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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mr Johnson’s fate might have been sealed when CON MPs decided to stick with the woman who lost the CON majority at GE2017
TMay June 9th 2017
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If she wants to thwart one particular candidate, that might be at a moment of a passing cloud. Who might she want to thwart?
Waiting for Mr Clipp to apologise for dropping the word "the" from my post and accusing me falsely of making a mistake when I didn't. Not holding my breath though. It takes a big man to admit when they made a mistake.
Whether May is a better choice than Boris to beat Corbyn at the next general election is less clear cut
He may yet be PM in 2018/19/20 IF
1. he can convince enough of his his fellow MPs that he has a personal credo that isn't just "I'm Boris - enough said" AND
2. he can come up with a convincing reason why he was not a fit and proper candidate in 2017 - but is now AND
3. enough of those MPs believe he has the vim and vigour to deliver - and won't just be bored and an idle delegator AND
4. enough of those MPs are prepared to take a leap of faith and put him forward to the membership AND
5. enough of the membership are convinced of their ability to sell Boris's personal credo on the doorstep
So far we have had very little from him that would satisfy any of those five points. It's still not impossible - because frankly he is the only personality in front line Tory politics who could pull it off (and the only one with much personality). But he starts from a very, very long way back - and appears to have spent the summer not having heard the starting pistol (a short provocative piece on burqas notwithstanding).
Unlike many on here, I have not been entirely persuaded against Boris. But he has a lot of work to do to get me to vote for him. (Of course, depending on the choice, I may end up voting against his opponent. But I would like a positive reason to vote. Or to stop me from just abstaining altogether.)
Superb innings by Buttler but that is a harsh dismissal. Bairstow not so much.
Odds 1.03 now, for everyone who put their mortgage on India at 1.16 10 mins ago.
When they're out, that's all folks.
Meanwhile at Scarborough, after scoring a double century, Moeen Ali has taken the first four Yorkshire wickets.
The idea of DRS is to stop the ‘howlers’ made by an ump who gets one look in real time, not to endlessly go over every decision.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/aliceazania-jarvis-obama-might-get-away-with-book-bragging-but-the-rest-of-us-should-think-before-we-a3916891.html
It`s like comparing May with Corbyn.
Huge difference in view of Leavers and Remainers
https://mobile.twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1031896199492644864
https://mobile.twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1031943630590763010
And Buttler wasn't playing a shot so where his pad was when the ball hit him doesn't matter.
EU residents will not be turfed out.
Says our Brexit secretary.
Huzzah!
Which I interpret as, "if Labour are negotiating Brexit the PM will not be me".
It is his Howard moment.
You make out like all that happens to be joining the EU is the date you join but to quote "Becoming a member of the EU is a complex procedure which does not happen overnight."
Turkey is in the middle of the Joining the EU procedure listed there and is listed as nation under it.
So, I think in a bureaucratic, technical sense, Turkey is a candidate country, but in the same way that I'm a candidate to be Michelle Pfeiffer's next husband.
If there were no more Erdogan, and the remaining elements of the accession criteria were met and the North Cyprus question were settled and the French and Austrian referendums on the matter were in favour and no one else vetoed their accession, then hey presto! the leaflet is correct.
Key passage :
Almost all Conservative MPs would reject the EU's backstop proposal, so signing up to the Withdrawal Agreement as it currently exists is not an option for May.
It basically comes down to whether Tory and DUP MPs are prepared to accept chaos instead of signing up to the NI backstop or whether they will take the chaos first and THEN sign up.
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ABC news of America reporting that Trump lawyer Michael Cohen has entered into a plea bargain with the Feds.
Tick tock???
We are in a negotiation and it is one item on the agenda.
The coup and suspension came AFTER the referendum.
Calling using the exact words the EU uses on it's OWN website a xenophobic lie and dismissing it as just a website is a stretch don't you think?
If Cohen breaks that confidentiality then he becomes dishonourable and discredits his evidence. Also the plea bagain itself puts doubt on the evidence provided in the bargain exchange eg make up something to bargain with.
https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1031957257775472642
Is it now part of the Leaver negotiating strategy to build successful talks on the back of going back on our word? What masterful strategists they are!
He might be a worse prospect for the country, but he'd fail to energise the base in the same way and - IMHO - would see Labour on sub-30%.
Has this been discussed?
Another step towards normalising a united Ireland?
It is mainly to keep some SDLP MEPs post Brexit it seems
What was agreed in December was a backstop that would apply to the whole of the UK including NI and that there would be no barriers between NI and GB unless NI agreed to them (ironically that is Article 50 of the agreement from December). They now want the backstop to be NI only and not apply to GB. The DUP would have vetoed that last December and quite rightly too. It is the EU that is backsliding.
It’s OK Mr Meeks. We already know you think that it’s acceptable for the British government to tell Turkey one thing, and expect the electorate to accept a nod and a wink that something else is the case. Cameron would have won the referendum if he’d vetoed Turkish entry or at least promised a referendum while the Tories are in power.
https://twitter.com/davidmackau/status/1031967643727749120