Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.
It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
Of course the ideal would be to work for an organisation in central London but largely remotely and live in a big detached house in the SouthWest, Wales, the Midlands or the North
The best places to live are cities, particularly those with a University, Theatre, arts cinema, Waitrose, and football team. That's all I need. Add in the cheap and good quality Victorian housing of Leicester and you have a real winner
Having to get in the car every time that you need a pint of milk is not my idea of fun.
Or you could get the milk to come to you. Most supermarkets now deliver which is a real time and effort saver especially if you've got to drag small children with you.
Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.
It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
Of course the ideal would be to work for an organisation in central London but largely remotely and live in a big detached house in the SouthWest, Wales, the Midlands or the North
The best places to live are cities, particularly those with a University, Theatre, arts cinema, Waitrose, and football team. That's all I need. Add in the cheap and good quality Victorian housing of Leicester and you have a real winner
Having to get in the car every time that you need a pint of milk is not my idea of fun.
Ii think it depends. My sister lives in rural Stafforshire, with a very big garden and lots of lovely countryside nearby. I live in a new-build development of a few thousand houses.
When I was young, I loved London. When I was older and single, I would have loved to live where she is. As a married man, I wouldn't mind living somewhere slightly more urban.
But now I have a young child, this village is superb. It has four good schools within walking distance (admittedly, my walking distance is longer than some peoples), the roads are generally safe, a Co-op is four minutes walk away, and a big supermarket fifteen. There are five childrens' playgrounds within walking distance.
When the little 'un eventually flees the nest I can see us moving again.
In other words, 'the best place to live' varies as your life changes.
They may not care, but it's already had some consequences for them, and their reaction might mean there are further consequences. Hit Putin and his chums in their pockets.
What consequences? Do you think Putin gives a fuck about a few spies lightly disguised as diplomats being expelled?
They may not care, but it's already had some consequences for them, and their reaction might mean there are further consequences. Hit Putin and his chums in their pockets.
What consequences? Do you think Putin gives a fuck about a few spies lightly disguised as diplomats being expelled?
What he cares about is money. Hurt him and his cronies in their pockets. Abramovich and his visa is an example.
The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.
The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.
That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
Plus could we really stand more months of this nonsense? As the cricket season comes to an end it threatens to be even more unbearable with only your puns for light relief.
It only happens if the May government falls. She can't ask for an extension because incompetent as she wouldn't get it and wouldn't survive asking for it. So she's gone and a new PM asks. If its an ERG loon they won't ask. If its Javid or Hunt or Corbyn they ask and probably get.
I don't think Javid or Corbyn would try to rescind or even extend A50, although they might possibly seek an extension to the transition period. Hunt might but he's also less likely to be PM.
They'll ask. Because in the circumstance of May falling there isn't a deal and that means no transition period. We're facing crash Brexit which as the papers being released and the various experts poit out means the UK is utterly fucked. Like I said, we'd beg.
Yes, Hunt might. But I think Corbyn or Javid - both of whom are extremely Eurosceptic despite lip service to the contrary - would fear the EU would ignore their pleas and present a take-it or leave-it punishment exit deal. Trouble is, they might well be right.
At which point the option remains to exit to EFTA option becomes the only game in town. We haven't yet triggered A127 of the EEA treaty, so "leave means leave" is the EU - what was on the referendum paper - and not the EEA.
The UK rejoining an enlarged more powerful EFTA, retaining in full our EEA membership, with a customs regulatory alignment - is the only game in town. Utterly screws dreams of the UK going off negotiating its own deals but as Liam Fux has demonstrated such delusions were utterly deranged anyway.
Full EEA/EFTA requires free movement though so more likely it will be Chequers Plus ie effectively following services regulations too which was Barnier' s main gripe about what was missing in Chequers as it stands now
Free movement is staying. The only non-free movement option is crash out whoops the WTO won't play ball either.
When organising the mortgage for buying our new place many banks were willing to lend us far, far more than we would have been able to pay off on a monthly basis.
The funny thing is, I don't remember that happening at the time. I guess the London centric media just missed it. I guess prices hadn't risen there as much as they had in the rest of the UK in the previous decade.
Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.
It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
Of course the ideal would be to work for an organisation in central London but largely remotely and live in a big detached house in the SouthWest, Wales, the Midlands or the North
I got in a discussion with a BBC journalist when he complained about new housing developments (in this case, one near Kettering). He bemoaned various aspects when comparing it with his own house and village. I pointed out that we couldn't all have jobs that allowed us to live and work in thatched cottages in mid-Wales ...
Indeed those with London salaries and provinces residences do well
The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.
The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.
That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
Plus could we really stand more months of this nonsense? As the cricket season comes to an end it threatens to be even more unbearable with only your puns for light relief.
It only happens if the May government falls. She can't ask for an extension because incompetent as she wouldn't get it and wouldn't survive asking for it. So she's gone and a new PM asks. If its an ERG loon they won't ask. If its Javid or Hunt or Corbyn they ask and probably get.
I don't think Javid or Corbyn would try to rescind or even extend A50, although they might possibly seek an extension to the transition period. Hunt might but he's also less likely to be PM.
They'll ask. Because in the circumstance of May falling there isn't a deal and that means no transition period. We're facing crash Brexit which as the papers being released and the various experts poit out means the UK is utterly fucked. Like I said, we'd beg.
Yes, Hunt might. But I think Corbyn or Javid - both of whom are extremely Eurosceptic despite lip service to the contrary - would fear the EU would ignore their pleas and present a take-it or leave-it punishment exit deal. Trouble is, they might well be right.
At which point the option remains to exit to EFTA option becomes the only game in town. We haven't yet triggered A127 of the EEA treaty, so "leave means leave" is the EU - what ux has demonstrated such delusions were utterly deranged anyway.
Full EEA/EFTA requires free movement though so more likely it will be Chequers Plus ie effectively following services regulations too which was Barnier' s main gripe about what was missing in Chequers as it stands now
What was Boris Johnson’s objection to Chequers and what do you think his view of Chequers Plus along those lines would be? More importantly what do you think he’ll do about it?
He will oppose it as he has Chequers, he has now tied his flag irretrievably to the ERG mast
Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.
It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
Of course the ideal would be to work for an organisation in central London but largely remotely and live in a big detached house in the SouthWest, Wales, the Midlands or the North
The best places to live are cities, particularly those with a University, Theatre, arts cinema, Waitrose, and football team. That's all I need. Add in the cheap and good quality Victorian housing of Leicester and you have a real winner
Having to get in the car every time that you need a pint of milk is not my idea of fun.
I enjoyed living in Leamington as an undergraduate
Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.
It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
Worth saying that Fridays are generally a lot quieter on the trains. It seems to me that only the plebs have to work Fridays in London.
The UK can rescind A50 or at the very least beg an extension.
The important caveat is with the unanimous consent of the 27 other EU states.
That probably would be forthcoming but it's not guaranteed and couldn't be unilateral.
Plus could we really stand more months of this nonsense? As the cricket season comes to an end it threatens to be even more unbearable with only your puns for light relief.
It only happens if the May government probably get.
I don't think Javid or Corbyn would try to rescind or even extend A50, although they might possibly seek an extension to the transition period. Hunt might but he's also less likely to be PM.
They'll ask. Because in the circumstance of May falling there isn't a deal and that meansaid, we'd beg.
Yes, Hunt might. But I think Corbyn or Javid - both of whom are extremely Eurosceptic despite lip service to the contrary - would fear the EU would ignore their pleas and present a take-it or leave-it punishment exit deal. Trouble is, they might well be right.
At which point the option remains to exit to EFTA option becomes the only game in town. We haven't yet triggered A127 of the EEA treaty, so "leave means leave" is the EU - what was on the referendum paper - and not the EEA.
The UK rejoining an enlarged more powerful EFTA, retaining in full our EEA membership, with a customs regulatory alignment - is the only game in town. Utterly screws dreams of the UK going off negotiating its own deals but as Liam Fux has demonstrated such delusions were utterly deranged anyway.
Full EEA/EFTA requires free movement though so more likely it will be Chequers Plus ie effectively following services regulations too which was Barnier' s main gripe about what was missing in Chequers as it stands now
Free movement is staying. The only non-free movement option is crash out whoops the WTO won't play ball either.
Technically it isn't, even if May is not proposing a points system as Vote Leave wanted she is proposing a work permit and study place on arrival requirement rather than after 3 months and Barnier has not objected, it is similar to the transition controls we could have had in 2004 .
Of course a Canada deal allows a points system instead of free movement but that still requires a border in the Irish Sea for the EU unacceptable to the DUP
Mr. Meeks, just on Peston/Raab: not especially taken with Raab but I thought Peston's 'interview' with him was pathetic.
He asked Raab to name any foreign leaders or backbenchers who backed Chequers. Raab then named three senior foreign politicians, including Merkel. Peston smirked and then laughed in Raab's face.
Incisive. Intelligent. Informative. The interview had none of those qualities. Between that and the "Will you keep your allotment?" hard-hitting question aimed at Corbyn during the last election, I wonder what Peston adds for the audience.
There are serious questions around Chequers. It's criticised from both wings of the Conservative Party (pro- and anti-EU), and there seems to be some EU/Conservative agreement on preferring a Canada-style deal. An obvious question is why the Government doesn't change tack that way.
But no. Ask a question, get it answered, then laugh.
The political class sometimes gets knocked (and sometimes it's justified) but the media hardly cover themselves in glory either.
When organising the mortgage for buying our new place many banks were willing to lend us far, far more than we would have been able to pay off on a monthly basis.
I feel we are very close to another top.
I remember the negative equity of the early nineties. Prices came down nicely, but the problem was that mortgages dried up at decent rates, and deposits were too big even for me as a junior doctor.
Lower asking prices are just one aspect of affordability.
The daily mail have gone for the ERG today over how they souce their money. They really have changed
Catching up on the thread I notice a certain Australian poster has accused me of being on drugs. It is sad that in the process of losing your case you lean towards desperation. I can in all honesty say I have never taken any 'drugs' in my life other than those prescribed by my doctor but there we are
See Mark Serwotka in real trouble over his Israel remarks
And Archbishop Welby panned over his Amazon attack while the Church has millions invested with Amazon
Full EEA/EFTA requires free movement though so more likely it will be Chequers Plus ie effectively following services regulations too which was Barnier' s main gripe about what was missing in Chequers as it stands now
You are consistently getting this wrong. Barniers problem is with the customs partnership, not the services carve out. If the customs partnership is rejected, the UK will have to stay in the CU which means no independent trade policy.
Just repeating over and over that giving in on services will solve the issue is just demonstrating that you don't understand what is going on. Or that you can't face it, because all the Cabinet leavers said that independent trade policy was an absolute red line for them.
Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.
It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
It will be interesting to see if that really does become the case. In your business law firms are beginning to appreciate how low margin work can be offshored (cough, Birmingham, Belfast) but face time remains important in relationship building. In the area that I used to work in, there was no real need for us to be in London other than inertia.
Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.
It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
It will be interesting to see if that really does become the case. In your business law firms are beginning to appreciate how low margin work can be offshored (cough, Birmingham, Belfast) but face time remains important in relationship building. In the area that I used to work in, there was no real need for us to be in London other than inertia.
Careful - Alastair's firm has its roots in Birmingham!
Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.
It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
It will be interesting to see if that really does become the case. In your business law firms are beginning to appreciate how low margin work can be offshored (cough, Birmingham, Belfast) but face time remains important in relationship building. In the area that I used to work in, there was no real need for us to be in London other than inertia.
Careful - Alastair's firm has its roots in Birmingham!
One global firm has opened it low cost back office in Birmingham. Which is a comment both on skilled workforce availability and the view of Birmingham.
Hmmm. I put my flat on the market on Tuesday night and by Thursday there’s talk of 35% property price falls. Suboptimal.
It's ok Alastair, no one believes it. And just think what sort of gains you have got built in on the back of QE.
As it happens, I am expecting property prices in London to fall quite steeply in the coming years and relative to the rest of the country, though not particularly because of Brexit (though that certainly won’t help). Remote working is rising very sharply now - I’m currently sat on a commuter train with plenty of spare seats. The need to live close to your nominal office has probably peaked for senior staff and is cascading down the pecking order. Why would you pay premium prices for convenience that is no longer all that convenient?
It will be interesting to see if that really does become the case. In your business law firms are beginning to appreciate how low margin work can be offshored (cough, Birmingham, Belfast) but face time remains important in relationship building. In the area that I used to work in, there was no real need for us to be in London other than inertia.
Careful - Alastair's firm has its roots in Birmingham!
One global firm has opened it low cost back office in Birmingham. Which is a comment both on skilled workforce availability and the view of Birmingham.
Any American tech firm can open their offices in the Scotland / the North / Northern Ireland and access suitably skilled workers at 30-50% of the equivalent CA or WA cost...
I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job.
(runs for cover)
OK:
1. He waffles a lot.
2. He fidgets a lot.
3. He slouches in his chair and throws his arm over the back of the chair, thus looking somewhat disrespectful to the audience.
4. Often looks away from the camera when speaking making himself look like he's got something to hide.
5. Just generally doesn't look comfortable in a public arena.
EDIT: I was perhaps a bit harsh calling him "a waste of space" But he's certainly not leadership material.
Guardian reporting that the Church of England use zero hours contracts and are advertising them
So Welby attacks Amazon and zero hour contracts while investing and using both. I wonder if Welby uses Amazon himself
Absolute hypocrisy
Do you really think the CoE treats employees/contracters anywhere near as badly as Amazon?
I thought that their position was that ZHCs were an absolute manifestation of evil and employers using them should be condemned to Dante's seventh circle. No shades of grey.
Guardian reporting that the Church of England use zero hours contracts and are advertising them
So Welby attacks Amazon and zero hour contracts while investing and using both. I wonder if Welby uses Amazon himself
Absolute hypocrisy
Do you really think the CoE treats employees/contracters anywhere near as badly as Amazon?
I doubt Church House in Westminster has free Ibuprofen dispensers on the wall like an Amazon warehouse. Welby, along with all other god botherers, can fuck the fuck off though.
On property prices, Brexit could well combine with a major financial crisis triggered by Turkey and other emerging economies by spring next year. Turkey interest rate is 24%
Let's hope Carney's stress testing has been watertight.
I see the get-Rory crowd are out in force this morning. Since they can't actually say any real reason why they think he'd be bad (aside from the usual insults), then I guess they actually worried he might do a good job.
(runs for cover)
OK:
1. He waffles a lot.
2. He fidgets a lot.
3. He slouches in his chair and throws his arm over the back of the chair, thus looking somewhat disrespectful to the audience.
4. Often looks away from the camera when speaking making himself look like he's got something to hide.
5. Just generally doesn't look comfortable in a public arena.
EDIT: I was perhaps a bit harsh calling him "a waste of space" But he's certainly not leadership material.
6. Committed himself to resign next year from current role. I cannot see that working out for him.
Mr. Meeks, just on Peston/Raab: not especially taken with Raab but I thought Peston's 'interview' with him was pathetic.
He asked Raab to name any foreign leaders or backbenchers who backed Chequers. Raab then named three senior foreign politicians, including Merkel. Peston smirked and then laughed in Raab's face.
Incisive. Intelligent. Informative. The interview had none of those qualities. Between that and the "Will you keep your allotment?" hard-hitting question aimed at Corbyn during the last election, I wonder what Peston adds for the audience.
There are serious questions around Chequers. It's criticised from both wings of the Conservative Party (pro- and anti-EU), and there seems to be some EU/Conservative agreement on preferring a Canada-style deal. An obvious question is why the Government doesn't change tack that way.
But no. Ask a question, get it answered, then laugh.
The political class sometimes gets knocked (and sometimes it's justified) but the media hardly cover themselves in glory either.
The important question is does Merkel back Chequers? If not then the answer was quite amusing.
Comments
When I was young, I loved London. When I was older and single, I would have loved to live where she is. As a married man, I wouldn't mind living somewhere slightly more urban.
But now I have a young child, this village is superb. It has four good schools within walking distance (admittedly, my walking distance is longer than some peoples), the roads are generally safe, a Co-op is four minutes walk away, and a big supermarket fifteen. There are five childrens' playgrounds within walking distance.
When the little 'un eventually flees the nest I can see us moving again.
In other words, 'the best place to live' varies as your life changes.
https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1040490996008710145
I feel we are very close to another top.
Of course a Canada deal allows a points system instead of free movement but that still requires a border in the Irish Sea for the EU unacceptable to the DUP
He asked Raab to name any foreign leaders or backbenchers who backed Chequers. Raab then named three senior foreign politicians, including Merkel. Peston smirked and then laughed in Raab's face.
Incisive. Intelligent. Informative. The interview had none of those qualities. Between that and the "Will you keep your allotment?" hard-hitting question aimed at Corbyn during the last election, I wonder what Peston adds for the audience.
There are serious questions around Chequers. It's criticised from both wings of the Conservative Party (pro- and anti-EU), and there seems to be some EU/Conservative agreement on preferring a Canada-style deal. An obvious question is why the Government doesn't change tack that way.
But no. Ask a question, get it answered, then laugh.
The political class sometimes gets knocked (and sometimes it's justified) but the media hardly cover themselves in glory either.
Lower asking prices are just one aspect of affordability.
Catching up on the thread I notice a certain Australian poster has accused me of being on drugs. It is sad that in the process of losing your case you lean towards desperation. I can in all honesty say I have never taken any 'drugs' in my life other than those prescribed by my doctor but there we are
See Mark Serwotka in real trouble over his Israel remarks
And Archbishop Welby panned over his Amazon attack while the Church has millions invested with Amazon
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1040514498564694017
Just repeating over and over that giving in on services will solve the issue is just demonstrating that you don't understand what is going on. Or that you can't face it, because all the Cabinet leavers said that independent trade policy was an absolute red line for them.
https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2018/09/13/cuomo-wins-new-york-democratic-primary-for-governor-8856649
Could be the largest field in years, which might throw up some interesting betting opportunities over the next couple of years.
So Welby attacks Amazon and zero hour contracts while investing and using both. I wonder if Welby uses Amazon himself
Absolute hypocrisy
1. He waffles a lot.
2. He fidgets a lot.
3. He slouches in his chair and throws his arm over the back of the chair, thus looking somewhat disrespectful to the audience.
4. Often looks away from the camera when speaking making himself look like he's got something to hide.
5. Just generally doesn't look comfortable in a public arena.
EDIT: I was perhaps a bit harsh calling him "a waste of space"
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1040306125676142594?s=19
America really is a strange place!
Let's hope Carney's stress testing has been watertight.
NEW THREAD
Edited extra bit: ah, got it now.