For all the vitriol in Australian politics that is a remarkably gracious tribute.
I may be being unfair, but I wonder if he has an eye to the sort of Leftish liberal vote in an election that has to be held within a year and may be held very quickly.
Julie Bishop (64%) cf. Bill Shorten (36%). Malcolm Turnbull (54%) cf. Bill Shorten (46%). Bill Shorten (50.5%) cf. Scott Morrison (49.5%). Bill Shorten (62%) cf. Peter Dutton (38%).
Looks like the Liberals had a narrow escape with Dutton (and missed opportunity with Bishop?)
Yes, Shorten would likely have trounced Dutton, Bishop could well have beaten Shorten. Morrison v Shorten next year though could be close, Shorten will be favourite but Morrison clearly has a chance to make a contest of it at least.
Morrison was the unity candidate, loyal enough to Turnbull while being enough of a conservative to present a change to the Abbott led hard right faction who had backed Dutton
Mr. Sandpit, cheers for that. Also, there's a Ladbrokes market for the drivers' title, excluding the top six. Not sure if I'll bet on that, as it's quite tight.
A positive from the Brexit vote is that it provided a marvellous opportunity for different parts of society to understand each others lives. The anger and frustration felt by some who wanted to maintain the status quo are the same emotions that motivated many to vote to Leave. It is probably the closest, outside of illness and bereavement, that comfortably off people will get to understanding what it is like to be genuinely powerless.
It strikes me as surprising that more people who voted to Remain don't pause for thought on what people's lives must be like to make them vote in a way that they find so distasteful, rather than dismiss them as bad people.
' It is the same snobbery that caused an eminent art critic to recently opine on Radio 4 that he hadn’t seen a few Caravaggios being shown off in a London exhibition – because they had been “hidden away in places like Hull and Preston”. They might as well have been on the moon, though he would no doubt have seen them had they been hung in Florence or Paris. '
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It wasn't clear to me; I threw the towel in on the Tuesday before EUref - there's a post on here to that effect. But I guess we're all wise after the event.
I was wise before the event and would, if it weren't a gargantuan task, scroll back and find my post pre-referendum which explained just that. I remember that I was having an exchange with @SouthamObserver and we both agreed that Remain had lost it as the anti-foreigner momentum was just overwhelming.
Lol Mogg's suits are always about 3 sizes too big.
Perhaps they got mixed up at the tailor's with Nicholas Soames's.
JRM should do what Alexei Sayle said he did when he had his suits made: have them made so they fit perfectly then ask the tailor to take it in two inches all round.
A positive from the Brexit vote is that it provided a marvellous opportunity for different parts of society to understand each others lives. The anger and frustration felt by some who wanted to maintain the status quo are the same emotions that motivated many to vote to Leave. It is probably the closest, outside of illness and bereavement, that comfortably off people will get to understanding what it is like to be genuinely powerless.
It strikes me as surprising that more people who voted to Remain don't pause for thought on what people's lives must be like to make them vote in a way that they find so distasteful, rather than dismiss them as bad people.
' It is the same snobbery that caused an eminent art critic to recently opine on Radio 4 that he hadn’t seen a few Caravaggios being shown off in a London exhibition – because they had been “hidden away in places like Hull and Preston”. They might as well have been on the moon, though he would no doubt have seen them had they been hung in Florence or Paris. '
Snobbery no doubt but there is a practical consideration that in London, Florence or Paris, they'd have been amongst lots of similar paintings as opposed to being scattered and isolated. It would be different if all the Caravaggios were in Preston rather than just one or two. Clustering is important for scholars and tourists alike, not just snobs on the wireless.
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
Lol Mogg's suits are always about 3 sizes too big.
Perhaps they got mixed up at the tailor's with Nicholas Soames's.
JRM should do what Alexei Sayle said he did when he had his suits made: have them made so they fit perfectly then ask the tailor to take it in two inches all round.
I manage to perfect that look in a couple of months without putting the tailor to the extra trouble.
Sir Nicholas is just jealous there is someone posher than him in the Commons
Oh I think the grandson of Winston Churchill, son of Lord & Lady Soames former equerry to the Prince of Wales, Privy Counsellor and Knight of the Realm is quite a bit posher than the fifth son of the editor of The Times.....how ever much he puts on airs & graces.....
Sir Nicholas is just jealous there is someone posher than him in the Commons
Oh I think the grandson of Winston Churchill, son of Lord & Lady Soames former equerry to the Prince of Wales, Privy Counsellor and Knight of the Realm is quite a bit posher than the fifth son of the editor of The Times.....how ever much he puts on airs & graces.....
*sniffs haughtily* Mogg is *trade* darling. Totally non-U.
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
It would appear that non EU imiigration is still increasing.
Taking a leaf out of OGH's book, I look at the popularity of Brexit similarly to net leader favourability ratings. If we view the poll similarly to asking us if we had a favourable / unfavourable view of Brexit, then the poll would be at -56 for favourability with Labour voters (ignoring don't knows). Now:
Favourability = f1(Like of Policy) + f2(Like of party doing policy) + f3(Like of how policy being done)
I suspect that LibDebs are strongly negative on f1, Labour and SNP voters are strongly negative on f2 and almost all voters are negative on f3.
What the poll refers to may therefore reflect a real visceral dislike of the Tories and the messy way Brexit is being handled rather than a definite dislike of the policy. There will be some buyer's regret, but we don't really know how much.
Sir Nicholas is just jealous there is someone posher than him in the Commons
Oh I think the grandson of Winston Churchill, son of Lord & Lady Soames former equerry to the Prince of Wales, Privy Counsellor and Knight of the Realm is quite a bit posher than the fifth son of the editor of The Times.....how ever much he puts on airs & graces.....
Jacob Rees Mogg has a net worth of over £100 million and went to Oxford as well as Eton, Soames just went to Eton. His wife's family also has a stately home even if not quite as grand as Blenheim but of course Soames is now only distantly related to the Duke and Duchess of Marlborough
I'm always confused by the arguments that we'll get the same or better deals outside the EU than inside. That trade deals will just "roll over". I live under the assumption that we have the somewhat good trade deals we have because the terms are negotiated in bulk, so we can benefit from other economies strengths and put our own strengths to bolster our EU partners. So our deal with NZ may be based on stuff they want from Italy or Poland, so we get the benefit of their desire for their goods, rather than the fact that they don't need much from us and are in competition with us on goods like lamb. So when I increasingly see people say WTO won't be that bad, or "so and so country" will "roll-over" the deal I don't see why.
Why would Canada treat the UK the same as the EU when our economy is different and they may not get the same benefits of that deal than before? Why would the US? Indeed, the US don't like the terms and want to force the UK to worse terms than when we were in the EU; if our supposed "special relationship" means a worse deal and challenges at the WTO what can we expect from others?
Taking a leaf out of OGH's book, I look at the popularity of Brexit similarly to net leader favourability ratings. If we view the poll similarly to asking us if we had a favourable / unfavourable view of Brexit, then the poll would be at -56 for favourability with Labour voters (ignoring don't knows). Now:
Favourability = f1(Like of Policy) + f2(Like of party doing policy) + f3(Like of how policy being done)
I suspect that LibDebs are strongly negative on f1, Labour and SNP voters are strongly negative on f2 and almost all voters are negative on f3.
What the poll refers to may therefore reflect a real visceral dislike of the Tories and the messy way Brexit is being handled rather than a definite dislike of the policy. There will be some buyer's regret, but we don't really know how much.
No one much is changing their mind. Dying voters are disproportionately Leave, new voters are disproportionately Remain. By and large everyone else is holding to their point of view for now. There are straws in the wind that suggest that some Leavers are having qualms (there was a poll a while back that showed that Brexit pessimists far outweighed Brexit optimists) but few have so far have had Damascene conversions.
Mr. Sandpit, cheers for that. Also, there's a Ladbrokes market for the drivers' title, excluding the top six. Not sure if I'll bet on that, as it's quite tight.
That’s a good market, although sadly I don’t have a Ladbrokes account that works any more. Three drivers within a few points and wide open behind that. Maybe a couple of quid on Alonso to go out on a high?
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
Nope. It was the lack of transition controls from 2004 to 2011 which saw UKIP rise from 6% and 3 MEPs at the 1999 Euro elections to 15% and 12 MEPs at the 2004 Euro elections and 16% and 13 MEPs at the 2009 Euro elections and 27% and 24 MEPs at the 2014 Euro elections. It was of course the rise of UKIP which led Cameron to call the EU referendum in the first place to try and keep Tory Leavers from defecting. Non-EU migration would have had exactly the same border controls applied to it transition controls or no transition controls from the Eastern European accession nations.
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
It would appear that non EU imiigration is still increasing.
As with so much these days due to 24hr news and social media, it is the appearance of immigration rather than the reality that drives the argument. It doesn't matter where immigrants come from, what matters is the perceived rate of immigration. Net inflows in the 200-300k p.a. level eventually pushed it to the top of the social issues scale, which is strange because most parts of the country have very low rates of immigration. We need effective immigration control to manage the perception, pushing it back down the scale. It's as if the general public only have so much attention and concentrate on things which they think are a problem: you are seen to manage the problem and they stop thinking about it.
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
Nope. It was the lack of transition controls from 2004 to 2011 which saw UKIP rise from 6% and 3 MEPs at the 1999 Euro elections to 15% and 12 MEPs at the 2004 Euro elections and 16% and 13 MEPs at the 2009 Euro elections and 27% and 24 MEPs at the 2014 Euro elections. Non-EU migration would have had exactly the same border controls applied to it transition controls or no transition controls from the Eastern European accession nations.
We needed the workers; one way or another they would most likely have arrived.
Taking a leaf out of OGH's book, I look at the popularity of Brexit similarly to net leader favourability ratings. If we view the poll similarly to asking us if we had a favourable / unfavourable view of Brexit, then the poll would be at -56 for favourability with Labour voters (ignoring don't knows). Now:
Favourability = f1(Like of Policy) + f2(Like of party doing policy) + f3(Like of how policy being done)
I suspect that LibDebs are strongly negative on f1, Labour and SNP voters are strongly negative on f2 and almost all voters are negative on f3.
What the poll refers to may therefore reflect a real visceral dislike of the Tories and the messy way Brexit is being handled rather than a definite dislike of the policy. There will be some buyer's regret, but we don't really know how much.
Hard to find many Lib Debs to poll nowadays, or even Tory Debs.
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
It would appear that non EU imiigration is still increasing.
About 180 000 in the last year, mostly from Asia and Africa, perhaps even Turkey...
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
Nope. It was the lack of transition controls from 2004 to 2011 which saw UKIP rise from 6% and 3 MEPs at the 1999 Euro elections to 15% and 12 MEPs at the 2004 Euro elections and 16% and 13 MEPs at the 2009 Euro elections and 27% and 24 MEPs at the 2014 Euro elections. Non-EU migration would have had exactly the same border controls applied to it transition controls or no transition controls from the Eastern European accession nations.
Why does non-EU migration fluctuate up and down and why is it going up at the moment?
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
Nope. It was the lack of transition controls from 2004 to 2011 which saw UKIP rise from 6% and 3 MEPs at the 1999 Euro elections to 15% and 12 MEPs at the 2004 Euro elections and 16% and 13 MEPs at the 2009 Euro elections and 27% and 24 MEPs at the 2014 Euro elections. Non-EU migration would have had exactly the same border controls applied to it transition controls or no transition controls from the Eastern European accession nations.
We needed the workers; one way or another they would most likely have arrived.
Is the work disproportionately in Newham (Always top of the extra-national migration inflows..) ?
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
It would appear that non EU imiigration is still increasing.
Non EU is 85% of the World population so should be expected to be the greater proportion of immigrants.
Taking a leaf out of OGH's book, I look at the popularity of Brexit similarly to net leader favourability ratings. If we view the poll similarly to asking us if we had a favourable / unfavourable view of Brexit, then the poll would be at -56 for favourability with Labour voters (ignoring don't knows). Now:
Favourability = f1(Like of Policy) + f2(Like of party doing policy) + f3(Like of how policy being done)
I suspect that LibDebs are strongly negative on f1, Labour and SNP voters are strongly negative on f2 and almost all voters are negative on f3.
What the poll refers to may therefore reflect a real visceral dislike of the Tories and the messy way Brexit is being handled rather than a definite dislike of the policy. There will be some buyer's regret, but we don't really know how much.
No one much is changing their mind. Dying voters are disproportionately Leave, new voters are disproportionately Remain. By and large everyone else is holding to their point of view for now. There are straws in the wind that suggest that some Leavers are having qualms (there was a poll a while back that showed that Brexit pessimists far outweighed Brexit optimists) but few have so far have had Damascene conversions.
You're probably right that the referendum and its aftermath have solidified views and stopped the trend for people to become more anti as they get older. The gradual shift toward Remain in the polls most likely reflects actuarial wastage of the leave vote.
Sir Nicholas is just jealous there is someone posher than him in the Commons
Oh I think the grandson of Winston Churchill, son of Lord & Lady Soames former equerry to the Prince of Wales, Privy Counsellor and Knight of the Realm is quite a bit posher than the fifth son of the editor of The Times.....how ever much he puts on airs & graces.....
Soames just went to Eton
Then was commissioned as an officer in the 11th Hussars and the Royal Hussars, serving in both Britain & Germany.
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
Nope. It was the lack of transition controls from 2004 to 2011 which saw UKIP rise from 6% and 3 MEPs at the 1999 Euro elections to 15% and 12 MEPs at the 2004 Euro elections and 16% and 13 MEPs at the 2009 Euro elections and 27% and 24 MEPs at the 2014 Euro elections. Non-EU migration would have had exactly the same border controls applied to it transition controls or no transition controls from the Eastern European accession nations.
We needed the workers; one way or another they would most likely have arrived.
Is the work disproportionately in Newham (Always top of the extra-national migration inflows..) ?
A very large amount of the work is in London, and for London Newham is a cheap place to live.
Sir Nicholas is just jealous there is someone posher than him in the Commons
Oh I think the grandson of Winston Churchill, son of Lord & Lady Soames former equerry to the Prince of Wales, Privy Counsellor and Knight of the Realm is quite a bit posher than the fifth son of the editor of The Times.....how ever much he puts on airs & graces.....
Jacob Rees Mogg has a net worth of over £100 million and went to Oxford as well as Eton, Soames just went to Eton. His wife's family also has a stately home even if not quite as grand as Blenheim but of course Soames is now only distantly related to the Duke and Duchess of Marlborough
Sir Nicholas is just jealous there is someone posher than him in the Commons
Oh I think the grandson of Winston Churchill, son of Lord & Lady Soames former equerry to the Prince of Wales, Privy Counsellor and Knight of the Realm is quite a bit posher than the fifth son of the editor of The Times.....how ever much he puts on airs & graces.....
*sniffs haughtily* Mogg is *trade* darling. Totally non-U.
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
Nope. It was the lack of transition controls from 2004 to 2011 which saw UKIP rise from 6% and 3 MEPs at the 1999 Euro elections to 15% and 12 MEPs at the 2004 Euro elections and 16% and 13 MEPs at the 2009 Euro elections and 27% and 24 MEPs at the 2014 Euro elections. Non-EU migration would have had exactly the same border controls applied to it transition controls or no transition controls from the Eastern European accession nations.
We needed the workers; one way or another they would most likely have arrived.
The economy grew nicely in the 80s and 90s with no net migration to speak of. Remember these claims?
Mr. Sandpit, not sure about that. McLaren's performance, after a solid start, had a serious droop and they're now behind Renault and Haas, and maybe Force India too.
Taking a leaf out of OGH's book, I look at the popularity of Brexit similarly to net leader favourability ratings. If we view the poll similarly to asking us if we had a favourable / unfavourable view of Brexit, then the poll would be at -56 for favourability with Labour voters (ignoring don't knows). Now:
Favourability = f1(Like of Policy) + f2(Like of party doing policy) + f3(Like of how policy being done)
I suspect that LibDebs are strongly negative on f1, Labour and SNP voters are strongly negative on f2 and almost all voters are negative on f3.
What the poll refers to may therefore reflect a real visceral dislike of the Tories and the messy way Brexit is being handled rather than a definite dislike of the policy. There will be some buyer's regret, but we don't really know how much.
No one much is changing their mind. Dying voters are disproportionately Leave, new voters are disproportionately Remain. By and large everyone else is holding to their point of view for now. There are straws in the wind that suggest that some Leavers are having qualms (there was a poll a while back that showed that Brexit pessimists far outweighed Brexit optimists) but few have so far have had Damascene conversions.
You're probably right that the referendum and its aftermath have solidified views and stopped the trend for people to become more anti as they get older. The gradual shift toward Remain in the polls most likely reflects actuarial wastage of the leave vote.
Perhaps one of the reasons that Brexit advocates end up driven to extremes is that it becomes progressively clear that every real-world version of Brexit will not give people what they wanted, so to keep alive the fantasy they have to pretend there's always an easier option.
The real moment of truth will come when No Deal is taken off the table by the force of reality. Will people who currently favour it think "I suppose Chequers isn't so bad after all" or will they think "We'd be better off staying in the EU than any of this".
Taking a leaf out of OGH's book, I look at the popularity of Brexit similarly to net leader favourability ratings. If we view the poll similarly to asking us if we had a favourable / unfavourable view of Brexit, then the poll would be at -56 for favourability with Labour voters (ignoring don't knows). Now:
Favourability = f1(Like of Policy) + f2(Like of party doing policy) + f3(Like of how policy being done)
I suspect that LibDebs are strongly negative on f1, Labour and SNP voters are strongly negative on f2 and almost all voters are negative on f3.
What the poll refers to may therefore reflect a real visceral dislike of the Tories and the messy way Brexit is being handled rather than a definite dislike of the policy. There will be some buyer's regret, but we don't really know how much.
No one much is changing their mind. Dying voters are disproportionately Leave, new voters are disproportionately Remain. By and large everyone else is holding to their point of view for now. There are straws in the wind that suggest that some Leavers are having qualms (there was a poll a while back that showed that Brexit pessimists far outweighed Brexit optimists) but few have so far have had Damascene conversions.
I actually agree with you. Those of my friends and colleagues who talk about this are definitely more entrenched. I therefore think that the poll above reflects an increasingly negative view of how the government are coping, rather than buyer's regret. I suspect that the spin on polls like this are that people want to reverse the vote, which I am not convinced about - that was the point I was trying to make.
I have sympathy for those involved in the negotiations as they have to do so in a febrile atmosphere with more leaks than a colander. Can anyone achieve a sensible outcome in these circumstances?
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
Nope. It was the lack of transition controls from 2004 to 2011 which saw UKIP rise from 6% and 3 MEPs at the 1999 Euro elections to 15% and 12 MEPs at the 2004 Euro elections and 16% and 13 MEPs at the 2009 Euro elections and 27% and 24 MEPs at the 2014 Euro elections. Non-EU migration would have had exactly the same border controls applied to it transition controls or no transition controls from the Eastern European accession nations.
We needed the workers; one way or another they would most likely have arrived.
We didn't, we ended up taking far too many workers for the low skilled work available and slashing wages for the native born low skilled. The growth in jobs is in higher skilled jobs, low skilled work is stagnant if not declining
I defy anyone, whether filthy Remainer or plucky Brexiteer, to come away after reading 'All Out War' thinking the Remain campaigns were well organised, lucid and coherent. However, fish rot from the head down. At root, Cameron thought the result was in the bag and left it to his incompetent minions to fuck it up.
Who regardless had no comeback when Leave played the foreigner card.
It was clear that Leave would win when, on the Daily Politics on 20th June 2016 Nick Herbert had no answer to Kate Hoey when challenged about immigration were we to stay in the EU.
That is wot won it.
Buses be damned.
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
Nope. It was the lack of transition controls from 2004 to 2011 which saw UKIP rise from 6% and 3 MEPs at the 1999 Euro elections to 15% and 12 MEPs at the 2004 Euro elections and 16% and 13 MEPs at the 2009 Euro elections and 27% and 24 MEPs at the 2014 Euro elections. Non-EU migration would have had exactly the same border controls applied to it transition controls or no transition controls from the Eastern European accession nations.
Why does non-EU migration fluctuate up and down and why is it going up at the moment?
Net migration is still below 2015 levels and more non-EU migrants come to study not to work unlike EU migrants where more come to work
It was Blair's failure to follow most of the rest of the EU in imposing transition controls for 7 years in 2004 on free movement from the new accession countries and Cameron's complete failure to get even a token concession from the EU on free movement (something akin to the 'Vow' of the No campaign in 2014 and the resultant 2016 Scotland Act) which doomed the Remain campaign from the start.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
Nope. It was the lack of transition controls from 2004 to 2011 which saw UKIP rise from 6% and 3 MEPs at the 1999 Euro elections to 15% and 12 MEPs at the 2004 Euro elections and 16% and 13 MEPs at the 2009 Euro elections and 27% and 24 MEPs at the 2014 Euro elections. Non-EU migration would have had exactly the same border controls applied to it transition controls or no transition controls from the Eastern European accession nations.
We needed the workers; one way or another they would most likely have arrived.
We didn't, we ended up taking far too many workers for the low skilled work available and slashing wages for the native born low skilled. The growth in jobs is in higher skilled jobs, low skilled work is stagnant if not declining
Just wait for AI to land. Most people worry about Robots. Nope - cheap labour will be able to compete. The real change will be in the professions. Data analysis and machine learning will mean that lots of jobs that rely on case review and interpretation will become increasingly supported by AI systems (medicine, law, accountancy, banking, etc) meaning that you don't need as many highly paid professionals to service your client base. If you are a professional in those sectors, you will see more change in the next 20 years than in the last 200.
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
You're assuming too much rationality. If Blair had imposed transition controls it's possible non-EU migration would have been even higher leading to immigration being even more of an issue and ending in a bigger Leave win.
Nope. It was the lack of transition controls from 2004 to 2011 which saw UKIP rise from 6% and 3 MEPs at the 1999 Euro elections to 15% and 12 MEPs at the 2004 Euro elections and 16% and 13 MEPs at the 2009 Euro elections and 27% and 24 MEPs at the 2014 Euro elections. Non-EU migration would have had exactly the same border controls applied to it transition controls or no transition controls from the Eastern European accession nations.
We needed the workers; one way or another they would most likely have arrived.
We didn't, we ended up taking far too many workers for the low skilled work available and slashing wages for the native born low skilled. The growth in jobs is in higher skilled jobs, low skilled work is stagnant if not declining
Just wait for AI to land. Most people worry about Robots. Nope - cheap labour will be able to compete. The real change will be in the professions. Data analysis and machine learning will mean that lots of jobs that rely on case review and interpretation will become increasingly supported by AI systems (medicine, law, accountancy, banking, etc) meaning that you don't need as many highly paid professionals to service your client base. If you are a professional in those sectors, you will see more change in the next 20 years than in the last 200.
Artificial Intelligence has been used since the 1970s. It's not new, it's already happened.
For example I introduced computer generated credit scoring for a bank in 1977. Half the loan applications were judged by credit officers and half by the computer generated credit score we had developed. After six months the resulting bad debt experience showed credit scoring to be far superior to the experienced credit officers and the credit officers were dispensed with.
Comments
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1032893615394238464
Morrison was the unity candidate, loyal enough to Turnbull while being enough of a conservative to present a change to the Abbott led hard right faction who had backed Dutton
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/09/northerners-voting-brexit-north-south
Without those factors I think it would have been a repeat of indyref2014 and about 55% Remain and 45% Leave
Favourability = f1(Like of Policy) + f2(Like of party doing policy) + f3(Like of how policy being done)
I suspect that LibDebs are strongly negative on f1, Labour and SNP voters are strongly negative on f2 and almost all voters are negative on f3.
What the poll refers to may therefore reflect a real visceral dislike of the Tories and the messy way Brexit is being handled rather than a definite dislike of the policy. There will be some buyer's regret, but we don't really know how much.
https://www.ft.com/content/d5efd3a0-b32f-11e6-a37c-f4a01f1b0fa1
Why would Canada treat the UK the same as the EU when our economy is different and they may not get the same benefits of that deal than before? Why would the US? Indeed, the US don't like the terms and want to force the UK to worse terms than when we were in the EU; if our supposed "special relationship" means a worse deal and challenges at the WTO what can we expect from others?
What's JRM's public service record like?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/6418456/Labour-wanted-mass-immigration-to-make-UK-more-multicultural-says-former-adviser.html
The real moment of truth will come when No Deal is taken off the table by the force of reality. Will people who currently favour it think "I suppose Chequers isn't so bad after all" or will they think "We'd be better off staying in the EU than any of this".
I have sympathy for those involved in the negotiations as they have to do so in a febrile atmosphere with more leaks than a colander. Can anyone achieve a sensible outcome in these circumstances?
https://www.law.cam.ac.uk/press/news/2017/11/cambridge-students-organise-ai-v-lawyers-challenge
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-44924948
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-44635134
Artificial Intelligence has been used since the 1970s. It's not new, it's already happened.
For example I introduced computer generated credit scoring for a bank in 1977. Half the loan applications were judged by credit officers and half by the computer generated credit score we had developed. After six months the resulting bad debt experience showed credit scoring to be far superior to the experienced credit officers and the credit officers were dispensed with.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=talking+heads+david+byrne&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi7ocbiwIXdAhULDuwKHR3BD2IQ_AUICigB&biw=1920&bih=943#imgrc=wBrJaBnNSsFbfM: