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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Celebrating Theresa May – against all odds she’s still there a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Celebrating Theresa May – against all odds she’s still there and looks to continue to Brexit and beyond
My most significant betting loss since the last election has been on Theresa May failing to survive 2017. This was placed in the aftermath of her disastrous conference speech last October which just seemed to sum up her whole predicament – trying to carry on after losing the party its majority.
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Very good piece this.
Glenn Kessler, the editor and chief writer of the Post’s Fact Checker column, who is collating a massive database of Trump repeated, daily lies.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-trumps-washington/trumps-escalating-war-on-the-truth-is-on-purpose?mbid=social_twitter
I can't believe she thinks that she is the best person to be PM, and she must know that she can't lead the Tories into the next election, and yet she keeps taking the crap, day after day.
In the words of a well-known mushy pea lover, she is a fighter not a quitter.
It is not worth celebrating if you want a hard Brexit or want to remain.
According to Yougov, that means 17% will be celebrating and 83% will not (50% remainers and 33% hard brexiters).
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-rohingya-muslims-aung-san-suu-kyi-burma-labour-leader-call-end-violence-a7968916.html
The headbangers should be pleased that they won the referendum & have the possibility of the opportunity to shape the future their way.
The remainers should take comfort that in defeat, they have one of their own in charge of negotiations, and little will change for the foreseeable.
The referendum result wasn't a mandate for revolution. Maybe BINO is the right outcome at this stage.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1025724542558396416
Destruction of the soft left- running a fearmongering general election campaign that pretended that Miliband's Labour was hard left
Brexit- calling a referendum for the sake of party management, destroying the centre and soft left (as above), taking advantage of Sindyref to damage Labour in Scotland which made Labour nervous about sharing a platform with Remain Tories
Popular support for increased spending- branding his spending reductions as temporary austerity
Cameron's problem in that regard is that if things turn out ok in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement by backing Remain. If things turn out poorly in the end, he looks like he has poor judgement because he held the referendum.
To his credit, he did respond with democratic choice to the rising tide of scepticism. Not his fault, but the time for a referendum was Lisbon (or earlier). The duplicity of Brown and Labour prevented that, which would've allowed the electorate to indicate their displeasure at ever more integration without leaving entirely.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/the-antisemitism-row-shows-us-what-a-disaster-corbyn-would-be-as-pm-a3902331.html
https://www.reddit.com/r/TrumpCriticizesTrump/
Excellent thread OGH and agree with the sentiments you convey about all the parties you mention!
He didn’t. He was far more interested in shafting Nick Clegg and ensuring a Tory majority. Having done that he wasn’t sure what to do.
Trump seems to be mainly retweeting the Drudge Report at the moment.
Do people want me to?
Unless, I suppose, Boris or some other prominent Leaver thinks it's in their interest to have a BINO transition period which they can then campaign against in their leadership bid. But then the transition still wouldn't survive the next leader
The Man, TLG and Foxy. Have you not done your team yet TSE?
For new recruits (it's free too), the code to use is
2325796-533763
https://www.premierleague.com/this-is-pl/
More generally though, all anyone would have had to do was pick an off-the-shelf deal (or no deal) to fall back to if we couldn't get a bespoke deal, and ensured preparations were ongoing for whichever option that was.
Mr. Divvie, there does seem to be some variety in gins (recently bought a small gift pack of gin miniatures for a friend).
Mr. Divvie (2), if Scotland had left the UK by now, you'd be out of the EU and the remainder of the UK would be in. Which is quite ironic.
I’d rather drink the gins with some water and use ‘ordinary’gins... or vodka..... for the tonic waters.
Like the transfer activity at Tottenham, I'm late to the party.
At least even in that scenario we would be deciding for ourselves if we wanted to re-apply rather than having our EU status imposed on us. Still, one major prop of Project Fear I kicked away for evermore.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/04/tory-leadership-contest-coming-soon-storm-clouds-gathering-theresa/
Moreover, harsh though North's press is because people tend to remember only the loss of the American colonies and not the twelve years of mostly quite effective government, it is ludicrous and indeed ignorant to suggest he was worse than Brown, Rosebery, Chamberlain, Russell, Melbourne, Portland, Rockingham, Shelburne, Addington or above all Goderich, who was absolutely the worst Prime Minister this country has ever had.
Having granted the EU referendum I think that Parliament is obliged to act upon it, but there shouldn't be any more of them save for in two circumstances only:
1. If the UK Parliament wishes to surrender sovereignty in an irreversible manner, for example if we were to stay in the EU and it were subsequently proposed that the EU should become a nation state and we should be subsumed within it.
2. Because of its special circumstances (i.e. sectarian politics and the terms of the peace settlement,) the ability to call a Border Poll will need to be retained for Northern Ireland.
With hindsight, it would've been infinitely preferable if we'd stayed put in the EU unless or until a majority of MPs in favour of leaving were elected, in which case they could've withdrawn under their own authority by passing the relevant legislation without having to put the country itself through the blender to obtain permission.
Likewise, because the UK is generally accepted to be a voluntary association, I would be in favour of establishing a legislative framework that allows a majority of the relevant legislators (MSPs, AMs, or MPs returned by English constituencies only) to begin the process of leaving the UK for their country, provided that their intention to vote for such an outcome had been formally declared in their election manifestos in an agreed form of words.
Germany, because of its history, outlawed referendums. We should learn from our history and restrict their use as well.
Given that actually IS our choice, I suspect most Leavers will opt for doing what we are told rather than participation, but they will complain bitterly about it.
BINO doesn't exist. It's Vassal State and much worse.
The key point though is that however 'Brexity' another leader might have been it would have been unlikely they would have called a referendum. That was Cameron's idea and it was controversial even among Conservatives - Osborne for example was opposed.
Looking at the BSA surveys, public opinion turned very hostile towards the EU after 1992. There were two big jumps in hostility, 1995-97, and 2008-12, which were not reversed.
One can argue that Eden, Douglas-Home and Brown were poor PMs but none of them caused the greatest constitutional crisis for 300 years. That's apparently what Dominic Grieve thinks, and I tend to defer to people like him, but R4 cut him off after he said this and didn't let him expand his argument.
EEA mbership but not EU membership is where the UK most likely ends up in a decade anyway once immigration has been brought under control
To take an example from 30ish years ago, only now are we giving the Heath administration some objective analysis (I have a book of essays which purports to be a reassessment published perhaps 15 years ago - interesting but too early. Reading it now gives distance and some of it seems fairer).
Edit- The Heath Government 1970 - 1974 edited by Ball and Selsdon, published 1996. Recommended.
That all the talk of "Europe is coming our way", "France will need an ally against Germany / Germany will need an ally against France", "we need to make concessions now to get some influence in the future" etc was bollox to cover up their failure.
And they weren't going to do that willingly.
"The nature of this national identity was the first in-built advantage for Leave. ‘Englishness,’ or feeling very strongly attached to the nation, became a key tributary of the Leave vote. Whereas 64 percent of people who felt ‘English not British’ saw Britain’s membership of the EU as a ‘bad thing,’ among those who felt ‘British not English’ this crashed to 28 percent. The more English people felt the more likely that they would support Brexit.
"It was, therefore, no surprise when in later years most people simply never developed an affective attachment to the idea of European integration. The British had perhaps always been suspicious of power hierarchies that felt remote and lacking in democratic accountability. But they had also been wary of identities that claimed to supersede the nation."
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pJOHuY7BJmc
Over that period, we've had Jacobite revolts, the American War, the Gordon Riots, Revolutionary ferment in the 1790's, the Luddites, near-revolt over the Reform Acts, the Swing Riots, the Suffragettes, the Home Rule Crisis, the General Strike etc.
I think some people see 1973 as Year Zero.
Whether you do actually build real popular consent for the project on that basis is more questionable.
One advantage to ending up with some form of Norwayesque fudge is that it would infuriate the ultra-Leavers and the ultra-Remainers in equal measure, which can only be a good thing.
They have been agitating for a break up of our Union whilst at the same time trying to do all they can to maximise subsidy of Scotland and interfere in English politics. It looks very, very ungrateful
‘Like Scotland; dislike the SNP’, is, I suspect the view of the majority of English voters.
Neither though are the worst PMs we have had since WW2 let alone Lord North, I would rank Eden, Heath, Callaghan and Brown worse than Blair and Cameron
The optimum pretension to cost ratio is to fill an empty bottle of fancy gin with supermarket own label gin and then mix it with ordinary tonic from a fancy tonic bottle.
Incidentally, I haven’t seen him posting recently. Has he stopped?
Cameron took us out again by mistake. That is why he is the worst prime minister since Lord North, and even he had the excuse of colonials taking potshots. Cameron did not want or intend Brexit, and nor was it forced upon him by external events. He was asleep at the wheel.