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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chris Williamson’s odds to succeed Corbyn move from 100/1 to 3

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  • No.
    Then how do you plan to get a Brexit with legitimacy? Something based on Chequers doesn't look like it will do the job.
  • Sean_F said:

    Dura Ace is motivated by a desire for revenge on people who voted for Brexit, and Corbyn has let him down.
    Of course.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    I love Canada and my eldest and his wife live in Vancouver and it is magical. But it is not home, and home is where the heart is and for me that is here in Llandudno
    Not sure anybody has put forward the "Llandudno" option. What will it involve?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    Blame master strategists Davis, Johnson and Rees-Mogg. After they came out against it, Chequers stood no chance of commanding the approval of most Leavers. Now that Boris Johnson has called it a betrayal and touted a conspiracy theory that elements of the government are seeking to sabotage Brexit, the idea is deader than flares.
    put the blame where ir should be Cameron and Osborne called the EUref and did nothing to plan for a loss.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MikeL said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 41% (+1)
    CON: 37% (-1)
    UKIP: 7% (+4)
    LDEM: 6% (-4)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    via @Survation, 31 Aug - 01 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 07 Jul

    ""I never made my line of attack overly harsh. I always tried to make it telling. The aim was to get the non-politician nodding. I would wonder not what appealed to a Labour Party Conference in full throttle, but what would appeal to my old mates at the Bar, who wanted a reasonable case to be made .... Expressed like that, these attacks seem flat, rather mundane almost, and not exactly inspiring - but that's their appeal. Any one of these charges, if it comes to believed, is actually fatal. Yes, it's not like calling your opponent a liar, or a fraud, or a villain or a hypocrite, but the middle-ground floating voter kind of shrugs their shoulders at these claims. They don't chime. They're too over the top, too heavy, and they represent an insult, not an argument. Whereas the lesser charge, because it's more accurate and precisely because it's more low-key, can stick."
  • put the blame where ir should be Cameron and Osborne called the EUref and did nothing to plan for a loss.

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1012439971188310017
  • glwglw Posts: 10,315
    edited September 2018
    The Washington Post has excerpts from Bob Woodward's book about Trump. It makes our little difficulties look like very small beer.
  • Sean_F said:

    It really wasn't dominant at government level. Governments made some eurosceptic noises, but still kept giving up powers to the EU.
    The Government could have joined the euro, schengen and the Tories stayed with the EPP etc.

    It would have given them (the UK) more influence in behind the scenes EU decisions on the same basis as the French and Germans, so long as they fully bought into the whole project and its mission.

    That influence would be the EU equivalent of Henry Ford’s old adage that you have any colour of car you want, so long as it’s black.
  • https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1012439971188310017
    You’re getting pretty desperate, William, if you’re having to cite Danny after to support your point.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Ah, those right wing posters who happily fell in behind the dog whistling racism of the Leave campaign are again rending their shirts about anti-Semitism. And they say irony is dead.

    Yes a vote for Leave was a ‘vote for racism’. Except Europe Union is not a race.
  • Then how do you plan to get a Brexit with legitimacy? Something based on Chequers doesn't look like it will do the job.
    I expect the Government and its supporters to sell it to the country and moderate Leavers to go on the record backing it as an acceptable compromise in the national interest.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    Survation has Labour ahead and UKIP overtake the LDs

    Lab 41
    Con 37
    UKIP 7
    LD 6

    https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1037032301098610688
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Sean_F said:

    Dura Ace is motivated by a desire for revenge on people who voted for Brexit, and Corbyn has let him down.
    I spent a few weeks thinking that Corbyn was the only option remaining and then he went and proved that he is as utterly useless as the current Tory party / Mrs May.

    It was not revenge that motivated me, it was a desperate hope that somebody, somewhere had a clue WTF they were doing.

    It turns it, however, that they are all clueless
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381

    What was I saying about this anti-Semitism stuff not making a difference....the lib dems really are right royally screwed.
    Even then, it's less good for Labour with Survation than the scores they were getting last year.

    I see that Survation has Leave marginally ahead of Remain in this poll.
  • put the blame where ir should be Cameron and Osborne called the EUref and did nothing to plan for a loss.
    Responsibity-avoiding Leaver alert. Since in 2018 there is no consensus among Leavers about what Leave should look like, a Remain-supporting government could never have drawn up plans before the referendum that had legitimacy.
  • Yes a vote for Leave was a ‘vote for racism’. Except Europe Union is not a race.
    The referendum was won by scaring people into believing that hordes of Turks were about to come to Britain.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381

    Responsibity-avoiding Leaver alert. Since in 2018 there is no consensus among Leavers about what Leave should look like, a Remain-supporting government could never have drawn up plans before the referendum that had legitimacy.
    Alanbrooke is not responsible for implementing the outcome. The government asked us what we thought of our membership of the EU, and we told them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,160
    edited September 2018
    Sean_F said:

    Even then, it's less good for Labour with Survation than the scores they were getting last year.

    I see that Survation has Leave marginally ahead of Remain in this poll.
    I am very wary of polls during holidays, but even then jezza has little to worry about....like his terrorist sympathies, clearly few people are concerned about anti-Semitism.

    Have we had a poll doing the top concerns recently? I would guess that crime has risen significantly in the rankings, given the daily reports of stabbings, acid attacks and moped muggings. And the government seem to have little to say about it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    Responsibity-avoiding Leaver alert. Since in 2018 there is no consensus among Leavers about what Leave should look like, a Remain-supporting government could never have drawn up plans before the referendum that had legitimacy.
    there's no consensus among leavers either. If we stayed on what basis would it be ?

    Brexit is an issue which divides

    all we have seen is our political class is not up to putting a sensible proposal to the other side and reaching a view as to what works best for all/ Or respecting a vote.

    Oddly this p[aralysis will probably produce a fudge which matches mood of the electorate
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381

    I am very wary of polls during holidays, but even then jezza has little to worry about....like his terrorist sympathies, clearly few people are concerned about anti-Semitism.

    Have we had a poll doing the top concerns recently? I would guess that crime has risen significantly in the rankings, given the daily reports of stabbings, acid attacks and moped muggings. And the government seem to have little to say about it.
    Europe and NHS are generally the top two.
  • Sean_F said:

    Alanbrooke is not responsible for implementing the outcome. The government asked us what we thought of our membership of the EU, and we told them.
    How fortunate Leavers always have someone else to blame for their malign ineptitude.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Anybody seen today's Survation???
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    The referendum was won by scaring people into believing that hordes of Turks were about to come to Britain.
    really ?

    I thought it was a bus, or a stupid electorate or the russians ...........
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,252
    MikeL said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 41% (+1)
    CON: 37% (-1)
    UKIP: 7% (+4)
    LDEM: 6% (-4)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    via @Survation, 31 Aug - 01 Sep
    Chgs. w/ 07 Jul

    LibDems all away in Europe on holiday before the kids are back at school. While they still can. Before Brexit takes away their passports.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    I am very wary of polls during holidays, but even then jezza has little to worry about....like his terrorist sympathies, clearly few people are concerned about anti-Semitism.

    Have we had a poll doing the top concerns recently? I would guess that crime has risen significantly in the rankings, given the daily reports of stabbings, acid attacks and moped muggings. And the government seem to have little to say about it.
    I wouldn't be surprised if transport (specifically the huge rise in train fares) comes up the agenda too.
  • there's no consensus among leavers either. If we stayed on what basis would it be ?

    Brexit is an issue which divides

    all we have seen is our political class is not up to putting a sensible proposal to the other side and reaching a view as to what works best for all/ Or respecting a vote.

    Oddly this p[aralysis will probably produce a fudge which matches mood of the electorate
    Yes, but we need to all fall in behind some form of practical Brexit that lets us move on, for now, or we risk the whole thing being immediately reversed as soon as there’s a change in Government.

    I don’t want to end up in the euro in less than 10 years.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,546
    edited September 2018
    Sean_F said:

    Even then, it's less good for Labour with Survation than the scores they were getting last year.

    I see that Survation has Leave marginally ahead of Remain in this poll.
    Although before LTV weightings are applied, Remain is ahead.

    Somehow they manage to have a Northern Ireland figure of 55% support for Brexit which is not credible.

    https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-Tables-1.pdf

    The poll also shows that 55% of Conservative voters think Brexit will be good for the economy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,160
    edited September 2018

    The referendum was won by scaring people into believing that hordes of Turks were about to come to Britain.
    If you had any roots in a place like Stoke you would understand the reasons were nothing to do with Turks. At the time, John Harris captured what I heard from people I know from childhood who still live there. It was perfectly summed on camera by an Asian chap, it's a shit hole, it's been a shit hole all my life, what has the EU done to make it better, sod the lot of them.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2018

    Anybody seen today's Survation???

    Who could've predicted that hysterical kneejerk criticism of anything Corbyn says or does would backfire.... I mean it's not like we saw the same thing happen in last year's election
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    HYUFD said:

    Survation has Labour ahead and UKIP overtake the LDs

    Lab 41
    Con 37
    UKIP 7
    LD 6

    https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1037032301098610688

    Should set off a new round of attacks by the Labour right wingers
  • HYUFD said:

    Canada++ is what most voters want (especially as it ends free movement unlike Norway) but the Irish border remains an obstacle to it, so the detail remains how you get customs checks minimal enough to respect the GFA (even though that is half dead anyway after the Stormont suspension) and close enough to the main Canada+ Deal for the DUP.

    Otherwise it will likely be Norway but with the price likely to be a far right anti immigration party successor to UKIP on the rise
    I really do accept you are good on detail but to say Canada ++ is what most voters want is a stretch as there is nearly half wanting to remain and the rest are confused over terms and effects
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381

    really ?

    I thought it was a bus, or a stupid electorate or the russians ...........
    I thought it was the fault of old people, or working class people, or rural people.

    It obviously could not have been the fault of people making the argument for Remain.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Danny565 said:

    Who could've predicted that hysterical kneejerk criticism of anything Corbyn says or does would backfire.... I mean it's not like we saw the same thing happen in last year's election
    I blame megaphone man!!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Why Italy's U-turn on mandatory vaccination shocks the scientific community"
    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/07/health/italy-anti-vaccine-law-measles-intl/index.html
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381
    Danny565 said:

    Who could've predicted that hysterical kneejerk criticism of anything Corbyn says or does would backfire.... I mean it's not like we saw the same thing happen in last year's election
    Labour has generally been drifting downwards since the start of the year.
  • If you had any roots in a place like Stoke you would understand the reasons were nothing to do with Turks. At the time, John Harris captured what I heard from people I know from childhood who still live there. It was perfectly summed on camera by an Asian chap, it's a shit hole, it's been a shit hole all my life, what has the EU done to make it better, sod the lot of them.
    Leaving the EU point aside, my instinctive reaction to: "it's a shit hole, it's been a shit hole all my life" is: "Well, what have you done to try to change it?"
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sean_F said:

    Labour has generally been drifting downwards since the start of the year.
    I'm not sure that's true -- they had a brief spike after the last election, then dipped towards the end of last year, but since then they've been fairly constant.

    What is true is that Corbyn's personal ratings have taken a big drop this year, but it remains to be seen whether that's permanent and/or if it impacts on Labour's standing.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    Yes, but we need to all fall in behind some form of practical Brexit that lets us move on, for now, or we risk the whole thing being immediately reversed as soon as there’s a change in Government.

    I don’t want to end up in the euro in less than 10 years.
    I suspect thats optimistic. We will end up with a deal and then move on. Most people wont like it but will live with it.

    Once done I can see no real appetite from the elctorate to bang on about Europe for quite some time. In any event a period of reflection will be needed by all UK parties to work out what they do next. That can only happen when the heat dies down and were not negotiating everything on the airwaves.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    edited September 2018

    Should set off a new round of attacks by the Labour right wingers
    You're obsessed with Labour right wingers*. You should learn to love us. You like our votes.

    *Note that to many Corbynites, Tony Benn and anyone to the right of him is considered a Blairite. We're all right wingers now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,160
    edited September 2018

    Leaving the EU point aside, my instinctive reaction to: "it's a shit hole, it's been a shit hole all my life" is: "Well, what have you done to try to change it?"
    I am not saying his opinion is valid. I bet if you look the EU probably have funded projects there.

    But it is the same reason for rust belt going for trump and the rise of 5* in Italy. Globalization hasn't done anything for these communities and they only see things getting worse for them. All the arguments that leaving EU will make it worse falls on deaf ears.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    3h3 hours ago
    Sweden, Yougov poll:
    SD-ECR: 25% (+1)
    S-S&D: 24% (+2)
    M-EPP: 17% (+1)
    V-LEFT: 9%
    C-ALDE: 6% (-2)
    L-ALDE: 6%
    KD-EPP: 5% (+1)
    MP-G/EFA: 4% (-1)
    Fi-S&D: 1 % (-1)
    Field work: 30/08/18 – 01/09/18
    Sample size: 1,511
    Election date: 09/09/2018"
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    HYUFD said:

    Major, Blair, Brown and Cameron were not Eurosceptics (though Brown and Cameron were anti Euro) and the Nice and Lisbon Treaties were not Eurosceptic acts either
    Corbyn is Shhhush
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    Although before LTV weightings are applied, Remain is ahead.

    Somehow they manage to have a Northern Ireland figure of 55% support for Brexit which is not credible.

    https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-Tables-1.pdf

    The poll also shows that 55% of Conservative voters think Brexit will be good for the economy.
    Most Northern Ireland Protestants voted Leave
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Jonathan said:

    You're obsessed with Labour right wingers*. You should learn to love us. You like our votes.

    *Note that to many Corbynites, Tony Benn and anyone to the right of him is considered a Blairite. We're all right wingers now.
    Let's work together for a Labour Government.

    Glad your not obsessed by Corbyn
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    I really do accept you are good on detail but to say Canada ++ is what most voters want is a stretch as there is nearly half wanting to remain and the rest are confused over terms and effects
    Voters want a trade deal with the EU that ends free movement and regains some sovereignty, Canada does that best, everything else for them is largely just noise
  • I don’t want to end up in the euro in less than 10 years.

    If I can use the cliché, you're at the bargaining phase if you're talking in terms of timescales.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    edited September 2018

    Let's work together for a Labour Government.

    Glad your not obsessed by Corbyn
    Do bear in mind that every time someone says Blairite as a term of abuse or criticises Labour 97-10 I think of all the work I put in and think "sod off - do it yourself if you're so great"

    It's time for the Corbynites to love or at least show a bit of respect the Blairites. You're in the leadership role now, you need to show some.
  • Why not read it?
    Because it is the basis of negotiation and I need to have time to post occassionally on here. I will read details of the deal TM brings back but I do not, and never have, thought Chequers would be anything other than just a negotiating document
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,320
    Jonathan said:

    Do bear in mind that every time someone says Blairite as a term of abuse or criticises Labour 97-10 I think of all the work I put in and think "sod off - do it yourself if you're so great"

    It's time for the Corbynites to love and respect the Blairites. You're in the leadership role now, you need to show some.
    Good post Jonathan. To much hypocrisy from all directions at the moment.
  • I suspect thats optimistic. We will end up with a deal and then move on. Most people wont like it but will live with it.

    Once done I can see no real appetite from the elctorate to bang on about Europe for quite some time. In any event a period of reflection will be needed by all UK parties to work out what they do next. That can only happen hen the heat dies down and were not negotiating everything on the airwaves.
    But if everyone hates it then that might make the “old” EU membership look attractive by comparison and a create a political appetite to pursue it, even if that is still disliked by a large minority.

    The floating voter in British politics mustn’t conclude that Leavers will rail against the UK’s relationship with the EU regardless. If they do, they risk concluding that they may as well stay in with that railing going on, rather than outside with everyone railing against it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    I am at ground 313 tonight AFC Moseley. Strange old ground. Slopy is not the phrase it's incredible.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    edited September 2018
    Jonathan said:

    Do bear in mind that every time someone says Blairite as a term of abuse or criticises Labour 97-10 I think of all the work I put in and think "sod off - do it yourself if you're so great"

    It's time for the Corbynites to love and respect the Blairites. You're in the leadership role now, you need to show some.
    Mr J Im not a Blair fan as you can probably guess, However the most reflective moment Ive had on Brexit was Blair on the Parliamentary channel.. I didnt agree with all he said but certainly he knew how to make a point.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381

    Although before LTV weightings are applied, Remain is ahead.

    Somehow they manage to have a Northern Ireland figure of 55% support for Brexit which is not credible.

    https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-Tables-1.pdf

    The poll also shows that 55% of Conservative voters think Brexit will be good for the economy.
    Given the tiny sample size for Northern Ireland, there's no reason why the odd poll wouldn't put Leave ahead.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Jonathan said:

    Do bear in mind that every time someone says Blairite as a term of abuse or criticises Labour 97-10 I think of all the work I put in and think "sod off - do it yourself if you're so great"

    It's time for the Corbynites to love or at least show a bit of respect the Blairites. You're in the leadership role now, you need to show some.
    I respect anyone who wants a Labour Government and is prepared to work along side me to get one.

    I hope that includes you. We know it doesn't include Woodcock and would doubt if it includes serial Corbyn haters in the PLP.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Something tells me the Tories still haven't got the hang of this "targeting" lark.

    PB is currently showing me (a Remain-voting Corbyn-supporting Labour member) an advert for "The Blue Wave", complete with links to the Tories' membership page and Leave.EU
  • I was in Llandudno a few weeks back and I did toy with the idea of posting something here, but you were not about and I figured you might have been away on one of your cruises or some such :)
    Wish you had and hope you enjoyed the Queen of Welsh resorts.

    Came back from last cruise in early June and next one is to Canada and the US ex Southampton in Sept 19 so keeping away from Europe just in case the ports are blockaded
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183

    But if everyone hates it then that might make the “old” EU membership look attractive by comparison and a create a political appetite to pursue it, even if that is still disliked by a large minority.

    The floating voter in British politics mustn’t conclude that Leavers will rail against the UK’s relationship with the EU regardless. If they do, they risk concluding that they may as well stay in with that railing going on, rather than outside with everyone railing against it.
    I wonder if you’re overthinking this.

    Brexit barely breaks the consciousness of the floating voter. We need to get a deal, and then move on.

    But Chequers has been rejected by everyone. Time to move on to a deal that someone can sell.

    Btw, I’ve been similarly staggered at how poorly the Govt have communicated the Chequers plan. May and Hammond have a similar approach; neither seem willing to talk up their main job of work!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,546
    edited September 2018
    Sean_F said:

    Given the tiny sample size for Northern Ireland, there's no reason why the odd poll wouldn't put Leave ahead.
    They also have a big majority of 2017 SNP voters as being Brexit supporters so they have a knack for finding Brexiteers in unlikely places.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    But if everyone hates it then that might make the “old” EU membership look attractive by comparison and a create a political appetite to pursue it, even if that is still disliked by a large minority.

    The floating voter in British politics mustn’t conclude that Leavers will rail against the UK’s relationship with the EU regardless. If they do, they risk concluding that they may as well stay in with that railing going on, rather than outside with everyone railing against it.
    Neither Leave or Remain can control their ranters, Theyre a given in my view.I simply take the view that voters have had enough for a generation and wont want to revisit it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381
    Danny565 said:

    I'm not sure that's true -- they had a brief spike after the last election, then dipped towards the end of last year, but since then they've been fairly constant.

    What is true is that Corbyn's personal ratings have taken a big drop this year, but it remains to be seen whether that's permanent and/or if it impacts on Labour's standing.
    It's not huge, but Labour were averaging about 41% at the start of the year, compared to about 38% now.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    edited September 2018
    Danny565 said:

    Something tells me the Tories still haven't got the hang of this "targeting" lark.

    PB is currently showing me (a Remain-voting Corbyn-supporting Labour member) an advert for "The Blue Wave", complete with links to the Tories' membership page and Leave.EU

    That’s not a Tory ad.

    And non product page web page targeting is way behind social media targeting. Worth reading Chaos Monkeys for a background.
  • alex. said:

    Not sure anybody has put forward the "Llandudno" option. What will it involve?
    Well in this residents view BINO in some form or a second referendum ( not peoples vote which is a dishonest misleading name)
  • They also have a big majority of 2017 SNP voters as being Brexit supporters so they have a knack for finding Brexiteers in unlikely places.
    Why bother scrutinising polls that show support for things you disagree with? They are always 100% nonsense
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,983
    SeanT said:

    Leave voters might not be attuned to every detail of Chequers, but they take their cue from people who DO understand it, principally David Davis and Boris Johnson, who debated and agreed the damn thing, and are quite clued up about Brexit, given that they have been trying (and failing) to negotiate it.

    Bojo and Davis dislike Chequers so much they have resigned, so Leave voters have concluded that if the experts say it is shite, then it must be shite. That is a fair and rational conclusion.

    It was Michael Gove who said "...I think that the people of this country have had enough of experts from organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong, because these people are the same ones who got consistently wrong...".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381
    edited September 2018

    They also have a big majority of 2017 SNP voters as being Brexit supporters so they have a knack for finding Brexiteers in unlikely places.
    Nothing odd with tiny numbers. 23 SNP supporters, and 18 people from Northern Ireland were surveyed
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    I respect anyone who wants a Labour Government and is prepared to work along side me to get one.

    I hope that includes you. We know it doesn't include Woodcock and would doubt if it includes serial Corbyn haters in the PLP.
    Surely you can muster an inkling of respect for the fact that through an enormous amount of hard work and by listening to the electorate, we managed to end 18yrs of Tory rule and secure the biggest Labour vote ever.

    It didn't happen by accident and many people benefited as a result.

    Can you bring yourself to accept and respect that?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    So we have the moderates and the extremists in the Labour party both unhappy with this decision.

    Is that a point on Chequers or anti-Semitism?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,098
    edited September 2018
    glw said:

    The Washington Post has excerpts from Bob Woodward's book about Trump. It makes our little difficulties look like very small beer.

    Not really, Trump will be gone in 6 years at the most. Our relationship with the EU won't be settled at that point.. In addition the US economy is going well as they've basically got pretty much all the 1T+ (Except a few natural private resource ones) $ + companies in the world. The greenback is still the world's reserve currency too.

    Trump will be gone in 2024, we still won't have sorted our free trade deals/3rd, 4th, 5th referendum/dealing with consequences of a hard Brexit/humiliating U-turn.. and we'll possibly have Corbyn or McDonnell too.

    The lasting impact of Trump (By 2024) will be in the makeup of SCOTUS but that could have come about as a result of Pence, Rubio, Cruz or any other GOP president.
  • The referendum was won by scaring people into believing that hordes of Turks were about to come to Britain.
    The thing is Alastair a second referendum (not peoples vote please) may not win over a Canada/ Norway deal

    Despite labour's woes Brexit is the 100% topic and there is a move to UKIP damaging the conservatives. It could be re-awakening the leave vote and we will need to see the trend over the Autumn
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    SeanT said:

    LOL. Not good evidence for my "Jew-baiting Labour is losing votes" theory

    Tho the shifts are weird - LDs to UKIP?
    More LDs to Labour and Tory to UKIP (counteracted by some LDs also moving to the Tories)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,983
    HYUFD said:

    Survation has Labour ahead and UKIP overtake the LDs

    Lab 41
    Con 37
    UKIP 7
    LD 6

    https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1037032301098610688

    I will never for the life of me get over the fact that there are so many people who jump straight from UKIP to LD and vice-versa.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,320

    Should set off a new round of attacks by the Labour right wingers
    I think they made a big mistake in doing a volte face on the IHRA definition of antisemitism. They had a good case. Now they've capitulated the stories will not stop nor will the inquisitions. They have just pleaded guilty to being a racist party and most people wont want to belong to one of those.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381
    viewcode said:

    It was Michael Gove who said "...I think that the people of this country have had enough of experts from organisations with acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong, because these people are the same ones who got consistently wrong...".
    The better point to make is that experts are as partisan as the next man.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    alex. said:

    If people say they prefer "Canada", by and large they are just saying they like the idea of living in Canada. Drink is a bit expensive in Norway and it's a bit too cold. How does "Switzerland" do?

    Good skiing but expensive and boring

    Canada is like the US without Trump. And that nice young PM wossiname
  • Although before LTV weightings are applied, Remain is ahead.

    Somehow they manage to have a Northern Ireland figure of 55% support for Brexit which is not credible.

    https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-Tables-1.pdf

    The poll also shows that 55% of Conservative voters think Brexit will be good for the economy.
    Not like you to question a poll you do not like
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,983

    Came back from last cruise in early June and next one is to Canada and the US ex Southampton in Sept 19 so keeping away from Europe just in case the ports are blockaded

    Unless Sunil's EU-boot is actually true, I think even in the worst-case scenario they will still be letting cruise ships thru... :)

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,966
    Chris Williamson?

    Hahahahahahahahaha

    I honestly thought that from Corbyn the only way was up. Apparently not.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Jonathan said:

    Surely you can muster an inkling of respect for the fact that through an enormous amount of hard work and by listening to the electorate, we managed to end 18yrs of Tory rule and secure the biggest Labour vote ever.

    It didn't happen by accident and many people benefited as a result.

    Can you bring yourself to accept and respect that?
    Course I can.I was working my ass off alongside you in 1997 and right up until Iraq. Labour was fantastic for Public Services that were on their knees under the Tories. Minimum wage was a great achievement

    Why do you think I didn't like and respect New Labour. Iraq was super important to me though.

    Now is the time to unite to get another Labour Government that can achieve great things.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    It does look terminal for Theresa.
    It’s in The Telegraph aka the Daily Borisgraph. That it’s true is a bold assumption given that (alleged) newspaper doesn’t really have a close relationship with reality.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Neither Leave or Remain can control their ranters, Theyre a given in my view.I simply take the view that voters have had enough for a generation and wont want to revisit it.
    I do as well, also I believe that the economy will reconfigure, which may cause some slowing in growth, but after about 18 months will start growing again and be creating jobs and pay rises and people will think "well what was the point of being in the EU then."
  • Very very few people get the opportunity to vote for what they want. For a candidate who is perfect. For a party offering a flawless manifesto. For a leader who inspires and becalms. Its all shades of grey. So regardless of the wazzocks surrounding Jeremy Corbyn people wanting a Labour government will still vote Labour. Because the alternative is a Tory government.

    Fed up trapped in insecure tenancies with dodgy landlords. Should they vote Tory because Jeremy Corbyn?
    Working all the hours God sends and still barely able to pay bills. Should they vote Tory because Jeremy Corbyn?
    The decimation of local government, the cuts to the NHS and Adult Social Care, driving the disabled to die in abject poverty - do none of these count because of anti-semitism?

    Of will most voters continue to do as they do - vote on the issues that affect them. And not vote to make themselves continue to suffer just because a Tory tells them they are immoral.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    DavidL said:

    Chris Williamson?

    Hahahahahahahahaha

    I honestly thought that from Corbyn the only way was up. Apparently not.

    I am going to listen to his road show tomorrow night. He is a bit left wing for me TBH
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Cannot remember a game with so many chances as this being 0-0
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Jonathan said:



    Surely you can muster an inkling of respect for the fact that through an enormous amount of hard work and by listening to the electorate, we managed to end 18yrs of Tory rule and secure the biggest Labour vote ever.

    It didn't happen by accident and many people benefited as a result.

    Can you bring yourself to accept and respect that?

    I find it odd that people who style themselves as "modernisers" seem unable to comprehend that the world might have changed since the 1990s.

    Had I been old enough to get a vote in the early 90s, I'm pretty sure I would've voted for Blair to be leader. I was broadly supportive of him while he was PM. Although he's gone loopy in retirement, I still think he was a master politician in his heyday, and I even just finished reading his autobiography in full. But his political philosophy isn't close to being what's needed these days, either in policy terms (his "triangulation" of big government spending and redistribution, without hitting the rich or big businesses, was only possible because of the mega revenues from the banks, which are never going to come back) or in strategic terms (as was shown by Miliband and Balls in 2015, who tried to follow the 1997 playbook and ended up getting one of the worst ever results in Labour history).

    As much as you bitch about "the Left" and "Corbynistas", they are the only ones who have put forward any kind of new economic programme; the so-called "moderates" just give us either meaningless platitudes, or a 1990s rehash. Unless that changes, I don't see why the "moderates" should be paid any respect, because there's nothing of substance to pay respect to.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    I do as well, also I believe that the economy will reconfigure, which may cause some slowing in growth, but after about 18 months will start growing again and be creating jobs and pay rises and people will think "well what was the point of being in the EU then."
    yes.

    I also think if we had a half way imaginative government we could make real prgress on a more balanced economy
  • HYUFD said:

    Voters want a trade deal with the EU that ends free movement and regains some sovereignty, Canada does that best, everything else for them is largely just noise
    Is one problem with a Canada type deal that Canada is not geographically in Europe? Does all trade, commerce, business occur purely independent from geography? Or is there something fundamental fusing commerce and geography that has been there since the word dot, that is not of but in spite of the hideous EU superstate that came along and we took dislike to?
  • If I can use the cliché, you're at the bargaining phase if you're talking in terms of timescales.
    You can use whatever you like: I discount everything you say on Brexit as you’re a fanatic.

    You start from your conclusion - which is always ultra-Remain - and then work back from that to find a path that explains how today’s events will inevitably end up there, on whichever day “today” happens to be and regardless of what the events are.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Course I can.I was working my ass off alongside you in 1997 and right up until Iraq. Labour was fantastic for Public Services that were on their knees under the Tories. Minimum wage was a great achievement

    Why do you think I didn't like and respect New Labour. Iraq was super important to me though.

    Now is the time to unite to get another Labour Government that can achieve great things.
    Well next time you're about to pull the trigger and slag off a Blairite for the 1000th time or say stuff about New Labour losing votes over 13 years (as if that would not be a thing in any govt) - realise that you're pushing people like me away.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn should be seeking to strengthen the Labour coalition, but for the life of me he doesn't seem to want to do it. MacDonnell gives it a go sometimes, but Corbyn not so much. it's odd, because it would be so easy.

    There should be something in a future Labour govt for the whole party, not just whatever clique happens to be in charge at any given moment.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    edited September 2018
    Mortimer said:

    I wonder if you’re overthinking this.

    Brexit barely breaks the consciousness of the floating voter. We need to get a deal, and then move on.

    But Chequers has been rejected by everyone. Time to move on to a deal
    Btw, I’ve been similarly staggered at how poorly the Govt have communicated the Chequers plan. May and Hammond have a similar approach; neither seem willing to talk up their main job of work!
    I haven’t rejected Chequers. I have read it, and seem to be one of the very few that has.

    I’d encourage you and everyone else to do the same. I thought it was the right strategic balance, for now, for the UK and is actually quite a hard Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    edited September 2018
    viewcode said:

    I will never for the life of me get over the fact that there are so many people who jump straight from UKIP to LD and vice-versa.

    Full figures have 8% of 2017 Tory voters now saying they would vote UKIP, 10% of 2017 LD voters saying they would vote UKIP (the former though is about 4% and the latter just over 0.7%).


    5% of 2017 Tories have switched to Labour and 6% of 2017 LDs have switched to the Tories, so the biggest movement remains Tory to UKIP in raw numbers UK wide

    https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-Tables-1.pdf (P7)


  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    It would have been as representative of the vox pop to quote “we had a vote, let’s leave it there. Let’s get on with it. We voted to get out altogether”
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183

    I haven’t rejected Chequers. I have read it, and seem to be one of the very few that has.

    I’d encourage you and everyone else to do the same. I thought it was the right strategic balance, for now, for the UK and is actually quite a hard Brexit.
    I’ve read it. At the time it was published I suggested that it would be just about the bounds of acceptability, but that I didn’t see the EU accepting it.

    They haven’t. And May isn’t going to be able to sell it to the British people either. Time to move on to something else.
  • Neither Leave or Remain can control their ranters, Theyre a given in my view.I simply take the view that voters have had enough for a generation and wont want to revisit it.
    But that can’t be taken for granted.

    My view is softly softly catchy monkey, and a progressive Brexit must be sold and advocated strongly.

    In time, it will then make its own case as it becomes the established status quo but we need to get there first and in a stable and non-disruptive manner.
  • Jonathan said:

    Well next time you're about to pull the trigger and slag off a Blairite for the 1000th time or say stuff about New Labour losing votes over 13 years (as if that would not be a thing in any govt) - realise that you're pushing people like me away.

    Meanwhile, Corbyn should be seeking to strengthen the Labour coalition, but for the life of me he doesn't seem to want to do it. MacDonnell gives it a go sometimes, but Corbyn not so much. it's odd, because it would be so easy.

    There should be something in a future Labour govt for the whole party, not just whatever clique happens to be in charge at any given moment.

    Although I agree that Corbyn should be doing as you say, I could understand why his supporters would be reluctant to do so. Blair made a virtue out of campaigning against his own supporters. The comments about scars on his back were not exactly going out of his way to build a coalition with his natural supporters.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Danny565 said:

    I find it odd that people who style themselves as "modernisers" seem unable to comprehend that the world might have changed since the 1990s.

    Had I been old enough to get a vote in the early 90s, I'm pretty sure I would've voted for Blair to be leader. I was broadly supportive of him while he was PM. Although he's gone loopy in retirement, I still think he was a master politician in his heyday, and I even just finished reading his autobiography in full. But his political philosophy isn't close to being what's needed these days, either in policy terms (his "triangulation" of big government spending and redistribution, without hitting the rich or big businesses, was only possible because of the mega revenues from the banks, which are never going to come back) or in strategic terms (as was shown by Miliband and Balls in 2015, who tried to follow the 1997 playbook and ended up getting one of the worst ever results in Labour history).

    As much as you bitch about "the Left" and "Corbynistas", they are the only ones who have put forward any kind of new economic programme; the so-called "moderates" just give us either meaningless platitudes, or a 1990s rehash. Unless that changes, I don't see why the "moderates" should be paid any respect, because there's nothing of substance to pay respect to.
    From my point of view, neither Corbyn nor the Labour Right have offered a single interesting new idea. It's all a rehash of stuff from the past, and that includes popular stuff like railway nationalisation. It's one of the most disappointing aspects of Corbynism.

    Blairs ideas might be old today and not all of them worked, but at least he tried something new and future looking at the time. We need to recapture that spirit.



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    Is one problem with a Canada type deal that Canada is not geographically in Europe? Does all trade, commerce, business occur purely independent from geography? Or is there something fundamental fusing commerce and geography that has been there since the word dot, that is not of but in spite of the hideous EU superstate that came along and we took dislike to?
    We want to trade with our closest geographic neighbours, just not lose all our sovereignty to them
This discussion has been closed.