In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
Amazing that a motley collection of ex-Bettertogetherers and a speech featuring 'we love the EU because we love the UK' didn't win them over.
Plus if we have another referendum about the EU will we really want another one about independence as well? You really can have too much of a good thing. Personally I think we should leave referenda for this generation.
I'm resisting the urge to come over all Mandy Rice Davis.
So to speak.
The referendum genie is out of the bottle now, and I think they will be as frequent as General Elections in British political life.
There will be another on the EU within a decade or so, possibly even very soon.
We are not Switzerland and indeed unless one side wins a 60% victory on a high turnout referenda almost never settle anything.
If you think another EU referendum would settle anything see the latest Deltapoll
Amazing that a motley collection of ex-Bettertogetherers and a speech featuring 'we love the EU because we love the UK' didn't win them over.
Plus if we have another referendum about the EU will we really want another one about independence as well? You really can have too much of a good thing. Personally I think we should leave referenda for this generation.
I'm resisting the urge to come over all Mandy Rice Davis.
So to speak.
The referendum genie is out of the bottle now, and I think they will be as frequent as General Elections in British political life.
There will be another on the EU within a decade or so, possibly even very soon.
We are not Switzerland and indeed unless one side wins a 60% victory on a high turnout referenda almost never settle anything.
If you think another EU referendum would settle anything see the latest Deltapoll
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
Mr. Glenn, mildly surprised at your disbelief. Do you think there is a shift to Remain, or Leave, in the country?
Ah I see now. That poll is a month old and comes from the link below. Deltapoll haven't published their tables yet for the poll featured in today's Sun.
If anything today's Sun poll suggests a slight swing to Leave from that poll but even the earlier Deltapoll was post Chequers Deal so I doubt much has changed since
What's Deltapoll's record in General Elections?
I don't think it was around last time but it has former ICM and YouGov pollsters on its board
Whether the Jo Cox murder sad as it was made a huge difference is debateable, after all Leave still won and BMG and Comres had Remain ahead before the murder and TNS and Opinium had Leave still ahead even after the murder even if most pollsters had Remain ahead in their final polls
Whether it made a difference is debatable. The timing of the last ICM poll isn't, nor is the fact that 9 our of 11 polls before then had Leave ahead.
Of the final published polls by pollsters 8/11 had Remain ahead (ICM, TNS and Opinium the only pollsters to correctly call it for Leave), it was silent Leave voters that won it for Leave with the others
Or the modelling last time was wrong.
The 'silent' Leave voters are likely still with us
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
That won't be an option and certainly not while we have a Tory government
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
Thank you for your reply but I have a few problems with it.
You cannot assume anything today and a no deal will very much have to be on the ballot
You assume A50 can be withdrawn but I have no evidence that that is the case
You do not address the terms of remaining and how you obtain EU confirmation we would remain on the same terms with the same opt outs.
To be fair your answer is weighted to your hope but not realistic
You also do not answer how you get to a vote in the first place
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We are talking about a People's vote. There is a clear majority for that in the polls. There will be a majority in Parliament for it. Even the rogue Labour MPs will have difficulty voting against that.
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We are talking about a People's vote. There is a clear majority for that in the polls. There will be a majority in Parliament for it. Even the rogue Labour MPs will have difficulty voting against that.
Is everyone agreed on what the question should be?
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
Thank you for your reply but I have a few problems with it.
You cannot assume anything today and a no deal will very much have to be on the ballot
You assume A50 can be withdrawn but I have no evidence that that is the case
You do not address the terms of remaining and how you obtain EU confirmation we would remain on the same terms with the same opt outs.
To be fair your answer is weighted to your hope but not realistic
You also do not answer how you get to a vote in the first place
I agree with G. My proposal has been two ballots on the same day.
1. Remain vs Leave "With the all the information, we now have.."
2. If Leave wins, Withdrawl agreement vs No deal WTO.
There was an article once (I think it was in the Guardian) that was written by somebody who was very nearly eaten alive by a hippo and suffered tremendous injuries (collapsed ribcage, horrible puncture wounds) as a result. Despite its comic appearance it is a repellent predator and should be treated as such.
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We are talking about a People's vote. There is a clear majority for that in the polls. There will be a majority in Parliament for it. Even the rogue Labour MPs will have difficulty voting against that.
You are making assumptions there and to make your case can you explain how you even get to holding a peoples vote. It has to go through the HOC and HOL
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We are talking about a People's vote. There is a clear majority for that in the polls. There will be a majority in Parliament for it. Even the rogue Labour MPs will have difficulty voting against that.
Is everyone agreed on what the question should be?
There are so many holes in getting to a vote which is time limited as well, those who are excited about it need to come up with the means of actually doing it
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
Thank you for your reply but I have a few problems with it.
You cannot assume anything today and a no deal will very much have to be on the ballot
You assume A50 can be withdrawn but I have no evidence that that is the case
You do not address the terms of remaining and how you obtain EU confirmation we would remain on the same terms with the same opt outs.
To be fair your answer is weighted to your hope but not realistic
You also do not answer how you get to a vote in the first place
I agree with G. My proposal has been two ballots on the same day.
1. Remain vs Leave "With the all the information, we now have.."
2. If Leave wins, Withdrawl agreement vs No deal WTO.
2 will only come into play if Leave wins 1.
What information do we have that is verifiable that we can remain as now with all our opt outs
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We are talking about a People's vote. There is a clear majority for that in the polls. There will be a majority in Parliament for it. Even the rogue Labour MPs will have difficulty voting against that.
You are making assumptions there and to make your case can you explain how you even get to holding a peoples vote. It has to go through the HOC and HOL
In theory, it could be fast tracked within two weeks. The vote will take place in end February 2019.
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We are talking about a People's vote. There is a clear majority for that in the polls. There will be a majority in Parliament for it. Even the rogue Labour MPs will have difficulty voting against that.
You are making assumptions there and to make your case can you explain how you even get to holding a peoples vote. It has to go through the HOC and HOL
In theory, it could be fast tracked within two weeks. The vote will take place in end February 2019.
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
Thank you for your reply but I have a few problems with it.
You cannot assume anything today and a no deal will very much have to be on the ballot
You assume A50 can be withdrawn but I have no evidence that that is the case
You do not address the terms of remaining and how you obtain EU confirmation we would remain on the same terms with the same opt outs.
To be fair your answer is weighted to your hope but not realistic
You also do not answer how you get to a vote in the first place
I agree with G. My proposal has been two ballots on the same day.
1. Remain vs Leave "With the all the information, we now have.."
2. If Leave wins, Withdrawl agreement vs No deal WTO.
2 will only come into play if Leave wins 1.
What information do we have that is verifiable that we can remain as now with all our opt outs
Who decides the questions
And how do we get there in the first place
We have had statements for Tusk et al that if Art.50 was withdrawn the UK will remain a member as it is today. Of course, that needs to be confirmed. If the Leave side thinks the EU will be in utter chaos after March 29th, then surely there will be no objection from any EU country.
I know everybody is aereated by referendums and deals, but deadlines approach. We have ~220days to X-Day. I have two questions.
* Question 1: Can a referendum be held in that timeframe? As a supplemental, what is the latest date a referendum can be announced in order to hold one in time. * Question 2: Can a deal be signed in that timeframe? As a supplemental, what is the latest date a deal can be signed in order to ratify one in time.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We have the absurd "get on with it" tendency out there who need to be reminded of a few facts. On March 29th 2019 we won't really be leaving the EU at all but will enter a transition period lasting until December 31st 2020 during which we will continue to be subject to all the rules, regulations and responsibilities of EU membership.
Only if we decide to leave without an agreement will we be "out" on 29/3/19 but we will (it seems ) have no arrangements in place as to the most basic aspects of our future economic relationship with not only the EU but the rest of the world.
Yes of course on 30/3/19 May will trumpet the wonderful new FTAs with Canada, Australia and New Zealand but that doesn't really mean much.
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We are talking about a People's vote. There is a clear majority for that in the polls. There will be a majority in Parliament for it. Even the rogue Labour MPs will have difficulty voting against that.
No there isn't.
On today's Deltapoll 40% say we should Leave next March with a Deal or Without, compared to 31% who want a second in-out referendum and 15% who want a second referendum but only on the terms of the Deal
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We are talking about a People's vote. There is a clear majority for that in the polls. There will be a majority in Parliament for it. Even the rogue Labour MPs will have difficulty voting against that.
You are making assumptions there and to make your case can you explain how you even get to holding a peoples vote. It has to go through the HOC and HOL
In theory, it could be fast tracked within two weeks. The vote will take place in end February 2019.
May I politely ask which theory
Bills have been fast tracked when the HoC and the HoL are in agreement. Sometimes multiple readings took place on the same day.
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
Thank you for your reply but I have a few problems with it.
You cannot assume anything today and a no deal will very much have to be on the ballot
You assume A50 can be withdrawn but I have no evidence that that is the case
You do not address the terms of remaining and how you obtain EU confirmation we would remain on the same terms with the same opt outs.
To be fair your answer is weighted to your hope but not realistic
You also do not answer how you get to a vote in the first place
I agree with G. My proposal has been two ballots on the same day.
1. Remain vs Leave "With the all the information, we now have.."
2. If Leave wins, Withdrawl agreement vs No deal WTO.
2 will only come into play if Leave wins 1.
What information do we have that is verifiable that we can remain as now with all our opt outs
Who decides the questions
And how do we get there in the first place
We have had statements for Tusk et al that if Art.50 was withdrawn the UK will remain a member as it is today. Of course, that needs to be confirmed. If the Leave side thinks the EU will be in utter chaos after March 29th, then surely there will be no objection from any EU country.
Can you refer me to Tusks comments and why do you assume the EU want us to stay after all this
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We are talking about a People's vote. There is a clear majority for that in the polls. There will be a majority in Parliament for it. Even the rogue Labour MPs will have difficulty voting against that.
No there isn't.
On today's Deltapoll 40% say we should Leave next March with a Deal or Without, compared to 31% who want a second in-out referendum and 15% who want a second referendum but only on the terms of the Deal
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We are talking about a People's vote. There is a clear majority for that in the polls. There will be a majority in Parliament for it. Even the rogue Labour MPs will have difficulty voting against that.
You are making assumptions there and to make your case can you explain how you even get to holding a peoples vote. It has to go through the HOC and HOL
In theory, it could be fast tracked within two weeks. The vote will take place in end February 2019.
May I politely ask which theory
Bills have been fast tracked when the HoC and the HoL are in agreement. Sometimes multiple readings took place on the same day.
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
Thank you for your reply but I have a few problems with it.
You cannot assume anything today and a no deal will very much have to be on the ballot
You assume A50 can be withdrawn but I have no evidence that that is the case
You do not address the terms of remaining and how you obtain EU confirmation we would remain on the same terms with the same opt outs.
To be fair your answer is weighted to your hope but not realistic
You also do not answer how you get to a vote in the first place
I agree with G. My proposal has been two ballots on the same day.
1. Remain vs Leave "With the all the information, we now have.."
2. If Leave wins, Withdrawl agreement vs No deal WTO.
2 will only come into play if Leave wins 1.
What information do we have that is verifiable that we can remain as now with all our opt outs
Who decides the questions
And how do we get there in the first place
We have had statements for Tusk et al that if Art.50 was withdrawn the UK will remain a member as it is today. Of course, that needs to be confirmed. If the Leave side thinks the EU will be in utter chaos after March 29th, then surely there will be no objection from any EU country.
Can you refer me to Tusks comments and why do you assume the EU want us to stay after all this
This blog is a brains trust of political knowledge but no one can give me a pathway to a peoples vote or how the questions are agreed and how long a campaign would be
Can somebody provide a thought through answer or is a peoples vote a pipe dream for remainers
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
Thank you for your reply but I have a few problems with it.
You cannot assume anything today and a no deal will very much have to be on the ballot
You assume A50 can be withdrawn but I have no evidence that that is the case
You do not address the terms of remaining and how you obtain EU confirmation we would remain on the same terms with the same opt outs.
To be fair your answer is weighted to your hope but not realistic
You also do not answer how you get to a vote in the first place
I agree with G. My proposal has been two ballots on the same day.
1. Remain vs Leave "With the all the information, we now have.."
2. If Leave wins, Withdrawl agreement vs No deal WTO.
2 will only come into play if Leave wins 1.
What information do we have that is verifiable that we can remain as now with all our opt outs
Who decides the questions
And how do we get there in the first place
We have had statements for Tusk et al that if Art.50 was withdrawn the UK will remain a member as it is today. Of course, that needs to be confirmed. If the Leave side thinks the EU will be in utter chaos after March 29th, then surely there will be no objection from any EU country.
Can you refer me to Tusks comments and why do you assume the EU want us to stay after all this
There is no detail in that article of the conditions the EU would demand to remain which is key to any peoples vote discussion if indeed there ever is such a discussion
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We are talking about a People's vote. There is a clear majority for that in the polls. There will be a majority in Parliament for it. Even the rogue Labour MPs will have difficulty voting against that.
No there isn't.
On today's Deltapoll 40% say we should Leave next March with a Deal or Without, compared to 31% who want a second in-out referendum and 15% who want a second referendum but only on the terms of the Deal
There's always been wastage with fruit and veg. Even in the 1960s, we riddled out the blighty, green and tiny potatoes for 'pig tates'. Soft fruit will always be a victim, but EU rules have made things worse.
Personally, I recommend the misshapen strawberries from Tesco. Less than half-price and just as good.
The infamous bendy banana rules that were the euro myths... but in actually fact entirely correct.
This blog is a brains trust of political knowledge but no one can give me a pathway to a peoples vote or how the questions are agreed and how long a campaign would be
Can somebody provide a thought through answer or is a peoples vote a pipe dream for remainers
I don't know the answer to that question, but I am trying to find out by asking my questions above, namely:
* What is the last date on which a referendum can be announced? * What is the last date on which a deal can be signed? * Can article 50 be revoked?
If we are past the date for a referendum to be held in time, then the answer is simple; there will not be one. If we are past the date for a deal to be signed and ratified, than any referendum cannot have a "Deal" option on it. If Article 50 cannot be revoked, then any referendum cannot have a "Remain" option on it.
If we are not past those deadlines and Article 50 can be revoked, then a Remain vs Deal vs No Deal referendum is still possible If we are not past those deadlines and Article 50 cannot be revoked, then a Deal vs No Deal referendum is still possible If we are past those deadlines then a referendum is not possible.
Lacking further information that is the best answer I can give you.
There is no detail in that article of the conditions the EU would demand to remain which is key to any peoples vote discussion if indeed there ever is such a discussion
Revoking Article 50 would be a sovereign decision by the UK and would leave us with the pre-Cameron's deal status under the treaties.
I know everybody is aereated by referendums and deals, but deadlines approach. We have ~220days to X-Day. I have two questions.
* Question 1: Can a referendum be held in that timeframe? As a supplemental, what is the latest date a referendum can be announced in order to hold one in time. * Question 2: Can a deal be signed in that timeframe? As a supplemental, what is the latest date a deal can be signed in order to ratify one in time.
On question 2. The only deal that matters for the UK is getting a "transition". Actually, the maintenance of most of the status quo. The "transition" is the only thing that has mattered for the past two years. This in turn depends on getting the Withdrawal Agreement. That is in place with one big blocker - the Northern Ireland backstop that Ireland and therefore the EU insist on. The NI backstop needs to be conceded. It's as simple as that. But it could be quick.
In the medium to long term the trick is to have "temporary" vassal status which we can leave and intend to replace, but we never actually leave, because the cost of doing so is too high.
There is no detail in that article of the conditions the EU would demand to remain which is key to any peoples vote discussion if indeed there ever is such a discussion
Revoking Article 50 would be a sovereign decision by the UK and would leave us with the pre-Cameron's deal status under the treaties.
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers,
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We are talking about a People's vote. There is a clear majority for that in the polls. There will be a majority in Parliament for it. Even the rogue Labour MPs will have difficulty voting against that.
You are making assumptions there and to make your case can you explain how you even get to holding a peoples vote. It has to go through the HOC and HOL
In theory, it could be fast tracked within two weeks. The vote will take place in end February 2019.
May I politely ask which theory
Bills have been fast tracked when the HoC and the HoL are in agreement. Sometimes multiple readings took place on the same day.
So who is going to put forward the bill. TM isn't
Surely that must be the people, as it is their vote.
Should we now refer to the pervious vote as the first people's vote?
Any referendum can only have binary options and retain any credibility.
I know everybody is aereated by referendums and deals, but deadlines approach. We have ~220days to X-Day. I have two questions.
* Question 1: Can a referendum be held in that timeframe? As a supplemental, what is the latest date a referendum can be announced in order to hold one in time. * Question 2: Can a deal be signed in that timeframe? As a supplemental, what is the latest date a deal can be signed in order to ratify one in time.
On question 2. The only deal that matters for the UK is getting a "transition". Actually, the maintenance of most of the status quo. The "transition" is the only thing that has mattered for the past two years. This in turn depends on getting the Withdrawal Agreement. That is in place with one big blocker - the Northern Ireland backstop that Ireland and therefore the EU insist on. The NI backstop needs to be conceded. It's as simple as that. But it could be quick.
In the medium to long term the trick is to have "temporary" vassal status which we can leave and intend to replace, but we never actually leave, because the cost of doing so is too high.
Thank you. Yes, a zombie Brexit is looking horribly plausible (perhaps "Hotel California" is a better analogy )
You also do not answer how you get to a vote in the first place
"I have just returned from Brussels where we have agreed final withdrawal agreement under Article 50 to deliver a smooth and orderly Brexit.
This is a deal that takes back control of our laws, borders, money, etc etc
This is the Brexit that people voted for in 2016. But we are a sovereign country, and now that we have the final deal, it is right that you the people should decide whether you want to proceed with Brexit, or to remain in the European Union as a full member state.
That is why the cabinet and I have agreed that there should be a referendum, to be held on the xxx of xxxx to give you that choice. Tomorrow I will move the necessary legislation in parliament to facilitate this process, and I trust that all parties will support this to give the people their say."
This blog is a brains trust of political knowledge but no one can give me a pathway to a peoples vote or how the questions are agreed and how long a campaign would be
Can somebody provide a thought through answer or is a peoples vote a pipe dream for remainers
The way I think it most likely is if Chequers fails to pass the Commons, once the EU has fettled it. Options then would be No Deal or A50 suspension or a GE. The latter two may well lead to a #peoplesvote.
A further possibility would be if it became Labour policy and attracted enough Tory rebels.
I don't think it would get through Parliament without Remain as an option, and realistically Feb is the only possibility. A campaign then with the Brexit deadline looming for No Deal would be quite fraught, politically and economically.
This blog is a brains trust of political knowledge but no one can give me a pathway to a peoples vote or how the questions are agreed and how long a campaign would be
Can somebody provide a thought through answer or is a peoples vote a pipe dream for remainers
A Chequers minus deal is put to Parliament in November this year and is defeated by a combination of ERG, Labour, SNP and LD. The Government has nothing further to offer. If nothing happens then it is an abrupt No Deal with no transition which most MPs agree would be disastrous.
What can the Government do? It could propose a referendum to settle the matter with Parliament voting on the wording. It would, at the same time, ask the EU for an extension of A50 which would be granted. Or it could resign. The choice then would be an immediate GE (from which Labour would probably form a minority government but there is very little time before 29 March) or a temporary government of "National Unity" which would ask for an extension of A50 and agree to a referendum. This would be lead by someone like Dominic Greave, supported by most Tories, LDs, SNPs and enough Lab MPs. That is the pathway.
Having said all that, I think it is unlikely. Much more likely is that the Chequers minus deal will be supported which kicks the can of the trading arrangement into the transition period, but has the EU NI backstop legally agreed so the only viable outcome is SM/CU possibly after an extended transition period beyond the next GE.
There is no detail in that article of the conditions the EU would demand to remain which is key to any peoples vote discussion if indeed there ever is such a discussion
Revoking Article 50 would be a sovereign decision by the UK and would leave us with the pre-Cameron's deal status under the treaties.
If it's revocable.
According to Lord Kerr (on BBC R4 this morning) who wrote the system, all May or a new PM needs to do is ask for the A50 letter to be returned and the EU Commission would be obliged to do so. And because we never left, there would be no change to the existing rules and regulations.
As for the EU referendum, for all the garbage of it being the will of the people, it was set up, probably in error by Cameron, to be advisory only.
This blog is a brains trust of political knowledge but no one can give me a pathway to a peoples vote or how the questions are agreed and how long a campaign would be
Can somebody provide a thought through answer or is a peoples vote a pipe dream for remainers
I don't know the answer to that question, but I am trying to find out by asking my questions above, namely:
* What is the last date on which a referendum can be announced? * What is the last date on which a deal can be signed? * Can article 50 be revoked?
If we are past the date for a referendum to be held in time, then the answer is simple; there will not be one. If we are past the date for a deal to be signed and ratified, than any referendum cannot have a "Deal" option on it. If Article 50 cannot be revoked, then any referendum cannot have a "Remain" option on it.
If we are not past those deadlines and Article 50 can be revoked, then a Remain vs Deal vs No Deal referendum is still possible If we are not past those deadlines and Article 50 cannot be revoked, then a Deal vs No Deal referendum is still possible If we are past those deadlines then a referendum is not possible.
Lacking further information that is the best answer I can give you.
The only deal that can be addressed by a pre Brexit referendum is a "temporary" "transition" ie time limited or indefinite maintenance of most of the status quo. That's because any final state will only be settled after Brexit. . Effectively the referendum choice will be between Brexit and no Brexit, where Brexit would be accompanied by an immediate and chaotic disruption of relationship or by a decision not to agree anything yet. In no circumstances would there be a deal for the referendum to decide on.
I know everybody is aereated by referendums and deals, but deadlines approach. We have ~220days to X-Day. I have two questions.
* Question 1: Can a referendum be held in that timeframe? As a supplemental, what is the latest date a referendum can be announced in order to hold one in time. * Question 2: Can a deal be signed in that timeframe? As a supplemental, what is the latest date a deal can be signed in order to ratify one in time.
On question 2. The only deal that matters for the UK is getting a "transition". Actually, the maintenance of most of the status quo. The "transition" is the only thing that has mattered for the past two years. This in turn depends on getting the Withdrawal Agreement. That is in place with one big blocker - the Northern Ireland backstop that Ireland and therefore the EU insist on. The NI backstop needs to be conceded. It's as simple as that. But it could be quick.
In the medium to long term the trick is to have "temporary" vassal status which we can leave and intend to replace, but we never actually leave, because the cost of doing so is too high.
The EU have started to talk about bending on the NI backstop, and the trick is to prevent a transition becoming zombie Brexit.
For everyone who actually wants to referendum to be honoured....
There is no detail in that article of the conditions the EU would demand to remain which is key to any peoples vote discussion if indeed there ever is such a discussion
Revoking Article 50 would be a sovereign decision by the UK and would leave us with the pre-Cameron's deal status under the treaties.
If it's revocable.
According to Lord Kerr (on BBC R4 this morning) who wrote the system, all May or a new PM needs to do is ask for the A50 letter to be returned and the EU Commission would be obliged to do so. And because we never left, there would be no change to the existing rules and regulations.
As for the EU referendum, for all the garbage of it being the will of the people, it was set up, probably in error by Cameron, to be advisory only.
'All the garbage of it being the will of the people'.
Regarding our old friend Brexit, my prediction is that we can't reliably predict what is going to happen. No deal crash Brexit is the default exit - and although that has certain Tories creaming their pants it terrifies anyone who knows how trade and diplomacy and the law work. We may see anything from large scale leaks to formal letters from senior civil servants detailing the catastrophic effect of the political ineptitude.
The challenge for avoiding crash brexit is that its the easiest political option. I respect (and agree with) the idea of a referendum or a general election, but really dont want to muster up the energy to have doorstep conversations with deluded tossers insistent that proof of disaster is just scare stories.
The only deal that can be in a referendum is a "temporary" "transition" ie time limited or indefinite maintenance of most of the status quo. That's because any final state will only be settled after Brexit. . Effectively the referendum choice will be between Brexit and no Brexit, where Brexit would be accompanied by an immediate and chaotic disruption of relationship or by a decision not to agree anything yet. In no circumstances will there be a deal for the referendum to decide on.
But what there can be, right up until the moment May delivers the kind of speech I outlined below, is real uncertainty about the prospect of No Deal. That's what will allow her to spin a bridge to nowhere as a win and to keep a firm grip on the domestic political situation.
Over on the Agricultural Economic Society website there are presentations of research done by various Unis and think tanks on what happens to Agri/Farming with various brexit scenarios. If we have no FTA with the EU and apply the CET to EU and RoW, then the impact on farmers could be dramatic. Beef and dairy farmers incomes could double and with significant production increases. A point of interest was that wheat and barley farmers would see no change.
What would happen to beef and dairy prices for consumers? I worry a lot about "supplier capture", and this would be a classic example for that. It's saying that the UK would be better off if our farmers didn't face competition from abroad.
I also am somewhat sceptical of the "food self sufficiency" argument. It basically says that UK consumers should not be allowed to choose to buy foreign food - because doing so reduces self sufficiency. It's also worth remembering that self sufficiency, even if we were to techncally achieve it, would be a mirage. We would still need to import nitrogen fertilizers, potash and potassium - not to mention glyphosate and other *cides. Should the UK be cut off from the rest of the world, our food production capability would fall as we would no longer have access to the things needed to achieve current yields.
There is no detail in that article of the conditions the EU would demand to remain which is key to any peoples vote discussion if indeed there ever is such a discussion
Revoking Article 50 would be a sovereign decision by the UK and would leave us with the pre-Cameron's deal status under the treaties.
If it's revocable.
According to Lord Kerr (on BBC R4 this morning) who wrote the system, all May or a new PM needs to do is ask for the A50 letter to be returned and the EU Commission would be obliged to do so. And because we never left, there would be no change to the existing rules and regulations.
As for the EU referendum, for all the garbage of it being the will of the people, it was set up, probably in error by Cameron, to be advisory only.
Unfortunately, his interpretation doesn't matter. It's for the ECJ to decide.
I know everybody is aereated by referendums and deals, but deadlines approach. We have ~220days to X-Day. I have two questions.
* Question 1: Can a referendum be held in that timeframe? As a supplemental, what is the latest date a referendum can be announced in order to hold one in time. * Question 2: Can a deal be signed in that timeframe? As a supplemental, what is the latest date a deal can be signed in order to ratify one in time.
On question 2. The only deal that matters for the UK is getting a "transition". Actually, the maintenance of most of the status quo. The "transition" is the only thing that has mattered for the past two years. This in turn depends on getting the Withdrawal Agreement. That is in place with one big blocker - the Northern Ireland backstop that Ireland and therefore the EU insist on. The NI backstop needs to be conceded. It's as simple as that. But it could be quick.
In the medium to long term the trick is to have "temporary" vassal status which we can leave and intend to replace, but we never actually leave, because the cost of doing so is too high.
Thank you. Yes, a zombie Brexit is looking horribly plausible (perhaps "Hotel California" is a better analogy )
As the Hotel California song puts it, we're prisoners of our own device. We have put ourselves into a place where we have no decent choices. That includes forgetting about the whole thing
You also do not answer how you get to a vote in the first place
"I have just returned from Brussels where we have agreed final withdrawal agreement under Article 50 to deliver a smooth and orderly Brexit.
This is a deal that takes back control of our laws, borders, money, etc etc
This is the Brexit that people voted for in 2016. But we are a sovereign country, and now that we have the final deal, it is right that you the people should decide whether you want to proceed with Brexit, or to remain in the European Union as a full member state.
That is why the cabinet and I have agreed that there should be a referendum, to be held on the xxx of xxxx to give you that choice. Tomorrow I will move the necessary legislation in parliament to facilitate this process, and I trust that all parties will support this to give the people their say."
Typical EU behaviour. If you don't like the first answer, ask again.. and again, and again....
Putting the latest Delta and Kantar figures into the EMA gives:
Con 289 (-29) Lab 283 (+21) LD 16 (+4) Grn 1 UKIP 0 SNP 40 (+5) PC 3 (-1) NI 18
Con still largest party but Labour creeping up and would form a minority government.
No GE anytime soon.
We need an up-to date Scottish poll.
A Scottish poll would make no difference given the SNP will prop up Labour.
What is most likely at the moment is when the next general election comes the Tories will be largest party but Corbyn PM propped up by the LDs and SNP. However that is a similar story to 2015 along with the fact UKIP are also up and we know what happened then
There is no detail in that article of the conditions the EU would demand to remain which is key to any peoples vote discussion if indeed there ever is such a discussion
Revoking Article 50 would be a sovereign decision by the UK and would leave us with the pre-Cameron's deal status under the treaties.
If it's revocable.
According to Lord Kerr (on BBC R4 this morning) who wrote the system, all May or a new PM needs to do is ask for the A50 letter to be returned and the EU Commission would be obliged to do so. And because we never left, there would be no change to the existing rules and regulations.
As for the EU referendum, for all the garbage of it being the will of the people, it was set up, probably in error by Cameron, to be advisory only.
Unfortunately, his interpretation doesn't matter. It's for the ECJ to decide.
What's unquestionable is that the Council has the power to extend the Article 50 period indefinitely, so ultimately it's immaterial what the ECJ think about revocation. If there's a will, it can be done.
Given that there isn't a deal on the table ("Chequers" passed with tear it apart ERG amendments AND its already been binned off by the Commission) and that there isn't a majority in normal times for any other option including what happens if we don't agree an option, how does the government survive?
I get that Tory MPs want to stay MPs but when the deal falls business starts pulling the plug and the options are issue blue ration books printed in France, beg for an extension or hold another referendum, what specifically are they clinging to?
This is why Jezbollah is rolling his eyes. He kmows that compared to this lot he will soon look like the sane* option.
This blog is a brains trust of political knowledge but no one can give me a pathway to a peoples vote or how the questions are agreed and how long a campaign would be
Can somebody provide a thought through answer or is a peoples vote a pipe dream for remainers
I don't know the answer to that question, but I am trying to find out by asking my questions above, namely:
* What is the last date on which a referendum can be announced? * What is the last date on which a deal can be signed? * Can article 50 be revoked?
If we are past the date for a referendum to be held in time, then the answer is simple; there will not be one. If we are past the date for a deal to be signed and ratified, than any referendum cannot have a "Deal" option on it. If Article 50 cannot be revoked, then any referendum cannot have a "Remain" option on it.
If we are not past those deadlines and Article 50 can be revoked, then a Remain vs Deal vs No Deal referendum is still possible If we are not past those deadlines and Article 50 cannot be revoked, then a Deal vs No Deal referendum is still possible If we are past those deadlines then a referendum is not possible.
Lacking further information that is the best answer I can give you.
Thank you but again how do we get the act to enable a peoples vote in the first place
There is no detail in that article of the conditions the EU would demand to remain which is key to any peoples vote discussion if indeed there ever is such a discussion
Revoking Article 50 would be a sovereign decision by the UK and would leave us with the pre-Cameron's deal status under the treaties.
If it's revocable.
According to Lord Kerr (on BBC R4 this morning) who wrote the system, all May or a new PM needs to do is ask for the A50 letter to be returned and the EU Commission would be obliged to do so. And because we never left, there would be no change to the existing rules and regulations.
As for the EU referendum, for all the garbage of it being the will of the people, it was set up, probably in error by Cameron, to be advisory only.
Unfortunately, his interpretation doesn't matter. It's for the ECJ to decide.
What's unquestionable is that the Council has the power to extend the Article 50 period indefinitely, so ultimately it's immaterial what the ECJ think about revocation. If there's a will, it can be done.</blockquote
There is no detail in that article of the conditions the EU would demand to remain which is key to any peoples vote discussion if indeed there ever is such a discussion
Revoking Article 50 would be a sovereign decision by the UK and would leave us with the pre-Cameron's deal status under the treaties.
Not sure as it is a two way revoke and the EU could put conditions in place
This blog is a brains trust of political knowledge but no one can give me a pathway to a peoples vote or how the questions are agreed and how long a campaign would be
Can somebody provide a thought through answer or is a peoples vote a pipe dream for remainers
I don't know the answer to that question, but I am trying to find out by asking my questions above, namely:
* What is the last date on which a referendum can be announced? * What is the last date on which a deal can be signed? * Can article 50 be revoked?
If we are past the date for a referendum to be held in time, then the answer is simple; there will not be one. If we are past the date for a deal to be signed and ratified, than any referendum cannot have a "Deal" option on it. If Article 50 cannot be revoked, then any referendum cannot have a "Remain" option on it.
If we are not past those deadlines and Article 50 can be revoked, then a Remain vs Deal vs No Deal referendum is still possible If we are not past those deadlines and Article 50 cannot be revoked, then a Deal vs No Deal referendum is still possible If we are past those deadlines then a referendum is not possible.
Lacking further information that is the best answer I can give you.
Thank you but again how do we get the act to enable a peoples vote in the first place
If the cabinet decides to do it, the pressure on Labour to support it would be immense, so it would be guaranteed to get through the Commons. If everything was a copy of the 2015 legislation, it wouldn't need much time to be debated.
I think there's also an outside chance that May could have buried some other legal basis to hold one in the EU Withdrawal Act itself.
This blog is a brains trust of political knowledge but no one can give me a pathway to a peoples vote or how the questions are agreed and how long a campaign would be
Can somebody provide a thought through answer or is a peoples vote a pipe dream for remainers
I don't know the answer to that question, but I am trying to find out by asking my questions above, namely:
* What is the last date on which a referendum can be announced? * What is the last date on which a deal can be signed? * Can article 50 be revoked?
If we are past the date for a referendum to be held in time, then the answer is simple; there will not be one. If we are past the date for a deal to be signed and ratified, than any referendum cannot have a "Deal" option on it. If Article 50 cannot be revoked, then any referendum cannot have a "Remain" option on it.
If we are not past those deadlines and Article 50 can be revoked, then a Remain vs Deal vs No Deal referendum is still possible If we are not past those deadlines and Article 50 cannot be revoked, then a Deal vs No Deal referendum is still possible If we are past those deadlines then a referendum is not possible.
Lacking further information that is the best answer I can give you.
Thank you but again how do we get the act to enable a peoples vote in the first place
I don't know. I don't know if there is a majority in Parliament to authorise such a referendum - I suspect not. I think there's an outside chance that a referendum could be held by bypassing Parliament via Orders in Council, but I don't know if Number 10 has the imagination for it.
By my count if every Green had voted Lab in 2017, Labour would have gained 7 seats plus Brighton Pavilion:
Brighton, Pavilion Calder Valley Chipping Barnet Edinburgh North and Leith Glasgow North Norwich North Southampton, Itchen Telford
1 Green, 2 SNP, 5 Tory seats
The Greens are more likely to achieve a deal with the LibDems. Labour has a lot to gain but is unwilling and unable to offer the Greens anything in order to get it.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We have the absurd "get on with it" tendency out there who need to be reminded of a few facts. On March 29th 2019 we won't really be leaving the EU at all but will enter a transition period lasting until December 31st 2020 during which we will continue to be subject to all the rules, regulations and responsibilities of EU membership.
Only if we decide to leave without an agreement will we be "out" on 29/3/19 but we will (it seems ) have no arrangements in place as to the most basic aspects of our future economic relationship with not only the EU but the rest of the world.
Yes of course on 30/3/19 May will trumpet the wonderful new FTAs with Canada, Australia and New Zealand but that doesn't really mean much.
To broaden the discussion a little, interesting to see both the Sunday Telegraph and the Mail floating the notion of a "Care ISA" to help pay for future social care costs.
It's an interesting idea and worthy of further thought - at a time when there isn't much saving happening a clear encouragement via a tax-free unlimited saving option has some attractions. At the moment, most ISAs are paying no interest - it would be more of an encouragement if the Care ISA had an interest incentive - 2% above base rate guaranteed perhaps.
I also wondered about breaking the ceiling on Premium Bonds so anyone could have any amount - there's a little carrot in there in the prospect of earning some additional tax-free income via the draws - indeed, encourage them and ban scratch-cards would be my idea.
The problem for me is or are the amounts involved - residential care in London and the SE costs £1000 per week so you're looking at saving over £50k to cover a year's costs and £250k for five years. That's a lot of money to save so naturally the primary appreciating capital asset (the property) has to go to cover what's required.
It's all very well the Government claiming a large pool of ISA cash already exists among the elderly but does everyone have £50k sitting around? No, what the shrewd elderly do is divest themselves of assets in order not to have pay too much (putting properties in trust to children or grandchildren as an example).
If you have a higher level of cash to invest, would you put it in a Care ISA or look at Unit Trusts or Hedge Funds or something with a bit more risk but much greater reward.
The Care ISA is an interesting start - it`s not the answer or anywhere near it. The current system actively discourages self-provision and encourages managed pauperisation of the elderly leaving the State (or impoverished County Councils) to pick up the tab in the name of inheritance provision.
The other aspect is an economic culture which predicates consumption over saving and puts provision for one`s later years well behind the acquisition of assets.
This blog is a brains trust of political knowledge but no one can give me a pathway to a peoples vote or how the questions are agreed and how long a campaign would be
Can somebody provide a thought through answer or is a peoples vote a pipe dream for remainers
I don't know the answer to that question, but I am trying to find out by asking my questions above, namely:
* What is the last date on which a referendum can be announced? * What is the last date on which a deal can be signed? * Can article 50 be revoked?
If we are past the date for a referendum to be held in time, then the answer is simple; there will not be one. If we are past the date for a deal to be signed and ratified, than any referendum cannot have a "Deal" option on it. If Article 50 cannot be revoked, then any referendum cannot have a "Remain" option on it.
If we are not past those deadlines and Article 50 can be revoked, then a Remain vs Deal vs No Deal referendum is still possible If we are not past those deadlines and Article 50 cannot be revoked, then a Deal vs No Deal referendum is still possible If we are past those deadlines then a referendum is not possible.
Lacking further information that is the best answer I can give you.
Thank you but again how do we get the act to enable a peoples vote in the first place
I don't know. I don't know if there is a majority in Parliament to authorise such a referendum - I suspect not. I think there's an outside chance that a referendum could be held by bypassing Parliament via Orders in Council, but I don't know if Number 10 has the imagination for it.
I think a second referendum can only serve one purpose. We realise.we have got ourselves into a horrible mess and are looking for an out. A referendum is the democratically kosher out. There would have to be a consensus that we screwed the pooch badly with our Leave vote. There just isn't that consensus.
Do we have any PB Manchester United supporters who come from Manchester or even Lancashire ?
As opposed to Scotland, Wales or London
Yes. Raised in Rochdale to a Salfordian father who with my grandfather told me tales of the majesty of George Best.
Could do with a player like Best now. Current lot are pygmies lead by a prancing wazzock
I watched George Best through his career, add in Denis Law and Bobby Charlton, and you have a fabulous attack
I did manage to resist my Grandad trying to get me down to the willows to watch Salford RLFC. Rugby League wasn't fashionable for a young spod in the 1980s...
Putting the latest Delta and Kantar figures into the EMA gives:
Con 289 (-29) Lab 283 (+21) LD 16 (+4) Grn 1 UKIP 0 SNP 40 (+5) PC 3 (-1) NI 18
Con still largest party but Labour creeping up and would form a minority government.
No GE anytime soon.
We need an up-to date Scottish poll.
A Scottish poll would make no difference given the SNP will prop up Labour.
What is most likely at the moment is when the next general election comes the Tories will be largest party but Corbyn PM propped up by the LDs and SNP. However that is a similar story to 2015 along with the fact UKIP are also up and we know what happened then
Sounds reasonable. No party has more deserved to lose a General Election in living memory than this manifistation of the Tory Party
Putting the latest Delta and Kantar figures into the EMA gives:
Con 289 (-29) Lab 283 (+21) LD 16 (+4) Grn 1 UKIP 0 SNP 40 (+5) PC 3 (-1) NI 18
Con still largest party but Labour creeping up and would form a minority government.
No GE anytime soon.
We need an up-to date Scottish poll.
A Scottish poll would make no difference given the SNP will prop up Labour.
What is most likely at the moment is when the next general election comes the Tories will be largest party but Corbyn PM propped up by the LDs and SNP. However that is a similar story to 2015 along with the fact UKIP are also up and we know what happened then
Sounds reasonable. No party has more deserved to lose a General Election in living memory than this manifistation of the Tory Party
And no LOTO has ever been so unworthy of winning a General Election as Corbyn.
The problem for me is or are the amounts involved - residential care in London and the SE costs £1000 per week so you're looking at saving over £50k to cover a year's costs and £250k for five years. That's a lot of money to save so naturally the primary appreciating capital asset (the property) has to go to cover what's required.
It's all very well the Government claiming a large pool of ISA cash already exists among the elderly but does everyone have £50k sitting around? No, what the shrewd elderly do is divest themselves of assets in order not to have pay too much (putting properties in trust to children or grandchildren as an example).
I have a frail parent and I and my siblings are discussing ways of caring. I can tell you straight that we can't do £1000 a week. We probably won't be able to do £1000 a month. And that's combined. The best idea Gordon Brown ever came up with was a National Care Service...
In a choice between "the Brexit people voted for" aka Chequers, and Remain, would they turn out to vote?
As I asked earlier how are you getting to the vote and questions
One of my first assumptions is that there cannot ever be a referendum with No Deal on it because even holding it would trash the country's reputation, so Deal vs No Deal is out, and the Justine Greening three-way referendum is out.
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
With over 40% polled backing No Deal of course that will be an option and as long as we have a Tory PM the only EU referendum their backbenchers will allow would be Deal v No Deal.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
What matters here are the views of the MPs, not some random poll result that you have pulled out from behind your sofa.
The vast majority of Tory MPs now back Leave as their constituencies and members do too and as proved in the Commons with the votes to invoke Article 50, Leave the EEA and Leave the Customs Union the current Parliament now has a clear majority to respect the Leave vote, even if not for No Deal Brexit
We are talking about a People's vote.
You aren't. You are talking about a Remainers Vote.
I have a frail parent and I and my siblings are discussing ways of caring. I can tell you straight that we can't do £1000 a week. We probably won't be able to do £1000 a month. And that's combined. The best idea Gordon Brown ever came up with was a National Care Service...
I understand completely - my brother and I had this discussion with my late father. The truth is not everyone needs or wants residential care so a nationalised system of care into which we would all contribute via general or hypothecated taxation would have some screaming about the inequity.
A second truth is if we need to build houses we`d better make sure a good proportion are designed for the elderly and for residential care provision. Modern retirement villages would be more sensible than estates for families with cars.
IF a greater proportion of elderly people end up requiring residential, nursing or dementia care the demand for the provision of that care will go through the roof (meaning more workers and carers) so how will that be funded, provided and supported? Perhaps one fewer nuclear submarine or one fewer aircraft carrier might help.
One thought I had was that as the demand for commercial and retail space has declined, the conversion of town centre areas to elderly-friendly districts might not be a bad thing.
A ministry led by Dominic Grieve? About as likely as Theresa May opening a Ministry of Silly Walks.
Boris Johnson has already opened that (if the Ministry for Silly Flounces counts).
The problem with a second referendum is that it isn't going to happen for a vast number of reasons (not least because win or lose it would finish Theresa May and she knows it) but a noisy minority desperately want it to happen so they're convinced it will go ahead at some point.
They remind me of the time I was abruptly moved to a different building without any warning or consultation and I spent three weeks arguing with SLT about why they should change their minds and send a boring, pointless subject like maths there instead. They didn't, of course, and I had to spend three weeks of the summer moving the entire history library (which they didn't know about) across to the other side of the site.
Very aggravating, but ultimately nothing I could do. I convinced myself otherwise because I really, really didn't want the extra work all summer through.
The only deal that can be in a referendum is a "temporary" "transition" ie time limited or indefinite maintenance of most of the status quo. That's because any final state will only be settled after Brexit. . Effectively the referendum choice will be between Brexit and no Brexit, where Brexit would be accompanied by an immediate and chaotic disruption of relationship or by a decision not to agree anything yet. In no circumstances will there be a deal for the referendum to decide on.
But what there can be, right up until the moment May delivers the kind of speech I outlined below, is real uncertainty about the prospect of No Deal. That's what will allow her to spin a bridge to nowhere as a win and to keep a firm grip on the domestic political situation.
If May made such a speech, she would immediately be challenged by her party.
To broaden the discussion a little, interesting to see both the Sunday Telegraph and the Mail floating the notion of a "Care ISA" to help pay for future social care costs.
It's an interesting idea and worthy of further thought - at a time when there isn't much saving happening a clear encouragement via a tax-free unlimited saving option has some attractions. At the moment, most ISAs are paying no interest - it would be more of an encouragement if the Care ISA had an interest incentive - 2% above base rate guaranteed perhaps.
I also wondered about breaking the ceiling on Premium Bonds so anyone could have any amount - there's a little carrot in there in the prospect of earning some additional tax-free income via the draws - indeed, encourage them and ban scratch-cards would be my idea.
The problem for me is or are the amounts involved - residential care in London and the SE costs £1000 per week so you're looking at saving over £50k to cover a year's costs and £250k for five years. That's a lot of money to save so naturally the primary appreciating capital asset (the property) has to go to cover what's required.
It's all very well the Government claiming a large pool of ISA cash already exists among the elderly but does everyone have £50k sitting around? No, what the shrewd elderly do is divest themselves of assets in order not to have pay too much (putting properties in trust to children or grandchildren as an example).
If you have a higher level of cash to invest, would you put it in a Care ISA or look at Unit Trusts or Hedge Funds or something with a bit more risk but much greater reward.
The Care ISA is an interesting start - it`s not the answer or anywhere near it. The current system actively discourages self-provision and encourages managed pauperisation of the elderly leaving the State (or impoverished County Councils) to pick up the tab in the name of inheritance provision.
The other aspect is an economic culture which predicates consumption over saving and puts provision for one`s later years well behind the acquisition of assets.
The median time in a care home is about 6 months, but there is a considerable range as I recall.
Perhaps the biggest issue is the means test. If a care ISA was exempt from the means test then it could be quite attractive, if it just counts againt state support then it would be a non starter.
Putting the latest Delta and Kantar figures into the EMA gives:
Con 289 (-29) Lab 283 (+21) LD 16 (+4) Grn 1 UKIP 0 SNP 40 (+5) PC 3 (-1) NI 18
Con still largest party but Labour creeping up and would form a minority government.
No GE anytime soon.
We need an up-to date Scottish poll.
A Scottish poll would make no difference given the SNP will prop up Labour.
What is most likely at the moment is when the next general election comes the Tories will be largest party but Corbyn PM propped up by the LDs and SNP. However that is a similar story to 2015 along with the fact UKIP are also up and we know what happened then
Sounds reasonable. No party has more deserved to lose a General Election in living memory than this manifistation of the Tory Party
Wilson's Labour in 1970, Heath's Tories in Feb 1974, Callaghan's Labour in 1979, Major's Tories in 1997 and Brown's Labour in 2010 to name but a few governments that have deserved to lose more.
However if the Tories fail to win a majority at the next general election I expect most Tories could live with a Corbyn minority government propped up by the LDs and SNP and Greens and having to deal with the aftermath of Brexit or trying to reverse Brexit and implement Socialism (or diluted Socialism due to the lack of a Corbyn majority) with the Tories having opposition all to themselves.
It certainly beats a Corbyn majority government and would likely see big midterm protest vote swings to the Tories
The problem with a second referendum is that it isn't going to happen for a vast number of reasons (not least because win or lose it would finish Theresa May and she knows it) but a noisy minority desperately want it to happen so they're convinced it will go ahead at some point.
A referendum between the deal and Remain would be one May couldn't lose if she did a Wilson during the campaign.
The problem with a second referendum is that it isn't going to happen for a vast number of reasons (not least because win or lose it would finish Theresa May and she knows it) but a noisy minority desperately want it to happen so they're convinced it will go ahead at some point.
A referendum between the deal and Remain would be one May couldn't lose if she did a Wilson during the campaign.
Because you’ve never been a member of a political party, you’re forgetting the political dimension.
She would be immediately challenged, as she would have lost the confidence of her party.
The problem with a second referendum is that it isn't going to happen for a vast number of reasons (not least because win or lose it would finish Theresa May and she knows it) but a noisy minority desperately want it to happen so they're convinced it will go ahead at some point.
A referendum between the deal and Remain would be one May couldn't lose if she did a Wilson during the campaign.
The only deal that can be in a referendum is a "temporary" "transition" ie time limited or indefinite maintenance of most of the status quo. That's because any final state will only be settled after Brexit. . Effectively the referendum choice will be between Brexit and no Brexit, where Brexit would be accompanied by an immediate and chaotic disruption of relationship or by a decision not to agree anything yet. In no circumstances will there be a deal for the referendum to decide on.
But what there can be, right up until the moment May delivers the kind of speech I outlined below, is real uncertainty about the prospect of No Deal. That's what will allow her to spin a bridge to nowhere as a win and to keep a firm grip on the domestic political situation.
If May made such a speech, she would immediately be challenged by her party.
And the challenge would take at least 24-48 hours to organise, by which time it would be clear that the momentum for a referendum was unstoppable and removing May would serve no purpose. Any recriminations would have to wait.
The only deal that can be in a referendum is a "temporary" "transition" ie time limited or indefinite maintenance of most of the status quo. That's because any final state will only be settled after Brexit. . Effectively the referendum choice will be between Brexit and no Brexit, where Brexit would be accompanied by an immediate and chaotic disruption of relationship or by a decision not to agree anything yet. In no circumstances will there be a deal for the referendum to decide on.
But what there can be, right up until the moment May delivers the kind of speech I outlined below, is real uncertainty about the prospect of No Deal. That's what will allow her to spin a bridge to nowhere as a win and to keep a firm grip on the domestic political situation.
If May made such a speech, she would immediately be challenged by her party.
And the challenge would take at least 24-48 hours to organise, by which time it would be clear that the momentum for a referendum was unstoppable and removing May would serve no purpose. Any recriminations would have to wait.
Except it wouldn’t be unstoppable.
The overwhelming majority of Tory MPs will never accept:
- A split in the UK - Another referendum
If you were had ever been a member of the Tory party you would realise that we care more about doing what we say we’re going to do than a federal europe.
The only deal that can be in a referendum is a "temporary" "transition" ie time limited or indefinite maintenance of most of the status quo. That's because any final state will only be settled after Brexit. . Effectively the referendum choice will be between Brexit and no Brexit, where Brexit would be accompanied by an immediate and chaotic disruption of relationship or by a decision not to agree anything yet. In no circumstances will there be a deal for the referendum to decide on.
But what there can be, right up until the moment May delivers the kind of speech I outlined below, is real uncertainty about the prospect of No Deal. That's what will allow her to spin a bridge to nowhere as a win and to keep a firm grip on the domestic political situation.
If May made such a speech, she would immediately be challenged by her party.
And the challenge would take at least 24-48 hours to organise, by which time it would be clear that the momentum for a referendum was unstoppable and removing May would serve no purpose. Any recriminations would have to wait.
If you were had ever been a member of the Tory party you would realise that we care more about doing what we say we’re going to do than a federal europe.
By my count if every Green had voted Lab in 2017, Labour would have gained 7 seats plus Brighton Pavilion:
Brighton, Pavilion Calder Valley Chipping Barnet Edinburgh North and Leith Glasgow North Norwich North Southampton, Itchen Telford
1 Green, 2 SNP, 5 Tory seats
The Greens are more likely to achieve a deal with the LibDems. Labour has a lot to gain but is unwilling and unable to offer the Greens anything in order to get it.
The problem with a second referendum is that it isn't going to happen for a vast number of reasons (not least because win or lose it would finish Theresa May and she knows it) but a noisy minority desperately want it to happen so they're convinced it will go ahead at some point.
A referendum between the deal and Remain would be one May couldn't lose if she did a Wilson during the campaign.
May would be toppled as leader in 5 minutes if she proposed a referendum between the deal and Remain and she knows that, however most Tory MPs could live with a referendum between the deal and no deal and May knows that too
The median time in a care home is about 6 months, but there is a considerable range as I recall.
Perhaps the biggest issue is the means test. If a care ISA was exempt from the means test then it could be quite attractive, if it just counts againt state support then it would be a non starter.
Thanks for the response, Doc.
MY father didn`t make it to 6 months but I met a resident who had been there seven years so as you say a huge variation.
Your comment about the means test is very interesting and I completely agree. It has to be part of the carrot to make any Care ISA plan attractive.
Comments
That leaves you with Deal versus Remain, and the best way to do that would be another advisory referendum with exactly the same question as last time, only now the government would say that Leave means sign the withdrawal agreement and Remain means revoke Article 50.
There may need to be an extension to allow time for it.
I mean, he managed to depose Robert Mugabe.
We had an EU referendum in 2016 when Leave beat Remain, the only reason to have another referendum just 2 years after would be on the shape that Brexit takes
You cannot assume anything today and a no deal will very much have to be on the ballot
You assume A50 can be withdrawn but I have no evidence that that is the case
You do not address the terms of remaining and how you obtain EU confirmation we would remain on the same terms with the same opt outs.
To be fair your answer is weighted to your hope but not realistic
You also do not answer how you get to a vote in the first place
1. Remain vs Leave "With the all the information, we now have.."
2. If Leave wins, Withdrawl agreement vs No deal WTO.
2 will only come into play if Leave wins 1.
Who decides the questions
And how do we get there in the first place
* Question 1: Can a referendum be held in that timeframe? As a supplemental, what is the latest date a referendum can be announced in order to hold one in time.
* Question 2: Can a deal be signed in that timeframe? As a supplemental, what is the latest date a deal can be signed in order to ratify one in time.
Only if we decide to leave without an agreement will we be "out" on 29/3/19 but we will (it seems ) have no arrangements in place as to the most basic aspects of our future economic relationship with not only the EU but the rest of the world.
Yes of course on 30/3/19 May will trumpet the wonderful new FTAs with Canada, Australia and New Zealand but that doesn't really mean much.
On today's Deltapoll 40% say we should Leave next March with a Deal or Without, compared to 31% who want a second in-out referendum and 15% who want a second referendum but only on the terms of the Deal
https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/GRAPHIC1.jpg
There are many others on or about that date.
Can somebody provide a thought through answer or is a peoples vote a pipe dream for remainers
Today's Delta Poll is a new one, not the 14th July one (which in any case was still post Chequers Deal)
Con 289 (-29)
Lab 283 (+21)
LD 16 (+4)
Grn 1
UKIP 0
SNP 40 (+5)
PC 3 (-1)
NI 18
Con still largest party but Labour creeping up and would form a minority government.
No GE anytime soon.
We need an up-to date Scottish poll.
* What is the last date on which a referendum can be announced?
* What is the last date on which a deal can be signed?
* Can article 50 be revoked?
If we are past the date for a referendum to be held in time, then the answer is simple; there will not be one.
If we are past the date for a deal to be signed and ratified, than any referendum cannot have a "Deal" option on it.
If Article 50 cannot be revoked, then any referendum cannot have a "Remain" option on it.
If we are not past those deadlines and Article 50 can be revoked, then a Remain vs Deal vs No Deal referendum is still possible
If we are not past those deadlines and Article 50 cannot be revoked, then a Deal vs No Deal referendum is still possible
If we are past those deadlines then a referendum is not possible.
Lacking further information that is the best answer I can give you.
In the medium to long term the trick is to have "temporary" vassal status which we can leave and intend to replace, but we never actually leave, because the cost of doing so is too high.
It wouldnt need too much tactical voting or electoral pact.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1031188026196717568?s=19
Should we now refer to the pervious vote as the first people's vote?
Any referendum can only have binary options and retain any credibility.
This is a deal that takes back control of our laws, borders, money, etc etc
This is the Brexit that people voted for in 2016. But we are a sovereign country, and now that we have the final deal, it is right that you the people should decide whether you want to proceed with Brexit, or to remain in the European Union as a full member state.
That is why the cabinet and I have agreed that there should be a referendum, to be held on the xxx of xxxx to give you that choice. Tomorrow I will move the necessary legislation in parliament to facilitate this process, and I trust that all parties will support this to give the people their say."
Could do with a player like Best now. Current lot are pygmies lead by a prancing wazzock
A further possibility would be if it became Labour policy and attracted enough Tory rebels.
I don't think it would get through Parliament without Remain as an option, and realistically Feb is the only possibility. A campaign then with the Brexit deadline looming for No Deal would be quite fraught, politically and economically.
You couldn't make it up!
What can the Government do? It could propose a referendum to settle the matter with Parliament voting on the wording. It would, at the same time, ask the EU for an extension of A50 which would be granted. Or it could resign. The choice then would be an immediate GE (from which Labour would probably form a minority government but there is very little time before 29 March) or a temporary government of "National Unity" which would ask for an extension of A50 and agree to a referendum. This would be lead by someone like Dominic Greave, supported by most Tories, LDs, SNPs and enough Lab MPs. That is the pathway.
Having said all that, I think it is unlikely. Much more likely is that the Chequers minus deal will be supported which kicks the can of the trading arrangement into the transition period, but has the EU NI backstop legally agreed so the only viable outcome is SM/CU possibly after an extended transition period beyond the next GE.
As for the EU referendum, for all the garbage of it being the will of the people, it was set up, probably in error by Cameron, to be advisory only.
The EU have started to talk about bending on the NI backstop, and the trick is to prevent a transition becoming zombie Brexit.
For everyone who actually wants to referendum to be honoured....
Scratch a remainer, find a fascist.
The challenge for avoiding crash brexit is that its the easiest political option. I respect (and agree with) the idea of a referendum or a general election, but really dont want to muster up the energy to have doorstep conversations with deluded tossers insistent that proof of disaster is just scare stories.
Stock up your cupboards boys and girls
I also am somewhat sceptical of the "food self sufficiency" argument. It basically says that UK consumers should not be allowed to choose to buy foreign food - because doing so reduces self sufficiency. It's also worth remembering that self sufficiency, even if we were to techncally achieve it, would be a mirage. We would still need to import nitrogen fertilizers, potash and potassium - not to mention glyphosate and other *cides. Should the UK be cut off from the rest of the world, our food production capability would fall as we would no longer have access to the things needed to achieve current yields.
What is most likely at the moment is when the next general election comes the Tories will be largest party but Corbyn PM propped up by the LDs and SNP. However that is a similar story to 2015 along with the fact UKIP are also up and we know what happened then
I get that Tory MPs want to stay MPs but when the deal falls business starts pulling the plug and the options are issue blue ration books printed in France, beg for an extension or hold another referendum, what specifically are they clinging to?
This is why Jezbollah is rolling his eyes. He kmows that compared to this lot he will soon look like the sane* option.
*not actually sane
Brighton, Pavilion
Calder Valley
Chipping Barnet
Edinburgh North and Leith
Glasgow North
Norwich North
Southampton, Itchen
Telford
1 Green, 2 SNP, 5 Tory seats
I think there's also an outside chance that May could have buried some other legal basis to hold one in the EU Withdrawal Act itself.
To broaden the discussion a little, interesting to see both the Sunday Telegraph and the Mail floating the notion of a "Care ISA" to help pay for future social care costs.
It's an interesting idea and worthy of further thought - at a time when there isn't much saving happening a clear encouragement via a tax-free unlimited saving option has some attractions. At the moment, most ISAs are paying no interest - it would be more of an encouragement if the Care ISA had an interest incentive - 2% above base rate guaranteed perhaps.
I also wondered about breaking the ceiling on Premium Bonds so anyone could have any amount - there's a little carrot in there in the prospect of earning some additional tax-free income via the draws - indeed, encourage them and ban scratch-cards would be my idea.
The problem for me is or are the amounts involved - residential care in London and the SE costs £1000 per week so you're looking at saving over £50k to cover a year's costs and £250k for five years. That's a lot of money to save so naturally the primary appreciating capital asset (the property) has to go to cover what's required.
It's all very well the Government claiming a large pool of ISA cash already exists among the elderly but does everyone have £50k sitting around? No, what the shrewd elderly do is divest themselves of assets in order not to have pay too much (putting properties in trust to children or grandchildren as an example).
If you have a higher level of cash to invest, would you put it in a Care ISA or look at Unit Trusts or Hedge Funds or something with a bit more risk but much greater reward.
The Care ISA is an interesting start - it`s not the answer or anywhere near it. The current system actively discourages self-provision and encourages managed pauperisation of the elderly leaving the State (or impoverished County Councils) to pick up the tab in the name of inheritance provision.
The other aspect is an economic culture which predicates consumption over saving and puts provision for one`s later years well behind the acquisition of assets.
The idea that Theresa May and the cabinet would spring a referendum on the unsuspecting public is madness. Let’s not entertain it.
The deal will go to the Commons, Tory MPs will look at the benches opposite, hold their noses and vote for it. Letting Corbyn in is unthinkable.
A second truth is if we need to build houses we`d better make sure a good proportion are designed for the elderly and for residential care provision. Modern retirement villages would be more sensible than estates for families with cars.
IF a greater proportion of elderly people end up requiring residential, nursing or dementia care the demand for the provision of that care will go through the roof (meaning more workers and carers) so how will that be funded, provided and supported? Perhaps one fewer nuclear submarine or one fewer aircraft carrier might help.
One thought I had was that as the demand for commercial and retail space has declined, the conversion of town centre areas to elderly-friendly districts might not be a bad thing.
The problem with a second referendum is that it isn't going to happen for a vast number of reasons (not least because win or lose it would finish Theresa May and she knows it) but a noisy minority desperately want it to happen so they're convinced it will go ahead at some point.
They remind me of the time I was abruptly moved to a different building without any warning or consultation and I spent three weeks arguing with SLT about why they should change their minds and send a boring, pointless subject like maths there instead. They didn't, of course, and I had to spend three weeks of the summer moving the entire history library (which they didn't know about) across to the other side of the site.
Very aggravating, but ultimately nothing I could do. I convinced myself otherwise because I really, really didn't want the extra work all summer through.
Perhaps the biggest issue is the means test. If a care ISA was exempt from the means test then it could be quite attractive, if it just counts againt state support then it would be a non starter.
However if the Tories fail to win a majority at the next general election I expect most Tories could live with a Corbyn minority government propped up by the LDs and SNP and Greens and having to deal with the aftermath of Brexit or trying to reverse Brexit and implement Socialism (or diluted Socialism due to the lack of a Corbyn majority) with the Tories having opposition all to themselves.
It certainly beats a Corbyn majority government and would likely see big midterm protest vote swings to the Tories
She would be immediately challenged, as she would have lost the confidence of her party.
The overwhelming majority of Tory MPs will never accept:
- A split in the UK
- Another referendum
If you were had ever been a member of the Tory party you would realise that we care more about doing what we say we’re going to do than a federal europe.
The main possibility of reaching a HoC majority seems to be a Lib-Lab-SNP pact.
Or a Lab-SNP pact in theory gives 330 votes and might be enough.
MY father didn`t make it to 6 months but I met a resident who had been there seven years so as you say a huge variation.
Your comment about the means test is very interesting and I completely agree. It has to be part of the carrot to make any Care ISA plan attractive.