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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The danger of making resignation threats is this that you look silly if you don’t follow through
Exclusive: Theresa May given the weekend to change her backstop plan or face losing Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey and Peddy Mordaunt from Cabinet
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You must resign.
Unhappy though I am I just don't see an alternative to going through with this. Bringing May down now throws the whole process into complete chaos and would damage the country. Like Labour back benches, Tory leavers have learned the harsh lesson that failing to act is also a decision with consequences.
Given where we are I think we have no choice but to swallow her shit. What we need to do is ensure, so far as possible, that her pathetic efforts will not be binding on future governments so we can sort this out once she has gone.
I see only sunlit uplands if they go.
Might be a different kettle of monkeys if Gove quits even if he is a serial backstabber.
Both the ERG and the remainers (Leadsom, Mcvey and Mordaunt being the latest prima donnas) can't help themselves when it comes to grandstanding whataboutery right now when they should be getting behind May.
This bunch do not need to make threats in order to look silly. Interviews are enough....
Be like May and ignore all around you.
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1050753290756116480?s=21
Davis and Johnson should have done the same. Resigning makes it too easy for May.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-42190358
Their arrival would at least quintuple the average level of intelligence in the Cabinet, given the prevalence of quarterwits currently.
Whilst I'm married to a Remain voter, I wouldn't let my daughter marry one. Remainers have no class.
I think there are two different axis here: the number of resignations from cabinet, and what they announce when (and if) they go. In particular, do they quit and announce that their letter has gone into the '22.
If just one goes, and particularly if its Leadsom, then nothing really happens.
At the other end of the scale, if it's Leadsom, Raab and Morduant, and they all call for a VoNC, then I think the MPs will be voting on whether she remains imminently.
My suspicion is that Mrs May has made it clear to all and sundry that she will fight a VoNC and that she will win it. That doubt among the ERG, that she might hold on is surely what is preventing resignations.
The second thing that's worked in Mrs May's favour to date is that no-one is really that keen to take over right now. Boris doesn't want to lead the UK into No Deal, hence his proposal to immediately ask for a six month extension to Article 50. David Davis doesn't want the job. While most of the ERG want Canada+, very, very few of them want No Deal as a stepping stone to it.
So, in the immortal words of The Clash, "If She Goes There Will be Trouble, If She Stays It Will be Double."
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/10/will-the-tories-have-the-wit-to-save-universal-credit-and-themselves/
When the Spectator is putting the boot in, the Tories really, really need to pay attention. While IDS isn't particularly bright, UC was a passion project for him. He resigned, quite rightly, because the Treasury is inhabited by wall to wall heartless c*nts. They've turned what was a worthy, if imperfect, attempt to address the welfare trap into yet another assault on the poor.
https://share.trin.cam.ac.uk/sites/public/Comms/Rogers_brexit_as_revolution.pdf
Not sure they made any customs offer since the Uk did not seek one.
Brave.
Given the complete absence of any coherent workable plan from the headbangers, they are effectively offering a nihilist vision of Brexit. That's not something that anyone sane could support (which is no doubt why so many Leavers have rallied behind them). For all its many faults, the Chequers proposal was an attempt to resolve the outstanding differences between the EU and Britain.
(i) Trying to cherry pick, which was a sop to the Remain voters. Brexit was a binary decision and whenever there was a choice, the leave manifesto was the appropriate path. Huge amounts of time have been wasted trying to maintain 'benefits' of the SM when we should have been pursuing CETA the whole time. We wasted our negotiating capital and looked confused and unprepared.
(ii) DD was right - we should never have agreed to the sequencing of the talks. It made no sense (basically the EU saying that they could not talk trade until after Brexit, in which case there was no point the UK even taking part in a discussion) and we should have stood our ground and refused to start negotiations until something sensible was proposed. But once again, the problem was Remainers screaming that we had to make concessions, that we could not precipitate a crisis, that we could never leave without a deal. The sequencing was a huge trap and once the EU realised May would fall for it, they knew she would cave on everything. So it has proven.
(iii) Not being prepared to walk away, and not planning for no deal as the default state. No deal was always the correct default outcome if the EU were serious about refusing to negotiate a trade outcome as part of the WA. It is simply beyond belief that the Government refused to plan for this.
Ultimately, if the UK had walked in December and stated that no backstop would ever be signed or even discussed, there would have been a crisis and it would have blown over. Once the NI issue was settled by a joint commitment to a technological solution (overseen by the WTO perhaps), the rest would have been easy - a transition period and CETA with the money linked to delivery. We would just be arguing about which 'pluses' of CETA we could agree.
This was never a particularly challenging situation. It was always going to take the UK walking out in a huff a few times early on and basically stating that they would prepare for WTO but negotiate in the meantime. But at every stage, the voice of the losers was paramount because they thought that if we conceded on everything, we would end up Remaining (either in reality or all but name). They may be right in outcome. But they have destroyed any chance of a sensible balanced deal, damaged the interests of the nation and as a result Brexit will continue to contaminate UK politics and in all probability destroy the Tory Party.
£5000 grants and a few lower interest loans are peanuts - just PR.
Nobody is talking about the complex tax issues caused by No Deal, and the fact that if we leave without a Withdrawal agreement then we drop out of EU regulations concerning withholding and double taxation. And once we do that, we're not going to be talking to the EU about it, we're going to have to negotiate with 28 members states. My former business, which had subsidiaries in Estonia, Latvia, Denmark and Italy, would be absolutely hammered by this.
Nor are they talking about the consequences of dropping out of the existing EU trade agreements, including (yes) with the US. I hold by my original contention that the consequences for non-EU trade would be more severe than for EU trade of a No Deal exit. It doesn't help that the current US government is seeking to screw us on Open Skies/Airlines, and now looks like they're blocking us from a key part of WTO rules on government procurement.
O/T The President of Oxford University Conservatives appears to have no sense of irony:-
"The banning of members of the Bullingdon club from holding office in the association – a club banned by the university and who’s values and activities have no place in the modern Conservative Party – will I hope show that we are moving towards a more open, welcoming, and tolerant environment for all.”
They had their chance and now TM, or someone, has to get a deal and put it to the HOC. I expect it will pass but if not the HOC will move to a second referendum.
If any Brexiteers resign from cabinet I would expect them to be replaced by serious non Brexiteers including Amber Rudd and possibly Nicky Morgan
The ERG have lost their cause and they only have themselves to blame. Apart from Raab the rest are seriously overrated
As for the party, I have no idea what happens, but I expect it will heal in time, but that is not my immediate concern. Getting the withdrawal agreement and transistion is all that matters at present
If the EU want some payments then lets hear what you are willing to offer on trade.
Process would have been additive rather than subtractive - far less fraught.
https://twitter.com/KarenPollock100/status/1050751570672005121
https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1050386424464375813
The degradation of Britain's cultural life continues. And, obviously, Brexit is in large part to blame.
Everything he touched has turned brown.
Nobody is fooled. The negotiations were run by Remainers and the EU knew it and exploited it. It is their fault it has been a fiasco. And if the Leavers resign and they are replaced by the utterly talentless Rudd and Morgan, then it will just make the Tory disaster at the next election even more spectacular. The only people who can save you are the DUP and ERG who will reject May's deal, force No Deal and (assuming some new leadership) prove that there will be no disaster and we can then revisit the EU from a position of strength.
I like the additive rather than substractive negotiating tactic. Are you available for Number 10s Brexit unit?
Bye, close the door on your way out.
So why on earth did he not resign 'right at the start'??