer. She is desperately trying to improve that deal so it is (a) better for the country and (b) more likely to pass the HoC. Today has demonstrated to anyone watching what is needed for that and even then it is not a sure thing. One hopes that the EU were watching and appreciate how little room for maneuver she has.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
They may feel sorry for her and they no doubt genuinely want to avoid No Deal, but what can they actually do? They can't allow cherry picking and they can't sell Eire out regarding the border.
the border is a made up issue, they can kill it any time they want
Tell that to the DUP.
the DUP are quite contentedly sitting like a fat spider pulling the strings. The stupidity of Dublin London and Brussels has put them there and they will have their pound of flesh
However it pans out, at the next election they will say they - and they alone - stood up for Northern Ireland. It's a (vote) winning strategy.
That will be their view. Arlene Foster knows she will be in office in 2022, Leo Varadkar cant say the same
So there is no support for whatever the government's position bar a half dozen backbenchers. Which doesn't matter as they don't have a deal to vote on anyway. MPs seem unlikely to just sit on their hands and not vote - which as I said seems to be the de facto the May strategy now.
"A second referendum isn't up to me" is brilliant - invites rebellious MPs (all of them...) to come up with their own ideas in the absence of a government plan. So a third referendum or a General Election really are in scope, as is a vote to compel HMG to NOT accept a No Deal scenario.
ERG might as well get the letters in tonight and try to get rid of her.
Yeh, why not. It'll fail and then they can be ignored.
They are being ignored anyway... Theresa's now opened the door to second referendum which is the final betrayal of the leave vote so there's nothing left to lose.
No the "only way out of it" is for our political class to do what they were told and leave the European Union.
Well, May has been trying to for over two years now. I'm sure it is possible via No Deal, but that would be disastrous and unpopular. If you think that it would be popular, then let's see via a new referendum.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Agreed. This is a part of the negotiation and the Commons has played its part.
I'm feeling sorry for her, she was given the mother of all hospital passes. Made some huge cock ups, but trying to do the best thing for all people, and pleasing no one.
Maybe Brexit really is un-deliverable, but the consquences of backing out and staying are just as grim.
ERG might as well get the letters in tonight and try to get rid of her.
Yeh, why not. It'll fail and then they can be ignored.
They are being ignored anyway... Theresa's now opened the door to second referendum which is the final betrayal of the leave vote so there's nothing left to lose.
Exactly. And it's a mess entirely of her own making.
May spent her formative years in Enstone church listening to her vicar father preach. I'm sure at least one sermon must have included the apocryphal prayer of St Francis of Assisi: "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony." But even if - by chance - she missed it at church, she must be aware of Thatcher quoting it outside 10 Downing Street in 1979.
She has done exactly the opposite of that. Given a narrow 52-48 result, she chose not healing, but division. Not harmony, but further discord. She adopted the language of "red lines". She, at Nick Timothy's bidding, boxed herself into hard Brexit. None of this was forced upon her. None.
All this is coming home to roost. She should have paid more attention during the sermon.
No the "only way out of it" is for our political class to do what they were told and leave the European Union.
Because in the real as opposed to rhetorical world it really is that easy. How do we resolve the Irish Border? "Leave" How do we maintain trade as an unprepared 3rd party? "Leave" How do we certify our goods, drivers, aircraft etc etc? "Leave"
I enjoyed being a toddler from what I remember. Glad you still are.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Agreed. This is a part of the negotiation and the Commons has played its part.
I'm feeling sorry for her, she was given the mother of all hospital passes. Made some huge cock ups, but trying to do the best thing for all people, and pleasing no one.
Maybe Brexit really is un-deliverable, but the consquences of backing out and staying are just as grim.
And yet, I don't want to rejoin either.... oh my.
The reality is that we need to take the deal on offer. She is desperately trying to improve that deal so it is (a) better for the country and (b) more likely to pass the HoC. Today has demonstrated to anyone watching what is needed for that and even then it is not a sure thing. One hopes that the EU were watching and appreciate how little room for maneuver she has.
What is clear from today is that she cannot take the deal on offer. It doesn't have support from anyone.
I see Charlie Elphicke’s still described as an Independent. Isn’t it time his position was sorted. It can’t be that serious or the police would be all over it.
Incidentally, anyone know how the first day of the Mackinlay case went?
50. In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.
How does a border in the Irish sea 'continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.'?
How does a vet carrying out a few random checks on a truck full of sheep fetter access to the U.K. single market?
Barnier told Foster that checks would go from 10% to 100%....
How would veterinary checks on all sheep fetter access to the U.K. single market?
So there is no support for whatever the government's position bar a half dozen backbenchers. Which doesn't matter as they don't have a deal to vote on anyway. MPs seem unlikely to just sit on their hands and not vote - which as I said seems to be the de facto the May strategy now.
"A second referendum isn't up to me" is brilliant - invites rebellious MPs (all of them...) to come up with their own ideas in the absence of a government plan. So a third referendum or a General Election really are in scope, as is a vote to compel HMG to NOT accept a No Deal scenario.
".. a vote to compel HMG to NOT accept a No Deal scenario." Interesting.
Exactly. And it's a mess entirely of her own making.
May spent her formative years in Enstone church listening to her vicar father preach. I'm sure at least one sermon must have included the apocryphal prayer of St Francis of Assisi: "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony." But even if - by chance - she missed it at church, she must be aware of Thatcher quoting it outside 10 Downing Street in 1979.
She has done exactly the opposite of that. Given a narrow 52-48 result, she chose not healing, but division. Not harmony, but further discord. She adopted the language of "red lines". She, at Nick Timothy's bidding, boxed herself into hard Brexit. None of this was forced upon her. None.
All this is coming home to roost. She should have paid more attention during the sermon.
by dropping the issue totally, setting up an UK Ireland working group and putting the thing to bed. The volume of inter Irish trade is less than the turnover of Nissan Sunderland its not a big volume of trade.
Ireland doesn't negotiate anything. The EU does the negotiating. CTA, hundreds of years of history there may be but Ireland can't just decide on a relationship with a soon-to-be Third Country.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Agreed. This is a part of the negotiation and the Commons has played its part.
I'm feeling sorry for her, she was given the mother of all hospital passes. Made some huge cock ups, but trying to do the best thing for all people, and pleasing no one.
Maybe Brexit really is un-deliverable, but the consquences of backing out and staying are just as grim.
And yet, I don't want to rejoin either.... oh my.
I think she was crippled from the start because she was an ex-Remainer (albeit of the very quiet and unconvincing type). She had to convince skeptics that she really would be aiming to deliver Leave and thus be more Leave-y than Leavers. She had to come up with those red lines.
"Only Nixon could go to China", and maybe only a Leaver could have compromised sufficiently to achieve a compromise Brexit to satisfy as many on both sides as possible.
(I don't think Boris would have done it. God help me, I'm starting to think maybe Michael Gove could have pulled it off, and if not him, then no-one.*)
*This means I need to go for a lie-down, because there is no question to which the answer is "The best PM choice was Michael Gove"...
50. In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.
How does a border in the Irish sea 'continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland's businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market.'?
How does a vet carrying out a few random checks on a truck full of sheep fetter access to the U.K. single market?
Barnier told Foster that checks would go from 10% to 100%....
How would veterinary checks on all sheep fetter access to the U.K. single market?
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Agreed. This is a part of the negotiation and the Commons has played its part.
I'm feeling sorry for her, she was given the mother of all hospital passes. Made some huge cock ups, but trying to do the best thing for all people, and pleasing no one.
Maybe Brexit really is un-deliverable, but the consquences of backing out and staying are just as grim.
And yet, I don't want to rejoin either.... oh my.
The reality is that we need to take the deal on offer. She is desperately trying to improve that deal so it is (a) better for the country and (b) more likely to pass the HoC. Today has demonstrated to anyone watching what is needed for that and even then it is not a sure thing. One hopes that the EU were watching and appreciate how little room for maneuver she has.
What is clear from today is that she cannot take the deal on offer. It doesn't have support from anyone.
As I keep pointing out - there doesn't exist a deal that will have the support of the HoC.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Agreed. This is a part of the negotiation and the Commons has played its part.
I'm feeling sorry for her, she was given the mother of all hospital passes. Made some huge cock ups, but trying to do the best thing for all people, and pleasing no one.
Maybe Brexit really is un-deliverable, but the consquences of backing out and staying are just as grim.
And yet, I don't want to rejoin either.... oh my.
The reality is that we need to take the deal on offer. She is desperately trying to improve that deal so it is (a) better for the country and (b) more likely to pass the HoC. Today has demonstrated to anyone watching what is needed for that and even then it is not a sure thing. One hopes that the EU were watching and appreciate how little room for maneuver she has.
What is clear from today is that she cannot take the deal on offer. It doesn't have support from anyone.
As I keep pointing out - there doesn't exist a deal that will have the support of the HoC.
This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin
Did you see that video from the Losers Vote crowd where all those multi-millionaire luvvies were telling the plebs that they'd got it wrong and should vote again... Oh and BTW they'd better get it right next time?
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Agreed. This is a part of the negotiation and the Commons has played its part.
I'm feeling sorry for her, she was given the mother of all hospital passes. Made some huge cock ups, but trying to do the best thing for all people, and pleasing no one.
Maybe Brexit really is un-deliverable, but the consquences of backing out and staying are just as grim.
And yet, I don't want to rejoin either.... oh my.
The reality is that we need to take the deal on offer. She is desperately trying to improve that deal so it is (a) better for the country and (b) more likely to pass the HoC. Today has demonstrated to anyone watching what is needed for that and even then it is not a sure thing. One hopes that the EU were watching and appreciate how little room for maneuver she has.
What is clear from today is that she cannot take the deal on offer. It doesn't have support from anyone.
As I keep pointing out - there doesn't exist a deal that will have the support of the HoC.
The Gordian Knot of Brexit. Both deals and no-deals don't have a majority at all.
Am I right in thinking that I have missed nothing of any interest?
Other than our political class making embarrassing fools of themselves. Again. No.
PS I hope you got a humungous bonus for your rain-making suggestion that McDonnell nationalise pensions. The amount of work that will create must have made your appraisers very happy indeed!
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Agreed. This is a part of the negotiation and the Commons has played its part.
I'm feeling sorry for her, she was given the mother of all hospital passes. Made some huge cock ups, but trying to do the best thing for all people, and pleasing no one.
Maybe Brexit really is un-deliverable, but the consquences of backing out and staying are just as grim.
And yet, I don't want to rejoin either.... oh my.
I think she was crippled from the start because she was an ex-Remainer (albeit of the very quiet and unconvincing type). She had to convince skeptics that she really would be aiming to deliver Leave and thus be more Leave-y than Leavers. She had to come up with those red lines.
"Only Nixon could go to China", and maybe only a Leaver could have compromised sufficiently to achieve a compromise Brexit to satisfy as many on both sides as possible.
(I don't think Boris would have done it. God help me, I'm starting to think maybe Michael Gove could have pulled it off, and if not him, then no-one.*)
*This means I need to go for a lie-down, because there is no question to which the answer is "The best PM choice was Michael Gove"...
Boris is good at U Turns. If he had been PM he wouldn't have needed to plot how to become PM anymore. It's just possible he may have given some thought as to what was best for the country. OK, maybe not.
Exactly. And it's a mess entirely of her own making.
May spent her formative years in Enstone church listening to her vicar father preach. I'm sure at least one sermon must have included the apocryphal prayer of St Francis of Assisi: "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony." But even if - by chance - she missed it at church, she must be aware of Thatcher quoting it outside 10 Downing Street in 1979.
She has done exactly the opposite of that. Given a narrow 52-48 result, she chose not healing, but division. Not harmony, but further discord. She adopted the language of "red lines". She, at Nick Timothy's bidding, boxed herself into hard Brexit. None of this was forced upon her. None.
All this is coming home to roost. She should have paid more attention during the sermon.
Really? You think Robbins is trying to deliver Hard Brexit?
The best part is, parliament can vote to stop "No deal" but there won't be time to pass anything to the EU before 29th March 2019, at which point we're out... without a deal xD
The more the Brexit saga drags on, the more obvious it becomes that our point of greatest leverage and ability to maximise the nation's best interests, was to go down the tried and tested "wrong outcome, so give us concessions" route in June 2016, rather than Cameron flouncing off and leaving a government and parliament trying to do something an overwhelming majority didn't want to do and believed was injurious the the national interest.
The Irish have done rather well out of that course. We might have won the substantive concessions Cameron failed to extract, and stayed in on better terms after a 2nd referendum, and carried on fighting for reform/ making a nuisance of ourselves from the inside.
Any would-be Conservative leader will almost certainly have to pound the drum of departure.
Becuase the situation within the Tory party wouldn't change with May no longer being there. If a strident leaver won the election, then the more 'pragmatic' tories would just take the place of what the ERG are doing now. Just as the ERG are pulling May towards a harder Brexit, a new grouping would pull a new leader to a softer one.
The numbers are such that each 'grouping' effectively hold a veto over whoever would be leader.
Northern Ireland’s Arlene Foster has rejected the notion that Europe’s proposal to settle the Irish border question opens up a “best of both worlds” solution after Brexit.
In Dublin for talks with Irish premier Leo Varadkar, the leader of Democratic Unionists said the only workable solution was one in which Northern Ireland left the EU on the exact same terms as the rest of the UK.
Mrs Foster’s has rejected an outline Brexit deal that would keep Northern Ireland within the EU’s regulatory sphere, saying any new checks on goods moving into the region from Britain would lead eventually to the UK breaking up.
This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin
That would be fine. A hard leave would then have a proper democratic mandate and the voters couldn't say they didn't know what they were voting for.
Sunlit uplands, £350million/week for the NHS, BMW will force EU to give us any easy Brexit, they need us more than we need them. It should work a second time, surely?
What is clear from today is that she cannot take the deal on offer. It doesn't have support from anyone.
As I keep pointing out - there doesn't exist a deal that will have the support of the HoC.
Thats been clear for a while - the change today is that the PM appears to have finally accepted that to be the case. Not that a deal will be offered which is acceptable to the Commission / Ireland (with its veto) as well as whatever pinhead HMG happen to be dancing on that day.
No deal is possible - at least not under this government. Does May continue to obsfucate and take us patriotically over the edge? Tell MPs if they want another referendum thats their decision? Tell MPs if they want another election thats their decision?
In office but not in power. Not the government - we no longer have one. Just the PM, preserved by MPs caught in the headlights. Surely one of three things will happen and quickly - Tory MPs trigger a leadership election, MPs vote for another referendum, or MPs vote for another election.
ZombieMay might have given up. I doubt she will be allowed to sit rotting in office much longer
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Agreed. This is a part of the negotiation and the Commons has played its part.
I'm feeling sorry for her, she was given the mother of all hospital passes. Made some huge cock ups, but trying to do the best thing for all people, and pleasing no one.
Maybe Brexit really is un-deliverable, but the consquences of backing out and staying are just as grim.
And yet, I don't want to rejoin either.... oh my.
The reality is that we need to take the deal on offer. She is desperately trying to improve that deal so it is (a) better for the country and (b) more likely to pass the HoC. Today has demonstrated to anyone watching what is needed for that and even then it is not a sure thing. One hopes that the EU were watching and appreciate how little room for maneuver she has.
What is clear from today is that she cannot take the deal on offer. It doesn't have support from anyone.
As I keep pointing out - there doesn't exist a deal that will have the support of the HoC.
If she can get a deal which eliminates the NI backstop, even if it replaces that with a UK wide backstop for a period, then I think she can get a majority. There are 318 Conservatives. I think a maximum of 5 of them would oppose such a deal, especially if it was made a matter of confidence. That gets them to 313. Add 10 DUPs and you have 323. With no SF that is enough, just, even without Labour rebels.
What is clear from today is that she cannot take the deal on offer. It doesn't have support from anyone.
As I keep pointing out - there doesn't exist a deal that will have the support of the HoC.
Thats been clear for a while - the change today is that the PM appears to have finally accepted that to be the case. Not that a deal will be offered which is acceptable to the Commission / Ireland (with its veto) as well as whatever pinhead HMG happen to be dancing on that day.
No deal is possible - at least not under this government. Does May continue to obsfucate and take us patriotically over the edge? Tell MPs if they want another referendum thats their decision? Tell MPs if they want another election thats their decision?
In office but not in power. Not the government - we no longer have one. Just the PM, preserved by MPs caught in the headlights. Surely one of three things will happen and quickly - Tory MPs trigger a leadership election, MPs vote for another referendum, or MPs vote for another election.
ZombieMay might have given up. I doubt she will be allowed to sit rotting in office much longer
Leavers have to be very careful here however. Topple May, and Brexit is I think, lost.
I am sure of it. Indeed if we have learned anything today TM has fired a huge warning shot to ERG over her coded message that a no deal will be handed to the House to decide
After today the chance of remain must have risen
It would be ironic if ERG lose there dream by pushing too hard
Doesn't look good for May. Tonight's news bulletins will not be good, judging by the stream of tweets from pol journalists saying this has exposed how little support she has anywhere in the Commons.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Or alternatively it encourages the different sides in parliament to be more cognisant of the stalemate. So far the argument that's been put most consistently by MPs has been about the need to go back to the people.
Well of course it is, they nearly all want to Remain!
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Agreed. This is a part of the negotiation and the Commons has played its part.
I'm feeling sorry for her, she was given the mother of all hospital passes. Made some huge cock ups, but trying to do the best thing for all people, and pleasing no one.
Maybe Brexit really is un-deliverable, but the consquences of backing out and staying are just as grim.
And yet, I don't want to rejoin either.... oh my.
The reality is that we need to take the deal on offer. She is desperately trying to improve that deal so it is (a) better for the country and (b) more likely to pass the HoC. Today has demonstrated to anyone watching what is needed for that and even then it is not a sure thing. One hopes that the EU were watching and appreciate how little room for maneuver she has.
What is clear from today is that she cannot take the deal on offer. It doesn't have support from anyone.
As I keep pointing out - there doesn't exist a deal that will have the support of the HoC.
If she can get a deal which eliminates the NI backstop, even if it replaces that with a UK wide backstop for a period, then I think she can get a majority. There are 318 Conservatives. I think a maximum of 5 of them would oppose such a deal, especially if it was made a matter of confidence. That gets them to 313. Add 10 DUPs and you have 323. With no SF that is enough, just, even without Labour rebels.
"If she can get a deal which eliminates the NI backstop, even if it replaces that with a UK wide backstop for a period," Can I stop you there?
Northern Ireland’s Arlene Foster has rejected the notion that Europe’s proposal to settle the Irish border question opens up a “best of both worlds” solution after Brexit.
In Dublin for talks with Irish premier Leo Varadkar, the leader of Democratic Unionists said the only workable solution was one in which Northern Ireland left the EU on the exact same terms as the rest of the UK.
Mrs Foster’s has rejected an outline Brexit deal that would keep Northern Ireland within the EU’s regulatory sphere, saying any new checks on goods moving into the region from Britain would lead eventually to the UK breaking up.
Of course it hasnt occurred to Arlene that if the EU is using NI as a hostage to keep the UK in SM and CU, then the chances of a UI are next to zero. The EU cant afford to let the hostage go.
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Agreed. This is a part of the negotiation and the Commons has played its part.
I'm feeling sorry for her, she was given the mother of all hospital passes. Made some huge cock ups, but trying to do the best thing for all people, and pleasing no one.
Maybe Brexit really is un-deliverable, but the consquences of backing out and staying are just as grim.
And yet, I don't want to rejoin either.... oh my.
The reality is that we need to take the deal on offer. She is desperately trying to improve that deal so it is (a) better for the country and (b) more likely to pass the HoC. Today has demonstrated to anyone watching what is needed for that and even then it is not a sure thing. One hopes that the EU were watching and appreciate how little room for maneuver she has.
What is clear from today is that she cannot take the deal on offer. It doesn't have support from anyone.
As I keep pointing out - there doesn't exist a deal that will have the support of the HoC.
If she can get a deal which eliminates the NI backstop, even if it replaces that with a UK wide backstop for a period, then I think she can get a majority. There are 318 Conservatives. I think a maximum of 5 of them would oppose such a deal, especially if it was made a matter of confidence. That gets them to 313. Add 10 DUPs and you have 323. With no SF that is enough, just, even without Labour rebels.
Yes. As noted above to @archer101au above, the key is in the EU compromising over their backstop. The whole of the UK in SM/CU or some variant thereof. What does the EU lose? The sanctity of their four freedoms, obvs, but they surely gain an awful lot of non-disruption and wailing and gnashing of teeth.
And of course that outcome would reflect what was agreed (!!!) at Ch*qu*rs.
The more the Brexit saga drags on, the more obvious it becomes that our point of greatest leverage and ability to maximise the nation's best interests, was to go down the tried and tested "wrong outcome, so give us concessions" route in June 2016, rather than Cameron flouncing off and leaving a government and parliament trying to do something an overwhelming majority didn't want to do and believed was injurious the the national interest.
The Irish have done rather well out of that course. We might have won the substantive concessions Cameron failed to extract, and stayed in on better terms after a 2nd referendum, and carried on fighting for reform/ making a nuisance of ourselves from the inside.
How it could all have been so different....
17.4m people did not vote for better terms, they voted to leave.
Labour need converts to win a majority but if Brexit is seen as too hard and enough Tories shift to the LDs or too soft and enough Tories shift to UKIP or stay at home Corbyn could still head a minority government with SNP and LD support even without any gains from the Tories
This statement may actually have been a smart move by Theresa May. By demonstrating publicly the pressures that she is under from all sides, those on the EU side will gain a renewed appreciation of her limited room for manoeuvre. If it encourages more flexibility from them, that would have been an effective use of time.
Agreed. This is a part of the negotiation and the Commons has played its part.
I'm feeling sorry for her, she was given the mother of all hospital passes. Made some huge cock ups, but trying to do the best thing for all people, and pleasing no one.
Maybe Brexit really is un-deliverable, but the consquences of backing out and staying are just as grim.
And yet, I don't want to rejoin either.... oh my.
The reality is that we need to take the deal on offer. She is desperately trying to improve that deal so it is (a) better for the country and (b) more likely to pass the HoC. Today has demonstrated to anyone watching what is needed for that and even then it is not a sure thing. One hopes that the EU were watching and appreciate how little room for maneuver she has.
What is clear from today is that she cannot take the deal on offer. It doesn't have support from anyone.
As I keep pointing out - there doesn't exist a deal that will have the support of the HoC.
If she can get a deal which eliminates the NI backstop, even if it replaces that with a UK wide backstop for a period, then I think she can get a majority. There are 318 Conservatives. I think a maximum of 5 of them would oppose such a deal, especially if it was made a matter of confidence. That gets them to 313. Add 10 DUPs and you have 323. With no SF that is enough, just, even without Labour rebels.
Yes. As noted above to @archer101au above, the key is in the EU compromising over their backstop. The whole of the UK in SM/CU or some variant thereof. What does the EU lose? The sanctity of their four freedoms, obvs, but they surely gain an awful lot of non-disruption and wailing and gnashing of teeth.
And of course that outcome would reflect what was agreed (!!!) at Ch*qu*rs.
Today was about showing that is the only option on the table. Its not a deal I will enthuse about but I hope her plan works.
Leavers have to be very careful here however. Topple May, and Brexit is I think, lost.
I am sure of it. Indeed if we have learned anything today TM has fired a huge warning shot to ERG over her coded message that a no deal will be handed to the House to decide
After today the chance of remain must have risen
It would be ironic if ERG lose there dream by pushing too hard
It'll be NO DEAL.
The ERG hold all the cards. They don't have the power to bring forward a deal that commands the backing of the Commons (or one the EU will support) but they do have the power to bounce legislation round the House through delaying tactics, meaning Article 50 runs out of time.
If the shit really starts to hit the fan it'll be interesting to see if Varadkar blinks. Ireland will disproportionately suffer from No Deal more than any other country.
The more the Brexit saga drags on, the more obvious it becomes that our point of greatest leverage and ability to maximise the nation's best interests, was to go down the tried and tested "wrong outcome, so give us concessions" route in June 2016, rather than Cameron flouncing off and leaving a government and parliament trying to do something an overwhelming majority didn't want to do and believed was injurious the the national interest.
The Irish have done rather well out of that course. We might have won the substantive concessions Cameron failed to extract, and stayed in on better terms after a 2nd referendum, and carried on fighting for reform/ making a nuisance of ourselves from the inside.
How it could all have been so different....
17.4m people did not vote for better terms, they voted to leave.
"better terms" did not have a candidate on the ballot paper
Doesn't look good for May. Tonight's news bulletins will not be good, judging by the stream of tweets from pol journalists saying this has exposed how little support she has anywhere in the Commons.
But would anyone else
That's the point. Maybe she should propose a free vote of all MPs in all parties, let them all put forward suggestions and vote on them a la Labour Party conference motions.
The more the Brexit saga drags on, the more obvious it becomes that our point of greatest leverage and ability to maximise the nation's best interests, was to go down the tried and tested "wrong outcome, so give us concessions" route in June 2016, rather than Cameron flouncing off and leaving a government and parliament trying to do something an overwhelming majority didn't want to do and believed was injurious the the national interest.
The Irish have done rather well out of that course. We might have won the substantive concessions Cameron failed to extract, and stayed in on better terms after a 2nd referendum, and carried on fighting for reform/ making a nuisance of ourselves from the inside.
How it could all have been so different....
17.4m people did not vote for better terms, they voted to leave.
"better terms" did not have a candidate on the ballot paper
I think it did. The better terms the EU was willing to offer was Cameron's deal and 16.1m voted for it. For the majority it was not enough.
Leavers have to be very careful here however. Topple May, and Brexit is I think, lost.
I am sure of it. Indeed if we have learned anything today TM has fired a huge warning shot to ERG over her coded message that a no deal will be handed to the House to decide
After today the chance of remain must have risen
It would be ironic if ERG lose there dream by pushing too hard
Ironic in the sense of a direct result of them not having a realistic analysis let alone an actual plan? They deserve the contempt of both remainers and leavers. I think the adjective we need here is pathetic rather than ironic.
The problem, as far as the DUP is concerned, is that the whole thing stems from the Treaty of Rome. Therefore an extreme negative view is the default position.
The other problem is that Northern Ireland benefits from both being in a close trading arrangement with the Republic, and being a part of the UK. (From whence it gets big public sector contracts and £11bn a year.)
It's hard to see how Northern Ireland benefits economically from Brexit, even if the rest of the UK does very well. And it does particularly poorly out of No Deal Brexit. (Albeit the Republic probably does even worse.)
Running with the idea that economic benefit is what matters is what led Remain astray in the first place.
But I'm not talking about the referendum. I'm talking about what happens in Northern Ireland if there is a nasty post Brexit recession.
It's very easy to talk about the importance of being British when you have a secure job. Being British is not so important if you're newly unemployed.
Of course, Northern Ireland is a small place. The UK can increase subsidies there to help them deal with the potential loss of cross border trade. But there will be losers. And some of them will be sore.
You didn't mention recession. You were talking about a changed trading relationship. Anyway how does the recession come about? Insufficient domestic spending? The £300m per week we don't flush into Brussels might help a bit there. And there's nothing to stop the BoE setting the interest rate appropriately for the domestic economy to offset deficient demand if we went all anaemic because of Brexit.
My point is that Northern Ireland will be the most negatively impacted part of the UK by No Deal. I don't think that is particularly controversial as far as claims go.
I also find your comment about interest rates a little bizarre. The UK's household final consumption is already among the highest in the developed world. The structural issues with the UK economy will not be solved by adding more debt.
Would anyone really want to be PM with parliament as divided on the issue as it is now?
Well, you wouldn't be bored. And it must be more interesting than wondering how the next £1bn is going to get pissed up the wall by bureaucrats in the NHS.
This is what I'm hoping for. The real fun begins when we have second referendum and Leave wins by a bigger margin
It won't if No Deal, it will lose
If we reach No Deal there'll be no second referendum. There'll be a new election with Corbyn elected as PM. He's more anti-EU than Redwood.
If Corbyn becomes PM he will only be able to have a majority with SNP, LD and Labour Remainer MPs support, they will all demand the UK stays in the Single Market and the Customs Union if he wants to stay PM and get any legislation through
Comments
One sinner repents...
Maybe Brexit really is un-deliverable, but the consquences of backing out and staying are just as grim.
And yet, I don't want to rejoin either.... oh my.
Like Didius Julianus, she may be regretting her ascension.
I may profoundly disagree with her policies and approach, but hard not to admire her fortitude and dogged sense of duty.
by dropping the issue totally, setting up an UK Ireland working group and putting the thing to bed. The volume of inter Irish trade is less than the turnover of Nissan Sunderland its not a big volume of trade.
In fact a lot of people will be like me and will not only sit on their hands but will walk to the polling booth and vote for Corbyn just to get the Tories out.
"A second referendum isn't up to me" is brilliant - invites rebellious MPs (all of them...) to come up with their own ideas in the absence of a government plan. So a third referendum or a General Election really are in scope, as is a vote to compel HMG to NOT accept a No Deal scenario.
I'm sure it is possible via No Deal, but that would be disastrous and unpopular.
If you think that it would be popular, then let's see via a new referendum.
May spent her formative years in Enstone church listening to her vicar father preach. I'm sure at least one sermon must have included the apocryphal prayer of St Francis of Assisi: "Where there is discord, may we bring harmony." But even if - by chance - she missed it at church, she must be aware of Thatcher quoting it outside 10 Downing Street in 1979.
She has done exactly the opposite of that. Given a narrow 52-48 result, she chose not healing, but division. Not harmony, but further discord. She adopted the language of "red lines". She, at Nick Timothy's bidding, boxed herself into hard Brexit. None of this was forced upon her. None.
All this is coming home to roost. She should have paid more attention during the sermon.
How do we resolve the Irish Border? "Leave"
How do we maintain trade as an unprepared 3rd party? "Leave"
How do we certify our goods, drivers, aircraft etc etc? "Leave"
I enjoyed being a toddler from what I remember. Glad you still are.
Incidentally, anyone know how the first day of the Mackinlay case went?
Interesting.
(or sister)
Indeed. That's why I'm unhappy with either option.
I do have some sympathy for May. Putting up with Boris' dickishness would be irksome.
"Only Nixon could go to China", and maybe only a Leaver could have compromised sufficiently to achieve a compromise Brexit to satisfy as many on both sides as possible.
(I don't think Boris would have done it. God help me, I'm starting to think maybe Michael Gove could have pulled it off, and if not him, then no-one.*)
*This means I need to go for a lie-down, because there is no question to which the answer is "The best PM choice was Michael Gove"...
If I was a betting person I may have a few pounds on it
Any would-be Conservative leader will almost certainly have to pound the drum of departure.
Too late!
If he had been PM he wouldn't have needed to plot how to become PM anymore. It's just possible he may have given some thought as to what was best for the country.
OK, maybe not.
Well that's a niche view...
The Irish have done rather well out of that course. We might have won the substantive concessions Cameron failed to extract, and stayed in on better terms after a 2nd referendum, and carried on fighting for reform/ making a nuisance of ourselves from the inside.
How it could all have been so different....
The numbers are such that each 'grouping' effectively hold a veto over whoever would be leader.
In Dublin for talks with Irish premier Leo Varadkar, the leader of Democratic Unionists said the only workable solution was one in which Northern Ireland left the EU on the exact same terms as the rest of the UK.
Mrs Foster’s has rejected an outline Brexit deal that would keep Northern Ireland within the EU’s regulatory sphere, saying any new checks on goods moving into the region from Britain would lead eventually to the UK breaking up.
https://www.ft.com/content/fadfb212-d091-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5
It should work a second time, surely?
No deal is possible - at least not under this government. Does May continue to obsfucate and take us patriotically over the edge? Tell MPs if they want another referendum thats their decision? Tell MPs if they want another election thats their decision?
In office but not in power. Not the government - we no longer have one. Just the PM, preserved by MPs caught in the headlights. Surely one of three things will happen and quickly - Tory MPs trigger a leadership election, MPs vote for another referendum, or MPs vote for another election.
ZombieMay might have given up. I doubt she will be allowed to sit rotting in office much longer
After today the chance of remain must have risen
It would be ironic if ERG lose there dream by pushing too hard
Can I stop you there?
And of course that outcome would reflect what was agreed (!!!) at Ch*qu*rs.
The ERG hold all the cards. They don't have the power to bring forward a deal that commands the backing of the Commons (or one the EU will support) but they do have the power to bounce legislation round the House through delaying tactics, meaning Article 50 runs out of time.
If the shit really starts to hit the fan it'll be interesting to see if Varadkar blinks. Ireland will disproportionately suffer from No Deal more than any other country.
Maybe she should propose a free vote of all MPs in all parties, let them all put forward suggestions and vote on them a la Labour Party conference motions.
I also find your comment about interest rates a little bizarre. The UK's household final consumption is already among the highest in the developed world. The structural issues with the UK economy will not be solved by adding more debt.
The lesson that should have been drawn from the referendum is there is no majority for Brexit. There was a very slim majority against the status quo
In this case, if you’re mad enough to want to be PM now, you really shouldn’t be let near office.