"Should the UK or part of the UK permanently or temporarily remain in the customs union, then they will be treated in an equal fashion with regards to all their rights and obligations, the same as any other member of the customs union, which is an important instrument of trade and economic policy."
Well this is a surprise. If we execute the backstop, we will have to pay the EU huge sums of money for the privilege. Who would have thought it?
An excellent idea. Give it a month and could all be sorted.
We don't talk about the minutiae, but that's where the trouble is.
Nobody is talking about the complex tax issues caused by No Deal, and the fact that if we leave without a Withdrawal agreement then we drop out of EU regulations concerning withholding and double taxation. And once we do that, we're not going to be talking to the EU about it, we're going to have to negotiate with 28 members states. My former business, which had subsidiaries in Estonia, Latvia, Denmark and Italy, would be absolutely hammered by this.
Nor are they talking about the consequences of dropping out of the existing EU trade agreements, including (yes) with the US. I hold by my original contention that the consequences for non-EU trade would be more severe than for EU trade of a No Deal exit. It doesn't help that the current US government is seeking to screw us on Open Skies/Airlines, and now looks like they're blocking us from a key part of WTO rules on government procurement.
I'm interested you raise taxation, our perception is that Brexit wouldn't change that much. EU-DOTAS will clearly be different, but most double tax treaties are bilateral (even BEPS doesn't require us to be part of the EU).
Corporate tax is (for now at least) a national competence in the EU. 2003/123/EC and 90/435/EEC cover double taxation and withholding taxes between parents and subsidiaries where both are in EU/EEA states. While there are bilateral agreements with older EU members, newer ones have mostly just relied on implementing the EU directives. Our accountants - perhaps because of the complexity of our structure - were having kittens about the effect of withholding taxes in a No Deal world.
Right, I was thinking about our relationship with the rest of the world.
I think the consequence there is that most US and Asian firms have used UK businesses as the holding entity for all their European subsidiaries. So, Goldman Sachs Inc. owns Goldman Sachs International (Ltd) in London, which owns the various national entities. (The exception is Goldman Sachs Bank AG in Zurich, which is directly owned by the US.) If we drop out of the agreements re withholding taxes, it become much harder to shuffle money around consequence free between corporate entities.
Of course, Goldman (and Morgan Stanley, etc.) can solve this problem by a rejgging of their European entities. (And I'm sure they're doing that now.) However, the longer term issue is that if the UK is no longer the de facto place to put European holding companies, then it probably ceases being the place for European HQs.
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
We differ. The DUP and ERG are a minority by some distance
And I do not need saving by the way, the grown ups in the HOC will ensure there is no deal and if pushed maybe no brexit
I agree with the comments about the UK not focusing enough on the detail before and during the Brexit process (until now / it was too late). It has been typically, and almost laughably, saloon bar in its depth - on both sides - although that intrinsically favours remain in terms of looking marginally less stupid, as it's easier to just focus on the status quo (although, of course, Boris couldn't even work out if he was for or anti leaving until five minutes beforehand.....)
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
"DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start"
So why on earth did he not resign 'right at the start'??
As he has explained, he thought it would be better to stay in the Cabinet and fight the corner of the Leavers and try and stop a total sellout. Quite a reasonable position. When it became obvious that he could not influence matters any more, he resigned.
Honourable guy. Can't imagine him trying to tell the UK public that there is a difference between 'temporary' and 'time limited'.
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
And so the silliness continues. May wouldn't propose this if she didn't think it was the best option, and if Cabinet Members disagree they should resign right now, since they are in a place of fundamental disagreement. It's not even about whether a plan can get through the Commons, since neither plan can it seems (not without the government collapsing as the DUP stop backing it), so May is even proposing something they cannot accept clearly she is the wrong person for the job. Stop being so pathetic.
Maybe Arlene Foster could lead the Conservative and Unionist party MPs in the Commons and give it some backbone.
TBH the obvious thing to do is for the DUP to stand candidates in GB. They might even get Farage on board with that. They are pro-Brexit Unionists. They have great recognition. They would become the new UKIP overnight.
Oh yes please! Bring it on!
They'd be well and truly trashed and take the Tories down with them.
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco.The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
Two very different accounts of events. There is no doubt that Davis was sidelined by May, but the question is when? I read the FT piece this morning on Olly Robbins, which claimed that the Brexiteers had been given the opportunity to present their view of what Brexit they wanted but were unable to do so leaving Robbins with no option other than to plough the furrow as he saw fit.
Now given the FT's obvious bias (and this is a bit of a puff piece) I wouldn't necessarily take that at face value but if true Robbins can hardly be blamed and the Brexiteers only have themselves to blame.
What I would say is that in this age of leaks, I am very surprised that neither Robbins' side (that he had asked for the Brexiteers' view of what it should look like) nor Davis's side (that he was being sideljned and disagreed with May) seemed to appear in the press at the time, only long after the event, making me doubt both accounts.
In terms of where to go from here I remember saying after Chequers that the proposal in its current form was sufficient to carry through Parliament and more importantly get the grudging acceptance of most of the electorate. However, if further concessions were needed the government was in serious trouble. Now this has (predictably) come to pass I see no reason to revisit my original opinion.
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
"DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start"
So why on earth did he not resign 'right at the start'??
As he has explained, he thought it would be better to stay in the Cabinet and fight the corner of the Leavers and try and stop a total sellout. Quite a reasonable position. When it became obvious that he could not influence matters any more, he resigned.
Honourable guy. Can't imagine him trying to tell the UK public that there is a difference between 'temporary' and 'time limited'.
Are you sure that's what he says about his reasons for staying/leaving the Cabinet rather than staying in/leaving the EU?
Maybe Arlene Foster could lead the Conservative and Unionist party MPs in the Commons and give it some backbone.
TBH the obvious thing to do is for the DUP to stand candidates in GB. They might even get Farage on board with that. They are pro-Brexit Unionists. They have great recognition. They would become the new UKIP overnight.
Oh yes please! Bring it on!
They'd be well and truly trashed and take the Tories down with them.
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
We differ. The DUP and ERG are a minority by some distance
And I do not need saving by the way, the grown ups in the HOC will ensure there is no deal and if pushed maybe no brexit
There are no grown ups in the HoC. There is next to no talent any more, as 'real' people have been replaced by party hacks or ex-lawyers. I remember reading Denis Healey's autobio and although I disagreed with everything he did, you cannot dispute his vast intellect. That was true of all the main players back then. Now the HoC is full of pygmies. The quality of the party leaders is reflective I think of the talent pool.
The HoC were completely unable to represent the nation in respect of Brexit. So they dumped the question on the public, promised to accept the result and then sulked when it didn't go the way they wanted and spent the rest of the time trying to undermine the decision. If they do try to reverse Brexit, it will be nothing to do with being 'grown up' and much more about their total failure to accept the consequences of their own actions. Luckily, they are all so self-interested I don't think we have to worry that they will engage in co-ordinated action.
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
Two very different accounts of events. There is no doubt that Davis was sidelined by May, but the question is when? I read the FT piece this morning on Olly Robbins, which claimed that the Brexiteers had been given the opportunity to present their view of what Brexit they wanted but were unable to do so leaving Robbins with no option other than to plough the furrow as he saw fit.
Now given the FT's obvious bias (and this is a bit of a puff piece) I wouldn't necessarily take that at face value but if true Robbins can hardly be blamed and the Brexiteers only have themselves to blame.
What I would say is that in this age of leaks, I am very surprised that neither Robbins' side (that he had asked for the Brexiteers' view of what it should look like) nor Davis's side (that he was being sideljned and disagreed with May) seemed to appear in the press at the time, only long after the event, making me doubt both accounts.
In terms of where to go from here I remember saying after Chequers that the proposal in its current form was sufficient to carry through Parliament and more importantly get the grudging acceptance of most of the electorate. However, if further concessions were needed the government was in serious trouble. Now this has (predictably) come to pass I see no reason to revisit my original opinion.
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
If May's deal does not go through, she will resign and a Leaver will become Tory leader and PM.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
His analyses of the evolution of Euroscepticism in Parliament, the EU’s negotiating stance, and the state of global trade today are spot on.
However, the minimal part of the speech dedicated to immigration, and the failure to acknowledge objections not grounded in macro or microeconomics, mean that he is a big part of why we voted to leave.
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
"DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start"
So why on earth did he not resign 'right at the start'??
As he has explained, he thought it would be better to stay in the Cabinet and fight the corner of the Leavers and try and stop a total sellout. Quite a reasonable position. When it became obvious that he could not influence matters any more, he resigned.
Honourable guy. Can't imagine him trying to tell the UK public that there is a difference between 'temporary' and 'time limited'.
When income tax was introduced it was temporary.
Of course it may be but it's just too soon to tell.
His analyses of the evolution of Euroscepticism in Parliament, the EU’s negotiating stance, and the state of global trade today are spot on.
However, the minimal part of the speech dedicated to immigration, and the failure to acknowledge objections not grounded in macro or microeconomics, mean that he is a big part of why we voted to leave.
Go back and read the immigration bit again. All of it.
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
If May's deal does not go through, she will resign and a Leaver will become Tory leader and PM.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
As he has explained, he thought it would be better to stay in the Cabinet and fight the corner of the Leavers and try and stop a total sellout. Quite a reasonable position. When it became obvious that he could not influence matters any more, he resigned.
Honourable guy. Can't imagine him trying to tell the UK public that there is a difference between 'temporary' and 'time limited'.
When income tax was introduced it was temporary.
Of course it may be but it's just too soon to tell.
My favourite ever tax was the one William Pitt the Younger tried to introduce on female servants.
The satirists' responses were along the lines of 'this tax won't affect him, he's certainly never had any maids...'
That's very interesting and correlates well (a) regional GDP analysis, and (b) with the polling in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota - two of which he won in 2016. Basically, the Great Lakes/ Rust Belt is not currently seeing the benefit of the Trump budget boom, and aren't that enthused with him.
Trump needs to hold onto those states to win in 2020, and he needs the economic expansion to worm its magic there.
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
If May's deal does not go through, she will resign and a Leaver will become Tory leader and PM.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
If May's deal does not go through, she will resign and a Leaver will become Tory leader and PM.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
And how do you think that could happen
Tory MPs will realise that if May resigns over Brexit, the only outcome of a full membership ballot will be a Leaver winning. They may choose to go through the process, probably a truncated version, or they may just accept the inevitable and agree to put up a credible Leaver who is not Boris. Right now, if I had any money at play it would be on Raab.
His analyses of the evolution of Euroscepticism in Parliament, the EU’s negotiating stance, and the state of global trade today are spot on.
However, the minimal part of the speech dedicated to immigration, and the failure to acknowledge objections not grounded in macro or microeconomics, mean that he is a big part of why we voted to leave.
Go back and read the immigration bit again. All of it.
And so the silliness continues. May wouldn't propose this if she didn't think it was the best option, and if Cabinet Members disagree they should resign right now, since they are in a place of fundamental disagreement. It's not even about whether a plan can get through the Commons, since neither plan can it seems (not without the government collapsing as the DUP stop backing it), so May is even proposing something they cannot accept clearly she is the wrong person for the job. Stop being so pathetic.
To be fair Theresa May hasn't presented her plan to the Cabinet yet, so... At this point there is still no formal proposal for them to resign over.
They are hoping May will change her mind over the weekend.
Obviously if May's plan isn't changed when she presents it to Cabinet on Monday but they still don't resign they will look silly.
"If last year’s general election proved anything, it was that the Conservative path to a real Commons majority runs through seats where in-work poverty really matters."
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
Sounds like a plan.
I think you are taking SBP and LD support for Corbyn for granted.
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
If May's deal does not go through, she will resign and a Leaver will become Tory leader and PM.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
And how do you think that could happen
Tory MPs will realise that if May resigns over Brexit, the only outcome of a full membership ballot will be a Leaver winning. They may choose to go through the process, probably a truncated version, or they may just accept the inevitable and agree to put up a credible Leaver who is not Boris. Right now, if I had any money at play it would be on Raab.
And no, of course I am not a Tory member.
Your comments have a degree of wanting your solution without realising that the conservative mps are very much against the ERG. The mps hopefully will submit two unity candidates from either Javid, Hunt or one of the rising stars
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
If May's deal does not go through, she will resign and a Leaver will become Tory leader and PM.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
And how do you think that could happen
Tory MPs will realise that if May resigns over Brexit, the only outcome of a full membership ballot will be a Leaver winning. They may choose to go through the process, probably a truncated version, or they may just accept the inevitable and agree to put up a credible Leaver who is not Boris. Right now, if I had any money at play it would be on Raab.
And no, of course I am not a Tory member.
Strikes me as a huge risk to put someone who has been in Cabinet about five minutes into the PM's role.
Wait what's happening now? This morning people were saying her position was already that it would be time limited
Seems to be becoming a war about semantics.
What semantic point specifically?
Not sure I am fully following the plot now, it has become so complicated and endless briefings against by all sides. Happy to be corrected by someone who has followed every twist today. But, seems a lot of the argument is over a potentially indefinite "time limited" arrangement or a "permanent" one.
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
If May's deal does not go through, she will resign and a Leaver will become Tory leader and PM.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
And how do you think that could happen
And do you have a members vote
I’m pretty sure, based on our membership, that a Remainer doesn’t have a chance in any ballot.
Unless Boris is on it; then all bets are off.
However. I don’t think there would be a members vote if there is a change of leader.
Any of these three could happen:
- Coronation - maybe 25% likelihood. Probably Davis - MPs vote, then the loser of the final two withdraws, as in 2016 - maybe 60% likelihood - Emergency change of leadership rules by Party Board - maybe 15% likelihood
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
Sounds like a plan.
I think you are taking SBP and LD support for Corbyn for granted.
It's clearly not something that can be guaranteed 100%, but if it means the Tories out of power?
If May's deal does not go through, she will resign and a Leaver will become Tory leader and PM.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
And how do you think that could happen
Tory MPs will realise that if May resigns over Brexit, the only outcome of a full membership ballot will be a Leaver winning. They may choose to go through the process, probably a truncated version, or they may just accept the inevitable and agree to put up a credible Leaver who is not Boris. Right now, if I had any money at play it would be on Raab.
And no, of course I am not a Tory member.
Your comments have a degree of wanting your solution without realising that the conservative mps are very much against the ERG. The mps hopefully will submit two unity candidates from either Javid, Hunt or one of the rising stars
Raab needs time to make his case
I think 150 Tory MPs voted leave. Two-thirds represent constituencies that voted leave. 80% of Tory members support leave.
I think the idea that Tory MPs will manage to put up two Remain candidates just to block the leavers is optimistic at best. There are more than enough MPs who will back a Leave candidate. There is no chance in my judgement that Hunt or Javid could beat a leaver in a membership ballot called because May resigns over Brexit. If they want the crown it would have to be after Brexit was delivered.
Raab is well placed as long as he does not concede over the backstop. His contribution today was encouraging and well judged. He is at least as credible as Hunt or Javid.
My guess is that the Remainers will back DD as the compromise candidate because it will give them a chance to come back later, as DD won't stay for long. But I still think Raab could get the win IF he stands firm now.
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
If May's deal does not go through, she will resign and a Leaver will become Tory leader and PM.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
If May's deal does not go through, the government will resign.
I love the way George Osborne is blamed for everything inc UC.
He did take 3 billion out of UC and IDS resigned over it
I guess you have never had to deal with govt over uc. It was shambolic before and will be a shambles after ...irrespective of funding. It was delayrd because it was a shambles.. you cant blame GO for that.
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
If May's deal does not go through, she will resign and a Leaver will become Tory leader and PM.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
And how do you think that could happen
Tory MPs will realise that if May resigns over Brexit, the only outcome of a full membership ballot will be a Leaver winning. They may choose to go through the process, probably a truncated version, or they may just accept the inevitable and agree to put up a credible Leaver who is not Boris. Right now, if I had any money at play it would be on Raab.
And no, of course I am not a Tory member.
Strikes me as a huge risk to put someone who has been in Cabinet about five minutes into the PM's role.
I am struggling to think of the last time somebody who was not and had never been a senior cabinet minister or Leader of the Opposition was made PM.
I think you have to go back to Wellington in 1828.
Wait what's happening now? This morning people were saying her position was already that it would be time limited
Seems to be becoming a war about semantics.
What semantic point specifically?
Not sure I am fully following the plot now, it has become so complicated and endless briefings against by all sides. Happy to be corrected by someone who has followed every twist today. But, seems a lot of the argument is over a potentially indefinite "time limited" arrangement or a "permanent" one.
No, the difference is between a 'temporary' backstop and a 'time limited' backstop.
May wants to claim the backstop is temporary because it is 'intended' to end, but it will have no specific end date or method of termination. 'Time limited' means it will end after a certain period of time.
Strangely enough, nobody is falling for May's latest attempt to redefine the English language.
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
If May's deal does not go through, she will resign and a Leaver will become Tory leader and PM.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
If May's deal does not go through, the government will resign.
The Government cannot resign (in the sense of causing a GE). Only the PM can resign. Then another MP can attempt to form a Government.
I think it is a mistake to think that even a majority of the ERG favour No Deal Brexit. They might prefer Canada Plus, but they also mostly believe a disorganised No Deal Brexit would cause economic issues that they would would be blamed for.
I love the way George Osborne is blamed for everything inc UC.
iirc Osborne tried to get Cameron to stop the whole thing and sack IDS before it was too late.
Then he opted to bugger what little chance it had of working out by lopping several billion out of the scheme.
Osborne goes up in my estimation as he tried to block Cameron offering a referendum on leaving the EU before the 2015 election. Two strategic decisions Osborne got right and Cameron got wrong.
I think it is a mistake to think that even a majority of the ERG favour No Deal Brexit. They might prefer Canada Plus, but they also mostly believe a disorganised No Deal Brexit would cause economic issues that they would would be blamed for.
Maybe, so they might accept a crap-ish deal, but they won't accept a backstop that cannot be ended by the UK. There were 80 ERG MPs who were not happy with Chequers (they were prepared to back amendments) but maybe you can argue that many would have fallen into line for that deal since if accepted it would have removed the need for a backstop. But Chequers is dead. The backstop means that Brexit will probably never happen. May is not going to give them any choice but to vote it down.
Ultimately TM handed the negotiations to David Davis, Boris and Liam Fox and they all turned out to be utterly useless in fighting their cause and Boris only resigned because he had no choice when David Davis resigned first
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
If May's deal does not go through, she will resign and a Leaver will become Tory leader and PM.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
If May's deal does not go through, the government will resign.
I very much doubt it. Indeed how do you think it would happen
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
If May's deal does not go through, she will resign and a Leaver will become Tory leader and PM.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
If May's deal does not go through, the government will resign.
The Government cannot resign (in the sense of causing a GE). Only the PM can resign. Then another MP can attempt to form a Government.
I just don't see Mrs May resigning. She might propose a second referendum to resolve the impasse. There might be a VNOC in Mrs May by Tory MPs to force her to resign which may or may not be successful. There may be a VNOC in Mrs May's Goverment by all MPs which I think would be successful, followed by a temporary (or time-limited) "Government of National Unity".
I just don't see Mrs May meekly folding her tent and departing of her own volition.
I think it is a mistake to think that even a majority of the ERG favour No Deal Brexit. They might prefer Canada Plus, but they also mostly believe a disorganised No Deal Brexit would cause economic issues that they would would be blamed for.
Maybe, so they might accept a crap-ish deal, but they won't accept a backstop that cannot be ended by the UK. There were 80 ERG MPs who were not happy with Chequers (they were prepared to back amendments) but maybe you can argue that many would have fallen into line for that deal since if accepted it would have removed the need for a backstop. But Chequers is dead. The backstop means that Brexit will probably never happen. May is not going to give them any choice but to vote it down.
Are there any treaties in existence that cannot be canceled?
I love the way George Osborne is blamed for everything inc UC.
iirc Osborne tried to get Cameron to stop the whole thing and sack IDS before it was too late.
Then he opted to bugger what little chance it had of working out by lopping several billion out of the scheme.
Osborne goes up in my estimation as he tried to block Cameron offering a referendum on leaving the EU before the 2015 election. Two strategic decisions Osborne got right and Cameron got wrong.
Pffft. Osborne killed UC because he hated IDS - not like he had a better idea. And he contributed greatly to a Leave win with his ridiculous Punishment Budget stunt. Being smarter than Cameron is not exactly a recommendation.
I love the way George Osborne is blamed for everything inc UC.
He did take 3 billion out of UC and IDS resigned over it
I guess you have never had to deal with govt over uc. It was shambolic before and will be a shambles after ...irrespective of funding. It was delayrd because it was a shambles.. you cant blame GO for that.
My daughter does as she works in the DWP
GO took the 3 billion that is causing the shortfall now
I have no doubt it needs reforming, indeed conservative mps are demanding reform
I think it is a mistake to think that even a majority of the ERG favour No Deal Brexit. They might prefer Canada Plus, but they also mostly believe a disorganised No Deal Brexit would cause economic issues that they would would be blamed for.
Maybe, so they might accept a crap-ish deal, but they won't accept a backstop that cannot be ended by the UK. There were 80 ERG MPs who were not happy with Chequers (they were prepared to back amendments) but maybe you can argue that many would have fallen into line for that deal since if accepted it would have removed the need for a backstop. But Chequers is dead. The backstop means that Brexit will probably never happen. May is not going to give them any choice but to vote it down.
Are there any treaties in existence that cannot be canceled?
Raised earlier. Under the Vienna Convention you cannot cancel a treaty unilaterally if the treaty does not allow it. Some debate as to whether the convention would cover the WA as the EU is not a party to the convention in its own right although the UK is.
I just don't see Mrs May resigning. She might propose a second referendum to resolve the impasse. There might be a VNOC in Mrs May by Tory MPs to force her to resign which may or may not be successful. There may be a VNOC in Mrs May's Goverment by all MPs which I think would be successful, followed by a temporary (or time-limited) "Government of National Unity".
I just don't see Mrs May meekly folding her tent and departing of her own volition.
I don't see her resigning either, but I think a government of national unity is a non-starter - not enough MPs are willing to consider crossing lines to get something agreed (only to cross lines to make sure something does not get through), so I fail to see why there would then be enough willing to be grown up enough to work together in such a government when they couldn't work together before.
I think May stays until her own party grow some balls and stop asking her to change her mind and instead tell her they no longer want her to make the choices. Until they do, she will make such choices as she feels necessary.
I do think a second referendum is possible as an impasse breaker as you suggest, not least because it is possible to sell it to both sides to some degree and avoids an election which, if they are smart, the Tories will want to avoid.
May's deal in its Chequers form was seriously unpalatable. It looks like the final version is going to be even worse. I can understand why the sidelined leavers in the cabinet are unhappy. Who could have believed that things could have been handled as ineptly as they have been in the last 18 months (well, apart from anyone paying any attention)?
Unhappy though I am I just don't see an alternative to going through with this. Bringing May down now throws the whole process into complete chaos and would damage the country. Like Labour back benches, Tory leavers have learned the harsh lesson that failing to act is also a decision with consequences.
Given where we are I think we have no choice but to swallow her shit. What we need to do is ensure, so far as possible, that her pathetic efforts will not be binding on future governments so we can sort this out once she has gone.
I think that is the view of the majority of the Conservative parliamentary party, and even of a large chunk of the ERG.
I never claimed to be an original thinker, Robert.
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
As if people were not saying that we need to cancel it from the start.
What we need is to get through to transition, then GE when each party can confirm what they will actually then do - diverge/no diverge - rather than, as at present, the Tories have no clue what they will offer, and Labour are deliberately suggesting everything is possible.
I love the way George Osborne is blamed for everything inc UC.
He did take 3 billion out of UC and IDS resigned over it
I guess you have never had to deal with govt over uc. It was shambolic before and will be a shambles after ...irrespective of funding. It was delayrd because it was a shambles.. you cant blame GO for that.
UC is ideologically driven.
People like IDS are obsessed by benefits. They simply do not understand that some people cannot work, that making people move from a weekly to a monthly budget does not take into consideration people who cannot budget or strategically plan ahead. In the same vein changing housing benefits direct from landlord to renter is complicating things for individuals who find finances hard to manage, Many people who are being shunted from existing benefits to UC are defined as being vulnerable and unable to plan yet the government are insistent on implementing this failing scheme despite the evidence that shows it does not work.
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
Brexit = a calamity is a fair view for many
Your other comment is just inflamatory to many and does not add to the debate
So the biggest act of self harm by a nation continues ! And not a single poll in 18 months has shown a majority who still think Brexit is a good idea . And yet the spivs and liars continue to parade around as if the country voted 80/20 to leave.
Barring a few saner voices the cabinet is full of delusional PM wannabes. These are dark times for the UK.
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
Brexit = a calamity is a fair view for many
Your other comment is just inflamatory to many and does not add to the debate
I salute your optimism, it is years since most of us gave up any hope of this poster adding anything to any debate.
Sorry but this is re-writing history. Firstly, Fox and Johnson had nothing to do with the negotiations at all. Secondly, DD has been clear that he was constantly over-ruled by May right from the start. He is on record saying he told her not to agree to the sequencing of talks, he told her not to offer the financial settlement and he told her not to offer the backstop. He told her to go for CETA from mid 2017. May deliberately sidelined DexEU because she knew that DD would (correctly) refuse to cross the redlines and would walk rather than cave in. So she set up a parallel negotiating unit and undermined him. This is all well known and not disputed.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
How can they? The ERG are barely a third of the Tory Party and the DUP just 10 MPs.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
If May's deal does not go through, she will resign and a Leaver will become Tory leader and PM.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
If May's deal does not go through, the government will resign.
The Government cannot resign (in the sense of causing a GE). Only the PM can resign. Then another MP can attempt to form a Government.
I just don't see Mrs May resigning. She might propose a second referendum to resolve the impasse. There might be a VNOC in Mrs May by Tory MPs to force her to resign which may or may not be successful. There may be a VNOC in Mrs May's Goverment by all MPs which I think would be successful, followed by a temporary (or time-limited) "Government of National Unity".
I just don't see Mrs May meekly folding her tent and departing of her own volition.
A Vote of No Confidence in the Government will only come about if the DUP decide to support it. Any Tory MP who supported it would face loss of the Whip and Deselection.
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
i demand an apology for that last comment
An answer to the question "closest to what?" would also be good.
So the biggest act of self harm by a nation continues ! And not a single poll in 18 months has shown a majority who still think Brexit is a good idea . And yet the spivs and liars continue to parade around as if the country voted 80/20 to leave.
Barring a few saner voices the cabinet is full of delusional PM wannabes. These are dark times for the UK.
Maybe things have to be dark and getting darker for something dramatic to happen in relation to Brexit.
I always thought it would be a terrible path for the UK to follow, it is still not too late for a U - turn.
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
i demand an apology for that last comment
I demand an apology from everyone who voted leave.
I think it is a mistake to think that even a majority of the ERG favour No Deal Brexit. They might prefer Canada Plus, but they also mostly believe a disorganised No Deal Brexit would cause economic issues that they would would be blamed for.
Maybe, so they might accept a crap-ish deal, but they won't accept a backstop that cannot be ended by the UK. There were 80 ERG MPs who were not happy with Chequers (they were prepared to back amendments) but maybe you can argue that many would have fallen into line for that deal since if accepted it would have removed the need for a backstop. But Chequers is dead. The backstop means that Brexit will probably never happen. May is not going to give them any choice but to vote it down.
Are there any treaties in existence that cannot be canceled?
Raised earlier. Under the Vienna Convention you cannot cancel a treaty unilaterally if the treaty does not allow it. Some debate as to whether the convention would cover the WA as the EU is not a party to the convention in its own right although the UK is.
The scope of the Convention is limited. It applies only to treaties concluded between states, so it does not cover agreements between states and international organizations or between international organizations themselves
For treaties between states and international organisations, there is a separate treaty, the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties between States and International Organizations or between International Organizations from 1986. However, this second convention - despite being over 30 years old - is not in force, as it has not yet been ratified by a sufficient number of states. Furthermore, and slightly ironically in the circumstances, the EEC is not a signatory to the 1986 treaty anyway. (The international bodies that are are IAEA, ICAO, Interpol, ILO, IMO, OPCW, CTBTO Preparatory Commission, the UN, UNIDO, UPU, WHO, and WIPO.)
So the biggest act of self harm by a nation continues ! And not a single poll in 18 months has shown a majority who still think Brexit is a good idea . And yet the spivs and liars continue to parade around as if the country voted 80/20 to leave.
Barring a few saner voices the cabinet is full of delusional PM wannabes. These are dark times for the UK.
Actions taken following a referendum are not likely to be reversed because opinion polls show people think it is now a bad idea. And when people support a government, no matter its composition, I bet they are a lot less likely to claim that polls must lead to specific action, given oppositions usually get into the lead in mid parliament. Plus, even though people think it is a bad idea, are an equivalent number also saying it must therefore be reversed? I don't think they are.
Remain is closer to happening now than for a long time, but the idea that because polls show something that shows certain courses of action must happen breaks down after even 1 minute of thought. If a poll shows that no deal is the most popular single outcome, would you suggest we must do that? I bet you would not.
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
i demand an apology for that last comment
I demand an apology from everyone who voted leave.
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
i demand an apology for that last comment
LOL! Demand? FFS...
If you were stupid enough to vote Leave then you should apologise to the whole nation (not just me)
So the biggest act of self harm by a nation continues ! And not a single poll in 18 months has shown a majority who still think Brexit is a good idea . And yet the spivs and liars continue to parade around as if the country voted 80/20 to leave.
Barring a few saner voices the cabinet is full of delusional PM wannabes. These are dark times for the UK.
Maybe things have to be dark and getting darker for something dramatic to happen in relation to Brexit.
I always thought it would be a terrible path for the UK to follow, it is still not too late for a U - turn.
Unfortunately I think that ships sailed . Barring an unlikely second EU ref the demise of the UK will be cemented. And amazingly a large majority of Leavers support the break up of the UK , the next time a Leaver accuses Remainers of not being patriotic they need to look in the mirror .
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
i demand an apology for that last comment
I demand an apology from everyone who voted leave.
Could you just publish your 2016 campaigning diary, to confirm you deserve one?
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
Brexit = a calamity is a fair view for many
Your other comment is just inflamatory to many and does not add to the debate
I salute your optimism, it is years since most of us gave up any hope of this poster adding anything to any debate.
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
Brexit = a calamity is a fair view for many
Your other comment is just inflamatory to many and does not add to the debate
I salute your optimism, it is years since most of us gave up any hope of this poster adding anything to any debate.
If you don't like my posts, surely the "higher ground" approach is to just ignore my posts?
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
i demand an apology for that last comment
I demand an apology from everyone who voted leave.
Really?
You think you're so wise that no other view can prevail, or even be expressed?
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
i demand an apology for that last comment
I demand an apology from everyone who voted leave.
Really?
You think you're so wise that no other view can prevail, or even be expressed?
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
Brexit = a calamity is a fair view for many
Your other comment is just inflamatory to many and does not add to the debate
I salute your optimism, it is years since most of us gave up any hope of this poster adding anything to any debate.
If you don't like my posts, surely the "higher ground" approach is to just ignore my posts?
This is not a problem with my subjectively disliking them, but that they are objectively completely worthless and moderately irritating. Surely the "higher ground" approach is for you to just stop posting them?
I think it is a mistake to think that even a majority of the ERG favour No Deal Brexit. They might prefer Canada Plus, but they also mostly believe a disorganised No Deal Brexit would cause economic issues that they would would be blamed for.
Maybe, so they might accept a crap-ish deal, but they won't accept a backstop that cannot be ended by the UK. There were 80 ERG MPs who were not happy with Chequers (they were prepared to back amendments) but maybe you can argue that many would have fallen into line for that deal since if accepted it would have removed the need for a backstop. But Chequers is dead. The backstop means that Brexit will probably never happen. May is not going to give them any choice but to vote it down.
Are there any treaties in existence that cannot be canceled?
Raised earlier. Under the Vienna Convention you cannot cancel a treaty unilaterally if the treaty does not allow it. Some debate as to whether the convention would cover the WA as the EU is not a party to the convention in its own right although the UK is.
The scope of the Convention is limited. It applies only to treaties concluded between states, so it does not cover agreements between states and international organizations or between international organizations themselves
For treaties between states and international organisations, there is a separate treaty, the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties between States and International Organizations or between International Organizations from 1986. However, this second convention - despite being over 30 years old - is not in force, as it has not yet been ratified by a sufficient number of states. Furthermore, and slightly ironically in the circumstances, the EEC is not a signatory to the 1986 treaty anyway. (The international bodies that are are IAEA, ICAO, Interpol, ILO, IMO, OPCW, CTBTO Preparatory Commission, the UN, UNIDO, UPU, WHO, and WIPO.)
Robert, the EU and its predecessors were never international in the sense fo the treaty, but rather multilateral or regional.
Remainers can look at the younger generation and say I did the right thing for you . It’s not for those with little to lose to play roulette with the futures of those who have to live longest with the consequences .
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
i demand an apology for that last comment
I demand an apology from everyone who voted leave.
So the biggest act of self harm by a nation continues ! And not a single poll in 18 months has shown a majority who still think Brexit is a good idea . And yet the spivs and liars continue to parade around as if the country voted 80/20 to leave.
Barring a few saner voices the cabinet is full of delusional PM wannabes. These are dark times for the UK.
Maybe things have to be dark and getting darker for something dramatic to happen in relation to Brexit.
I always thought it would be a terrible path for the UK to follow, it is still not too late for a U - turn.
Unfortunately I think that ships sailed . Barring an unlikely second EU ref the demise of the UK will be cemented. And amazingly a large majority of Leavers support the break up of the UK , the next time a Leaver accuses Remainers of not being patriotic they need to look in the mirror .
Indeed, I could never see how supporting Leave, leading to a smaller economy, less money to spend on the military and so on is being patriotic. My experience of Leave supporters is that many of them do not understand how Brexit will affect the economy, trade and investment. Furthermore the fact immigration is going to continue Brexit or not will not satisfy Leavers. People voted Leave for many different reasons and the prospectus they were sold were lies that people chose to believe. My view is Brexit should be cancelled and as a result austerity ended, with an effort to reinvigorate those lives that have been left behind economically in recent years.
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
Brexit = a calamity is a fair view for many
Your other comment is just inflamatory to many and does not add to the debate
I salute your optimism, it is years since most of us gave up any hope of this poster adding anything to any debate.
If you don't like my posts, surely the "higher ground" approach is to just ignore my posts?
This is not a problem with my subjectively disliking them, but that they are objectively completely worthless and moderately irritating. Surely the "higher ground" approach is for you to just stop posting them?
So, you don't want me to speak my mind, however ridiculous to you my posts are?
This is getting ridiculous. We need to cancel it soon.
It will be. Brexit is a clusterf*ck as many had predicted. Any pragmatic Government who truly cared for the national interest would re-visit the Referendum result (which was based on a pack of lies and a climate of xenophobia).
Brexit = a calamity. Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
i demand an apology for that last comment
I demand an apology from everyone who voted leave.
Really?
You think you're so wise that no other view can prevail, or even be expressed?
The scope of the Convention is limited. It applies only to treaties concluded between states, so it does not cover agreements between states and international organizations or between international organizations themselves
For treaties between states and international organisations, there is a separate treaty, the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties between States and International Organizations or between International Organizations from 1986. However, this second convention - despite being over 30 years old - is not in force, as it has not yet been ratified by a sufficient number of states. Furthermore, and slightly ironically in the circumstances, the EEC is not a signatory to the 1986 treaty anyway. (The international bodies that are are IAEA, ICAO, Interpol, ILO, IMO, OPCW, CTBTO Preparatory Commission, the UN, UNIDO, UPU, WHO, and WIPO.)
Robert, the EU and its predecessors were never international in the sense fo the treaty, but rather multilateral or regional.
Thank you. Given that some EU members (like France) are pointedly not signatories of the original Vienna convention, could a treaty between a multilateral organisation and the UK be covered by the original Vienna convention?
I think it is a mistake to think that even a majority of the ERG favour No Deal Brexit. They might prefer Canada Plus, but they also mostly believe a disorganised No Deal Brexit would cause economic issues that they would would be blamed for.
Maybe, so they might accept a crap-ish deal, but they won't accept a backstop that cannot be ended by the UK. There were 80 ERG MPs who were not happy with Chequers (they were prepared to back amendments) but maybe you can argue that many would have fallen into line for that deal since if accepted it would have removed the need for a backstop. But Chequers is dead. The backstop means that Brexit will probably never happen. May is not going to give them any choice but to vote it down.
Are there any treaties in existence that cannot be canceled?
Raised earlier. Under the Vienna Convention you cannot cancel a treaty unilaterally if the treaty does not allow it. Some debate as to whether the convention would cover the WA as the EU is not a party to the convention in its own right although the UK is.
The scope of the Convention is limited. It applies only to treaties concluded between states, so it does not cover agreements between states and international organizations or between international organizations themselves
For treaties between states and international organisations, there is a separate treaty, the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties between States and International Organizations or between International Organizations from 1986. However, this second convention - despite being over 30 years old - is not in force, as it has not yet been ratified by a sufficient number of states. Furthermore, and slightly ironically in the circumstances, the EEC is not a signatory to the 1986 treaty anyway. (The international bodies that are are IAEA, ICAO, Interpol, ILO, IMO, OPCW, CTBTO Preparatory Commission, the UN, UNIDO, UPU, WHO, and WIPO.)
Robert, the EU and its predecessors were never international in the sense fo the treaty, but rather multilateral or regional.
Although the Council of Europe is a signatory (which has not ratified the treaty...)
The scope of the Convention is limited. It applies only to treaties concluded between states, so it does not cover agreements between states and international organizations or between international organizations themselves
For treaties between states and international organisations, there is a separate treaty, the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties between States and International Organizations or between International Organizations from 1986. However, this second convention - despite being over 30 years old - is not in force, as it has not yet been ratified by a sufficient number of states. Furthermore, and slightly ironically in the circumstances, the EEC is not a signatory to the 1986 treaty anyway. (The international bodies that are are IAEA, ICAO, Interpol, ILO, IMO, OPCW, CTBTO Preparatory Commission, the UN, UNIDO, UPU, WHO, and WIPO.)
Robert, the EU and its predecessors were never international in the sense fo the treaty, but rather multilateral or regional.
I think rcs1000 is correct, but not totally sure. Even if the VC does not legally apply, most nations who are not party to the VC accept its terms. Without the VC, you would be in the realm of international law and convention.
In any event, the UK should never enter a treaty which does not allow for unilateral termination and then terminate it. Even if the VC does not legally apply, there is a strong view that since the UK is a party it should not act in conflict with its provisions. Frankly, May simply needs to insist that there is a right of termination.
The scope of the Convention is limited. It applies only to treaties concluded between states, so it does not cover agreements between states and international organizations or between international organizations themselves
For treaties between states and international organisations, there is a separate treaty, the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties between States and International Organizations or between International Organizations from 1986. However, this second convention - despite being over 30 years old - is not in force, as it has not yet been ratified by a sufficient number of states. Furthermore, and slightly ironically in the circumstances, the EEC is not a signatory to the 1986 treaty anyway. (The international bodies that are are IAEA, ICAO, Interpol, ILO, IMO, OPCW, CTBTO Preparatory Commission, the UN, UNIDO, UPU, WHO, and WIPO.)
Robert, the EU and its predecessors were never international in the sense fo the treaty, but rather multilateral or regional.
I think rcs1000 is correct, but not totally sure. Even if the VC does not legally apply, most nations who are not party to the VC accept its terms. Without the VC, you would be in the realm of international law and convention.
In any event, the UK should never enter a treaty which does not allow for unilateral termination and then terminate it. Even if the VC does not legally apply, there is a strong view that since the UK is a party it should not act in conflict with its provisions. Frankly, May simply needs to insist that there is a right of termination.
Remainers can look at the younger generation and say I did the right thing for you . It’s not for those with little to lose to play roulette with the futures of those who have to live longest with the consequences .
What a simplistic view of things - how dare older people vote at all in that case, when they won't feel the consequences as keenly. Speaks a 31 year old.
Never mind that it is possible that people who voted leave thought that it was the best thing long term for young people. They might be wrong, no doubt you think it was wrong and obviously so, but I doubt you would find it hard to find a leaver who could look at the younger generation and say 'I did the right thing for you'. Again, you will think that is wrong, but if all you want is people to be able to look at the younger generation and say it, most people could do so. It's very silly.
Comments
"Should the UK or part of the UK permanently or temporarily remain in the customs union, then they will be treated in an equal fashion with regards to all their rights and obligations, the same as any other member of the customs union, which is an important instrument of trade and economic policy."
Well this is a surprise. If we execute the backstop, we will have to pay the EU huge sums of money for the privilege. Who would have thought it?
Of course, Goldman (and Morgan Stanley, etc.) can solve this problem by a rejgging of their European entities. (And I'm sure they're doing that now.) However, the longer term issue is that if the UK is no longer the de facto place to put European holding companies, then it probably ceases being the place for European HQs.
https://political-atlas.com/trump-approval
And I do not need saving by the way, the grown ups in the HOC will ensure there is no deal and if pushed maybe no brexit
Honourable guy. Can't imagine him trying to tell the UK public that there is a difference between 'temporary' and 'time limited'.
If May's plan does not go through you will likely end up with a Corbyn minority government in a few months pushing through an almost identical Customs Union plan anyway propped up by the SNP and LDs
They'd be well and truly trashed and take the Tories down with them.
Now given the FT's obvious bias (and this is a bit of a puff piece) I wouldn't necessarily take that at face value but if true Robbins can hardly be blamed and the Brexiteers only have themselves to blame.
What I would say is that in this age of leaks, I am very surprised that neither Robbins' side (that he had asked for the Brexiteers' view of what it should look like) nor Davis's side (that he was being sideljned and disagreed with May) seemed to appear in the press at the time, only long after the event, making me doubt both accounts.
In terms of where to go from here I remember saying after Chequers that the proposal in its current form was sufficient to carry through Parliament and more importantly get the grudging acceptance of most of the electorate. However, if further concessions were needed the government was in serious trouble. Now this has (predictably) come to pass I see no reason to revisit my original opinion.
It really has been appallingly handled.
That's what the Tories thought about Corbyn...
The HoC were completely unable to represent the nation in respect of Brexit. So they dumped the question on the public, promised to accept the result and then sulked when it didn't go the way they wanted and spent the rest of the time trying to undermine the decision. If they do try to reverse Brexit, it will be nothing to do with being 'grown up' and much more about their total failure to accept the consequences of their own actions. Luckily, they are all so self-interested I don't think we have to worry that they will engage in co-ordinated action.
Threatening betrayed Leavers with Corbyn will not work.
However, the minimal part of the speech dedicated to immigration, and the failure to acknowledge objections not grounded in macro or microeconomics, mean that he is a big part of why we voted to leave.
Of course it may be but it's just too soon to tell.
Corbyn would be temporary.
The satirists' responses were along the lines of 'this tax won't affect him, he's certainly never had any maids...'
We have not left yet.
Trump needs to hold onto those states to win in 2020, and he needs the economic expansion to worm its magic there.
And do you have a members vote
And no, of course I am not a Tory member.
They are hoping May will change her mind over the weekend.
Obviously if May's plan isn't changed when she presents it to Cabinet on Monday but they still don't resign they will look silly.
"If last year’s general election proved anything, it was that the Conservative path to a real Commons majority runs through seats where in-work poverty really matters."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/11/sell-universal-credit-masses-conservatives-have-show-pays-work/
Raab needs time to make his case
Unless Boris is on it; then all bets are off.
However. I don’t think there would be a members vote if there is a change of leader.
Any of these three could happen:
- Coronation - maybe 25% likelihood. Probably Davis
- MPs vote, then the loser of the final two withdraws, as in 2016 - maybe 60% likelihood
- Emergency change of leadership rules by Party Board - maybe 15% likelihood
Then he opted to bugger what little chance it had of working out by lopping several billion out of the scheme.
I think the idea that Tory MPs will manage to put up two Remain candidates just to block the leavers is optimistic at best. There are more than enough MPs who will back a Leave candidate. There is no chance in my judgement that Hunt or Javid could beat a leaver in a membership ballot called because May resigns over Brexit. If they want the crown it would have to be after Brexit was delivered.
Raab is well placed as long as he does not concede over the backstop. His contribution today was encouraging and well judged. He is at least as credible as Hunt or Javid.
My guess is that the Remainers will back DD as the compromise candidate because it will give them a chance to come back later, as DD won't stay for long. But I still think Raab could get the win IF he stands firm now.
I think you have to go back to Wellington in 1828.
May wants to claim the backstop is temporary because it is 'intended' to end, but it will have no specific end date or method of termination. 'Time limited' means it will end after a certain period of time.
Strangely enough, nobody is falling for May's latest attempt to redefine the English language.
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tried-to-fire-john-kelly-but-kelly-ignored-him-report-says-2018-10
I just don't see Mrs May meekly folding her tent and departing of her own volition.
GO took the 3 billion that is causing the shortfall now
I have no doubt it needs reforming, indeed conservative mps are demanding reform
I think May stays until her own party grow some balls and stop asking her to change her mind and instead tell her they no longer want her to make the choices. Until they do, she will make such choices as she feels necessary.
I do think a second referendum is possible as an impasse breaker as you suggest, not least because it is possible to sell it to both sides to some degree and avoids an election which, if they are smart, the Tories will want to avoid.
Brexit = a calamity.
Brexiteers = idiots, fruitcakes and closest racists!
The HOC will stop it one way or another
What we need is to get through to transition, then GE when each party can confirm what they will actually then do - diverge/no diverge - rather than, as at present, the Tories have no clue what they will offer, and Labour are deliberately suggesting everything is possible.
People like IDS are obsessed by benefits. They simply do not understand that some people cannot work, that making people move from a weekly to a monthly budget does not take into consideration people who cannot budget or strategically plan ahead. In the same vein changing housing benefits direct from landlord to renter is complicating things for individuals who find finances hard to manage, Many people who are being shunted from existing benefits to UC are defined as being vulnerable and unable to plan yet the government are insistent on implementing this failing scheme despite the evidence that shows it does not work.
Brexit = a calamity is a fair view for many
Your other comment is just inflamatory to many and does not add to the debate
Barring a few saner voices the cabinet is full of delusional PM wannabes. These are dark times for the UK.
I always thought it would be a terrible path for the UK to follow, it is still not too late for a U - turn.
The scope of the Convention is limited. It applies only to treaties concluded between states, so it does not cover agreements between states and international organizations or between international organizations themselves
For treaties between states and international organisations, there is a separate treaty, the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties between States and International Organizations or between International Organizations from 1986. However, this second convention - despite being over 30 years old - is not in force, as it has not yet been ratified by a sufficient number of states. Furthermore, and slightly ironically in the circumstances, the EEC is not a signatory to the 1986 treaty anyway. (The international bodies that are are IAEA, ICAO, Interpol, ILO, IMO, OPCW, CTBTO Preparatory Commission, the UN, UNIDO, UPU, WHO, and WIPO.)
Remain is closer to happening now than for a long time, but the idea that because polls show something that shows certain courses of action must happen breaks down after even 1 minute of thought. If a poll shows that no deal is the most popular single outcome, would you suggest we must do that? I bet you would not.
If you were stupid enough to vote Leave then you should apologise to the whole nation (not just me)
You think you're so wise that no other view can prevail, or even be expressed?
how sweet
Isn't that censorship?
In any event, the UK should never enter a treaty which does not allow for unilateral termination and then terminate it. Even if the VC does not legally apply, there is a strong view that since the UK is a party it should not act in conflict with its provisions. Frankly, May simply needs to insist that there is a right of termination.
Never mind that it is possible that people who voted leave thought that it was the best thing long term for young people. They might be wrong, no doubt you think it was wrong and obviously so, but I doubt you would find it hard to find a leaver who could look at the younger generation and say 'I did the right thing for you'. Again, you will think that is wrong, but if all you want is people to be able to look at the younger generation and say it, most people could do so. It's very silly.