As far as I can see from the information in the public domain, the poll in The Observer does not use the same method as the very successful YouGov poll before the election (i.e., it does not use Hamiltonian MCMC and Stan).
No it was commissioned by 2 diehard Remainer bodies 'Best for Britain' and 'Hope Not Hate' ie with a clear agenda to get an anti Brexit result.
It looks to me that Remania has become more Leave (perhaps following the lead of the Tory leaders, and PBers) while Leaverstan is getting more sceptical of what is increasingly a Tory Brexit.
It looks like the wind is blowing to Remain for Labour at least. The new division is remodelling as the old party lines. Jezza is going to have to shift, his house is increasingly made on sand.
It is bullshit as even polls nationally which have Remain ahead have the working class still with a Leave majority.
Sone shift in the Home Counties which only narrowly voted Leave maybe but not in the working class areas of the North and Midlands which had the biggest Leave margins
Sorry if it doesn't agree with your world view, but that poll does match my experience in the Midlands. Voters like kicking Tories in the goolies, which meant voting Leave when a Remainer was in charge, and supporting Remain now Tory policy is Leave. Simples!
No what complete and utter crap.
See Mansfield in the Midlands which went Tory for the first time in a century in 2017. Leave won mainly because of immigration and the biggest concern over immigration was working class areas, the middle class voted Remain
Face it, you are losing it. Polls are shifting and will shift further. Brexit will be the dead albatross hanging round the necks of the Tories for a generation.
Utter bullshit
The only poll that matters is the latest Yougov giving a 4% Tory lead as at the end of the day it is the government and the government and the majority party in Parliament alone which will decide whether we reverse Brexit and have a second EU referendum. That 4% Tory lead will give a small Tory majority for the Chequers Deal terms. This poll is irrelevant
It could be a 10% lead if May called a second referendum. Brexit betrayal is popular.
Not with over 70% of Tory voters backing Leave it would not.
We would end up with a Corbyn government if May called a second EU referendum and tried to reverse Brexit and in all likelihood the Tories would fall to third behind UKIP
Still causing trouble in the Cabinet even when he's not in it. While I don't want to see it happen, I can only imagine how well he'd manage a Cabinet, given the example he always set in how to behave.
What ever your views, Boris is a PR genius.
He and the Tories could have let the whole summer be about Jezza's love affair with Hezzbola, but no, Boris needs some oxygen.
Glad I am on Bozza at a whole stack of prices from 4 to 13.
It looks to me that Remania has become more Leave (perhaps following the lead of the Tory leaders, and PBers) while Leaverstan is gettingLabour at least. The new division is remodelling as the old party lines. Jezza is going to have to shift, his house is increasingly made on sand.
It is bullshit as even polls nationally which have Remain ahead have the working class still with a Leave majority.
Sone shift in the Home Counties which only narrowly voted Leave maybe but not in the working class areas of the North and Midlands which had the biggest Leave margins
Sor in the Midlands. Voters like in the goolies, which meant voting Leave when a Remainer was in charge, and supporting Remain now Tory policy is Leave. Simples!
No what complete and utter crap.
See Mansfield in the Midlands which went Tory for the first time in a century in 2017. Leave won mainly because of immigration and the biggest concern over immigration was working class areas, the middle class voted Remain
Face it, you are losing it. Polls are shifting and will shift further. Brexit will be the dead albatross hanging round the necks of the Tories for a generation.
Utter bullshit
The only poll that matters is the latest Yougov giving a 4% Tory lead as at the end of the day it is the government and the government and the majority party in Parliament alone which will decide whether we reverse Brexit and have a second EU referendum. That 4% Tory lead will give a small Tory majority for the Chequers Deal terms. This poll is irrelevant
It could be a 10% lead if May called a second referendum. Brexit betrayal is popular.
Not with over 70% of Tory voters backing Leave it would not.
We would end up with a Corbyn government if May called a second EU referendum and tried to reverse Brexit and in all likelihood the Tories would fall to third behind UKIP
56% of Tory voters think we’ll get a bad deal. 62% think Leave campaign promises will be broken. 47% think people were misled about the consequences. 20% of Tory Leavers would reconsider if we have to follow EU rules with no say after Brexit (I.e. Chequers).
Those are not solid numbers for Tory Brexit support.
It looks to me that Remania has become more Leave (perhaps following the lead of ade on sand.
It is bullshit as even polls nationally which have Remain ahead have the working class still with a Leave majority.
Sone shift in the Home Counties which only narrowly voted Leave maybe but not in the working class areas of the North and Midlands which had the biggest Leave margins
Sor in the Midlands. Voters like in the goolies, which meant voting Leave when a Remainer was in charge, and supporting Remain now Tory policy is Leave. Simples!
No what complete and utter crap.
See Mansfield in the Midlands which went Tory for the first time in a century in 2017. Leave won mainly because of immigration and the biggest concern over immigration was working class areas, the middle class voted Remain
Face it, you are losing it. Polls are shifting and will shift further. Brexit will be the dead albatross hanging round the necks of the Tories for a generation.
Utter bullshit
The only poll that matters is the latest Yougov giving a 4% Tory lead as at the end is poll is irrelevant
It could be a 10% lead if May called a second referendum. Brexit betrayal is popular.
Not with over 70% of Tory voters third behind UKIP
56% of Tory voters think we’ll get a bad deal. 62% think Leave campaign promises will be broken. 47% think people were misled about the consequences. 20% of Tory Leavers would reconsider if we have to follow EU rules with no say after Brexit (I.e. Chequers).
Those are not solid numbers for Tory Brexit support.
The Chequers Deal ends free movement and leaves the EU, at the end of the day that is the be all and end all for most Leavers bar the most diehard.
A reversal of Brexit to stay in the EU and keep free movement in place by the Tories though would be an unforgivable betrayal of the Brexit vote for most Leavers and inevitably see a mass defection of Tory Leavers to UKIP. We would end up with something like the 27% UKIP 23% Tory vote of the 2014 European elections rather than the 39% Tory 7% UKIP we have in the latest poll post Chequers Deal
Secret plot to oust Theresa May in Brexiteer putsch and install David Davis as 'interim' PM with Boris Johnson urged to delay his leadership bid until after Brexit
'Left-wing madrassas' indeed. Toby's losing his touch, it's all about the burqa at the mo'.
The most annoying thing about this meme/debate is that it keeps coming around and around - unis are full of lefty/social worker/Corbnista/PC lovers who teach this stuff all day long.
The History Man still stalks the corridors.
Yet, every example is from the Humanities.
A decent wodge of university life is science/engineering/maths etc etc.
I doubt a single one of those students has to listen to a single moment of left-wing madrassas material.
They are too busy trying to pass their course, do experiments, finish projects, whilst their lecturers are researching the future.
Sometimes you feel that if social media could be closed down for a few days it would have the same type of positive effect on people that Heathrow residents experienced when the Icelandic volcanic eruption closed down the airport a few years ago. For the first time in about 50 years they had a quiet day.
If I may interrupt for a moment, YouGov is using multi-level regression and post-stratification. It goes like this.
1) Yougov have an online panel of several thousand people. 2) They ask them the usual voting question. 3) Since they know the characteristics (age, sex, socioeconomic level, etc) of each panel member, they can construct a model to predict how those characteristics can vote (that's the "multi-level regression" bit) 4) Since they know the characteristics of voters in each constituency, they can use that model to predict how each constituency will vote (that's the "poststratification" bit) 5) Once they have done that for each constituency, they can predict the whole country
This approach is good but it is not perfect. Points to note:
1) You can't really use terms such as "margin of error" on this, as it's not a poll in the usual sense. It's a model based on poll data 2) It's not perfect: YouGov had good results with their MRP in 2017, but Lord Ashcroft did not.
Boris Dad now throw some more petrol on the fire. Called for a burka ban in Telegraph.
Anecdote
My lefty/anarchist wife was once automatically pro-Islamic dress, and pro-anything-Tories-wanted-to-Ban (and vice versa)
It's nothing to do with me, but in the last couple of years she has done a volte-face and is now enraged by her "idiotic lefty friends" who think the niqab and the burqa are just fine because "no man should tell a woman how to dress"
She sees this imbecility for what it is, despises the misogyny of the niqab, and is now, for the first time, actively confronting her universally lefty friends on their stupidity.
She describes it as an epiphany - e.g. one day she suddenly sat up straight and thought: "why the fuck am I defending this awful anti-women dress, and the patriarchal religion underlying it, just because it is brown people that tend to believe it?"
I watch on, politely distant and mildly alarmed, but also intrigued.
There is hope in the generation after the Millennials. The under 23s. They are really thinking. Through her I also see tentative evidence that UK Muslim women themselves are questioning the Patriarchy (and they really do face a Patriarchy)
Let us hope and/or pray.
I do not think you, or your wife know what you are talking about.
I just completed a major assessment into a Bangladeshi extended family, some of the women wore traditional dress, some didn't. What I got a clear sense of is that the women in the family were perfectly empowered, and had the final say on the decisions. The men work and the women manage the family and the household, including the men. And the children are really well looked after.
Isn’t that just another anecdote? As with everything, there’s probably a continuum.
And looking at individual points on the continuum is a perfectly valid way of studying it. Can we not drop this stupid convention of replying to any statement that anything happened with "anecdote"? It's based on a misunderstanding and over-generalisation of some rules about how to conduct medical research which are much leess widely applkicable than they are supposed to be. Every time we, for instance, convict people of murder it is on the basis of anecdote, not bloody double blinded randomised prospective surveys.
Secret plot to oust Theresa May in Brexiteer putsch and install David Davis as 'interim' PM with Boris Johnson urged to delay his leadership bid until after Brexit
Boris Dad now throw some more petrol on the fire. Called for a burka ban in Telegraph.
Anecdote
My lefty/anarchist wife was once automatically pro-Islamic dress, and pro-anything-Tories-wanted-to-Ban (and vice versa)
It's nothing to do with me, but in the last couple of years she has done a volte-face and is now enraged by her "idiotic lefty friends" who think the niqab and the burqa are just fine because "no man should tell a woman how to dress"
She sees this imbecility for what it is, despises the misogyny of the niqab, and is now, for the first time, actively confronting her universally lefty friends on their stupidity.
She describes it as an epiphany - e.g. one day she suddenly sat up straight and thought: "why the fuck am I defending this awful anti-women dress, and the patriarchal religion underlying it, just because it is brown people that tend to believe it?"
I watch on, politely distant and mildly alarmed, but also intrigued.
There is hope in the generation after the Millennials. The under 23s. They are really thinking. Through her I also see tentative evidence that UK Muslim women themselves are questioning the Patriarchy (and they really do face a Patriarchy)
Let us hope and/or pray.
I do not think you, or your wife know what you are talking about.
I just completed a major assessment into a Bangladeshi extended family, some of the women wore traditional dress, some didn't. What I got a clear sense of is that the women in the family were perfectly empowered, and had the final say on the decisions. The men work and the women manage the family and the household, including the men. And the children are really well looked after.
Isn’t that just another anecdote? As with everything, there’s probably a continuum.
And looking at individual points on the continuum is a perfectly valid way of studying it. Can we not drop this stupid convention of replying to any statement that anything happened with "anecdote"? It's based on a misunderstanding and over-generalisation of some rules about how to conduct medical research which are much leess widely applkicable than they are supposed to be. Every time we, for instance, convict people of murder it is on the basis of anecdote, not bloody double blinded randomised prospective surveys.
As long as you look at multiple points along the continuum, in a representative fashion.
Secret plot to oust Theresa May in Brexiteer putsch and install David Davis as 'interim' PM with Boris Johnson urged to delay his leadership bid until after Brexit
The 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales were examined for the study. It found that 112 had switched from Leave to Remain. The new analysis suggests there are now 341 seats with majority Remain support, up from 229 seats at the referendum.
One seat has switched support in Scotland and 97 have switched in England, while 14 of the 40 seats in Wales have changed from Leave to Remain. Overall, the model puts Remain on 53% support, with 47% backing Leave....
...Data scientists compiling the study used a technique known as multi-level regression and post-stratification, similar to that used by YouGov in its pre-election model, which proved far more accurate than conventional opinion polls. However, the polling sample used by YouGov for its election model was much bigger, covering some 50,000 people.
Among the constituencies to switch from Leave to Remain is that of Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary and face of the Leave campaign. Support for Remain in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency has risen from 43.6% to 51.4%, according to the new model.
Surrey Heath, the constituency of the other Leave figurehead, Michael Gove, also emerged as having a pro-Remain majority. Support for Remain increased from 48% in 2016 to 50.2%. There was also a 12.8-point swing to Remain in shadow chancellor John McDonnell’s seat of Hayes and Harlington.
The seats of three pro-Leave Labour MPs switched to Remain. Birkenhead, Frank Field’s constituency, now has a 58.4% majority in favour of Remain. Graham Stringer’s Blackley and Broughton constituency now has a 59% in favour of Remain. Kelvin Hopkins’s Luton North seat now has 53.1% backing Remain.
Secret plot to oust Theresa May in Brexiteer putsch and install David Davis as 'interim' PM with Boris Johnson urged to delay his leadership bid until after Brexit
The 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales were examined for the study. It found that 112 had switched from Leave to Remain. The new analysis suggests there are now 341 seats with majority Remain support, up from 229 seats at the referendum.
One seat has switched support in Scotland and 97 have switched in England, while 14 of the 40 seats in Wales have changed from Leave to Remain. Overall, the model puts Remain on 53% support, with 47% backing Leave....
...Data scientists compiling the study used a technique known as multi-level regression and post-stratification, similar to that used by YouGov in its pre-election model, which proved far more accurate than conventional opinion polls. However, the polling sample used by YouGov for its election model was much bigger, covering some 50,000 people.
Among the constituencies to switch from Leave to Remain is that of Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary and face of the Leave campaign. Support for Remain in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency has risen from 43.6% to 51.4%, according to the new model.
Surrey Heath, the constituency of the other Leave figurehead, Michael Gove, also emerged as having a pro-Remain majority. Support for Remain increased from 48% in 2016 to 50.2%. There was also a 12.8-point swing to Remain in shadow chancellor John McDonnell’s seat of Hayes and Harlington.
The seats of three pro-Leave Labour MPs switched to Remain. Birkenhead, Frank Field’s constituency, now has a 58.4% majority in favour of Remain. Graham Stringer’s Blackley and Broughton constituency now has a 59% in favour of Remain. Kelvin Hopkins’s Luton North seat now has 53.1% backing Remain.
Didn't you miss Ed Milliband becoming PM following a hung parliament leading a coalition with the SNP in 2015
Or Clinton winning by a landslide
Or Mrs May winning a majority of over 100 in June 2017
Or indeed remain leading by 4 and 10 per cent in the last two polls published before the referendum count began on 23 June 2016.
Such great predictors almost all of those pollsters weren't they!
Why don't we just abolish actual elections of tens of millions of people, let you gov decide the results and spend the money saved on holding elections on the NHS instead!
The overall numbers in this poll across the UK are 53% Remain 47% Leave.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll had Remain 52% Leave 48% and the result was 52% Leave 48% Remain.
On the same margin of error as 2016 then even on this poll in the Observer Leave would win 51% to 49% for Remain
The poll may or may not be accurate. The huge difference with 2016 is that pollsters ask how people voted last time and know what the result of that referendum was. It should make weighting much easier. If people say they will change their vote, that's significant.
We’d have thought that political journalists would understand the process by which the major parties choose their leader, it’s not as if the process isn’t well documented.
Comments
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6051125/Pictured-Day-Jeremy-Corbyn-gave-speech-wedding-alleged-Holocaust-denier.html
If you read it carefully, it seems that when Jezza gave a speech at his wedding this guy hadn't been exposed as a holocaust denier.
He does seem to pick some interesting mates though, Red Ken, Gerry Adams, etc etc etc.
We would end up with a Corbyn government if May called a second EU referendum and tried to reverse Brexit and in all likelihood the Tories would fall to third behind UKIP
He and the Tories could have let the whole summer be about Jezza's love affair with Hezzbola, but no, Boris needs some oxygen.
Glad I am on Bozza at a whole stack of prices from 4 to 13.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-6050835/Rachel-Johnson-apologise-brother-Boris-didnt-NEARLY-far-enough.html
Those are not solid numbers for Tory Brexit support.
https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1028180500286976000
'Left-wing madrassas' indeed. Toby's losing his touch, it's all about the burqa at the mo'.
A reversal of Brexit to stay in the EU and keep free movement in place by the Tories though would be an unforgivable betrayal of the Brexit vote for most Leavers and inevitably see a mass defection of Tory Leavers to UKIP. We would end up with something like the 27% UKIP 23% Tory vote of the 2014 European elections rather than the 39% Tory 7% UKIP we have in the latest poll post Chequers Deal
If he or Javid or Hunt win, then I get to dine out.
Secret plot to oust Theresa May in Brexiteer putsch and install David Davis as 'interim' PM with Boris Johnson urged to delay his leadership bid until after Brexit
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/brexit/article-6051043/Plot-oust-Theresa-David-Davis-interim-PM-Boris-Johnson-urged-delay-bid.html
The final Yougov EU referendum poll had Remain 52% Leave 48% and the result was 52% Leave 48% Remain.
On the same margin of error as 2016 then even on this poll in the Observer Leave would win 51% to 49% for Remain
The History Man still stalks the corridors.
Yet, every example is from the Humanities.
A decent wodge of university life is science/engineering/maths etc etc.
I doubt a single one of those students has to listen to a single moment of left-wing madrassas material.
They are too busy trying to pass their course, do experiments, finish projects, whilst their lecturers are researching the future.
Grrrr...
If I may interrupt for a moment, YouGov is using multi-level regression and post-stratification. It goes like this.
1) Yougov have an online panel of several thousand people.
2) They ask them the usual voting question.
3) Since they know the characteristics (age, sex, socioeconomic level, etc) of each panel member, they can construct a model to predict how those characteristics can vote (that's the "multi-level regression" bit)
4) Since they know the characteristics of voters in each constituency, they can use that model to predict how each constituency will vote (that's the "poststratification" bit)
5) Once they have done that for each constituency, they can predict the whole country
This approach is good but it is not perfect. Points to note:
1) You can't really use terms such as "margin of error" on this, as it's not a poll in the usual sense. It's a model based on poll data
2) It's not perfect: YouGov had good results with their MRP in 2017, but Lord Ashcroft did not.
If you know all this already, I apologise.
Or Clinton winning by a landslide
Or Mrs May winning a majority of over 100 in June 2017
Or indeed remain leading by 4 and 10 per cent in the last two polls published before the referendum count began on 23 June 2016.
Such great predictors almost all of those pollsters weren't they!
Why don't we just abolish actual elections of tens of millions of people, let you gov decide the results and spend the money saved on holding elections on the NHS instead!
Thread is now OLD
So Uni admissions being down is expected.