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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Answering a poll question is NOT the same as having an opinion
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Answering a poll question is NOT the same as having an opinion
Unsurprising titbit in here – an MP thinks the public have a view on ‘Chequers’. No. Answering a poll question. is not the same as having an actual opinion. https://t.co/IBS1uB1uW0
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It is a classic fudged compromise but the only one which can bridge some of the gap between Remainers and Leavers at the moment
They keep it interesting up there thesedays, I'll grant that.
What will be hilarious is if he doesn't even stand again (I rate this as very unlikely, even having been surprised last time - his actions making a play for the leadership are simply too blatant not to do it this time)..
If he is not in the final two, and there is not some other hard leaver who for some reason got in ahead of him, I would assume a lot of anger.
Limbo Brexit is what happens next.
Last reminder that the game starts tonight, it's free to enter and anyone wishing to join in and play in the PB league, the reference is:
2325796-533763
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/
Always worth playing as TSE is usually last placed so that's free banter on here.....
* extreme sarcasm.
It’s not exactly a new phenomenon, either; vide Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Foot, William Hague, Ed Milliband, etc. And look what a success those all turned out to be. The party members who elected them really had their fingers on the pulse of appeal to the wider electorate.
Indeed arguably Labour is more divided on Brexit than the Tories e.g. most Tory voters and Tory held seats voted Leave but while most Labour voters voted Remain most Labour seats voted Leave once you move away from the inner city Labour seats where Remain won by huge margins
People who like Boris talking to other people who like Boris.
People who like Jeremy talking to other people who like Jeremy (or shouting at those who don’t).
People who love the EU talking to others who love the EU, and think that saying it’s too hard to leave will persuade those who voted leave to reconsider.
Wouldn't want him running the country, mind.
And as I write another one goes caught in the slips. 61/5.
*remembers the membership voted for David Miliband*
*looks at Labour Party again*
*shakes head with disbelief*
Quite so.
That brought a wry smile, in view of some of recent discussions we've had here...
https://twitter.com/lukecooper100/status/1027916239073669120
I wonder if that will be so eagerly reported by the twatter crowd who spouted fake news about it in recent months ?
At least I wasn’t one of probably several thousand who sat all day in the rain and left early expecting my money back.
But we can conclude, for example, that at a minimum the public do not understand the rationale of the Chequers proposal and do not trust Theresa May to have a rationale that they agree with.
One day I'll learn
All murderers should be executed
All murderers should be released
Don't know
I do know, but there's no box to tick.
You know already that the public don't understand the rationale of the Chequers' plan. I can't imagine anyone thinks its anything other than an uncomfortable compromise. Mrs May is perhaps trusted (a little) to make a decent compromise.
A full two years after the referendum, in late June, Theresa May was still sounding like a baffling professor of formal logic, having advanced the conversation on from “Brexit means Brexit” to “Brexit means Brexit does mean Brexit.” She still had nothing concrete to say about what leaving the EU would involve.
Then, at the start of July, she finally moved beyond gnomic utterance, convening her cabinet in Chequers to settle the real choices—a single market in goods, but not services or labour, “taking account of” European Court of Justice rulings and so on. It was all fantasy, in the sense that there was no reason to believe the EU would buy it, but for today’s Conservative Party it proved too much even to get specific in the realm of fiction, and her cabinet started to crumble.
The root reason for this is that, with no positive vision of a future outside Europe from the right, and none for a future inside it from the left, there has been no change at all in the range of Brexit options that can be considered as logical possibilities. That still stretches, just as it did in summer 2016, from a no-deal, cliff-edge Brexit to the softest, greatest-possible-alignment Brexit.
An unfolding impossibility
“What about no Brexit?” is still unsayable—which seems strange given the dwindling band who still pretend that any of the available Brexits are at all satisfactory: either we will be submitting to rules we can no longer write, or driving the economy over a cliff.
Despite the government dissolving into entropy and rage, a new line of thought is gaining traction: there cannot be any good option, because to reverse Brexit would be as bad as to execute it. If you think the nation is divided now, just wait until you try and thwart it in its democratically expressed will.
It is bizarre to watch some Conservatives say this explicitly: Priti Patel tweeting, “This is no longer an argument about whether Brexit was a good idea, but is about democracy… the public want to know that political leaders will stay true to the promise made to them that Brexit means Brexit.” As the impossibility of Brexit unfolds, the act itself becomes irrelevant: all that matters is the decision to act.
This is quite an interesting cognitive trajectory. Here are two propositions. First, however unproductive anyone expected the Brexit negotiations to be, the reality is proving worse for the country and its citizens.
...
I’d agree that Corbyn isn’t a competent leader, and nor would Boris be. But perhaps party members see it that more centrist candidates aren’t that much of an improvement in terms of competency and electability in order to make them put aside ideological purity.
Cricket can be really annoying sometimes.
Edit: if we don’t get em out first. 96/9.
England will be batting at 7 30
I have genuinely found the mass LD to Con switch in Scotland utterly surprising. I wish there was se serious academic research into the topic.
Given the same margin of error Leave with or without a Deal combined would be on 53%.
It is more important to control immigration from the EU than have free trade: 29
It is more important to ensure Britain can trade freely with the EU without tariffs or restrictions than to control immigration: 50
However, the important figure here is the stance of Conservative voters, which is a very narrow 44/42 over prioritising immigration control, which (whilst closer than I'd have assumed and guaranteeing May will piss off a big tranche of her own supporters either way) is still net anti for the Conservatives and that's what May will be chiefly concerned with.
What is relevant is 54% back the plan in the Chequers Deal to require a job offer or study place for EU citizens who want to come and live in the UK
To test this the other way you could ask whether to Leave the EU or Remain in the EU and join the euro and join schengen, or Remain in the EU without Dave’s renegotiation and pay slightly high budget contributions, and then “recode” that.
I suspect you’d get a small Leave lead.
Only on PB.
The problem is that it’s only a minority of this polling that’s genuinely being used to objectively test public opinion at the moment; most of it is push polling designed to be published with a desired headline in mind in order to influence political outcomes.
Anyway, Sunday looks a washout and I don't believe any forecast beyond 48 hours!
Even with No Deal the only Leave option Remain still cannot even get to 60% and Leave gets over 40%. We remain as divided on Brexit as we were before the referendum
It’s the precise inverse of that polling, testing the reality of that question the other way round.
The question would then be how much the EU want us back - if they don't want us back it won't matter.