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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some pretty grim polling in London for the Tories, Labour, and

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  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Cyclefree said:

    "What didn't kill me made me stronger"....
    He has a point though doesn't he? What Momentum are doing to the likes of Field, Hoey and Shuker is only what the PLP did to Corbyn really
    The difference being that Momentum represent only themselves whereas the MPs were elected by voters, many of whom will not be Labour Party members. So maybe, just maybe, those MPs have a better sense of what voters want than party members. Possibly.
    And when exactly over the last few years have those MPs demonstrated this supposed grasp of "what voters want".

    Which election strategy did best: 2015 which was broadly in line with the PLP's political instincts, or 2017 which was broadly in line with Momentum's political instincts?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    On topic, so does Labour have to back a second referendum to win back those lost London voters?

    Not for me to give tactical advice to Labour, especially Corbyn's Labour, but winning back that 7% to get back up to 55% is probably not the best use of resources.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2018

    Former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who quit in July over Chequers, said the Conservatives would face a catastrophic split if May relied on Labour votes to push her proposals through parliament.

    Good point, Steve.

    And if the ERG rely on Labour votes to scupper her proposals....?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/10/johnson-trying-to-stop-may-chequers-brexit-plan

    With every day that passes, the ERG are increasingly revealing themselves to be a bunch of clueless f*ckers.
    Clueless is kind - they need putting back in their box and I believe TM will do just that or, irony of all ironies, they may see a second referendum down their unrealistic hopes for once and for all

    For me it is TM deal and if not, a second referendum (peoples vote is a dishonest title)
    I am not sure People's Vote is a dishonest title but it is a naff and patronising one.
    I am approximately 75% against a second referendum, but I'd guess atleast 5% of that is due to the teeth-grindingly cringeworthy "People's Vote" moniker.

    I think the Independent's branding of a second referendum as "the Final Say" is a bit less disingenuous.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    DavidL said:

    On topic, so does Labour have to back a second referendum to win back those lost London voters?

    Not for me to give tactical advice to Labour, especially Corbyn's Labour, but winning back that 7% to get back up to 55% is probably not the best use of resources.
    The subsamples (!) do show a swing to Remain particularly in the Midlands and NE.
  • Hague: Britain is facing its worst constitutional crisis for 200 years

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/10/britain-facing-worst-constitutional-crisis-200-years-will/
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say, completely off topic, families! Or rather children! As soon as you think they’re sort of settled and ok something kicks you/them in the arse.

    Do you ever stop worrying about your children? And how can you help them when they’re young adults, have to make their own decisions but also need/ask for guidance?

    It’s like bloody snakes and ladders!

    Oh dear. I hope it’s nothing too serious.
    A temporary setback I hope. Not, fingers crossed, as bad as what has happened in the past. But the reaction to it will be important to avoid that. And a child who needs now (and probably always will) additional help beyond what is normal.

    The passage to adulthood is hard and I have to remind myself that it was hard for me and my friends too. (And no I’m not talking about money.)

    Sometimes I look at other families who all seem so settled and wonder what I’m doing wrong or not doing at all.

    Oh well, tomorrow is another day, as someone once said.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Danny565 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    "What didn't kill me made me stronger"....
    He has a point though doesn't he? What Momentum are doing to the likes of Field, Hoey and Shuker is only what the PLP did to Corbyn really
    The difference being that Momentum represent only themselves whereas the MPs were elected by voters, many of whom will not be Labour Party members. So maybe, just maybe, those MPs have a better sense of what voters want than party members. Possibly.
    And when exactly over the last few years have those MPs demonstrated this supposed grasp of "what voters want".

    Which election strategy did best: 2015 which was broadly in line with the PLP's political instincts, or 2017 which was broadly in line with Momentum's political instincts?
    Tony Blair, despised by Momentum, won three elections. Miliband and Corbyn both lost the elections they have fought.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    It would be quite tricky to have a political career. About 40% of the Cabinet would lose their seats at every election, including possibly the PM.

    On the plus side, I might have won.
    That is another advantage.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Cyclefree said:

    Danny565 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    "What didn't kill me made me stronger"....
    He has a point though doesn't he? What Momentum are doing to the likes of Field, Hoey and Shuker is only what the PLP did to Corbyn really
    The difference being that Momentum represent only themselves whereas the MPs were elected by voters, many of whom will not be Labour Party members. So maybe, just maybe, those MPs have a better sense of what voters want than party members. Possibly.
    And when exactly over the last few years have those MPs demonstrated this supposed grasp of "what voters want".

    Which election strategy did best: 2015 which was broadly in line with the PLP's political instincts, or 2017 which was broadly in line with Momentum's political instincts?
    Tony Blair, despised by Momentum, won three elections. Miliband and Corbyn both lost the elections they have fought.
    Yes, Blair won elections, over a decade ago. Things have changed just a bit since then. In more recent times, the ;abour "moderates" flunked it everytime they were put in charge of a political strategy.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    tyson said:

    murali_s said:

    On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.

    London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.

    There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
    Jesus! You obviously don't live and work in London. The Tories are in free-fall here and have been for a while. The Tories have nothing to offer the educated, sophisticated, young and ethnically diverse population of London.

    Expect the Tories to be sub 20% at the next GE my deluded right-wing friend!
    Umm. I work in London. I’m there every day and lots of my friends are Londoners.

    Muppet.
    I love the retaliation muppet...rather endearing..
    It is a term that has become distressingly detached from it's RN origin: Most Useless Prick Pusser Ever Trained.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say, completely off topic, families! Or rather children! As soon as you think they’re sort of settled and ok something kicks you/them in the arse.

    Do you ever stop worrying about your children? And how can you help them when they’re young adults, have to make their own decisions but also need/ask for guidance?

    It’s like bloody snakes and ladders!

    Oh dear. I hope it’s nothing too serious.
    A temporary setback I hope. Not, fingers crossed, as bad as what has happened in the past. But the reaction to it will be important to avoid that. And a child who needs now (and probably always will) additional help beyond what is normal.

    The passage to adulthood is hard and I have to remind myself that it was hard for me and my friends too. (And no I’m not talking about money.)

    Sometimes I look at other families who all seem so settled and wonder what I’m doing wrong or not doing at all.

    Oh well, tomorrow is another day, as someone once said.

    I wasn't meaning to be flippant about money, but Fox Jr is rather lacking in social confidence, so being financially reliant on me is a sign that he has not fully got over that. I don't mind the money, it is the underlying problem that bothers me.

    From the outside other families can look untroubled, but we do not have windows into people's souls, so we never do see the extent of their troubles.
  • The ERG have decided that big numbers are the way to go: "Jacob Rees-Mogg: No-deal Brexit will boost UK economy by £1.1 trillion over 15 years"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/10/jacob-rees-mogg-no-deal-brexit-will-boost-uk-economy-11-trillion/
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Danny565 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Danny565 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    "What didn't kill me made me stronger"....
    He has a point though doesn't he? What Momentum are doing to the likes of Field, Hoey and Shuker is only what the PLP did to Corbyn really
    The difference being that Momentum represent only themselves whereas the MPs were elected by voters, many of whom will not be Labour Party members. So maybe, just maybe, those MPs have a better sense of what voters want than party members. Possibly.
    And when exactly over the last few years have those MPs demonstrated this supposed grasp of "what voters want".

    Which election strategy did best: 2015 which was broadly in line with the PLP's political instincts, or 2017 which was broadly in line with Momentum's political instincts?
    Tony Blair, despised by Momentum, won three elections. Miliband and Corbyn both lost the elections they have fought.
    Yes, Blair won elections, over a decade ago. Things have changed just a bit since then. In more recent times, the ;abour "moderates" flunked it everytime they were put in charge of a political strategy.
    We have seen all across Europe the moderate-left losing ground. The temper of the times has changed.

    It is not plausible that a moderate, Miliband or Chukka-led Labour party will win in 2022.

    Blair of course bears a lot of the responsibility for the moderate-left losing ground in the UK.
  • And here's the ERG plan for Northern Ireland - https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7224083/pm-chequers-brexit-ireland-tax/

    Flying squads of tax inspectors would roam Northern Ireland after Brexit under an alternative plan drawn up by senior Tories to “destroy Chequers”, The Sun can reveal.

    Arch-Eurosceptics believe a Hard Border with the EU could be avoided by “Inland Clearance” that would see goods made for export subject to spot checks from officials in factories and at arrival destinations.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited September 2018
    Danny565 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Danny565 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    "What didn't kill me made me stronger"....
    He has a point though doesn't he? What Momentum are doing to the likes of Field, Hoey and Shuker is only what the PLP did to Corbyn really
    The difference being that Momentum represent only themselves whereas the MPs were elected by voters, many of whom will not be Labour Party members. So maybe, just maybe, those MPs have a better sense of what voters want than party members. Possibly.
    And when exactly over the last few years have those MPs demonstrated this supposed grasp of "what voters want".

    Which election strategy did best: 2015 which was broadly in line with the PLP's political instincts, or 2017 which was broadly in line with Momentum's political instincts?
    Tony Blair, despised by Momentum, won three elections. Miliband and Corbyn both lost the elections they have fought.
    Yes, Blair won elections, over a decade ago. Things have changed just a bit since then. In more recent times, the ;abour "moderates" flunked it everytime they were put in charge of a political strategy.
    Agreed. The moderates do not seem to know what they are for.

    McDonnell said the other day that the next Labour manifesto would be much more radical and left-wing than the 2017 one. I suspect that will be the manifesto which will really be in tune with Momentum’s instincts. Let’s see how in tune it will be with the wider electorate’s instincts.

    MPs are answerable to the electorate and have a responsibility to all their constituents not simply to some of their party members. The focus on the latter risks ignoring a much larger group of voters and this is bad for democracy. Momentum types are doing what they accuse others of doing, taking the electorate - and Labour voters - for granted.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say, completely off topic, families! Or rather children! As soon as you think they’re sort of settled and ok something kicks you/them in the arse.

    Do you ever stop worrying about your children? And how can you help them when they’re young adults, have to make their own decisions but also need/ask for guidance?

    It’s like bloody snakes and ladders!

    Oh dear. I hope it’s nothing too serious.
    A temporary setback I hope. Not, fingers crossed, as bad as what has happened in the past. But the reaction to it will be important to avoid that. And a child who needs now (and probably always will) additional help beyond what is normal.

    The passage to adulthood is hard and I have to remind myself that it was hard for me and my friends too. (And no I’m not talking about money.)

    Sometimes I look at other families who all seem so settled and wonder what I’m doing wrong or not doing at all.

    Oh well, tomorrow is another day, as someone once said.

    All the best, Cyclefree.
    Few families in my experience are trouble free; mine certainly isn’t.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say, completely off topic, families! Or rather children! As soon as you think they’re sort of settled and ok something kicks you/them in the arse.

    Do you ever stop worrying about your children? And how can you help them when they’re young adults, have to make their own decisions but also need/ask for guidance?

    It’s like bloody snakes and ladders!

    Oh dear. I hope it’s nothing too serious.
    A temporary setback I hope. Not, fingers crossed, as bad as what has happened in the past. But the reaction to it will be important to avoid that. And a child who needs now (and probably always will) additional help beyond what is normal.

    The passage to adulthood is hard and I have to remind myself that it was hard for me and my friends too. (And no I’m not talking about money.)

    Sometimes I look at other families who all seem so settled and wonder what I’m doing wrong or not doing at all.

    Oh well, tomorrow is another day, as someone once said.

    All the best, Cyclefree.
    Few families in my experience are trouble free; mine certainly isn’t.
    Thank you.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Good luck, Cyclefree. I don't know if it's relevant, but I think society generally tends to have over-fixed ideas of what is appropriate at different ages, and people don't always mature in ma straight line, but rather have good periods and periods of dependency. With love all round it will hopefully sort itself out over time.

    Meanwhile, in Sweden one district made a mistake in reporting, so a centre-right party has lost a seat to the Sweden Democrats, widening the gap from the centre-left to 2. In other news, the Centre-Right Liberals have said flatly that if any of the alliance cooperates with the Sereden Democrats the Alliance will collapse; on the other hand, the Greens have said they're open to cooperation with the centre-right if necessary. So a coalition across the divide is starting to look more likely, probably still with a minority - perhaps Moderates plus Christian Democrats plus Greens.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    Foxy said:

    Kurt Vonnegut wrote a story set in the future, with elected officials chosen at random, and not permitted to refuse the role. It guaranteed all parts of society represented.

    This may be the most obscure point ever on PB, but are you sure it wasn't Arthur C Clarke in "Songs of Distant Earth" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Songs_of_Distant_Earth
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018
    "A priceless 2,000-year-old Roman garden water fountain found in a dig was thrown out by a council because it was too big to store. The relic, found in Colchester in 1998, revealed the important status that gardens held in Britain’s oldest recorded town."
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/thumbsdown-given-to-2-000yearold-fountain-cdrjzpfx2
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Danny565 said:

    Former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who quit in July over Chequers, said the Conservatives would face a catastrophic split if May relied on Labour votes to push her proposals through parliament.

    Good point, Steve.

    And if the ERG rely on Labour votes to scupper her proposals....?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/10/johnson-trying-to-stop-may-chequers-brexit-plan

    With every day that passes, the ERG are increasingly revealing themselves to be a bunch of clueless f*ckers.
    Clueless is kind - they need putting back in their box and I believe TM will do just that or, irony of all ironies, they may see a second referendum down their unrealistic hopes for once and for all

    For me it is TM deal and if not, a second referendum (peoples vote is a dishonest title)
    I am not sure People's Vote is a dishonest title but it is a naff and patronising one.
    I am approximately 75% against a second referendum, but I'd guess atleast 5% of that is due to the teeth-grindingly cringeworthy "People's Vote" moniker.

    I think the Independent's branding of a second referendum as "the Final Say" is a bit less disingenuous.
    A more inappropriate moniker than "Final Say" is hard to imagine. If Leave won again, the Remainers are going to stop trying to get us back in the Euro-fold? If Remain won, the Leavers are going to stop crying "Cheating bastards!" and demanding a best of three? And after everything even tangentially possible to blame on Brussels gets blamed on Brussels, after the EU make us grovel and eat a diet of shit sandwiches to show we are good Europeans now....

    Why would Brussels even want us back, given that there would be still be continual agitating for an anti-establishment fuck-the-system whatever-it-takes-Brexit? We would be the next election away from an Italian-style political movement for upheaval. They can't plan, not with us still being semi-detached members. They might as well make the break now and cut their losses.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    edited September 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say, completely off topic, families! Or rather children! As soon as you think they’re sort of settled and ok something kicks you/them in the arse.

    Do you ever stop worrying about your children? And how can you help them when they’re young adults, have to make their own decisions but also need/ask for guidance?

    It’s like bloody snakes and ladders!

    Oh dear. I hope it’s nothing too serious.
    A temporary setback I hope. Not, fingers crossed, as bad as what has happened in the past. But the reaction to it will be important to avoid that. And a child who needs now (and probably always will) additional help beyond what is normal.

    The passage to adulthood is hard and I have to remind myself that it was hard for me and my friends too. (And no I’m not talking about money.)

    Sometimes I look at other families who all seem so settled and wonder what I’m doing wrong or not doing at all.

    Oh well, tomorrow is another day, as someone once said.

    All the best, Cyclefree.
    Few families in my experience are trouble free; mine certainly isn’t.
    Thank you.
    "Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Karenina_principle

    To be honest @Cyclefree, if the little bastards arent dead, imprisoned nor crims, and still phone occasionally, you're ahead of the game. Don't forget that David Cameron had a child that died in youth, Julie Burchill had a son who died badly, Bob Monkhouse had a heroin addict son, Ronnie Barker had a son into child pornography, and Claudia Winkleman (pbuh) has a daughter who nearly burnt to death.

    As President Bartlet once said to his daughter "The only thing you ever had to do to make me happy was come home at the end of the day."
  • And here's the ERG plan for Northern Ireland - https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7224083/pm-chequers-brexit-ireland-tax/

    Flying squads of tax inspectors would roam Northern Ireland after Brexit under an alternative plan drawn up by senior Tories to “destroy Chequers”, The Sun can reveal.

    Arch-Eurosceptics believe a Hard Border with the EU could be avoided by “Inland Clearance” that would see goods made for export subject to spot checks from officials in factories and at arrival destinations.

    Looks like a perfectly sensible plan. Customs, as well as VAT and income tax, already works on self-assessment backed by audit and penalties. There is no reason why exporters cannot be required to self declare. As previously noted, the vast majority by value of exports between NI and ROI in driven by a very small number of companies. If NI retained the same regulatory framework as the UK, there would be no objection to inspections at the Irish Sea to monitor compliance (I think there are already). Obviously there will need to be an exemption for smaller players which of course the EU should have no problem agreeing given their obvious genuine concern for the peace process...

    So, now we can dispense with the NI scare campaign we can all focus on CETA and a sensible outcome to Brexit.
  • The ERG have decided that big numbers are the way to go: "Jacob Rees-Mogg: No-deal Brexit will boost UK economy by £1.1 trillion over 15 years"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/10/jacob-rees-mogg-no-deal-brexit-will-boost-uk-economy-11-trillion/

    As opposed to the Treasury (and others) using just as big numbers in the opposite direction? All this shows is that economic forecasts are utterly worthless.
  • Former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who quit in July over Chequers, said the Conservatives would face a catastrophic split if May relied on Labour votes to push her proposals through parliament.

    Good point, Steve.

    And if the ERG rely on Labour votes to scupper her proposals....?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/10/johnson-trying-to-stop-may-chequers-brexit-plan

    With every day that passes, the ERG are increasingly revealing themselves to be a bunch of clueless f*ckers.
    Clueless is kind - they need putting back in their box and I believe TM will do just that or, irony of all ironies, they may see a second referendum down their unrealistic hopes for once and for all

    For me it is TM deal and if not, a second referendum (peoples vote is a dishonest title)
    Dishonest. You mean, like promising people a 'once in a lifetime' referendum, promising to implement the result and then when you lose saying you want to have another go. Got it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    edited September 2018

    And here's the ERG plan for Northern Ireland - https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7224083/pm-chequers-brexit-ireland-tax/

    Flying squads of tax inspectors would roam Northern Ireland after Brexit under an alternative plan drawn up by senior Tories to “destroy Chequers”, The Sun can reveal.

    Arch-Eurosceptics believe a Hard Border with the EU could be avoided by “Inland Clearance” that would see goods made for export subject to spot checks from officials in factories and at arrival destinations.

    Looks like a perfectly sensible plan. Customs, as well as VAT and income tax, already works on self-assessment backed by audit and penalties. There is no reason why exporters cannot be required to self declare. As previously noted, the vast majority by value of exports between NI and ROI in driven by a very small number of companies. If NI retained the same regulatory framework as the UK, there would be no objection to inspections at the Irish Sea to monitor compliance (I think there are already). Obviously there will need to be an exemption for smaller players which of course the EU should have no problem agreeing given their obvious genuine concern for the peace process...

    So, now we can dispense with the NI scare campaign we can all focus on CETA and a sensible outcome to Brexit.
    "We"?

    Any deal has to be agreed between the UK Government and the EU. Is anybody in the UK Government (which, inter alia, does not include Parliament) offering CETA to the EU?
  • viewcode said:

    And here's the ERG plan for Northern Ireland - https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7224083/pm-chequers-brexit-ireland-tax/

    Flying squads of tax inspectors would roam Northern Ireland after Brexit under an alternative plan drawn up by senior Tories to “destroy Chequers”, The Sun can reveal.

    Arch-Eurosceptics believe a Hard Border with the EU could be avoided by “Inland Clearance” that would see goods made for export subject to spot checks from officials in factories and at arrival destinations.

    Looks like a perfectly sensible plan. Customs, as well as VAT and income tax, already works on self-assessment backed by audit and penalties. There is no reason why exporters cannot be required to self declare. As previously noted, the vast majority by value of exports between NI and ROI in driven by a very small number of companies. If NI retained the same regulatory framework as the UK, there would be no objection to inspections at the Irish Sea to monitor compliance (I think there are already). Obviously there will need to be an exemption for smaller players which of course the EU should have no problem agreeing given their obvious genuine concern for the peace process...

    So, now we can dispense with the NI scare campaign we can all focus on CETA and a sensible outcome to Brexit.
    "We"?

    Any deal has to be agreed between the UK Government and the EU. Is anybody in the UK Government (which, inter alia, does not include Parliament) offering CETA to the EU?
    No, and that is the problem. The UK Government, desperate to placate the losers of the referendum, refuse to discuss the only deal that has any chance of being adopted and passing Parliament.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141

    viewcode said:

    And here's the ERG plan for Northern Ireland - https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7224083/pm-chequers-brexit-ireland-tax/

    Flying squads of tax inspectors would roam Northern Ireland after Brexit under an alternative plan drawn up by senior Tories to “destroy Chequers”, The Sun can reveal.

    Arch-Eurosceptics believe a Hard Border with the EU could be avoided by “Inland Clearance” that would see goods made for export subject to spot checks from officials in factories and at arrival destinations.

    Looks like a perfectly sensible plan. Customs, as well as VAT and income tax, already works on self-assessment backed by audit and penalties. There is no reason why exporters cannot be required to self declare. As previously noted, the vast majority by value of exports between NI and ROI in driven by a very small number of companies. If NI retained the same regulatory framework as the UK, there would be no objection to inspections at the Irish Sea to monitor compliance (I think there are already). Obviously there will need to be an exemption for smaller players which of course the EU should have no problem agreeing given their obvious genuine concern for the peace process...

    So, now we can dispense with the NI scare campaign we can all focus on CETA and a sensible outcome to Brexit.
    "We"?

    Any deal has to be agreed between the UK Government and the EU. Is anybody in the UK Government (which, inter alia, does not include Parliament) offering CETA to the EU?
    No, and that is the problem. The UK Government, desperate to placate the losers of the referendum, refuse to discuss the only deal that has any chance of being adopted and passing Parliament.
    Interesting problem. There seems to be no option that satisfies the UK Government, the EU, and the UK Parliament. Ouch... :(
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited September 2018


    Why would Brussels even want us back, given that there would be still be continual agitating for an anti-establishment fuck-the-system whatever-it-takes-Brexit? We would be the next election away from an Italian-style political movement for upheaval. They can't plan, not with us still being semi-detached members. They might as well make the break now and cut their losses.

    The rest of the EU wants the UK to be in the EU because it makes things easier for people trying to work, study, travel, that kind of thing, and companies trying to make stuff. Brexit interferes with all of that to nobody's benefit, so obviously they'd rather it was cancelled. A stupid thing that might still happen at some unspecified date in the future is obviously better than a stupid thing that's definitely going to happen now.

    This obvious fact also fits with everything everybody who matters has been saying on this; All the messages from the Commission and other member states have been that they'd rather Britain stayed, and there's basically nobody saying, "Thank God they're leaving, whatever you do don't let them back in".
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited September 2018
    BIgger than May 1940 or Irish home rule or the Liberal government's 1910 battle with the Lords?

    A slight exaggeration?!
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    On topic, so does Labour have to back a second referendum to win back those lost London voters?

    Who would they win back - Worthless Labour votes from the Lib Dems in south west London seats in boroughs like Kingston and Richmond where they stand no chance anyway?

    40 per cent of Londoners voted leave - including large numbers in less prosperous areas of outer London where Labour holds or could gain seats.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    Kurt Vonnegut wrote a story set in the future, with elected officials chosen at random, and not permitted to refuse the role. It guaranteed all parts of society represented.

    This may be the most obscure point ever on PB, but are you sure it wasn't Arthur C Clarke in "Songs of Distant Earth" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Songs_of_Distant_Earth
    It was Imperial Earth by Clarke. Long while since I last read it, but I recall POTUS was selected by lot, not sure about Congress etc. There was also an SF short story, I think it may have been by John Wyndham, where elections consisted of aggregating all the recent opinion polls, finding the person whose opinions most closely matched and letting them run things for the next five years.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141

    Hague: Britain is facing its worst constitutional crisis for 200 years.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/10/britain-facing-worst-constitutional-crisis-200-years-will/

    If you google "With 200 days to go to the date set for Britain to leave the European Union – 29 March 2019 at 11pm – it is worth thinking about what will happen", it will take you to the Reddit page where the article is available in full.

    It's quite depressing reading.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    rpjs said:

    It was Imperial Earth by Clarke.

    I haven't read that since [thinks] the Eighties. A third of a century ago... :(

  • viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    And here's the ERG plan for Northern Ireland - https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7224083/pm-chequers-brexit-ireland-tax/

    Flying squads of tax inspectors would roam Northern Ireland after Brexit under an alternative plan drawn up by senior Tories to “destroy Chequers”, The Sun can reveal.

    Arch-Eurosceptics believe a Hard Border with the EU could be avoided by “Inland Clearance” that would see goods made for export subject to spot checks from officials in factories and at arrival destinations.

    Looks like a perfectly sensible plan. Customs, as well as VAT and income tax, already works on self-assessment backed by audit and penalties. There is no reason why exporters cannot be required to self declare. As previously noted, the vast majority by value of exports between NI and ROI in driven by a very small number of companies. If NI retained the same regulatory framework as the UK, there would be no objection to inspections at the Irish Sea to monitor compliance (I think there are already). Obviously there will need to be an exemption for smaller players which of course the EU should have no problem agreeing given their obvious genuine concern for the peace process...

    So, now we can dispense with the NI scare campaign we can all focus on CETA and a sensible outcome to Brexit.
    "We"?

    Any deal has to be agreed between the UK Government and the EU. Is anybody in the UK Government (which, inter alia, does not include Parliament) offering CETA to the EU?
    No, and that is the problem. The UK Government, desperate to placate the losers of the referendum, refuse to discuss the only deal that has any chance of being adopted and passing Parliament.
    Interesting problem. There seems to be no option that satisfies the UK Government, the EU, and the UK Parliament. Ouch... :(
    CETA will satisfy the UK Government and UK Parliament. It would also satisfy the EU as they have said. The only thing standing in its way is Barnier's pet NI backstop, which is simply a cynical attempt to allow him to manipulate the UK after signing the withdrawal agreement and roll back on everything he has 'agreed'. So the backstop has to go if there is to be a deal.

    If Remainers really wanted an ongoing relationship with the EU and to avoid No Deal and support the NI peace process as they claim, they would also be saying that the NI backstop needs to be withdrawn. But they don't, because all they really want is to reverse the result of the referendum.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited September 2018
    Danny565 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Danny565 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    "What didn't kill me made me stronger"....
    He has a point though doesn't he? What Momentum are doing to the likes of Field, Hoey and Shuker is only what the PLP did to Corbyn really
    The difference being that Momentum represent only themselves whereas the MPs were elected by voters, many of whom will not be Labour Party members. So maybe, just maybe, those MPs have a better sense of what voters want than party members. Possibly.
    And when exactly over the last few years have those MPs demonstrated this supposed grasp of "what voters want".

    Which election strategy did best: 2015 which was broadly in line with the PLP's political instincts, or 2017 which was broadly in line with Momentum's political instincts?
    Tony Blair, despised by Momentum, won three elections. Miliband and Corbyn both lost the elections they have fought.
    Yes, Blair won elections, over a decade ago. Things have changed just a bit since then. In more recent times, the ;abour "moderates" flunked it everytime they were put in charge of a political strategy.
    What is the current Labour party's political strategy to boost its vote from last years defeat? It seems to have hit a brick wall on how to further expand its support and are reliant on the Tory vote falling enough to get them over the line. They're also going backwards in Scotland.

    Labour haven't tried the 'Blair way' of trying to appeal to win over Tory voters since they lost power. If they lose three elections in a row maybe they should consider it.
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