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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Who are the centrists and wh
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Who are the centrists and who do they think they are?
On the latest episode of the PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss some recent polling by Opinium that looks at where Brits place themselves of the left-right political scale, who classes themselves as ‘centrist’ and what they think it means.
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Authoritarians consumed by the idea of power above all else, determined to stamp out alternative patterns of thought.
Who do they think they are?
Enlightened despots holding back the ignorant masses from reliving the 1930s.
Right, time to listen to the podcast.
Interesting Spanish opinion poll:
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
1h1 hour ago
Spain, electoPanel poll:
PSOE-S&D: 25%
PP-EPP: 25% (+2)
Cs-ALDE: 20% (-1)
UP-LEFT: 18% (-1)
ERC-G/EFA: 3%
VOX-ECR: 2%
PDeCAT-ALDE: 2%
PACMA-LEFT: 1% (-1)
PNV-ALDE: 1%
BILDU-LEFT: 1%
CC-*: 0%
BNG-G/EFA: 0%
Field work: 7/09/18 – 9/09/18"
Hope everyone has a restful night
Good night folks
All the evidence is that May’s deal is dead. Raab is on record saying fudge won’t do the trick. No progress has been made at all on Brexit discussions for six months. How he gets from this to proclaiming that his totally undefined version of soft Brexit is just around the corner is a mystery.
All the indications are pointing to no deal.
Blind Brexit here we come, nailed on.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal
Parliament does not have to vote for no deal. If it fails to approve another deal, then no deal Brexit is automatic.
EEA plus CU will start an immediate civil war in the Tory party that will end up in it being out of power for decades. There is no other deal on offer. That is why May needs to reject the NI backstop and offer a choice between CETA and nothing.
What's the big deal about him with people on here? He's a complete waste of space?
The No Dealers do not have the numbers to stop the crap dealers, and neither do the #peoplesvote. Blind Brexit nailed on.
https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/1040368744516599808
Chequers was as far as May could ever go and not provoke Tory civil war. She promised the Leavers that was it. You are kidding yourself if you think May or the Tories could survive doing something which is the exact opposite of their policy and manifesto.
May would be proposing Chequers plus alignment on services regulation
If she concedes on the customs partnership (eg to the customs union) and services regulation, she is basically at EEA + CU. At that point there is no difference. There is NO possibility of being in a/the customs union and doing your own trade deals.
What you are suggesting will start the civil war. The cabinet leavers are all on record as saying that they won't accept the kind of sell out that you are proposing.
This is the problem - people talk about 'soft Brexit' being 'fudged' but they never actually explain how that can actually happen without ending up back at the EEA/CU which May and the manifesto specifically ruled out.
The house price crash will be driven by rising unemployment, depressed economic growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates. If Chequers goes ahead, however, the economy is going to out perform current forecasts. So Every brexiteer must now sit down and be humble, it’s May’s way or its or it’s curds and whey.
On the other hand, this may be such amateur hour politics, even the most ardent remaniac feels thoroughly embarrassed about it. In this quite stunning difference, first time round project fear at least had a tenor of respectability about it compared to MKII, which merely deserves to flee the stage under a hail of plastic pint glasses and piss.
It's why a new centrist party is I think only possible as a direct carve out from Labour, that then, if the Conservatives keep going mad, attracts Tory MPs and voters as the only plausible option.
SpaceX to announce they're going to launch someone on a round-Moon mission on their BFR rocket. Identity of the putative astronaut to be made on Monday.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/09/spacex-says-its-bfr-will-fly-someone-around-the-moon-we-have-questions/
I'm deeply cynical about this. Musk has a habit of announcing spectacular news from one of his companies when another company (or he himself) gets bad press. Often these are not as 'spectacular' as it seems at first sight.
This has essentially been announced before back in early 2017, except then it was going to be two astronauts in a Dragon 2 capsule, lifted on a Falcon Heavy. This was probably achievable: the Falcon Heavy was within a year of launch, and the Dragon 2 is being funded by NASA.
Last night's announcement says the astronaut will be launched on the BFR which, as the latest artists' representation shows, is still undergoing radical changes in design. It is also probably mostly unfunded, and I doubt their rather optimistic timescales are anywhere near realistic.
Still, it'll be interesting to see what is said on Monday.
(runs for cover)
"A trade union leader has been recorded suggesting that Israel "created" the anti-Semitism row in the Labour Party.
In a recording published by the Independent, PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka suggested the country had created the story to hide what he called its own "atrocities"."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45517094
It really is a race to the bottom.
Do I guess that's not what you mean?
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1040359788197146624
Short version - it isn't a forecast, its the BoE's 'armageddon stress test' for UK bank liquidity.
Almost everyone thinks of themselves as being roughly in the centre. It's just the psychological equivalent of defining others in reference to ourselves, in the same way we make maps with home in the centre. Anyway, will give the podcast a listen a bit later.
Miss Vance, the media, getting the wrong end of the stick and failing to understand something? Impossible!
No-one knows anything and no-one knows what will happen.
It’s just a lot of confirmation bias that will be, inevitably, square-peg-round-holed into whatever deal eventually emerges so the poster can say they were right all along.
https://twitter.com/CraigMurrayOrg/status/1040361416845348865
The media really are pretty crap and sensationalist all round, really, aren’t they?
In the medium term, this might be a tactical win for Putin, but a strategic loss.
It's a shame, as Russia could be a truly great country - it certainly has the makings of one. But Putin can't be arsed to make it one.
The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension. Requires / causes the fall of the government
The UK can exit to EEA with a "CU" bolt on. If not the actual Customs Union then a 100% alignment with to effectively stay in. Rejected by both front benches, so would create absolute ruptions
The UK can not agree a deal and crash out. The "WTO will let us do x" brigade are wrong as WTO experts have pointed out. As the details as to just how fucked we are come out would cause the fall of the government.
Chequers was DOA - cakeism repeatedly rejected by the Commission. That the government are still clinging to it in the hope that the EU change their mind demonstrates how empty their locker is.
May is finished - its just a question of when. Crash Brexit would have the ERG move quickly to secure the "benefits"/before the truth about the disaster becomes self-evident. EEA breaks the manifesto and creates mass Tory resignations. Delay/rescind more so.
On the Labour side its simpler. The manifesto allows for EEA, its only Corbyn statements that ruled it out. So he misspoke, didn't say that, ITS ALL A JEWISH PLOT etc and we're back ok with EEA.
And at the height of the Tory civil war? Government business managers want to get through the MP Cull bill that costs Tories MPs seats and forces some to battle each other for the remaining chairs. I'm not losing sleep over the idea of this passing...
That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
There are so many more benefits of people actually going into work. They have their fellow workers to consult formally or informally face to face, they form social groupings which help in difficult times, they build a sense of team. Obviously we will all take the opportunities to work from home occasionally but the commute will remain a staple part of most peoples existence.
London prices may well fall if there is a reduction in the wall of foreign money that has been causing them to outperform the rest of the UK but the need for safe havens have not gone away. I found the article by Ann Applebaum linked to yesterday genuinely concerning. I also think London will continue to attract international talent going forward giving a further boost to demand. There will always be fluctuations but with the current state of sterling UK property is cheap. If we get a deal and 10% appreciation of Sterling that might change in the short term.
Commuting five days a week is a grind.
Yeah right!!!!
I'll get my coat. Have a good day everyone!
The UK rejoining an enlarged more powerful EFTA, retaining in full our EEA membership, with a customs regulatory alignment - is the only game in town. Utterly screws dreams of the UK going off negotiating its own deals but as Liam Fux has demonstrated such delusions were utterly deranged anyway.
Home working is tricky for me. At times I need to handle my customers face to face.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45513012
Some great and world-altering research there.
Having to get in the car every time that you need a pint of milk is not my idea of fun.