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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We need to talk about Brandon Lewis

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited August 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We need to talk about Brandon Lewis

The fallout from Boris Johnson’s insults towards women who wear the burqa and niqab might end up putting the kibosh on his leadership ambitions it may also end up being sub-optimal for the prospects of Brandon Lewis.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Surely not first?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Do we have to? I met him once. Please.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Professionality such as breaking a pair agreement with an MP on Maternity Leave. Something which was bound to get a hostile reaction?

    Is that the professionalism that is needed? Or was professionality accidentally missing that day?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    edited August 2018
    "If Mrs May and Brandon Lewis wish to move the subject on perhaps they should instruct Boris Johnson and other Tories not to deal with Steve Bannon. "

    They could quote Donald Trump and say Bannon "lost his mind" after being fired and is "only in it for himself". They'd win friends on both sides of the Atlantic.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    TSe's thread headers on next Cabinet exit are Shadsy's plan for this market. Construct a plausible, but unlikely, set of events and characterise is as an, 8, 9, 10 to 1 shot when it is half that. Then come up with a new contender every fortnight.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    FPT White Rabbit and Sandpit:

    > If the original intention was for a single purchaser to buy out the land held by many investors, what was the agreement between investors as to when it might be sold? Was it originally possible for a single investor, holding a key plot, to frustrate the scheme? <

    It was originally sold as a supposedly environmental investment for long-term buyers: the idea was that the wood would be thinned out every 10 years and dividends paid then. I'm not in a position to judge the motives of the company management, but I gather they went out of business soon after selling the plots. Initially, it was hoped that someone would take over the management and proceed as previously announced, but it gradually became apparent that no white knight would appear. The solicitors looking after the moribund business had by then already lost touch with some owners, and the position is naturally worse 40 years on.

    My uncle is not really expecting a happy outcome, but I'm curious in principle whether Scottish and UK law envisages this situation - if an owner of land disappears without trace, does it simply rot forever, unless someone wants to seize it to build an airport or the like?
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    NickPalmer said:

    FPT White Rabbit and Sandpit:

    > If the original intention was for a single purchaser to buy out the land held by many investors, what was the agreement between investors as to when it might be sold? Was it originally possible for a single investor, holding a key plot, to frustrate the scheme? <

    It was originally sold as a supposedly environmental investment for long-term buyers: the idea was that the wood would be thinned out every 10 years and dividends paid then. I'm not in a position to judge the motives of the company management, but I gather they went out of business soon after selling the plots. Initially, it was hoped that someone would take over the management and proceed as previously announced, but it gradually became apparent that no white knight would appear. The solicitors looking after the moribund business had by then already lost touch with some owners, and the position is naturally worse 40 years on.

    My uncle is not really expecting a happy outcome, but I'm curious in principle whether Scottish and UK law envisages this situation - if an owner of land disappears without trace, does it simply rot forever, unless someone wants to seize it to build an airport or the like?

    It’s possible to CPO land in unknown ownership.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,898
    edited August 2018
    If - if - a certain subset of Muslim ladies (and it is only a subset!) have the right to wear the niqab and burqa, then doesn't Boris have the right to pass fair comment?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    NickPalmer said:

    FPT White Rabbit and Sandpit:

    > If the original intention was for a single purchaser to buy out the land held by many investors, what was the agreement between investors as to when it might be sold? Was it originally possible for a single investor, holding a key plot, to frustrate the scheme? <

    It was originally sold as a supposedly environmental investment for long-term buyers: the idea was that the wood would be thinned out every 10 years and dividends paid then. I'm not in a position to judge the motives of the company management, but I gather they went out of business soon after selling the plots. Initially, it was hoped that someone would take over the management and proceed as previously announced, but it gradually became apparent that no white knight would appear. The solicitors looking after the moribund business had by then already lost touch with some owners, and the position is naturally worse 40 years on.

    My uncle is not really expecting a happy outcome, but I'm curious in principle whether Scottish and UK law envisages this situation - if an owner of land disappears without trace, does it simply rot forever, unless someone wants to seize it to build an airport or the like?

    I'd take a thorough look at the bi-partite, or tri-partite relationship between your uncle, the management company, and neighboruing owners. If there is a power of sale, I would expect it to be contractual.

    Equally if clearing forest land is fundamentally a profitable activity, could your uncle (with or without adjoining owners) appoint a different forest manager?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2018
    "Europe Elects
    ‏ @EuropeElects
    4h4 hours ago

    Germany, Civey poll:

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 29% (-1)
    SPD-S&D: 17% (-1)
    AfD-EFDD: 17% (+2)
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 14%
    LINKE-LEFT: 10%
    FDP-ALDE: 8%

    Field work: 5/08/18 – 12/08/18
    Sample size: 11,908"
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Why does Michael Gove top this list? As a Leave backer of Chequers and as someone who actually appears to enjoy his current ministerial portfolio it seems a bit unlikely to me.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Lordy, lordy, are people still talking about Boris and Burka's? :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited August 2018
    Norm said:

    Why does Michael Gove top this list? As a Leave backer of Chequers and as someone who actually appears to enjoy his current ministerial portfolio it seems a bit unlikely to me.

    The thinking is that he’s the “Chequers deal but no more” member of the Cabinet. So he’ll resign as soon as the PM starts making further concessions toward the EU. I agree he’s a great minister, even Nick Palmer likes him.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TSE's TINO leanings are showing a bit too much. Lewis is as much a nonentity as Williamson. If Boris is on the ballot, he wins. However, that's a very laconic 'if'. It's not clear how he achieves this feat of legerdemain.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited August 2018
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    If - if - a certain subset of Muslim ladies (and it is only a subset!) have the right to wear the niqab and burqa, then doesn't Boris have the right to pass fair comment?

    And if Boris has the right to pass comment, don't other people have the right to pass comment on his comment....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    I think all members of the party should be strongly encouraged to have nothing to do with Bannon. Whether it is for the party to instruct back benchers on who they are allowed to speak to is another matter. I would say not.

    Lewis seems to have misjudged this but I would not be so confident that blame can be so easily allocated between the monkey and the organ grinder as TSE suggests.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited August 2018
    Danny565 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    If - if - a certain subset of Muslim ladies (and it is only a subset!) have the right to wear the niqab and burqa, then doesn't Boris have the right to pass fair comment?

    And if Boris has the right to pass comment, don't other people have the right to pass comment on his comment....
    It's a storm in a teacup. Offended people seem to think that others should give a shit that they're offended. It's a form of narcissism.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. M, I entirely agree. Steve Hughes got this right. Be offended. Nothing happens. You don't wake up with leprosy.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    India 50-4. Pujara gone
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited August 2018
    Isn't Boris's next column due to hit the Telegraph website around 10pm tonight?

    Wonder if he'll be throwing more petrol over the flames? Or whether he'll let it all simmer down? :D
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    GIN1138 said:

    Isn't Boris's next column due to hit the Telegraph website around 10pm tonight?

    Wonder if he'll be throwing more petrol over the flames? Or whether he'll let it all simmer down? :D

    He should spread the love. If he wrote that Gavin Williamson looks like a twat in a suit, the whole nation would unite behind him.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    GIN1138 said:

    Isn't Boris's next column due to hit the Telegraph website around 10pm tonight?

    Wonder if he'll be throwing more petrol over the flames? Or whether he'll let it all simmer down? :D

    If he turns into another George Osborne, he’s going to make way more enemies than friends within the party.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    How is everyone's fantasy football going? I have Holebas in my team and feeling pretty damn smug.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Alistair said:

    How is everyone's fantasy football going? I have Holebas in my team and feeling pretty damn smug.

    61 points, two to play (Ozil/Aguero) - happy enough, although I think average points scored will be pretty high. Expecting something like 500k-700k.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Norm said:

    India 50-4. Pujara gone

    England really need Kohli down the other end and play at the tail.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    eek said:

    FPT @viewcode the models are a classic example of garbage in, garbage out.

    I suspect Yougov collects enough information (from enough polls) about people that they can accurately validate predict how close any member is to their expected profile and hence know who to target within their members for their poll results.
    Ashcroft simply doesn't have the information available to validate how representative the people he polled are...

    I know that post-2015 YouGov threw a shedload of cash at their panels to try and make them representative. I don't know what Ashcroft did.

    The same truisms always stand up. If your sample frame is representative and your sampling method is random, then you have a good chance. If they aren't, then you have troubles... :(
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    ... since Trump is so popular in Briatin?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    When, oh when will we drop Broad?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Not necessarily. I have often criticised Leavers for being inconsistent in their beliefs: specifically, that interference in British politics by foreigners is bad if the foreigners are European but good if the foreigners are American. Farage is a particularly egregious example of this. I am disappointed to see you fall into the same trap.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited August 2018
    And another!

    Edit: They're reviewing it.

    Second edit: But it's out. The past-it has been is on a hat-trick
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    logical_song said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    ... since Trump is so popular in Briatin?
    It's capitalising on the media's weakness to Trumpoan tactics.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    ThomasNashe said:

    And another!

    Edit: They're reviewing it.

    Second edit: But it's out. The past-it has been is on a hat-trick

    He's big, he's bad,
    He's better than his dad,
    Stuart Broad.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Yay. Let's go banning things we don't like because it garners a few votes
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Yay. Let's go banning things we don't like because it garners a few votes
    In fairness he did say that he would not ban them, just that he didn't like them. It's incredible this has dominated the news for a week, it really is.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. 1000, like bikini ads and grid girls?

    Got to prove how feminist we are by taking work from women to satisfy the terminally offended...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, like bikini ads and grid girls?

    Got to prove how feminist we are by taking work from women to satisfy the terminally offended...

    I think people should be allowed to wear bikinis on the streets of London. I think they should be allowed to wear KKK outfits. I think firms should be allowed to avertise their products with either.

    (Although if I, as a newspaper publisher don't want to take an advert - for whatever reason - that is my concern. I shouldn't be obliged to carry something promoting gay marriage, scientology, or French cheese. It's my newspaper, and I'll starve if I want to.)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. 1000, indeed. But that's not the situation we have now. Puritanism is very fashionable these days amongst the chattering class.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Does anyone seriously doubt that May would have won her elusive landslide (or at least a majority) if she'd campaigned on the populist issues of integration and freedom of speech instead of the dementia tax and no change?

    He's got his flaws, but once Brexit is done and May is out - bring on Boris.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited August 2018
    blueblue said:

    Does anyone seriously doubt that May would have won her elusive landslide (or at least a majority) if she'd campaigned on the populist issues of integration and freedom of speech instead of the dementia tax and no change?

    He's got his flaws, but once Brexit is done and May is out - bring on Boris.

    A QTWTAIW
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. blue, no. Boris is unfit to hold high office. When has he displayed competence?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    blueblue said:

    once Brexit is done

    Not in our lifetime
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Jezza will be very pleased with Boris, that's for sure - he's diverted attention from Labour's disasterous anti-semitism issue.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Not necessarily. I have often criticised Leavers for being inconsistent in their beliefs: specifically, that interference in British politics by foreigners is bad if the foreigners are European but good if the foreigners are American. Farage is a particularly egregious example of this. I am disappointed to see you fall into the same trap.
    I did not allude to "interference by foreigners ... " so your idea that I have fallen into a trap is both obtuse and mistaken. Nor have I been inconsistent in my opinions (beliefs) about the EU/EC/EEC/Common Market since around 1970. Your disappointment is of your own imagination.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/amirightsir/status/1028656777099915264?s=21
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Yay. Let's go banning things we don't like because it garners a few votes
    You obviously couldn't be bothered to read his article which argued the exact opposite!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    [Tory Peer Lord] Cooper said: “The rottenness of Boris Johnson goes deeper even than his casual racism and his equally casual courting of fascism. He will advocate literally anything to play to the crowd of the moment. His career is a saga of moral emptiness and lies; pathetic, weak and needy; the opposite of strong.”
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    geoffw said:

    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Not necessarily. I have often criticised Leavers for being inconsistent in their beliefs: specifically, that interference in British politics by foreigners is bad if the foreigners are European but good if the foreigners are American. Farage is a particularly egregious example of this. I am disappointed to see you fall into the same trap.
    I did not allude to "interference by foreigners ... "
    You said it was "Straight out of Trump's playbook"

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    Benpointer said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Jezza will be very pleased with Boris, that's for sure - he's diverted attention from Labour's disasterous anti-semitism issue.
    Jezza will be stupid to be pleased. But what's new?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Yay. Let's go banning things we don't like because it garners a few votes
    You obviously couldn't be bothered to read his article which argued the exact opposite!
    Damn right. What do you think this is?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Not necessarily. I have often criticised Leavers for being inconsistent in their beliefs: specifically, that interference in British politics by foreigners is bad if the foreigners are European but good if the foreigners are American. Farage is a particularly egregious example of this. I am disappointed to see you fall into the same trap.
    I did not allude to "interference by foreigners ... "
    You said it was "Straight out of Trump's playbook"

    Your understanding of English is somewhat deficient if you think that implies interference.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Gove vs Boris. Osborne vs Cameron?
    Are we missing something here? Conventional wisdom has Osborne backing Gove; we were told last week that Cameron still has not forgiven Gove over Brexit but has mended relations with Boris.

    Does this mean anything in succession planning (and betting)?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    [Tory Peer Lord] Cooper . . .
    Cameron's buddy elevated to the Lords, no doubt because of this:
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/how-the-pms-pollster-pal-called-it-wrong-again/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/amirightsir/status/1028656777099915264?s=21

    Her tenure as leader has already surpassed that of Douglas-Home and Eden, by the end of next month her tenure will also have surpassed that of IDS
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Yay. Let's go banning things we don't like because it garners a few votes
    You obviously couldn't be bothered to read his article which argued the exact opposite!
    Damn right. What do you think this is?
    An echo chamber? :wink:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/amirightsir/status/1028656777099915264?s=21

    Onwards and upwards...just days until her longevity exceeds that of IDS.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    blueblue said:

    Does anyone seriously doubt that May would have won her elusive landslide (or at least a majority) if she'd campaigned on the populist issues of integration and freedom of speech instead of the dementia tax and no change?

    He's got his flaws, but once Brexit is done and May is out - bring on Boris.

    You know, though, the dementia tax was really important.

    We, as a society are getting older. Our birth rate has been below replacement levels for 30 years.

    We have to make some really difficult decisions about how we afford to pay for free healthcare.

    Back in the 1980s and 1990s, the UK made some incredibly important decisions. Tax incentives were put in place to encourage saving, even at the expense of short term damage to the economy via suppression of consumption.

    In the last few years, we've followed the principle of "way hey!, let's drive consumption higher through encouraging consumer spending, even at the expense of hammering our current account".

    The infantalisation of debate is shocking. Yeah, let's talk about burquas and whether we should - wink wink - ban them. Why bother solving any real problems, because the next lot will probably get the credit anyway.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. W, an echo chamber must be a sign of narcissism.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    geoffw said:

    [Tory Peer Lord] Cooper . . .
    Cameron's buddy elevated to the Lords, no doubt because of this:
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/how-the-pms-pollster-pal-called-it-wrong-again/

    Because Prime Ministers of all shapes and colours elevate their friends to the Lords all the time?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    HYUFD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/amirightsir/status/1028656777099915264?s=21

    Her tenure as leader has already surpassed that of Douglas-Home and Eden, by the end of next month her tenure will also have surpassed that of IDS
    Limpet-like she will cling on.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    rcs1000 said:

    blueblue said:

    Does anyone seriously doubt that May would have won her elusive landslide (or at least a majority) if she'd campaigned on the populist issues of integration and freedom of speech instead of the dementia tax and no change?

    He's got his flaws, but once Brexit is done and May is out - bring on Boris.

    You know, though, the dementia tax was really important.

    We, as a society are getting older. Our birth rate has been below replacement levels for 30 years.

    We have to make some really difficult decisions about how we afford to pay for free healthcare.

    Back in the 1980s and 1990s, the UK made some incredibly important decisions. Tax incentives were put in place to encourage saving, even at the expense of short term damage to the economy via suppression of consumption.

    In the last few years, we've followed the principle of "way hey!, let's drive consumption higher through encouraging consumer spending, even at the expense of hammering our current account".

    The infantalisation of debate is shocking. Yeah, let's talk about burquas and whether we should - wink wink - ban them. Why bother solving any real problems, because the next lot will probably get the credit anyway.
    Yep. All politics is short term whereas our problems are increasingly long term.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    geoffw said:

    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Not necessarily. I have often criticised Leavers for being inconsistent in their beliefs: specifically, that interference in British politics by foreigners is bad if the foreigners are European but good if the foreigners are American. Farage is a particularly egregious example of this. I am disappointed to see you fall into the same trap.
    I did not allude to "interference by foreigners ... " so your idea that I have fallen into a trap is both obtuse and mistaken. Nor have I been inconsistent in my opinions (beliefs) about the EU/EC/EEC/Common Market since around 1970. Your disappointment is of your own imagination.
    God I hope I've been inconsistent in my views.

    The fact is that evidence changes all the time.

    The one thing all successful investors have* is the ability to change their mind rapidly.

    * Not that I'm claiming to be a successful investor.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    https://twitter.com/marketwarbles/status/1028662625968697350
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, an echo chamber must be a sign of narcissism.

    It's the Zeitgeist.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    geoffw said:

    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Not necessarily. I have often criticised Leavers for being inconsistent in their beliefs: specifically, that interference in British politics by foreigners is bad if the foreigners are European but good if the foreigners are American. Farage is a particularly egregious example of this. I am disappointed to see you fall into the same trap.
    I did not allude to "interference by foreigners ... "
    You said it was "Straight out of Trump's playbook"

    Your understanding of English is somewhat deficient if you think that implies interference.
    My understanding of English is pretty good if I think that implies allusion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Having got Trump elected in the US, Bannon is now focused on advising European nationalist parties like Lega Nord, the AfD, Front National and Fidesz through a coordination centre he has set up in Brussels called 'The Movement.' He will not therefore have a great deal of time to see Boris

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-24/steve-bannon-wants-to-divide-and-conquer-in-europe-too
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. blue, no. Boris is unfit to hold high office. When has he displayed competence?

    I'm afraid that faced with a Corbynite Labour government, the only competence I can afford to care about is electoral. And Boris won the mayoralty of a Labour city twice, and was the single most impactful campaigner in a referendum that was meant to be an easy win for Remain.

    For the time being, across the world, the more populist you are, the bigger the electoral gains. We dare not allow Labour to be the only populist dog in the fight.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,015
    HYUFD said:

    Having got Trump elected in the US, Bannon is now focused on advising European nationalist parties like Lega Nord, the AfD, Front National and Fidesz through a coordination centre he has set up in Brussels called 'The Movement.' He will not therefore have a great deal of time to see Boris

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-24/steve-bannon-wants-to-divide-and-conquer-in-europe-too

    Boris is a 'movement' all by himself.

    Why wouldn't Bannon see Boris as part of the same project?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I was just looking at the list of 92 seats who have switched from leave to remain. I can't help wondering if this is the Lexiters giving up on their long held views? These guys have been opposing the EU for longer than anyone and I thought that they would be the last ones to turn. Dennis Skinner is pretty much the archetype.

    Nobody has been talking about these guys much. They don't fit in with the liberal end of the left wing spectrum much, tending to be very white and quite conservative in many ways. And they certainly aren't Tories - they've got a world view that has almost no contact points with free market liberalism. They just sit there with nobody to vote for until by a fluke a referendum on a subject they are actually interested in turns up.

    But it must be pretty galling for them. They won't like any of the flavours of Brexit on offer. They sure won't like the company they are now keeping. And they really won't like the idea of becoming more dependant on Trump's America.

    I wonder if they'd switch to supporting the EU if that was the official Labour Party line? If so, the chances of Brexit happening and not being reversed become even more precariously dependant on the electoral fortunes of the Conservative Party.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Not necessarily. I have often criticised Leavers for being inconsistent in their beliefs: specifically, that interference in British politics by foreigners is bad if the foreigners are European but good if the foreigners are American. Farage is a particularly egregious example of this. I am disappointed to see you fall into the same trap.
    I did not allude to "interference by foreigners ... " so your idea that I have fallen into a trap is both obtuse and mistaken. Nor have I been inconsistent in my opinions (beliefs) about the EU/EC/EEC/Common Market since around 1970. Your disappointment is of your own imagination.
    God I hope I've been inconsistent in my views.

    The fact is that evidence changes all the time.

    The one thing all successful investors have* is the ability to change their mind rapidly.

    * Not that I'm claiming to be a successful investor.
    Yeah but if you had been paying attention you would have noticed that the behaviour of the EU/EC/EEC/Common Market in reverse order was simply to intensify its less endearing features.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    To change the topic from burkhas and brexit, I've just finished a stroll into Glasgow. It's actually quite a nice city in parts.

    And better than Bedford...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    HYUFD said:

    Having got Trump elected in the US, Bannon is now focused on advising European nationalist parties like Lega Nord, the AfD, Front National and Fidesz through a coordination centre he has set up in Brussels called 'The Movement.' He will not therefore have a great deal of time to see Boris

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-24/steve-bannon-wants-to-divide-and-conquer-in-europe-too

    They are longstanding friends, have each other's phone numbers and text each other.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-new-puppeteer-steve-13069311

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,630
    rcs1000 said:

    https://twitter.com/marketwarbles/status/1028662625968697350

    Housing
    Surprises
    FTAs

    I think we get enough Brexit as it is.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,898
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    [Tory Peer Lord] Cooper . . .
    Cameron's buddy elevated to the Lords, no doubt because of this:
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/how-the-pms-pollster-pal-called-it-wrong-again/

    Because Prime Ministers of all shapes and colours elevate their friends to the Lords all the time?
    House of Unelected Has-Beens?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    geoffw said:

    HYUFD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/amirightsir/status/1028656777099915264?s=21

    Her tenure as leader has already surpassed that of Douglas-Home and Eden, by the end of next month her tenure will also have surpassed that of IDS
    Limpet-like she will cling on.
    She's only still there because no one has tried to remove her. She isn't clinging on so much as carrying on as no one has actually bothered to pry her off, and until they step up and back up their words what else can she do but keep on?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,898
    IanB2 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/amirightsir/status/1028656777099915264?s=21

    Onwards and upwards...just days until her longevity exceeds that of IDS.
    IDS never lost a GE as party leader became PM :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Not necessarily. I have often criticised Leavers for being inconsistent in their beliefs: specifically, that interference in British politics by foreigners is bad if the foreigners are European but good if the foreigners are American. Farage is a particularly egregious example of this. I am disappointed to see you fall into the same trap.
    I did not allude to "interference by foreigners ... " so your idea that I have fallen into a trap is both obtuse and mistaken. Nor have I been inconsistent in my opinions (beliefs) about the EU/EC/EEC/Common Market since around 1970. Your disappointment is of your own imagination.
    God I hope I've been inconsistent in my views.

    The fact is that evidence changes all the time.

    The one thing all successful investors have* is the ability to change their mind rapidly.

    * Not that I'm claiming to be a successful investor.
    Yeah but if you had been paying attention you would have noticed that the behaviour of the EU/EC/EEC/Common Market in reverse order was simply to intensify its less endearing features.
    But the EU/EEC/etc has always been a bundle of things that are right and things that are wrong. I think the EU has been far less protectionist than people tend to think, and I suspect our tariffs came down more quickly inside it than they would have done outside it. I think the Single European Passport for financial services regulation was undoubtedly a dramatic liberalising reform, that no one else in the world has come close to. I believe the EU did a good job, in the early days, of encouraging Eastern European countries to adopt democratic and institutional norms. And, while I believe that countries should have the right to discriminate in favour of their own citizens, I generally support the EU's belief in the free movement of labour.

    Liking those things about the EU did not make me want to stay in. I think the EU allowed our politicians to duck hard decisions. I think it is so far from voters, it cannot avoid a lack of democracy or transparency. I felt that the British legal and political systems were poor fits.

    When you write things like your above post, you are basically shouting to the world "whenever the EU does something, I will work out what I don't like about it." Which is, I admit, increasingly common in political discourse about anything these days. But it's not healthy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,898
    JosiasJessop said:

    To change the topic from burkhas and brexit, I've just finished a stroll into Glasgow. It's actually quite a nice city in parts.

    And better than Bedford...

    I did the Glasgow Subway last September - and the Edinburgh Tram :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Benpointer said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Jezza will be very pleased with Boris, that's for sure - he's diverted attention from Labour's disasterous anti-semitism issue.
    Works for both of them - a focus on Corbyn's troubles makes May look stronger by default (at least so long sa no negative stories abound), and the more people talk about that roguish Boris, who May cannot do anything about, the better for Boris.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Many thanks to White Rabbit andd Bromptonaut for their help.

    DavdL: I think the Boris story has persisted partly because it's August so newws is thin, but mainly because it's in the perceived interest of both Boris and his detractors: Boris thinks (probably correctly) that getting in the news increases his chance of being voted next leader by members, and his detractors think that the latest example of his freewheeling style increase the chance of persuading MPs to block him.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,630
    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, like bikini ads and grid girls?

    Got to prove how feminist we are by taking work from women to satisfy the terminally offended...

    I think people should be allowed to wear bikinis on the streets of London. I think they should be allowed to wear KKK outfits. I think firms should be allowed to avertise their products with either.

    (Although if I, as a newspaper publisher don't want to take an advert - for whatever reason - that is my concern. I shouldn't be obliged to carry something promoting gay marriage, scientology, or French cheese. It's my newspaper, and I'll starve if I want to.)
    They should be allowed to wear what they want and to be ridiculed for so doing if people wish to ridicule them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Recidivist said:

    I was just looking at the list of 92 seats who have switched from leave to remain. I can't help wondering if this is the Lexiters giving up on their long held views? These guys have been opposing the EU for longer than anyone and I thought that they would be the last ones to turn. Dennis Skinner is pretty much the archetype.

    Nobody has been talking about these guys much. They don't fit in with the liberal end of the left wing spectrum much, tending to be very white and quite conservative in many ways. And they certainly aren't Tories - they've got a world view that has almost no contact points with free market liberalism. They just sit there with nobody to vote for until by a fluke a referendum on a subject they are actually interested in turns up.

    But it must be pretty galling for them. They won't like any of the flavours of Brexit on offer. They sure won't like the company they are now keeping. And they really won't like the idea of becoming more dependant on Trump's America.

    I wonder if they'd switch to supporting the EU if that was the official Labour Party line? If so, the chances of Brexit happening and not being reversed become even more precariously dependant on the electoral fortunes of the Conservative Party.

    There was Yougov polling last February on what would be the most electorally successful position for Corbyn Labour and the answer was the current fudge.

    It certainly would be damaging for Labour to actively support Brexit, the polling showed that would give the Tories a 12% lead on 42% to 30% for Labour with the LDs leaping up to 22%.


    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/corbyn-risks-losing-young-voters-if-labour-backs-leaving-the-eu-a3758201.html

    However if Labour actively opposed Brexit they would also lose 1% of their vote compared to staying on the fence


    https://infacts.org/corbyn-backing-brexit-means-ballot-box-disaster/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,898
    IanB2 said:

    [Tory Peer Lord] Cooper said: “The rottenness of Boris Johnson goes deeper even than his casual racism and his equally casual courting of fascism. He will advocate literally anything to play to the crowd of the moment. His career is a saga of moral emptiness and lies; pathetic, weak and needy; the opposite of strong.”

    Islam is not a race.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    another_richard said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, like bikini ads and grid girls?

    Got to prove how feminist we are by taking work from women to satisfy the terminally offended...

    I think people should be allowed to wear bikinis on the streets of London. I think they should be allowed to wear KKK outfits. I think firms should be allowed to avertise their products with either.

    (Although if I, as a newspaper publisher don't want to take an advert - for whatever reason - that is my concern. I shouldn't be obliged to carry something promoting gay marriage, scientology, or French cheese. It's my newspaper, and I'll starve if I want to.)
    They should be allowed to wear what they want and to be ridiculed for so doing if people wish to ridicule them.
    Exactly
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,898
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Yay. Let's go banning things we don't like because it garners a few votes
    Boris didn't call for a ban.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Having got Trump elected in the US, Bannon is now focused on advising European nationalist parties like Lega Nord, the AfD, Front National and Fidesz through a coordination centre he has set up in Brussels called 'The Movement.' He will not therefore have a great deal of time to see Boris

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-24/steve-bannon-wants-to-divide-and-conquer-in-europe-too

    Boris is a 'movement' all by himself.

    Why wouldn't Bannon see Boris as part of the same project?
    One stage at a time, Bannon wants to create as much chaos as possible. First Trump, then populist nationalists the largest grouping in the European Parliament, then Boris as PM
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    rcs1000 said:

    https://twitter.com/marketwarbles/status/1028662625968697350

    If you are taking requests, may I ask you to cover the rise of National Populism as outlined by Matthew Goodwin et al? If you don't want to write the script, I'll do it.

    https://quillette.com/2018/08/03/britains-populist-revolt/
    https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/306038/national-populism/
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    IanB2 said:

    [Tory Peer Lord] Cooper said: “The rottenness of Boris Johnson goes deeper even than his casual racism and his equally casual courting of fascism. He will advocate literally anything to play to the crowd of the moment. His career is a saga of moral emptiness and lies; pathetic, weak and needy; the opposite of strong.”

    Islam is not a race.
    And presumably France, Austria and Denmark are fascist countries as they ban the burqa - which Boris does not advocate.

    Still who is Lord Cooper anyway - a hopeless pollster put in the Lords because he was a mate of Cameron.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,898
    edited August 2018
    another_richard said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. 1000, like bikini ads and grid girls?

    Got to prove how feminist we are by taking work from women to satisfy the terminally offended...

    I think people should be allowed to wear bikinis on the streets of London. I think they should be allowed to wear KKK outfits. I think firms should be allowed to avertise their products with either.

    (Although if I, as a newspaper publisher don't want to take an advert - for whatever reason - that is my concern. I shouldn't be obliged to carry something promoting gay marriage, scientology, or French cheese. It's my newspaper, and I'll starve if I want to.)
    They should be allowed to wear what they want and to be ridiculed for so doing if people wish to ridicule them.
    I mean if I decided to live up to my Nudistani heritage and pluck up the courage to walk around stark raving naked, wouldn't I expect to be ridiculed to infinity and beyond?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    Recidivist said:

    I was just looking at the list of 92 seats who have switched from leave to remain. I can't help wondering if this is the Lexiters giving up on their long held views? These guys have been opposing the EU for longer than anyone and I thought that they would be the last ones to turn. Dennis Skinner is pretty much the archetype.

    Nobody has been talking about these guys much. They don't fit in with the liberal end of the left wing spectrum much, tending to be very white and quite conservative in many ways. And they certainly aren't Tories - they've got a world view that has almost no contact points with free market liberalism. They just sit there with nobody to vote for until by a fluke a referendum on a subject they are actually interested in turns up.

    But it must be pretty galling for them. They won't like any of the flavours of Brexit on offer. They sure won't like the company they are now keeping. And they really won't like the idea of becoming more dependant on Trump's America.

    I wonder if they'd switch to supporting the EU if that was the official Labour Party line? If so, the chances of Brexit happening and not being reversed become even more precariously dependant on the electoral fortunes of the Conservative Party.

    There are some very interesting movements when you drill down into the figures. There are actually some small swings towards Brexit in traditional Tory shires seats which flatter the overall numbers. My suspicion is that there is a small-c conservative tendency to think that Brexit is just something we have to get on with, but that would evaporate if the question were put back to the people for real.

    Elsewhere some of the most Brexity seats have seen big swings to Remain. Thurrock was 70% Brexit in 2016 and now only 58%.

    https://donate.hopenothate.org.uk/page/content/britain-brexit-changing-minds/
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,630
    In soft fruit news Tesco had 59 1kg boxes of strawberries available at half price and dozens of 400g boxes available at quarter price.

    I wonder how many they managed to sell in the 20 minutes they had remaining.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    rcs1000 said:

    Liking those things about the EU did not make me want to stay in. I think the EU allowed our politicians to duck hard decisions. I think it is so far from voters, it cannot avoid a lack of democracy or transparency. I felt that the British legal and political systems were poor fits.

    Why is our legal and political system any more compatible with the EEA than the EU? Are you not guilty of starting from the position of not liking the EU for reasons of identity, and then trying to dress it up with an intellectual justification?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,898
    another_richard said:

    In soft fruit news Tesco had 59 1kg boxes of strawberries available at half price and dozens of 400g boxes available at quarter price.

    I wonder how many they managed to sell in the 20 minutes they had remaining.

    In sweetcorn news, bought a back from Tesco which had rotten bits in it, Promptly returned it, got a refund, and bought a decent pack from Sainsbury's.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    The whole burka thing has played into Boris's hands. I would not be surprised if he's even more popular than before. Straight out of Trump's playbook. Good for him.

    Yay. Let's go banning things we don't like because it garners a few votes
    Boris didn't call for a ban.
    However his father, sister and allies did almost immediately.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    williamglenn said:

    Recidivist said:

    I was just looking at the list of 92 seats who have switched from leave to remain. I can't help wondering if this is the Lexiters giving up on their long held views? These guys have been opposing the EU for longer than anyone and I thought that they would be the last ones to turn. Dennis Skinner is pretty much the archetype.

    Nobody has been talking about these guys much. They don't fit in with the liberal end of the left wing spectrum much, tending to be very white and quite conservative in many ways. And they certainly aren't Tories - they've got a world view that has almost no contact points with free market liberalism. They just sit there with nobody to vote for until by a fluke a referendum on a subject they are actually interested in turns up.

    But it must be pretty galling for them. They won't like any of the flavours of Brexit on offer. They sure won't like the company they are now keeping. And they really won't like the idea of becoming more dependant on Trump's America.

    I wonder if they'd switch to supporting the EU if that was the official Labour Party line? If so, the chances of Brexit happening and not being reversed become even more precariously dependant on the electoral fortunes of the Conservative Party.

    There are some very interesting movements when you drill down into the figures. There are actually some small swings towards Brexit in traditional Tory shires seats which flatter the overall numbers. My suspicion is that there is a small-c conservative tendency to think that Brexit is just something we have to get on with, but that would evaporate if the question were put back to the people for real.

    Elsewhere some of the most Brexity seats have seen big swings to Remain. Thurrock was 70% Brexit in 2016 and now only 58%.

    https://donate.hopenothate.org.uk/page/content/britain-brexit-changing-minds/
    The likes of Thurrock were concerned about immigration most of all, they would just about accept a work permits system but really wanted a points system and some would even slam the door shut altogether
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,778
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1028663039111979008
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Recidivist said:

    I was just looking at the list of 92 seats who have switched from leave to remain. I can't help wondering if this is the Lexiters giving up on their long held views? These guys have been opposing the EU for longer than anyone and I thought that they would be the last ones to turn. Dennis Skinner is pretty much the archetype.

    Nobody has been talking about these guys much. They don't fit in with the liberal end of the left wing spectrum much, tending to be very white and quite conservative in many ways. And they certainly aren't Tories - they've got a world view that has almost no contact points with free market liberalism. They just sit there with nobody to vote for until by a fluke a referendum on a subject they are actually interested in turns up.

    But it must be pretty galling for them. They won't like any of the flavours of Brexit on offer. They sure won't like the company they are now keeping. And they really won't like the idea of becoming more dependant on Trump's America.

    I wonder if they'd switch to supporting the EU if that was the official Labour Party line? If so, the chances of Brexit happening and not being reversed become even more precariously dependant on the electoral fortunes of the Conservative Party.

    There are some very interesting movements when you drill down into the figures. There are actually some small swings towards Brexit in traditional Tory shires seats which flatter the overall numbers. My suspicion is that there is a small-c conservative tendency to think that Brexit is just something we have to get on with, but that would evaporate if the question were put back to the people for real.

    Elsewhere some of the most Brexity seats have seen big swings to Remain. Thurrock was 70% Brexit in 2016 and now only 58%.

    https://donate.hopenothate.org.uk/page/content/britain-brexit-changing-minds/
    The likes of Thurrock were concerned about immigration most of all, they would just about accept a work permits system but really wanted a points system and some would even slam the door shut altogether
    Well they're swinging significantly to Remain now...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    IanB2 said:

    [Tory Peer Lord] Cooper said: “The rottenness of Boris Johnson goes deeper even than his casual racism and his equally casual courting of fascism. He will advocate literally anything to play to the crowd of the moment. His career is a saga of moral emptiness and lies; pathetic, weak and needy; the opposite of strong.”

    Islam is not a race.
    So what word would you use? "Sectarian"? "Theophobic"?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited August 2018
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Recidivist said:

    I was just looking at the list of 92 seats who have switched from leave to remain. I can't help wondering if this is the Lexiters giving up on their long held views? These guys have been opposing the EU for longer than anyone and I thought that they would be the last ones to turn. Dennis Skinner is pretty much the archetype.

    Nobody has been talking about these guys much. They don't fit in with the liberal end of the left wing spectrum much, tending to be very white and quite conservative in many ways. And they certainly aren't Tories - they've got a world view that has almost no contact points with free market liberalism. They just sit there with nobody to vote for until by a fluke a referendum on a subject they are actually interested in turns up.

    But it must be pretty galling for them. They won't like any of the flavours of Brexit on offer. They sure won't like the company they are now keeping. And they really won't like the idea of becoming more dependant on Trump's America.

    I wonder if they'd switch to supporting the EU if that was the official Labour Party line? If so, the chances of Brexit happening and not being reversed become even more precariously dependant on the electoral fortunes of the Conservative Party.

    There are some very interesting movements when you drill down into the figures. There are actually some small swings towards Brexit in traditional Tory shires seats which flatter the overall numbers. My suspicion is that there is a small-c conservative tendency to think that Brexit is just something we have to get on with, but that would evaporate if the question were put back to the people for real.

    Elsewhere some of the most Brexity seats have seen big swings to Remain. Thurrock was 70% Brexit in 2016 and now only 58%.

    https://donate.hopenothate.org.uk/page/content/britain-brexit-changing-minds/
    The likes of Thurrock were concerned about immigration most of all, they would just about accept a work permits system but really wanted a points system and some would even slam the door shut altogether
    Well they're swinging significantly to Remain now...
    58% Leave 42% Remain is not 'significantly Remain' it is comfortably more Leave even than the UK as a whole voted Leave in 2016.


    Plus this poll is on a similar Remain margin nationally as the final 2016 EU referendum polls just before the UK as a whole voted Leave
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,898
    viewcode said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    IanB2 said:

    [Tory Peer Lord] Cooper said: “The rottenness of Boris Johnson goes deeper even than his casual racism and his equally casual courting of fascism. He will advocate literally anything to play to the crowd of the moment. His career is a saga of moral emptiness and lies; pathetic, weak and needy; the opposite of strong.”

    Islam is not a race.
    So what word would you use? "Sectarian"? "Theophobic"?
    Boris is a Burqaphobe, surely?
This discussion has been closed.