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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some pretty grim polling in London for the Tories, Labour, and

124

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  • murali_s said:

    murali_s said:

    On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.

    London is certainly different to the rest of the nation, but perhaps not quite as different as you make out. It’s our capital city (of England and of the UK) and doesn’t stand for something wildly different from that. It doesn’t “belong” to any one tribe or form of political opinion.

    There are still plenty of Conservatives (and, indeed, even Leavers) there who think London does well from the current Government and are fearful of the alternative.
    Jesus! You obviously don't live and work in London. The Tories are in free-fall here and have been for a while. The Tories have nothing to offer the educated, sophisticated, young and ethnically diverse population of London.

    Expect the Tories to be sub 20% at the next GE my deluded right-wing friend!
    Umm. I work in London. I’m there every day and lots of my friends are Londoners.

    Muppet.
    What is it with these Brexit right-wing lunatic types on here?

    I am just saying what quite a few moderate Tories have been saying for years. London is moving away from the Tories and continues to do so. The Tories offer NOTHING, NADA, ZILCH to Londoners and it shows in elections and polling.

    Wake Up!
    Yeah, ok.

    Whatever.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    AndyJS said:

    Two German polls today put the CDU/CSU on 28%:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    1h1 hour ago
    Germany, INSA poll:
    CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% (-1)
    AfD-EFDD: 18% (+1)
    SPD-S&D: 17% (+1)
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 14%
    LINKE-LEFT: 11% (+1)
    FDP-ALDE: 9% (-1)
    Field work: 7/09/18 – 10/09/18
    Sample size: 2,042"

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    9h9 hours ago
    Germany, Civey poll:
    CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% (-3)
    SPD-S&D: 17% (-1)
    AfD-EFDD: 16% (+2)
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 15%
    LINKE-LEFT: 10%
    FDP-ALDE: 8%
    Field work: 3/09/18 – 10/09/18
    Sample size: 11,832"

    Who is it that I have a bet with that AfD+Die Linke will score 30 points or higher at the next election?
  • "What didn't kill me made me stronger"....
    "I believe whatever doesn't kill you simply make you... stranger!"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Isn’t flag burning the only proper way to dispose of a flag?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Dems gain Ted Cruz's seat?
    I remember seeing a poll where the Dems were ahead in Indiana, and possibly Tennessee ! I am like +£3 GOP/+£36 Dems on the Senate right now. Wherever the votes are, the numbers look dire for Trump right now.
    Of course this doesn't mean he isn't getting back in in 2020 but I really think the Senate is definitely in play now.
    I'm coming to that conclusion as well.
    https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1039170118310342658
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:
    37% think he respects the rule of law? What will it take?
    May be they think it’s the law of the jungle?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:
    I’m going with whine and bitch and moan but do nothing constructive
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Dems gain Ted Cruz's seat?
    I remember seeing a poll where the Dems were ahead in Indiana, and possibly Tennessee ! I am like +£3 GOP/+£36 Dems on the Senate right now. Wherever the votes are, the numbers look dire for Trump right now.
    Of course this doesn't mean he isn't getting back in in 2020 but I really think the Senate is definitely in play now.
    I'm coming to that conclusion as well.
    Glad I'm on Dems for Senate. Looked a bit of a bonkers bet for a while, but now...
  • RobD said:

    Isn’t flag burning the only proper way to dispose of a flag?
    Nope.

    I once owned toilet rolls that resembled the French flag.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    Isn’t flag burning the only proper way to dispose of a flag?
    Nope.

    I once owned toilet rolls that resembled the French flag.
    Touché.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Dems gain Ted Cruz's seat?
    I remember seeing a poll where the Dems were ahead in Indiana, and possibly Tennessee ! I am like +£3 GOP/+£36 Dems on the Senate right now. Wherever the votes are, the numbers look dire for Trump right now.
    Of course this doesn't mean he isn't getting back in in 2020 but I really think the Senate is definitely in play now.
    I'm coming to that conclusion as well.
    Glad I'm on Dems for Senate. Looked a bit of a bonkers bet for a while, but now...
    You'll be considered a visionary if it comes off.
  • Is it the lagershed yet?

    Because I have a joke to share.
  • MikeL said:

    Some Con opposition to new boundaries is that it increases the power of the Executive.

    So here's an idea - don't introduce new boundaries by Statutory Instrument, but INSTEAD:

    Introduce a new Bill to Parliament which:

    1) Changes max number of Ministers, number who can be paid etc
    2) Implements Boundary Commission reports

    It's also much harder for Con MPs to vote against a Bill at 2nd / 3rd Reading than to oppose an SI.

    Govt can even accept amendments as long as Bill does implement boundaries.

    Agreeing to reduce the size of the payroll vote is a sensible policy that should follow on from reducing the number of MPs.

    Personally I would remove Parliament entirely from the Boundary process other than setting the total number and size spread. Now that is done, boundary reviews should be done in the first year of a 5 year Parliament ready for use at the next election.

    Yes, there would need to be a mechanism in place for what happens if the Commons votes to go for an early election - but it should not be beyond the capabilities of government lawyers to work that out.

    But it is wrong for MPs to vote on these things.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Is it the lagershed yet?

    Because I have a joke to share.

    It is
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    RobD said:

    Isn’t flag burning the only proper way to dispose of a flag?
    Blimey, that photo angle of Cruz's face takes "the camera adding 5 lbs" to a whole new level !
  • Is it the lagershed yet?

    Because I have a joke to share.

    It is
    The person who invented the vibrator, did they think

    'Build it and they will come [sic]?'
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,910

    the polls highlight once again the slow death of the SPD

    And the slow death of the CDU/CSU which polled 42% in 2013 and has lost a third of that.

    Astonishing to see the COMBINED CDU/CSU/SPD number at 45%.
  • Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Isn’t flag burning the only proper way to dispose of a flag?
    Blimey, that photo angle of Cruz's face takes "the camera adding 5 lbs" to a whole new level !
    He shares a make-up artist with Dame Edna on the basis of that pic!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Is it the lagershed yet?

    Because I have a joke to share.

    It is
    The person who invented the vibrator, did they think

    'Build it and they will come [sic]?'
    Don't give up the day job :wink:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    That’d pretty shocking that Cruz can put up an ad like that. Presumably from a PAC (no “I’m Ted Cruz and I endorse this message”) but even so
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    There is no real affection for Corbyn in the Midlands cities - Birmingham voted in a Tory mayor, after all.

    I wouldn’t read too much into that. Street wasn’t a normal Tory candidate and only won because of huge votes in middle class areas like Solihull. Birmingham itself is still a very Labour city.

    I was however suprised by Walsall voting for Street.

    EDIT: Oh and the Labour candidate was crap.
    What, Sion Simon - the Nostrodamus of our times? How can you suggest such a thing.....

    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Dems gain Ted Cruz's seat?
    I remember seeing a poll where the Dems were ahead in Indiana, and possibly Tennessee ! I am like +£3 GOP/+£36 Dems on the Senate right now. Wherever the votes are, the numbers look dire for Trump right now.
    Of course this doesn't mean he isn't getting back in in 2020 but I really think the Senate is definitely in play now.
    I'm coming to that conclusion as well.
    Glad I'm on Dems for Senate. Looked a bit of a bonkers bet for a while, but now...
    I cannot see much value at present in the BFX Senate markets.
  • There is no real affection for Corbyn in the Midlands cities - Birmingham voted in a Tory mayor, after all.

    I wouldn’t read too much into that. Street wasn’t a normal Tory candidate and only won because of huge votes in middle class areas like Solihull. Birmingham itself is still a very Labour city.

    I was however suprised by Walsall voting for Street.

    EDIT: Oh and the Labour candidate was crap.
    What, Sion Simon - the Nostrodamus of our times? How can you suggest such a thing.....

    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    Why has that article never been shared on PB before?
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I have a lot of sympathy with Andy Cooke's view. Yes, the previous system was far too loose, with some seats almost three times the size of others. But the new system seems to be too tight, and means that other boundaries - rivers, settlements, councils, etc. - are completely ignored.

    I would have gone for 650 seats, with each one +/- 10% of the average. I would also ensure that boundaries are updated on a five year cycle using the electoral roll, which would hopefully mean they wouldn't need periodic big changes.

    I don't agree with the reduction.

    I doubt it will pass to be honest.
    600 MPs for a nation of our size is perfectly adequate representation, it really is.

    We could manage perfectly well with 500 or even 450.

    It would require a reduction in the number of ministers to reduce the payroll vote. But we are over-represented at the moment.
    Perhaps we could reduce the number of FPTP seats to 500 or so and then make up the numbers with seats allocated by PR, a bit like the system of leveling seats. That would allow more natural looking constituencies but still give parties with broad but shallow support a chance.
    We rejected AV. There is no appetite for another attempt at a PR voting system - even a partial one.
    We were told on here that AV is not proportional and could in fact be worse than FPTP.
    That's because AV is not proportional and can indeed often lead to less proportional results.
    If the Tory Party can elect their leader via a form of quasi-AV then it is good enough for the country.
    We've been through this so many times - it's an Exhaustive Ballot, NOT AV! You don't rank the candidates in order of preference in a single round of voting!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exhaustive_ballot
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    And with MoE ranges (i.e. 95% confidence), the ranges would be:

    Con : 255-283
    Lab : 250-278
    LD : 38-53
    SNP : 20-24
    UKIP : 4-21
    Green : 1-19
    DUP : 4-9
    Sinn Fein : 4-6
    Plaid Cymru : 3-6
    SDLP : 1-3
    Alliance: 1-3
    UUP : 1-3
    Spkr: 0-1
    Independents and Minor Parties: (estimated 2-7)
  • Is it the lagershed yet?

    Because I have a joke to share.

    It is
    The person who invented the vibrator, did they think

    'Build it and they will come [sic]?'
    They will come sick? Blimey!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    There is no real affection for Corbyn in the Midlands cities - Birmingham voted in a Tory mayor, after all.

    I wouldn’t read too much into that. Street wasn’t a normal Tory candidate and only won because of huge votes in middle class areas like Solihull. Birmingham itself is still a very Labour city.

    I was however suprised by Walsall voting for Street.

    EDIT: Oh and the Labour candidate was crap.
    What, Sion Simon - the Nostrodamus of our times? How can you suggest such a thing.....

    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    Ye there was a real candidate effect in the mayorals, also it was before that fucking disaster of a campaign and manifesto May/TimothyHill launched for the GE.
    In fairness to Labour I think Burnham basically took Brady's constituency. Street was a superb result for the Tories for the West Mids mayoralty tho.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
  • Charles said:

    That’d pretty shocking that Cruz can put up an ad like that. Presumably from a PAC (no “I’m Ted Cruz and I endorse this message”) but even so
    Getting desperate?


  • We've been through this so many times - it's an Exhaustive Ballot, NOT AV! You don't rank the candidates in order of preference in a single round of voting!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exhaustive_ballot

    English is not your first language is it?

    Look up 'quasi' in a dictionary.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Is it possible, even conceivable that the Americans could have done worse than Trump? You would have thought not but I give you Ted Cruz.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    I'd imagine you pour the contents of all the ballot boxes for a given constituency into a big pit (with the order of the ballot boxes chosen at random; possibly by assigning a number to each box and pulling out the number at random each time) and the Returning Officer, blindfolded, jumps into the put, snatches one, and holds it up.
    It'd be quite fun, I'd think.


  • We've been through this so many times - it's an Exhaustive Ballot, NOT AV! You don't rank the candidates in order of preference in a single round of voting!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exhaustive_ballot

    English is not your first language is it?

    Look up 'quasi' in a dictionary.
    Is Urdu your first langauge?

    Try using the correct terminology for the Tory election:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exhaustive_ballot
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Can I just say, completely off topic, families! Or rather children! As soon as you think they’re sort of settled and ok something kicks you/them in the arse.

    Do you ever stop worrying about your children? And how can you help them when they’re young adults, have to make their own decisions but also need/ask for guidance?

    It’s like bloody snakes and ladders!
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,081

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Who gets to fill the barrel?
  • Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Isn’t flag burning the only proper way to dispose of a flag?
    Blimey, that photo angle of Cruz's face takes "the camera adding 5 lbs" to a whole new level !
    He shares a make-up artist with Dame Edna on the basis of that pic!
    More Mrs Doubtfire :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    Would all the votes still be counted in an SSV system? If not, how would you guard against fraud?
  • Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Isn’t flag burning the only proper way to dispose of a flag?
    Blimey, that photo angle of Cruz's face takes "the camera adding 5 lbs" to a whole new level !
    He shares a make-up artist with Dame Edna on the basis of that pic!
    More Mrs Doubtfire :)
    That is also possible. Needs work either way
  • Former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who quit in July over Chequers, said the Conservatives would face a catastrophic split if May relied on Labour votes to push her proposals through parliament.

    Good point, Steve.

    And if the ERG rely on Labour votes to scupper her proposals....?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/10/johnson-trying-to-stop-may-chequers-brexit-plan
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited September 2018

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    I'd imagine you pour the contents of all the ballot boxes for a given constituency into a big pit (with the order of the ballot boxes chosen at random; possibly by assigning a number to each box and pulling out the number at random each time) and the Returning Officer, blindfolded, jumps into the put, snatches one, and holds it up.
    It'd be quite fun, I'd think.
    Not as fun as the Nabavi Variant!
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    Would all the votes still be counted in an SSV system? If not, how would you guard against fraud?
    Because there is a random element counting all the votes is a poor guard against fraud.

    You would prevent fraud by following unbiased procedures.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916
    edited September 2018
    Scott_P said:
    How anybody can think Trump is "honest and trustworthy" is beyond me. Trump is a world-class liar.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who quit in July over Chequers, said the Conservatives would face a catastrophic split if May relied on Labour votes to push her proposals through parliament.

    Good point, Steve.

    And if the ERG rely on Labour votes to scupper her proposals....?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/10/johnson-trying-to-stop-may-chequers-brexit-plan

    With every day that passes, the ERG are increasingly revealing themselves to be a bunch of clueless f*ckers.
  • Former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who quit in July over Chequers, said the Conservatives would face a catastrophic split if May relied on Labour votes to push her proposals through parliament.

    Good point, Steve.

    And if the ERG rely on Labour votes to scupper her proposals....?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/10/johnson-trying-to-stop-may-chequers-brexit-plan

    With every day that passes, the ERG are increasingly revealing themselves to be a bunch of clueless f*ckers.
    Where's the plan?
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Yes, there are lots of benefits to the system. With any physical method of choosing the winning ballot I'd worry about party leaflets giving advice on the optimal folding method to bias it.

    I think then you might have to abandon paper and pencil and use coloured/numbered plastic tokens, or something similar to that, so you could control the physical characteristics of each vote.
  • Former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who quit in July over Chequers, said the Conservatives would face a catastrophic split if May relied on Labour votes to push her proposals through parliament.

    Good point, Steve.

    And if the ERG rely on Labour votes to scupper her proposals....?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/10/johnson-trying-to-stop-may-chequers-brexit-plan

    With every day that passes, the ERG are increasingly revealing themselves to be a bunch of clueless f*ckers.
    Not sure I'd quite say that. They are quite remarkably successful wreckers. Steve Baker in particular was a devastatingly effective organiser of guerrilla attacks on Cameron.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Furthermore, abandon the concept of a secret ballot, let every voter put their name on their vote, and the one whose vote is drawn wins a cash prize - that would increase participation.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say, completely off topic, families! Or rather children! As soon as you think they’re sort of settled and ok something kicks you/them in the arse.

    Do you ever stop worrying about your children? And how can you help them when they’re young adults, have to make their own decisions but also need/ask for guidance?

    It’s like bloody snakes and ladders!

    Oh dear. I hope it’s nothing too serious.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916
    edited September 2018
    DavidL said:

    Is it possible, even conceivable that the Americans could have done worse than Trump? You would have thought not but I give you Ted Cruz.
    Donald Trump came damn close to starting a war via Twitter earlier this year. Cruz may be a waste of oxygen and morally bankrupt, but he's not likely to do the crazy stuff Trump is.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Furthermore, abandon the concept of a secret ballot, let every voter put their name on their vote, and the one whose vote is drawn wins a cash prize - that would increase participation.
    Brilliant!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who quit in July over Chequers, said the Conservatives would face a catastrophic split if May relied on Labour votes to push her proposals through parliament.

    Good point, Steve.

    And if the ERG rely on Labour votes to scupper her proposals....?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/10/johnson-trying-to-stop-may-chequers-brexit-plan

    With every day that passes, the ERG are increasingly revealing themselves to be a bunch of clueless f*ckers.
    Not sure I'd quite say that. They are quite remarkably successful wreckers. Steve Baker in particular was a devastatingly effective organiser of guerrilla attacks on Cameron.
    The Luddites were also 'successful wreckers'. How apt.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say, completely off topic, families! Or rather children! As soon as you think they’re sort of settled and ok something kicks you/them in the arse.

    Do you ever stop worrying about your children? And how can you help them when they’re young adults, have to make their own decisions but also need/ask for guidance?

    It’s like bloody snakes and ladders!

    Yeah, know the feeling, but I wouldn't be told at that age either.

    Fox jr has a lovely girlfriend now, who has that most desirable feature, a forgiving nature. I wouldn't mind having them off the payroll though.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say, completely off topic, families! Or rather children! As soon as you think they’re sort of settled and ok something kicks you/them in the arse.

    Do you ever stop worrying about your children? And how can you help them when they’re young adults, have to make their own decisions but also need/ask for guidance?

    It’s like bloody snakes and ladders!

    We are 75 and 79 and never stop worrying about our children (52, 47 and 43) their partners or indeed our grandchildren. It is a lifetime's work !!!!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Yes, there are lots of benefits to the system. With any physical method of choosing the winning ballot I'd worry about party leaflets giving advice on the optimal folding method to bias it.

    I think then you might have to abandon paper and pencil and use coloured/numbered plastic tokens, or something similar to that, so you could control the physical characteristics of each vote.
    Electronic voting. Much easier to fiddle manage.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    I’m not the EU’s biggest fan. Still, I have a sneaking regard for Barnier. I only wish we had someone as impressive as him on our side of the negotiating table.

    On topic, you do have to wonder who comprises the 26% who are supporting the Conservatives in London. Given the party's entire raison d'etre at present is to stand against everything that London stands for, it's remarkable that they poll so highly. The self-hatred among this cohort must be off the scale.

    Not necessarily. They may loathe / despise / fear Labour more so choose the Tories, faute de mieux.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who quit in July over Chequers, said the Conservatives would face a catastrophic split if May relied on Labour votes to push her proposals through parliament.

    Good point, Steve.

    And if the ERG rely on Labour votes to scupper her proposals....?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/10/johnson-trying-to-stop-may-chequers-brexit-plan

    With every day that passes, the ERG are increasingly revealing themselves to be a bunch of clueless f*ckers.
    Not sure I'd quite say that. They are quite remarkably successful wreckers. Steve Baker in particular was a devastatingly effective organiser of guerrilla attacks on Cameron.
    "The urge to destroy is also a creative urge"

    Mikhail Bakunin

    This quote is also apposite for the ERG:

    "If you took the most ardent revolutionary, vested him in absolute power, within a year he would be worse than the Tsar himself"
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say, completely off topic, families! Or rather children! As soon as you think they’re sort of settled and ok something kicks you/them in the arse.

    Do you ever stop worrying about your children? And how can you help them when they’re young adults, have to make their own decisions but also need/ask for guidance?

    It’s like bloody snakes and ladders!

    We are 75 and 79 and never stop worrying about our children (52, 47 and 43) their partners or indeed our grandchildren. It is a lifetime's work !!!!
    My mum worried about my sister, myself and other family members until she died at 94.

    I think children are just about independent by 35 to 40 these days, unless they have kids, then the dependence goes on another 20 years or so.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited September 2018
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say, completely off topic, families! Or rather children! As soon as you think they’re sort of settled and ok something kicks you/them in the arse.

    Do you ever stop worrying about your children? And how can you help them when they’re young adults, have to make their own decisions but also need/ask for guidance?

    It’s like bloody snakes and ladders!

    Yeah, know the feeling, but I wouldn't be told at that age either.

    Fox jr has a lovely girlfriend now, who has that most desirable feature, a forgiving nature. I wouldn't mind having them off the payroll though.
    We've no children ourselves (just lots of nephews and nieces) - so I'm not really in a position to comment but... Am I imiagining that today's 20 and 30-somethings are supported by their parents to a far greater extent than we were at that age?

    (I do appreciate they have challenges e.g. in housing and university fees we never faced.)
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Furthermore, abandon the concept of a secret ballot, let every voter put their name on their vote, and the one whose vote is drawn wins a cash prize - that would increase participation.
    Would “Liberal Democrats” count as a Pointless Answer?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited September 2018
    Anazina said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Furthermore, abandon the concept of a secret ballot, let every voter put their name on their vote, and the one whose vote is drawn wins a cash prize - that would increase participation.
    Would “Liberal Democrats” count as a Pointless Answer?
    Less so than it does in most constituencies under our current FPTP system.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,081

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Furthermore, abandon the concept of a secret ballot, let every voter put their name on their vote, and the one whose vote is drawn wins a cash prize - that would increase participation.
    Brilliant!
    Indeed, why bother with the whole voting process? Just pick a voter & ask who s/he'd vote for.

    ISTR somebody wrote a story about that voting method.
  • Former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who quit in July over Chequers, said the Conservatives would face a catastrophic split if May relied on Labour votes to push her proposals through parliament.

    Good point, Steve.

    And if the ERG rely on Labour votes to scupper her proposals....?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/10/johnson-trying-to-stop-may-chequers-brexit-plan

    With every day that passes, the ERG are increasingly revealing themselves to be a bunch of clueless f*ckers.
    Clueless is kind - they need putting back in their box and I believe TM will do just that or, irony of all ironies, they may see a second referendum down their unrealistic hopes for once and for all

    For me it is TM deal and if not, a second referendum (peoples vote is a dishonest title)
  • Good - but it should have happened as a result of an outcry from the party leadership

    Now if the PLP will just get their act together and do something constructive to build a left of centre party, we will all be in a better place.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    It would be quite tricky to have a political career. About 40% of the Cabinet would lose their seats at every election, including possibly the PM.

    On the plus side, I might have won.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who quit in July over Chequers, said the Conservatives would face a catastrophic split if May relied on Labour votes to push her proposals through parliament.

    Good point, Steve.

    And if the ERG rely on Labour votes to scupper her proposals....?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/10/johnson-trying-to-stop-may-chequers-brexit-plan

    With every day that passes, the ERG are increasingly revealing themselves to be a bunch of clueless f*ckers.
    Clueless is kind - they need putting back in their box and I believe TM will do just that or, irony of all ironies, they may see a second referendum down their unrealistic hopes for once and for all

    For me it is TM deal and if not, a second referendum (peoples vote is a dishonest title)
    I am not sure People's Vote is a dishonest title but it is a naff and patronising one.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited September 2018
    AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Furthermore, abandon the concept of a secret ballot, let every voter put their name on their vote, and the one whose vote is drawn wins a cash prize - that would increase participation.
    Brilliant!
    Indeed, why bother with the whole voting process? Just pick a voter & ask who s/he'd vote for.

    ISTR somebody wrote a story about that voting method.
    Isaac Asimov

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_(short_story)
  • philiph said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say, completely off topic, families! Or rather children! As soon as you think they’re sort of settled and ok something kicks you/them in the arse.

    Do you ever stop worrying about your children? And how can you help them when they’re young adults, have to make their own decisions but also need/ask for guidance?

    It’s like bloody snakes and ladders!

    We are 75 and 79 and never stop worrying about our children (52, 47 and 43) their partners or indeed our grandchildren. It is a lifetime's work !!!!
    My mum worried about my sister, myself and other family members until she died at 94.

    I think children are just about independent by 35 to 40 these days, unless they have kids, then the dependence goes on another 20 years or so.
    They are always there but we are their safety blanket if all else fails
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say, completely off topic, families! Or rather children! As soon as you think they’re sort of settled and ok something kicks you/them in the arse.

    Do you ever stop worrying about your children? And how can you help them when they’re young adults, have to make their own decisions but also need/ask for guidance?

    It’s like bloody snakes and ladders!

    Yeah, know the feeling, but I wouldn't be told at that age either.

    Fox jr has a lovely girlfriend now, who has that most desirable feature, a forgiving nature. I wouldn't mind having them off the payroll though.
    We've no children ourselves (just lots of nephews and nieces) - so I'm not really in a position to comment but... Am I imiagining that today's 20 and 30-somethings are supported by their parents to a far greater extent than we were at that age?

    (I do appreciate they have challenges e.g. in housing and university fees we never faced.)
    I think it probably true, at least for middle class children, and it is a major bar to social mobility. No one wants their children to be downwardly mobile though.

    I am happy to help though, and while other things matter more, money is useful.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    It would be quite tricky to have a political career. About 40% of the Cabinet would lose their seats at every election, including possibly the PM.

    On the plus side, I might have won.
    So, two further advantages.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say, completely off topic, families! Or rather children! As soon as you think they’re sort of settled and ok something kicks you/them in the arse.

    Do you ever stop worrying about your children? And how can you help them when they’re young adults, have to make their own decisions but also need/ask for guidance?

    It’s like bloody snakes and ladders!

    Of course you don't stop worrying about your children, it is a part of caring. But once they are adults the distinction between need and ask for guidance is important. The second is fine, the first risks treading into dangerous waters.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:



    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).

    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Yes, there are lots of benefits to the system. With any physical method of choosing the winning ballot I'd worry about party leaflets giving advice on the optimal folding method to bias it.

    I think then you might have to abandon paper and pencil and use coloured/numbered plastic tokens, or something similar to that, so you could control the physical characteristics of each vote.
    Electronic voting. Much easier to fiddle manage.
    Yes, I wouldn't want to go down that route.

    The Single Stochastic Vote: Every vote counts, but not every vote is counted!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited September 2018

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    If only you were in government...

    This sounds like a much more sensible electoral system than Italy’s. Perhaps they could adopt it and broadcast on Berlusconi’s network?
  • Former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who quit in July over Chequers, said the Conservatives would face a catastrophic split if May relied on Labour votes to push her proposals through parliament.

    Good point, Steve.

    And if the ERG rely on Labour votes to scupper her proposals....?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/10/johnson-trying-to-stop-may-chequers-brexit-plan

    With every day that passes, the ERG are increasingly revealing themselves to be a bunch of clueless f*ckers.
    Clueless is kind - they need putting back in their box and I believe TM will do just that or, irony of all ironies, they may see a second referendum down their unrealistic hopes for once and for all

    For me it is TM deal and if not, a second referendum (peoples vote is a dishonest title)
    I am not sure People's Vote is a dishonest title but it is a naff and patronising one.
    It is just misleading and it should be called as it is
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    It would be quite tricky to have a political career. About 40% of the Cabinet would lose their seats at every election, including possibly the PM.

    On the plus side, I might have won.
    So, two further advantages.
    Surely that system only produces broadly proportional seat numbers if each party's votes are spread broadly the same in each constituency - especially for smaller parties. If, for example, UKIP's votes were all heavily concentrated in 3 or 4 seats and almost nothing anywhere else, they wont get 4% of seats overall?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Furthermore, abandon the concept of a secret ballot, let every voter put their name on their vote, and the one whose vote is drawn wins a cash prize - that would increase participation.
    Brilliant!
    Indeed, why bother with the whole voting process? Just pick a voter & ask who s/he'd vote for.

    ISTR somebody wrote a story about that voting method.
    Asimov, I think. Computers were used to identify the "typical" voter in the US who best reflected the majority and his or her decision was then final.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    It would be quite tricky to have a political career. About 40% of the Cabinet would lose their seats at every election, including possibly the PM.

    On the plus side, I might have won.
    So, two further advantages.
    Surely that system only produces broadly proportional seat numbers if each party's votes are spread broadly the same in each constituency - especially for smaller parties. If, for example, UKIP's votes were all heavily concentrated in 3 or 4 seats and almost nothing anywhere else, they wont get 4% of seats overall?
    True, but that can be considered an advantage.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    "What didn't kill me made me stronger"....
    He has a point though doesn't he? What Momentum are doing to the likes of Field, Hoey and Shuker is only what the PLP did to Corbyn really
    The difference being that Momentum represent only themselves whereas the MPs were elected by voters, many of whom will not be Labour Party members. So maybe, just maybe, those MPs have a better sense of what voters want than party members. Possibly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady
    Furthermore, abandon the concept of a secret ballot, let every voter put their name on their vote, and the one whose vote is drawn wins a cash prize - that would increase participation.
    Brilliant!
    Indeed, why bother with the whole voting process? Just pick a voter & ask who s/he'd vote for.

    ISTR somebody wrote a story about that voting method.
    Isaac Asimov

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_(short_story)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_(short_story)
    Kurt Vonnegut wrote a story set in the future, with elected officials chosen at random, and not permitted to refuse the role. It guaranteed all parts of society represented.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    Charles said:

    That’s pretty shocking that Cruz can put up an ad like that. Presumably from a PAC (no “I’m Ted Cruz and I endorse this message”) but even so
    Why the shock, Charles ?

    Par for the Cruz, I’d think.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Is it possible, even conceivable that the Americans could have done worse than Trump? You would have thought not but I give you Ted Cruz.
    Donald Trump came damn close to starting a war via Twitter earlier this year. Cruz may be a waste of oxygen and morally bankrupt, but he's not likely to do the crazy stuff Trump is.
    You think? He seems a complete arsehole to me. I would be delighted if he had the embarrassment of losing Texas.
  • Cyclefree said:

    "What didn't kill me made me stronger"....
    He has a point though doesn't he? What Momentum are doing to the likes of Field, Hoey and Shuker is only what the PLP did to Corbyn really
    The difference being that Momentum represent only themselves whereas the MPs were elected by voters, many of whom will not be Labour Party members. So maybe, just maybe, those MPs have a better sense of what voters want than party members. Possibly.
    I was trying to formulate an answer along those lines earlier and the words just wouldn't come out.

    Momentum is seeking to impose delegates rather than representatives. People they can control. They pretend to want local democracy but actually want a whole cadre of yes men and women who will do what the central leadership want - rather than actually representing their entire electorates. And that is not how democracy should work.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    It would be quite tricky to have a political career. About 40% of the Cabinet would lose their seats at every election, including possibly the PM.

    On the plus side, I might have won.
    So, two further advantages.
    Surely that system only produces broadly proportional seat numbers if each party's votes are spread broadly the same in each constituency - especially for smaller parties. If, for example, UKIP's votes were all heavily concentrated in 3 or 4 seats and almost nothing anywhere else, they wont get 4% of seats overall?
    Though they would stand a higher chance in those constituencies, so on a statistical basis it wouldn't make much difference.


  • Surely that system only produces broadly proportional seat numbers if each party's votes are spread broadly the same in each constituency - especially for smaller parties. If, for example, UKIP's votes were all heavily concentrated in 3 or 4 seats and almost nothing anywhere else, they wont get 4% of seats overall?

    4% of the vote would be equal to 100% of the vote in 26 constituencies, so a highly concentrated vote is still likely to be rewarded, but I think that the more uneven the support for a party the greater the chance that randomness will move away from proportionality. Still, with 600-650 constituencies the potential for randomness to produce a less proportional result than FPTP is minimal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    That sounds very um European so couldn't really work in the new Brexit world...
    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    It would be quite tricky to have a political career. About 40% of the Cabinet would lose their seats at every election, including possibly the PM.

    On the plus side, I might have won.
    So, two further advantages.
    Surely that system only produces broadly proportional seat numbers if each party's votes are spread broadly the same in each constituency - especially for smaller parties. If, for example, UKIP's votes were all heavily concentrated in 3 or 4 seats and almost nothing anywhere else, they wont get 4% of seats overall?
    Not sure you could heavily concentrate 4% of the national vote in just 3 or 4 of 650 seats.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Furthermore, abandon the concept of a secret ballot, let every voter put their name on their vote, and the one whose vote is drawn wins a cash prize - that would increase participation.
    Brilliant!
    Indeed, why bother with the whole voting process? Just pick a voter & ask who s/he'd vote for.

    ISTR somebody wrote a story about that voting method.
    Isaac Asimov

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_(short_story)
    From Earth is room enough. A superb collection of short stories I have not read in decades. He was at the peak of his powers at that time. Must dig it out again.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    DavidL said:

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Is it possible, even conceivable that the Americans could have done worse than Trump? You would have thought not but I give you Ted Cruz.
    Donald Trump came damn close to starting a war via Twitter earlier this year. Cruz may be a waste of oxygen and morally bankrupt, but he's not likely to do the crazy stuff Trump is.
    You think? He seems a complete arsehole to me. I would be delighted if he had the embarrassment of losing Texas.
    When we look at US politicians, suddenly our own don't look quite so awful.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Is it possible, even conceivable that the Americans could have done worse than Trump? You would have thought not but I give you Ted Cruz.
    Donald Trump came damn close to starting a war via Twitter earlier this year. Cruz may be a waste of oxygen and morally bankrupt, but he's not likely to do the crazy stuff Trump is.
    You think? He seems a complete arsehole to me. I would be delighted if he had the embarrassment of losing Texas.
    When we look at US politicians, suddenly our own don't look quite so awful.
    Let's not get carried away here.....
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,081
    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Furthermore, abandon the concept of a secret ballot, let every voter put their name on their vote, and the one whose vote is drawn wins a cash prize - that would increase participation.
    Brilliant!
    Indeed, why bother with the whole voting process? Just pick a voter & ask who s/he'd vote for.

    ISTR somebody wrote a story about that voting method.
    Asimov, I think. Computers were used to identify the "typical" voter in the US who best reflected the majority and his or her decision was then final.
    That's the one I was thinking of, but actually it isn't at all the same. That's a way of identifying the majority opinion, whereas what's being proposed here is just the luck of the draw. Nobody's opinion counts.
  • Foxy said:

    AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    snip
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady
    Furthermore, abandon the concept of a secret ballot, let every voter put their name on their vote, and the one whose vote is drawn wins a cash prize - that would increase participation.
    Brilliant!
    Indeed, why bother with the whole voting process? Just pick a voter & ask who s/he'd vote for.

    ISTR somebody wrote a story about that voting method.
    Isaac Asimov

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_(short_story)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_(short_story)
    Kurt Vonnegut wrote a story set in the future, with elected officials chosen at random, and not permitted to refuse the role. It guaranteed all parts of society represented.
    Billy Bragg has been proposing this for House of Lords for years.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Dems gain Ted Cruz's seat?
    I remember seeing a poll where the Dems were ahead in Indiana, and possibly Tennessee ! I am like +£3 GOP/+£36 Dems on the Senate right now. Wherever the votes are, the numbers look dire for Trump right now.
    Of course this doesn't mean he isn't getting back in in 2020 but I really think the Senate is definitely in play now.
    I'm coming to that conclusion as well.
    Glad I'm on Dems for Senate. Looked a bit of a bonkers bet for a while, but now...
    Umnm check the terms of your bet Remember two Democrats are technically independents
  • On topic, so does Labour have to back a second referendum to win back those lost London voters?

  • AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Furthermore, abandon the concept of a secret ballot, let every voter put their name on their vote, and the one whose vote is drawn wins a cash prize - that would increase participation.
    Brilliant!
    Indeed, why bother with the whole voting process? Just pick a voter & ask who s/he'd vote for.

    ISTR somebody wrote a story about that voting method.
    Asimov, I think. Computers were used to identify the "typical" voter in the US who best reflected the majority and his or her decision was then final.
    That's the one I was thinking of, but actually it isn't at all the same. That's a way of identifying the majority opinion, whereas what's being proposed here is just the luck of the draw. Nobody's opinion counts.
    When combined with the Law of Large Numbers everyone's opinion counts *and* it's the luck of the draw at the same time.

    Statistics is wonderful!
  • Foxy said:

    AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    You do know we can have a voting system that incorporates both constituencies and final % right?

    Would it be the Single Stochastic Vote (SSV) ?
    Votes are cast as at present, but then at the "count" one vote is drawn at random from the votes cast. The MP is the person whom that vote is for.
    Averaged over 600/650 seats, the results would be roughly proportional, while still maintaining the constituency link with the MP.
    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    snip
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady
    Furthermore, abandon the concept of a secret ballot, let every voter put their name on their vote, and the one whose vote is drawn wins a cash prize - that would increase participation.
    Brilliant!
    Indeed, why bother with the whole voting process? Just pick a voter & ask who s/he'd vote for.

    ISTR somebody wrote a story about that voting method.
    Isaac Asimov

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_(short_story)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_(short_story)
    Kurt Vonnegut wrote a story set in the future, with elected officials chosen at random, and not permitted to refuse the role. It guaranteed all parts of society represented.
    Billy Bragg has been proposing this for House of Lords for years.
    House of Unelected Has-Beens you mean :lol:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    It would only be as proportional on average as fptp
    That's not true at all. It would be highly proportional. If UKIP averaged 4%, there would be a 4% chance (on average) in each seat. They'd win one in 25 seats (on average).
    See my subsequent post
    I still don't think that's correct. If you like I can take the 2017 UK election results and run a Monte Carlo analysis on it.
    On the face of it, I was sceptical, but you're quite correct. The average expected numbers of MPs from SSV for 2017 would appear to be:
    Con - 268
    Lab - 264
    LD - 46
    SNP - 22
    UKIP - 12
    Green - 10
    DUP - 7
    Sinn Fein - 5
    Plaid Cymru - 4
    SDLP - 2
    Alliance - 2
    UUP - 2
    Spkr - 1
    Independents and Minor Parties - 5
    That's an amazingmy.bonkers voting system, which I love in so many ways.

    The main problem that I see is one that on the face of it is so simple. How do you draw a vote at random?
    In each constituency you hire a scantily-dressed young lady, preferably a well-endowed celebrity, to reach into a barrel of ballot papers and select one.

    It would make the TV coverage much more interesting, you could get a result within a couple of hours, it would be cheap to implement, and you could include time for commercial breaks as well.

    What's not to like?
    Furthermore, abandon the concept of a secret ballot, let every voter put their name on their vote, and the one whose vote is drawn wins a cash prize - that would increase participation.
    Brilliant!
    Indeed, why bother with the whole voting process? Just pick a voter & ask who s/he'd vote for.

    ISTR somebody wrote a story about that voting method.
    Asimov, I think. Computers were used to identify the "typical" voter in the US who best reflected the majority and his or her decision was then final.
    That's the one I was thinking of, but actually it isn't at all the same. That's a way of identifying the majority opinion, whereas what's being proposed here is just the luck of the draw. Nobody's opinion counts.
    Yes, Asimov was playing with what you could do with computers. He was about 50 years ahead of algorithms.
This discussion has been closed.