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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Ipsos MORI finding should worry all politicians
Our #issuesindex has been running since 1974 – we rarely add new items unless there’s a clear change – this month in the top ten for the first time – lack of faith in government/politicians…(spontaneously mentioned by respondents). Data out tomorrow
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https://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/WUKT-EU-Briefing-Paper-14-July-18-Analysis-paper_v3.pdf
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45400994
a. It was confirmed in multiple polls
b. It was a motivator of votes, and was showing up in VI and (say) a parliamentary by-election.
The Curtice poll is a striking result, though surely repeatedly polling the same group means that they pay much closer attention to the issues tha the general public ?
The research is based on repeated interviews with the same 2,048 people and compares their answers to questions on the same issues over the past
It is, however, around the level of opini9n which ought to make a second referendum a democratic necessity.
'Softer' Brexit is possible due to these factors but Brexit doesn't stop with the Conservatives in charge without major changes in the opinions of Tory voters.
The Conservative position ranges from simply walking away and pulling down the entire edifice, to remaining, via remaining but pretending not to. At the same time, Labour continue to be all things to all men. OK as a short-term ploy in order to hold things up in the polls, but certainly no use at all in a general election.
It is no wonder that there is distrust of these equivocal politicians.
Tories getting more riled at Chequers/Labour getting more "meh..."?
It would require them falling, which is why I say if the Tories are still in charge. If Labour take power solely or part of a coalition then the calculations change but whilst the Tories remain in charge the party and government position wouldn't (IMO) move away from Brexit without a serious shift in their supporters.
Although I don't quite fully understand a situation where parliament and the government are strongly conflicted but the government doesn't fall.... and to a more obvious and critical point on Brexit consistently than it has been so far under May.
And Mr Glenn's headline told the full story, which sadly it does not. Curtice says its now 53:47 to Remain.
Last week the ISS suffered a pressurisation issue when a docked Soyuz module developed a leak. At the time it was reported to be the result of a micrometeorite or debris impact, but it now appears to have been a manufacturing defect: someone drilled a hole in the wrong place, and filled it with epoxy.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/09/russian-space-chief-vows-to-find-full-name-of-technician-who-caused-iss-leak/
I'm particularly bemused by the following quote about a previous incident:
"“I have conducted investigations of all kinds of spacecraft, and after landing, we discovered a hole drilled completely through the hull of a re-entry module," the former Energia employee, Viktor Minenko, said in Gazeta.RU. "But the technician didn't report the defect to anyone but sealed up the hole with epoxy. We found the person, and after a commotion he was terminated,” said Minenko."
'Terminated' in the Russian space industry might not mean fired from his job...
This should only encourage NASA to speed up Boeing and SpaceX's modules, even if Musk is acting like an absolute childish a$$.
....attitudes towards whether the UK should be leaving the EU or not have, indeed, been remarkably stable. Britain is still more or less evenly divided between a body of voters who would vote Remain and another group that would vote Leave. Yet from the outset of the Brexit process support for Leave has generally proven a little less firm than that for Remain, and the difference between the willingness of the two sets of voters to vote the same way again may also have widened a little. Meanwhile, those who did not vote in 2016 are noticeably more inclined to say they would now vote Remain rather than Leave.
As a result, instead of a narrow majority in favour of leaving the EU recorded in the referendum in June, there might now be a narrow majority in favour of Remain
I always like the average over a few months that would get posted now and again. I would also add that whilst I don't ignore polling it isn't everything but does have its place in assessment.
But it is rather out of line with other polls.
Not a very surprising stat but noteworthy nevertheless.
Mr. Jessop, pretty serious mistake to make. Although not worthy of termination. One hopes he only lost his job.
Saw on the news last night the idiotic proposal to enshrine sexism in law by making certain acts illegal if done by men (implicitly, wasn't stated overtly) to women (was made explicitly clear). I'm not a wolf-whistler, as the site has hopefully guessed, but the idea it should be a criminal offence is crackers.
You can't base a justice system on the preferences of the most over-sensitive and easily offended people in the country. It's also indefensible to try and make misogyny a crime but not misandry (the former is still probably more commonplace but pretending the latter doesn't exist is a breathtaking example of both sexism and hypocrisy).
*sighs*
Even for those of a more moderate/indifferent point of view this has certainly not been our political class's finest hour. If this was a football match both sets of supporters would be jeering their respective managers, "you don't know what your doing". Such chants pretty much invariably lead to the sacking of the manager concerned. Who is getting sacked here?
The politicos have spent so much time pratting about with their own interests theyve forgotten the day job.
This is just another example of leave's very own Project Fear.
A general election could be a good idea if Labour were fully committed to Remain and the Conservatives to Brexit, with no rebels on either side.
Hardcore Brexiteers would have their minds focussed on getting over the exit line first and foremost rather than trying to force a TM to take a tougher stance, or even go for a no deal.
Once the UK is out the hardcore anti-EU politicians and press can start the campaign to turn the ratchet ever further away from Brussels by blaming every setback on the dead hand of the commission and our awful deal.
On the flip side if the UK outperforms you can well imagine the headlines gasping at how much better we would be doing by fully casting off the rotting carcass across the water.
I used to think that there would be a strong manifesto commitment by Labour to have a referendum on rejoining, if not at the next election then certainly the one after. I now believe we will never rejoin as it would be electoral suicide to even suggest the idea is put forward to another public vote.
Curtice himself thinks that his panel is skewed to Remain (it has always placed Remain ahead over the past two years) and that the correct figure is about 53/47.
It has been given no more thought by its proponents other than that.
It cannot win by trying to sneak a technical victory before Brexit has actually taken place. Even if it did win a 2nd referendum on such a basis, it would toxify our democracy and society for decades.
1/3rd voted Leave, 2/3rds did not. The bulk of voters were Remain or cannot-be-arsed-to-vote so only a minority are going to get so worked up to as to consider civil disobedience and most of them are in the older demographics who generally do not riot anyway. Most rioters tend to be angry YOUNG men.
I suppose there might be a glut of outraged letters in The Times. ...
What is new is that the time is seen to be one that calls for a politician of strength, integrity and vision. The public are doomed to be disappointed.
Then a civil war would start amongst the leavers, with one faction led by 'Walter Softy' JRM and the other by lazy buffoon Boris, with the former wanting to blow up Europe and the latter wanting anything that will give him power. As the leavers fight amongst themselves, the remain forces are decimated by laughter-induced injuries.
If a #peoples vote went for Remain, I would have to find my very smallest violin for the Leavers.
Die schreienden Adler has a ring to it
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/deutschland-will-briten-die-einbuergerung-leichter-machen-15772222.html
There was a surprising difference between the Indyref with its astonishing 84.6% turnout and the EU referendum at 72.2%. As I commented at the time pretty much everyone in Scotland had voted by lunchtime in the Indyref with the turnout percentages not moving much thereafter. Both sides had large GOTV operations but frankly, they weren't needed.
Whilst some on here like to go on about posters and buses (especially that poster and that bus) the reality in Scotland was that there was absolutely minimal campaigning about Brexit and very little voter engagement. No one canvassed me, I saw 2 or 3 posters, all by the SNP and in favour of remain and a complete lack of buses. It may have been different elsewhere but here the difference between the two was very marked.
Admittedly, against it, but let's not quibble.
It was an odd campaign, and mostly online and on telly.
It was the top issue 2 years ago, the EU provided no answers and the challenges of mass migration haven’t gone away.
What decline in concern there has been is probably attributable either to a decline in net migration numbers and/or a belief it will now be brought under control.
The UK options are as they were. Rescind Article 50. Exit to EEA and work out a longer term solution at leisure, or catastrophic crash Brexit. Politically the first two have been rejected by both party leaders - crash out as the default option may politically be the least worst option in a very narrow short term reading of whats at stake (not the future of the UK, just the future of the Theresa May administration)
No wonder people are increasingly sick of politicians.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1037228105591652354
Anyone serious about that now goes to private organised regional proms or battle proms.
There has been no real decline in numbers immigrating, just a change to non EU immigrants, mostly from Asia and Africa.
(Shakes head in despair)
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/sep/05/thinktank-calls-for-major-overhaul-of-britains-economy
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-public-ready-for-change-as-uk-economy-is-unfair-and-not-working-11490328
With the Tory and Labour leaderships knee-deep in nostalgia, xenophobia and anti-Semitism, all the forward-kooking, interesting ideas are coming from the centre-left.
There was a chap who knew how to be both fox and lion, as Machiavelli wrote.
Tories own Brexit. It will be their dead albatross hanging around their neck, like a giant chunky Theresa May necklace.
plus ca change
Although it does sound like a name that could belong to a Mogg, though one suspects Septimius' brand of competent ruthlessness (a bit like an ancient Francis Urquhart) might not endear him to the Moggs.