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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May v Corbyn: Who’ll go first?

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited September 2018
    Scott_P said:
    If criminal charges are laid against those close to Corbyn or even Corbyn himself, that could be a game changer
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    edited September 2018
    Mr. Pubgoer, maybe. Or it might be like the Stargate: SG-1 episode where O'Neill and Teal'c can do whatever they like because they're trapped in a time loop.

    Edited extra bit: I'm aware that's essentially the same plot. But it's a very good episode.
  • TOPPING said:



    Yeah sod the Jews. You will give them up for the greater good of nationalising Virgin Trains.

    You can't make an omelette, etc.

    Tories don't even try and excuse dog whistle racism - its policy. Are you thinking what we're thinking. Immigration vans, Boris. Its a Labour government or a Tory government. And like the Iraq war both sides are bad, neutralising it as an issue.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The party of "kinder, gentler politics" (sic) has barricades outside their office today to protect against protests by their own supporters...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Mr. L, I agree with almost all of that.

    However, I do think certain fundamental changes require a clear democratic mandate (changing the voting system would be another).

    Does make one wonder how a theoretical second referendum would end up going.

    Any theoretical second referendum (on the same question as the first) is going to make the first one seem like everyone has been discussing whether kittens or puppies are more cute and fluffy for the past 30 months.

    Among those who would be running the campaigns, precisely no-one has changed their minds and the positions have become more and more entrenched since the first referendum. Sadly there would be a reasonable chance of serious civil unrest.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018


    Scott_P said:
    If criminal charges are laid against those close to Corbyn or even Corbyn himself, that could be a game changer
    Don't be silly...it will just put down to the deep state / establishment trying to smear and damage the messiah. The cult try and excuse everything, its like Trumpians. All we are missing now is our own version of Q.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Roger said:

    Confident advertising by Nike. Lose some American conservative customers v loads of publicity. In advertising that's a no contest....


    https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/03/news/companies/colin-kaepernick-nike-just-do-it/index.html

    or it could end up lose customers with money for popularity with people who havent, its one where they need to have done their sums right
    I wouldn't normally have done this (as Lucille Ball famously said 'Leave the messages to Western Union'), but in this case, given Trump's base, they are probably on relatively safe ground:

    They [Trump supporters] are primarily white, older men with low levels of education and income.

    https://www.thoughtco.com/meet-the-people-behind-donald-trumps-popularity-4068073

    Hence Hilary Clinton's crass condescension. When it comes to voting, they matter. Buying expensive trainers, probably not so much.
    well Ive not much experience of sports gear\trainers but I suspect a lot of it is worn by fans rather than players so its about the fan base. If my sports playing son is anything to go by, he spends nothing on trainers, the money comes from me - baiting old white men isnt always that good an idea :-)

    This is the ground they all tramp on

    https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hub/304927/file-2395712248-pdf/Reports/NFL_Fans_Audience_Report_Q1_2015.pdf?submissionGuid=e7c143b7-d707-41eb-b9ca-24d2264b2766

    as ever its the marketing segmentation issue do you gain more from new customers than the ones you dropped ? Its a numbers game complicated by Kaepernick suing their client the NFL.
  • Mr. Sandpit, my guess would be a second vote would be on leaving with May's Horrendous Deal or Remain. If that's the case, Remain would have a great shot of winning, more through the dismay (ahem) of previous Leave voters who can't bring themselves to back departing in name only.

    Of course, such a vote still needs to be called via Parliament, and with the agreement of the EU.
  • Scott_P said:
    Labour really do not see that the Palestinian cause, right or wrong, really does not figure in peoples worries in the UK, but are in an internal war to the death over it.

    What a sad end to a once great party that even attracted my vote under Blair
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited September 2018

    Mr. Sandpit, my guess would be a second vote would be on leaving with May's Horrendous Deal or Remain. If that's the case, Remain would have a great shot of winning, more through the dismay (ahem) of previous Leave voters who can't bring themselves to back departing in name only.

    Of course, such a vote still needs to be called via Parliament, and with the agreement of the EU.

    I have little doubt that a second referendum (lets call it what it is) would win decisively but I do not know how it comes about following TM 100% ruling it out, short of her being replaced by a remainer which is unlikely but in today's politics not impossible
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Labour really do not see that the Palestinian cause, right or wrong, really does not figure in peoples worries in the UK, but are in an internal war to the death over it.

    What a sad end to a once great party that even attracted my vote under Blair

    The Tories did the same with Europe...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I think the referendum showed fundamental weaknesses in the concept. Firstly, the campaigns were run by groupings who did not "own" the result in any particular way, not least because they did not have the power to implement it since they were not the government. This made them reckless in a way that they might not have been had they had to deal with the consequences.

    This was discussed with reference to Ireland.

    Referendums can be a good idea if

    1. The Government of the day has a concrete plan for something they want to change
    2. They require public consent

    In those circumstances it can work well
    Yes, that's a fair point because people then know exactly what the government is going to do if it get's permission.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    edited September 2018

    TOPPING said:



    Yeah sod the Jews. You will give them up for the greater good of nationalising Virgin Trains.

    You can't make an omelette, etc.

    Tories don't even try and excuse dog whistle racism - its policy. Are you thinking what we're thinking. Immigration vans, Boris. Its a Labour government or a Tory government. And like the Iraq war both sides are bad, neutralising it as an issue.
    Since when has Boris been a "policy"? He's a backbencher.

    A slogan from 2005. (I'll see your "Are you thinking..." and raise you an anti-semitic dog-whistle "Flying pigs" poster.)

    An immigration van that was introduced in 2013.

    Give me something more current. You can't? Surprise surprise. The idea of how the evil baby-eating Tories have behaved in the past is how they behave today is your blue blanket, your thumb to suck when the Labour world you have invested in is collapsing around your ears. Today.

    2018. No Michael Howard. No immigration vans. No Boris in Government. Oh yes - and Labour a safe-space for anti-semites. That is the world we have now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Scott_P said:
    Labour really do not see that the Palestinian cause, right or wrong, really does not figure in peoples worries in the UK, but are in an internal war to the death over it.

    What a sad end to a once great party that even attracted my vote under Blair
    Attracted my vote too. Very sad to see what a great party has become under Corbyn, and even worse too see the many good men and women of the party stand by and do nothing - with the notable and honourable exceptions of Frank Field and John Woodcock.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018

    Scott_P said:
    Labour really do not see that the Palestinian cause, right or wrong, really does not figure in peoples worries in the UK, but are in an internal war to the death over it.

    What a sad end to a once great party that even attracted my vote under Blair
    It is also really not that hard to strongly criticize particular actions of Israel without verging into antisemitic territory. Tip...don't compare them to Nazi's, bang on about Jew Illuminati running the world etc.
  • Anyone up on military stuff? This looks iffy:
    https://twitter.com/VeteransBritain/status/1036529435674112002
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:



    Yeah sod the Jews. You will give them up for the greater good of nationalising Virgin Trains.

    You can't make an omelette, etc.

    Tories don't even try and excuse dog whistle racism - its policy. Are you thinking what we're thinking. Immigration vans, Boris. Its a Labour government or a Tory government. And like the Iraq war both sides are bad, neutralising it as an issue.
    Don't forget the coffee mug. Effing Tories.

    I bet if I were to look at the vans in detail btw I would find a precedent if not origin under Labour. Just like the hostile environment when some turnip on here was trying to say that the Tories were much worse because they presided over five deporations vs Labour's three.

    Comparing Jezza's racism to the Cons is comparing chalk and apples. But don't ask me about it, ask Gordon or Margaret or...or...or. I mean Tories all they may be but they should know, surely.
  • Scott_P said:
    Labour really do not see that the Palestinian cause, right or wrong, really does not figure in peoples worries in the UK, but are in an internal war to the death over it.

    What a sad end to a once great party that even attracted my vote under Blair
    It is also really not that hard to strongly criticize particular actions of Israel without verging into antisemitic territory. Tip...don't compare them to Nazi's, bang on about Jew Illuminati running the world etc.
    When I visited Israel some years ago I was very critical of the settlements
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    The thing is with Corbyn, what he has personally said and done isn't really the issue. It what his "supporters" say and do. Corbyn's message is carefully honed and refined over the years. His 2013 comments about Irony are suggestive of anti-semitism without explicitly being so. Kali Ma cultists have no similar skills, not only do they say things overtly anti-semitic they do so in the fervour of worship, needing to be Harder and Louder and Angrier against His enemies.

    I have read things on Facebook by members of the Labour Party which are truly disgusting. I then reported Aaron Bastani. I've considered reporting others. But whats the point? Christine Shawcroft was appointed chair of the disputes panel and covered up/ignored evidence against a member which forced her resignation screaming abuse about purges. Willsman on the panel apparently didn't see any anti-semitism. All things have to go through the Corbyn filter where "enemies" of Corbyn (like Jon Lansman...!) are liars who can be ignored.

    Until we get another "enough is enough" scandal. Where the politicians at the top table tell Corbyn he has to do something. And then we have more "not in my name" statements but not actual action. None of this is permanent and irreversible though. They worship Him and only Him. They have no interest in policy other than what He wants. Why would they stick around after He steps down? Its not like they have any interest in being in government and all the nuances and compromises that entails.

    Labour under the spell of wazzocks. Tories "led" by a zombie trading insults with a buffoon whilst the membership get infiltrated by UKIP crazies. Good times...

    What did Bastani say?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    DavidL said:

    Mr. L, should've been part of the campaign. But both sides decided that being realistic was unfashionable and preferred complacency and exaggerations instead.

    It remains shocking just how poor the campaigns were.

    Mr. Mortimer, religious types often hate heretics more than heathens. As the Eastern Romans once said: better the Sultan's turban than the cardinal's hat.

    I think the referendum showed fundamental weaknesses in the concept. Firstly, the campaigns were run by groupings who did not "own" the result in any particular way, not least because they did not have the power to implement it since they were not the government. This made them reckless in a way that they might not have been had they had to deal with the consequences.

    Secondly, we inevitably ended up with a multiplicity of campaigns saying different things and emphasising contradictory points. The result is that both sides held contradictory positions within their ranks. The inconsistencies of leave voters are only more apparent because they won.

    Thirdly, we inevitably have great frustration on both sides with the result. Leavers think that they won but May is bargaining everything they wanted in a BINO. Remainers think that their views are not being listened to. May is in the middle trying to find a path acceptable to both sides.

    Something similar in Scotland happened with Better Together, another cross party grouping with no agreed position on what the role of Scotland was to be in the UK going forward. Their victory inevitably led to Indy supporters claiming that that victory had been won on false promises not delivered (eg "the vow"). But Better Together was not the government and had no power to promise anything.

    The only rational conclusion is that this is a damn silly way to do things. I hope we don't see any more referenda for quite a while.
    Referenda are fine. Voters just need to take responsibility for the consequences of their vote
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    2018. No Michael Howard. No immigration vans. No Boris in Government. Oh yes - and Labour a safe-space for anti-semites. That is the world we have now.

    The entire Brexit project, which the tories are pursuing to the point of self-immolation, is a nativist and xenophobic construct. It's a moral blight than many orders of magnitude worse than JC's jew baiting mumbling as its based in praxis.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Dura_Ace said:



    2018. No Michael Howard. No immigration vans. No Boris in Government. Oh yes - and Labour a safe-space for anti-semites. That is the world we have now.

    The entire Brexit project, which the tories are pursuing to the point of self-immolation, is a nativist and xenophobic construct. It's a moral blight than many orders of magnitude worse than JC's jew baiting mumbling as its based in praxis.
    Also sprach Kapitan Pugwash
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Dura_Ace said:



    2018. No Michael Howard. No immigration vans. No Boris in Government. Oh yes - and Labour a safe-space for anti-semites. That is the world we have now.

    The entire Brexit project, which the tories are pursuing to the point of self-immolation, is a nativist and xenophobic construct. It's a moral blight than many orders of magnitude worse than JC's jew baiting mumbling as its based in praxis.
    That may be so. And if only Tories had voted for it then you might have a better point. But plenty of Labour supporters voted for it. Indeed, YOUKNOWWHO is said to be a very enthusiastic Brexiter.
  • Labour have 550,000 members so on a 60-40 split in favour of Corbyn equates to 330,000 - 220,000 so it only requires just over 100,000 anti Corbyn supporters to join to switch the balance.

    Surely all MP's and their constituencies could attract this many in this existential crisis, even more, to regain control of their party. It would take time but it must be feasible
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Anyone up on military stuff? This looks iffy:
    https://twitter.com/VeteransBritain/status/1036529435674112002

    It's the deployment of EUFOR multinational battalion (Austria, Bulgaria, Italy, Romania and the UK) for an exercise. The EU have taken over from NATO in Bosnia with EUFOR replacing IFOR and SFOR. The patch is appropriate as it's an EU operation.
  • Scott_P said:
    I get no pleasure from seeing this at all. Just despair
  • Mr. Ace, cheers for that answer, though my follow-up questions would be regarding why the hell the EU should be taking over from NATO and why we should be going along with that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018

    Conversely on the Nike thing..

    twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1036883733595467776

    I didn't know that...it reminds me a bit of when there was all that anti X-Factor for Christmas #1 backlash and all the yuff encouraged to buy RATM track....however the numpties didn't realise RATM label was Sony, Simon Cowell label owned by Sony....Sony for the win.
  • Scott_P said:
    If they don't get the full, exact wording on paper, and rely on a 'verbal' update, then it's a disaster in the making. It'll end up as 'he-said, she-said', 'I mispoke', etc.
  • Scott_P said:
    If they don't get the full, exact wording on paper, and rely on a 'verbal' update, then it's a disaster in the making. It'll end up as 'he-said, she-said', 'I mispoke', etc.
    I was there, but I didn't think I took part?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Mr. L, should've been part of the campaign. But both sides decided that being realistic was unfashionable and preferred complacency and exaggerations instead.

    It remains shocking just how poor the campaigns were.

    Mr. Mortimer, religious types often hate heretics more than heathens. As the Eastern Romans once said: better the Sultan's turban than the cardinal's hat.

    I think the referendum showed fundamental weaknesses in the concept. Firstly, the campaigns were run by groupings who did not "own" the result in any particular way, not least because they did not have the power to implement it since they were not the government. This made them reckless in a way that they might not have been had they had to deal with the consequences.

    Secondly, we inevitably ended up with a multiplicity of campaigns saying different things and emphasising contradictory points. The result is that both sides held contradictory positions within their ranks. The inconsistencies of leave voters are only more apparent because they won.

    Thirdly, we inevitably have great frustration on both sides with the result. Leavers think that they won but May is bargaining everything they wanted in a BINO. Remainers think that their views are not being listened to. May is in the middle trying to find a path acceptable to both sides.

    Something similar in Scotland happened with Better Together, another cross party grouping with no agreed position on what the role of Scotland was to be in the UK going forward. Their victory inevitably led to Indy supporters claiming that that victory had been won on false promises not delivered (eg "the vow"). But Better Together was not the government and had no power to promise anything.

    The only rational conclusion is that this is a damn silly way to do things. I hope we don't see any more referenda for quite a while.
    Referenda are fine. Voters just need to take responsibility for the consequences of their vote
    And how's that going for you?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    The Sun revealed that Mr Corbyn had boasted of a sharing dinner with Hamas in 2010 - despite their violence against Jews and denial of the Holocaust.

    But the veteran lefty, fighting off an antisemitism storm engulfing his party, tried to distance himself from the controversy by claiming he did not remember the meal.

    During a visit to Scotland in August he told reporters: “A takeaway dinner? I don’t remember any takeaway dinners.”

    But new footage published by The Sun today shows him declaring the meal was “very nice of them and a quite a nice gesture”.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7170106/jeremy-corbyn-exposed-dining/

    The Messiah seems to be doing a lot of his lying misrembering lark recently.
  • Mr. Urquhart, ha, reminds me of the Fortnite/PUBG angst and legal dispute (since dropped, I think). Turns out both have the same parent company.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Mr. Ace, cheers for that answer, though my follow-up questions would be regarding why the hell the EU should be taking over from NATO and why we should be going along with that.

    Because NATO has completely lost interest in Dayton and the EU has, partially, learned the lessons of the 90s and sees it has a vested interest in continuing to stabilise the region. Participation in EUFOR surrenders a lot less sovereignty than British involvement in IFOR/SFOR ever did.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018

    Mr. Urquhart, ha, reminds me of the Fortnite/PUBG angst and legal dispute (since dropped, I think). Turns out both have the same parent company.

    Yes and no in that case. Epic games is 40% owned by Tencent, where as Tencent only have a tiny percentage in Bluehole (~1-2%).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Conversely on the Nike thing..

    twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1036883733595467776

    I didn't know that...it reminds me a bit of when there was all that anti X-Factor for Christmas #1 backlash and all the yuff encouraged to buy RATM track....however the numpties didn't realise RATM label was Sony, Simon Cowell label owned by Sony....Sony for the win.
    Sony may have been happy either way, but Simon Cowell certainly wasn't!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Scott_P said:
    They look confused which isn't surprising. Does anyone know when insulting religious symbols is to be applauded and when it becomes a criminal offence? 'Je Suis Charlie' attracted 3.7 million marchers including Hollande Cameron (and bizarrely Netanyahu) .


  • Mr. Ace, thanks for that further explanation. I'd maintain the position that the UK submitting troops to EU authority when we're meant to be leaving not integrating further is unwise.

    Mr. Urquhart, thought the number was a bit higher (may be mistaken, or could be another company up the food chain).

    Mr. Urquhart (2), he was seated but he did not order a starter.
  • Sandpit said:

    Conversely on the Nike thing..

    twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1036883733595467776

    I didn't know that...it reminds me a bit of when there was all that anti X-Factor for Christmas #1 backlash and all the yuff encouraged to buy RATM track....however the numpties didn't realise RATM label was Sony, Simon Cowell label owned by Sony....Sony for the win.
    Sony may have been happy either way, but Simon Cowell certainly wasn't!
    I bet Simon has action in Sony...I am sure he did very nicely thank you out of it.
  • Schools go back this week. Clearly the most pressing issue facing the education of this country's children is the definition of antisemitism.

    Likewise, the NHS. Never mind underfunding or a shortage of trained staff. How do we define antisemitism?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018

    Mr. Ace, thanks for that further explanation. I'd maintain the position that the UK submitting troops to EU authority when we're meant to be leaving not integrating further is unwise.

    Mr. Urquhart, thought the number was a bit higher (may be mistaken, or could be another company up the food chain).

    Mr. Urquhart (2), he was seated but he did not order a starter.

    Even weirder in that whole story, there are a load of PuBG knock-offs, one of the best and increasing in popularity, Rings of Elysium...made by Tencent....it is pretty much an exact clone of PuBG with fewer bugs.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Latest german poll has SPD in third place nationally.

    CDU 28.5
    AfD 17
    SPD 16
    Greens 13.5
    Linke 10
    FDP 9.5
    Others 5.5

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article181411078/Insa-Trend-SPD-rutscht-in-Meinungsumfrage-hinter-AfD.html
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Mr. Ace, thanks for that further explanation. I'd maintain the position that the UK submitting troops to EU authority when we're meant to be leaving not integrating further is unwise.

    The UK still enjoys the privileges and incurs the obligations of membership until The Glorious Day.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018

    Schools go back this week. Clearly the most pressing issue facing the education of this country's children is the definition of antisemitism.

    Likewise, the NHS. Never mind underfunding or a shortage of trained staff. How do we define antisemitism?

    Have we had recent polling on most important issues? I would have thought with all the reporting of the stabbing / shooting + moped crime, that this would have risen in the public's concerns.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited September 2018

    Sandpit said:

    Conversely on the Nike thing..

    twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1036883733595467776

    I didn't know that...it reminds me a bit of when there was all that anti X-Factor for Christmas #1 backlash and all the yuff encouraged to buy RATM track....however the numpties didn't realise RATM label was Sony, Simon Cowell label owned by Sony....Sony for the win.
    Sony may have been happy either way, but Simon Cowell certainly wasn't!
    I bet Simon has action in Sony...I am sure he did very nicely thank you out of it.
    He certainly has shares in SyCo, not sure about the wider international Sony music.
    What that episode did do was seriously harm his reputation though, and listening to Radio 1 and Top of the Pops try and explain how a 20 year old song littered with F-words was Christmas number one was incredibly funny. ;)
  • Mr. Urquhart, ah, I'd not heard of that one, though I am aware (don't play such games myself) of the rise of the battle royale genre.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    Latest german poll has SPD in third place nationally.

    CDU 28.5
    AfD 17
    SPD 16
    Greens 13.5
    Linke 10
    FDP 9.5
    Others 5.5

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article181411078/Insa-Trend-SPD-rutscht-in-Meinungsumfrage-hinter-AfD.html

    It's been coming. They are following the Lib Dem precedent, albeit from a higher base.
  • Scott_P said:
    Does Britain actually have large stocks of unused portaloos or will life become very uncomfortable at festivals and building sites where they are usually deployed?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    edited September 2018
    DavidL said:

    Latest german poll has SPD in third place nationally.

    CDU 28.5
    AfD 17
    SPD 16
    Greens 13.5
    Linke 10
    FDP 9.5
    Others 5.5

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article181411078/Insa-Trend-SPD-rutscht-in-Meinungsumfrage-hinter-AfD.html

    It's been coming. They are following the Lib Dem precedent, albeit from a higher base.
    the SPD have lost a quarter of their support in the last year. Coalition appears to be strangling them, just how long will they hang in there. On current trends the Greens will over take them early next year.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Two young lady Labour activists on Sky News shouting at each other over the right to be racist. Don't they realise they're supposed to be on the same side and opposing the government?
  • Scott_P said:
    Does Britain actually have large stocks of unused portaloos or will life become very uncomfortable at festivals and building sites where they are usually deployed?
    I'd expect they're the sort of thing that there is a fair surplus of, and also something that can be produced fairly quickly (or at least some designs thereof). It's not as if they're complex, or have long-lead components.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Two young lady Labour activists on Sky News shouting at each other over the right to be racist. Don't they realise they're supposed to be on the same side and opposing the government?

    image
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    DavidL said:

    Latest german poll has SPD in third place nationally.

    CDU 28.5
    AfD 17
    SPD 16
    Greens 13.5
    Linke 10
    FDP 9.5
    Others 5.5

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article181411078/Insa-Trend-SPD-rutscht-in-Meinungsumfrage-hinter-AfD.html

    It's been coming. They are following the Lib Dem precedent, albeit from a higher base.
    Lega show how it's done in a coaltion. +15% from the election. M5S aren't exactly dieing either, but Salvini is smashing it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Mr. Urquhart, ah, I'd not heard of that one, though I am aware (don't play such games myself) of the rise of the battle royale genre.

    It's just a large scale deathmatch first person shooter. Incidentally Doom 2 has finally been fully completed.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irNoHfnLXRM
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Scott_P said:
    Does Britain actually have large stocks of unused portaloos or will life become very uncomfortable at festivals and building sites where they are usually deployed?
    A few bits of moulded plastic, with one moving part - a hand operated pump. Could easily make thousands of them per day if required.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited September 2018

    Latest german poll has SPD in third place nationally.

    CDU 28.5
    AfD 17
    SPD 16
    Greens 13.5
    Linke 10
    FDP 9.5
    Others 5.5

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article181411078/Insa-Trend-SPD-rutscht-in-Meinungsumfrage-hinter-AfD.html

    Nationalist anti immigration AfD now the main opposition to Merkel's centrist CDU on that poll
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Apparently it will get bounced when it reaches CCHQ level. Bridgen really is a dickhead.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    edited September 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Latest german poll has SPD in third place nationally.

    CDU 28.5
    AfD 17
    SPD 16
    Greens 13.5
    Linke 10
    FDP 9.5
    Others 5.5

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article181411078/Insa-Trend-SPD-rutscht-in-Meinungsumfrage-hinter-AfD.html

    Nationalist anti immigration AfD now the main opposition to Merkel's centrist CDU on that poll
    currently they are the offical opposition as CDU\SPD are in coalition. The scarier thing is that AfD plus Die Linke now gets 27 % of the vote. Germany needs Merkel to go.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:



    Yeah sod the Jews. You will give them up for the greater good of nationalising Virgin Trains.

    You can't make an omelette, etc.

    Tories don't even try and excuse dog whistle racism - its policy. Are you thinking what we're thinking. Immigration vans, Boris. Its a Labour government or a Tory government. And like the Iraq war both sides are bad, neutralising it as an issue.
    Don't forget the coffee mug. Effing Tories.

    I bet if I were to look at the vans in detail btw I would find a precedent if not origin under Labour. Just like the hostile environment when some turnip on here was trying to say that the Tories were much worse because they presided over five deporations vs Labour's three.

    Comparing Jezza's racism to the Cons is comparing chalk and apples. But don't ask me about it, ask Gordon or Margaret or...or...or. I mean Tories all they may be but they should know, surely.
    In fairness to the Corbynistas, they are repudiating the Labour government of 1997-2010 as well as the Tories.

    Most of them would oppose the principle of deporting any illegal immigrant from this country. After all, he'd be a future Labour voter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Anorak said:

    Apparently it will get bounced when it reaches CCHQ level. Bridgen really is a dickhead.
    Yep, Banks got bounced last week and he’ll get bounced again this week, alongside a few more undesirables of his acquaintance.
  • Mr. Pulpstar, aye, but still raking in the cash.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Any odds on whether labour adopt the IHRA definition of antisemitism?

    My guess is despite the obvious advantages the answer will be 'no'. At least they'll then be free to argue the case without being silenced by the fear of the McCarthyite witch hunts which have been in evidence over the last several weeks.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Roger said:

    Any odds on whether labour adopt the IHRA definition of antisemitism?

    My guess is despite the obvious advantages the answer will be 'no'. At least they'll then be free to argue the case without being silenced by the fear of the McCarthyite witch hunts which have been in evidence over the last several weeks.

    I think they will, but they will ruin it by adding a fudge on free speech and Israel which will make the whole burning mess flare up again.

    And of course whatever decision they reach will be reached without consultation of the Jewish community, because they know best.
  • Roger said:

    Any odds on whether labour adopt the IHRA definition of antisemitism?

    My guess is despite the obvious advantages the answer will be 'no'. At least they'll then be free to argue the case without being silenced by the fear of the McCarthyite witch hunts which have been in evidence over the last several weeks.

    I expect they will adopt it with 'clarifications', which will satisfy no-one.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389


    Scott_P said:
    If criminal charges are laid against those close to Corbyn or even Corbyn himself, that could be a game changer
    Repellent opinions should not be prosecuted, unless those who express them are actually advocating law-breaking.
  • https://twitter.com/earthygirl01/status/1036905570266238978

    This is one strategy from the Corbynites. Get out people who haven't voted in years. They have the people to knock on the doors, assuming the 500K members aren't mainly clicktivists.

    Will it work?

    The past says no. Or a little but only to pile up votes in Labour strongholds.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    edited September 2018
    Roger said:

    Any odds on whether labour adopt the IHRA definition of antisemitism?

    My guess is despite the obvious advantages the answer will be 'no'. At least they'll then be free to argue the case without being silenced by the fear of the McCarthyite witch hunts which have been in evidence over the last several weeks.

    My guess is that they'll fudge it: they'll adopt the whole thing, including examples, but then put in some extra wording and clauses that'll say something such as: " ... except if it the accused is someone we really like, in which case none of the above applies."

    Hence they can say they've adopted it, and keep the anti-Semities happy. Also hence, it'll be meaningless and won't quench the controversy.

    Adopting the full thing without clauses would also be a major failure and embarrassment for Corbyn, given the amount of political capital he's expended to allow anti-Semites to be anti-Semitic within his party.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2018
    Who knew the NFL was such a big thing in Iran.
    https://twitter.com/Ahmadinejad1956/status/1036685396837625856
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018

    Roger said:

    Any odds on whether labour adopt the IHRA definition of antisemitism?

    My guess is despite the obvious advantages the answer will be 'no'. At least they'll then be free to argue the case without being silenced by the fear of the McCarthyite witch hunts which have been in evidence over the last several weeks.

    My guess is that they'll fudge it: they'll adopt the whole thing, including examples, but then put in some extra wording and clauses that'll say something such as: " ... except if it the accused is someone we really like, in which case none of the above applies."

    Hence they can say they've adopted it, and keep the anti-Semities happy. Also hence, it'll be meaningless and won't quench the controversy.
    It also helps when your investigation team is one single person, who is already snowed under with cases to look at.....it means you can have a Red Ken or Keith Vaz situation where it takes years to even get to the stage of a panel discussing what to do.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. L, I agree with almost all of that.

    However, I do think certain fundamental changes require a clear democratic mandate (changing the voting system would be another).

    Does make one wonder how a theoretical second referendum would end up going.

    Any theoretical second referendum (on the same question as the first) is going to make the first one seem like everyone has been discussing whether kittens or puppies are more cute and fluffy for the past 30 months.

    Among those who would be running the campaigns, precisely no-one has changed their minds and the positions have become more and more entrenched since the first referendum. Sadly there would be a reasonable chance of serious civil unrest.
    What would one be voting on? No agreement with the EU will be finalised until long after 29th March 2019.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    The Sun revealed that Mr Corbyn had boasted of a sharing dinner with Hamas in 2010 - despite their violence against Jews and denial of the Holocaust.

    But the veteran lefty, fighting off an antisemitism storm engulfing his party, tried to distance himself from the controversy by claiming he did not remember the meal.

    During a visit to Scotland in August he told reporters: “A takeaway dinner? I don’t remember any takeaway dinners.”

    But new footage published by The Sun today shows him declaring the meal was “very nice of them and a quite a nice gesture”.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7170106/jeremy-corbyn-exposed-dining/

    The Messiah seems to be doing a lot of his lying misrembering lark recently.

    Early stage Altzheimers would get Labour off the hook.....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    https://twitter.com/earthygirl01/status/1036905570266238978

    This is one strategy from the Corbynites. Get out people who haven't voted in years. They have the people to knock on the doors, assuming the 500K members aren't mainly clicktivists.

    Will it work?

    The past says no. Or a little but only to pile up votes in Labour strongholds.

    Or seats where they have little chance.

    New Labour was ruthless at getting votes where it needed them, and ignoring the rest.
  • DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I think the referendum showed fundamental weaknesses in the concept. Firstly, the campaigns were run by groupings who did not "own" the result in any particular way, not least because they did not have the power to implement it since they were not the government. This made them reckless in a way that they might not have been had they had to deal with the consequences.

    This was discussed with reference to Ireland.

    Referendums can be a good idea if

    1. The Government of the day has a concrete plan for something they want to change
    2. They require public consent

    In those circumstances it can work well
    Yes, that's a fair point because people then know exactly what the government is going to do if it get's permission.
    Ireland also provides an example of a way forward that could have resolved the Brexit mess the form of the referendum created. Before the abortion referendum they had a citizens convention with one hundred members of the public hearing evidence and argument from all and sundry and coming to a compromise position.

    If we had done something similar before triggering Article 50 we would have a compromise that would balance immigration concerns with economic needs and have some chance of winning public support.

    Instead Theresa May saw a chance to win party advantage, Corbyn was only concerned with internal party politics and the Lib Dems thought that they could emulate the SNP and win the support of the 48%.

    My in-laws have stopped asking about Brexit. They can see that it's too embarrassing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Scott_P said:
    If they don't get the full, exact wording on paper, and rely on a 'verbal' update, then it's a disaster in the making. It'll end up as 'he-said, she-said', 'I mispoke', etc.
    More likely is that they are STILL cobbling it together.....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    I think the referendum showed fundamental weaknesses in the concept. Firstly, the campaigns were run by groupings who did not "own" the result in any particular way, not least because they did not have the power to implement it since they were not the government. This made them reckless in a way that they might not have been had they had to deal with the consequences.

    This was discussed with reference to Ireland.

    Referendums can be a good idea if

    1. The Government of the day has a concrete plan for something they want to change
    2. They require public consent

    In those circumstances it can work well
    Yes, that's a fair point because people then know exactly what the government is going to do if it get's permission.
    Ireland also provides an example of a way forward that could have resolved the Brexit mess the form of the referendum created. Before the abortion referendum they had a citizens convention with one hundred members of the public hearing evidence and argument from all and sundry and coming to a compromise position.

    If we had done something similar before triggering Article 50 we would have a compromise that would balance immigration concerns with economic needs and have some chance of winning public support.

    Instead Theresa May saw a chance to win party advantage, Corbyn was only concerned with internal party politics and the Lib Dems thought that they could emulate the SNP and win the support of the 48%.

    My in-laws have stopped asking about Brexit. They can see that it's too embarrassing.
    The poll was called in order that the public should endorse our membership of the EU, but that's not how it turned out.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    The Sun revealed that Mr Corbyn had boasted of a sharing dinner with Hamas in 2010 - despite their violence against Jews and denial of the Holocaust.

    But the veteran lefty, fighting off an antisemitism storm engulfing his party, tried to distance himself from the controversy by claiming he did not remember the meal.

    During a visit to Scotland in August he told reporters: “A takeaway dinner? I don’t remember any takeaway dinners.”

    But new footage published by The Sun today shows him declaring the meal was “very nice of them and a quite a nice gesture”.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7170106/jeremy-corbyn-exposed-dining/

    The Messiah seems to be doing a lot of his lying misrembering lark recently.

    Early stage Altzheimers would get Labour off the hook.....
    Would explain his inability to remember meeting all those antisemites, Holocaust deniers, and terrorists.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    https://twitter.com/earthygirl01/status/1036905570266238978

    This is one strategy from the Corbynites. Get out people who haven't voted in years. They have the people to knock on the doors, assuming the 500K members aren't mainly clicktivists.

    Will it work?

    The past says no. Or a little but only to pile up votes in Labour strongholds.

    The only recent example of getting non-voters to the ballot boxes was the Brexit referendum, and those non-voters were overwhelmingly in favour of leaving the EU.

    Non-voters are overwhelmingly working class and younger, people who would have been natural voters for previous incarnations of the Labour Party dedicated to workers’ rights, not so much the new middle-class Labour Party dedicated to Palestine and antisemitism.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    Anorak said:

    Who knew the NFL was such a big thing in Iran.
    https://twitter.com/Ahmadinejad1956/status/1036685396837625856

    In reality, Colin Kaepernick isn't getting a gig, because he actually isn't good enough...certainly not after not playing for 2 years.

    He had a one really good season with the 49ers, but even before all the knee protest stuff, he was on borrowed time as he had been found to have serious flaws in his game and 49ers got smashed in the two seasons before his release.

    In comparison, Michael Vick got another run after going to prison for organizing dog fighting, because he was exceptional talent.

    Now could he still be a back up, perhaps. Does he want to be a backup, I doubt it. If he hadn't upset the apple cart and wanted to warm the bench, I guessing somebody in the NFL would have probably taken a punt, but the average career in the NFL is very very short (~3 seasons) as the amount of fresh talent coming through every year is massive.

    He is 30, poor record and hasn't played for 2 seasons. Starter he ain't.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    even with the most generous interpretation, Corbyn has been exposed as intellectually unequipped to understand antisemitism, let alone combat it effectively. A simple equation then follows: a Corbyn-led party will inevitably permit some visceral prejudice against Jews. How much is OK? It is logically inconsistent to answer “none”, and then run for parliament as a Labour candidate.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/03/anti-corbyn-mps-labour-party-split
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    The Sun revealed that Mr Corbyn had boasted of a sharing dinner with Hamas in 2010 - despite their violence against Jews and denial of the Holocaust.

    But the veteran lefty, fighting off an antisemitism storm engulfing his party, tried to distance himself from the controversy by claiming he did not remember the meal.

    During a visit to Scotland in August he told reporters: “A takeaway dinner? I don’t remember any takeaway dinners.”

    But new footage published by The Sun today shows him declaring the meal was “very nice of them and a quite a nice gesture”.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7170106/jeremy-corbyn-exposed-dining/

    The Messiah seems to be doing a lot of his lying misrembering lark recently.

    Early stage Altzheimers would get Labour off the hook.....
    I feel sure that Labour will achieve a Final Solution to this Jewish issue soon :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    but the average career in the NFL is very very short (~3 seasons) as the amount of fresh talent coming through every year is massive.

    Highly dependant upon your position, if you're a good quarterback with a strong offensive line then you can probably last till your late 30s. OTOH Running backs are severely screwed by the whole college -> rookie -> (Big money) payday system as they're wrecked by the time payday actually comes along.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Roger said:

    Any odds on whether labour adopt the IHRA definition of antisemitism?

    My guess is despite the obvious advantages the answer will be 'no'. At least they'll then be free to argue the case without being silenced by the fear of the McCarthyite witch hunts which have been in evidence over the last several weeks.

    What?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    but the average career in the NFL is very very short (~3 seasons) as the amount of fresh talent coming through every year is massive.

    Highly dependant upon your position, if you're a good quarterback with a strong offensive line then you can probably last till your late 30s. OTOH Running backs are severely screwed by the whole college -> rookie -> (Big money) payday system as they're wrecked by the time payday actually comes along.
    That's a fair point. But those that last that long as a starter normally have exceptional records, e.g. Tom Brady. Kaepernick doesn't.

    Physically he should be great, big, athletic, etc, but he just doesn't have whatever it to be one of the very best.

    He passing rating is sub 90, when 100 is what you are looking for, the very best are 110+ for a season e.g. Aaron Rogers carer is 104.0, with his best season 122.5.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Roger said:

    Any odds on whether labour adopt the IHRA definition of antisemitism?

    My guess is despite the obvious advantages the answer will be 'no'. At least they'll then be free to argue the case without being silenced by the fear of the McCarthyite witch hunts which have been in evidence over the last several weeks.

    You may well be correct, although that would only keep a damaging story running.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Scott_P said:
    From his point of view, why should he reach out? He won.
  • Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Any odds on whether labour adopt the IHRA definition of antisemitism?

    My guess is despite the obvious advantages the answer will be 'no'. At least they'll then be free to argue the case without being silenced by the fear of the McCarthyite witch hunts which have been in evidence over the last several weeks.

    You may well be correct, although that would only keep a damaging story running.
    The story will keep running either way. If they adopt the definition in full with the examples, then the papers will be full of articles about how Corbyn has repeatedly been anti-Semitic according to the definition. There's a rich vein of such stories.

    If they don't adopt the definition, that will become the story.

    If (as is I think most likely) they half-adopt it with qualifications, then probably both of the above will happen.

    Given that the the principal cause of all this is Corbyn's own anti-Semitic links, there's no way out, short of ditching Corbyn and purging the party of the nasty elements who have joined in his name - which is not going to happen any time soon,
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    If (as is I think most likely) they half-adopt it with qualifications, then probably both of the above will happen.

    Given that the the principal cause of all this is Corbyn's own anti-Semitic links, there's no way out, short of ditching Corbyn and purging the party of the nasty elements who have joined in his name - which is not going to happen any time soon,

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1036927638680551424
  • Scott_P said:

    If (as is I think most likely) they half-adopt it with qualifications, then probably both of the above will happen.

    Given that the the principal cause of all this is Corbyn's own anti-Semitic links, there's no way out, short of ditching Corbyn and purging the party of the nasty elements who have joined in his name - which is not going to happen any time soon,

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1036927638680551424
    What's the betting their also exclude any historic cases from this standard.
This discussion has been closed.