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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you think Beto O’Rourke is going to win Texas in November t

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249
    Sandpit said:
    Boom boom!

    Or perhaps that should be, boom bust? :pensive:
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    Sandpit said:
    Request from a house seller: kindly refrain from spreading this suggestion. At least till I’ve sold my flat. TIA.
    Don’t worry, it’s only Matt. No-one ever looks at his cartoons, and especially not on Sundays. ;)
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,169
    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    Taking that idea of Grayling's, what about a commemorative issue of stamps or gold coins with Junker's head on one side and the map of Europe excluding the United Kingdom on the reverse?

    Problem with putting Juncker's head on a stamp is people will spit on the wrong side.

    With the exception of Selmayr who of course owes his career to licking Juncker's back side...
    For J-CJ posterity beckons.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,169
    geoffw said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    Taking that idea of Grayling's, what about a commemorative issue of stamps or gold coins with Junker's head on one side and the map of Europe excluding the United Kingdom on the reverse?

    Problem with putting Juncker's head on a stamp is people will spit on the wrong side.

    With the exception of Selmayr who of course owes his career to licking Juncker's back side...
    For J-CJ posterity beckons.
    Or is that preposterous?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    edited September 2018
    I watched Newcastle v Arsenal on the telly at the Emirates today. At the exit of Highbury and Islington tube station was a stand for the Communist Party of Britain. Are these people too extreme for Jezza's Labour? Or are they keeping it going in case the moderates retake control of Labour?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    Taking that idea of Grayling's, what about a commemorative issue of stamps or gold coins with Junker's head on one side and the map of Europe excluding the United Kingdom on the reverse?

    Problem with putting Juncker's head on a stamp is people will spit on the wrong side.

    With the exception of Selmayr who of course owes his career to licking Juncker's back side...
    For J-CJ posterity beckons.
    Or is that preposterous?
    Not a bad effort for last thing on Saturday night. But I think he is more post-posterous and to judge by the amount he's drinking closing in on being posthumous.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,169

    Sandpit said:
    Request from a house seller: kindly refrain from spreading this suggestion. At least till I’ve sold my flat. TIA.
    You should relax. Or perhaps not, it is stress testing after all.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2018
    tlg86 said:

    I watched Newcastle v Arsenal on the telly at the Emirates today. At the exit of Highbury and Islington tube station was a stand for the Communist Party of Britain. Are these people too extreme for Jezza's Labour? Or are they keeping it going in case the moderates retake control of Labour?

    Surprised they still have the numbers, given most of their members now work in Jezza's office.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    edited September 2018
    tlg86 said:

    I watched Newcastle v Arsenal on the telly at the Emirates today. At the exit of Highbury and Islington tube station was a stand for the Communist Party of Britain. Are these people too extreme for Jezza's Labour? Or are they keeping it going in case the moderates retake control of Labour?

    The Communist Party of Great Britain endorsed Corbyn at the 2017 general election and stood no candidates for the first time since its foundation, instead urging its supporters to vote Labour.

    'First published in 1951 as The British Road to Socialism (before the party decided the word “British” smacked of empire) the Stalin-era document sets out a plan to take power and remake the island of Adam Smith and Margaret Thatcher.

    Step one is a leftwing takeover of the Labour party (check), followed by electoral triumph (incomplete), taking control of the state (incomplete) and building a Socialist society as a transition to Communism (incomplete).'


    https://www.ft.com/content/ee215d4a-4ebf-11e8-a7a9-37318e776bab
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sandpit said:
    Request from a house seller: kindly refrain from spreading this suggestion. At least till I’ve sold my flat. TIA.
    When I tried to sell my house in Petersham in 2005 Mervyn King went on the radio to say that house prices were massively overvalued and anyone who bought one was nuts.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:
    Request from a house seller: kindly refrain from spreading this suggestion. At least till I’ve sold my flat. TIA.
    When I tried to sell my house in Petersham in 2005 Mervyn King went on the radio to say that house prices were massively overvalued and anyone who bought one was nuts.
    I am completely sure it was personal Charles.
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    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:
    Request from a house seller: kindly refrain from spreading this suggestion. At least till I’ve sold my flat. TIA.
    When I tried to sell my house in Petersham in 2005 Mervyn King went on the radio to say that house prices were massively overvalued and anyone who bought one was nuts.
    Yep, that’s roughly how I feel now.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,681
    edited September 2018
    Looks like a fun game:

    https://twitter.com/GylesB1/status/1040889069847433216

    Sid James for Boris
    Babs Windsor for Andrea Leadsom

    Can't quite place Mrs May - Hattie Jaques has the appropriate 'deeply offended' but is somewhat overbuilt....

    Edit - and to mix genres, Hugh Laurie from Dad's Army for Lord Adonis...
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249

    Looks like a fun game:

    https://twitter.com/GylesB1/status/1040889069847433216

    Sid James for Boris
    Babs Windsor for Andrea Leadsom

    Can't quite place Mrs May - Hattie Jaques has the appropriate 'deeply offended' but is somewhat overbuilt....

    Joan Sims.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249
    Speaking of Carry On, I hope nobody has money on Worcestershire in the T20. They're being more brutally buggered than a Turkish man trying to avoid conscription.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249
    edited September 2018

    to mix genres, Hugh Laurie from Dad's Army for Lord Adonis...

    Do you mean John Laurie, or Hugh Laurie from Blackadder?
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    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Carry On, I hope nobody has money on Worcestershire in the T20. They're being more brutally buggered than a Turkish man trying to avoid conscription.

    Me.

    I'm confident.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Carry On, I hope nobody has money on Worcestershire in the T20. They're being more brutally buggered than a Turkish man trying to avoid conscription.

    Me.

    I'm confident.
    Given your track record in cricket predictions, that means Sussex will win by 30 with two overs left.

    Still at least you haven't bet a pineapple pizza on the outcome.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,169
    ydoethur said:

    to mix genres, Hugh Laurie from Dad's Army for Lord Adonis...

    Do you mean John Laurie, or Hugh Laurie from Blackadder?
    We're all doomed.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249
    geoffw said:

    ydoethur said:

    to mix genres, Hugh Laurie from Dad's Army for Lord Adonis...

    Do you mean John Laurie, or Hugh Laurie from Blackadder?
    We're all doomed.
    You mean we'll all be out for a duck and goose over stumps frog side?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Carry On, I hope nobody has money on Worcestershire in the T20. They're being more brutally buggered than a Turkish man trying to avoid conscription.

    Looks seriously close to me.
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    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Carry On, I hope nobody has money on Worcestershire in the T20. They're being more brutally buggered than a Turkish man trying to avoid conscription.

    Me.

    I'm confident.
    Given your track record in cricket predictions, that means Sussex will win by 30 with two overs left.

    Still at least you haven't bet a pineapple pizza on the outcome.
    I made a profit on the cricket on Tuesday.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249
    I was really surprised until I saw the date.
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    Worcestershire need 4 from 10.

    Told you all.

    I'll eat pineapple on pizza if Sussex win this.
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    Paging @Roger

    ydoethur has won your Rogerdamus crown.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Carry On, I hope nobody has money on Worcestershire in the T20. They're being more brutally buggered than a Turkish man trying to avoid conscription.

    Looks seriously close to me.
    I was wrong. Not close at all. Worcestershire easy.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249
    Phew, my strategy worked.

    Are good Muslim boys allowed to buy alcohol? If so Moeen Ali owes Brian Cox a very large bottle of very good champagne.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of Carry On, I hope nobody has money on Worcestershire in the T20. They're being more brutally buggered than a Turkish man trying to avoid conscription.

    A vivid but surely polyphobic simile. I bet you voted Leave.
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    ydoethur said:

    Phew, my strategy worked.

    Are good Muslim boys allowed to buy alcohol? If so Moeen Ali owes Brian Cox a very large bottle of very good champagne.

    Ben Cox.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249

    Paging @Roger

    ydoethur has won your Rogerdamus crown.

    Don't be silly.

    I won that three years ago when I said Alistair Cook was mad to put the Aussies in at Trent Bridge.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249

    ydoethur said:

    Phew, my strategy worked.

    Are good Muslim boys allowed to buy alcohol? If so Moeen Ali owes Brian Cox a very large bottle of very good champagne.

    Ben Cox.
    Yes, sorry, do not research Monty Python shows and comment on cricket at the same time.

    Question still stands.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    ydoethur said:

    Phew, my strategy worked.

    Are good Muslim boys allowed to buy alcohol? If so Moeen Ali owes Brian Cox a very large bottle of very good champagne.

    Ben Cox.
    Maybe seeing stars?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,249
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Phew, my strategy worked.

    Are good Muslim boys allowed to buy alcohol? If so Moeen Ali owes Brian Cox a very large bottle of very good champagne.

    Ben Cox.
    Maybe seeing stars?
    I think that's Archer, who was definitely shafted in that last over...
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794

    Looks like a fun game:

    https://twitter.com/GylesB1/status/1040889069847433216

    Sid James for Boris
    Babs Windsor for Andrea Leadsom

    Can't quite place Mrs May - Hattie Jaques has the appropriate 'deeply offended' but is somewhat overbuilt....

    Edit - and to mix genres, Hugh Laurie from Dad's Army for Lord Adonis...

    Nah. Bernard Breslaw for Boris, tho' he would need a good blonde wig. He would humanise him.
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    For those of you watching the cricket the real star was David Lloyd ( Bumble) rendition of Sweet Caroline

    My wife and I just loved it
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited September 2018

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:
    Request from a house seller: kindly refrain from spreading this suggestion. At least till I’ve sold my flat. TIA.
    When I tried to sell my house in Petersham in 2005 Mervyn King went on the radio to say that house prices were massively overvalued and anyone who bought one was nuts.
    Yep, that’s roughly how I feel now.
    Completely killed liquidity. Took me a year to shift.
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    Nothing puts pressure on Corbyn. Incredible as that may sound, he is immune to it. No idea how.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,856
    HYUFD said:


    The Communist Party of Great Britain endorsed Corbyn at the 2017 general election and stood no candidates for the first time since its foundation, instead urging its supporters to vote Labour.

    'First published in 1951 as The British Road to Socialism (before the party decided the word “British” smacked of empire) the Stalin-era document sets out a plan to take power and remake the island of Adam Smith and Margaret Thatcher.

    Step one is a leftwing takeover of the Labour party (check), followed by electoral triumph (incomplete), taking control of the state (incomplete) and building a Socialist society as a transition to Communism (incomplete).'

    https://www.ft.com/content/ee215d4a-4ebf-11e8-a7a9-37318e776bab

    Here in the hyper-marginal of East Ham, where Stephen Timms clings on by his fingertips and a 40,000 majority, we often have the Trade Union and Socialist Coalition (TUSC) having a stall in the High Street. They seem to think Corbyn is a bourgeois establishment running dog, Newham Council is a hotbed of Tories (around none out of 60) and the Labour Party a branch of the suppurating sore that is the British establishment.

    Hard to argue with any of that in all honesty.

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    He's asking for:

    Deal vs Remain, or
    No Deal vs Remain

    Biased, much?
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    Nothing puts pressure on Corbyn. Incredible as that may sound, he is immune to it. No idea how.
    Maybe if Hamas called for a People’s Vote?
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    Looks like a fun game:

    https://twitter.com/GylesB1/status/1040889069847433216

    Sid James for Boris
    Babs Windsor for Andrea Leadsom

    Can't quite place Mrs May - Hattie Jaques has the appropriate 'deeply offended' but is somewhat overbuilt....

    Edit - and to mix genres, Hugh Laurie from Dad's Army for Lord Adonis...

    Surely it should be called 'Carry On Up Yours'.
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    He's asking for:

    Deal vs Remain, or
    No Deal vs Remain

    Biased, much?
    You’d prefer to split the Leave vote?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,658
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    About two in five voters would be highly likely to vote for a new party in the political centre ground at a future election, a new poll for the Observer has revealed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/almost-half-of-voters-say-they-would-vote-for-new-party-in-election

    Arf. No they wouldn't.
    The new party would immediately be at 40%? Yeah, I don't believe it either.
    Opinium has 42% ready to vote for a new centre party, the poll also has 57% believing both the Tories and Labour are divided and 47% believe May is a weak leader and 49% believe Corbyn is a weak leader

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/almost-half-of-voters-say-they-would-vote-for-new-party-in-election
    People want change.

    The problem is that no one knows what that change is.

    Brexit and Corbynism are the suggestions, perhaps both.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    Will somebody give that woman a Damehood. God knows she's earned it.
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    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    About two in five voters would be highly likely to vote for a new party in the political centre ground at a future election, a new poll for the Observer has revealed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/almost-half-of-voters-say-they-would-vote-for-new-party-in-election

    Arf. No they wouldn't.
    The new party would immediately be at 40%? Yeah, I don't believe it either.
    Opinium has 42% ready to vote for a new centre party, the poll also has 57% believing both the Tories and Labour are divided and 47% believe May is a weak leader and 49% believe Corbyn is a weak leader

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/almost-half-of-voters-say-they-would-vote-for-new-party-in-election
    People want change.

    The problem is that no one knows what that change is.

    Brexit and Corbynism are the suggestions, perhaps both.
    42% seem to want not much change.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:
    Request from a house seller: kindly refrain from spreading this suggestion. At least till I’ve sold my flat. TIA.
    When I tried to sell my house in Petersham in 2005 Mervyn King went on the radio to say that house prices were massively overvalued and anyone who bought one was nuts.
    Yep, that’s roughly how I feel now.
    Completely killed liquidity. Took me a year to shift.
    You were lucky. In 2008 house prices in E&W fell by 20%. Not in real terms, in nominal terms. Companies were withdrawing mortgage guarantees overnight. 100% mortgages disappeared, then 95% mortgages about six months later.
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    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,658

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    About two in five voters would be highly likely to vote for a new party in the political centre ground at a future election, a new poll for the Observer has revealed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/almost-half-of-voters-say-they-would-vote-for-new-party-in-election

    Arf. No they wouldn't.
    The new party would immediately be at 40%? Yeah, I don't believe it either.
    Opinium has 42% ready to vote for a new centre party, the poll also has 57% believing both the Tories and Labour are divided and 47% believe May is a weak leader and 49% believe Corbyn is a weak leader

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/almost-half-of-voters-say-they-would-vote-for-new-party-in-election
    People want change.

    The problem is that no one knows what that change is.

    Brexit and Corbynism are the suggestions, perhaps both.
    42% seem to want not much change.
    They are projecting. No New Party would survive contact with reality.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    edited September 2018

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young women to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.
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    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    About two in five voters would be highly likely to vote for a new party in the political centre ground at a future election, a new poll for the Observer has revealed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/almost-half-of-voters-say-they-would-vote-for-new-party-in-election

    Arf. No they wouldn't.
    The new party would immediately be at 40%? Yeah, I don't believe it either.
    Opinium has 42% ready to vote for a new centre party, the poll also has 57% believing both the Tories and Labour are divided and 47% believe May is a weak leader and 49% believe Corbyn is a weak leader

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/almost-half-of-voters-say-they-would-vote-for-new-party-in-election
    People want change.

    The problem is that no one knows what that change is.

    Brexit and Corbynism are the suggestions, perhaps both.
    42% seem to want not much change.
    They are projecting. No New Party would survive contact with reality.
    It might not come close to 42% in an election but it would be a radical shake-up in British politics and that would make it harder to predict how it would all settle post-New Party formation
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    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    About two in five voters would be highly likely to vote for a new party in the political centre ground at a future election, a new poll for the Observer has revealed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/almost-half-of-voters-say-they-would-vote-for-new-party-in-election

    Arf. No they wouldn't.
    The new party would immediately be at 40%? Yeah, I don't believe it either.
    Opinium has 42% ready to vote for a new centre party, the poll also has 57% believing both the Tories and Labour are divided and 47% believe May is a weak leader and 49% believe Corbyn is a weak leader

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/almost-half-of-voters-say-they-would-vote-for-new-party-in-election
    People want change.

    The problem is that no one knows what that change is.

    Brexit and Corbynism are the suggestions, perhaps both.
    42% seem to want not much change.
    They are projecting. No New Party would survive contact with reality.
    I agree. But nonetheless almost by definition those 42% are not asking for anything radical, just a return to the sane options of Blairism (minus Iraq, I would imagine) and Cameroonism (minus another referendum!)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2018

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    I hope it is on her terms, not some shit bag threatening to out this info. Norman Lamb / his son was a victim of somebody trying to profit of the fact his son had mental health issues.
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    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    About two in five voters would be highly likely to vote for a new party in the political centre ground at a future election, a new poll for the Observer has revealed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/almost-half-of-voters-say-they-would-vote-for-new-party-in-election

    Arf. No they wouldn't.
    The new party would immediately be at 40%? Yeah, I don't believe it either.
    Opinium has 42% ready to vote for a new centre party, the poll also has 57% believing both the Tories and Labour are divided and 47% believe May is a weak leader and 49% believe Corbyn is a weak leader

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/almost-half-of-voters-say-they-would-vote-for-new-party-in-election
    People want change.

    The problem is that no one knows what that change is.

    Brexit and Corbynism are the suggestions, perhaps both.
    There is a currently huge vacuum in new ideas for the modern age, both here and in the US.
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    viewcode said:

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young woman to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.
    Only by talking about these things we will bring about change. I am not happy about it. I am heartened by someone with such a profile has the courage to talk about it. She has proven herself to be a successful adult who has achieved significant success. It proves no-one needs to be defined by a mental health condition.

    I agree that we need better strategies for combating the issues around self-harm. I am not experienced enough in the field to even know where to start. But I do know that allowing the taboo surrounding mental health to persist is an absolute barrier to progress.
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    viewcode said:

    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young women to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.

    Yes, the mental health of a disturbingly large number of young people is a national (and probably international) crisis. It's one of the curious things that as a society we pride ourselves on supposedly treating children much better than was the case 50 years ago, yet on every objective measure (the clearest being teenage suicide, which isn't really subject to differential rates of diagnosis or definition), we seem to produce much worse outcomes.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794

    ...I am not happy about it...

    I use the wrong words, my bad. I am happy to accept your assurance.

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    viewcode said:

    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young women to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.

    Yes, the mental health of a disturbingly large number of young people is a national (and probably international) crisis. It's one of the curious things that as a society we pride ourselves on supposedly treating children much better than was the case 50 years ago, yet on every objective measure (the clearest being teenage suicide, which isn't really subject to differential rates of diagnosis or definition), we seem to produce much worse outcomes.
    It is not just young people. It is a health crisis affecting all ages. Part of the rise is down to better awareness of certain conditions and thus more accurate reporting. But it does appear to be a growing crisis and one where treatment options can be limited. The NHS has a clear focus on CBT as the preferred talking therapy and a limited number of drugs. If you find that these don't work for you, the pathways to treatment often don't exist unless you have a very dedicated GP or consultant. Even then, it is a struggle.

    We need a lot more research into all mental health conditions. A lot. We aren't even close to understanding things yet.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    viewcode said:

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young women to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.
    "Most importantly for me I threw away my pills" is something I really, really wish she had not said. For all their unpredictability and unreliability antidepressants can be, quite literally, lifesavers.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679
    viewcode said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:
    Request from a house seller: kindly refrain from spreading this suggestion. At least till I’ve sold my flat. TIA.
    When I tried to sell my house in Petersham in 2005 Mervyn King went on the radio to say that house prices were massively overvalued and anyone who bought one was nuts.
    Yep, that’s roughly how I feel now.
    Completely killed liquidity. Took me a year to shift.
    You were lucky. In 2008 house prices in E&W fell by 20%. Not in real terms, in nominal terms. Companies were withdrawing mortgage guarantees overnight. 100% mortgages disappeared, then 95% mortgages about six months later.
    We sold to the first viewer in late 2008, probably because we recognised the need to ask a reasonable price in a falling market. We then rented for 6 months thinking we would get a good deal in a (cash) buyers' market... Trouble is, very little came on to the market so we were effectively no better off. Once prices start to fall the whole market seizes up.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    viewcode said:

    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young women to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.

    Yes, the mental health of a disturbingly large number of young people is a national (and probably international) crisis. It's one of the curious things that as a society we pride ourselves on supposedly treating children much better than was the case 50 years ago, yet on every objective measure (the clearest being teenage suicide, which isn't really subject to differential rates of diagnosis or definition), we seem to produce much worse outcomes.
    https://tinyurl.com/ycjjdswg

    The highest age-specific suicide rate was 24.8 deaths per 100,000 among males aged 45 to 49 years; for females, the age group with the highest rate was 50 to 54 years, at 6.8 deaths per 100,000.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    Yes agreed.

    This article does though surely completely rule her out as a potential Tory leader, both by her own volition and also in the minds of MPs and members who elect the leader.

    Who then is the next great Tory hope? (Assuming TSE is otherwise engaged :wink:)
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794

    viewcode said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:
    Request from a house seller: kindly refrain from spreading this suggestion. At least till I’ve sold my flat. TIA.
    When I tried to sell my house in Petersham in 2005 Mervyn King went on the radio to say that house prices were massively overvalued and anyone who bought one was nuts.
    Yep, that’s roughly how I feel now.
    Completely killed liquidity. Took me a year to shift.
    You were lucky. In 2008 house prices in E&W fell by 20%. Not in real terms, in nominal terms. Companies were withdrawing mortgage guarantees overnight. 100% mortgages disappeared, then 95% mortgages about six months later.
    We sold to the first viewer in late 2008, probably because we recognised the need to ask a reasonable price in a falling market. We then rented for 6 months thinking we would get a good deal in a (cash) buyers' market... Trouble is, very little came on to the market so we were effectively no better off. Once prices start to fall the whole market seizes up.
    Yup. The only way you can take advantage of a falling market is at auction, when you are dealing with people who are forced to sell. Problem is, not many people can raise £80K in 28 days... :(
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2018

    It is not just young people. It is a health crisis affecting all ages. Part of the rise is down to better awareness of certain conditions and thus more accurate reporting. But it does appear to be a growing crisis and one where treatment options can be limited. The NHS has a clear focus on CBT as the preferred talking therapy and a limited number of drugs. If you find that these don't work for you, the pathways to treatment often don't exist unless you have a very dedicated GP or consultant. Even then, it is a struggle.

    We need a lot more research into all mental health conditions. A lot. We aren't even close to understanding things yet.

    The first question to ask is whether this is a medical issue, or a wider societal one. It may be that the very concept of 'treatment' is confusing things, because it implies you can dump the problem on doctors. Life in a mess? Here's a prescription.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,658
    Ishmael_Z said:

    viewcode said:

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young women to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.
    "Most importantly for me I threw away my pills" is something I really, really wish she had not said. For all their unpredictability and unreliability antidepressants can be, quite literally, lifesavers.
    Yes, it is rather reckless, even though I am rather concerned over rising prescription rates in youngsters. Pharma has a role, but the answer probably lies elsewhere.


  • Options

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    Yes agreed.

    This article does though surely completely rule her out as a potential Tory leader, both by her own volition and also in the minds of MPs and members who elect the leader.

    Who then is the next great Tory hope? (Assuming TSE is otherwise engaged :wink:)
    Sajid Javid surely has to be in pole position.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2018
    tlg86 said:

    viewcode said:

    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young women to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.

    Yes, the mental health of a disturbingly large number of young people is a national (and probably international) crisis. It's one of the curious things that as a society we pride ourselves on supposedly treating children much better than was the case 50 years ago, yet on every objective measure (the clearest being teenage suicide, which isn't really subject to differential rates of diagnosis or definition), we seem to produce much worse outcomes.
    https://tinyurl.com/ycjjdswg

    The highest age-specific suicide rate was 24.8 deaths per 100,000 among males aged 45 to 49 years; for females, the age group with the highest rate was 50 to 54 years, at 6.8 deaths per 100,000.
    Sure, but that isn't my point. My point is that if you want to compare mental health of young people today with that of young people of 50 years ago, and not be misled by changes in definitions or by improved or changed diagnoses, then teenage suicide rates are a very good proxy for an objective measure of youngsters' mental health.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    Ishmael_Z said:

    viewcode said:

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young women to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.
    "Most importantly for me I threw away my pills" is something I really, really wish she had not said. For all their unpredictability and unreliability antidepressants can be, quite literally, lifesavers.
    There was a period 15-10 years ago when it became very difficult to get a scrip for antidepressants. The theory was that there were other methods of curing depression (exercise, for example) but it ignored the fact that in some cases antidepressants in the short-term act as a reset/breaker, and enables the patient to take stock and act rationally.
  • Options
    Ishmael_Z said:

    viewcode said:

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young women to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.
    "Most importantly for me I threw away my pills" is something I really, really wish she had not said. For all their unpredictability and unreliability antidepressants can be, quite literally, lifesavers.
    I do agree that giving the impression that you can beat these conditions without drugs is potentially misleading. It clearly worked for her - which is great. But it will not apply to the majority of patients. It was her experience and, as such, it is valid. For her.

    It is why I have a really serious, serious problem with Johann Hari has written on this subject. It seems to be a near complete rejection of drug therapy - and that is dangerous.

    I have a large personal stake in this. I am part of an ongoing international trial investigating a new drug for Treatment Resistant Depression. So I am very invested in this as a topic.

    My experience of many antidepressants over more than a decade has been less than positive. I have moved away from them many times. But at times, I have needed them for some stability.

    But it would be wrong to say that they don't have value as part of a treatment plan for the majority of patients. They do. But everyone is different. And trying to deny people options is dangerous.

    I can get over-passionate about this - so will leave it there for now.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,339

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    I hope it is on her terms, not some shit bag threatening to out this info. Norman Lamb / his son was a victim of somebody trying to profit of the fact his son had mental health issues.
    That's disgusting, and weird too. Why would it shift a single vote, except in his favour?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    edited September 2018

    It is not just young people. It is a health crisis affecting all ages. Part of the rise is down to better awareness of certain conditions and thus more accurate reporting. But it does appear to be a growing crisis and one where treatment options can be limited. The NHS has a clear focus on CBT as the preferred talking therapy and a limited number of drugs. If you find that these don't work for you, the pathways to treatment often don't exist unless you have a very dedicated GP or consultant. Even then, it is a struggle.

    We need a lot more research into all mental health conditions. A lot. We aren't even close to understanding things yet.

    The first question to ask is whether this is a medical issue, or a wider societal one. It may be that the very concept of 'treatment' is confusing things, because it implies you can dump the problem on doctors. Life in a mess? Here's a prescription.
    I agree that antidepressants are not a long-term solution (and can be a long-term problem!), but in the short-term (30-60days) they enable the patient to calm down, take stock, and address the issues. Depressed people often can't do that, by definition.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    edited September 2018
    Sertraline helped me get to a point where I could think rationally and actually engage with the therapy properly.

    The two combined really, really helped me when I was suffering with serious anxiety and depression a few years ago.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    tlg86 said:

    viewcode said:

    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young women to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.

    Yes, the mental health of a disturbingly large number of young people is a national (and probably international) crisis. It's one of the curious things that as a society we pride ourselves on supposedly treating children much better than was the case 50 years ago, yet on every objective measure (the clearest being teenage suicide, which isn't really subject to differential rates of diagnosis or definition), we seem to produce much worse outcomes.
    https://tinyurl.com/ycjjdswg

    The highest age-specific suicide rate was 24.8 deaths per 100,000 among males aged 45 to 49 years; for females, the age group with the highest rate was 50 to 54 years, at 6.8 deaths per 100,000.
    Sure, but that isn't my point. My point is that if you want to compare mental health of young people today with that of young people of 50 years ago, and not be misled by changes in definitions or by improved or changed diagnoses, then teenage suicide rates are a very good proxy for an objective measure of mental health.
    That ONS release has data back to 1981. The data shows that suicide rates for 10-29 year olds has increased from 3.0 per 100,000 in 1981 to 3.2 in 2017. The rate peaked at 3.9 in 1998 and 2000.
  • Options
    viewcode said:

    It is not just young people. It is a health crisis affecting all ages. Part of the rise is down to better awareness of certain conditions and thus more accurate reporting. But it does appear to be a growing crisis and one where treatment options can be limited. The NHS has a clear focus on CBT as the preferred talking therapy and a limited number of drugs. If you find that these don't work for you, the pathways to treatment often don't exist unless you have a very dedicated GP or consultant. Even then, it is a struggle.

    We need a lot more research into all mental health conditions. A lot. We aren't even close to understanding things yet.

    The first question to ask is whether this is a medical issue, or a wider societal one. It may be that the very concept of 'treatment' is confusing things, because it implies you can dump the problem on doctors. Life in a mess? Here's a prescription.
    I agree that antidepressants are not a long-term solution (and can be a long-term problem!), but in the short-term (30-60days) they enable the patient to calm down, take stock, and address the issues. Depressed people often can't do that, by definition.
    I agree entirely.
  • Options

    It is not just young people. It is a health crisis affecting all ages. Part of the rise is down to better awareness of certain conditions and thus more accurate reporting. But it does appear to be a growing crisis and one where treatment options can be limited. The NHS has a clear focus on CBT as the preferred talking therapy and a limited number of drugs. If you find that these don't work for you, the pathways to treatment often don't exist unless you have a very dedicated GP or consultant. Even then, it is a struggle.

    We need a lot more research into all mental health conditions. A lot. We aren't even close to understanding things yet.

    The first question to ask is whether this is a medical issue, or a wider societal one. It may be that the very concept of 'treatment' is confusing things, because it implies you can dump the problem on doctors. Life in a mess? Here's a prescription.
    By treatment, I am talking about working with the support of trained professionals.

    Because we don't understand many mental health conditions, it is impossible to know where the lines between societal, environmental, genetic and other medical factors intersect.

    But I think the solutions will be found through a combination of interventions. But almost certainly designed for the individual rather than being an off-the-shelf 'treatment'
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2018
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    viewcode said:

    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young women to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.

    Yes, the mental health of a disturbingly large number of young people is a national (and probably international) crisis. It's one of the curious things that as a society we pride ourselves on supposedly treating children much better than was the case 50 years ago, yet on every objective measure (the clearest being teenage suicide, which isn't really subject to differential rates of diagnosis or definition), we seem to produce much worse outcomes.
    https://tinyurl.com/ycjjdswg

    The highest age-specific suicide rate was 24.8 deaths per 100,000 among males aged 45 to 49 years; for females, the age group with the highest rate was 50 to 54 years, at 6.8 deaths per 100,000.
    Sure, but that isn't my point. My point is that if you want to compare mental health of young people today with that of young people of 50 years ago, and not be misled by changes in definitions or by improved or changed diagnoses, then teenage suicide rates are a very good proxy for an objective measure of mental health.
    That ONS release has data back to 1981. The data shows that suicide rates for 10-29 year olds has increased from 3.0 per 100,000 in 1981 to 3.2 in 2017. The rate peaked at 3.9 in 1998 and 2000.
    Interesting - but what about 10 to (say) 18 year olds, which is really what I'm talking about? I have found it hard to get good UK figures, but I did find some good US ones, which showed a big increase over a similar period.
  • Options

    By treatment, I am talking about working with the support of trained professionals.

    Because we don't understand many mental health conditions, it is impossible to know where the lines between societal, environmental, genetic and other medical factors intersect.

    But I think the solutions will be found through a combination of interventions. But almost certainly designed for the individual rather than being an off-the-shelf 'treatment'

    Yes, I agree. But I think it's important to step back and look at causes, rather than just treatment.
  • Options
    One of the positive things from Ruth D's interview is that we are having a constructive discussion about mental health and treatment options.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,658
    viewcode said:

    It is not just young people. It is a health crisis affecting all ages. Part of the rise is down to better awareness of certain conditions and thus more accurate reporting. But it does appear to be a growing crisis and one where treatment options can be limited. The NHS has a clear focus on CBT as the preferred talking therapy and a limited number of drugs. If you find that these don't work for you, the pathways to treatment often don't exist unless you have a very dedicated GP or consultant. Even then, it is a struggle.

    We need a lot more research into all mental health conditions. A lot. We aren't even close to understanding things yet.

    The first question to ask is whether this is a medical issue, or a wider societal one. It may be that the very concept of 'treatment' is confusing things, because it implies you can dump the problem on doctors. Life in a mess? Here's a prescription.
    I agree that antidepressants are not a long-term solution (and can be a long-term problem!), but in the short-term (30-60days) they enable the patient to calm down, take stock, and address the issues. Depressed people often can't do that, by definition.
    Anti depressants take a fortnight to take effect, so that is a rather short course.

    The timeline for Ruth Davidson is different, but this article is food for thought:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/may/24/smartphone-teen-suicide-mental-health-depression
  • Options

    By treatment, I am talking about working with the support of trained professionals.

    Because we don't understand many mental health conditions, it is impossible to know where the lines between societal, environmental, genetic and other medical factors intersect.

    But I think the solutions will be found through a combination of interventions. But almost certainly designed for the individual rather than being an off-the-shelf 'treatment'

    Yes, I agree. But I think it's important to step back and look at causes, rather than just treatment.
    Identifying the causes is very, very difficult. At least it is in my case.

    I am thirteen years into to my current bout. We aren't even close to understanding what is going on. I have been through group therapy, CBT groups, mindfulness and a range of different drug regimes - all to no avail. Indeed some of them (CBT and mindfulness mainly) made me worse.

    But I still have no idea why I am wired the way I am.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2018

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    I hope it is on her terms, not some shit bag threatening to out this info. Norman Lamb / his son was a victim of somebody trying to profit of the fact his son had mental health issues.
    That's disgusting, and weird too. Why would it shift a single vote, except in his favour?
    I honestly don't know (money perhaps), but that is what happened. Somebody tried to sell a story of Norman Lamb son's battle with drugs and mental health issues and forced Norman to spike the story.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    edited September 2018

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    viewcode said:

    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young women to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.

    Yes, the mental health of a disturbingly large number of young people is a national (and probably international) crisis. It's one of the curious things that as a society we pride ourselves on supposedly treating children much better than was the case 50 years ago, yet on every objective measure (the clearest being teenage suicide, which isn't really subject to differential rates of diagnosis or definition), we seem to produce much worse outcomes.
    https://tinyurl.com/ycjjdswg

    The highest age-specific suicide rate was 24.8 deaths per 100,000 among males aged 45 to 49 years; for females, the age group with the highest rate was 50 to 54 years, at 6.8 deaths per 100,000.
    Sure, but that isn't my point. My point is that if you want to compare mental health of young people today with that of young people of 50 years ago, and not be misled by changes in definitions or by improved or changed diagnoses, then teenage suicide rates are a very good proxy for an objective measure of mental health.
    That ONS release has data back to 1981. The data shows that suicide rates for 10-29 year olds has increased from 3.0 per 100,000 in 1981 to 3.2 in 2017. The rate peaked at 3.9 in 1998 and 2000.
    Interesting - but what about 10 to (say) 18 year olds, which is really what I'm talking about?
    Sorry, just realised I posted female rates for 10 to 29 year olds. Here are the male (edit - sorry again!) stats:

    1981 - 9.8
    2017 - 9.9
    Peak - 15.9 (1993)

    The ONS do split out the figures for the most recent year. In 2017 the rates were:

    10 to 14 - 0.4
    15 to 19 - 5.6
    20 to 24 - 8.7
    25 to 29 - 10.6
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    Yes agreed.

    This article does though surely completely rule her out as a potential Tory leader, both by her own volition and also in the minds of MPs and members who elect the leader.

    Who then is the next great Tory hope? (Assuming TSE is otherwise engaged :wink:)
    Sajid Javid surely has to be in pole position.
    Depends - if the Tory party membership at large is as socially progressive as PB Tories seem to be, then yes, Sajid is a strong possibility. But I think many shire Tories still harbour regressive cultural views (often subconsciously) which make it harder for Sajid to win.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2018

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    Yes agreed.

    This article does though surely completely rule her out as a potential Tory leader, both by her own volition and also in the minds of MPs and members who elect the leader.

    Who then is the next great Tory hope? (Assuming TSE is otherwise engaged :wink:)
    Sajid Javid surely has to be in pole position.
    Depends - if the Tory party membership at large is as socially progressive as PB Tories seem to be, then yes, Sajid is a strong possibility. But I think many shire Tories still harbour regressive cultural views (often subconsciously) which make it harder for Sajid to win.
    I am not sure who else there is. Bonking Boris, no, Spreadsheet Phil, no, Michael "Start an argument in an empty lift" Gove, JRM, gotta be kidding...who is left?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    I hope it is on her terms, not some shit bag threatening to out this info. Norman Lamb / his son was a victim of somebody trying to profit of the fact his son had mental health issues.
    That's disgusting, and weird too. Why would it shift a single vote, except in his favour?
    Suspect it was about filthy lucre rather than political.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    viewcode said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    viewcode said:

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young women to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.
    "Most importantly for me I threw away my pills" is something I really, really wish she had not said. For all their unpredictability and unreliability antidepressants can be, quite literally, lifesavers.
    There was a period 15-10 years ago when it became very difficult to get a scrip for antidepressants. The theory was that there were other methods of curing depression (exercise, for example) but it ignored the fact that in some cases antidepressants in the short-term act as a reset/breaker, and enables the patient to take stock and act rationally.
    I was very, very lucky to be prescribed amitriptyline when first diagnosed in 1990 by a very old fashioned gp (lucky in that almost everybody was prescribing Prozac in those days, and Prozac and any other ssris do absolutely bugger all for me whereas amitriptyline works like turning a switch).

    I understand that in the ROI it's virtually impossible to get prescribed antidepressants without physical evidence of a suicide attempt which is horrifying if true.
  • Options

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    Yes agreed.

    This article does though surely completely rule her out as a potential Tory leader, both by her own volition and also in the minds of MPs and members who elect the leader.

    Who then is the next great Tory hope? (Assuming TSE is otherwise engaged :wink:)
    Sajid Javid surely has to be in pole position.
    Depends - if the Tory party membership at large is as socially progressive as PB Tories seem to be, then yes, Sajid is a strong possibility. But I think many shire Tories still harbour regressive cultural views (often subconsciously) which make it harder for Sajid to win.
    He has an extra vote as my good lady joined the party for the first time yesterday at 79 to do her bit to negate one kipper vote, one Boris vote and one Corbyn vote
  • Options

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    Yes agreed.

    This article does though surely completely rule her out as a potential Tory leader, both by her own volition and also in the minds of MPs and members who elect the leader.

    Who then is the next great Tory hope? (Assuming TSE is otherwise engaged :wink:)
    Sajid Javid surely has to be in pole position.
    Depends - if the Tory party membership at large is as socially progressive as PB Tories seem to be, then yes, Sajid is a strong possibility. But I think many shire Tories still harbour regressive cultural views (often subconsciously) which make it harder for Sajid to win.
    I am not sure who else there is. Bonking Boris, no, Spreadsheet Phil, no, Michael "Start an argument in an empty lift" Gove, JRM, gotta be kidding...who is left?
    I’d make Penny Mordaunt the favourite at the moment. She’s the best positioned of everyone who was on the pro-Brexit side of the referendum.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    edited September 2018
    Ishmael_Z said:

    viewcode said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    viewcode said:

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    While I'm not as happy as you about it, the tendency of young women to self-harm via cutting or anorexia is something that really needs addressing. Some of the stories are horrific. We eliminated smoking (near-as-dammit) via a 50yr health program and constant pressure, and something similar here for self-harm would be good.
    "Most importantly for me I threw away my pills" is something I really, really wish she had not said. For all their unpredictability and unreliability antidepressants can be, quite literally, lifesavers.
    There was a period 15-10 years ago when it became very difficult to get a scrip for antidepressants. The theory was that there were other methods of curing depression (exercise, for example) but it ignored the fact that in some cases antidepressants in the short-term act as a reset/breaker, and enables the patient to take stock and act rationally.
    I was very, very lucky to be prescribed amitriptyline when first diagnosed in 1990 by a very old fashioned gp (lucky in that almost everybody was prescribing Prozac in those days, and Prozac and any other ssris do absolutely bugger all for me whereas amitriptyline works like turning a switch).

    I understand that in the ROI it's virtually impossible to get prescribed antidepressants without physical evidence of a suicide attempt which is horrifying if true.
    A friend of mine got married in Ireland last month. She visited her husband's home village and they went to graveyard where his family are at rest.

    She was struck by the number of relatively new graves - all young men who had taken their own lives. In a very small community - under 2000 inhabitants from what she said.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    Yes agreed.

    This article does though surely completely rule her out as a potential Tory leader, both by her own volition and also in the minds of MPs and members who elect the leader.

    Who then is the next great Tory hope? (Assuming TSE is otherwise engaged :wink:)
    Sajid Javid surely has to be in pole position.
    Depends - if the Tory party membership at large is as socially progressive as PB Tories seem to be, then yes, Sajid is a strong possibility. But I think many shire Tories still harbour regressive cultural views (often subconsciously) which make it harder for Sajid to win.
    I am not sure who else there is. Bonking Boris, no, Spreadsheet Phil, no, Michael "Start an argument in an empty lift" Gove, JRM, gotta be kidding...who is left?
    Which was my point entriely several posts back ("Who then is the next great Tory hope?")

    How about Amber Rudd as a long shot? Stood in well for TMay in leadership debates and took a bullet for her over Windrush. She needs a safer constituency (shouldn't be hard to arrange at the next GE). If, as I suspect, Theresa is still PM going into the next election, I hazard a guess she will re-elevate Rudd to the cabinet in 2020-21.
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    Former communist Andrew Murray, Mr Corbyn's chief political adviser, was slapped with the three-year ban in June on the advice of the country's security service, the SBU.

    But last night Mr Murray, who has played a key role in a campaign to support pro-Moscow separatists in Ukraine, angrily denied being part of any 'so-called propaganda network'.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6171969/Corbyns-ex-Communist-adviser-banned-entering-Ukraine-three-years.html
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    Identifying the causes is very, very difficult. At least it is in my case.

    I am thirteen years into to my current bout. We aren't even close to understanding what is going on. I have been through group therapy, CBT groups, mindfulness and a range of different drug regimes - all to no avail. Indeed some of them (CBT and mindfulness mainly) made me worse.

    But I still have no idea why I am wired the way I am.

    Looking for causes in a given individual is harder than finding statistical evidence of causality, unless there's something dramatic and obvious. A lot must depend on context - looking back at the generations who experienced WW1 and WW2, including some who went through the worst of the horrors, it seems extraordinary that they mostly went on to lead largely untroubled lives. As you rightly say, we aren't even close to understanding all this.

    Thirteen years sounds really tough - I feel for you. I haven't personally had such problems but like most people I have close friends and family members who in various ways have done so, and it's really difficult.
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    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    Yes agreed.

    This article does though surely completely rule her out as a potential Tory leader, both by her own volition and also in the minds of MPs and members who elect the leader.

    Who then is the next great Tory hope? (Assuming TSE is otherwise engaged :wink:)
    Sajid Javid surely has to be in pole position.
    Depends - if the Tory party membership at large is as socially progressive as PB Tories seem to be, then yes, Sajid is a strong possibility. But I think many shire Tories still harbour regressive cultural views (often subconsciously) which make it harder for Sajid to win.
    I am not sure who else there is. Bonking Boris, no, Spreadsheet Phil, no, Michael "Start an argument in an empty lift" Gove, JRM, gotta be kidding...who is left?
    Which was my point entriely several posts back ("Who then is the next great Tory hope?")

    How about Amber Rudd as a long shot? Stood in well for TMay in leadership debates and took a bullet for her over Windrush. She needs a safer constituency (shouldn't be hard to arrange at the next GE). If, as I suspect, Theresa is still PM going into the next election, I hazard a guess she will re-elevate Rudd to the cabinet in 2020-21.
    I highly doubt May will make 2021. The Tories are too ruthless. They are waiting for her to totally own whatever Brexit becomes and then they will do her in.
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    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    Yes agreed.

    This article does though surely completely rule her out as a potential Tory leader, both by her own volition and also in the minds of MPs and members who elect the leader.

    Who then is the next great Tory hope? (Assuming TSE is otherwise engaged :wink:)
    Sajid Javid surely has to be in pole position.
    Depends - if the Tory party membership at large is as socially progressive as PB Tories seem to be, then yes, Sajid is a strong possibility. But I think many shire Tories still harbour regressive cultural views (often subconsciously) which make it harder for Sajid to win.
    I am not sure who else there is. Bonking Boris, no, Spreadsheet Phil, no, Michael "Start an argument in an empty lift" Gove, JRM, gotta be kidding...who is left?
    The next tory leader is probably a tier 2 minister right now, someone from the 2010 intake who supported leave. No one who supported remain 2016 will get past the membership

    Mordaunt @ 33 is screaming value; if she makes the last two the members will go for her in droves, also ticks the military background a certain type of tory likes.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    Takes real strength to talk so openly about those sorts of challenges. Good on her for being open and honest. We absolutely need to smash the taboos surrounding mental health.
    Yes agreed.

    This article does though surely completely rule her out as a potential Tory leader, both by her own volition and also in the minds of MPs and members who elect the leader.

    Who then is the next great Tory hope? (Assuming TSE is otherwise engaged :wink:)
    Sajid Javid surely has to be in pole position.
    Depends - if the Tory party membership at large is as socially progressive as PB Tories seem to be, then yes, Sajid is a strong possibility. But I think many shire Tories still harbour regressive cultural views (often subconsciously) which make it harder for Sajid to win.
    He has an extra vote as my good lady joined the party for the first time yesterday at 79 to do her bit to negate one kipper vote, one Boris vote and one Corbyn vote
    As I said Big_G, PB Tories are generally an open-minded (if misguided) bunch :wink:
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    edited September 2018
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I understand that in the ROI it's virtually impossible to get prescribed antidepressants without physical evidence of a suicide attempt which is horrifying if true.

    Is that thru legislation or thru convention? Is it a case of doctors can't or won't?

    [edit: remove greengrocer's apostrophe]

This discussion has been closed.