A very deliberately chosen photo by the Observer. Something quite humourless about the drabness of the black suits the grey hair Abbott's Friar Tuck haircut .....There's no point in being anti austerity if you look like a group of Jehovah's Witnesses.
Not for the first time, you're very keen to write Boris off. He's always bounced back and done better than forecast and I shouldn't be in the least surprised to see him bounce back and do better than is being forecast now. I shouldn't be in the least surprised, either, to discover that yesterday's poll was wrong about Theresa May: the poll figures look better for her than I suspect would be reflected in an actual vote. After all, it isn't only Conservative voters who will determine her fate, is it, it's the electorate as a whole and I suspect she has very little support beyond the Tory heartlands. She strikes me as as a decent woman who's doing her best but who is further out of her depth with every day that passes - and that's simply not good enough. She got the sympathy vote when the Europeans bullied her - but it was a weak position to be in, nonetheless. Can you imagine them bullying Margaret Thatcher like that? They wouldn't have lived to tell the tale.
You're entirely right, however, about the set at the Tory Conference. It will be as solid as the Rock of Gibraltar - but bluer!
It's a very long time since I posted on this site. I've been ill and have had to have heart surgery but am now much improved - and it will be a very long time before I grumble about the NHS again. They were quite wonderful and very kind with it. And reading this site was definitely therapeutic, for which thank you, all of you.
Welcome back.
And glad that this site helped you through the illness. I've seen all our rantings described as many things, but think this is a first for 'therapeutic'.
[Corbyn Supporter] "I support Corbyn and I'm sick of these MPs who don't follow our leader". Lets deselect them." [JC] "Don't deselect them. We are a broad church" [Corbyn Supporter] "we're deselecting anyone who doesn't do what the leader tells them to do"
I suspect that is correct -- there is a basic lack of arithmetical skills missing, so that the promises of a National Care Service or free University tuition or free childcare are just fanciful.
Does it concern you that the government has been less than forthright about the cost of its own flagship policy, Brexit? Depending which Conservatives you believe, whether we crash out or stay in will cost hundreds of billions of pounds. That would pay for a lot of train sets and water boards. Today's papers tell us Brexit is already costing £500 million a week and it's not even happened yet. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/britain-bill-brexit-hits-500-million-pounds-a-week
I would say that the initial costs of the National Care Service or Free University Tuition can be reasonably estimated from public data to within 10 per cent.
I would say the effects of Brexit cannot at the moment be even estimated without being reasonably certain what form Brexit will take.
However, as you have quoted 500 million pounds a week, please do summarise the order of magnitude calculation that gets us to this figure ?
I am afraid an answer such as "Go read the Guardian" gets minus points. If the figure is 500 million pounds a week, it should be possible for you to explain how the number is arrived it. (It is already a suspiciously nice and rounded-off number).
Overall, I am strongly in favour of politicians and commentators (whether left or right) having sufficient basic numeracy skills to be able to justify numbers that they quote, or being able to cost a policy (to say 20 per cent) and explain the costing to the public.
Because the very soul of the world is economic, and that the lowest abyss is not the absence of love, but the absence of the coin.
The cost of Brexit is placed at £500 million a week already -- this is not a forecast of how much it will cost after we leave, but an estimate of how much it is already costing us right now, based on comparing economic growth with our peers and past and finding the economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than expected. You can read the report here: https://www.cer.eu/insights/cost-brexit-june-2018
Its voodoo bullshit. Do you really believe that ceteris paribus if Remain had won and Osborne had remained Chancellor that the budget deficit would have fallen by as much as it already has plus another £26 bn on top?
It’s not impossible - though the model taking the US as 50% of the comparator suggests to me that it’s probably overestimating on that basis alone by around a third.
What is rather more alarming is what’s likely to happen next year.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Barnier has at least said he is willing to do a Canada style issue for GB, he has flat out rejected Chequers.
Regarding NI I would prefer the Boles solution of leaving via the EEA/EFTA route which would ensure no hard border in NI and then trying to negotiate a Canada style deal for the whole UK longer term
Blocking the whole thing because the NI solution is difficult isn't terribly wise. So something like Canada, and perhaps setting aside some (or all) of the Brexit 'fee' to find a NI solution. There has to be some sort of hardish border that would be acceptable. NI and Ireland are after all two different countries, there was always going to be some need to have something on the border. You could even subsidise cross-border trade to ease the hassles.
Boris is broadly along sensible lines, however he's two years too late. Running into the buffers is a bad plan, running into them and then pulling back is even worse. Chequers is better than both - just about. If Boris is serious about his last minute plan then he certainly shouldn't be using such careless language.
A Canada style Deal which avoids a hard border is what is needed but is easier said than done
But if everyone tries it's easily done which is why Enda Kenny was working on it.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
How long would it take to go from No Deal to a Canada Plus FTA?
It depends how long it takes emotions to cool. If people work hard on it and stop trying to mess around the other party it could be done very quickly. Within 2 years. If people don't want to cooperate then it might never happen.
And what would 2 years (your optimistic minimum) on no-deal do to the UK economy?
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Barnier has at least said he is willing to do a Canada style issue for GB, he has flat out rejected Chequers.
Regarding NI I would prefer the Boles solution of leaving via the EEA/EFTA route which would ensure no hard border in NI and then trying to negotiate a Canada style deal for the whole UK longer term
NI and Ireland are after all two different countries.
About 40% and rising of the NI population disagree.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Barnier has at least said he is willing to do a Canada style issue for GB, he has flat out rejected Chequers.
Regarding NI I would prefer the Boles solution of leaving via the EEA/EFTA route which would ensure no hard border in NI and then trying to negotiate a Canada style deal for the whole UK longer term
Blocking the whole thing because the NI solution is difficult isn't terribly wise. So something like Canada, and perhaps setting aside some (or all) of the Brexit 'fee' to find a NI solution. There has to be some sort of hardish border that would be acceptable. NI and Ireland are after all two different countries, there was always going to be some need to have something on the border. You could even subsidise cross-border trade to ease the hassles.
Boris is broadly along sensible lines, however he's two years too late. Running into the buffers is a bad plan, running into them and then pulling back is even worse. Chequers is better than both - just about. If Boris is serious about his last minute plan then he certainly shouldn't be using such careless language.
A Canada style Deal which avoids a hard border is what is needed but is easier said than done
But if everyone tries it's easily done which is why Enda Kenny was working on it.
It would certainly help if Varadkar was a bit more enthusiastic
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Barnier has at least said he is willing to do a Canada style issue for GB, he has flat out rejected Chequers.
Regarding NI I would prefer the Boles solution of leaving via the EEA/EFTA route which would ensure no hard border in NI and then trying to negotiate a Canada style deal for the whole UK longer term
Blocking the whole thing because the NI solution is difficult isn't terribly wise. So something like Canada, and perhaps setting aside some (or all) of the Brexit 'fee' to find a NI solution. There has to be some sort of hardish border that would be acceptable. NI and Ireland are after all two different countries, there was always going to be some need to have something on the border. You could even subsidise cross-border trade to ease the hassles.
Boris is broadly along sensible lines, however he's two years too late. Running into the buffers is a bad plan, running into them and then pulling back is even worse. Chequers is better than both - just about. If Boris is serious about his last minute plan then he certainly shouldn't be using such careless language.
A Canada style Deal which avoids a hard border is what is needed but is easier said than done
But if everyone tries it's easily done which is why Enda Kenny was working on it.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
How long would it take to go from No Deal to a Canada Plus FTA?
It depends how long it takes emotions to cool. If people work hard on it and stop trying to mess around the other party it could be done very quickly. Within 2 years. If people don't want to cooperate then it might never happen.
And what would 2 years (your optimistic minimum) on no-deal do to the UK economy?
Probably not much. Because I expect that cooler heads would put in a last minute micro deal for a transition. Currently Ireland are playing a game of chicken. They don't want a border so are threatening a rock hard border to avoid a border. Its nonsense and we all know it but they think we won't call them on it. If we do then I think they will blink.
Alternatively we might have a recession. But it won't be the end of the world.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Barnier has at least said he is willing to do a Canada style issue for GB, he has flat out rejected Chequers.
Regarding NI I would prefer the Boles solution of leaving via the EEA/EFTA route which would ensure no hard border in NI and then trying to negotiate a Canada style deal for the whole UK longer term
NI and Ireland are after all two different countries.
About 40% and rising of the NI population disagree.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
How long would it take to go from No Deal to a Canada Plus FTA?
It depends how long it takes emotions to cool. If people work hard on it and stop trying to mess around the other party it could be done very quickly. Within 2 years. If people don't want to cooperate then it might never happen.
And what would 2 years (your optimistic minimum) on no-deal do to the UK economy?
Probably not much. Because I expect that cooler heads would put in a last minute micro deal for a transition. Currently Ireland are playing a game of chicken. They don't want a border so are threatening a rock hard border to avoid a border. Its nonsense and we all know it but they think we won't call them on it. If we do then I think they will blink.
Alternatively we might have a recession. But it won't be the end of the world.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Barnier has at least said he is willing to do a Canada style issue for GB, he has flat out rejected Chequers.
Regarding NI I would prefer the Boles solution of leaving via the EEA/EFTA route which would ensure no hard border in NI and then trying to negotiate a Canada style deal for the whole UK longer term
NI and Ireland are after all two different countries.
About 40% and rising of the NI population disagree.
They're wrong.
They'll fight you for it.
If it comes to that.
Nothing's too high a price to pay for Brexit.
My grandchildren's job and other opportunities are. IMHO. Yes, like one of their uncle’s they might find business opportunities outside the EU, but if he can’t get some of the kit he needs, or the price rises then he’ll have problems too.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Barnier has at least said he is willing to do a Canada style issue for GB, he has flat out rejected Chequers.
Regarding NI I would prefer the Boles solution of leaving via the EEA/EFTA route which would ensure no hard border in NI and then trying to negotiate a Canada style deal for the whole UK longer term
Blocking the whole thing because the NI solution is difficult isn't terribly wise. So something like Canada, and perhaps setting aside some (or all) of the Brexit 'fee' to find a NI solution. There has to be some sort of hardish border that would be acceptable. NI and Ireland are after all two different countries, there was always going to be some need to have something on the border. You could even subsidise cross-border trade to ease the hassles.
Boris is broadly along sensible lines, however he's two years too late. Running into the buffers is a bad plan, running into them and then pulling back is even worse. Chequers is better than both - just about. If Boris is serious about his last minute plan then he certainly shouldn't be using such careless language.
A Canada style Deal which avoids a hard border is what is needed but is easier said than done
But if everyone tries it's easily done which is why Enda Kenny was working on it.
It would certainly help if Varadkar was a bit more enthusiastic
He's bluffing because he thinks he won't be called.
As a poker player I say our only choices are to call his bluff or fold. We can't negotiate.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
Yep. This is completely correct. Unfortunately the weakness of May now means there is no choice but to leave with no deal to neutralise the NI issue.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
How long would it take to go from No Deal to a Canada Plus FTA?
It depends how long it takes emotions to cool. If people work hard on it and stop trying to mess around the other party it could be done very quickly. Within 2 years. If people don't want to cooperate then it might never happen.
And what would 2 years (your optimistic minimum) on no-deal do to the UK economy?
Probably not much. Because I expect that cooler heads would put in a last minute micro deal for a transition. Currently Ireland are playing a game of chicken. They don't want a border so are threatening a rock hard border to avoid a border. Its nonsense and we all know it but they think we won't call them on it. If we do then I think they will blink.
Alternatively we might have a recession. But it won't be the end of the world.
Not the end of the world. Phew, for a minute there I thought it was a serious problem.
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
Not for the first time, you're very keen to write Boris off. He's always bounced back and done better than forecast and I shouldn't be in the least surprised to see him bounce back and do better than is being forecast now. I shouldn't be in the least surprised, either, to discover that yesterday's poll was wrong about Theresa May: the poll figures look better for her than I suspect would be reflected in an actual vote. After all, it isn't only Conservative voters who will determine her fate, is it, it's the electorate as a whole and I suspect she has very little support beyond the Tory heartlands. She strikes me as as a decent woman who's doing her best but who is further out of her depth with every day that passes - and that's simply not good enough. She got the sympathy vote when the Europeans bullied her - but it was a weak position to be in, nonetheless. Can you imagine them bullying Margaret Thatcher like that? They wouldn't have lived to tell the tale.
You're entirely right, however, about the set at the Tory Conference. It will be as solid as the Rock of Gibraltar - but bluer!
It's a very long time since I posted on this site. I've been ill and have had to have heart surgery but am now much improved - and it will be a very long time before I grumble about the NHS again. They were quite wonderful and very kind with it. And reading this site was definitely therapeutic, for which thank you, all of you.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Barnier has at least said he is willing to do a Canada style issue for GB, he has flat out rejected Chequers.
Regarding NI I would prefer the Boles solution of leaving via the EEA/EFTA route which would ensure no hard border in NI and then trying to negotiate a Canada style deal for the whole UK longer term
Blocking the whole thing because the NI solution is difficult isn't terribly wise. So something like Canada, and perhaps setting aside some (or all) of the Brexit 'fee' to find a NI solution. There has to be some sort of hardish border that would be acceptable. NI and Ireland are after all two different countries, there was always going to be some need to have something on the border. You could even subsidise cross-border trade to ease the hassles.
Boris is broadly along sensible lines, however he's two years too late. Running into the buffers is a bad plan, running into them and then pulling back is even worse. Chequers is better than both - just about. If Boris is serious about his last minute plan then he certainly shouldn't be using such careless language.
A Canada style Deal which avoids a hard border is what is needed but is easier said than done
But if everyone tries it's easily done which is why Enda Kenny was working on it.
It would certainly help if Varadkar was a bit more enthusiastic
He's bluffing because he thinks he won't be called.
As a poker player I say our only choices are to call his bluff or fold. We can't negotiate.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Barnier has at least said he is willing to do a Canada style issue for GB, he has flat out rejected Chequers.
Regarding NI I would prefer the Boles solution of leaving via the EEA/EFTA route which would ensure no hard border in NI and then trying to negotiate a Canada style deal for the whole UK longer term
Blocking the whole thing because the NI solution is difficult isn't terribly wise. So something like Canada, and perhaps setting aside some (or all) of the Brexit 'fee' to find a NI solution. There has to be some sort of hardish border that would be acceptable. NI and Ireland are after all two different countries, there was always going to be some need to have something on the border. You could even subsidise cross-border trade to ease the hassles.
Boris is broadly along sensible lines, however he's two years too late. Running into the buffers is a bad plan, running into them and then pulling back is even worse. Chequers is better than both - just about. If Boris is serious about his last minute plan then he certainly shouldn't be using such careless language.
A Canada style Deal which avoids a hard border is what is needed but is easier said than done
But if everyone tries it's easily done which is why Enda Kenny was working on it.
It would certainly help if Varadkar was a bit more enthusiastic
Oh, so he is supposed to ignore his own country's national interests and importantly, as for all politicians, the electorate and suck up Chequers. If the situation was reversed, TMay would be literally, lynched...
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
And this is the point where the whole enterprise falls down. You cannot square that particular circle, and it seems clear that half the cabinet don't actually know how WTO works...
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
Yep. This is completely correct. Unfortunately the weakness of May now means there is no choice but to leave with no deal to neutralise the NI issue.
I simply do not see a no deal outcome. Looking at the present political climate and opinions by MP's if there is no deal there will be another referendum
I suspect that is correct -- there is a basic lack of arithmetical skills missing, so that the promises of a National Care Service or free University tuition or free childcare are just fanciful.
Does it concern you that the government has been less than forthright about the cost of its own flagship policy, Brexit? Depending which Conservatives you believe, whether we crash out or stay in will cost hundreds of billions of pounds. That would pay for a lot of train sets and water boards. Today's papers tell us Brexit is already costing £500 million a week and it's not even happened yet. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/britain-bill-brexit-hits-500-million-pounds-a-week
I would say that the initial costs of the National Care Service or Free University Tuition can be reasonably estimated from public data to within 10 per cent.
I would say the effects of Brexit cannot at the moment be even estimated without being reasonably certain what form Brexit will take.
However, as you have quoted 500 million pounds a week, please do summarise the order of magnitude calculation that gets us to this figure ?
I am afraid an answer such as "Go read the Guardian" gets minus points. If the figure is 500 million pounds a week, it should be possible for you to explain how the number is arrived it. (It is already a suspiciously nice and rounded-off number).
Overall, I am strongly in favour of politicians and commentators (whether left or right) having sufficient basic numeracy skills to be able to justify numbers that they quote, or being able to cost a policy (to say 20 per cent) and explain the costing to the public.
Because the very soul of the world is economic, and that the lowest abyss is not the absence of love, but the absence of the coin.
The cost of Brexit is placed at £500 million a week already -- this is not a forecast of how much it will cost after we leave, but an estimate of how much it is already costing us right now, based on comparing economic growth with our peers and past and finding the economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than expected. You can read the report here: https://www.cer.eu/insights/cost-brexit-june-2018
High Finance and Round Figures.
"Now Mr Brickworth is the only man there who knows what he is talking about. He distrusts that round figure of 10 million pounds. Why should it come to exactly that ? ... But Mr Brickworth does not know where to begin. The other members could not read the blueprint even he referred to it. He would have to begin by explaining what a nuclear reactor is. And no-one there would admit that he did not already now. Better to say nothing"
That is how figures like 10 million (or 500 million) pounds enter the discourse.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
Yep. This is completely correct. Unfortunately the weakness of May now means there is no choice but to leave with no deal to neutralise the NI issue.
No Deal means Brexit will be reversed, it then just becomes a question of when not if
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
How long would it take to go from No Deal to a Canada Plus FTA?
It depends how long it takes emotions to cool. If people work hard on it and stop trying to mess around the other party it could be done very quickly. Within 2 years. If people don't want to cooperate then it might never happen.
And what would 2 years (your optimistic minimum) on no-deal do to the UK economy?
Probably not much. Because I expect that cooler heads would put in a last minute micro deal for a transition. Currently Ireland are playing a game of chicken. They don't want a border so are threatening a rock hard border to avoid a border. Its nonsense and we all know it but they think we won't call them on it. If we do then I think they will blink.
Alternatively we might have a recession. But it won't be the end of the world.
Not the end of the world. Phew, for a minute there I thought it was a serious problem.
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
And this is the point where the whole enterprise falls down. You cannot square that particular circle, and it seems clear that half the cabinet don't actually know how WTO works...
Indeed, which means the cave will almost certainly come before Christmas
I suspect that is correct -- there is a basic lack of arithmetical skills missing, so that the promises of a National Care Service or free University tuition or free childcare are just fanciful.
Does it concern you that the government has been less than forthright about the cost of its own flagship policy, Brexit? Depending which Conservatives you believe, whether we crash out or stay in will cost hundreds of billions of pounds. That would pay for a lot of train sets and water boards. Today's papers tell us Brexit is already costing £500 million a week and it's not even happened yet. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/britain-bill-brexit-hits-500-million-pounds-a-week
However, as you have quoted 500 million pounds a week, please do summarise the order of magnitude calculation that gets us to this figure ?
I am afraid an answer such as "Go read the Guardian" gets minus points. If the figure is 500 million pounds a week, it should be possible for you to explain how the number is arrived it. (It is already a suspiciously nice and rounded-off number).
Overall, I am strongly in favour of politicians and commentators (whether left or right) having sufficient basic numeracy skills to be able to justify numbers that they quote, or being able to cost a policy (to say 20 per cent) and explain the costing to the public.
Because the very soul of the world is economic, and that the lowest abyss is not the absence of love, but the absence of the coin.
The cost of Brexit is placed at £500 million a week already -- this is not a forecast of how much it will cost after we leave, but an estimate of how much it is already costing us right now, based on comparing economic growth with our peers and past and finding the economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than expected. You can read the report here: https://www.cer.eu/insights/cost-brexit-june-2018
High Finance and Round Figures.
"Now Mr Brickworth is the only man there who knows what he is talking about. He distrusts that round figure of 10 million pounds. Why should it come to exactly that ? ... But Mr Brickworth does not know where to begin. The other members could not read the blueprint even he referred to it. He would have to begin by explaining what a nuclear reactor is. And no-one there would admit that he did not already now. Better to say nothing"
That is how figures like 10 million (or 500 million) pounds enter the discourse.
Someone else remembers the late, great C. Northcote Parkinson!
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
She really had no choice as I think we both agree no deal is a negotiating tactic and not sustainable. She could hardly give an inch to a second referendum at this time
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
And this is the point where the whole enterprise falls down. You cannot square that particular circle, and it seems clear that half the cabinet don't actually know how WTO works...
Half the posters on PB don’t either. WTO doesn’t mandate a hard border. But another WTO member could go to dispute under MFN if the UK grants preferential access for, say, the RoI’s widgets and not the US’s.
If it so ruled (not a certainty but likely), the UK would then need to institute checks on both sets of widgets or neither.
Interesting that TM had a love in with Ruth Davidson yesterday giving Ruth baby presents
I have little doubt they were talking of decapitating Boris and I would be very surprised if Ruth doesn't launch a full on broadside against Boris in her conference speech. He disgusts her
If she or anyone else uses a platform speech to attack Boris personally it will be a big mistake. The hall is full of Tory members many of whom support him. It is just a sign of weakness for May. She should stick to policy, but obviously she can’t do that when it comes to Brexit.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Barnier has at least said he is willing to do a Canada style issue for GB, he has flat out rejected Chequers.
Regarding NI I would prefer the Boles solution of leaving via the EEA/EFTA route which would ensure no hard border in NI and then trying to negotiate a Canada style deal for the whole UK longer term
NI and Ireland are after all two different countries.
About 40% and rising of the NI population disagree.
Of course, and if a suitable majority choose to become one nation then I'd be the first to congratulate them. They've not done so though, and we need to protect that status until it changes.
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
It is possible. Go and read what the WTO rules say
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
Yep. This is completely correct. Unfortunately the weakness of May now means there is no choice but to leave with no deal to neutralise the NI issue.
No Deal means Brexit will be reversed, it then just becomes a question of when not if
No deal means Brexit can never be reversed - the UK would have to reapply for membership from scratch on current rules (eg Euro). Not a chance in hell.
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
And this is the point where the whole enterprise falls down. You cannot square that particular circle, and it seems clear that half the cabinet don't actually know how WTO works...
Half the posters on PB don’t either. WTO doesn’t mandate a hard border. But another WTO member could go to dispute under MFN if the UK grants preferential access for, say, the RoI’s widgets and not the US’s.
If it so ruled (not a certainty but likely), the UK would then need to institute checks on both sets of widgets or neither.
Sure. You need checks (the definition of a hard border)
But they don’t need to be at the border. In the US, for example, I’ve driven past immigration checkpoints 50 miles inside the US.
An electronic system is, and always has been, the best way to solve this issue.
It’s wankers who thought they could risk the settlement in NI to overturn Brexit who have caused the problem
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
Yep. This is completely correct. Unfortunately the weakness of May now means there is no choice but to leave with no deal to neutralise the NI issue.
No Deal means Brexit will be reversed, it then just becomes a question of when not if
No deal means Brexit can never be reversed - the UK would have to reapply for membership from scratch on current rules (eg Euro). Not a chance in hell.
With respect no deal will see a rebellion across the HOC and emergency legislation to stop it probably by referendum
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
And this is the point where the whole enterprise falls down. You cannot square that particular circle, and it seems clear that half the cabinet don't actually know how WTO works...
Half the posters on PB don’t either. WTO doesn’t mandate a hard border. But another WTO member could go to dispute under MFN if the UK grants preferential access for, say, the RoI’s widgets and not the US’s.
If it so ruled (not a certainty but likely), the UK would then need to institute checks on both sets of widgets or neither.
Sure. You need checks (the definition of a hard border)
But they don’t need to be at the border. In the US, for example, I’ve driven past immigration checkpoints 50 miles inside the US.
An electronic system is, and always has been, the best way to solve this issue.
It’s wankers who thought they could risk the settlement in NI to overturn Brexit who have caused the problem
I have no doubt technology will provide an answer in the future. Problem is we are not in the future yet.
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
She really had no choice as I think we both agree no deal is a negotiating tactic and not sustainable. She could hardly give an inch to a second referendum at this time
It is a negotiating tactic, she neither wants No Deal nor would she last as PM if there was No Deal
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
And this is the point where the whole enterprise falls down. You cannot square that particular circle, and it seems clear that half the cabinet don't actually know how WTO works...
Half the posters on PB don’t either. WTO doesn’t mandate a hard border. But another WTO member could go to dispute under MFN if the UK grants preferential access for, say, the RoI’s widgets and not the US’s.
If it so ruled (not a certainty but likely), the UK would then need to institute checks on both sets of widgets or neither.
Not true.
WTO permits deals to be made and that doesn't violate MFN rules.
I agree that May's inflexibility and a likely path towards no deal almost certainly ultimately begets another referendum (and a desperate ask to delay / defer A50), especially if public opinion remains against this (with the opposition to no deal almost certainly increasing as people get nervous and we get closer to the deadline); plus it is very clear that May’s current line on the no deal option is purely a (bad) negotiating tactic.
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
And this is the point where the whole enterprise falls down. You cannot square that particular circle, and it seems clear that half the cabinet don't actually know how WTO works...
Half the posters on PB don’t either. WTO doesn’t mandate a hard border. But another WTO member could go to dispute under MFN if the UK grants preferential access for, say, the RoI’s widgets and not the US’s.
If it so ruled (not a certainty but likely), the UK would then need to institute checks on both sets of widgets or neither.
Not true.
WTO permits deals to be made and that doesn't violate MFN rules.
So the solution is to reach a deal.
The solution to no deal is to reach a deal? We're through the looking glass now, people.
Interesting that TM had a love in with Ruth Davidson yesterday giving Ruth baby presents
I have little doubt they were talking of decapitating Boris and I would be very surprised if Ruth doesn't launch a full on broadside against Boris in her conference speech. He disgusts her
If she or anyone else uses a platform speech to attack Boris personally it will be a big mistake. The hall is full of Tory members many of whom support him. It is just a sign of weakness for May. She should stick to policy, but obviously she can’t do that when it comes to Brexit.
TM will be professional but Ruth Davidson popped him on Sky this morning and her address to conference may well include a full on attack against Boris. She and many of the female conservatives despise him and Ruth is the darling of the party
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
Yep. This is completely correct. Unfortunately the weakness of May now means there is no choice but to leave with no deal to neutralise the NI issue.
No Deal means Brexit will be reversed, it then just becomes a question of when not if
No deal means Brexit can never be reversed - the UK would have to reapply for membership from scratch on current rules (eg Euro). Not a chance in hell.
No it doesn't, No Deal given the polling opposing it means Brexit almost certainly will be reversed either at a second EU referendum or at the next general election. In any case while we would lose the rebate if we rejoined given that only applied to us we would not have to join the Euro given several EU members are still outside it.
The only sustainable Brexits are a Norway or Canada style deal
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
And this is the point where the whole enterprise falls down. You cannot square that particular circle, and it seems clear that half the cabinet don't actually know how WTO works...
Half the posters on PB don’t either. WTO doesn’t mandate a hard border. But another WTO member could go to dispute under MFN if the UK grants preferential access for, say, the RoI’s widgets and not the US’s.
If it so ruled (not a certainty but likely), the UK would then need to institute checks on both sets of widgets or neither.
Not true.
WTO permits deals to be made and that doesn't violate MFN rules.
So the solution is to reach a deal.
We were talking about no deal WTO. Of course deals can be made but no one least of all the government knows which one we might end up with.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
Yep. This is completely correct. Unfortunately the weakness of May now means there is no choice but to leave with no deal to neutralise the NI issue.
No Deal means Brexit will be reversed, it then just becomes a question of when not if
No deal means Brexit can never be reversed - the UK would have to reapply for membership from scratch on current rules (eg Euro). Not a chance in hell.
With respect no deal will see a rebellion across the HOC and emergency legislation to stop it probably by referendum
That may be true - but what I was saying is that if we do leave on 31 March 2019 with no deal there is no way we can rejoin. The whole accession process would need to be run and every opt out would be off the table - the EU would probably insist on is joining the Euro if we want to rejoin. It can just never happen. That is why leavers are willing to risk no deal. They know it will be permanent.
Will Parliament stop no deal before it happens? That is another quesion but I don’t think so. Right now, May is more likely to acheive no deal and will be the one to say there was no choice.
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
And this is the point where the whole enterprise falls down. You cannot square that particular circle, and it seems clear that half the cabinet don't actually know how WTO works...
Half the posters on PB don’t either. WTO doesn’t mandate a hard border. But another WTO member could go to dispute under MFN if the UK grants preferential access for, say, the RoI’s widgets and not the US’s.
If it so ruled (not a certainty but likely), the UK would then need to institute checks on both sets of widgets or neither.
Sure. You need checks (the definition of a hard border)
But they don’t need to be at the border. In the US, for example, I’ve driven past immigration checkpoints 50 miles inside the US.
An electronic system is, and always has been, the best way to solve this issue.
It’s wankers who thought they could risk the settlement in NI to overturn Brexit who have caused the problem
I have no doubt technology will provide an answer in the future. Problem is we are not in the future yet.
Well it works well in places like Canada and the US. But perhaps we could profitably have spent the 2 years exploring the option in cooperation with our partners in the RoI
On the next election, the key numbers from 2017 were
- Con 42.4% - Lab 40% - LD 7.9% - UKIP 1.8%
Subsequently, I agree that Corbyn has lost support, some to Lib Dems certainly. However, he has also probably picked up support from non voters who now think he could win.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
Putting all together, the next election is still a dead heat. Probably the “real” number today is something like - Con 39.5 - Lab 39 - LD 10 - UKIP 4
We can rule out any early election. Only Labour is in any sense ready for one.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
Yep. This is completely correct. Unfortunately the weakness of May now means there is no choice but to leave with no deal to neutralise the NI issue.
No Deal means Brexit will be reversed, it then just becomes a question of when not if
No deal means Brexit can never be reversed - the UK would have to reapply for membership from scratch on current rules (eg Euro). Not a chance in hell.
With respect no deal will see a rebellion across the HOC and emergency legislation to stop it probably by referendum
Exactly. That is why Labour remainers - and maybe a few Tory Europhiles as well - will never support any deal May comes up with - they plan to use the threat of no deal to force another referendum against a background of political crisis.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
Yep. This is completely correct. Unfortunately the weakness of May now means there is no choice but to leave with no deal to neutralise the NI issue.
No Deal means Brexit will be reversed, it then just becomes a question of when not if
No deal means Brexit can never be reversed - the UK would have to reapply for membership from scratch on current rules (eg Euro). Not a chance in hell.
With respect no deal will see a rebellion across the HOC and emergency legislation to stop it probably by referendum
That may be true - but what I was saying is that if we do leave on 31 March 2019 with no deal there is no way we can rejoin. The whole accession process would need to be run and every opt out would be off the table - the EU would probably insist on is joining the Euro if we want to rejoin. It can just never happen. That is why leavers are willing to risk no deal. They know it will be permanent.
Will Parliament stop no deal before it happens? That is another quesion but I don’t think so. Right now, May is more likely to acheive no deal and will be the one to say there was no choice.
On the next election, the key numbers from 2017 were
- Con 42.4% - Lab 40% - LD 7.9% - UKIP 1.8%
Subsequently, I agree that Corbyn has lost support, some to Lib Dems certainly. However, he has also probably picked up support from non voters who now think he could win.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
Putting all together, the next election is still a dead heat. Probably the “real” number today is something like - Con 39.5 - Lab 39 - LD 10 - UKIP 4
We can rule out any early election. Only Labour is in any sense ready for one.
On those numbers Corbyn becomes PM propped up by the SNP and reliant on the LDs to get any legislation through
Haven't there been polls showing Labour with a lead as well?
As far I can see it is pretty close to what it has been for a long time, both parties not far off 40, Tories generally slightly ahead.
Given the polling before the last election you could argue that either this isn't anything to worry about and when the campaign starts and neutrality rules kick in is when it matters or that this is a pretty good position to be in considering where we started last time.
The most exciting thing is I am pretty sure we will be fully able to test our hypothesis out when the actual next election takes place as Labour members aren't going to be scared off by one poll showing a few point deficit and another a one point lead.
Personally although I would like Labour in the lead either consistently across the polls or on average over them I am fairly happy with the current position.
To be less popular than this Tory government midterm, you must be mad.
I don't buy into the idea we have to be multiple points ahead midterm to gain seats at the next election. Especially given Brexit and everything that comes with that as something will have to happen, even if it is a longer transition to more of the same. Although even without it the idea has already been proven false at the last election.
I agree with that. There are quite a few examples of Oppositions underperforming at this early stage of a Parliament - it is not midterm! - as compared with the subsequent general election result. Labour was still lagging the Tories at the beginning of 1961 but went on to win in 1964. The party also managed to achieve a better result in 1992 than pollsters were reflecting in Autumn 1988. Other examples relate to the Tories who did better at the 2001 and 2005 elections than was being implied by the polls in the Autumns of 1998 and 2002.
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes. There is actually no majority in the Conservative Party for a No Deal because it would be electorally suicidal.
Her only options are
CETA+, which doesn’t solve the Irish border issue.
EEA+CU, which does, but which also enables FOM.
Since she can’t argue consistently for either of those she will continue to insist upon Chequers, while edging toward EEA+CU and a fudge on FOM.
This would pass the House of Commons, perhaps with the concession of a referendum post actual exit. Labour would not have the stomach to vote it down, and neither would all 80 ERGers.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
Yep. This is completely correct. Unfortunately the weakness of May now means there is no choice but to leave with no deal to neutralise the NI issue.
No Deal means Brexit will be reversed, it then just becomes a question of when not if
No deal means Brexit can never be reversed - the UK would have to reapply for membership from scratch on current rules (eg Euro). Not a chance in hell.
With respect no deal will see a rebellion across the HOC and emergency legislation to stop it probably by referendum
Exactly. That is why Labour remainers - and maybe a few Tory Europhiles as well - will never support any deal May comes up with - they plan to use the threat of no deal to force another referendum against a background of political crisis.
No that is misreading it. If TM comes back with a deal I expect the HOC will pass it rather than risk no deal or the mess a second referendum would cause
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
And this is the point where the whole enterprise falls down. You cannot square that particular circle, and it seems clear that half the cabinet don't actually know how WTO works...
Half the posters on PB don’t either. WTO doesn’t mandate a hard border. But another WTO member could go to dispute under MFN if the UK grants preferential access for, say, the RoI’s widgets and not the US’s.
If it so ruled (not a certainty but likely), the UK would then need to institute checks on both sets of widgets or neither.
Not true.
WTO permits deals to be made and that doesn't violate MFN rules.
So the solution is to reach a deal.
We were talking about no deal WTO. Of course deals can be made but no one least of all the government knows which one we might end up with.
I'm talking about prevent no deal WTO.
If the EU would simply start negotiating then no deal can be avoided. People keep saying Canada can't work because of NI and the WTO MFN issue. Except that WTO permits deals and they don't violate the MFN rules.
A Canada trade deal with an agreement to have no hard border ticks every box
On the next election, the key numbers from 2017 were
- Con 42.4% - Lab 40% - LD 7.9% - UKIP 1.8%
Subsequently, I agree that Corbyn has lost support, some to Lib Dems certainly. However, he has also probably picked up support from non voters who now think he could win.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
Putting all together, the next election is still a dead heat. Probably the “real” number today is something like - Con 39.5 - Lab 39 - LD 10 - UKIP 4
We can rule out any early election. Only Labour is in any sense ready for one.
I'm fairly confident Labour can regain most/all of the support lost to the LibDems in an election campaign. I think it's just an emotional reaction from diehard Remainers, but we saw in 2017 that that particular vote dissolved back to Labour pretty much as soon as the election was called, and certainly in our canvassing we found the Lab->LD vote was soft as butter (though this might've been affected by the fact we were in a very tight Lab/Con marginal).
What's much more concerning to me is that there are precious few Tory->Labour converts - indeed, some polls recently have had a small net movement from Labour to the Tories. It's true that, historically, an opposition party needs to be gaining votes from the governing party in midterm - 2017 was a rare example of the opposition gaining from the government at the last minute, but I don't think that can be relied on to happen again - whereas it's historically not very unusual for an opposition to gain support from other opposition parties at the last minute.
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
Yep. This is completely correct. Unfortunately the weakness of May now means there is no choice but to leave with no deal to neutralise the NI issue.
No Deal means Brexit will be reversed, it then just becomes a question of when not if
No deal means Brexit can never be reversed - the UK would have to reapply for membership from scratch on current rules (eg Euro). Not a chance in hell.
With respect no deal will see a rebellion across the HOC and emergency legislation to stop it probably by referendum
That may be true - but what I was saying is that if we do leave on 31 March 2019 with no deal there is no way we can rejoin. The whole accession process would need to be run and every opt out would be off the table - the EU would probably insist on is joining the Euro if we want to rejoin. It can just never happen. That is why leavers are willing to risk no deal. They know it will be permanent.
Will Parliament stop no deal before it happens? That is another quesion but I don’t think so. Right now, May is more likely to acheive no deal and will be the one to say there was no choice.
More likely we leave via the EEA/EFTA route, by 2020 the EU may solely consist of the Eurozone nations anyway.
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
And this is the point where the whole enterprise falls down. You cannot square that particular circle, and it seems clear that half the cabinet don't actually know how WTO works...
Half the posters on PB don’t either. WTO doesn’t mandate a hard border. But another WTO member could go to dispute under MFN if the UK grants preferential access for, say, the RoI’s widgets and not the US’s.
If it so ruled (not a certainty but likely), the UK would then need to institute checks on both sets of widgets or neither.
Not true.
WTO permits deals to be made and that doesn't violate MFN rules.
So the solution is to reach a deal.
We were talking about no deal WTO. Of course deals can be made but no one least of all the government knows which one we might end up with.
I'm talking about prevent no deal WTO.
If the EU would simply start negotiating then no deal can be avoided. People keep saying Canada can't work because of NI and the WTO MFN issue. Except that WTO permits deals and they don't violate the MFN rules.
A Canada trade deal with an agreement to have no hard border ticks every box
A good poll for May and for Javid who has the least negative rating to succeed her.
However May has to start pivoting away from Chequers and towards trying for a more Canada style deal or the moves towards a no confidence vote will get stronger
How does a more Canada style deal address the NI issue?
Nothing addresses the NI issue. That's the point of it.
No Deal does. Problem belong EU/Ireland......
Indeed. No deal then Canada seems to be the only long term solution other than abandon Brexit.
Yep. This is completely correct. Unfortunately the weakness of May now means there is no choice but to leave with no deal to neutralise the NI issue.
No Deal means Brexit will be reversed, it then just becomes a question of when not if
No deal means Brexit can never be reversed - the UK would have to reapply for membership from scratch on current rules (eg Euro). Not a chance in hell.
With respect no deal will see a rebellion across the HOC and emergency legislation to stop it probably by referendum
Exactly. That is why Labour remainers - and maybe a few Tory Europhiles as well - will never support any deal May comes up with - they plan to use the threat of no deal to force another referendum against a background of political crisis.
No that is misreading it. If TM comes back with a deal I expect the HOC will pass it rather than risk no deal or the mess a second referendum would cause
Certainly puts the pressure on Labour to say how they would get a better deal, if they just vote against that deal for the sake of voting against it to get an election. With May in charge of Brexit, she will likely take any deal, so it is the most likely way we get to no deal. Now THAT would be playing politics with Brexit.
WTO permits deals to be made and that doesn't violate MFN rules.
So the solution is to reach a deal.
We were talking about no deal WTO. Of course deals can be made but no one least of all the government knows which one we might end up with.
I'm talking about prevent no deal WTO.
If the EU would simply start negotiating then no deal can be avoided. People keep saying Canada can't work because of NI and the WTO MFN issue. Except that WTO permits deals and they don't violate the MFN rules.
A Canada trade deal with an agreement to have no hard border ticks every box
Apart from the EU unfortunately
The EU have said all along that Canada is the logical solution though!
The best geopolitical destiny for the U.K. would be to lead an outer grouping of non-Eurozone countries in a kind of associate membership of the EU.
In, but also “out”.
The problem with the EU as currently constituted is that with the Eurozone especially it became too inflexible to cover all of Europe.
This associate membership doesn’t yet exist, but would include Switzerland, the Nordics and perhaps some Eastern European countries and even, as a long-term geopolitical ambition, Turkey.
Such an outer ring may even end up more attractive for some countries inside the Eurozone, eg Italy and Greece.
Meanwhile, a beefed up Anglo-French defence agreement would provide the core security plank of European defence which is to say focused on terror, Russia, and instabliity on the Med periphery.
This is the “Brexit” plan I want to see, not another Boris bridge pipe dream (his third and counting).
On the next election, the key numbers from 2017 were
- Con 42.4% - Lab 40% - LD 7.9% - UKIP 1.8%
Subsequently, I agree that Corbyn has lost support, some to Lib Dems certainly. However, he has also probably picked up support from non voters who now think he could win.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
Putting all together, the next election is still a dead heat. Probably the “real” number today is something like - Con 39.5 - Lab 39 - LD 10 - UKIP 4
We can rule out any early election. Only Labour is in any sense ready for one.
On those numbers Corbyn becomes PM propped up by the SNP and reliant on the LDs to get any legislation through
Which, curiously, is what Labour-leaning centrists might quite like, even though Corbynites and Tories alike would tear their hair.
When it comes to self inflicted wounds it's difficult to know whch was the worst. Calling the last election or appointing Boris Foreign Scretary.
On calling the last election, giving the polling at the time, what would you have done?
On Boris, it’s called “enough rope” - and Boris obliged. The real beneficiary of that is Hunt, who daily reminds us what having a competent FS is like.
You mean the invisible man, not heard a peep from him since he took over. Has he managed to free any Britons being held as pawns? Another waste of space , only difference being he hides behind the sofa rather than pretending he is the king of the jungle like Boris.
On the next election, the key numbers from 2017 were
- Con 42.4% - Lab 40% - LD 7.9% - UKIP 1.8%
Subsequently, I agree that Corbyn has lost support, some to Lib Dems certainly. However, he has also probably picked up support from non voters who now think he could win.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
Putting all together, the next election is still a dead heat. Probably the “real” number today is something like - Con 39.5 - Lab 39 - LD 10 - UKIP 4
We can rule out any early election. Only Labour is in any sense ready for one.
I'm fairly confident Labour can regain most/all of the support lost to the LibDems in an election campaign. I think it's just an emotional reaction from diehard Remainers, but we saw in 2017 that that particular vote dissolved back to Labour pretty much as soon as the election was called, and certainly in our canvassing we found the Lab->LD vote was soft as butter (though this might've been affected by the fact we were in a very tight Lab/Con marginal).
What's much more concerning to me is that there are precious few Tory->Labour converts - indeed, some polls recently have had a small net movement from Labour to the Tories. It's true that, historically, an opposition party needs to be gaining votes from the governing party in midterm - 2017 was a rare example of the opposition gaining from the government at the last minute, but I don't think that can be relied on to happen again - whereas it's historically not very unusual for an opposition to gain support from other opposition parties at the last minute.
But the opposition didn't gain from the government in 2017. The Tory vote share remained relatively constant through the campaign, and was up on 2015. The Labour vote was just up more, from everywhere else.
Interesting that TM had a love in with Ruth Davidson yesterday giving Ruth baby presents
I have little doubt they were talking of decapitating Boris and I would be very surprised if Ruth doesn't launch a full on broadside against Boris in her conference speech. He disgusts her
G she is a worse female equivalent of Boris, an empty windbag , self seeking and no principles.
On the next election, the key numbers from 2017 were
- Con 42.4% - Lab 40% - LD 7.9% - UKIP 1.8%
Subsequently, I agree that Corbyn has lost support, some to Lib Dems certainly. However, he has also probably picked up support from non voters who now think he could win.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
Putting all together, the next election is still a dead heat. Probably the “real” number today is something like - Con 39.5 - Lab 39 - LD 10 - UKIP 4
We can rule out any early election. Only Labour is in any sense ready for one.
I'm fairly confident Labour can regain most/all of the support lost to the LibDems in an election campaign. I think it's just an emotional reaction from diehard Remainers, but we saw in 2017 that that particular vote dissolved back to Labour pretty much as soon as the election was called, and certainly in our canvassing we found the Lab->LD vote was soft as butter (though this might've been affected by the fact we were in a very tight Lab/Con marginal).
What's much more concerning to me is that there are precious few Tory->Labour converts - indeed, some polls recently have had a small net movement from Labour to the Tories. It's true that, historically, an opposition party needs to be gaining votes from the governing party in midterm - 2017 was a rare example of the opposition gaining from the government at the last minute, but I don't think that can be relied on to happen again - whereas it's historically not very unusual for an opposition to gain support from other opposition parties at the last minute.
But the opposition didn't gain from the government in 2017. The Tory vote share remained relatively constant through the campaign, and was up on 2015. The Labour vote was just up more, from everywhere else.
No, Labour did gain from the Tories. The post-election polls said Labour gained 10-12% of the 2015 Tory vote (whereas, at the start of the campaign, they were on track to gain practically none of them).
On the next election, the key numbers from 2017 were
- Con 42.4% - Lab 40% - LD 7.9% - UKIP 1.8%
Subsequently, I agree that Corbyn has lost support, some to Lib Dems certainly. However, he has also probably picked up support from non voters who now think he could win.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
Putting all together, the next election is still a dead heat. Probably the “real” number today is something like - Con 39.5 - Lab 39 - LD 10 - UKIP 4
We can rule out any early election. Only Labour is in any sense ready for one.
I'm fairly confident Labour can regain most/all of the support lost to the LibDems in an election campaign.
Only if Labour is able to be all things to all people, ie. Starmerist. If not, it'll leak a lot of voters to the Lib Dems.
On the Tory side, it's a question of how many of their supporters will swap to Ukip because they think May's Brexit will be Brexit in name only, or to the LibDems because they don't support Brexit at all.
Since Ukip won't have many candidates, it does look somewhat perilous for Labour. Which would of course be ironic since it's the Tories who are ballsing up Brexit, not them.
May tying herself in knots a bit, saying she is making preparations for No Deal if absolutely necessary but committing to no hard border in Ireland which would not be possible under WTO rules.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
And this is the point where the whole enterprise falls down. You cannot square that particular circle, and it seems clear that half the cabinet don't actually know how WTO works...
Half the posters on PB don’t either. WTO doesn’t mandate a hard border. But another WTO member could go to dispute under MFN if the UK grants preferential access for, say, the RoI’s widgets and not the US’s.
If it so ruled (not a certainty but likely), the UK would then need to institute checks on both sets of widgets or neither.
Not true.
WTO permits deals to be made and that doesn't violate MFN rules.
So the solution is to reach a deal.
We were talking about no deal WTO. Of course deals can be made but no one least of all the government knows which one we might end up with.
I'm talking about prevent no deal WTO.
If the EU would simply start negotiating then no deal can be avoided. People keep saying Canada can't work because of NI and the WTO MFN issue. Except that WTO permits deals and they don't violate the MFN rules.
A Canada trade deal with an agreement to have no hard border ticks every box
G you are usually fairly astute , what has gone wrong with you. She is useless, cannot do interviews unless it is a patsy special with no questions allowed. Most overrated politician in history.
On the next election, the key numbers from 2017 were
- Con 42.4% - Lab 40% - LD 7.9% - UKIP 1.8%
Subsequently, I agree that Corbyn has lost support, some to Lib Dems certainly. However, he has also probably picked up support from non voters who now think he could win.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
Putting all together, the next election is still a dead heat. Probably the “real” number today is something like - Con 39.5 - Lab 39 - LD 10 - UKIP 4
We can rule out any early election. Only Labour is in any sense ready for one.
On those numbers Corbyn becomes PM propped up by the SNP and reliant on the LDs to get any legislation through
Which, curiously, is what Labour-leaning centrists might quite like, even though Corbynites and Tories alike would tear their hair.
They and the LDs would indeed hold the balance of power
On the next election, the key numbers from 2017 were
- Con 42.4% - Lab 40% - LD 7.9% - UKIP 1.8%
Subsequently, I agree that Corbyn has lost support, some to Lib Dems certainly. However, he has also probably picked up support from non voters who now think he could win.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
Putting all together, the next election is still a dead heat. Probably the “real” number today is something like - Con 39.5 - Lab 39 - LD 10 - UKIP 4
We can rule out any early election. Only Labour is in any sense ready for one.
I'm fairly confident Labour can regain most/all of the support lost to the LibDems in an election campaign. I think it's just an emotional reaction from diehard Remainers, but we saw in 2017 that that particular vote dissolved back to Labour pretty much as soon as the election was called, and certainly in our canvassing we found the Lab->LD vote was soft as butter (though this might've been affected by the fact we were in a very tight Lab/Con marginal).
What's much more concerning to me is that there are precious few Tory->Labour converts - indeed, some polls recently have had a small net movement from Labour to the Tories. It's true that, historically, an opposition party needs to be gaining votes from the governing party in midterm - 2017 was a rare example of the opposition gaining from the government at the last minute, but I don't think that can be relied on to happen again - whereas it's historically not very unusual for an opposition to gain support from other opposition parties at the last minute.
But the opposition didn't gain from the government in 2017. The Tory vote share remained relatively constant through the campaign, and was up on 2015. The Labour vote was just up more, from everywhere else.
No, Labour did gain from the Tories. The post-election polls said Labour gained 10-12% of the 2015 Tory vote (whereas, at the start of the campaign, they were on track to gain practically none of them).
It is also normal for the Opposition party to gain ground during the formal election campaign period - contrary to what most people appear to believe.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
All you have to know is that he is worse than the last one who was worse that the last one who was etc (onto ∞ and beyond).
On the next election, the key numbers from 2017 were
- Con 42.4% - Lab 40% - LD 7.9% - UKIP 1.8%
Subsequently, I agree that Corbyn has lost support, some to Lib Dems certainly. However, he has also probably picked up support from non voters who now think he could win.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
Putting all together, the next election is still a dead heat. Probably the “real” number today is something like - Con 39.5 - Lab 39 - LD 10 - UKIP 4
We can rule out any early election. Only Labour is in any sense ready for one.
I'm fairly confident Labour can regain most/all of the support lost to the LibDems in an election campaign.
Only if Labour is able to be all things to all people, ie. Starmerist. If not, it'll leak a lot of voters to the Lib Dems.
On the Tory side, it's a question of how many of their supporters will swap to Ukip because they think May's Brexit will be Brexit in name only, or to the LibDems because they don't support Brexit at all.
Since Ukip won't have many candidates, it does look somewhat perilous for Labour. Which would of course be ironic since it's the Tories who are ballsing up Brexit, not them.
Brexit is not a salient issue for many Labour voters. Other issues will trump it - as was true in 2017.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
All you have to know is that he is worse than the last one who was worse that the last one who was etc (onto ∞ and beyond).
It’s not Robinson-or-whatever-his-name-is yet, is it?
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
All you have to know is that he is worse than the last one who was worse that the last one who was etc (onto ∞ and beyond).
It’s not Robinson-or-whatever-his-name-is yet, is it?
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
Gone by who? She is a remainer. If she says no deal is possible, who exactly is going to replace her? And why? A leavers would replace her.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
Canada in my view is not viable for a reason that never gets mentioned. There's too much negotiation in it. Actual CETA is 1600 pages of highly specific text. A Canada type deal will get bogged down, last for years and may not even be ratified. All that for an outcome that is guaranteed to be markedly worse than what we had as members. Our car industry will be a likely casualty for instance.
The only viable outcomes, I think, are EU membership and SM+CU+VAT area, as minimum change options. It comes down to whether we think following rules we have no say in defining, and which take no account of our interest, is a price worth paying for the pretence of taking control.
On the next election, the key numbers from 2017 were
- Con 42.4% - Lab 40% - LD 7.9% - UKIP 1.8%
Subsequently, I agree that Corbyn has lost support, some to Lib Dems certainly. However, he has also probably picked up support from non voters who now think he could win.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
Putting all together, the next election is still a dead heat. Probably the “real” number today is something like - Con 39.5 - Lab 39 - LD 10 - UKIP 4
We can rule out any early election. Only Labour is in any sense ready for one.
I'm fairly confident Labour can regain most/all of the support lost to the LibDems in an election campaign. I think it's just an emotional reaction from diehard Remainers, but we saw in 2017 that that particular vote dissolved back to Labour pretty much as soon as the election was called, and certainly in our canvassing we found the Lab->LD vote was soft as butter (though this might've been affected by the fact we were in a very tight Lab/Con marginal).
What's much more concerning to me is that there are precious few Tory->Labour converts - indeed, some polls recently have had a small net movement from Labour to the Tories. It's true that, historically, an opposition party needs to be gaining votes from the governing party in midterm - 2017 was a rare example of the opposition gaining from the government at the last minute, but I don't think that can be relied on to happen again - whereas it's historically not very unusual for an opposition to gain support from other opposition parties at the last minute.
But the opposition didn't gain from the government in 2017. The Tory vote share remained relatively constant through the campaign, and was up on 2015. The Labour vote was just up more, from everywhere else.
No, Labour did gain from the Tories. The post-election polls said Labour gained 10-12% of the 2015 Tory vote (whereas, at the start of the campaign, they were on track to gain practically none of them).
Really? I did not know that. Do you have a link? Am not doubting you, merely would be interested. Of course there is always churn, but 17 appears to have been unusually volatile. 2 things are preventing Con-Lab switching. Brexit and JC. Once Brexit is done, the votes of those unaligned for whom leaving the EU is the most important issue will be up for grabs.
May now says that she believes in Brexit, yet not so long ago she was a Remainer. She and Johnson make a good pair.
Secondly, while she put her ambition before her beliefs in becoming the PM who is trying to negotiate Brexit she has a brass neck when accusing Labour of ‘playing politics’.
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
Gone by who? She is a remainer. If she says no deal is possible, who exactly is going to replace her? And why? A leavers would replace her.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
Almost nobody wants a No Deal. Those who pretend to today do not actually want to face the electoral consequences.
We agree though that May will “sell out”. However, I think it will pass.
I am sure it will be close, but even if Labour vote against, not all of the ERG will. She could pick up enough Labour rebels and even the LDs and SNP with concession of a referendum.
It would take a very strong stomach for a Tory MP to vote for No Deal and Potential Corbyn government.
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes.
No deal is her stated preferred option (given that all available deals are bad)
No, her preferred option is “Chequers”. If she were actually to come out and say, screw the EU, we now believe No Deal is the Best Deal, she would gone by lunchtime.
No deal is for negotiation. It will not happen in reality
Comments
And glad that this site helped you through the illness. I've seen all our rantings described as many things, but think this is a first for 'therapeutic'.
[Corbyn Supporter] "I support Corbyn and I'm sick of these MPs who don't follow our leader". Lets deselect them."
[JC] "Don't deselect them. We are a broad church"
[Corbyn Supporter] "we're deselecting anyone who doesn't do what the leader tells them to do"
What is rather more alarming is what’s likely to happen next year.
Alternatively we might have a recession. But it won't be the end of the world.
As a poker player I say our only choices are to call his bluff or fold. We can't negotiate.
Confronted by the hit to GDP from No Deal she says she is committed to Chequers and getting a good deal for the UK
As for Boris he remains an utter, utter twat.
And on that happy note, I must be off. Remember, kids, F1 starts shortly after midday.
"Now Mr Brickworth is the only man there who knows what he is talking about. He distrusts that round figure of 10 million pounds. Why should it come to exactly that ? ... But Mr Brickworth does not know where to begin. The other members could not read the blueprint even he referred to it. He would have to begin by explaining what a nuclear reactor is. And no-one there would admit that he did not already now. Better to say nothing"
That is how figures like 10 million (or 500 million) pounds enter the discourse.
If it so ruled (not a certainty but likely), the UK would then need to institute checks on both sets of widgets or neither.
My wife was sewing and just commented that Marr was rude and looked as if he was going to have another stroke
Come on Europe (yes I mean it)
But they don’t need to be at the border. In the US, for example, I’ve driven past immigration checkpoints 50 miles inside the US.
An electronic system is, and always has been, the best way to solve this issue.
It’s wankers who thought they could risk the settlement in NI to overturn Brexit who have caused the problem
WTO permits deals to be made and that doesn't violate MFN rules.
So the solution is to reach a deal.
The only sustainable Brexits are a Norway or Canada style deal
Will Parliament stop no deal before it happens? That is another quesion but I don’t think so. Right now, May is more likely to acheive no deal and will be the one to say there was no choice.
- Con 42.4%
- Lab 40%
- LD 7.9%
- UKIP 1.8%
Subsequently, I agree that Corbyn has lost support, some to Lib Dems certainly. However, he has also probably picked up support from non voters who now think he could win.
The Conservatives meanwhile have lost votes to UKIP. This phenomenon is not much remarked upon as the vote is flakey. as I write, I cannot even remember who the UKIP leader is.
Putting all together, the next election is still a
dead heat. Probably the “real” number today is something like
- Con 39.5
- Lab 39
- LD 10
- UKIP 4
We can rule out any early election. Only Labour is in any sense ready for one.
I think Boris may well have lost Brexit.
May cannot fight for No Deal. She would be gone in minutes. There is actually no majority in the Conservative Party for a No Deal because it would be electorally suicidal.
Her only options are
CETA+, which doesn’t solve the Irish border issue.
EEA+CU, which does, but which also enables FOM.
Since she can’t argue consistently for either of those she will continue to insist upon Chequers, while edging toward EEA+CU and a fudge on FOM.
This would pass the House of Commons, perhaps with the concession of a referendum post actual exit. Labour would not have the stomach to vote it down, and neither would all 80 ERGers.
If the EU would simply start negotiating then no deal can be avoided. People keep saying Canada can't work because of NI and the WTO MFN issue. Except that WTO permits deals and they don't violate the MFN rules.
A Canada trade deal with an agreement to have no hard border ticks every box
What's much more concerning to me is that there are precious few Tory->Labour converts - indeed, some polls recently have had a small net movement from Labour to the Tories. It's true that, historically, an opposition party needs to be gaining votes from the governing party in midterm - 2017 was a rare example of the opposition gaining from the government at the last minute, but I don't think that can be relied on to happen again - whereas it's historically not very unusual for an opposition to gain support from other opposition parties at the last minute.
Longer term we can look for a Canada style Deal
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10935617/After-2020-all-EU-members-will-have-to-adopt-the-euro.html
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-options/stairway-to-brexit-barnier-maps-out-uks-canadian-path-idUKKBN1ED23R
In, but also “out”.
The problem with the EU as currently constituted is that with the Eurozone especially it became too inflexible to cover all of Europe.
This associate membership doesn’t yet exist, but would include Switzerland, the Nordics and perhaps some Eastern European countries and even, as a long-term geopolitical ambition, Turkey.
Such an outer ring may even end up more attractive for some countries inside the Eurozone, eg Italy and Greece.
Meanwhile, a beefed up Anglo-French defence agreement would provide the core security plank of European defence which is to say focused on terror, Russia, and instabliity on the Med periphery.
This is the “Brexit” plan I want to see, not another Boris bridge pipe dream (his third and counting).
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-overwhelming-favourite-to-take-over-from-theresa-may-as-pm-huffpost-uk-poll-reveals_uk_5baf75cfe4b0c75759657bad
On the Tory side, it's a question of how many of their supporters will swap to Ukip because they think May's Brexit will be Brexit in name only, or to the LibDems because they don't support Brexit at all.
Since Ukip won't have many candidates, it does look somewhat perilous for Labour. Which would of course be ironic since it's the Tories who are ballsing up Brexit, not them.
No, if May comes back with no deal, that is what will happen. There is nothing Parliament can do about it. They won’t be given Government time for a bill. May might lose an amended ‘meaningful vote’ but it doesn’t mean anything.
I fully expect May to sell out, however, and get voted down by the HoC.
The only viable outcomes, I think, are EU membership and SM+CU+VAT area, as minimum change options. It comes down to whether we think following rules we have no say in defining, and which take no account of our interest, is a price worth paying for the pretence of taking control.
Of course there is always churn, but 17 appears to have been unusually volatile.
2 things are preventing Con-Lab switching. Brexit and JC. Once Brexit is done, the votes of those unaligned for whom leaving the EU is the most important issue will be up for grabs.
Secondly, while she put her ambition before her beliefs in becoming the PM who is trying to negotiate Brexit she has a brass neck when accusing Labour of ‘playing politics’.
Those who pretend to today do not actually want to face the electoral consequences.
We agree though that May will “sell out”.
However, I think it will pass.
I am sure it will be close, but even if Labour vote against, not all of the ERG will.
She could pick up enough Labour rebels and even the LDs and SNP with concession of a referendum.
It would take a very strong stomach for a Tory MP to vote for No Deal and Potential Corbyn government.