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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Nabavi on the US Senate elections

On the 6th November, 33 of the 100 seats in the US Senate come up for election. The Democrats currently hold 47 seats and two independents caucus with them, so they need a net gain of two for them to get control1. Unfortunately for the Democrats, the starting position is rather difficult; of the 35 seats up for election, only 9 are Republican-held, and of those 4 are solid and 3 are fairly safe. On the other side, of the 26 seats the Democrats are defending, several are potential Republican gains.

Read the full story here

GIN1138

FPT on PB Poster Boy: Rory The Tory:

JosiasJessop said:

I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job.

(runs for cover)

OK:

1. He waffles a lot.

2. He fidgets a lot.

3. He slouches in his chair and throws his arm over the back of the chair, thus looking somewhat disrespectful to the audience.

4. Often looks away from the camera when speaking making himself look like he's got something to hide.

5. Just generally doesn't look comfortable in a public arena.

EDIT: I was perhaps a bit harsh calling him "a waste of space" But he's certainly not leadership material.

MarqueeMark

Excellent detail, Richard. I suspect the Dems will fall just short - itself an excellent result, given the way the deck is stacked against them this time around.

JosiasJessop

GIN1138 said:

FPT on PB Poster Boy: Rory The Tory:

JosiasJessop said:

I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job.

(runs for cover)

OK:

1. He waffles a lot.

2. He fidgets a lot.

3. He slouches in his chair and throws his arm over the back of the chair, thus looking somewhat disrespectful to the audience.

4. Often looks away from the camera when speaking making himself look like he's got something to hide.

5. Just generally doesn't look comfortable in a public arena.

EDIT: I was perhaps a bit harsh calling him "a waste of space" But he's certainly not leadership material.

That's enough about me.

Morris_Dancer

Humbug, my previous reply was to an identical thread trapped in a parallel dimension.

Not bet much on this, just a little on Texas going blue.

stodge

MarqueeMark said:

Excellent detail, Richard. I suspect the Dems will fall just short - itself an excellent result, given the way the deck is stacked against them this time around.

Indeed, a 50-50 split with the GOP retaining control via VP Pence is a strong possibility.

AlastairMeeks

Spartan if of the day:

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1040529008776159232

Philip_Thompson

Given how challenging a year this is for the Democrats there must be an equivalently challenging year coming up for the Republicans presumably. Especially when we consider that it's not that long ago that the Democrats had close to 60 seats including caucus. Anyone know when that is?

I'm going to guess it was 2010 the Republicans did well (Obama midterm) and then 2016 (Trump victory) so 2022 next but that is just a guess.

stodge

Morning all

We've had political flirtations with both "business" people and "military" people for some time. Go back far enough and most leading politicians had military careers - Attlee was a Major in WW1 and both Heath and Healey were WW2 officers to name but three.

As time has progressed, the path from military service to a political life has diminished, the obvious exceptions being Paddy Ashdown and Iain Duncan-Smith both of whom get plenty of stick on here these days.

The "business" phase was more from the 1990s and led to Archie Norman being regarded at one time as the great hope of the Conservatives because he had run ASDA. We see Trump and Berlusconi as examples of "business" people moving into politics but that is in different political cultures.

I've always been wary of assuming success in business translates into success in politics. I remember Richard Branson coming over as diffident and unimpressive on election night in 1997. I wonder if the skills for business where you can command, cajole and coerce don't translate well into a political world where you have to argue, persuade and convince.

In the public sector, I've seen private sector executives come into senior positions in County Councils and quickly realise they can't treat Councillors and fellow Officers the way they did in the private sector world.

Pulpstar

If the GOP loses control (Which is well possible) then that will be the big news story. But for betting purposes this bet still has a good chance to win even in that scenario... the story won't be Democrats fail to gain Majority.

Nigelb

GIN1138 said:

FPT on PB Poster Boy: Rory The Tory:

JosiasJessop said:

I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job.

(runs for cover)

OK:

1. He waffles a lot.

2. He fidgets a lot.

3. He slouches in his chair and throws his arm over the back of the chair, thus looking somewhat disrespectful to the audience.

4. Often looks away from the camera when speaking making himself look like he's got something to hide.

5. Just generally doesn't look comfortable in a public arena.

EDIT: I was perhaps a bit harsh calling him "a waste of space" But he's certainly not leadership material.

He has the air of a man who suffers agonies when required to make a decision.
Not ideal in a politician.

TheScreamingEagles

Nigelb said:

GIN1138 said:

FPT on PB Poster Boy: Rory The Tory:

JosiasJessop said:

I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job.

(runs for cover)

OK:

1. He waffles a lot.

2. He fidgets a lot.

3. He slouches in his chair and throws his arm over the back of the chair, thus looking somewhat disrespectful to the audience.

4. Often looks away from the camera when speaking making himself look like he's got something to hide.

5. Just generally doesn't look comfortable in a public arena.

EDIT: I was perhaps a bit harsh calling him "a waste of space" But he's certainly not leadership material.

He has the air of a man who suffers agonies when required to make a decision.
Not ideal in a politician.

Didn’t stop Theresa May from getting the top job.

rottenborough

AlastairMeeks said:

Spartan if of the day:

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1040529008776159232

If asked?

Richard_Nabavi

Philip_Thompson said:

Given how challenging a year this is for the Democrats there must be an equivalently challenging year coming up for the Republicans presumably. Especially when we consider that it's not that long ago that the Democrats had close to 60 seats including caucus. Anyone know when that is?

I'm going to guess it was 2010 the Republicans did well (Obama midterm) and then 2016 (Trump victory) so 2022 next but that is just a guess.

In 2020 it will be the Republicans who will be defending more seats: up for election will be 21 Republican, 11 Democratic, and 2 unknown because they depend on the special elections this time (likely to be one each).

AlastairMeeks

On topic, Richard's analysis makes a lot of sense and looks very likely to be profitable. That said, 2018 currently has the hallmarks of a wave year, so he might not hit the middle.

AlastairMeeks

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Spartan if of the day:

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1040529008776159232

If asked?

I like to think I know a fair bit about British politics and I can honestly say that I don't think I'd heard of George Freeman before this week.

JosiasJessop

Nigelb said:

GIN1138 said:

FPT on PB Poster Boy: Rory The Tory:

JosiasJessop said:

I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job.

(runs for cover)

OK:

1. He waffles a lot.

2. He fidgets a lot.

3. He slouches in his chair and throws his arm over the back of the chair, thus looking somewhat disrespectful to the audience.

4. Often looks away from the camera when speaking making himself look like he's got something to hide.

5. Just generally doesn't look comfortable in a public arena.

EDIT: I was perhaps a bit harsh calling him "a waste of space" But he's certainly not leadership material.

He has the air of a man who suffers agonies when required to make a decision.
Not ideal in a politician.

I see what you mean. But if that means he's *thinking* about the decision, then that puts him head and shoulders above many politicians for whom decisions are obviously drawn instinctively from their ideologies with zero thought...

Richard_Nabavi

AlastairMeeks said:

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Spartan if of the day:

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1040529008776159232

If asked?

I like to think I know a fair bit about British politics and I can honestly say that I don't think I'd heard of George Freeman before this week.

Me neither.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

JosiasJessop said:

Nigelb said:

GIN1138 said:

FPT on PB Poster Boy: Rory The Tory:

JosiasJessop said:

I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job.

(runs for cover)

OK:

1. He waffles a lot.

2. He fidgets a lot.

3. He slouches in his chair and throws his arm over the back of the chair, thus looking somewhat disrespectful to the audience.

4. Often looks away from the camera when speaking making himself look like he's got something to hide.

5. Just generally doesn't look comfortable in a public arena.

EDIT: I was perhaps a bit harsh calling him "a waste of space" But he's certainly not leadership material.

He has the air of a man who suffers agonies when required to make a decision.
Not ideal in a politician.

I see what you mean. But if that means he's *thinking* about the decision, then that puts him head and shoulders above many politicians for whom decisions are obviously drawn instinctively from their ideologies with zero thought...

Or what their SPADS tell them to think

TOPPING

AlastairMeeks said:

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Spartan if of the day:

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1040529008776159232

If asked?

I like to think I know a fair bit about British politics and I can honestly say that I don't think I'd heard of George Freeman before this week.

Yesterday, if asked, 98.947% of people would have said he's the guy with the grill. They still would today.

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

GIN1138 said:

FPT on PB Poster Boy: Rory The Tory:

JosiasJessop said:

I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job.

(runs for cover)

OK:

1. He waffles a lot.

2. He fidgets a lot.

3. He slouches in his chair and throws his arm over the back of the chair, thus looking somewhat disrespectful to the audience.

4. Often looks away from the camera when speaking making himself look like he's got something to hide.

5. Just generally doesn't look comfortable in a public arena.

EDIT: I was perhaps a bit harsh calling him "a waste of space" But he's certainly not leadership material.

He has the air of a man who suffers agonies when required to make a decision.
Not ideal in a politician.

Didn’t stop Theresa May from getting the top job.

I doubt they'll want to revisit the May Experience when they finally get her out of Maggie's Den!

Dura_Ace

AlastairMeeks said:

Spartan if of the day:

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1040529008776159232

The slogan for his campaign bus writes itself: FREEMAN ON THE LAND

A bald and flabby middle aged white man is just what the tories need in GE 2020.

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

GIN1138 said:

FPT on PB Poster Boy: Rory The Tory:

JosiasJessop said:

I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job.

(runs for cover)

OK:

1. He waffles a lot.

2. He fidgets a lot.

3. He slouches in his chair and throws his arm over the back of the chair, thus looking somewhat disrespectful to the audience.

4. Often looks away from the camera when speaking making himself look like he's got something to hide.

5. Just generally doesn't look comfortable in a public arena.

EDIT: I was perhaps a bit harsh calling him "a waste of space" But he's certainly not leadership material.

He has the air of a man who suffers agonies when required to make a decision.
Not ideal in a politician.

Didn’t stop Theresa May from getting the top job.

Deciding not to make a decision is not the same as being indecisive. May’s just an expert can kicker.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Ace, being a bald, flabby, white man never stopped the Kingpin achieving great success.

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Spartan if of the day:

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1040529008776159232

If asked?

I like to think I know a fair bit about British politics and I can honestly say that I don't think I'd heard of George Freeman before this week.

Me neither.

To give some idea how bad the odds are, David Gauke - who whatever you might think of him probably has a better chance than this guy is 310/500 on Betfair.

MarqueeMark

Dura_Ace said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Spartan if of the day:

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1040529008776159232

The slogan for his campaign bus writes itself: FREEMAN ON THE LAND

A bald and flabby middle aged white man is just what the tories need in GE 2020.

Freeman - or costly woman?

Nigelb

JosiasJessop said:

Nigelb said:

GIN1138 said:

FPT on PB Poster Boy: Rory The Tory:

JosiasJessop said:

I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job.

(runs for cover)

OK:

1. He waffles a lot.

2. He fidgets a lot.

3. He slouches in his chair and throws his arm over the back of the chair, thus looking somewhat disrespectful to the audience.

4. Often looks away from the camera when speaking making himself look like he's got something to hide.

5. Just generally doesn't look comfortable in a public arena.

EDIT: I was perhaps a bit harsh calling him "a waste of space" But he's certainly not leadership material.

He has the air of a man who suffers agonies when required to make a decision.
Not ideal in a politician.

I see what you mean. But if that means he's *thinking* about the decision, then that puts him head and shoulders above many politicians for whom decisions are obviously drawn instinctively from their ideologies with zero thought...

That might be true had he generated any evidence of actual wise decision making.

GIN1138

Guess she didn't want to talk.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-45517388/skripal-novichok-poising-rt-editor-hangs-up-on-newsnight

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

GIN1138 said:

FPT on PB Poster Boy: Rory The Tory:

JosiasJessop said:

I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job.

(runs for cover)

OK:

1. He waffles a lot.

2. He fidgets a lot.

3. He slouches in his chair and throws his arm over the back of the chair, thus looking somewhat disrespectful to the audience.

4. Often looks away from the camera when speaking making himself look like he's got something to hide.

5. Just generally doesn't look comfortable in a public arena.

EDIT: I was perhaps a bit harsh calling him "a waste of space" But he's certainly not leadership material.

He has the air of a man who suffers agonies when required to make a decision.
Not ideal in a politician.

Didn’t stop Theresa May from getting the top job.

In the (extremely unlikely) event of his having been in May's shoes, he'd probably have developed a couple of ulcers and suffered a nervous breakdown.

OblitusSumMe

stodge said:

Go back far enough and most leading politicians had military careers - Attlee was a Major in WW1 and both Heath and Healey were WW2 officers to name but three.

As time has progressed, the path from military service to a political life has diminished...

The fortunate lack of a world war in our recent history reduces the numbers of ex-officers available for a career in politics.

williamglenn

GIN1138 said:

Guess she didn't want to talk.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-45517388/skripal-novichok-poising-rt-editor-hangs-up-on-newsnight

Her specific point was actually correct. In the interview she’s clearly mocking the suspects and doesn’t play along. I think the intention was partly to humiliate them for screwing up the operation.

rkrkrk

Nice article.

On the individual races, I think Tennessee is value for the Dems, polls show a tossup and I just got on at 2.68. On the other hand Nevada is pretty tight, and I think the Republican is value at 2.98.

JosiasJessop

Nigelb said:

JosiasJessop said:

Nigelb said:

GIN1138 said:

FPT on PB Poster Boy: Rory The Tory:

JosiasJessop said:

I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job.

(runs for cover)

OK:

1. He waffles a lot.

2. He fidgets a lot.

3. He slouches in his chair and throws his arm over the back of the chair, thus looking somewhat disrespectful to the audience.

4. Often looks away from the camera when speaking making himself look like he's got something to hide.

5. Just generally doesn't look comfortable in a public arena.

EDIT: I was perhaps a bit harsh calling him "a waste of space" But he's certainly not leadership material.

He has the air of a man who suffers agonies when required to make a decision.
Not ideal in a politician.

I see what you mean. But if that means he's *thinking* about the decision, then that puts him head and shoulders above many politicians for whom decisions are obviously drawn instinctively from their ideologies with zero thought...

That might be true had he generated any evidence of actual wise decision making.

What politician has?

MikeSmithson

My betting strategy here has been to lay and overall Republican majority. That deals with Betfair's definition issue and is a much lower ask of the Democrats.

Richard_Nabavi

rkrkrk said:

Nice article.

On the individual races, I think Tennessee is value for the Dems, polls show a tossup and I just got on at 2.68. On the other hand Nevada is pretty tight, and I think the Republican is value at 2.98.

Tennessee is hard to assess, as the polling is rather thin. Nevada as you say is tight, 2.98 was good value.

I found this summary on the individual races very useful:

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2018-at-least-for-now-the-elephant-endures/

tlg86

Thanks Richard, sounds a good strategy.

Foxy

stodge said:

Morning all

We've had political flirtations with both "business" people and "military" people for some time. Go back far enough and most leading politicians had military careers - Attlee was a Major in WW1 and both Heath and Healey were WW2 officers to name but three.

As time has progressed, the path from military service to a political life has diminished, the obvious exceptions being Paddy Ashdown and Iain Duncan-Smith both of whom get plenty of stick on here these days.

The "business" phase was more from the 1990s and led to Archie Norman being regarded at one time as the great hope of the Conservatives because he had run ASDA. We see Trump and Berlusconi as examples of "business" people moving into politics but that is in different political cultures.

I've always been wary of assuming success in business translates into success in politics. I remember Richard Branson coming over as diffident and unimpressive on election night in 1997. I wonder if the skills for business where you can command, cajole and coerce don't translate well into a political world where you have to argue, persuade and convince.

In the public sector, I've seen private sector executives come into senior positions in County Councils and quickly realise they can't treat Councillors and fellow Officers the way they did in the private sector world.

I think none of Attlee, Heath and Healey were career soldiers, but rather did wartime service like most of their generation. I agree both the military and business are different skill sets to politics, particularly in a parliamentary rather than presidential system.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1040543741604507648

MarqueeMark

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1040543741604507648

Very much a way that the IRA tried to redecorate 10 Downing Street.

Stay classy, George....

MarqueeMark

The new high speed barely moving trian not going well then.

The Good Lady Wifi got stuck for over three hours on the Penzance bound side, as they tried to sort this mess out. People started getting out the broken train and walking, I gather.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-45519014

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1040545031583617024?s=21

Big_G_NorthWales

My wife has just joined the conservative party for the first time in her 79 years.

So that is one UKIPPER negated

Pulpstar

Not being a lawyer can someone tell me who has "won" this one ?
Guido reckons it is good for Grimes, Jo Maugham less so.
https://www.scribd.com/document/388589592/Good-Law-Project-v-Electoral-Commission#from_embed

Big_G_NorthWales

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1040545031583617024?s=21

She is so full of herself.

Pride comes before a fall (but to be fair I do not want her to fall off the White Cliffs of Dover)

Alanbrooke

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1040545031583617024?s=21

shes just adding to it

bonkers

Big_G_NorthWales

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1040543741604507648

That is not on George - You should know better, much better

FrancisUrquhart

Man 'shouting Allahu Akbar' drives car into a crowd in France before being wrestled to the ground by bystanders

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6167655/Man-drives-car-crowd-France-wrestled-ground-bystanders.html

MarqueeMark

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1040545031583617024?s=21

That crack in the cliff face looks ominous.....

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/alexkane221b/status/1040521720166277120?s=21

FeersumEnjineeya

MarqueeMark said:

Dura_Ace said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Spartan if of the day:

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1040529008776159232

The slogan for his campaign bus writes itself: FREEMAN ON THE LAND

A bald and flabby middle aged white man is just what the tories need in GE 2020.

Freeman - or costly woman?

Freemen on the land

Nigelb

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1040545031583617024?s=21

She is so full of herself.

Pride comes before a fall (but to be fair I do not want her to fall off the White Cliffs of Dover)

Very likely photoshopped, so I wouldn't be too concerned.

Big_G_NorthWales

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

DecrepitJohnL

FrancisUrquhart said:

Man 'shouting Allahu Akbar' drives car into a crowd in France before being wrestled to the ground by bystanders

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6167655/Man-drives-car-crowd-France-wrestled-ground-bystanders.html

The Mail says he was in a state of mental confusion. That's the trouble with terrorism now. Getting hold of guns and explosives was hard and expensive, and required a network that could be infiltrated or at least monitored. Now any lunatic can flip and grab a kitchen knife or his car keys on the way out.

FrancisUrquhart

DecrepitJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Man 'shouting Allahu Akbar' drives car into a crowd in France before being wrestled to the ground by bystanders

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6167655/Man-drives-car-crowd-France-wrestled-ground-bystanders.html

The Mail says he was in a state of mental confusion. That's the trouble with terrorism now. Getting hold of guns and explosives was hard and expensive, and required a network that could be infiltrated or at least monitored. Now any lunatic can flip and grab a kitchen knife or his car keys on the way out.

Well also you can recruit these people and you don't have to worry about if they can actually carry it out.

DecrepitJohnL

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Adamstoon1/status/1040543741604507648

That is not on George - You should know better, much better

Has there been an official CCHQ snowflake memo to object to a cartoon because the IRA wanted to blow it up decades ago? ? Btw if George was involved, surely the brickwork is the wrong colour?

oxfordsimon

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1040545031583617024?s=21

That crack in the cliff face looks ominous.....

Photoshoots like this just make it look about her ego rather than anything substantive.

oxfordsimon

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Still does not demonstrate that this behind the scenes financial stuff made any difference to the outcome.

GIN1138

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

tlg86

Pulpstar said:

Not being a lawyer can someone tell me who has "won" this one ?
Guido reckons it is good for Grimes, Jo Maugham less so.
https://www.scribd.com/document/388589592/Good-Law-Project-v-Electoral-Commission#from_embed

It seems to me that Maugham is spinning the ruling to say that the Electoral Commission helped Vote Leave to win the referendum. The reality is the EC cocked up and as such Vote Leave did nothing wrong.

GIN1138

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1040545031583617024?s=21

Is Gina Miller going to become Lib-Dem leader?

tlg86

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

https://tinyurl.com/y7ml6lbj

ToryJim

I'm wondering if yesterday's Trump Puerto Rico tweetmare take might firm up the Hispanic votes in Florida and Texas for the Dems. If it causes GOP leaning hispanics to sit this out and motivates a few more Dem and Ind hispanics to the polls in the Dem column then it could shake things up.

eek

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

Guido or at

https://www.scribd.com/document/388589592/Good-Law-Project-v-Electoral-Commission

GIN1138

tlg86 said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

https://tinyurl.com/y7ml6lbj

Thanks.

Nigelb

The House of Representatives going Democratic majority still looks pretty good value even at the much reduced odds, given how near the election now is.

This is a great stat:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/14/gop-midterms-retirements-house-823327
In the past six midterm elections, the president’s party has not retained a single open seat he failed to carry two years prior, according to an analysis by the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman...
There are 44 open seats this time round, and the Democrats ought to pick up a chunk of them.

Richard_Nabavi

tlg86 said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

https://tinyurl.com/y7ml6lbj

I think that means that Dominic Cummings was right - the Electoral Commission did say the donations via BeLeave were pukka (which he was surprised by at the time), and then had the gall to issue penalties for following their own advice.

Beverley_C

FeersumEnjineeya said:

MarqueeMark said:

Dura_Ace said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Spartan if of the day:

twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1040529008776159232

The slogan for his campaign bus writes itself: FREEMAN ON THE LAND

A bald and flabby middle aged white man is just what the tories need in GE 2020.

Freeman - or costly woman?

Freemen on the land

As long as it is not the Fremen riding in on giant sandworms

Big_G_NorthWales

oxfordsimon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Still does not demonstrate that this behind the scenes financial stuff made any difference to the outcome.

I am sure you are right that it had no real effect on the result

Big_G_NorthWales

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

On Guido

tlg86

Richard_Nabavi said:

tlg86 said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

https://tinyurl.com/y7ml6lbj

I think that means that Dominic Cummings was right - the Electoral Commission did say the donations via BeLeave were pukka (which he was surprised by at the time), and then had the gall to issue penalties for following their own advice.

The question that now needs to be asked is, "did the EC knowingly give wrong advice?" (to either help leave (unlikely, in my opinion) or to trip them up down the road).

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1040551690875928576

oxfordsimon

Richard_Nabavi said:

tlg86 said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

https://tinyurl.com/y7ml6lbj

I think that means that Dominic Cummings was right - the Electoral Commission did say the donations via BeLeave were pukka (which he was surprised by at the time), and then had the gall to issue penalties for following their own advice.

Does appear to be the situation.

Electoral Commission needs urgent reform - and better lawyers.

TheWhiteRabbit

Richard_Nabavi said:

tlg86 said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

https://tinyurl.com/y7ml6lbj

I think that means that Dominic Cummings was right - the Electoral Commission did say the donations via BeLeave were pukka (which he was surprised by at the time), and then had the gall to issue penalties for following their own advice.

Not sure if it is a better or worse picture for Vote Leave overall.

Certainly a bad day for the Commission...

Richard_Nabavi

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Not being a lawyer can someone tell me who has "won" this one ?
Guido reckons it is good for Grimes, Jo Maugham less so.
https://www.scribd.com/document/388589592/Good-Law-Project-v-Electoral-Commission#from_embed

It seems to me that Maugham is spinning the ruling to say that the Electoral Commission helped Vote Leave to win the referendum. The reality is the EC cocked up and as such Vote Leave did nothing wrong.

Yes, I think that is right. However, Maugham does have a point - the Electoral Commission's incorrect interpretation effectively made a nonsense of the spending limits.

Of course, the missing piece of logic here is whether all this made any difference whatsoever to the result. I should think the answer is 'not a jot'.

Pulpstar

tlg86 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

tlg86 said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

https://tinyurl.com/y7ml6lbj

I think that means that Dominic Cummings was right - the Electoral Commission did say the donations via BeLeave were pukka (which he was surprised by at the time), and then had the gall to issue penalties for following their own advice.

The question that now needs to be asked is, "did the EC knowingly give wrong advice?" (to either help leave (unlikely, in my opinion) or to trip them up down the road).

Neither, it's clearly a cock-up. THat said this looks good for Vote Leave.. The (implied) accusation from Maugham that the EC wanted Leave to win is a ermm 'stretch' I'd say.

Richard_Nabavi

oxfordsimon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

tlg86 said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

https://tinyurl.com/y7ml6lbj

I think that means that Dominic Cummings was right - the Electoral Commission did say the donations via BeLeave were pukka (which he was surprised by at the time), and then had the gall to issue penalties for following their own advice.

Does appear to be the situation.

Electoral Commission needs urgent reform - and better lawyers.

Also the law needs reform - it cannot be right that it's almost impossible for a party or campaign to know whether they are breaking it or not, so that all three main parties have fallen foul of it.

MarqueeMark

Richard_Nabavi said:

tlg86 said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

https://tinyurl.com/y7ml6lbj

I think that means that Dominic Cummings was right - the Electoral Commission did say the donations via BeLeave were pukka (which he was surprised by at the time), and then had the gall to issue penalties for following their own advice.

We expect the Electoral Commission to be the guardians of the practical working of democracy, keeping back the chancers and cheats who would otherwise try to get an advantage.

In this instance, they have the misfortune to look dodgy as all fuck themselves. Denying they gave the advice - then having that shown to be a lie - is not a good look. Then imposing a fine on the people for following that advice would shame a banana republic.

TheWhiteRabbit

MarqueeMark said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

tlg86 said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

https://tinyurl.com/y7ml6lbj

I think that means that Dominic Cummings was right - the Electoral Commission did say the donations via BeLeave were pukka (which he was surprised by at the time), and then had the gall to issue penalties for following their own advice.

We expect the Electoral Commission to be the guardians of the practical working of democracy, keeping back the chancers and cheats who would otherwise try to get an advantage.

In this instance, they have the misfortune to look dodgy as all fuck themselves. Denying they gave the advice - then having that shown to be a lie - is not a good look. Then imposing a fine on the people for following that advice would shame a banana republic.

The fine won't stand now.

MarqueeMark

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1040551690875928576

Until they covered Van Halen's "Jump"......

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Nabavi, agreed. The law needs more clarity on electoral spending.

TheWhiteRabbit

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/alexkane221b/status/1040521720166277120?s=21

what odds can I get on Paisley hold?

tlg86

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

tlg86 said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

https://tinyurl.com/y7ml6lbj

I think that means that Dominic Cummings was right - the Electoral Commission did say the donations via BeLeave were pukka (which he was surprised by at the time), and then had the gall to issue penalties for following their own advice.

The question that now needs to be asked is, "did the EC knowingly give wrong advice?" (to either help leave (unlikely, in my opinion) or to trip them up down the road).

Neither, it's clearly a cock-up. THat said this looks good for Vote Leave.. The (implied) accusation from Maugham that the EC wanted Leave to win is a ermm 'stretch' I'd say.

Heads should roll. As @MarqueeMark points out, it's the lying about giving the advice that is disgraceful.

David_Evershed

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

tlg86 said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

https://tinyurl.com/y7ml6lbj

I think that means that Dominic Cummings was right - the Electoral Commission did say the donations via BeLeave were pukka (which he was surprised by at the time), and then had the gall to issue penalties for following their own advice.

The question that now needs to be asked is, "did the EC knowingly give wrong advice?" (to either help leave (unlikely, in my opinion) or to trip them up down the road).

Neither, it's clearly a cock-up. THat said this looks good for Vote Leave.. The (implied) accusation from Maugham that the EC wanted Leave to win is a ermm 'stretch' I'd say.

Heads should roll. As @MarqueeMark points out, it's the lying about giving the advice that is disgraceful.

It's the (attempted) cover up that gets you.
Remember if you are ever going to try to cover something up you are doubling or trebling the stakes and need to be sure your cover up will succeed.

Foxy

ToryJim said:

I'm wondering if yesterday's Trump Puerto Rico tweetmare take might firm up the Hispanic votes in Florida and Texas for the Dems. If it causes GOP leaning hispanics to sit this out and motivates a few more Dem and Ind hispanics to the polls in the Dem column then it could shake things up.

Lots of Puerto Ricans in Florida, including a new influx post Maria.

I went there some years ago, it is a lovely island. Flew there in an ancient plane via Antilles Airboats:

https://www.antillesairboats.com/grumman-mallard-g73

Foxy

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1040551690875928576

End the Chaos in that font sounds rather more Death Metal.

David_Evershed

Nigelb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1040545031583617024?s=21

She is so full of herself.

Pride comes before a fall (but to be fair I do not want her to fall off the White Cliffs of Dover)

Very likely photoshopped, so I wouldn't be too concerned.

You mean it's faked.
I'm shocked I tell you, shocked!

CarlottaVance

In other news....

https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/1040486899503255552

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1040551690875928576

When the EU gets it way, with its stupid new rules on copyright, we won't be seeing any of these instant memes...

Slackbladder

So all the people which were saying the EC was uttter shit have been vindicated...

what a suprise.

TheWhiteRabbit

David_Evershed said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

tlg86 said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Looks like the Electoral Commission have made a mega error over vote leave and are in some trouble with the High Court who have found them unfit for purpose

Where are you seeing that?

https://tinyurl.com/y7ml6lbj

I think that means that Dominic Cummings was right - the Electoral Commission did say the donations via BeLeave were pukka (which he was surprised by at the time), and then had the gall to issue penalties for following their own advice.

The question that now needs to be asked is, "did the EC knowingly give wrong advice?" (to either help leave (unlikely, in my opinion) or to trip them up down the road).

Neither, it's clearly a cock-up. THat said this looks good for Vote Leave.. The (implied) accusation from Maugham that the EC wanted Leave to win is a ermm 'stretch' I'd say.

Heads should roll. As @MarqueeMark points out, it's the lying about giving the advice that is disgraceful.

It's the (attempted) cover up that gets you.
Remember if you are ever going to try to cover something up you are doubling or trebling the stakes and need to be sure your cover up will succeed.

Did the EC really deny they said anything or just that what they said constituted advice on which Vote Leave / BeLeave could rely?

FrancisUrquhart

David_Evershed said:

Nigelb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1040545031583617024?s=21

She is so full of herself.

Pride comes before a fall (but to be fair I do not want her to fall off the White Cliffs of Dover)

Very likely photoshopped, so I wouldn't be too concerned.

You mean it's faked.
I'm shocked I tell you, shocked!

You wouldn't expect her to visit any area that voted overwhelmingly to leave would you?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Urquhart, well, they passed the law in Parliament. I don't know when the EU dickishness on the internet comes into effect, though.

DecrepitJohnL

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1040551690875928576

When the EU gets it way, with its stupid new rules on copyright, we won't be seeing any of these instant memes...

What about the background music in RCS's videos?

FrancisUrquhart

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, well, they passed the law in Parliament. I don't know when the EU dickishness on the internet comes into effect, though.

I think there is more voting required first, but it is clear that the powers that be are pushing that this idiotic law needs to be put in place.

Big_G_NorthWales

FrancisUrquhart said:

David_Evershed said:

Nigelb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1040545031583617024?s=21

She is so full of herself.

Pride comes before a fall (but to be fair I do not want her to fall off the White Cliffs of Dover)

Very likely photoshopped, so I wouldn't be too concerned.

You mean it's faked.
I'm shocked I tell you, shocked!

You wouldn't expect her to visit any area that voted overwhelmingly to leave would you?

She is holding a conference today in Dover heavily promoted by Adam Boulton, who else, on Sky

TrèsDifficile

Slackbladder said:

So all the people which were saying the EC was uttter shit have been vindicated...

what a suprise.

And the people screaming that Vote Leave cheated 2 months back are rather quieter now.

Pulpstar

DecrepitJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1040551690875928576

When the EU gets it way, with its stupid new rules on copyright, we won't be seeing any of these instant memes...

What about the background music in RCS's videos?

Not affected, his stuff is straight out of Compton.

Morris_Dancer

F1: just checking the practice times. Suspect Mercedes are just laden with fuel, but very close on times with Renault. Red Bull top, Vettel a little way back, everyone else a day and a half off the pace.

GIN1138

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1040551690875928576

What "Chaos" ?

The only "chaos" I've noticed is from the political class who have been running around like headless chickens since 23rd June 2016 trying to find ever more ingenious ways to thwart the result .

Everyone else has just got on with it...

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Urquhart, be fair. People are having wrong opinions. Without the EU to censor them, this evil will only continue.

Which does remind me: how is the link tax to be collected? And will it be centrally, by Brussels?

TrèsDifficile

TrèsDifficile said:

Slackbladder said:

So all the people which were saying the EC was uttter shit have been vindicated...

what a suprise.

And the people screaming that Vote Leave cheated 2 months back are rather quieter now.

@Roger July 17 1:08PM
"'Vote Leave' cheated. Fact.......

Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.

The point is it's reasonably calculable and if it's found to have made a difference (a shocking reflection on their advertising if it hasn't) then the result should be overturned. Not re-run but overturned."
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1977489/#Comment_1977489

Fact.