I'm wondering if yesterday's Trump Puerto Rico tweetmare take might firm up the Hispanic votes in Florida and Texas for the Dems. If it causes GOP leaning hispanics to sit this out and motivates a few more Dem and Ind hispanics to the polls in the Dem column then it could shake things up.
Lots of Puerto Ricans in Florida, including a new influx post Maria.
I went there some years ago, it is a lovely island. Flew there in an ancient plane via Antilles Airboats:
Indeed, it's just hard to guage how much of this stuff is already discounted. I struggle daily to understand how so many people can still bring themselves to act as Trump enablers.
So all the people which were saying the EC was uttter shit have been vindicated...
what a suprise.
And the people screaming that Vote Leave cheated 2 months back are rather quieter now.
@Roger July 17 1:08PM "'Vote Leave' cheated. Fact.......
Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.
But Jolyon Maugham QC of the Good Law Project, which brought the High Court challenge, said the ruling proved the watchdog "unlawfully tilted the playing field in favour of Leave" in the 2016 referendum.
Mr I'll Sue Ya appears to have had his latest attempt at a legal wheeze blow up in his face.
The only "chaos" I've noticed is from the political class who have been running around like headless chickens since 23rd June 2016 trying to find ever more ingenious ways to thwart the result .
The Senate is not impossible either but would require them to likely gain Arizona, Nevada or if they lose a seat like Florida or Indiana or North Dakota maybe to take Tennnessee or Texas too
The only "chaos" I've noticed is from the political class who have been running around like headless chickens since 23rd June 2016 trying to find ever more ingenious ways to thwart the result .
F1: if you're tempted to back Red Bull, it's tricky to call between qualifying and the race. Their DNF rate is atrocious, but they'll lose out on engine modes in qualifying (although that matters far less at Singapore than elsewhere). I'd probably go for qualifying, but bear that in mind when betting.
Ultimately, the position of the Electoral Commission on what amounts to an “expense incurred” within the meaning of section 111 of PPERA appeared to offer little improvement on the well known elephant test of “I know one when I see one”. That is not a satisfactory approach in circumstances where a person who reports referendum expenses incorrectly is potentially guilty of a criminal offence.
The only "chaos" I've noticed is from the political class who have been running around like headless chickens since 23rd June 2016 trying to find ever more ingenious ways to thwart the result .
Everyone else has just got on with it...
What precisely has Mrs May being getting on with?
Getting on with the job.
To be fair keeping both Corbyn and Boris out of No 10 is quite an important role..
The only "chaos" I've noticed is from the political class who have been running around like headless chickens since 23rd June 2016 trying to find ever more ingenious ways to thwart the result .
The only "chaos" I've noticed is from the political class who have been running around like headless chickens since 23rd June 2016 trying to find ever more ingenious ways to thwart the result .
The only "chaos" I've noticed is from the political class who have been running around like headless chickens since 23rd June 2016 trying to find ever more ingenious ways to thwart the result .
40. Ultimately, the position of the Electoral Commission on what amounts to an “expense incurred” within the meaning of section 111 of PPERA appeared to offer little improvement on the well known elephant test of “I know one when I see one”. That is not a satisfactory approach in circumstances where a person who reports referendum expenses incorrectly is potentially guilty of a criminal offence.
40. Ultimately, the position of the Electoral Commission on what amounts to an “expense incurred” within the meaning of section 111 of PPERA appeared to offer little improvement on the well known elephant test of “I know one when I see one”. That is not a satisfactory approach in circumstances where a person who reports referendum expenses incorrectly is potentially guilty of a criminal offence.
Wow, that is stinging.
Edit: I see Carlotta got there first.
Would it not make more sense for the EC to just not give advice to anyone, ever?
One suggestion was that UK civil servants should be drafted in to independently investigate any complaints about Salmond or future first ministers.
The idea was rejected by the Scottish Government.
Instead, a process was put in place that would see informal complaints initially examined by the Scottish Government’s head of HR before being passed on to the permanent secretary and deputy first minister, who at the time was Nicola Sturgeon.
F1: if you're tempted to back Red Bull, it's tricky to call between qualifying and the race. Their DNF rate is atrocious, but they'll lose out on engine modes in qualifying (although that matters far less at Singapore than elsewhere). I'd probably go for qualifying, but bear that in mind when betting.
The Senate is not impossible either but would require them to likely gain Arizona, Nevada or if they lose a seat like Florida or Indiana or North Dakota maybe to take Tennnessee or Texas too
Great article. Looks like the Betfair market and the 538 probabilities are out of whack in some, notably north dakota Montana and West Virgina. Potentially a lot of value.
Electoral Commission obviously in real trouble; and a further blow to our institutions and rule-makers and enforcers when already under scrutiny.
40. Ultimately, the position of the Electoral Commission on what amounts to an “expense incurred” within the meaning of section 111 of PPERA appeared to offer little improvement on the well known elephant test of “I know one when I see one”. That is not a satisfactory approach in circumstances where a person who reports referendum expenses incorrectly is potentially guilty of a criminal offence.
Wow, that is stinging.
Edit: I see Carlotta got there first.
Would it not make more sense for the EC to just not give advice to anyone, ever?
The only "chaos" I've noticed is from the political class who have been running around like headless chickens since 23rd June 2016 trying to find ever more ingenious ways to thwart the result .
The Senate is not impossible either but would require them to likely gain Arizona, Nevada or if they lose a seat like Florida or Indiana or North Dakota maybe to take Tennnessee or Texas too
NOC might be slight value for the Senate. But one potentially nice thing about betting Dems for House, GOP for Senate is that you may well win both bets but it's extremely unlikely that you'll lose both.
The only "chaos" I've noticed is from the political class who have been running around like headless chickens since 23rd June 2016 trying to find ever more ingenious ways to thwart the result .
Everyone else has just got on with it...
What precisely has Mrs May being getting on with?
Buying snooker balls to make into necklaces.
She can quietly slip them into a sock if Mogg, Boris, Davis et al start making trouble at conference.
F1: if you're tempted to back Red Bull, it's tricky to call between qualifying and the race. Their DNF rate is atrocious, but they'll lose out on engine modes in qualifying (although that matters far less at Singapore than elsewhere). I'd probably go for qualifying, but bear that in mind when betting.
I wonder about laying Vettel* at 2.4/2.5 on Betfair - a lot can go wrong in Singapore. Perhaps wait until after qualifying ?
The only "chaos" I've noticed is from the political class who have been running around like headless chickens since 23rd June 2016 trying to find ever more ingenious ways to thwart the result .
40. Ultimately, the position of the Electoral Commission on what amounts to an “expense incurred” within the meaning of section 111 of PPERA appeared to offer little improvement on the well known elephant test of “I know one when I see one”. That is not a satisfactory approach in circumstances where a person who reports referendum expenses incorrectly is potentially guilty of a criminal offence.
Wow, that is stinging.
Edit: I see Carlotta got there first.
Would it not make more sense for the EC to just not give advice to anyone, ever?
What would then be the point of the EC?
To make rulings on whether someone has broken the law. It might deter people from trying to game the system.
Given how challenging a year this is for the Democrats there must be an equivalently challenging year coming up for the Republicans presumably. Especially when we consider that it's not that long ago that the Democrats had close to 60 seats including caucus. Anyone know when that is?
I'm going to guess it was 2010 the Republicans did well (Obama midterm) and then 2016 (Trump victory) so 2022 next but that is just a guess.
In 2020 it will be the Republicans who will be defending more seats: up for election will be 21 Republican, 11 Democratic, and 2 unknown because they depend on the special elections this time (likely to be one each).
If it's another blue wave election with a new President taking out Trump that could be brutal. How many of those 21 are in purple states?
"Some Labour Brexiters could still swing behind Mrs May but few would want to avoid a chance to bring down the government."
This is the critical sentence from that article, and it's hard to know how true it really is. It depends partially on what they think the effect of bringing down the government would be (which people have variously claimed would be anything from No Deal to Remain), but certainly a lot of Lab MPs are unenthusiastic about making Corbyn PM.
Also unclear how exactly it would lead to bringing down the government. Much more likely to bring down May- but once that's happened, who are these Tory or DUP MPs who are going to say "Eh, might as well have a general election now"?
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Labour would be even stupider than any of us thought if they don't take the chance to try and bring the government down. I'm sure JC will find a way to fuck it up when the day of reckoning comes.
We've had political flirtations with both "business" people and "military" people for some time. Go back far enough and most leading politicians had military careers - Attlee was a Major in WW1 and both Heath and Healey were WW2 officers to name but three.
As time has progressed, the path from military service to a political life has diminished, the obvious exceptions being Paddy Ashdown and Iain Duncan-Smith both of whom get plenty of stick on here these days.
The "business" phase was more from the 1990s and led to Archie Norman being regarded at one time as the great hope of the Conservatives because he had run ASDA. We see Trump and Berlusconi as examples of "business" people moving into politics but that is in different political cultures.
I've always been wary of assuming success in business translates into success in politics. I remember Richard Branson coming over as diffident and unimpressive on election night in 1997. I wonder if the skills for business where you can command, cajole and coerce don't translate well into a political world where you have to argue, persuade and convince.
In the public sector, I've seen private sector executives come into senior positions in County Councils and quickly realise they can't treat Councillors and fellow Officers the way they did in the private sector world.
Private sector executives are still accountable to shareholders
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Labour would be even stupider than any of us thought if they don't take the chance to try and bring the government down. I'm sure JC will find a way to fuck it up when the day of reckoning comes.
Not exactly a principled position, though. And significantly increases the possibility of no deal Brexit.
Great article. Looks like the Betfair market and the 538 probabilities are out of whack in some, notably north dakota Montana and West Virgina. Potentially a lot of value.
Electoral Commission obviously in real trouble; and a further blow to our institutions and rule-makers and enforcers when already under scrutiny.
Thanks, I'm on Joe Tester there to 200 liability. Looks the pick of the bunch comparing 538 and Betfair probabilities.
Given how challenging a year this is for the Democrats there must be an equivalently challenging year coming up for the Republicans presumably. Especially when we consider that it's not that long ago that the Democrats had close to 60 seats including caucus. Anyone know when that is?
I'm going to guess it was 2010 the Republicans did well (Obama midterm) and then 2016 (Trump victory) so 2022 next but that is just a guess.
In 2020 it will be the Republicans who will be defending more seats: up for election will be 21 Republican, 11 Democratic, and 2 unknown because they depend on the special elections this time (likely to be one each).
If it's another blue wave election with a new President taking out Trump that could be brutal. How many of those 21 are in purple states?
Doesn't exactly answer your question, but in 2020 it's the class 2 seats which are up for election. Those were last contested in 2014 which was a huge year for the GOP, where 9 seats changed hands from Dem to GOP.
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
So Labour would be handmaiden of a No Deal Brexit eh?
When will the Momentum kids wake up to what their leader really represents?
Someone* proposed a motion at our CLP calling on Labour to reject May's deal and aim for a No Deal Brexit. Only 2 votes on favour. Leadership clearly out of tune with the rank and file.
The Dutch government expelled two alleged Russian spies this year after they were accused of planning to hack into a Swiss chemicals laboratory where novichok nerve agent samples from the Salisbury attack were analysed, it has emerged.
Labour would be even stupider than any of us thought if they don't take the chance to try and bring the government down. I'm sure JC will find a way to fuck it up when the day of reckoning comes.
Not exactly a principled position, though. And significantly increases the possibility of no deal Brexit.
Does it? Perhaps it makes the EU more likely to want to do a deal with a known party?
Great article. Looks like the Betfair market and the 538 probabilities are out of whack in some, notably north dakota Montana and West Virgina. Potentially a lot of value.
Electoral Commission obviously in real trouble; and a further blow to our institutions and rule-makers and enforcers when already under scrutiny.
Thanks, I'm on Joe Tester there to 200 liability. Looks the pick of the bunch comparing 538 and Betfair probabilities.
A few days ago I got around 1.66 on Tester in Montana and 1.44 on Menendez in NJ. Couldn't get very much on, though.
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Ignoring the fact that oppositions tend to oppose, why would remainers pass up the chance of a GE that has the scope to lead to an extension/withdrawal of A50, second referendum... etc to take at best (from their perspective) a BINO vassal state deal? It doesn’t make sense.
Labour can credibly say the government fails the Davis ‘exact same benefits’ test unless the deal a) doesn’t require additional government expenditure on transitioning out, b) doesn’t give rise to any form of tariff or non-tariff barriers and c) gives us as much influence over the rules that will bind us in future as we currently have. May is not going to find a way to tick all of those.
The Labour Brexiters might back May because they are more worried about losing Brexit than anything else - they would be the only ones.
Given how challenging a year this is for the Democrats there must be an equivalently challenging year coming up for the Republicans presumably. Especially when we consider that it's not that long ago that the Democrats had close to 60 seats including caucus. Anyone know when that is?
I'm going to guess it was 2010 the Republicans did well (Obama midterm) and then 2016 (Trump victory) so 2022 next but that is just a guess.
In 2020 it will be the Republicans who will be defending more seats: up for election will be 21 Republican, 11 Democratic, and 2 unknown because they depend on the special elections this time (likely to be one each).
If it's another blue wave election with a new President taking out Trump that could be brutal. How many of those 21 are in purple states?
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
They will be voting for a GE to decide.
Its simple stuff.
No they won't, as they want neither Corbyn nor the Tories
The Dutch government expelled two alleged Russian spies this year after they were accused of planning to hack into a Swiss chemicals laboratory where novichok nerve agent samples from the Salisbury attack were analysed, it has emerged.
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
Given Mogg and Co will vote against the Government Umunna and Co are perfectly entitled to vote with the Government
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Ignoring the fact that oppositions tend to oppose, why would remainers pass up the chance of a GE that has the scope to lead to an extension/withdrawal of A50, second referendum... etc to take at best (from their perspective) a BINO vassal state deal? It doesn’t make sense.
Labour can credibly say the government fails the Davis ‘exact same benefits’ test unless the deal a) doesn’t require additional government expenditure on transitioning out, b) doesn’t give rise to any form of tariff or non-tariff barriers and c) gives us as much influence over the rules that will bind us in future as we currently have. May is not going to find a way to tick all of those.
The Labour Brexiters might back May because they are more worried about losing Brexit than anything else - they would be the only ones.
As the BINO Brexit May would oppose would be identical to the maximum Corbyn could get from Barnier given Corbyn's commitment to leave the single market and as they hate Corbyn
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
I think it would be a function of no deal being the default situation in March. If the government closes its eyes and waits for the country to fall off a cliff, then the only recourse the Commons definitely has is a no confidence vote. Ultimately the NC vote becomes a choice of ‘no deal - or something else?’ and I’m not sure that a majority would choose ‘no deal’ at that point.
The obvious way to avert it would be an extension of the A50 period which would probably get through with Labour support - unless Labour believed they could force a GE by voting that down too.
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
I dont think there is one without a GE do you?
There will not be a GE. The party may not like the deal but they dislike Corbyn far more and and will not lose a vnoc in the HOC
Great article. Looks like the Betfair market and the 538 probabilities are out of whack in some, notably north dakota Montana and West Virgina. Potentially a lot of value.
Electoral Commission obviously in real trouble; and a further blow to our institutions and rule-makers and enforcers when already under scrutiny.
Thanks, I'm on Joe Tester there to 200 liability. Looks the pick of the bunch comparing 538 and Betfair probabilities.
A few days ago I got around 1.66 on Tester in Montana and 1.44 on Menendez in NJ. Couldn't get very much on, though.
I think the Betfair premium charge cuts my odds down to 1.29 #Sadface# (The lay is £70 @ 3.78) ... still could make a sub 100% book (in theory) with Paddy Power's odds on the other side though ^^;
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
I dont think there is one without a GE do you?
True, but there isn't one with a GE either.
Withdraw or extend A50 “to give time to sort out the Tories’ mess” would be plan B. Which might turn into a second referendum after the fact, but definitely not before.
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
I dont think there is one without a GE do you?
True, but there isn't one with a GE either.
Why whats the result?
A majority Lab Government or one with like minded SNP support would undoubtedly get a soft BREXIT like the one BigG TSE and you want through IMO
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
I dont think there is one without a GE do you?
True, but there isn't one with a GE either.
Why whats the result?
A majority Lab Government or one with like minded SNP support would undoubtedly get a soft BREXIT like the one BigG TSE and you want through IMO
By the 29th March - and the idea SNP will work for any kind of Brexit is fantasy
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
I dont think there is one without a GE do you?
There will not be a GE. The party may not like the deal but they dislike Corbyn far more and and will not lose a vnoc in the HOC
Well if thats true May should make it clear her deal is a VONC and she wins then
Then a future GE tells the Tories if they endorse that position or not
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
I dont think there is one without a GE do you?
True, but there isn't one with a GE either.
Why whats the result?
A majority Lab Government or one with like minded SNP support would undoubtedly get a soft BREXIT like the one BigG TSE and you want through IMO
So the plan is to vote down the deal on the off chance that it leads to a GE which returns a Labour-led government which agrees something very like the deal, probably with SNP support (despite the fact that the SNP want maximum chaos)?
Still managing to get "Vote Leave" and "breaking the law" in the same sentence.
That's because the High Court held that they did. The criticism of the Electoral Commission is that they showed far too much latitude to Vote Leave, not that it had unfairly penalised it. The case was brought by Remain supporters for that reason.
40. Ultimately, the position of the Electoral Commission on what amounts to an “expense incurred” within the meaning of section 111 of PPERA appeared to offer little improvement on the well known elephant test of “I know one when I see one”. That is not a satisfactory approach in circumstances where a person who reports referendum expenses incorrectly is potentially guilty of a criminal offence.
Wow, that is stinging.
Edit: I see Carlotta got there first.
Would it not make more sense for the EC to just not give advice to anyone, ever?
What would then be the point of the EC?
So Vote Leave broke the law because they did what the EC advised them to do? Where does that leave BeLeave?
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
I dont think there is one without a GE do you?
True, but there isn't one with a GE either.
Why whats the result?
A majority Lab Government or one with like minded SNP support would undoubtedly get a soft BREXIT like the one BigG TSE and you want through IMO
By the 29th March - and the idea SNP will work for any kind of Brexit is fantasy
Getting a May plan passed by then is also Fantasy IMO.
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
I dont think there is one without a GE do you?
There will not be a GE. The party may not like the deal but they dislike Corbyn far more and and will not lose a vnoc in the HOC
Well if thats true May should make it clear her deal is a VONC and she wins then
Then a future GE tells the Tories if they endorse that position or not
She can’t make it a NC vote. Even if she immediately calls one in herself, she can’t force MPs to vote the same way in both. She can say she will resign as PM but that doesn’t cause a GE. Also May doesn’t do resigning does she?
Great article. Looks like the Betfair market and the 538 probabilities are out of whack in some, notably north dakota Montana and West Virgina. Potentially a lot of value.
Electoral Commission obviously in real trouble; and a further blow to our institutions and rule-makers and enforcers when already under scrutiny.
Thanks, I'm on Joe Tester there to 200 liability. Looks the pick of the bunch comparing 538 and Betfair probabilities.
A few days ago I got around 1.66 on Tester in Montana and 1.44 on Menendez in NJ. Couldn't get very much on, though.
I think the Betfair premium charge cuts my odds down to 1.29 #Sadface# (The lay is £70 @ 3.78) ... still could make a sub 100% book (in theory) with Paddy Power's odds on the other side though ^^;
I still do't fully understand the Premium charge. I have a lifetime allowance that doesn't seem to go down that much, even after winnings, but still a top up payment on top of commission (but no-where near 20%)
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
I dont think there is one without a GE do you?
True, but there isn't one with a GE either.
Why whats the result?
A majority Lab Government or one with like minded SNP support would undoubtedly get a soft BREXIT like the one BigG TSE and you want through IMO
So the plan is to vote down the deal on the off chance that it leads to a GE which returns a Labour-led government which agrees something very like the deal, probably with SNP support (despite the fact that the SNP want maximum chaos)?
I have been saying for months that Labour would vote against Chequers or whatever deal May might get - why would they take the blame for a crap outcome.
Only two options - CETA (which will pass as Tory remainers will back it) or No Deal.
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
I dont think there is one without a GE do you?
There will not be a GE. The party may not like the deal but they dislike Corbyn far more and and will not lose a vnoc in the HOC
Well if thats true May should make it clear her deal is a VONC and she wins then
Then a future GE tells the Tories if they endorse that position or not
Two different things. The deal vote is not the same as a vnoc on the government in the HOC. On that the party would vote as one and defeat the vnoc
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
Given Mogg and Co will vote against the Government Umunna and Co are perfectly entitled to vote with the Government
'Entitled to'? Even if there's a 3 line whip? Would they want to?
Still managing to get "Vote Leave" and "breaking the law" in the same sentence.
That's because the High Court held that they did. The criticism of the Electoral Commission is that they showed far too much latitude to Vote Leave, not that it had unfairly penalised it. The case was brought by Remain supporters for that reason.
The criticism is not that they showed too much latitude to Vote Leave, but that they misled them (and then had the gall to fine them for following the advice they themselves had given).
If they hadn't misled them, Vote Leave wouldn't have broken the law.
This mess is 100% the fault of the Electoral Commission.
40. Ultimately, the position of the Electoral Commission on what amounts to an “expense incurred” within the meaning of section 111 of PPERA appeared to offer little improvement on the well known elephant test of “I know one when I see one”. That is not a satisfactory approach in circumstances where a person who reports referendum expenses incorrectly is potentially guilty of a criminal offence.
Wow, that is stinging.
Edit: I see Carlotta got there first.
Would it not make more sense for the EC to just not give advice to anyone, ever?
What would then be the point of the EC?
So Vote Leave broke the law because they did what the EC advised them to do? Where does that leave BeLeave?
It's probably net good news for BeLeave, but not for the reasons that BeLeave might have hoped.
The High Court has effectively upheld the Electoral Commission's later view of the donation (in stingingly robust terms). However, since the Leave campaigns appear to have been influenced by the Electoral Commission's earlier views, that is likely to have an impact on the appropriate level of punishment.
F1: just checking the practice times. Suspect Mercedes are just laden with fuel, but very close on times with Renault. Red Bull top, Vettel a little way back, everyone else a day and a half off the pace.
Mercedes didn’t use the fastest ‘hypersoft’ tyres, which are up to a second a lap quicker.
The obvious way to avert it would be an extension of the A50 period which would probably get through with Labour support - unless Labour believed they could force a GE by voting that down too.
Does parliament need to vote for an extension? My understanding was that the UK PM and the leaders of the other member states can make it happen, and if they do the EU Withdrawal Act automatically postpones itself.
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If or when the HoC tells TM to stick her deal up her hole she will resign. The only way to resolve the ensuing political and economic crisis will be a GE. The country isn't going stand for a tory coronation and unelected PM considering they got us into this fucking mess in the first place.
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
I dont think there is one without a GE do you?
True, but there isn't one with a GE either.
Why whats the result?
A majority Lab Government or one with like minded SNP support would undoubtedly get a soft BREXIT like the one BigG TSE and you want through IMO
By the 29th March - and the idea SNP will work for any kind of Brexit is fantasy
Getting a May plan passed by then is also Fantasy IMO.
Why do you think thats possible?
If TM comes back with a deal and it passes we leave at the end of march. If she loses we still leave at the end of march
The only "chaos" I've noticed is from the political class who have been running around like headless chickens since 23rd June 2016 trying to find ever more ingenious ways to thwart the result .
Everyone else has just got on with it...
very funny. Not that it might seem like it at times but at least some of our elected representatives try to fulfil their mandate of improving the lot of their constituents and not making them worse off.
Still managing to get "Vote Leave" and "breaking the law" in the same sentence.
That's because the High Court held that they did. The criticism of the Electoral Commission is that they showed far too much latitude to Vote Leave, not that it had unfairly penalised it. The case was brought by Remain supporters for that reason.
This mess is 100% the fault of the Electoral Commission.
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If or when the HoC tells TM to stick her deal up her hole she will resign. The only way to resolve the ensuing political and economic crisis will be a GE. The country isn't going stand for a tory coronation and unelected PM considering they got us into this fucking mess in the first place.
“The country” doesn’t decide. The House of Commons does. And May needs a VONC from the Tory party to chuck her out - so we have several options, none of which lead directly to a Labour Government.
The obvious way to avert it would be an extension of the A50 period which would probably get through with Labour support - unless Labour believed they could force a GE by voting that down too.
Does parliament need to vote for an extension? My understanding was that the UK PM and the leaders of the other member states can make it happen, and if they do the EU Withdrawal Act automatically postpones itself.
I’m not sure - it would have to be pretty watertight or there would be some interesting Supreme Court cases the next day. Is that based on the text of the Withdrawal Act or general executive powers in relation to international treaties?
Still managing to get "Vote Leave" and "breaking the law" in the same sentence.
That's because the High Court held that they did. The criticism of the Electoral Commission is that they showed far too much latitude to Vote Leave, not that it had unfairly penalised it. The case was brought by Remain supporters for that reason.
The criticism is not that they showed too much latitude to Vote Leave, but that they misled them (and then had the gall to fine them for following the advice they themselves had given).
If they hadn't misled them, Vote Leave wouldn't have broken the law.
This mess is 100% the fault of the Electoral Commission.
It's too much to hope for any consistency from the Leave side, but they have seamlessly executed a volte face today. This was what Matthew Elliott said previously:
"They've listened to these, quite frankly marginal characters who came out in March, and listened to their stories, but haven't had evidence from Vote Leave side of things.
"I think it is a huge breach of natural justice that they haven't wanted to listen to our opinions and our story and we were the people running the campaign.
"We are the people who could give them the facts, rather than basing all their opinion on the fantasists."
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
I dont think there is one without a GE do you?
True, but there isn't one with a GE either.
Why whats the result?
A majority Lab Government or one with like minded SNP support would undoubtedly get a soft BREXIT like the one BigG TSE and you want through IMO
By the 29th March - and the idea SNP will work for any kind of Brexit is fantasy
Getting a May plan passed by then is also Fantasy IMO.
Why do you think thats possible?
If TM comes back with a deal and it passes we leave at the end of march. If she loses we still leave at the end of march
If we 'No Deal' leave at the end of March (and how many people think that would be allowed to happen?) then how many Tories will be elected at the following GE?
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If May fails to get Chequers through what is plan B
I dont think there is one without a GE do you?
True, but there isn't one with a GE either.
Why whats the result?
A majority Lab Government or one with like minded SNP support would undoubtedly get a soft BREXIT like the one BigG TSE and you want through IMO
By the 29th March - and the idea SNP will work for any kind of Brexit is fantasy
Getting a May plan passed by then is also Fantasy IMO.
Why do you think thats possible?
If TM comes back with a deal and it passes we leave at the end of march. If she loses we still leave at the end of march
Well, unless we don’t... are you assuming Parliament would just sit by and watch a no deal exit happen?
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If or when the HoC tells TM to stick her deal up her hole she will resign. The only way to resolve the ensuing political and economic crisis will be a GE. The country isn't going stand for a tory coronation and unelected PM considering they got us into this fucking mess in the first place.
Nothing the Country can do if the conservative party defeat a vnoc
Still managing to get "Vote Leave" and "breaking the law" in the same sentence.
That's because the High Court held that they did. The criticism of the Electoral Commission is that they showed far too much latitude to Vote Leave, not that it had unfairly penalised it. The case was brought by Remain supporters for that reason.
The criticism is not that they showed too much latitude to Vote Leave, but that they misled them (and then had the gall to fine them for following the advice they themselves had given).
If they hadn't misled them, Vote Leave wouldn't have broken the law.
This mess is 100% the fault of the Electoral Commission.
It's too much to hope for any consistency from the Leave side, but they have seamlessly executed a volte face today. This was what Matthew Elliott said previously:
"They've listened to these, quite frankly marginal characters who came out in March, and listened to their stories, but haven't had evidence from Vote Leave side of things.
"I think it is a huge breach of natural justice that they haven't wanted to listen to our opinions and our story and we were the people running the campaign.
"We are the people who could give them the facts, rather than basing all their opinion on the fantasists."
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If or when the HoC tells TM to stick her deal up her hole she will resign. The only way to resolve the ensuing political and economic crisis will be a GE. The country isn't going stand for a tory coronation and unelected PM considering they got us into this fucking mess in the first place.
She won't resign. She'll seamlessly change direction. That is how she is.
What the country will or won't stand for means nothing in the context of the FTPA and the Cons holding their nerve.
Of course the country will be well and truly and well and truly and well and truly fucked but you know, that's just a by the by.
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
If or when the HoC tells TM to stick her deal up her hole she will resign. The only way to resolve the ensuing political and economic crisis will be a GE. The country isn't going stand for a tory coronation and unelected PM considering they got us into this fucking mess in the first place.
Nothing the Country can do if the conservative party defeat a vnoc
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
They will be voting for a GE to decide.
Its simple stuff.
What is the Labour position on Brexit?
What will it be tomorrow?
They have had more than one position on a single day and impossible to count them all.
How did one of their mp's describe their ever so cunning plan?
Still managing to get "Vote Leave" and "breaking the law" in the same sentence.
That's because the High Court held that they did. The criticism of the Electoral Commission is that they showed far too much latitude to Vote Leave, not that it had unfairly penalised it. The case was brought by Remain supporters for that reason.
The criticism is not that they showed too much latitude to Vote Leave, but that they misled them (and then had the gall to fine them for following the advice they themselves had given).
If they hadn't misled them, Vote Leave wouldn't have broken the law.
This mess is 100% the fault of the Electoral Commission.
It's too much to hope for any consistency from the Leave side, but they have seamlessly executed a volte face today. This was what Matthew Elliott said previously:
"They've listened to these, quite frankly marginal characters who came out in March, and listened to their stories, but haven't had evidence from Vote Leave side of things.
"I think it is a huge breach of natural justice that they haven't wanted to listen to our opinions and our story and we were the people running the campaign.
"We are the people who could give them the facts, rather than basing all their opinion on the fantasists."
He's spinning rather a different story today.
The facts being that the EC said it was okay?
The facts being that Matthew Elliott was previously launching a shameless smear campaign against people who now on his own revised account have been completely vindicated (but who no doubt he won't be apologising profusely to).
Corbyn Labour maybe, Remainers like Umunna may vote with May if any deal is largely single market and customs union in all but name as is likely rather than vote with Mogg, Boris and the ERG against May and effectively for No Deal
Any Labour MP who votes with the Government on what is effectively a VOC and a GE should be immediately deselected.
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
How do you get to an election even if deal falls
I think it would be a function of no deal being the default situation in March. If the government closes its eyes and waits for the country to fall off a cliff, then the only recourse the Commons definitely has is a no confidence vote. Ultimately the NC vote becomes a choice of ‘no deal - or something else?’ and I’m not sure that a majority would choose ‘no deal’ at that point.
The obvious way to avert it would be an extension of the A50 period which would probably get through with Labour support - unless Labour believed they could force a GE by voting that down too.
I hope whoever predicts that the UK might get into a panic and need a sudden A50 extension has cleared it privately with all EU member states.
Comments
https://brexitcentral.com/electoral-commissions-defeat-high-court-matters/
The Electoral Commission let Vote Leave break EU referendum spending laws because the watchdog misinterpreted them, the High Court has ruled.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45519676
Most amusingly,
But Jolyon Maugham QC of the Good Law Project, which brought the High Court challenge, said the ruling proved the watchdog "unlawfully tilted the playing field in favour of Leave" in the 2016 referendum.
Mr I'll Sue Ya appears to have had his latest attempt at a legal wheeze blow up in his face.
The Senate is not impossible either but would require them to likely gain Arizona, Nevada or if they lose a seat like Florida or Indiana or North Dakota maybe to take Tennnessee or Texas too
Ultimately, the position of the Electoral Commission on what amounts to an “expense incurred” within the meaning of section 111 of PPERA appeared to offer little improvement on the well known elephant test of “I know one when I see one”. That is not a satisfactory approach in circumstances where a person who reports referendum expenses incorrectly is potentially guilty of a criminal offence.
http://2mbg6fgb1kl380gtk22pbxgw-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/VOTE-LEAVE-CO-4908-2017-Good-Law-Project-v.-Electoral-Commission-Final-Judgment.pdf
To be fair keeping both Corbyn and Boris out of No 10 is quite an important role..
40. Ultimately, the position of the Electoral Commission on what amounts to an “expense incurred” within the meaning of section 111 of PPERA appeared to offer little improvement on the well known elephant test of “I know one when I see one”. That is not a satisfactory approach in circumstances where a person who reports referendum expenses incorrectly is potentially guilty of a criminal offence.
Wow, that is stinging.
Edit: I see Carlotta got there first.
Your articles are an excellent addition to PB.
The idea was rejected by the Scottish Government.
Instead, a process was put in place that would see informal complaints initially examined by the Scottish Government’s head of HR before being passed on to the permanent secretary and deputy first minister, who at the time was Nicola Sturgeon.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/alex-salmond-bullied-employees-union-13241437
https://political-atlas.com/?races=senate
Electoral Commission obviously in real trouble; and a further blow to our institutions and rule-makers and enforcers when already under scrutiny.
https://youtu.be/6nT1fBCcf4o
(c) Scum 1979
Perhaps wait until after qualifying ?
* Regenmeister he ain’t.
When will the Momentum kids wake up to what their leader really represents?
This is the critical sentence from that article, and it's hard to know how true it really is. It depends partially on what they think the effect of bringing down the government would be (which people have variously claimed would be anything from No Deal to Remain), but certainly a lot of Lab MPs are unenthusiastic about making Corbyn PM.
Also unclear how exactly it would lead to bringing down the government. Much more likely to bring down May- but once that's happened, who are these Tory or DUP MPs who are going to say "Eh, might as well have a general election now"?
Its simple stuff.
She appears to be saying that, even if they agree with everything in the proposed deal, they will still vote against it.
That is cheap opportunism and exposes them for what they are.
Even if this 'wheeze' succeeds, the timetable just doesn't add up.
Plus no-one has a clue as to what Labour's plan for any negotiation would be. As they have never actually put one forward that made any sense.
It is cheap, lazy posturing. Nothing more.
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201809140019.html
Which is probably a metaphor for something....
Surely even Chukka cant be that stupid unless he would rather have a Tory BREXIT than a Thornberry/ Starmer one
*No prizes for guessing who.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/sep/14/dutch-expelled-russians-over-alleged-novichok-laboratory-hacking-plot
The Deal will not meet Labours tests upon which they were always going to judge it.
Labour can credibly say the government fails the Davis ‘exact same benefits’ test unless the deal a) doesn’t require additional government expenditure on transitioning out, b) doesn’t give rise to any form of tariff or non-tariff barriers and c) gives us as much influence over the rules that will bind us in future as we currently have. May is not going to find a way to tick all of those.
The Labour Brexiters might back May because they are more worried about losing Brexit than anything else - they would be the only ones.
I count:
- Arizona
- Colorado
- Iowa
- Maine
- North Carolina
I dont think there is one without a GE do you?
The obvious way to avert it would be an extension of the A50 period which would probably get through with Labour support - unless Labour believed they could force a GE by voting that down too.
A majority Lab Government or one with like minded SNP support would undoubtedly get a soft BREXIT like the one BigG TSE and you want through IMO
Then a future GE tells the Tories if they endorse that position or not
Why do you think thats possible?
Only two options - CETA (which will pass as Tory remainers will back it) or No Deal.
Would they want to?
If they hadn't misled them, Vote Leave wouldn't have broken the law.
This mess is 100% the fault of the Electoral Commission.
Its about the Serena umpire i presume
The High Court has effectively upheld the Electoral Commission's later view of the donation (in stingingly robust terms). However, since the Leave campaigns appear to have been influenced by the Electoral Commission's earlier views, that is likely to have an impact on the appropriate level of punishment.
https://news.sky.com/story/vote-leave-broke-campaign-spending-rules-says-electoral-commission-11425636
"They've listened to these, quite frankly marginal characters who came out in March, and listened to their stories, but haven't had evidence from Vote Leave side of things.
"I think it is a huge breach of natural justice that they haven't wanted to listen to our opinions and our story and we were the people running the campaign.
"We are the people who could give them the facts, rather than basing all their opinion on the fantasists."
He's spinning rather a different story today.
What the country will or won't stand for means nothing in the context of the FTPA and the Cons holding their nerve.
Of course the country will be well and truly and well and truly and well and truly fucked but you know, that's just a by the by.
What will it be tomorrow?
They have had more than one position on a single day and impossible to count them all.
How did one of their mp's describe their ever so cunning plan?
oh that's right "utter bollocks"
Labour the Ratner of politics.