Yet again Barnier is playing a blinder. How can people blame the EU for playing hardball as we approach the cliff edge when our own hard Brexiteers are in full agreement with Barnier?
In the end May will cave to Barnier and agree a transition period where we stay in the Single Market and Customs Union and effectively in the EU in all but name.
However if she has not produced a FTA in that transition by the next general election Boris will strike on a full Brexit platform backed by Mogg
So you're predicting that parliament will vote for the EU's version of the Northern Ireland backstop?
It is more likely to get through Parliament than Chequers yes which Barnier is now clearly dismissing so in effect we Brexit next March into a transition period but in reality nothing changes bar we remove the term EU from our passports, the single market and customs union, free movement, ECJ jurisdiction, payments to Brussels, EU led trade negotiations etc all will remain
Where will the votes come from? Do you think the DUP will vote for the WA including the backstop?
The DUP will vote for it as Northern Ireland will be under the same BINO as rUK, indeed I expect most MPs would vote for it bar the ERG, Hoey, Field, Mann and Stringer
It will be a BINO with an expiration date of the end of 2020, but if that's followed by Canada+ it will mean an Irish sea border.
It won't be followed by Canada+ as Barnier won't agree that as you say because of Ireland, instead I predict it will be followed by hard Brexit and Boris as PM by the end of 2021 before the general election in 2022
If the backstop is agreed then he no longer has to worry about Ireland. They can do Canada+ with an Irish sea border, which the UK will be committed to by treaty.
An Irish sea border is unacceptable to May, Unionists and the DUP so will never happen.
So as I said it will be BINO through the transition period then hard Brexit after no FTA is agreed
Except hard Brexit still entails an Irish sea border as the backstop would still be in place post-transition.
Security at home and abroad....should be interesting....I wonder how having a leader that is happy to help get an ISIS fund raiser out of jail for Christmas, while refusing to blame Russia for attacks on home soil fits into that?
'Security at Home' obviously refers to security within the Motherland of Russia.
I presume they will be showing this new Putin show at the conference, as I am sure there will be a lot of interest.
The UKIP conference, or the Aaron Banks Tory one?
Don't forget that Alex Salmond is probably wanting to watch it as well. Wouldn't want to upset the big boss man.
Yet again Barnier is playing a blinder. How can people blame the EU for playing hardball as we approach the cliff edge when our own hard Brexiteers are in full agreement with Barnier?
In the end May will cave to Barnier and agree a transition period where we stay in the Single Market and Customs Union and effectively in the EU in all but name.
However if she has not produced a FTA in that transition by the next general election Boris will strike on a full Brexit platform backed by Mogg
So you're predicting that parliament will vote for the EU's version of the Northern Ireland backstop?
It is more likely to get through Parliament than Chequers yes which Barnier is now clearly dismissing so in effect we Brexit next March into a transition period but in reality nothing changes bar we remove the term EU from our passports, the single market and customs union, free movement, ECJ jurisdiction, payments to Brussels, EU led trade negotiations etc all will remain
Where will the votes come from? Do you think the DUP will vote for the WA including the backstop?
The DUP will vote for it as Northern Ireland will be under the same BINO as rUK, indeed I expect most MPs would vote for it bar the ERG, Hoey, Field, Mann and Stringer
It will be a BINO with an expiration date of the end of 2020, but if that's followed by Canada+ it will mean an Irish sea border.
It won't be followed by Canada+ as Barnier won't agree that as you say because of Ireland, instead I predict it will be followed by hard Brexit and Boris as PM by the end of 2021 before the general election in 2022
If the backstop is agreed then he no longer has to worry about Ireland. They can do Canada+ with an Irish sea border, which the UK will be committed to by treaty.
An Irish sea border is unacceptable to May, Unionists and the DUP so will never happen.
So as I said it will be BINO through the transition period then hard Brexit after no FTA is agreed
Except hard Brexit still entails an Irish sea border as the backstop would still be in place post-transition.
+1
Anyone who wants a UK-wide hard Brexit has to push for No Deal in March.
Yet again Barnier is playing a blinder. How can people blame the EU for playing hardball as we approach the cliff edge when our own hard Brexiteers are in full agreement with Barnier?
In the end May will cave to Barnier and agree a transition period where we stay in the Single Market and Customs Union and effectively in the EU in all but name.
However if she has not produced a FTA in that transition by the next general election Boris will strike on a full Brexit platform backed by Mogg
So you're predicting that parliament will vote for the EU's version of the Northern Ireland backstop?
It is more likely to get through Parliament than Chequers yes which Barnier is now clearly dismissing so in effect we Brexit next March into a transition period but in reality nothing changes bar we remove the term EU from our passports, the single market and customs union, free movement, ECJ jurisdiction, payments to Brussels, EU led trade negotiations etc all will remain
Where will the votes come from? Do you think the DUP will vote for the WA including the backstop?
The DUP will vote for it as Northern Ireland will be under the same BINO as rUK, indeed I expect most MPs would vote for it bar the ERG, Hoey, Field, Mann and Stringer
It will be a BINO with an expiration date of the end of 2020, but if that's followed by Canada+ it will mean an Irish sea border.
It won't be followed by Canada+ as Barnier won't agree that as you say because of Ireland, instead I predict it will be followed by hard Brexit and Boris as PM by the end of 2021 before the general election in 2022
If the backstop is agreed then he no longer has to worry about Ireland. They can do Canada+ with an Irish sea border, which the UK will be committed to by treaty.
An Irish sea border is unacceptable to May, Unionists and the DUP so will never happen.
So as I said it will be BINO through the transition period then hard Brexit after no FTA is agreed
Except hard Brexit still entails an Irish sea border as the backstop would still be in place post-transition.
Hard Brexit means a hard border, given there was no deal the backstop would be irrelevant
Yet again Barnier is playing a blinder. How can people blame the EU for playing hardball as we approach the cliff edge when our own hard Brexiteers are in full agreement with Barnier?
In the end May will cave to Barnier and agree a transition period where we stay in the Single Market and Customs Union and effectively in the EU in all but name.
However if she has not produced a FTA in that transition by the next general election Boris will strike on a full Brexit platform backed by Mogg
So you're predicting that parliament will vote for the EU's version of the Northern Ireland backstop?
It is more likely to get through Parliament than Chequers yes which Barnier is now clearly dismissing so in effect we Brexit next March into a transition period but in reality nothing changes bar we remove the term EU from our passports, the single market and customs union, free movement, ECJ jurisdiction, payments to Brussels, EU led trade negotiations etc all will remain
Where will the votes come from? Do you think the DUP will vote for the WA including the backstop?
The DUP will vote for it as Northern Ireland will be under the same BINO as rUK, indeed I expect most MPs would vote for it bar the ERG, Hoey, Field, Mann and Stringer
It will be a BINO with an expiration date of the end of 2020, but if that's followed by Canada+ it will mean an Irish sea border.
It won't be followed by C22
If the backstop is agreed then he no longer has to worry about Ireland. They can do Canada+ with an Irish sea border, which the UK will be committed to by treaty.
An Irish sea border is unacceptable to May, Unionists and the DUP so will never happen.
So as I said it will be BINO through the transition period then hard Brexit after no FTA is agreed
Except hard Brexit still entails an Irish sea border as the backstop would still be in place post-transition.
+1
Anyone who wants a UK-wide hard Brexit has to push for No Deal in March.
No, just wait for the transition period to expire with No Deal, then topple May before she can plead for an extension which would potentially be indefinite
Except hard Brexit still entails an Irish sea border as the backstop would still be in place post-transition.
Hard Brexit means a hard border, given there was no deal the backstop would be irrelevant
You seem to be getting confused. If we have the BINO transition, the backstop will have been agreed as part of that (to given Ireland and the EU an insurance policy in case the ultimate deal doesn't deliver a frictionless border).
Therefore if we have Canada+ at the end of 2020, it will mean the backstop will kick in and the customs border will be in the Irish sea.
Yet again Barnier is playing a blinder. How can people blame the EU for playing hardball as we approach the cliff edge when our own hard Brexiteers are in full agreement with Barnier?
In the end May will cave to Barnier and agree a transition period where we stay in the Single Market and Customs Union and effectively in the EU in all but name.
However if she has not produced a FTA in that transition by the next general election Boris will strike on a full Brexit platform backed by Mogg
So you're predicting that parliament will vote for the EU's version of the Northern Ireland backstop?
It is more likely to get through Parliament than Chequers yes which Barnier is now clearly dismissing so in effect we Brexit next March into a transition period but...remain
Where will the votes come from? Do you think the DUP will vote for the WA including the backstop?
The DUP will vote for it as Northern Ireland will be under the same BINO as rUK, indeed I expect most MPs would vote for it bar the ERG, Hoey, Field, Mann and Stringer
It will be a BINO with an expiration date of the end of 2020, but if that's followed by Canada+ it will mean an Irish sea border.
It won't be followed by Canada+ as Barnier won't agree that as you say because of Ireland, instead I predict it will be followed by hard Brexit and Boris as PM by the end of 2021 before the general election in 2022
If the backstop is agreed then he no longer has to worry about Ireland. They can do Canada+ with an Irish sea border, which the UK will be committed to by treaty.
An Irish sea border is unacceptable to May, Unionists and the DUP so will never happen.
So as I said it will be BINO through the transition period then hard Brexit after no FTA is agreed
Except hard Brexit still entails an Irish sea border as the backstop would still be in place post-transition.
Hard Brexit means a hard border, given there was no deal the backstop would be irrelevant
The whole point of the backstop is that it occurs in the event of no further deal.
Your scenario one of the few that isn’t a possibility.
Except hard Brexit still entails an Irish sea border as the backstop would still be in place post-transition.
Hard Brexit means a hard border, given there was no deal the backstop would be irrelevant
You seem to be getting confused. If we have the BINO transition, the backstop will have been agreed as part of that (to given Ireland and the EU an insurance policy in case the ultimate deal doesn't deliver a frictionless border).
Therefore if we have Canada+ at the end of 2020, it will mean the backstop will kick in and the customs border will be in the Irish sea.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed, any backstop in Ireland would be on the UK's terms, not Ireland's and not the EU's.
There will be no Canada+ at the end of 2020 as Barnier will not agree to it applying to Ireland which May and Unionists and the DUP will not accept
Yet again Barnier is playing a blinder. How can people blame the EU for playing hardball as we approach the cliff edge when our own hard Brexiteers are in full agreement with Barnier?
In the end May will cave to Barnier and agree a transition period where we stay in the Single Market and Customs Union and effectively in the EU in all but name.
However if she has not produced a FTA in that transition by the next general election Boris will strike on a full Brexit platform backed by Mogg
So you're predicting that parliament will vote for the EU's version of the Northern Ireland backstop?
It is more likely to get through Parliament than Chequers yes which Barnier is now clearly dismissing so in effect we Brexit next March into a transition period but...remain
Where will the votes come from? Do you think the DUP will vote for the WA including the backstop?
The DUP will vote for it as Northern Ireland will be under the same BINO as rUK, indeed I expect most MPs would vote for it bar the ERG, Hoey, Field, Mann and Stringer
It will be a BINO with an expiration date of the end of 2020, but if that's followed by Canada+ it will mean an Irish sea border.
It won't be followed by 022
If the backstop is agreed thch the UK will be committed to by treaty.
An Irish sea border is unacceptable to May, Unionists and the DUP so will never happen.
So as I said it will be BINO through the transition period then hard Brexit after no FTA is agreed
Except hard Brexit still entails an Irish sea border as the backstop would still be in place post-transition.
Hard Brexit means a hard border, given there was no deal the backstop would be irrelevant
The whole point of the backstop is that it occurs in the event of no further deal.
Your scenario one of the few that isn’t a possibility.
In the event of hard Brexit any backstop agreed given No Deal would be on the UK's terms, the EU at the moment is solely using the backstop to blackmail the UK into effectively staying in the single market and customs unions permanently or else No Deal or at least No Deal acceptable to the DUP and Unionists
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
Hard Brexit means a hard border, given there was no deal the backstop would be irrelevant
No deal for Great Britain but the deal for Northern Ireland (the backstop) remains in place. Why do you think the EU is putting so much pressure on us to agree to it. The backstop would be part of an international treaty.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
Hard Brexit means a hard border, given there was no deal the backstop would be irrelevant
No deal for Great Britain but the deal for Northern Ireland (the backstop) remains in place. Why do you think the EU is putting so much pressure on us to agree to it. The backstop would be part of an international treaty.
It is unlikely the British government will agree to any open border backstop as that would effectively preclude any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP even on the slim chance it was agreed as it would require different terms for goods checks and services movement on the mainland UK to Northern Ireland, at the most the backstop would have vague commitments to 'high-tech' checks etc
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
Which is why Theresa May was irredeemably stupid to agree to it in any shape, form or guise - and why it will end her premiership.
Unless the EU backs off, it will face PM Boris. He is positioning himself to be the No Deal Brexit PM.
Hard Brexit means a hard border, given there was no deal the backstop would be irrelevant
No deal for Great Britain but the deal for Northern Ireland (the backstop) remains in place. Why do you think the EU is putting so much pressure on us to agree to it. The backstop would be part of an international treaty.
It is unlikely the British government will agree to any open border backstop as that would effectively preclude any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP even on the slim chance it was agreed as it would require different terms for goods checks and services movement on the mainland UK to Northern Ireland, at the most the backstop would have vague commitments to 'high-tech' checks etc
No open border backstop, no transition.
Once the transition is agreed with a backstop it's too late to reverse it. We then either sign a BINO open border deal for the whole UK ... or have an Irish sea border. There will be no alternative because we will have already agreed by treaty to the backstop.
Yet again Barnier is playing a blinder. How can people blame the EU for playing hardball as we approach the cliff edge when our own hard Brexiteers are in full agreement with Barnier?
In the end May will cave to Barnier and agree a transition period where we stay in the Single Market and Customs Union and effectively in the EU in all but name.
However if she has not produced a FTA in that transition by the next general election Boris will strike on a full Brexit platform backed by Mogg
So you're predicting that parliament will vote for the EU's version of the Northern Ireland backstop?
It is more likely to get through Parliament than Chequers yes which Barnier is now clearly dismissing so in effect we Brexit next March into a transition period but in reality nothing changes bar we remove the term EU from our passports, the single market and customs union, free movement, ECJ jurisdiction, payments to Brussels, EU led trade negotiations etc all will remain
Where will the votes come from? Do you think the DUP will vote for the WA including the backstop?
The DUP will vote for it as Northern Ireland will be under the same BINO as rUK, indeed I expect most MPs would vote for it bar the ERG, Hoey, Field, Mann and Stringer
It will be a BINO with an expiration date of the end of 2020, but if that's followed by Canada+ it will mean an Irish sea border.
It won't be followed by Canada+ as Barnier won't agree that as you say because of Ireland, instead I predict it will be followed by hard Brexit and Boris as PM by the end of 2021 before the general election in 2022
If the backstop is agreed then he no longer has to worry about Ireland. They can do Canada+ with an Irish sea border, which the UK will be committed to by treaty.
An Irish sea border is unacceptable to May, Unionists and the DUP so will never happen.
So as I said it will be BINO through the transition period then hard Brexit after no FTA is agreed
It would be ironic if after two years of propping May up, the transition arrangements, and potentially the final deal, were unacceptable to the Unionists. I suppose that if the votes in parliament this autumn look bad for them, the DUP might withdraw their support and trigger a general election?
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
Which is why Theresa May was irredeemably stupid to agree to it in any shape, form or guise - and why it will end her premiership.
Unless the EU backs off, it will face PM Boris. He is positioning himself to be the No Deal Brexit PM.
Over to you, EU.....
It's noteworthy that Boris is not advocating No Deal. He wants to sign the Withdrawal Agreement but then chuck Chequers and go for Canada+, effectively leaving the DUP high and dry.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal being agreed before March. As the Chequers Deal will effectively be rejected by November the transition deal agreed in November will effectively be the UK stays in the single market and customs union which will then go to the Parliaments and the backstop agreed will therefore be 'hi tech' checks etc at most, otherwise any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP will be precluded
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
Which is why Theresa May was irredeemably stupid to agree to it in any shape, form or guise - and why it will end her premiership.
Unless the EU backs off, it will face PM Boris. He is positioning himself to be the No Deal Brexit PM.
Over to you, EU.....
It's noteworthy that Boris is not advocating No Deal. He wants to sign the Withdrawal Agreement but then chuck Chequers and go for Canada+, effectively leaving the DUP high and dry.
No, he is simply refusing to agree the NI backstop. It is now becoming obvious, as some of us have been saying here since December, that the NI backstop was a huge mistake (for both parties) and the only way any Brexit deal can be concluded is if it is withdrawn.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
Which is why Theresa May was irredeemably stupid to agree to it in any shape, form or guise - and why it will end her premiership.
Unless the EU backs off, it will face PM Boris. He is positioning himself to be the No Deal Brexit PM.
Over to you, EU.....
It's noteworthy that Boris is not advocating No Deal. He wants to sign the Withdrawal Agreement but then chuck Chequers and go for Canada+, effectively leaving the DUP high and dry.
No evidence of that and of course he cannot without the DUP voting down the government and forcing a general election even if he wanted to as the DUP hold the balance of power.
Mogg has been quite clear Canada+ is viable but it requires the EU to compromise on the Irish border which it won't
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal being agreed before March. As the Chequers Deal will effectively be rejected by November the transition deal agreed in November will effectively be the UK stays in the single market and customs union which will then go to the Parliaments and the backstop agreed will therefore be 'hi tech' checks etc at most, otherwise any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP will be precluded
There is absolutely no linkage between the backstop and Chequers (except to the extent that it helps presentationally to make it look like the backstop will never become operational). Whether Chequers is the basis of future relationship negotiations or not, the backstop will form part of the Withdrawal Agreement.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
Which is why Theresa May was irredeemably stupid to agree to it in any shape, form or guise - and why it will end her premiership.
Unless the EU backs off, it will face PM Boris. He is positioning himself to be the No Deal Brexit PM.
Over to you, EU.....
Ha. The EU won't redefine its policies in order to affect the UK's internal politics. a. Our politics are already a sh*tstorm. b. Boris has more chance of being the next Pope.
What a difficult dilemma for the Guardian. On the one hand he's black, and is threatened with deportation to Ghana, which he left at the age of 4, by the evil Tories in the Home Office, who are apparently unmoved by the fact that he has spent his time 'speaking with thousands of students'. Normally this combination would guarantee indignation at full throttle, but on the other hand he's a banker who was found guilty of causing a $2.3bn (£1.8bn) financial loss through fraudulent trading, which would normally guarantee that he deserved everything he got and more.
What's a 'progressive' supposed to make of this dilemma?
I know the truth about Mr Adoboli. It has not all been made public and it is not pretty. It is not the bullshit he has been peddling to journalists ever since he was released. “Thousands of students” my arse! The sooner he’s on that plane to Ghana, the better.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
Which is why Theresa May was irredeemably stupid to agree to it in any shape, form or guise - and why it will end her premiership.
Unless the EU backs off, it will face PM Boris. He is positioning himself to be the No Deal Brexit PM.
Over to you, EU.....
It's noteworthy that Boris is not advocating No Deal. He wants to sign the Withdrawal Agreement but then chuck Chequers and go for Canada+, effectively leaving the DUP high and dry.
No, he is simply refusing to agree the NI backstop. It is now becoming obvious, as some of us have been saying here since December, that the NI backstop was a huge mistake (for both parties) and the only way any Brexit deal can be concluded is if it is withdrawn.
Why do you care so much about including Northern Ireland in Brexitland? Reunification is inevitable at some point, so decoupling it from the mainland shouldn't be a problem if you're objective.
Hard Brexit means a hard border, given there was no deal the backstop would be irrelevant
No deal for Great Britain but the deal for Northern Ireland (the backstop) remains in place. Why do you think the EU is putting so much pressure on us to agree to it. The backstop would be part of an international treaty.
It is unlikely the British government will agree to any open border backstop as that would effectively preclude any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP even on the slim chance it was agreed as it would require different terms for goods checks and services movement on the mainland UK to Northern Ireland, at the most the backstop would have vague commitments to 'high-tech' checks etc
No open border backstop, no transition.
Once the transition is agreed with a backstop it's too late to reverse it. We then either sign a BINO open border deal for the whole UK ... or have an Irish sea border. There will be no alternative because we will have already agreed by treaty to the backstop.
The agreement will be we stay in the single market and customs union in the transition, which means an open border by default. It will be a BINO open border deal for the whole UK which May will sign up to
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Yeah, HYUFD is quite wrong here. The withdrawal agreement will indeed be an international treaty and if it does not include a termination provision we will be stuck with it, which is why May has to be stopped from signing it. Not to mention that it will commit the UK to pay the 40bn regardless of whether the EU ever finalise the trade part of whatever deal May can pretend she has agreed.
It has been made quite clear now that there is no link agreed between the money and a trade agreement. May will try to sign the withdrawal agreement and then immediately the EU will simply rely on the NI backstop and never agree to the Chequers trade agreement - easy!
No wonder everyone realises Chequers is dead. Leavers have a plan - CETA. What is the Remainers plan now....?
Yet again Barnier is playing a blinder. How can people blame the EU for playing hardball as we approach the cliff edge when our own hard Brexiteers are in full agreement with Barnier?
In the end May will cave to Barnier and agree a transition period where we stay in the Single Market and Customs Union and effectively in the EU in all but name.
However if she has not produced a FTA in that transition by the next general election Boris will strike on a full Brexit platform backed by Mogg
So you're predicting that parliament will vote for the EU's version of the Northern Ireland backstop?
It is more likely to get through Parliament than Chequers yes which Barnier is now clearly dismissing so in effect we Brexit next March into a transition period but in reality nothing changes bar we remove the term EU from our passports, the single market and customs union, free movement, ECJ jurisdiction, payments to Brussels, EU led trade negotiations etc all will remain
Where will the votes come from? Do you think the DUP will vote for the WA including the backstop?
The DUP will vote for it as Northern Ireland will be under the same BINO as rUK, indeed I expect most MPs would vote for it bar the ERG, Hoey, Field, Mann and Stringer
It will be a BINO with an expiration date of the end of 2020, but if that's followed by Canada+ it will mean an Irish sea border.
It won't be followed by 2022
If the backstop is agreed then he no longer has to worry about Ireland. They can do Canada+ with an Irish sea border, which the UK will be committed to by treaty.
An Irish sea border is unacceptable to May, Unionists and the DUP so will never happen.
So as I said it will be BINO through the transition period then hard Brexit after no FTA is agreed
It would be ironic if after two years of propping May up, the transition arrangements, and potentially the final deal, were unacceptable to the Unionists. I suppose that if the votes in parliament this autumn look bad for them, the DUP might withdraw their support and trigger a general election?
May will do a BINO Deal for the whole UK in the end as given Barnier has now effectively rejected Chequers that is the only acceptable option for the DUP which avoids them triggering a general election
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Yeah, HYUFD is quite wrong here. The withdrawal agreement will indeed be an international treaty and if it does not include a termination provision we will be stuck with it, which is why May has to be stopped from signing it. Not to mention that it will commit the UK to pay the 40bn regardless of whether the EU ever finalise the trade part of whatever deal May can pretend she has agreed.
It has been made quite clear now that there is no link agreed between the money and a trade agreement. May will try to sign the withdrawal agreement and then immediately the EU will simply rely on the NI backstop and never agree to the Chequers trade agreement - easy!
No wonder everyone realises Chequers is dead. Leavers have a plan - CETA. What is the Remainers plan now....?
I think you'll find that the Remainers' plan is to stay in the EU.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
Which is why Theresa May was irredeemably stupid to agree to it in any shape, form or guise - and why it will end her premiership.
Unless the EU backs off, it will face PM Boris. He is positioning himself to be the No Deal Brexit PM.
Over to you, EU.....
It's noteworthy that Boris is not advocating No Deal. He wants to sign the Withdrawal Agreement but then chuck Chequers and go for Canada+, effectively leaving the DUP high and dry.
No, he is simply refusing to agree the NI backstop. It is now becoming obvious, as some of us have been saying here since December, that the NI backstop was a huge mistake (for both parties) and the only way any Brexit deal can be concluded is if it is withdrawn.
Why do you care so much about including Northern Ireland in Brexitland? Reunification is inevitable at some point, so decoupling it from the mainland shouldn't be a problem if you're objective.
It is called principle. Until NI democratically decides to change its status, it is part of the UK. Any interference by the EU in the internal functioning of the UK is unacceptable.
Plus, in any event, the NI backstop is and has always been about increasing the EU's negotiating leverage, not about any real problem. The EU simply want to be able to use the NI backstop to get what they want in advance of the trade negotiation starting so that they can renege on any promises they have made in the 'political declaration'. So on that basis alone it can never be agreed.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Yeah, HYUFD is quite wrong here. The withdrawal agreement will indeed be an international treaty and if it does not include a termination provision we will be stuck with it, which is why May has to be stopped from signing it. Not to mention that it will commit the UK to pay the 40bn regardless of whether the EU ever finalise the trade part of whatever deal May can pretend she has agreed.
It has been made quite clear now that there is no link agreed between the money and a trade agreement. May will try to sign the withdrawal agreement and then immediately the EU will simply rely on the NI backstop and never agree to the Chequers trade agreement - easy!
No wonder everyone realises Chequers is dead. Leavers have a plan - CETA. What is the Remainers plan now....?
The 40bn will be to get the transition, not a trade agreement.
CETA is unacceptable to the DUP so will not get through as Barnier refuses to allow it to be applied in Northern Ireland
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Yeah, HYUFD is quite wrong here. The withdrawal agreement will indeed be an international treaty and if it does not include a termination provision we will be stuck with it, which is why May has to be stopped from signing it. Not to mention that it will commit the UK to pay the 40bn regardless of whether the EU ever finalise the trade part of whatever deal May can pretend she has agreed.
It has been made quite clear now that there is no link agreed between the money and a trade agreement. May will try to sign the withdrawal agreement and then immediately the EU will simply rely on the NI backstop and never agree to the Chequers trade agreement - easy!
No wonder everyone realises Chequers is dead. Leavers have a plan - CETA. What is the Remainers plan now....?
I think you'll find that the Remainers' plan is to stay in the EU.
That is not a plan - it is just a delusion. We are leaving - they need a plan to deal with that, or they can simply accept the reality that the Leavers need to be put in charge and try and agree CETA (or no deal now, CETA later).
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
Which is why Theresa May was irredeemably stupid to agree to it in any shape, form or guise - and why it will end her premiership.
Unless the EU backs off, it will face PM Boris. He is positioning himself to be the No Deal Brexit PM.
Over to you, EU.....
It's noteworthy that Boris is not advocating No Deal. He wants to sign the Withdrawal Agreement but then chuck Chequers and go for Canada+, effectively leaving the DUP high and dry.
No, he is simply refusing to agree the NI backstop. It is now becoming obvious, as some of us have been saying here since December, that the NI backstop was a huge mistake (for both parties) and the only way any Brexit deal can be concluded is if it is withdrawn.
Why do you care so much about including Northern Ireland in Brexitland? Reunification is inevitable at some point, so decoupling it from the mainland shouldn't be a problem if you're objective.
No it is not, Protestants in Northern Ireland will never, never, ever accept being part of the Catholic Republic of Ireland as I have told you umpteen times
It is called principle. Until NI democratically decides to change its status, it is part of the UK. Any interference by the EU in the internal functioning of the UK is unacceptable.
Plus, in any event, the NI backstop is and has always been about increasing the EU's negotiating leverage, not about any real problem. The EU simply want to be able to use the NI backstop to get what they want in advance of the trade negotiation starting so that they can renege on any promises they have made in the 'political declaration'. So on that basis alone it can never be agreed.
The NI backstop doesn't give them any leverage at all if you don't care about an Irish sea customs border. Therefore the best way to frustrate them is to agree to it or better still, contrive to lose a border poll.
Oh God. Kill it. Kill it with hammers. Willis is far too old for this.
I can't be as bad as the Hans solo movie ;-)
Fair point, but at least "Solo" didn't have a geriatric Harrison Ford hanging around the place smelling like farts whilst trying to stand upright. Willis is approaching Shatner levels of ridiculousness but without the self-awareness.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
Which is why Theresa May was irredeemably stupid to agree to it in any shape, form or guise - and why it will end her premiership.
Unless the EU backs off, it will face PM Boris. He is positioning himself to be the No Deal Brexit PM.
Over to you, EU.....
It's notry.
No, he is simply refusing to agree the NI backstncluded is if it is withdrawn.
Why do you care so much about including Northern Ireland in Brexitland? Reunification is inevitable at some point, so decoupling it from the mainland shouldn't be a problem if you're objective.
It is called principle. Until NI democratically decides to change its status, it is part of the UK. Any interference by the EU in the internal functioning of the UK is unacceptable.
Plus, in any event, the NI backstop is and has always been about increasing the EU's negotiating leverage, not about any real problem. The EU simply want to be able to use the NI backstop to get what they want in advance of the trade negotiation starting so that they can renege on any promises they have made in the 'political declaration'. So on that basis alone it can never be agreed.
I agree on that, the EU simply wants to use the NI backstop to try and force the UK to stay permanently in the single market and customs union and then hopefully back into the EU.
It is poking its nose in the sectarian hornets nest of Northern Irish politics purely to advance its own ends, CETA could be applied quite easily to Northern Ireland without any major border problems and in any case Sinn Fein have effectively collapsed the GFA by refusing to participate in the Stormont Executive anyway
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Yeah, HYUFD is quite wrong here. The withdrawal agreement will indeed be an international treaty and if it does not include a termination provision we will be stuck with it, which is why May has to be stopped from signing it. Not to mention that it will commit the UK to pay the 40bn regardless of whether the EU ever finalise the trade part of whatever deal May can pretend she has agreed.
It has been made quite clear now that there is no link agreed between the money and a trade agreement. May will try to sign the withdrawal agreement and then immediately the EU will simply rely on the NI backstop and never agree to the Chequers trade agreement - easy!
No wonder everyone realises Chequers is dead. Leavers have a plan - CETA. What is the Remainers plan now....?
The 40bn will be to get the transition, not a trade agreement.
CETA is unacceptable to the DUP so will not get through as Barnier refuses to allow it to be applied in Northern Ireland
Oh dear, your useless leader PROMISED us that she would not pay the money unless there was a trade agreement. She wanted to make it perfectly clear as I remember!
We invoked article 50 which gave us 2 years notice - now you are basically telling us we need to pay 40bn which we don't legally owe for another two years (before we exit with no deal then) because May and the Tories were too useless to deal with reality and get ready for no deal now? Good luck explaining that at the next election. You might be the only Tory voter left.
Barnier simply needs to be told, as the real Tory JRM just told him, that the NI backstop is not acceptable and the EU have a simple choice - CETA now and no backstop, or no deal (and no doubt CETA later because the NI border issue solves itself after no deal).
It is called principle. Until NI democratically decides to change its status, it is part of the UK. Any interference by the EU in the internal functioning of the UK is unacceptable.
Plus, in any event, the NI backstop is and has always been about increasing the EU's negotiating leverage, not about any real problem. The EU simply want to be able to use the NI backstop to get what they want in advance of the trade negotiation starting so that they can renege on any promises they have made in the 'political declaration'. So on that basis alone it can never be agreed.
The NI backstop doesn't give them any leverage at all if you don't care about an Irish sea customs border. Therefore the best way to frustrate them is to agree to it or better still, contrive to lose a border poll.
The best way to frustrate them is simply to say 'No'. Or 'No, No, No' as a real Tory leader would put it.
Barnier simply needs to be told, as the real Tory JRM just told him, that the NI backstop is not acceptable and the EU have a simple choice - CETA now and no backstop, or no deal (and no doubt CETA later because the NI border issue solves itself after no deal).
What's your source for JRM having told him that? His quote after the meeting was just waffle about neither side wanting a border, which isn't necessarily inconsistent with agreeing to the backstop.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Yeah, HYUFD is quite wrong here. The withdrawal agreement will indeed be an international treaty and if it does not include a termination provision we will be stuck with it, which is why May has to be stopped from signing it. Not to mention that it will commit the UK to pay the 40bn regardless of whether the EU ever finalise the trade part of whatever deal May can pretend she has agreed.
It has been man now....?
The 40bn will be to get the transition, not a trade agreement.
CETA is unacceptable to the DUP so will not get through as Barnier refuses to allow it to be applied in Northern Ireland
Oh dear, your useless leader PROMISED us that she would not pay the money unless there was a trade agreement. She wanted to make it perfectly clear as I remember!
We invoked article 50 which gave us 2 years notice - now you are basically telling us we need to pay 40bn which we don't legally owe for another two years (before we exit with no deal then) because May and the Tories were too useless to deal with reality and get ready for no deal now? Good luck explaining that at the next election. You might be the only Tory voter left.
Barnier simply needs to be told, as the real Tory JRM just told him, that the NI backstop is not acceptable and the EU have a simple choice - CETA now and no backstop, or no deal (and no doubt CETA later because the NI border issue solves itself after no deal).
A no deal Brexit straight away would not help the Tories either.
The best solution for the Tories is probably to agree BINO, show how obstinate the EU is when it yet again refuses to agree a deal, ensure the transition period allows enough time for business to prepare for No Deal then go to No Deal just before the next general election before much economic damage has been done and to ensure it can show its voters it has delivered the Brexit it voted for.
If Barnier concedes CETA he concedes the EU's plan to use the backstop as a way to force the UK back into the Single Market, the Customs Union and the EU by the backdoor. There is no economic logic to their position (CETA for the whole UK would be fine for that), it is pure ideology and politics
Barnier simply needs to be told, as the real Tory JRM just told him, that the NI backstop is not acceptable and the EU have a simple choice - CETA now and no backstop, or no deal (and no doubt CETA later because the NI border issue solves itself after no deal).
What's your source for JRM having told him that? His quote after the meeting was just waffle about neither side wanting a border, which isn't necessarily inconsistent with agreeing to the backstop.
JRM was on Newsnight saying the EU needs to compromise on Northern Ireland and the border to allow CETA to work, otherwise it was ready to go
Oh God. Kill it. Kill it with hammers. Willis is far too old for this.
Retired NY Cop realises that the suddenly muscular and male care workers in his old folks home are stockpiling suspicious supplies in the staffroom next to the bank next door.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal being agreed before March. As the Chequers Deal will effectively be rejected by November the transition deal agreed in November will effectively be the UK stays in the single market and customs union which will then go to the Parliaments and the backstop agreed will therefore be 'hi tech' checks etc at most, otherwise any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP will be precluded
The Chequers Deal can't be agreed before March. There isn't the time, negotiations on a deal would be decided during the transition - by which point the backstop will already be in place. The EU has said that they won't offer a transition without the backstop and hi tech checks aren't enough.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal being agreed before March. As the Chequers Deal will effectively be rejected by November the transition deal agreed in November will effectively be the UK stays in the single market and customs union which will then go to the Parliaments and the backstop agreed will therefore be 'hi tech' checks etc at most, otherwise any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP will be precluded
The Chequers Deal can't be agreed before March. There isn't the time, negotiations on a deal would be decided during the transition - by which point the backstop will already be in place. The EU has said that they won't offer a transition without the backstop and hi tech checks aren't enough.
No, the Chequers Deal has effectively already been rejected by Barnier this week so it will be a BINO transition deal in which we stay in the single market and customs union but almost certainly with no FTA agreed by 2021, likely ultimately leading to hard Brexit though the EU will try and push a permanent transition or reversal of Brexit.
As May will agree to stay in the single market and customs union before the transition period is agreed the precise terms of the backstop will be irrelevant
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal being agreed before March. As the Chequers Deal will effectively be rejected by November the transition deal agreed in November will effectively be the UK stays in the single market and customs union which will then go to the Parliaments and the backstop agreed will therefore be 'hi tech' checks etc at most, otherwise any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP will be precluded
The Chequers Deal can't be agreed before March. There isn't the time, negotiations on a deal would be decided during the transition - by which point the backstop will already be in place. The EU has said that they won't offer a transition without the backstop and hi tech checks aren't enough.
No, the Chequers Deal has effectively already been rejected by Barnier this week so it will be a BINO transition deal in which we stay in the single market and customs union but almost certainly with no FTA agreed by 2021, likely ultimately leading to hard Brexit though the EU will try and push a permanent transition or reversal of Brexit.
As May will agree to stay in the single market and customs union before the transition period is agreed the precise terms of the backstop will be irrelevant
Did you think that if the Chequers deal were accepted it would kick in in March and replace the transition? That's not the case. The status quo transition is happening no matter what if we agree to the withdrawal agreement, even if the EU thought Chequers was marvellous.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal being agreed before March. As the Chequers Deal will effectively be rejected by November the transition deal agreed in November will effectively be the UK stays in the single market and customs union which will then go to the Parliaments and the backstop agreed will therefore be 'hi tech' checks etc at most, otherwise any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP will be precluded
The Chequers Deal can't be agreed before March. There isn't the time, negotiations on a deal would be decided during the transition - by which point the backstop will already be in place. The EU has said that they won't offer a transition without the backstop and hi tech checks aren't enough.
No, the Chequers Deal has effectively already been rejected by Barnier this week so it will be a BINO transition deal in which we stay in the single market and customs union but almost certainly with no FTA agreed by 2021, likely ultimately leading to hard Brexit though the EU will try and push a permanent transition or reversal of Brexit.
As May will agree to stay in the single market and customs union before the transition period is agreed the precise terms of the backstop will be irrelevant
In order to get a transition we need to agree to an open border backstop.
If we agree to an open border backstop then a hard Brexit means an Irish sea border.
Did you think that if the Chequers deal were accepted it would kick in in March and replace the transition? That's not the case. The status quo transition is happening no matter what if we agree to the withdrawal agreement, even if the EU thought Chequers was marvellous.
Once the transition is in the backstop is in. Then the EU can dictate whatever they want as if we don't agree to their terms it is an Irish sea border. And we have no exit from that.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal being agreed before March. As the Chequers Deal will effectively be rejected by November the transition deal agreed in November will effectively be the UK stays in the single market and customs union which will then go to the Parliaments and the backstop agreed will therefore be 'hi tech' checks etc at most, otherwise any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP will be precluded
The Chequers Deal can't be agreed before March. There isn't the time, negotiations on a deal would be decided during the transition - by which point the backstop will already be in place. The EU has said that they won't offer a transition without the backstop and hi tech checks aren't enough.
PT is quite correct here. We can all speculate on whether Labour would support or oppose Chequers if May had managed to get this agreed. But if May comes back with just a transition, no real deal on trade, the NI backstop and promises to pay the bill, Labour would be mad to do anything other than oppose and they certainly won't get the blame because 80% of the voters will agree that this is unacceptable. There is just no chance whatsoever that this will get through the HoC.
Remainers are full of it. There has NEVER been a soft Brexit option other than full EEA + CU (eg Remain). The only real options are No Deal, or CETA (and the EU back down on NI).
If May stays, it will be No Deal. If the ERG take over, I think the EU will realise their bluff has been called and agree CETA with no backstop.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal bein precluded
The Chequers Deal can't be agreed before March. There isn't the time, negotiations on a deal would be decided during the transition - by which point the backstop will already be in place. The EU has said that they won't offer a transition without the backstop and hi tech checks aren't enough.
No, the Chequers Deal has effectively already been rejected by Barnier this week so it will be a BINO transition deal in which we stay in the single market and customs union but almost certainly with no FTA agreed by 2021, likely ultimately leading to hard Brexit though the EU will try and push a permanent transition or reversal of Brexit.
As May will agree to stay in the single market and customs union before the transition period is agreed the precise terms of the backstop will be irrelevant
Did you think that if the Chequers deal were accepted it would kick in in March and replace the transition? That's not the case. The status quo transition is happening no matter what if we agree to the withdrawal agreement, even if the EU thought Chequers was marvellous.
If a FTA was agreed in full by November on Chequers Deal terms (almost impossible but in theory possible) there would by definition be no need for a transition
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal bein precluded
The Chequers Deal can't be agreed before March. There isn't the time, negotiations on a deal would be decided during the transition - by which point the backstop will already be in place. The EU has said that they won't offer a transition without the backstop and hi tech checks aren't enough.
No, the Chequers Deal has effectively already been rejected by Barnier this week so it will be a BINO transition deal in which we stay in the single market and customs union but almost certainly with no FTA agreed by 2021, likely ultimately leading to hard Brexit though the EU will try and push a permanent transition or reversal of Brexit.
As May will agree to stay in the single market and customs union before the transition period is agreed the precise terms of the backstop will be irrelevant
Did you think that if the Chequers deal were accepted it would kick in in March and replace the transition? That's not the case. The status quo transition is happening no matter what if we agree to the withdrawal agreement, even if the EU thought Chequers was marvellous.
If a FTA was agreed in full by November on Chequers Deal terms (almost impossible but in theory possible) there would by definition be no need for a transition
That's totally wrong. The transition is necessary because any new relationship takes time to implement.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal being agreed before March. As the Chequers Deal will effectively be rejected by November the transition deal agreed in November will effectively be the UK stays in the single market and customs union which will then go to the Parliaments and the backstop agreed will therefore be 'hi tech' checks etc at most, otherwise any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP will be precluded
The Chnough.
No, the Chequers Deal has effectively already been rejected by Barnier this week so it will be a BINO transition deal in which we stay in the single market and customs union but almost certainly with no FTA agreed by 2021, likely ultimately leading to hard Brexit though the EU will try and push a permanent transition or reversal of Brexit.
As May will agree to stay in the single market and customs union before the transition period is agreed the precise terms of the backstop will be irrelevant
In order to get a transition we need to agree to an open border backstop.
If we agree to an open border backstop then a hard Brexit means an Irish sea border.
No we don't and even May has not said there will be an entirely open border backstop in Ireland, the Chequers Deal and staying in the single market for goods was what was she intended to be the solution to the Irish backstop issue
"White South African workers protest against Sasol's black share scheme
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Workers from South Africa’s mainly-white Solidarity union staged a go-slow protest at the petrochemicals firm Sasol on Monday over a share scheme offered exclusively to black staff, and said they would begin a full strike on Thursday."
PT is quite correct here. We can all speculate on whether Labour would support or oppose Chequers if May had managed to get this agreed. But if May comes back with just a transition, no real deal on trade, the NI backstop and promises to pay the bill, Labour would be mad to do anything other than oppose and they certainly won't get the blame because 80% of the voters will agree that this is unacceptable. There is just no chance whatsoever that this will get through the HoC.
Remainers are full of it. There has NEVER been a soft Brexit option other than full EEA + CU (eg Remain). The only real options are No Deal, or CETA (and the EU back down on NI).
If May stays, it will be No Deal. If the ERG take over, I think the EU will realise their bluff has been called and agree CETA with no backstop.
Actually I think Labour would agree to the transition despite it being awful as they don't want to be the ones to trigger no deal. At which point during the transition May (or her successor) would have their hands tied by the backstop and the Tories will likely tear themselves apart as we go into the next election having not properly left still. Labour can just sit back and watch it happen.
If May stays it will be full EEA + CU. Brexit in name only.
If May goes I agree the EU will realise their bluff has been called. But I don't trust Parliament to call their bluff.
Did you think that if the Chequers deal were accepted it would kick in in March and replace the transition? That's not the case. The status quo transition is happening no matter what if we agree to the withdrawal agreement, even if the EU thought Chequers was marvellous.
Once the transition is in the backstop is in. Then the EU can dictate whatever they want as if we don't agree to their terms it is an Irish sea border. And we have no exit from that.
100% correct - which is why I think that it will never happen. It just can't be sold to the public when they focus on it. I doubt even 10% of the public will support the backstop and the money with no real trade agreement.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal bein precluded
The Chequers Deal can't be agreed before March. There isn't the time, negotiations on a deal would be decided during the transition - by which point the backstop will already be in place. The EU has said that they won't offer a transition without the backstop and hi tech checks aren't enough.
backstop will be irrelevant
Did you think that if the Chequers deal were accepted it would kick in in March and replace the transition? That's not the case. The status quo transition is happening no matter what if we agree to the withdrawal agreement, even if the EU thought Chequers was marvellous.
If a FTA was agreed in full by November on Chequers Deal terms (almost impossible but in theory possible) there would by definition be no need for a transition
That's totally wrong. The transition is necessary because any new relationship takes time to implement.
If a FTA was agreed in full by November and then implemented by March there would be no need for a transition.
A transition is only there to negotiate a trade deal or more likely in our case to prepare for No Deal
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal being agreed before March. As the Chequers Deal will effectively be rejected by November the transition deal agreed in November will effectively be the UK stays in the single market and customs union which will then go to the Parliaments and the backstop agreed will therefore be 'hi tech' checks etc at most, otherwise any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP will be precluded
The Chnough.
No, the Chequers Deal has effectively already been rejected by Barnier this week so it will be a BINO transition deal in which we stay in the single market and customs union but almost certainly with no FTA agreed by 2021, likely ultimately leading to hard Brexit though the EU will try and push a permanent transition or reversal of Brexit.
As May will agree to stay in the single market and customs union before the transition period is agreed the precise terms of the backstop will be irrelevant
In order to get a transition we need to agree to an open border backstop.
If we agree to an open border backstop then a hard Brexit means an Irish sea border.
No we don't and even May has not said there will be an entirely open border backstop in Ireland, the Chequers Deal and staying in the single market for goods was what was she intended to be the solution to the Irish backstop issue
Do you understand what the backstop is and what its purpose is? It doesn't sound like it.
In order to get a transition we need to agree to an open border backstop.
If we agree to an open border backstop then a hard Brexit means an Irish sea border.
No we don't and even May has not said there will be an entirely open border backstop in Ireland, the Chequers Deal and staying in the single market for goods was what was she intended to be the solution to the Irish backstop issue
It doesn't matter what she intends since she backs down every time. She's got the spine of a jellyfish in these negotiations. The EU have been crystal clear: no open border backstop, no transition. May has made clear she won't walk away so that's it. Either she goes or we have an open border backstop.
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal being agreed before March. As the Chequers Deal will effectively be rejected by November the transition deal agreed in November will effectively be the UK stays in the single market and customs union which will then go to the Parliaments and the backstop agreed will therefore be 'hi tech' checks etc at most, otherwise any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP will be precluded
The Chnough.
No, the Chequers Deal has effectively already been rejected by Barnier this week so it will be a BINO transition deal in which we stay in the single market and customs union but almost certainly with no FTA agreed by 2021, likely ultimately leading to hard Brexit though the EU will try and push a permanent transition or reversal of Brexit.
As May will agree to stay in the single market and customs union before the transition period is agreed the precise terms of the backstop will be irrelevant
In order to get a transition we need to agree to an open border backstop.
If we agree to an open border backstop then a hard Brexit means an Irish sea border.
No we don't and even May has not said there will be an entirely open border backstop in Ireland, the Chequers Deal and staying in the single market for goods was what was she intended to be the solution to the Irish backstop issue
Have you not noticed that Chequers has been rejected?
Did you think that if the Chequers deal were accepted it would kick in in March and replace the transition? That's not the case. The status quo transition is happening no matter what if we agree to the withdrawal agreement, even if the EU thought Chequers was marvellous.
Once the transition is in the backstop is in. Then the EU can dictate whatever they want as if we don't agree to their terms it is an Irish sea border. And we have no exit from that.
100% correct - which is why I think that it will never happen. It just can't be sold to the public when they focus on it. I doubt even 10% of the public will support the backstop and the money with no real trade agreement.
It doesn't need to be sold to the public yet, it needs to be sold to Parliament - most of whom are remainers and are petrified of no deal. Once Parliament's agreed to it, its going to be like Lisbon all over again - too late for the public to have a say.
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal being agreed before March. As the Chequers Deal will effectively be rejected by November the transition deal agreed in November will effectively be the UK stays in the single market and customs union which will then go to the Parliaments and the backstop agreed will therefore be 'hi tech' checks etc at most, otherwise any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP will be precluded
The Chnough.
No, the Chequers Deal has effectively already been rejected by Barnier this week so it will be a BINO transition deal in which we stay in the single market and customs union but almost certainly with no FTA agreed by 2021, likely ultimately leading to hard Brexit though the EU will try and push a permanent transition or reversal of Brexit.
As May will agree to stay in the single market and customs union before the transition period is agreed the precise terms of the backstop will be irrelevant
In order to get a transition we need to agree to an open border backstop.
If we agree to an open border backstop then a hard Brexit means an Irish sea border.
No we don't and even May has not said there will be an entirely open border backstop in Ireland, the Chequers Deal and staying in the single market for goods was what was she intended to be the solution to the Irish backstop issue
Do you understand what the backstop is and what its purpose is? It doesn't sound like it.
No, he doesn't.
Anyway, now that we have established that Chequers is dead, can we finally agree that there is no such thing as Soft Brexit?
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal bein precluded
The Chequers Deal can't be agreed before March. There isn't the time, negotiations on a deal would be decided during the transition - by which point the backstop will already be in place. The EU has said that they won't offer a transition without the backstop and hi tech checks aren't enough.
PT is quite correct here. We can all speculate on whether Labour would support or oppose Chequers if May had managed to get this agreed. But if May comes back with just a transition, no real deal on trade, the NI backstop and promises to pay the bill, Labour would be mad to do anything other than oppose and they certainly won't get the blame because 80% of the voters will agree that this is unacceptable. There is just no chance whatsoever that this will get through the HoC.
Remainers are full of it. There has NEVER been a soft Brexit option other than full EEA + CU (eg Remain). The only real options are No Deal, or CETA (and the EU back down on NI).
If May stays, it will be No Deal. If the ERG take over, I think the EU will realise their bluff has been called and agree CETA with no backstop.
A transition period with single market and customs union is not a vote on any deal just kicking the issue into the long grass and only the ERG and Labour Leavers will vote against that.
If you really think the EU are going to cave in and agree CETA for the whole UK and no backstop you are a braver man than me
If a FTA was agreed in full by November and then implemented by March there would be no need for a transition.
A transition is only there to negotiate a trade deal or more likely in our case to prepare for No Deal
While if the Easter Bunny comes out pooping out jelly beans ... what's your point? No FTA can or will be agreed in 2 months. There's no intention of that even, the intention is to get a vague promise to discuss an FTA during the transition - by which point No Deal is ruled out by the backstop.
You can't square a transition with No Deal without putting up an Irish sea border.
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal being agreed before March. As the Chequers Deal will effectively be rejected by November the transition deal agreed in November will effectively be the UK stays in the single market and customs union which will then go to the Parliaments and the backstop agreed will therefore be 'hi tech' checks etc at most, otherwise any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP will be precluded
The Chnough.
No, the Chequers Deal has effectively already been rejected by Barnier this week so it will be a BINO transition deal in which we stay in the single market and customs union but almost certainly with no FTA agreed by 2021, likely ultimately leading to hard Brexit though the EU will try and push a permanent transition or reversal of Brexit.
As May will agree to stay in the single market and customs union before the transition period is agreed the precise terms of the backstop will be irrelevant
In order to get a transition we need to agree to an open border backstop.
If we agree to an open border backstop then a hard Brexit means an Irish sea border.
No we don't and even May has not said there will be an entirely open border backstop in Ireland, the Chequers Deal and staying in the single market for goods was what was she intended to be the solution to the Irish backstop issue
Do you understand what the backstop is and what its purpose is? It doesn't sound like it.
No, he doesn't.
Anyway, now that we have established that Chequers is dead, can we finally agree that there is no such thing as Soft Brexit?
EEA + CU is a Soft Brexit. Its BINO which is as soft as you get.
The EU said at the start its hard Brexit or no Brexit, May has manouevered us to No Brexit [worth its name].
A transition period with single market and customs union is not a vote on any deal just kicking the issue into the long grass and only the ERG and Labour Leavers will vote against that.
That's what the vote pre-March will be about. It's a treaty that contains the settlement on money, citizens' rights, the Irish backstop and the transition. It all comes as a single package. No backstop, no transition. No money, no transition.
Did you think that if the Chequers deal were accepted it would kick in in March and replace the transition? That's not the case. The status quo transition is happening no matter what if we agree to the withdrawal agreement, even if the EU thought Chequers was marvellous.
Once the transition is in the backstop is in. Then the EU can dictate whatever they want as if we don't agree to their terms it is an Irish sea border. And we have no exit from that.
100% correct - which is why I think that it will never happen. It just can't be sold to the public when they focus on it. I doubt even 10% of the public will support the backstop and the money with no real trade agreement.
It doesn't need to be sold to the public yet, it needs to be sold to Parliament - most of whom are remainers and are petrified of no deal. Once Parliament's agreed to it, its going to be like Lisbon all over again - too late for the public to have a say.
I obviously share your lack of trust in Parliament, but turkeys do not usually vote for Christmas. The public will support No Deal over a WA with no trade deal by a wide margin. Labour will never support any such deal (abstain at best), so the Tories would have to commit suicide by voting for such a deal.
Personally I think the ERG are going to wait until the right moment (eg the realisation that Chequers is dead and that the UK and EU are not going to agree anything of value - Oct or Nov) and then no confidence May, and at that point she will lose. At the end of the day all politicians really care about is their own seat. Chequers, if agreed by the EU, might have been sellable by 2022. But a no trade deal WA is an impossible sell.
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal being agreed before March. As the Chequers Deal will effectively be rejected by November the transition deal agreed in November will effectively be the UK stays in the single market and customs union which will then go to the Parliaments and the backstop agreed will therefore be 'hi tech' checks etc at most, otherwise any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP will be precluded
The Chnough.
No, the Chequers Deal has effectively already been rejected by Barnier this week so it will be a BINO transition deal in which we stay in the single market and customs union but almost certainly with no FTA agreed by 2021, likely ultimately leading to hard Brexit though the EU will try and push a permanent transition or reversal of Brexit.
As May will agree to stay in the single market and customs union before the transition period is agreed the precise terms of the backstop will be irrelevant
In order to get a transition we need to agree to an open border backstop.
If we agree to an open border backstop then a hard Brexit means an Irish sea border.
No we don't and even May has not said there will be an entirely open border backstop in Ireland, the Chequers Deal and staying in the single market for goods was what was she intended to be the solution to the Irish backstop issue
Do you understand what the backstop is and what its purpose is? It doesn't sound like it.
No, he doesn't.
Anyway, now that we have established that Chequers is dead, can we finally agree that there is no such thing as Soft Brexit?
EEA + CU is a Soft Brexit. Its BINO which is as soft as you get.
The EU said at the start its hard Brexit or no Brexit, May has manouevered us to No Brexit [worth its name].
Well I would obviously categorise EEA + CU as remaining, not any form of Brexit! But yes, you are right, Hard Brexit was always the only form of Brexit available.
Did you think that if the Chequers deal were accepted it would kick in in March and replace the transition? That's not the case. The status quo transition is happening no matter what if we agree to the withdrawal agreement, even if the EU thought Chequers was marvellous.
Once the transition is in the backstop is in. Then the EU can dictate whatever they want as if we don't agree to their terms it is an Irish sea border. And we have no exit from that.
100% correct - which is why I think that it will never happen. It just can't be sold to the public when they focus on it. I doubt even 10% of the public will support the backstop and the money with no real trade agreement.
It doesn't need to be sold to the public yet, it needs to be sold to Parliament - most of whom are remainers and are petrified of no deal. Once Parliament's agreed to it, its going to be like Lisbon all over again - too late for the public to have a say.
I obviously share your lack of trust in Parliament, but turkeys do not usually vote for Christmas. The public will support No Deal over a WA with no trade deal by a wide margin. Labour will never support any such deal (abstain at best), so the Tories would have to commit suicide by voting for such a deal.
Personally I think the ERG are going to wait until the right moment (eg the realisation that Chequers is dead and that the UK and EU are not going to agree anything of value - Oct or Nov) and then no confidence May, and at that point she will lose. At the end of the day all politicians really care about is their own seat. Chequers, if agreed by the EU, might have been sellable by 2022. But a no trade deal WA is an impossible sell.
Enough in Labour (Umunma etc) would vote for that. Plus being cynical if that destroys trust in the Tories (since it will be the Tories who will be blamed once how bad a deal it is, is recognised) then that's good for Labour.
If Labour abstain then May carries it by a long margin. Unless she gets no confidenced first.
A transition period with single market and customs union is not a vote on any deal just kicking the issue into the long grass and only the ERG and Labour Leavers will vote against that.
If you really think the EU are going to cave in and agree CETA for the whole UK and no backstop you are a braver man than me
I am absolutely sure that I am a braver man than you....I would have no issue with No Deal for example, so really it is up to the EU - CETA now and a soft NI border; or No Deal now, a soft NI border and then CETA later.
The most critical issue that needs to be remembered is that the EU will get a soft NI border anyway if we end up with No Deal.
At which point they have achieved nothing but their leverage is gone. We would have the money, the NI border will be soft ipso facto and whatever pain we were going to get from No Deal would be incurred. We would then be able to do CETA at our leisure - we would simply say that once it is ratified we will pay the Brexit bill. If May was not a jellyfish, as PT says, she would be shouting this from the rooftops.
Did you think that if the Chequers deal were accepted it would kick in in March and replace the transition? That's not the case. The status quo transition is happening no matter what if we agree to the withdrawal agreement, even if the EU thought Chequers was marvellous.
Once the transition is in the backstop is in. Then the EU can dictate whatever they want as if we don't agree to their terms it is an Irish sea border. And we have no exit from that.
100% correct - which is why I think that it will never happen. It just can't be sold to the public when they focus on it. I doubt even 10% of the public will support the backstop and the money with no real trade agreement.
It doesn't need to be sold to the public yet, it needs to be sold to Parliament - most of whom are remainers and are petrified of no deal. Once Parliament's agreed to it, its going to be like Lisbon all over again - too late for the public to have a say.
I obviously share your lack of trust in Parliament, but turkeys do not usually vote for Christmas. The public will support No Deal over a WA with no trade deal by a wide margin. Labour will never support any such deal (abstain at best), so the Tories would have to commit suicide by voting for such a deal.
Personally I think the ERG are going to wait until the right moment (eg the realisation that Chequers is dead and that the UK and EU are not going to agree anything of value - Oct or Nov) and then no confidence May, and at that point she will lose. At the end of the day all politicians really care about is their own seat. Chequers, if agreed by the EU, might have been sellable by 2022. But a no trade deal WA is an impossible sell.
Enough in Labour (Umunma etc) would vote for that. Plus being cynical if that destroys trust in the Tories (since it will be the Tories who will be blamed once how bad a deal it is, is recognised) then that's good for Labour.
If Labour abstain then May carries it by a long margin. Unless she gets no confidenced first.
One big advantage May has is timing. She can string out the 'negotiations' as long as necessary until she thinks the balance of votes is tilting the right way.
At which point they have achieved nothing but their leverage is gone. We would have the money, the NI border will be soft ipso facto and whatever pain we were going to get from No Deal would be incurred.
You're assuming the pain would be manageable. In fact you'd be handing enormous leverage to cut the UK out of the single market in a strategic way, in their own time, in order to minimise disruption for them and maximise pain for the UK.
If a FTA was agreed in full by November and then implemented by March there would be no need for a transition.
A transition is only there to negotiate a trade deal or more likely in our case to prepare for No Deal
While if the Easter Bunny comes out pooping out jelly beans ... what's your point? No FTA can or will be agreed in 2 months. There's no intention of that even, the intention is to get a vague promise to discuss an FTA during the transition - by which point No Deal is ruled out by the backstop.
You can't square a transition with No Deal without putting up an Irish sea border.
No it is not, May has not agreed any open border backstop, even Chequers required the single market for goods backstop, not an open border backstop. Any No Deal would only occur after a transition failed to produce a FTA
No, no confusion about it. Once the BINO transition ends so does the backstop agreed as no Deal was agreed
Oh dear... When the penny drops you will rapidly change your position on this.
No I won't, once fully out of the EU after the transition period expires and with the EEC Treaty fully repealed Westminster will once again be fully sovereign and can do what it likes.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
The backstop would be enshrined in the withdrawal agreement. It will form part of an international treaty between us and the EU and there will be no exit clause from it.
And it will not be an open border backstop as I set out below
May has already said it will be. Unless she rejects the transition of May gets her deal that will be it. May has to go now to prevent it. After March is too late.
Only on the basis of the Chequers Deal being agreed before March. As the Chequers Deal will effectively be rejected by November the transition deal agreed in November will effectively be the UK stays in the single market and customs union which will then go to the Parliaments and the backstop agreed will therefore be 'hi tech' checks etc at most, otherwise any Canada+ Deal acceptable to the DUP will be precluded
The Chnough.
No, the Chequers Deal has effectively alreatop will be irrelevant
In order to get a transition we need to agree to an open border backstop.
If we agree to an open border backstop then a hard Brexit means an Irish sea border.
No we don't and even May has not said there will be an entirely open border backstop in Ireland, the Chequers Deal and staying in the single market for goods was what was she intended to be the solution to the Irish backstop issue
Do you understand what the backstop is and what its purpose is? It doesn't sound like it.
The backstop is nothing but a demand from the EU for some commitment from the UK to avoid a hard border in Ireland, nothing more, nothing less, how it is implemented is still entirely up in the air
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We shall not be moved...
Time to wish everyone a pleasant nights rest
Good night folks
Anyone who wants a UK-wide hard Brexit has to push for No Deal in March.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/facebook-whatsapp-and-instagram-down-users-across-the-world-report-problems-with-social-media-and-a3926826.html
Either Facebook group has been attacked or somebody has made a massive booboo to have all 3 of their services go down.
Therefore if we have Canada+ at the end of 2020, it will mean the backstop will kick in and the customs border will be in the Irish sea.
Your scenario one of the few that isn’t a possibility.
There will be no Canada+ at the end of 2020 as Barnier will not agree to it applying to Ireland which May and Unionists and the DUP will not accept
One thing is for certain, Corbyn is no Harry Perkins.
The Good Friday Agreement is effectively dead anyway and has been since Sinn Fein pulled out of the Stormont Executive
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6127657/British-actress-Jacqueline-Pearce-starred-Blake-7-Doctor-dies-lung-cancer-aged-74.html
Unless the EU backs off, it will face PM Boris. He is positioning himself to be the No Deal Brexit PM.
Over to you, EU.....
https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/die-hard-6-title-mcclane-exclusive/
Once the transition is agreed with a backstop it's too late to reverse it. We then either sign a BINO open border deal for the whole UK ... or have an Irish sea border. There will be no alternative because we will have already agreed by treaty to the backstop.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/03/britain-sliding-chaos-politicians-have-forgotten-compromise/
Mogg has been quite clear Canada+ is viable but it requires the EU to compromise on the Irish border which it won't
It has been made quite clear now that there is no link agreed between the money and a trade agreement. May will try to sign the withdrawal agreement and then immediately the EU will simply rely on the NI backstop and never agree to the Chequers trade agreement - easy!
No wonder everyone realises Chequers is dead. Leavers have a plan - CETA. What is the Remainers plan now....?
Plus, in any event, the NI backstop is and has always been about increasing the EU's negotiating leverage, not about any real problem. The EU simply want to be able to use the NI backstop to get what they want in advance of the trade negotiation starting so that they can renege on any promises they have made in the 'political declaration'. So on that basis alone it can never be agreed.
CETA is unacceptable to the DUP so will not get through as Barnier refuses to allow it to be applied in Northern Ireland
It is poking its nose in the sectarian hornets nest of Northern Irish politics purely to advance its own ends, CETA could be applied quite easily to Northern Ireland without any major border problems and in any case Sinn Fein have effectively collapsed the GFA by refusing to participate in the Stormont Executive anyway
https://twitter.com/78SoylentGreen/status/1036658536779055104
We invoked article 50 which gave us 2 years notice - now you are basically telling us we need to pay 40bn which we don't legally owe for another two years (before we exit with no deal then) because May and the Tories were too useless to deal with reality and get ready for no deal now? Good luck explaining that at the next election. You might be the only Tory voter left.
Barnier simply needs to be told, as the real Tory JRM just told him, that the NI backstop is not acceptable and the EU have a simple choice - CETA now and no backstop, or no deal (and no doubt CETA later because the NI border issue solves itself after no deal).
I was right.
The best solution for the Tories is probably to agree BINO, show how obstinate the EU is when it yet again refuses to agree a deal, ensure the transition period allows enough time for business to prepare for No Deal then go to No Deal just before the next general election before much economic damage has been done and to ensure it can show its voters it has delivered the Brexit it voted for.
If Barnier concedes CETA he concedes the EU's plan to use the backstop as a way to force the UK back into the Single Market, the Customs Union and the EU by the backdoor. There is no economic logic to their position (CETA for the whole UK would be fine for that), it is pure ideology and politics
https://www.ft.com/content/567887ce-7b8e-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475
(Enter title of article into Google to get round paywall).
A bit harsh to be devalued for making contingency plans!
Veterinary pharma demand won't deminish after brexit, unless we have to eat all the horses, dogs and cats.
Might be a bounce up in the morning?
As May will agree to stay in the single market and customs union before the transition period is agreed the precise terms of the backstop will be irrelevant
Or simply Backstop -> BINO = Remain just not in name.
If we agree to an open border backstop then a hard Brexit means an Irish sea border.
Remainers are full of it. There has NEVER been a soft Brexit option other than full EEA + CU (eg Remain). The only real options are No Deal, or CETA (and the EU back down on NI).
If May stays, it will be No Deal. If the ERG take over, I think the EU will realise their bluff has been called and agree CETA with no backstop.
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Workers from South Africa’s mainly-white Solidarity union staged a go-slow protest at the petrochemicals firm Sasol on Monday over a share scheme offered exclusively to black staff, and said they would begin a full strike on Thursday."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sasol-strike/in-south-africa-white-sasol-workers-protest-against-black-share-scheme-idUSKCN1LJ0QM
If May stays it will be full EEA + CU. Brexit in name only.
If May goes I agree the EU will realise their bluff has been called. But I don't trust Parliament to call their bluff.
A transition is only there to negotiate a trade deal or more likely in our case to prepare for No Deal
Anyway, now that we have established that Chequers is dead, can we finally agree that there is no such thing as Soft Brexit?
If you really think the EU are going to cave in and agree CETA for the whole UK and no backstop you are a braver man than me
You can't square a transition with No Deal without putting up an Irish sea border.
The EU said at the start its hard Brexit or no Brexit, May has manouevered us to No Brexit [worth its name].
That's what the vote pre-March will be about. It's a treaty that contains the settlement on money, citizens' rights, the Irish backstop and the transition. It all comes as a single package. No backstop, no transition. No money, no transition.
Personally I think the ERG are going to wait until the right moment (eg the realisation that Chequers is dead and that the UK and EU are not going to agree anything of value - Oct or Nov) and then no confidence May, and at that point she will lose. At the end of the day all politicians really care about is their own seat. Chequers, if agreed by the EU, might have been sellable by 2022. But a no trade deal WA is an impossible sell.
If Labour abstain then May carries it by a long margin. Unless she gets no confidenced first.
The most critical issue that needs to be remembered is that the EU will get a soft NI border anyway if we end up with No Deal.
At which point they have achieved nothing but their leverage is gone. We would have the money, the NI border will be soft ipso facto and whatever pain we were going to get from No Deal would be incurred. We would then be able to do CETA at our leisure - we would simply say that once it is ratified we will pay the Brexit bill. If May was not a jellyfish, as PT says, she would be shouting this from the rooftops.