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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some pretty grim polling in London for the Tories, Labour, and
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some pretty grim polling in London for the Tories, Labour, and Sadiq Khan
London Westminster voting intention:
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Cheque is in the post, TSE.
(Bet YJB is glad he's not facing the hat trick ball...)
He's not retiring as well is he?
There's no such comfort for the Conservatives: 35% in both 2015 and 2010.
For the LibDems, it's a pretty good recovery from the annus horribilis of 2015, when they sank to a derisory 8%, down from 22% in 2010.
Full figures for the last three GEs here:
https://data.london.gov.uk/apps_and_analysis/the-2017-general-election-the-numbers-behind-the-result/
https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/general-election-results-2015
New NI boundaries
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45474526
almost drawn to match ethnic headcount
Sadiq's not doing particularly well. His response on the knife-crime crisis in particular has been lacklustre at best, and he's mismanaged the TfL finances. But he's not doing so badly that he's in danger, unless the narrative changes substantially.
the controversial issue was to take one seat from Belfast. Looks like they have ducked out doing that.
And Londoners might just like that.
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1039147470113202178
London Colney (the ward with the smallest LD vote) is transferred to Hertsmere, whilst Woodside is gained from Watford and Leavesden and Abbots Langley & Bedmond are gained from Three Rivers district (Bedmond was already part of St Albans constituency).
All three additional wards have LD councillors.
"I'll eat my hat", "We must respect the vote" etc.
Excellent London poll for the minor parties especially the LDs but with the Greens and UKIP also picking themselves off the floor.
Very early days in terms of 2020 but Sadiq is in a very strong position. Labour are entrenched in Inner London and in truth the Conservatives have been driven back to a few heartlands in the suburbs. The numbers don't stack well for a non-Labour candidate.
Sadiq's tenure so far hasn't been without its problems - the damage done to police numbers and the closure of stations was perpetrated by Boris and the reduction in beat policing in favour of a more mobile approach stems from the Home Secretary in the Coalition years whose name escapes me - but I've heard little positive in response from Sadiq or his advisers.
I do think on housing Sadiq has been woeful - some Boroughs are trying to crank up the house building programme but overall too little has been done to meet the ever-growing demand.
The Conservative Mayoral candidate is going to have to acknowledge the flaws of the Johnson years if he or she is going to reach beyond the core vote.
In fact PBers, what would you reckon the odds or implied percentage for "nailed on" is?
Against that, yes of course he has a massive structural advantage. He's clearly odds-on favourite. On checking the odds I was surprised to see I could get 1.41 on Betfair, which seemed excellent value so I took some. I'd say fair odds would be about 1.15 as things stand.
I've moved from "The Leftover Bits Of South Oxfordshire That Don't Fit In With Any Cities Or Big Towns" to "A Long Random Squiggle From Drayton To Bicester That Skims Oxford Just Because"
Yes, well. I nearly managed to move to Henley, apparently. Somehow.
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/978249963476893696
Oddly, it hasn't had a negative effect on anyone or damaged their feeling of belonging or self esteem, as far as I am aware.
You might have more fun in the local government version.
To be fair to the Boundaries Commission, the idea of exactly 600 single-seat constituencies of very close electorates is always going to cause this, unless we just happen to have exactly 600 natural communities in the country and all of those with very similar populations.
The entire putative link between parliamentary constituencies and any natural community has long become a fiction; this just exaggerates something that was already strongly there. Thus the only-partly-tongue-in-cheek suggestion that they stop paying even lip service to it and just redraw from left to right based purely on population. Forget counties, regions, towns, whatever. If the border runs down a road in the middle of a village, so be it. As you say, few people care.
(Alternatively, have multi-member constituencies based on, say, counties. Change the number of members for a given county when populations change or the total number of MPs is supposed to change. Job done, actual community link sustained)
Doubt the PLP will split at all, but if it does, that could be the key moment.
#purgecontinues
https://twitter.com/Rajdeep1/status/1039167505221275649
Not that he'll stand again.
I would think "nailed on" must equate to a 40/1 chance of it not happening. So 50/1 chance of Obama becoming US President would be super-nailed on not going to happen.
Oh.
I'll eat a pizza with pineapple and banana on it if India pull this off.
I would have gone for 650 seats, with each one +/- 10% of the average. I would also ensure that boundaries are updated on a five year cycle using the electoral roll, which would hopefully mean they wouldn't need periodic big changes.
https://twitter.com/mikelovestweets/status/1039138961317421056
I doubt it will pass to be honest.
Now the interesting thing is that if the reduction does go ahead, it will be welcomed by Labour's entryist trots as forcing reselection in every seat.
We could manage perfectly well with 500 or even 450.
It would require a reduction in the number of ministers to reduce the payroll vote. But we are over-represented at the moment.
We could have had the previous system, and even loosened it further to align more closely with natural communities.
As a fringe benefit, it would encourage arithmetic among the whips.
Last 5 minutes. Do those grade A shits in the ERG want Corbyn to be PM ?