G you are usually fairly astute , what has gone wrong with you. She is useless, cannot do interviews unless it is a patsy special with no questions allowed. Most overrated politician in history.
Really? I did not know that. Do you have a link? Am not doubting you, merely would be interested. Of course there is always churn, but 17 appears to have been unusually volatile. 2 things are preventing Con-Lab switching. Brexit and JC. Once Brexit is done, the votes of those unaligned for whom leaving the EU is the most important issue will be up for grabs.
The YouGov post-election poll had 11% of 2015 Tories jumping ship to Labour. That's compared to a statistically-insignificant 2% of Tory votes converting to Labour in the first poll after the election had been called (19/04/17).
Now, admittedly, the post-election poll found 10% of 2015 Labour voters going over to the Tories - so the net movement between Tories and Labour wasn't that big. But the 19th April poll found that 13% of 2015 Labour voters were already saying then that they planned to switch to the Tories - so the Tory->Lab converts happened during the campaign, whereas the Lab->Tory converts had already happened.
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
Gone by who? She is a remainer. If she says no deal is possible, who exactly is going to replace her? And why? A leavers would replace her.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
Parliament can pass emergency legislation in days if the will is there
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
Gone by who? She is a remainer. If she says no deal is possible, who exactly is going to replace her? And why? A leavers would replace her.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
Almost nobody wants a No Deal. Those who pretend to today do not actually want to face the electoral consequences.
We agree though that May will “sell out”. However, I think it will pass.
I am sure it will be close, but even if Labour vote against, not all of the ERG will. She could pick up enough Labour rebels and even the LDs and SNP with concession of a referendum.
It would take a very strong stomach for a Tory MP to vote for No Deal and Potential Corbyn government.
You are completely wrong on this. Leavers have few problems with no deal. We don’t think it will be a disaster at all and will unlock a much better future. And if the EU won’t concede on NI, it is the principled thing to do. Splitting NI from the UK is unacceptable and the EEA is unacceptable.
And as DD says today, it is quite easy for the ERG to vote down a deal and not trigger a general election. The only real risk of an election is May selling out on the NI backstop. Then, the DUP will no confidence the Government.
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
I doubt it. The SNP does not have the momentum it enjoyed in 2015 and is likely to lose seats. Moreover the Tory charge would have much less force given their alliance with the DUP.
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
Labour need to win 64 seats for an overall majority, that requires a swing of at least 3.4% from the Tories on 2017 which means they would need at least a 4% lead over the Tories with the key Tory seat they need to win Stevenage to get a majority.
That of course assumes they win all their SNP targets and a PC seat, if they fail to gain those nationalist seats then Labour need a 6.09% swing from the Tories on 2017 and a lead over the Tories of 10% to get a majority with the key Tory seat they need to take to win a majority Altrincham and Sale West.
G you are usually fairly astute , what has gone wrong with you. She is useless, cannot do interviews unless it is a patsy special with no questions allowed. Most overrated politician in history.
She still ticks the party's boxes
She really doesn't. She's a one-time loser. The Tory party doesn't risk two-time losers....
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
I doubt it. The SNP does not have the momentum it enjoyed in 2015 and is likely to lose seats. Moreover the Tory charge would have much less force given their alliance with the DUP.
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
Gone by who? She is a remainer. If she says no deal is possible, who exactly is going to replace her? And why? A leavers would replace her.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
Parliament can pass emergency legislation in days if the will is there
But the Government would still have to table the Legislation . The firm support of the Opposition would also be needed to avoid procedural delays etc.
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
Gone by who? She is a remainer. If she says no deal is possible, who exactly is going to replace her? And why? A leavers would replace her.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
Almost nobody wants a No Deal. Those who pretend to today do not actually want to face the electoral consequences.
We agree though that May will “sell out”. However, I think it will pass.
I am sure it will be close, but even if Labour vote against, not all of the ERG will. She could pick up enough Labour rebels and even the LDs and SNP with concession of a referendum.
It would take a very strong stomach for a Tory MP to vote for No Deal and Potential Corbyn government.
You are completely wrong on this. Leavers have few problems with no deal. We don’t think it will be a disaster at all and will unlock a much better future. And if the EU won’t concede on NI, it is the principled thing to do. Splitting NI from the UK is unacceptable and the EEA is unacceptable.
And as DD says today, it is quite easy for the ERG to vote down a deal and not trigger a general election. The only real risk of an election is May selling out on the NI backstop. Then, the DUP will no confidence the Government.
I am sorry but in the last few days the narrative has turned and no deal will be stopped by the HOC
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
I doubt it. The SNP does not have the momentum it enjoyed in 2015 and is likely to lose seats. Moreover the Tory charge would have much less force given their alliance with the DUP.
The SNP are unlikely to lose seats to labour
I disagree - many SNP seats are vulnerable to Labour in Glasgow and the Central Belt.
G you are usually fairly astute , what has gone wrong with you. She is useless, cannot do interviews unless it is a patsy special with no questions allowed. Most overrated politician in history.
She still ticks the party's boxes
She really doesn't. She's a one-time loser. The Tory party doesn't risk two-time losers....
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
No deal is for negotiation. It will not happen in reality
But it requires the EU to take a pragmatic position. Now admittedly, that usually evidences itself in the last 48 hours of dealing with the EU, but so far there is little to no evidence of it from their negotiating team or the various EU leaders. A crap deal with no EU movement gets voted down. A pragmatic deal with a fair bit of fudge gets voted through (or Labour owns the subsequent No Deal Brexit).
Ball in the EU's court. Which is what explains May not budging off Chequers.
G you are usually fairly astute , what has gone wrong with you. She is useless, cannot do interviews unless it is a patsy special with no questions allowed. Most overrated politician in history.
She still ticks the party's boxes
She really doesn't. She's a one-time loser. The Tory party doesn't risk two-time losers....
"How many more wasted months are Tory MPs going to tolerate?"
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
Gone by who? She is a remainer. If she says no deal is possible, who exactly is going to replace her? And why? A leavers would replace her.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
Parliament can pass emergency legislation in days if the will is there
But the Government would still have to table the Legislation . The firm support of the Opposition would also be needed to avoid procedural delays etc.
The point I was making is that emergency legislation is possible
I assume your just half joking with your first line, obviously Labour do have many older voters and some of these will die but given the age distribution of voters for both parties then more Conservative 2017 voters won't be around for the next election than Labour 2017. Without any vote changing the Tories are already behind from the off. Which means just to match Labour in terms of vote retention they have to keep a higher percentage of their still living voters on board than Labour do.
The problem is say for example with lying to the students, it seems to be mainly right wing Conservative voters who are middle aged and older who feel they were lied to. It might be an age thing but I think younger Labour voters understand the idea that the opposition doesn't get to implement its manifesto.
Ummm...I work with students. Every day. I do a lot of the school's UCAS stuff. I do the mock Oxbridge interviews. I do personal statements and advise on courses. I guide them through finance. And with a lot of them, I act as a referee after they have left so they remain in semi-regular contact through email.
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
I doubt it. The SNP does not have the momentum it enjoyed in 2015 and is likely to lose seats. Moreover the Tory charge would have much less force given their alliance with the DUP.
The SNP are unlikely to lose seats to labour
How so? Labour gained from them last time and regained ground in a lot of other areas - there was a header a few months ago showing how small some of the majorities in Scotland are IIRC.
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
Gone by who? She is a remainer. If she says no deal is possible, who exactly is going to replace her? And why? A leavers would replace her.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
Almost nobody wants a No Deal. Those who pretend to today do not actually want to face the electoral consequences.
We agree though that May will “sell out”. However, I think it will pass.
I am sure it will be close, but even if Labour vote against, not all of the ERG will. She could pick up enough Labour rebels and even the LDs and SNP with concession of a referendum.
It would take a very strong stomach for a Tory MP to vote for No Deal and Potential Corbyn government.
Many of the "No Deal" notices published by the government insist there will actually be a deal. The premise therefore is that the EU having been told where to stick their deal will go "Aw shucks" and accept everything we want anyway. I think No Deal is a real possibility. It just means the subsequent climbdown will be an order of magnitude more humiliating. Brexiteers pushing a betrayal narrative might be happy with that. I'm sure Theresa May won't be.
G you are usually fairly astute , what has gone wrong with you. She is useless, cannot do interviews unless it is a patsy special with no questions allowed. Most overrated politician in history.
She still ticks the party's boxes
She really doesn't. She's a one-time loser. The Tory party doesn't risk two-time losers....
"How many more wasted months are Tory MPs going to tolerate?"
On the next election, the key numbers from 2017 were
- Con 42.4% - Lab 40% - LD 7.9% - UKIP 1.8%
Subsequently, I agree that Corbyn has lost support, some to Lib Dems certainly. However, he has also probably picked up support from non voters who now think he could win.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
Putting all together, the next election is still a dead heat. Probably the “real” number today is something like - Con 39.5 - Lab 39 - LD 10 - UKIP 4
We can rule out any early election. Only Labour is in any sense ready for one.
I'm fairly confident Labour can regain most/all of the support lost to the LibDems in an election campaign.
Only if Labour is able to be all things to all people, ie. Starmerist. If not, it'll leak a lot of voters to the Lib Dems.
On the Tory side, it's a question of how many of their supporters will swap to Ukip because they think May's Brexit will be Brexit in name only, or to the LibDems because they don't support Brexit at all.
Since Ukip won't have many candidates, it does look somewhat perilous for Labour. Which would of course be ironic since it's the Tories who are ballsing up Brexit, not them.
Brexit is not a salient issue for many Labour voters. Other issues will trump it - as was true in 2017.
That's my thinking as well. At least enough not to sink them.
I assume your just half joking with your first line, obviously Labour do have many older voters and some of these will die but given the age distribution of voters for both parties then more Conservative 2017 voters won't be around for the next election than Labour 2017. Without any vote changing the Tories are already behind from the off. Which means just to match Labour in terms of vote retention they have to keep a higher percentage of their still living voters on board than Labour do.
The problem is say for example with lying to the students, it seems to be mainly right wing Conservative voters who are middle aged and older who feel they were lied to. It might be an age thing but I think younger Labour voters understand the idea that the opposition doesn't get to implement its manifesto.
Ummm...I work with students. Every day. I do a lot of the school's UCAS stuff. I do the mock Oxbridge interviews. I do personal statements and advise on courses. I guide them through finance. And with a lot of them, I act as a referee after they have left so they remain in semi-regular contact through email.
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
I doubt it. The SNP does not have the momentum it enjoyed in 2015 and is likely to lose seats. Moreover the Tory charge would have much less force given their alliance with the DUP.
The SNP are unlikely to lose seats to labour
How so? Labour gained from them last time and regained ground in a lot of other areas - there was a header a few months ago showing how small some of the majorities in Scotland are IIRC.
There is no evidence labour are progressing in Scotland
I prefer to think of them as unlikely serendipitous events - it sounds better than believing in miracles.
I can't think of anything which would count as a miracle these days; if someone wakened the dead or turned water into wine I would bet the house at any odds that they had done it with proper science.
I assume your just half joking with your first line, obviously Labour do have many older voters and some of these will die but given the age distribution of voters for both parties then more Conservative 2017 voters won't be around for the next election than Labour 2017. Without any vote changing the Tories are already behind from the off. Which means just to match Labour in terms of vote retention they have to keep a higher percentage of their still living voters on board than Labour do.
The problem is say for example with lying to the students, it seems to be mainly right wing Conservative voters who are middle aged and older who feel they were lied to. It might be an age thing but I think younger Labour voters understand the idea that the opposition doesn't get to implement its manifesto.
Ummm...I work with students. Every day. I do a lot of the school's UCAS stuff. I do the mock Oxbridge interviews. I do personal statements and advise on courses. I guide them through finance. And with a lot of them, I act as a referee after they have left so they remain in semi-regular contact through email.
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
Which pledge to students has Corbyn abandoned?
The one about 'dealing with' existing debt, which his HE spokesperson said meant writing it off (although Corbyn himself didn't say that so explicitly).
Although I think he has quietly dropped his support for free university tuition as well.
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
Gone by who? She is a remainer. If she says no deal is possible, who exactly is going to replace her? And why? A leavers would replace her.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
Almost nobody wants a No Deal. Those who pretend to today do not actually want to face the electoral consequences.
We agree though that May will “sell out”. However, I think it will pass.
I am sure it will be close, but even if Labour vote against, not all of the ERG will. She could pick up enough Labour rebels and even the LDs and SNP with concession of a referendum.
It would take a very strong stomach for a Tory MP to vote for No Deal and Potential Corbyn government.
You are completely wrong on this. Leavers have few problems with no deal. We don’t think it will be a disaster at all and will unlock a much better future. And if the EU won’t concede on NI, it is the principled thing to do. Splitting NI from the UK is unacceptable and the EEA is unacceptable.
And as DD says today, it is quite easy for the ERG to vote down a deal and not trigger a general election. The only real risk of an election is May selling out on the NI backstop. Then, the DUP will no confidence the Government.
A majority of Leavers may have no problem with No Deal, a majority of the country does, as about a fifth of Leavers in the polls would switch to Remain if No Deal. Only about 40% of the country would accept No Deal, that is not sustainable either at the next general election or a new EU referendum.
The only sustainable Brexit is a Norway style one with a Canada style FTA the longer term aim
I assume your just half joking with your first line, obviously Labour do have many older voters and some of these will die but given the age distribution of voters for both parties then more Conservative 2017 voters won't be around for the next election than Labour 2017. Without any vote changing the Tories are already behind from the off. Which means just to match Labour in terms of vote retention they have to keep a higher percentage of their still living voters on board than Labour do.
The problem is say for example with lying to the students, it seems to be mainly right wing Conservative voters who are middle aged and older who feel they were lied to. It might be an age thing but I think younger Labour voters understand the idea that the opposition doesn't get to implement its manifesto.
Ummm...I work with students. Every day. I do a lot of the school's UCAS stuff. I do the mock Oxbridge interviews. I do personal statements and advise on courses. I guide them through finance. And with a lot of them, I act as a referee after they have left so they remain in semi-regular contact through email.
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
Which pledge to students has Corbyn abandoned?
He may not have technically abandoned something, but he very much deliberately gave the impression during the campaign that he was promising them something he was not in fact promising. It was a very grown up moment for him really, abandoning his so called principles to rely on the good old cross party tactics of carefully precise wording, ambiguity and obfuscation.
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
Gone by who? She is a remainer. If she says no deal is possible, who exactly is going to replace her? And why? A leavers would replace her.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
Almost nobody wants a No Deal. Those who pretend to today do not actually want to face the electoral consequences.
We agree though that May will “sell out”. However, I think it will pass.
I am sure it will be close, but even if Labour vote against, not all of the ERG will. She could pick up enough Labour rebels and even the LDs and SNP with concession of a referendum.
It would take a very strong stomach for a Tory MP to vote for No Deal and Potential Corbyn government.
You are completely wrong on this. Leavers have few problems with no deal. We don’t think it will be a disaster at all and will unlock a much better future. And if the EU won’t concede on NI, it is the principled thing to do. Splitting NI from the UK is unacceptable and the EEA is unacceptable.
And as DD says today, it is quite easy for the ERG to vote down a deal and not trigger a general election. The only real risk of an election is May selling out on the NI backstop. Then, the DUP will no confidence the Government.
A majority of Leavers may have no problem with No Deal, a majority of the country does, as about a fifth of Leavers in the polls would switch to Remain if No Deal. Only about 40% of the country would accept No Deal, that is not sustainable either at the next general election or a new EU referendum.
The only sustainable Brexit is a Norway style one with a Canada style FTA the longer term aim
Interesting. But turns on ones definition of miracle. Are they saying divine intervention to overturn the laws of physics? Or the more commonly used definition of a highly unlikely but just about plausible event? Such as it is a miracle Leicester won the Premier League, or it is a miracle that Corbyn became leader. In these days where most grow up without a religious education, I would suspect the latter.
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
I doubt it. The SNP does not have the momentum it enjoyed in 2015 and is likely to lose seats. Moreover the Tory charge would have much less force given their alliance with the DUP.
The SNP are unlikely to lose seats to labour
How so? Labour gained from them last time and regained ground in a lot of other areas - there was a header a few months ago showing how small some of the majorities in Scotland are IIRC.
There is no evidence labour are progressing in Scotland
Labour is a fair bit better placed there than at the outset of the 2017 campaign. Did you anticipate 7 Labour MPs to be returned last time? I predicted 4 or 5 and was lampooned for so doing. I don't expect the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election.
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
Gone by who? She is a remainer. If she says no deal is possible, who exactly is going to replace her? And why? A leavers would replace her.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
Almost nobody wants a No Deal. Those who pretend to today do not actually want to face the electoral consequences.
We agree though that May will “sell out”. However, I think it will pass.
I am sure it will be close, but even if Labour vote against, not all of the ERG will. She could pick up enough Labour rebels and even the LDs and SNP with concession of a referendum.
It would take a very strong stomach for a Tory MP to vote for No Deal and Potential Corbyn government.
You are completely wrong on this. Leavers have few problems with no deal. We don’t think it will be a disaster at all and will unlock a much better future. And if the EU won’t concede on NI, it is the principled thing to do. Splitting NI from the UK is unacceptable and the EEA is unacceptable.
And as DD says today, it is quite easy for the ERG to vote down a deal and not trigger a general election. The only real risk of an election is May selling out on the NI backstop. Then, the DUP will no confidence the Government.
IF May fudges, as we both expect, and she is voted down by an unholy alliance of the ERG and Labour, what happens next?
She would be presumably be replaced by a Harder Brexiter - Davis, Johnson, or perhaps Javid, and a swing to CETA+ - however that still needs to get through Parliament.
How would it, given DUP would presumably vote against as would soft Tories (and all Opposition parties).
We would then have a constitutional and financial crisis, hurtling toward No Deal with no obvious solution in sight.
No - a Mayite fudge that resembles EEA+CU is the ONLY deal that can be agreed with EU and approved by Parliament.
G you are usually fairly astute , what has gone wrong with you. She is useless, cannot do interviews unless it is a patsy special with no questions allowed. Most overrated politician in history.
She still ticks the party's boxes
She really doesn't. She's a one-time loser. The Tory party doesn't risk two-time losers....
"How many more wasted months are Tory MPs going to tolerate?"
I don't know why they have wasted so much time - May at least, if committed to her course, has to keep trying it if no one will take action to remove her as leader, but the others can bleat all they want, if they don't actually do something then that is all it is, bleating.
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
I doubt it. The SNP does not have the momentum it enjoyed in 2015 and is likely to lose seats. Moreover the Tory charge would have much less force given their alliance with the DUP.
The SNP are unlikely to lose seats to labour
I disagree - many SNP seats are vulnerable to Labour in Glasgow and the Central Belt.
You keep spouting this wishful thinking garbage while ignoring the Scottish polling which puts Labour on 1 seat.
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
I doubt it. The SNP does not have the momentum it enjoyed in 2015 and is likely to lose seats. Moreover the Tory charge would have much less force given their alliance with the DUP.
The SNP are unlikely to lose seats to labour
I disagree - many SNP seats are vulnerable to Labour in Glasgow and the Central Belt.
You keep spouting this wishful thinking garbage while ignoring the Scottish polling which puts Labour on 1 seat.
I assume your just half joking with your first line, obviously Labour do have many older voters and some of these will die but given the age distribution of voters for both parties then more Conservative 2017 voters won't be around for the next election than Labour 2017. Without any vote changing the Tories are already behind from the off. Which means just to match Labour in terms of vote retention they have to keep a higher percentage of their still living voters on board than Labour do.
The problem is say for example with lying to the students, it seems to be mainly right wing Conservative voters who are middle aged and older who feel they were lied to. It might be an age thing but I think younger Labour voters understand the idea that the opposition doesn't get to implement its manifesto.
Ummm...I work with students. Every day. I do a lot of the school's UCAS stuff. I do the mock Oxbridge interviews. I do personal statements and advise on courses. I guide them through finance. And with a lot of them, I act as a referee after they have left so they remain in semi-regular contact through email.
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
Which pledge to students has Corbyn abandoned?
The one about 'dealing with' existing debt, which his HE spokesperson said meant writing it off (although Corbyn himself didn't say that so explicitly).
Although I think he has quietly dropped his support for free university tuition as well.
I certainly have not heard that he has dropped that pledge. Very unwise for him to do so I would have thought.
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
Gone by who? She is a remainer. If she says no deal is possible, who exactly is going to replace her? And why? A leavers would replace her.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
Almost nobody wants a No Deal. Those who pretend to today do not actually want to face the electoral consequences.
We agree though that May will “sell out”. However, I think it will pass.
I am sure it will be close, but even if Labour vote against, not all of the ERG will. She could pick up enough Labour rebels and even the LDs and SNP with concession of a referendum.
It would take a very strong stomach for a Tory MP to vote for No Deal and Potential Corbyn government.
You are completely wrong on this. Leavers have few problems with no deal. We don’t think it will be a disaster at all and will unlock a much better future. And if the EU won’t concede on NI, it is the principled thing to do. Splitting NI from the UK is unacceptable and the EEA is unacceptable.
And as DD says today, it is quite easy for the ERG to vote down a deal and not trigger a general election. The only real risk of an election is May selling out on the NI backstop. Then, the DUP will no confidence the Government.
And as you are safely ten thousand miles away, the risks you so readily urge are fortunately for others...
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
Gone by who? She is a remainer. If she says no deal is possible, who exactly is going to replace her? And why? A leavers would replace her.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
Almost nobody wants a No Deal. Those who pretend to today do not actually want to face the electoral consequences.
We agree though that May will “sell out”. However, I think it will pass.
I am sure it will be close, but even if Labour vote against, not all of the ERG will. She could pick up enough Labour rebels and even the LDs and SNP with concession of a referendum.
It would take a very strong stomach for a Tory MP to vote for No Deal and Potential Corbyn government.
You are completely wrong on this. Leavers have few problems with no deal.
How amazing that all Leavers think the same thing. They don't. I believe most Leavers would be content with no deal, even if they prefer otherwise, not not all leavers have 'few problems' with it.
At a human level I must say I do feel sorry for her, and some respect. Most PMs give the impression that they're enjoying themselves a bit - Cameron was serene, Brown saw himself as sturdy saviour, Blair loved trying to change opinion, Douglas Home had nothing to prove. But May seems to be just morosely struggling on out of a sense of duty. There are worse things in politics.
IF May fudges, as we both expect, and she is voted down by an unholy alliance of the ERG and Labour, what happens next?
She would be presumably be replaced by a Harder Brexiter - Davis, Johnson, or perhaps Javid, and a swing to CETA+ - however that still needs to get through Parliament.
How would it, given DUP would presumably vote against as would soft Tories (and all Opposition parties).
We would then have a constitutional and financial crisis, hurtling toward No Deal with no obvious solution in sight.
No - a Mayite fudge that resembles EEA+CU is the ONLY deal that can be agreed with EU and approved by Parliament.
There would probably not time for anything to happen if May’s deal is voted down. May resigns. A Leaver would take over. They would offer the EU a choice between CETA with no backstop or no deal. Which is what May should be doing now.
If the EU accept, there will be a short delay in A50 to get it done. If they refuse, there is no deal. In neither scenario would the DUP be upset - Leavers have no intention of accepting the backstop.
If May got Chequers agreed by the EU basically unamended, she would still probably lose in the HoC but she might have a chance. But May’s sellout fudge will be voted down. Easily. The moment she concedes on the customs partnership and agrees the customs union it is all over. No trade policy is a red line for plenty of Tories.
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
I doubt it. The SNP does not have the momentum it enjoyed in 2015 and is likely to lose seats. Moreover the Tory charge would have much less force given their alliance with the DUP.
The SNP are unlikely to lose seats to labour
How so? Labour gained from them last time and regained ground in a lot of other areas - there was a header a few months ago showing how small some of the majorities in Scotland are IIRC.
There is no evidence labour are progressing in Scotland
Labour is a fair bit better placed there than at the outset of the 2017 campaign. Did you anticipate 7 Labour MPs to be returned last time? I predicted 4 or 5 and was lampooned for so doing. I don't expect the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election.
That's not exactly setting the bar high is it? I mean, saying they are better placed than they were in May 2017 is like saying a man who has lost an arm and a leg is better off than a man who has lost both arms, one leg and his head.
You are quite right about how much ridicule you attracted. So you deserve a fair hearing on your other prediction. However, at the moment it's hard to see the SNP going significantly backwards. Labour are just too tainted and tired in Scotland. Look at the mess that is their leadership.
I think with the SNP when a collapse comes it could be quite sudden, as (like the Tories in England) they have survived faute de mieux rather than in their own strength. But it may be a while before it happens.
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
Gone by who? She is a remainer. If she says no deal is possible, who exactly is going to replace her? And why? A leavers would replace her.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
Almost nobody wants a No Deal. Those who pretend to today do not actually want to face the electoral consequences.
We agree though that May will “sell out”. However, I think it will pass.
I am sure it will be close, but even if Labour vote against, not all of the ERG will. She could pick up enough Labour rebels and even the LDs and SNP with concession of a referendum.
It would take a very strong stomach for a Tory MP to vote for No Deal and Potential Corbyn government.
You are completely wrong on this. Leavers have few problems with no deal. We don’t think it will be a disaster at all and will unlock a much better future. And if the EU won’t concede on NI, it is the principled thing to do. Splitting NI from the UK is unacceptable and the EEA is unacceptable.
And as DD says today, it is quite easy for the ERG to vote down a deal and not trigger a general election. The only real risk of an election is May selling out on the NI backstop. Then, the DUP will no confidence the Government.
And as you are safely ten thousand miles away, the risks you so readily urge are fortunately for others...
In defence of archer, while I don't agree with them on much, I don't think that they are not presently in the UK automatically means any urging or risk is unreasonable just because they won't share in it.
On topic Labour were very smart to engineer a small bump for the Tories in the polls (some of them anyway) - now when the polls turn the other way (which they will, since no one is pulling away right now) the drop following May's speech will seem even more dramatic.
I assume your just half joking with your first line, obviously Labour do have many older voters and some of these will die but given the age distribution of voters for both parties then more Conservative 2017 voters won't be around for the next election than Labour 2017. Without any vote changing the Tories are already behind from the off. Which means just to match Labour in terms of vote retention they have to keep a higher percentage of their still living voters on board than Labour do.
The problem is say for example with lying to the students, it seems to be mainly right wing Conservative voters who are middle aged and older who feel they were lied to. It might be an age thing but I think younger Labour voters understand the idea that the opposition doesn't get to implement its manifesto.
Ummm...I work with students. Every day. I do a lot of the school's UCAS stuff. I do the mock Oxbridge interviews. I do personal statements and advise on courses. I guide them through finance. And with a lot of them, I act as a referee after they have left so they remain in semi-regular contact through email.
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
Which pledge to students has Corbyn abandoned?
The one about 'dealing with' existing debt, which his HE spokesperson said meant writing it off (although Corbyn himself didn't say that so explicitly).
Although I think he has quietly dropped his support for free university tuition as well.
I certainly have not heard that he has dropped that pledge. Very unwise for him to do so I would have thought.
Here's the initial commitment, appropriately hedged by Rayner although her deputy was a lot less careful:
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
I doubt it. The SNP does not have the momentum it enjoyed in 2015 and is likely to lose seats. Moreover the Tory charge would have much less force given their alliance with the DUP.
The SNP are unlikely to lose seats to labour
How so? Labour gained from them last time and regained ground in a lot of other areas - there was a header a few months ago showing how small some of the majorities in Scotland are IIRC.
There is no evidence labour are progressing in Scotland
Labour is a fair bit better placed there than at the outset of the 2017 campaign. Did you anticipate 7 Labour MPs to be returned last time? I predicted 4 or 5 and was lampooned for so doing. I don't expect the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election.
That's not exactly setting the bar high is it? I mean, saying they are better placed than they were in May 2017 is like saying a man who has lost an arm and a leg is better off than a man who has lost both arms, one leg and his head.
You are quite right about how much ridicule you attracted. So you deserve a fair hearing on your other prediction. However, at the moment it's hard to see the SNP going significantly backwards. Labour are just too tainted and tired in Scotland. Look at the mess that is their leadership.
I think with the SNP when a collapse comes it could be quite sudden, as (like the Tories in England) they have survived faute de mieux rather than in their own strength. But it may be a while before it happens.
They don't actually *need* to fall that far backwards to lose more seats to Labour though - as, to be fair, they don't need to advance much in order to regain 6 of Labour's 7 Scottish seats. There are tons of seats on a knife-edge in Scotland.
IF May fudges, as we both expect, and she is voted down by an unholy alliance of the ERG and Labour, what happens next?
She would be presumably be replaced by a Harder Brexiter - Davis, Johnson, or perhaps Javid, and a swing to CETA+ - however that still needs to get through Parliament.
How would it, given DUP would presumably vote against as would soft Tories (and all Opposition parties).
We would then have a constitutional and financial crisis, hurtling toward No Deal with no obvious solution in sight.
No - a Mayite fudge that resembles EEA+CU is the ONLY deal that can be agreed with EU and approved by Parliament.
One not entirely implausible outcome is that the party ditches TMay and replaces her with somebody more emphatically leaverish, and that person promptly finds themselves in exactly the same box that she was in, and takes basically the same deal with a Tsipras-like shrug.
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
I doubt it. The SNP does not have the momentum it enjoyed in 2015 and is likely to lose seats. Moreover the Tory charge would have much less force given their alliance with the DUP.
The SNP are unlikely to lose seats to labour
How so? Labour gained from them last time and regained ground in a lot of other areas - there was a header a few months ago showing how small some of the majorities in Scotland are IIRC.
There is no evidence labour are progressing in Scotland
Labour is a fair bit better placed there than at the outset of the 2017 campaign. Did you anticipate 7 Labour MPs to be returned last time? I predicted 4 or 5 and was lampooned for so doing. I don't expect the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election.
I think with the SNP when a collapse comes it could be quite sudden, as (like the Tories in England) they have survived faute de mieux rather than in their own strength. But it may be a while before it happens.
Regrettably so - I cannot see a collapse for quite a long time, if it happens at all.
At a human level I must say I do feel sorry for her, and some respect. Most PMs give the impression that they're enjoying themselves a bit - Cameron was serene, Brown saw himself as sturdy saviour, Blair loved trying to change opinion, Douglas Home had nothing to prove. But May seems to be just morosely struggling on out of a sense of duty. There are worse things in politics.
Historians will have fun debating whether May was an unlucky PM or not.
She doesn't seem to have much as far as I can see.
But I agree, on a human level, one feels sympathy. Who hasn't had a big event or presentation and felt that horrible tickle in the back of the throat two days before and gone 'Oh no.'?
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
I doubt it. The SNP does not have the momentum it enjoyed in 2015 and is likely to lose seats. Moreover the Tory charge would have much less force given their alliance with the DUP.
The SNP are unlikely to lose seats to labour
I disagree - many SNP seats are vulnerable to Labour in Glasgow and the Central Belt.
You keep spouting this wishful thinking garbage while ignoring the Scottish polling which puts Labour on 1 seat.
They do not all show that at all - some polls have had Labour ahead of the Tories there and most have them very close together. Back in April 2017 pollsters were giving Labour circa 15% and many commentators were predicting a complete wipeout. I genuinely believe that if Labour appears competitive at the next election across GB as a whole , it will shift votes from the SNP to Labour. In 2017 the Corbyn surge lagged in Scotland, and had the campaign continued for a further week Labour would have ended up with circa 15 seats - at SNP expense.
IF May fudges, as we both expect, and she is voted down by an unholy alliance of the ERG and Labour, what happens next?
She would be presumably be replaced by a Harder Brexiter - Davis, Johnson, or perhaps Javid, and a swing to CETA+ - however that still needs to get through Parliament.
How would it, given DUP would presumably vote against as would soft Tories (and all Opposition parties).
We would then have a constitutional and financial crisis, hurtling toward No Deal with no obvious solution in sight.
No - a Mayite fudge that resembles EEA+CU is the ONLY deal that can be agreed with EU and approved by Parliament.
There would probably not time for anything to happen if May’s deal is voted down. May resigns. A Leaver would take over. They would offer the EU a choice between CETA with no backstop or no deal. Which is what May should be doing now.
If the EU accept, there will be a short delay in A50 to get it done. If they refuse, there is no deal. In neither scenario would the DUP be upset - Leavers have no intention of accepting the backstop.
If May got Chequers agreed by the EU basically unamended, she would still probably lose in the HoC but she might have a chance. But May’s sellout fudge will be voted down. Easily. The moment she concedes on the customs partnership and agrees the customs union it is all over. No trade policy is a red line for plenty of Tories.
Why would the EU accept, and even extend A50? Brexiters would need to definitively resolve the Irish border issue which they have completely failed to do so far.
Simply saying the Irish border is not an issue does not mean it is no longer an issue.
I assume your just half joking with your first line, obviously Labour do have many older voters and some of these will die but given the age distribution of voters for both parties then more Conservative 2017 voters won't be around for the next election than Labour 2017. Without any vote changing the Tories are already behind from the off. Which means just to match Labour in terms of vote retention they have to keep a higher percentage of their still living voters on board than Labour do.
The problem is say for example with lying to the students, it seems to be mainly right wing Conservative voters who are middle aged and older who feel they were lied to. It might be an age thing but I think younger Labour voters understand the idea that the opposition doesn't get to implement its manifesto.
Ummm...I work with students. Every day. I do a lot of the school's UCAS stuff. I do the mock Oxbridge interviews. I do personal statements and advise on courses. I guide them through finance. And with a lot of them, I act as a referee after they have left so they remain in semi-regular contact through email.
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
Which pledge to students has Corbyn abandoned?
The one about 'dealing with' existing debt, which his HE spokesperson said meant writing it off (although Corbyn himself didn't say that so explicitly).
Although I think he has quietly dropped his support for free university tuition as well.
I certainly have not heard that he has dropped that pledge. Very unwise for him to do so I would have thought.
Here's the initial commitment, appropriately hedged by Rayner although her deputy was a lot less careful:
No reason he cannot make the same play again next time - students are going to listen to Tories telling them he was fooling them last time? I don't believe for a second he did not know what he was doing, with others making the explicit (non official) promise to get the message out.
On topic Labour were very smart to engineer a small bump for the Tories in the polls (some of them anyway) - now when the polls turn the other way (which they will, since no one is pulling away right now) the drop following May's speech will seem even more dramatic.
I don't know why people always expect "conference bounces". I don't think there's been any significant ones since the '07 Tory conference.
At a human level I must say I do feel sorry for her, and some respect. Most PMs give the impression that they're enjoying themselves a bit - Cameron was serene, Brown saw himself as sturdy saviour, Blair loved trying to change opinion, Douglas Home had nothing to prove. But May seems to be just morosely struggling on out of a sense of duty. There are worse things in politics.
Historians will have fun debating whether May was an unlucky PM or not.
She doesn't seem to have much as far as I can see.
But I agree, on a human level, one feels sympathy. Who hasn't had a big event or presentation and felt that horrible tickle in the back of the throat two days before and gone 'Oh no.'?
I assume your just half joking with your first line, obviously Labour do have many older voters and some of these will die but given the age distribution of voters for both parties then more Conservative 2017 voters won't be around for the next election than Labour 2017. Without any vote changing the Tories are already behind from the off. Which means just to match Labour in terms of vote retention they have to keep a higher percentage of their still living voters on board than Labour do.
The problem is say for example with lying to the students, it seems to be mainly right wing Conservative voters who are middle aged and older who feel they were lied to. It might be an age thing but I think younger Labour voters understand the idea that the opposition doesn't get to implement its manifesto.
Ummm...I work with students. Every day. I do a lot of the school's UCAS stuff. I do the mock Oxbridge interviews. I do personal statements and advise on courses. I guide them through finance. And with a lot of them, I act as a referee after they have left so they remain in semi-regular contact through email.
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
Which pledge to students has Corbyn abandoned?
The one about 'dealing with' existing debt, which his HE spokesperson said meant writing it off (although Corbyn himself didn't say that so explicitly).
Although I think he has quietly dropped his support for free university tuition as well.
Student debt is indeed something that needs to be dealt with. The current format is going to have a lot written off in time, 60% on current projections will never be repaid. The only question is how many youngsters are going to be squeezed in the meantime. It is a crap system, and one of the major reasons that I want to see Cable gone. He cannot propose a solution to a problam of his own making.
To be honest, when it comes to student debt Labour have a point. It is a stupid system for a very large number of reasons. Most of that £100 billion of debt will never be paid back. Therefore, it should really be counted on the national debt. It is serviced on pretty unfavourable terms and depresses the graduate premium in wages. It encourages students to move abroad (in theory you're still liable for it abroad but given Kevin O'Connor is such an idiot he couldn't find a nuclear blast zone with a Geiger counter, never mind how to sue in a foreign court, that theory doesn't actually work in practice). And finally, it encourages universities to take on far more students than they can manage - and in the case of the Russell Group, take on a task (teaching undergraduates) that they are not actually very well-equipped for.
But just to blithely say it will be abolished without any meaningful suggestions of how it will be replaced, and worse, to say that the existing will be instantly cancelled as part of a naked push for votes before admitting it wasn't true - well, that was just idiocy.
IF May fudges, as we both expect, and she is voted down by an unholy alliance of the ERG and Labour, what happens next?
She would be presumably be replaced by a Harder Brexiter - Davis, Johnson, or perhaps Javid, and a swing to CETA+ - however that still needs to get through Parliament.
How would it, given DUP would presumably vote against as would soft Tories (and all Opposition parties).
We would then have a constitutional and financial crisis, hurtling toward No Deal with no obvious solution in sight.
No - a Mayite fudge that resembles EEA+CU is the ONLY deal that can be agreed with EU and approved by Parliament.
There would probably not time for anything to happen if May’s deal is voted down. May resigns. A Leaver would take over. They would offer the EU a choice between CETA with no backstop or no deal. Which is what May should be doing now.
If the EU accept, there will be a short delay in A50 to get it done. If they refuse, there is no deal. In neither scenario would the DUP be upset - Leavers have no intention of accepting the backstop.
If May got Chequers agreed by the EU basically unamended, she would still probably lose in the HoC but she might have a chance. But May’s sellout fudge will be voted down. Easily. The moment she concedes on the customs partnership and agrees the customs union it is all over. No trade policy is a red line for plenty of Tories.
Why would the EU accept, and even extend A50? Brexiters would need to definitively resolve the Irish border issue which they have completely failed to do so far.
Simply saying the Irish border is not an issue does not mean it is no longer an issue.
It is not an issue and not the UK’s job to resolve it.
If the EU insist on the NI backstop, there will be no deal. If they want to be sensible, it can be solved. But after no deal there is going to be a soft border whether they like it or not and at that time their leverage is gone. That is why no deal is probably the best tactical outcome for the UK.
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
I doubt it. The SNP does not have the momentum it enjoyed in 2015 and is likely to lose seats. Moreover the Tory charge would have much less force given their alliance with the DUP.
The SNP are unlikely to lose seats to labour
I disagree - many SNP seats are vulnerable to Labour in Glasgow and the Central Belt.
You keep spouting this wishful thinking garbage while ignoring the Scottish polling which puts Labour on 1 seat.
As it did in 2017 too?
Link? And there is no law which predicates 2017 being repeated.
In defence of archer, while I don't agree with them on much, I don't think that they are not presently in the UK automatically means any urging or risk is unreasonable just because they won't share in it.
Perhaps slightly more unreasonable, or less admirable at least?
If I were fierce, and bald, and short of breath, I’d live with scarlet Majors at the base, And speed glum heroes up the line to death. You’d see me with my puffy petulant face, Guzzling and gulping in the best hotel, Reading the Roll of Honour. ‘Poor young chap,’ I’d say—‘I used to know his father well. Yes, we’ve lost heavily in this last scrap.’ And when the war was done and youth stone dead, I’d toddle safely home and die — in bed.
But just to blithely say it will be abolished without any meaningful suggestions of how it will be replaced, and worse, to say that the existing will be instantly cancelled as part of a naked push for votes before admitting it wasn't true - well, that was just idiocy.
Vote winners are not idiocy to any political party - dealing with having to u-turn or underdeliver is a problem for Future PM Corbyn/May/Whoever to deal with. So long as it is not a direct lie (which I don't believe politicians generally indulge in, as it is too risky) these sorts of promises, and 'misunderstandings' of those promises to win votes, will always happen.
But I must get some work done now unfortunately - not enough hours in the working week!
I assume your just half joking with your first line, obviously Labour do have many older voters and some of these will die but given the age distribution of voters for both parties then more Conservative 2017 voters won't be around for the next election than Labour 2017. Without any vote changing the Tories are already behind from the off. Which means just to match Labour in terms of vote retention they have to keep a higher percentage of their still living voters on board than Labour do.
The problem is say for example with lying to the students, it seems to be mainly right wing Conservative voters who are middle aged and older who feel they were lied to. It might be an age thing but I think younger Labour voters understand the idea that the opposition doesn't get to implement its manifesto.
Ummm...I work with students. Every day. I do a lot of the school's UCAS stuff. I do the mock Oxbridge interviews. I do personal statements and advise on courses. I guide them through finance. And with a lot of them, I act as a referee after they have left so they remain in semi-regular contact through email.
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
Which pledge to students has Corbyn abandoned?
The one about 'dealing with' existing debt, which his HE spokesperson said meant writing it off (although Corbyn himself didn't say that so explicitly).
Although I think he has quietly dropped his support for free university tuition as well.
Student debt is indeed something that needs to be dealt with. The current format is going to have a lot written off in time, 60% on current projections will never be repaid. The only question is how many youngsters are going to be squeezed in the meantime. It is a crap system, and one of the major reasons that I want to see Cable gone. He cannot propose a solution to a problam of his own making.
We need a big, grown up debate about many things. social care. Infrastructure. Higher education. Indeed, secondary education. National government systems.
The likelihood of having such conversations after last year's unfortunate mishap on social care is the same as the likelihood of me getting a threesome with Maria Sharapova and Margot Robbie.
In defence of archer, while I don't agree with them on much, I don't think that they are not presently in the UK automatically means any urging or risk is unreasonable just because they won't share in it.
Perhaps slightly more unreasonable, or less admirable at least?
If I were fierce, and bald, and short of breath, I’d live with scarlet Majors at the base, And speed glum heroes up the line to death. You’d see me with my puffy petulant face, Guzzling and gulping in the best hotel, Reading the Roll of Honour. ‘Poor young chap,’ I’d say—‘I used to know his father well. Yes, we’ve lost heavily in this last scrap.’ And when the war was done and youth stone dead, I’d toddle safely home and die — in bed.
I perhaps should have said not 'entirely' unreasonable.
I assume your just half joking with your first line, obviously Labour do have many older voters and some of these will die but given the age distribution of voters for both parties then more Conservative 2017 voters won't be around for the next election than Labour 2017. Without any vote changing the Tories are already behind from the off. Which means just to match Labour in terms of vote retention they have to keep a higher percentage of their still living voters on board than Labour do.
The problem is say for example with lying to the students, it seems to be mainly right wing Conservative voters who are middle aged and older who feel they were lied to. It might be an age thing but I think younger Labour voters understand the idea that the opposition doesn't get to implement its manifesto.
Ummm...I work with students. Every day. I do a lot of the school's UCAS stuff. I do the mock Oxbridge interviews. I do personal statements and advise on courses. I guide them through finance. And with a lot of them, I act as a referee after they have left so they remain in semi-regular contact through email.
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
Which pledge to students has Corbyn abandoned?
The one about 'dealing with' existing debt, which his HE spokesperson said meant writing it off (although Corbyn himself didn't say that so explicitly).
Although I think he has quietly dropped his support for free university tuition as well.
I certainly have not heard that he has dropped that pledge. Very unwise for him to do so I would have thought.
Here's the initial commitment, appropriately hedged by Rayner although her deputy was a lot less careful:
Reading both sets of comments , it did not strike me that a firm commitment to writing off all debt had been made. 'Ambition' is far from that - and Corbyn did specifically refer to extending repayment periods etc. I would,however, be surprised if the commitment to abolish Tuition Fees were to be abandoned.
IF May fudges, as we both expect, and she is voted down by an unholy alliance of the ERG and Labour, what happens next?
She would be presumably be replaced by a Harder Brexiter - Davis, Johnson, or perhaps Javid, and a swing to CETA+ - however that still needs to get through Parliament.
How would it, given DUP would presumably vote against as would soft Tories (and all Opposition parties).
We would then have a constitutional and financial crisis, hurtling toward No Deal with no obvious solution in sight.
No - a Mayite fudge that resembles EEA+CU is the ONLY deal that can be agreed with EU and approved by Parliament.
There would probably not time for anything to happen if May’s deal is voted down. May resigns. A Leaver would take over. They would offer the EU a choice between CETA with no backstop or no deal. Which is what May should be doing now.
If the EU accept, there will be a short delay in A50 to get it done. If they refuse, there is no deal. In neither scenario would the DUP be upset - Leavers have no intention of accepting the backstop.
If May got Chequers agreed by the EU basically unamended, she would still probably lose in the HoC but she might have a chance. But May’s sellout fudge will be voted down. Easily. The moment she concedes on the customs partnership and agrees the customs union it is all over. No trade policy is a red line for plenty of Tories.
Why would the EU accept, and even extend A50? Brexiters would need to definitively resolve the Irish border issue which they have completely failed to do so far.
Simply saying the Irish border is not an issue does not mean it is no longer an issue.
It is not an issue and not the UK’s job to resolve it.
If the EU insist on the NI backstop, there will be no deal. If they want to be sensible, it can be solved. But after no deal there is going to be a soft border whether they like it or not and at that time their leverage is gone. That is why no deal is probably the best tactical outcome for the UK.
As I said, saying it is not an issue doesn’t make it go away.
Why would a No Deal (the Hardest of Brexits) mean a soft border?
I assume your just half joking with your first line, obviously Labour do have many older voters and some of these will die but given the age distribution of voters for both parties then more Conservative 2017 voters won't be around for the next election than Labour 2017. Without any vote changing the Tories are already behind from the off. Which means just to match Labour in terms of vote retention they have to keep a higher percentage of their still living voters on board than Labour do.
The problem is say for example with lying to the students, it seems to be mainly right wing Conservative voters who are middle aged and older who feel they were lied to. It might be an age thing but I think younger Labour voters understand the idea that the opposition doesn't get to implement its manifesto.
Ummm...I work with students. Every day. I do a lot of the school's UCAS stuff. I do the mock Oxbridge interviews. I do personal statements and advise on courses. I guide them through finance. And with a lot of them, I act as a referee after they have left so they remain in semi-regular contact through email.
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
Which pledge to students has Corbyn abandoned?
The one about 'dealing with' existing debt, which his HE spokesperson said meant writing it off (although Corbyn himself didn't say that so explicitly).
Although I think he has quietly dropped his support for free university tuition as well.
Student debt is indeed something that needs to be dealt with. The current format is going to have a lot written off in time, 60% on current projections will never be repaid. The only question is how many youngsters are going to be squeezed in the meantime. It is a crap system, and one of the major reasons that I want to see Cable gone. He cannot propose a solution to a problam of his own making.
We need a big, grown up debate about many things. social care. Infrastructure. Higher education. Indeed, secondary education. National government systems.
The likelihood of having such conversations after last year's unfortunate mishap on social care is the same as the likelihood of me getting a threesome with Maria Sharapova and Margot Robbie.
On your last sentence. Consider the role of miracles in modern life...
Reading both sets of comments , it did not strike me that a firm commitment to writing off all debt had been made. 'Ambition' is far from that - and Corbyn did specifically refer to extending repayment periods etc. I would,however, be surprised if the commitment to abolish Tuition Fees were to be abandoned.
Imran Hussain and Sharon Hodgson were the two who went further:
And that was certainly how most students took it. Even though Corbyn and Rayner left wriggle room, it was a bit of a case of a nod's as good as a wink to a blind horse.
In defence of archer, while I don't agree with them on much, I don't think that they are not presently in the UK automatically means any urging or risk is unreasonable just because they won't share in it.
Perhaps slightly more unreasonable, or less admirable at least?
If I were fierce, and bald, and short of breath, I’d live with scarlet Majors at the base, And speed glum heroes up the line to death. You’d see me with my puffy petulant face, Guzzling and gulping in the best hotel, Reading the Roll of Honour. ‘Poor young chap,’ I’d say—‘I used to know his father well. Yes, we’ve lost heavily in this last scrap.’ And when the war was done and youth stone dead, I’d toddle safely home and die — in bed.
I assume your just half joking with your first line, obviously Labour do have many older voters and some of these will die but given the age distribution of voters for both parties then more Conservative 2017 voters won't be around for the next election than Labour 2017. Without any vote changing the Tories are already behind from the off. Which means just to match Labour in terms of vote retention they have to keep a higher percentage of their still living voters on board than Labour do.
The problem is say for example with lying to the students, it seems to be mainly right wing Conservative voters who are middle aged and older who feel they were lied to. It might be an age thing but I think younger Labour voters understand the idea that the opposition doesn't get to implement its manifesto.
Ummm...I work with students. Every day. I do a lot of the school's UCAS stuff. I do the mock Oxbridge interviews. I do personal statements and advise on courses. I guide them through finance. And with a lot of them, I act as a referee after they have left so they remain in semi-regular contact through email.
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
Which pledge to students has Corbyn abandoned?
The one about 'dealing with' existing debt, which his HE spokesperson said meant writing it off (although Corbyn himself didn't say that so explicitly).
Although I think he has quietly dropped his support for free university tuition as well.
Student debt is indeed something that needs to be dealt with. The current format is going to have a lot written off in time, 60% on current projections will never be repaid. The only question is how many youngsters are going to be squeezed in the meantime. It is a crap system, and one of the major reasons that I want to see Cable gone. He cannot propose a solution to a problam of his own making.
We need a big, grown up debate about many things. social care. Infrastructure. Higher education. Indeed, secondary education. National government systems.
The likelihood of having such conversations after last year's unfortunate mishap on social care is the same as the likelihood of me getting a threesome with Maria Sharapova and Margot Robbie.
On your last sentence. Consider the role of miracles in modern life...
I assume your just half joking with your first line, obviously Labour do have many older voters and some of these will die but given the age distribution of voters for both parties then more Conservative 2017 voters won't be around for the next election than Labour 2017. Without any vote changing the Tories are already behind from the off. Which means just to match Labour in terms of vote retention they have to keep a higher percentage of their still living voters on board than Labour do.
The problem is say for example with lying to the students, it seems to be mainly right wing Conservative voters who are middle aged and older who feel they were lied to. It might be an age thing but I think younger Labour voters understand the idea that the opposition doesn't get to implement its manifesto.
Ummm...I work with students. Every day. I do a lot of the school's UCAS stuff. I do the mock Oxbridge interviews. I do personal statements and advise on courses. I guide them through finance. And with a lot of them, I act as a referee after they have left so they remain in semi-regular contact through email.
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
Which pledge to students has Corbyn abandoned?
The one about 'dealing with' existing debt, which his HE spokesperson said meant writing it off (although Corbyn himself didn't say that so explicitly).
Although I think he has quietly dropped his support for free university tuition as well.
Student debt is indeed something that needs to be dealt with. The current format is going to have a lot written off in time, 60% on current projections will never be repaid. The only question is how many youngsters are going to be squeezed in the meantime. It is a crap system, and one of the major reasons that I want to see Cable gone. He cannot propose a solution to a problam of his own making.
We need a big, grown up debate about many things. social care. Infrastructure. Higher education. Indeed, secondary education. National government systems.
The likelihood of having such conversations after last year's unfortunate mishap on social care is the same as the likelihood of me getting a threesome with Maria Sharapova and Margot Robbie.
Not completely out of the question, then ? Just requiring a highly improbable combination of circumstances.
Labour need to go into the next election campaign on course for a majority or the SNP factor will absolutely screw them again, like it did in 2015.
I doubt it. The SNP does not have the momentum it enjoyed in 2015 and is likely to lose seats. Moreover the Tory charge would have much less force given their alliance with the DUP.
The SNP are unlikely to lose seats to labour
I disagree - many SNP seats are vulnerable to Labour in Glasgow and the Central Belt.
You keep spouting this wishful thinking garbage while ignoring the Scottish polling which puts Labour on 1 seat.
As it did in 2017 too?
Link? And there is no law which predicates 2017 being repeated.
I am sure I recall at least a few polls predicting 1, or even 0, seats for SLAB at the GE based on the polling. I have to be off, but here's one found on a very quick google which claims Labour would win just 2.
No there isn't a law it will be repeated, but the point remains that they did unexpectedly well despite not great polling leading up to the GE, so though there is no law it is also not certain the polling means they won't be able to take more than 1 seat.
In defence of archer, while I don't agree with them on much, I don't think that they are not presently in the UK automatically means any urging or risk is unreasonable just because they won't share in it.
Perhaps slightly more unreasonable, or less admirable at least?
If I were fierce, and bald, and short of breath, I’d live with scarlet Majors at the base, And speed glum heroes up the line to death. You’d see me with my puffy petulant face, Guzzling and gulping in the best hotel, Reading the Roll of Honour. ‘Poor young chap,’ I’d say—‘I used to know his father well. Yes, we’ve lost heavily in this last scrap.’ And when the war was done and youth stone dead, I’d toddle safely home and die — in bed.
IF May fudges, as we both expect, and she is voted down by an unholy alliance of the ERG and Labour, what happens next?
She would be presumably be replaced by a Harder Brexiter - Davis, Johnson, or perhaps Javid, and a swing to CETA+ - however that still needs to get through Parliament.
How would it, given DUP would presumably vote against as would soft Tories (and all Opposition parties).
We would then have a constitutional and financial crisis, hurtling toward No Deal with no obvious solution in sight.
No - a Mayite fudge that resembles EEA+CU is the ONLY deal that can be agreed with EU and approved by Parliament.
There would probably not time for anything to happen if May’s deal is voted down. May resigns. A Leaver would take over. They would offer the EU a choice between CETA with no backstop or no deal. Which is what May should be doing now.
If the EU accept, there will be a short delay in A50 to get it done. If they refuse, there is no deal. In neither scenario would the DUP be upset - Leavers have no intention of accepting the backstop.
If May got Chequers agreed by the EU basically unamended, she would still probably lose in the HoC but she might have a chance. But May’s sellout fudge will be voted down. Easily. The moment she concedes on the customs partnership and agrees the customs union it is all over. No trade policy is a red line for plenty of Tories.
Why would the EU accept, and even extend A50? Brexiters would need to definitively resolve the Irish border issue which they have completely failed to do so far.
Simply saying the Irish border is not an issue does not mean it is no longer an issue.
It is not an issue and not the UK’s job to resolve it.
If the EU insist on the NI backstop, there will be no deal. If they want to be sensible, it can be solved. But after no deal there is going to be a soft border whether they like it or not and at that time their leverage is gone. That is why no deal is probably the best tactical outcome for the UK.
As I said, saying it is not an issue doesn’t make it go away.
Why would a No Deal (the Hardest of Brexits) mean a soft border?
Because the UK will not impose a hard border - they will simply say that they are content to recognise EU compliant goods. And the ROI will not unilaterally impose a border because they will look ridiculous. So the customs services of UK and ROI will simply have no choice but to co-operate to put in place exactly the soft border systems that the ERG have suggested.
That is why the NI border issue has always been a bluff. Time to call.
It's quite entertaing to watch all the Mercedes fans who whinged endlessly about Ferrari team orders tying themselves in knots about how Mercedes are quite right to use them themselves to let a slower car in front of a faster car...
It's quite entertaing to watch all the Mercedes fans who whinged endlessly about Ferrari team orders tying themselves in knots about how Mercedes are quite right to use them themselves to let a slower car in front of a faster car...
There are some of us who whinge about team orders, irrespective of where they originate. That said, I do understand it’s a business as much as a sport.
I assume your just half joking with your first line, obviously Labour do have many older voters and some of these will die but given the age distribution of voters for both parties then more Conservative 2017 voters won't be around for the next election than Labour 2017. Without any vote changing the Tories are already behind from the off. Which means just to match Labour in terms of vote retention they have to keep a higher percentage of their still living voters on board than Labour do.
The problem is say for example with lying to the students, it seems to be mainly right wing Conservative voters who are middle aged and older who feel they were lied to. It might be an age thing but I think younger Labour voters understand the idea that the opposition doesn't get to implement its manifesto.
Ummm...I work with students. Every day. I do a lot of the school's UCAS stuff. I do the mock Oxbridge interviews. I do personal statements and advise on courses. I guide them through finance. And with a lot of them, I act as a referee after they have left so they remain in semi-regular contact through email.
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
Which pledge to students has Corbyn abandoned?
The one about 'dealing with' existing debt, which his HE spokesperson said meant writing it off (although Corbyn himself didn't say that so explicitly).
Although I think he has quietly dropped his support for free university tuition as well.
I certainly have not heard that he has dropped that pledge. Very unwise for him to do so I would have thought.
Here's the initial commitment, appropriately hedged by Rayner although her deputy was a lot less careful:
Reading both sets of comments , it did not strike me that a firm commitment to writing off all debt had been made. 'Ambition' is far from that - and Corbyn did specifically refer to extending repayment periods etc. I would,however, be surprised if the commitment to abolish Tuition Fees were to be abandoned.
Be real - Labour were more than happy to give the impression they would do this.
Considering the other Trillion in spending they had planned whats a few more billion here and there?
Re. the eternal 'will SLab ever be able to give the EssEnPee a doing again?' question, they certainly seem well poised to put a united and coherent campaign together.
It's quite entertaing to watch all the Mercedes fans who whinged endlessly about Ferrari team orders tying themselves in knots about how Mercedes are quite right to use them themselves to let a slower car in front of a faster car...
There are some of us who whinge about team orders, irrespective of where they originate. That said, I do understand it’s a business as much as a sport.
It's quite entertaing to watch all the Mercedes fans who whinged endlessly about Ferrari team orders tying themselves in knots about how Mercedes are quite right to use them themselves to let a slower car in front of a faster car...
There are some of us who whinge about team orders, irrespective of where they originate. That said, I do understand it’s a business as much as a sport.
Not a fan of them myself.
I just think the contortions are amusing.
Given your reports of the contortions you engage in with your organ.....
Ouch: Bottas asks which order the Mercedes drivers are going to finish the race in. He's told "positions will stay as they are, we will talk about it after the race".
It's quite entertaing to watch all the Mercedes fans who whinged endlessly about Ferrari team orders tying themselves in knots about how Mercedes are quite right to use them themselves to let a slower car in front of a faster car...
There are some of us who whinge about team orders, irrespective of where they originate. That said, I do understand it’s a business as much as a sport.
Not a fan of them myself.
I just think the contortions are amusing.
Given your reports of the contortions you engage in with your organ.....
I never perform contortions on the organ. Lots of nice combination buttons for me to use. That means I always come in hole...
At a human level I must say I do feel sorry for her, and some respect. Most PMs give the impression that they're enjoying themselves a bit - Cameron was serene, Brown saw himself as sturdy saviour, Blair loved trying to change opinion, Douglas Home had nothing to prove. But May seems to be just morosely struggling on out of a sense of duty. There are worse things in politics.
Historians will have fun debating whether May was an unlucky PM or not.
She doesn't seem to have much as far as I can see.
But I agree, on a human level, one feels sympathy. Who hasn't had a big event or presentation and felt that horrible tickle in the back of the throat two days before and gone 'Oh no.'?
I suspect that it is a combination of nerves and ACE inhibitors. a nagging cough is a fairly frequent side effect, and they are the preferred anti hypertensives for diabetics.
Morphines are very good cough suppressants, and would most likely work, perhaps at risk of aTrainspotting type speech.
Comments
Now, admittedly, the post-election poll found 10% of 2015 Labour voters going over to the Tories - so the net movement between Tories and Labour wasn't that big. But the 19th April poll found that 13% of 2015 Labour voters were already saying then that they planned to switch to the Tories - so the Tory->Lab converts happened during the campaign, whereas the Lab->Tory converts had already happened.
Post-election: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/kug7qzc4lh/InternalResults_170615_VoteSwitchers_W.pdf
19 April: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/04xxn42p3e/TimesResults_170419_VI_Trackers_GE_W.pdf
' The (Conservative) party now receives more money in donations from deceased members than it does from living ones. '
And as DD says today, it is quite easy for the ERG to vote down a deal and not trigger a general election. The only real risk of an election is May selling out on the NI backstop. Then, the DUP will no confidence the Government.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
That of course assumes they win all their SNP targets and a PC seat, if they fail to gain those nationalist seats then Labour need a 6.09% swing from the Tories on 2017 and a lead over the Tories of 10% to get a majority with the key Tory seat they need to take to win a majority Altrincham and Sale West.
https://twitter.com/mrdavidstroud/status/1046294375934947328?s=21
Ball in the EU's court. Which is what explains May not budging off Chequers.
"How many more wasted months are Tory MPs going to tolerate?"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/29/times-mrs-may-prime-minister-real-source-tory-partys-woes/
Believe me when I say they were pissed off when he admitted he couldn't have done what he promised if he had won. It will be much harder to pull that trick twice.
Does this mean Labour will lose? Certainly not. Does it mean I think they are being complacent? Yes.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1046300224057167872
Although I think he has quietly dropped his support for free university tuition as well.
The only sustainable Brexit is a Norway style one with a Canada style FTA the longer term aim
When quizzed by a BBC correspondent about her sore throat during the previous conference speech, Theresa May's cough returned.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-birmingham-45680850/bbc-correspondent-puts-coughing-jinx-on-theresa-may
Or the more commonly used definition of a highly unlikely but just about plausible event? Such as it is a miracle Leicester won the Premier League, or it is a miracle that Corbyn became leader.
In these days where most grow up without a religious education, I would suspect the latter.
She would be presumably be replaced by a Harder Brexiter - Davis, Johnson, or perhaps Javid, and a swing to CETA+ - however that still needs to get through Parliament.
How would it, given DUP would presumably vote against as would soft Tories (and all Opposition parties).
We would then have a constitutional and financial crisis, hurtling toward No Deal with no obvious solution in sight.
No - a Mayite fudge that resembles EEA+CU is the ONLY deal that can be agreed with EU and approved by Parliament.
Surely he means a tunnel? A bridge would be liable to be out of action on many a day in winter due to high winds in the Irish Sea surely?
Everyone knows those long flights can often lead to a bug, as the air is recycled around the cabin.
If the EU accept, there will be a short delay in A50 to get it done. If they refuse, there is no deal. In neither scenario would the DUP be upset - Leavers have no intention of accepting the backstop.
If May got Chequers agreed by the EU basically unamended, she would still probably lose in the HoC but she might have a chance. But May’s sellout fudge will be voted down. Easily. The moment she concedes on the customs partnership and agrees the customs union it is all over. No trade policy is a red line for plenty of Tories.
You are quite right about how much ridicule you attracted. So you deserve a fair hearing on your other prediction. However, at the moment it's hard to see the SNP going significantly backwards. Labour are just too tainted and tired in Scotland. Look at the mess that is their leadership.
I think with the SNP when a collapse comes it could be quite sudden, as (like the Tories in England) they have survived faute de mieux rather than in their own strength. But it may be a while before it happens.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40547740
And here is Corbyn rowing back on it:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40697326
Fully agree with your second sentence.
She doesn't seem to have much as far as I can see.
But I agree, on a human level, one feels sympathy. Who hasn't had a big event or presentation and felt that horrible tickle in the back of the throat two days before and gone 'Oh no.'?
I genuinely believe that if Labour appears competitive at the next election across GB as a whole , it will shift votes from the SNP to Labour. In 2017 the Corbyn surge lagged in Scotland, and had the campaign continued for a further week Labour would have ended up with circa 15 seats - at SNP expense.
Simply saying the Irish border is not an issue does not mean it is no longer an issue.
But just to blithely say it will be abolished without any meaningful suggestions of how it will be replaced, and worse, to say that the existing will be instantly cancelled as part of a naked push for votes before admitting it wasn't true - well, that was just idiocy.
If the EU insist on the NI backstop, there will be no deal. If they want to be sensible, it can be solved. But after no deal there is going to be a soft border whether they like it or not and at that time their leverage is gone. That is why no deal is probably the best tactical outcome for the UK.
If I were fierce, and bald, and short of breath,
I’d live with scarlet Majors at the base,
And speed glum heroes up the line to death.
You’d see me with my puffy petulant face,
Guzzling and gulping in the best hotel,
Reading the Roll of Honour. ‘Poor young chap,’
I’d say—‘I used to know his father well.
Yes, we’ve lost heavily in this last scrap.’
And when the war was done and youth stone dead,
I’d toddle safely home and die — in bed.
But I must get some work done now unfortunately - not enough hours in the working week!
The likelihood of having such conversations after last year's unfortunate mishap on social care is the same as the likelihood of me getting a threesome with Maria Sharapova and Margot Robbie.
I would,however, be surprised if the commitment to abolish Tuition Fees were to be abandoned.
Why would a No Deal (the Hardest of Brexits) mean a soft border?
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-tuition-fee-debt-jeremy-corbyn_uk_597719a5e4b0c95f375e31aa
And that was certainly how most students took it. Even though Corbyn and Rayner left wriggle room, it was a bit of a case of a nod's as good as a wink to a blind horse.
I'll get my coat...
Just requiring a highly improbable combination of circumstances.
And would that be an Angels’ Triangle ?
https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/labour-rallies-new-scottish-opinion-poll
Certainly some people were predicting results in that sort of range.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/scottish-news/1112957/the-scottish-suns-resident-politics-experts-predict-winners-in-all-59-scottish-seats-for-general-election-2017/
No there isn't a law it will be repeated, but the point remains that they did unexpectedly well despite not great polling leading up to the GE, so though there is no law it is also not certain the polling means they won't be able to take more than 1 seat.
That is why the NI border issue has always been a bluff. Time to call.
As I said, saying it is not an issue doesn’t make it go away.
Why would a No Deal (the Hardest of Brexits) mean a soft border?
Who is going to build the hard border?
The UK won't, the RoI have said they won't.
So that leaves the EU...BUILD THE WALL!!!
That said, I do understand it’s a business as much as a sport.
Considering the other Trillion in spending they had planned whats a few more billion here and there?
I thought Chequers WAS the compromise?
Why would a No Deal (the Hardest of Brexits) mean a soft border?
Who is going to build the hard border?
The UK won't, the RoI have said they won't.
So that leaves the EU...BUILD THE WALL!!!
...and make the UK pay for it?
'The So Solid Crew '
https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-so-solid-crew/
I just think the contortions are amusing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/45189675?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5bb0c24a4332820660fff46c&&2018-09-30T12:32:29+00:00&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:5e49100e-1861-412f-96e8-7b6a103f34f7&pinned_post_asset_id=5bb0c24a4332820660fff46c&pinned_post_type=share
If that journalist never returns, we will know Putin has no sense of humour...
Bottas asks which order the Mercedes drivers are going to finish the race in. He's told "positions will stay as they are, we will talk about it after the race".
Morphines are very good cough suppressants, and would most likely work, perhaps at risk of aTrainspotting type speech.
https://youtu.be/RCxgqHqakXc
And the reasons?, there are no reasons. Who needs reasons when you have Brexit?