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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo back on top of the ConHome preferred next leader ratings

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  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,336
    On a more serious note, even if Corbyn is toppled, surely McDonnell wouldn't get enough nominations to replace him? Realistically the Left will need to pool all their votes behind one candidate to secure a place on the ballot paper, and there must be enough out there who hate McDonnell's guts to make him implausible?

    Thornberry is probably the value bet there, even though I think McDonnell is abler than she is.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,336

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I do hope Corbyn goes, and May clings on like a limpet - someone's matched the speculative 800-1 I've got on Old McDonnell becoming the UK's next PM.

    And on that farm he had some fat cats...
    E-I-R-A-O...
    With a Mao Mao here, and a Mao Mao there...
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Cyclefree said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MJW said:
    Starting to think Corbyn might actually swing from the yardarm over this. The tories are (even more) fucked if he does.
    Neo-Nazis, KKK - is there no violent racist group Corbyn won't associate with?

    Blairites
    huehuehuehue

    Bit of politics ladies and gentlemen.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    ydoethur said:

    On a more serious note, even if Corbyn is toppled, surely McDonnell wouldn't get enough nominations to replace him? Realistically the Left will need to pool all their votes behind one candidate to secure a place on the ballot paper, and there must be enough out there who hate McDonnell's guts to make him implausible?

    Thornberry is probably the value bet there, even though I think McDonnell is abler than she is.

    At the same odds they would be, but she's the 7 / 7.6 favourite to take over from Corbyn on Betfair which doesn't look particularly stunning to either back or lay to me.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,534
    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, yet more journalists confusing border checks of people with “Freedom of Movement”, which specifically in EU terminology means entitlement to National Insurance numbers and state benefits, nothing whatsoever to do with borders.

    Oh, and of course there’s precisely no chance of the UK doing anything about the NI goods border, that’s entirely Varakdar’s and Drunker’s problem if there’s no deal.
    The UK government will have its hands full ensuring there is adequate food to worry about things like National Insurance numbers.
    I hope you're stocking up on canned foods.
    I wonder how the NIESR think we’re going to maintain any economic growth under hard Brexit in an environment where none of us have enough to eat?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NIESRorg/status/1024599732935684096

    In reality, I think the NIESR is slightly too optimistic in the short term and pessimistic in the long term, but the ideas of starvation should be callled our for the lunancy that they are.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    ydoethur said:

    On a more serious note, even if Corbyn is toppled, surely McDonnell wouldn't get enough nominations to replace him? Realistically the Left will need to pool all their votes behind one candidate to secure a place on the ballot paper, and there must be enough out there who hate McDonnell's guts to make him implausible?

    Thornberry is probably the value bet there, even though I think McDonnell is abler than she is.

    The democracy roadshow is partly about changing the Rule book to make it easier for lefties to get on the ballot.

    Ain't no way in heck Corbyn will go before those changes are approved by conference.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    ydoethur said:

    On a more serious note, even if Corbyn is toppled, surely McDonnell wouldn't get enough nominations to replace him? Realistically the Left will need to pool all their votes behind one candidate to secure a place on the ballot paper, and there must be enough out there who hate McDonnell's guts to make him implausible?

    Thornberry is probably the value bet there, even though I think McDonnell is abler than she is.

    I believe the threshold now is 10% of MPs + MEPs = 10% * [258 + 20] = 28. McDonnell could easily get that, if he wins the internal primaryesque battle for the Corbynite nomination.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,534

    Scott_P said:
    How is the pathetic grovelling tour of Europe working out?

    No evidence of any appetite for a change in strategy from the EU27 from where I'm sitting.
    You see, whenever you post something like that I know you’re worried that it might be effective.

    May is doing what she should be doing: negotiating.

    We shall see where it leads.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, yet more journalists confusing border checks of people with “Freedom of Movement”, which specifically in EU terminology means entitlement to National Insurance numbers and state benefits, nothing whatsoever to do with borders.

    Oh, and of course there’s precisely no chance of the UK doing anything about the NI goods border, that’s entirely Varakdar’s and Drunker’s problem if there’s no deal.
    The UK government will have its hands full ensuring there is adequate food to worry about things like National Insurance numbers.
    I hope you're stocking up on canned foods.
    I wonder how the NIESR think we’re going to maintain any economic growth under hard Brexit in an environment where none of us have enough to eat?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NIESRorg/status/1024599732935684096

    In reality, I think the NIESR is slightly too optimistic in the short term and pessimistic in the long term, but the ideas of starvation should be callled our for the lunancy that they are.
    It's just all part of the steady denigration of what;s reported

    those moaning most about fake news are simply griping that everyone else has caught them up

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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, yet more journalists confusing border checks of people with “Freedom of Movement”, which specifically in EU terminology means entitlement to National Insurance numbers and state benefits, nothing whatsoever to do with borders.

    Oh, and of course there’s precisely no chance of the UK doing anything about the NI goods border, that’s entirely Varakdar’s and Drunker’s problem if there’s no deal.
    The UK government will have its hands full ensuring there is adequate food to worry about things like National Insurance numbers.
    I hope you're stocking up on canned foods.
    Try emptying the spam folder - should keep him going for months.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    You see, whenever you post something like that I know you’re worried that it might be effective.

    May is doing what she should be doing: negotiating.

    We shall see where it leads.

    I agree something needs to unblock the logjam, but I'm not sure "desperate grovelling prostrate at the feet of our European masters" is quite the show of UK strength we actually need.

    I can understand that pity is pretty much the only card May has left but still... Merkel doesn't look to me like a woman who knows pity.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,336

    ydoethur said:

    On a more serious note, even if Corbyn is toppled, surely McDonnell wouldn't get enough nominations to replace him? Realistically the Left will need to pool all their votes behind one candidate to secure a place on the ballot paper, and there must be enough out there who hate McDonnell's guts to make him implausible?

    Thornberry is probably the value bet there, even though I think McDonnell is abler than she is.

    I believe the threshold now is 10% of MPs + MEPs = 10% * [258 + 20] = 28. McDonnell could easily get that, if he wins the internal primaryesque battle for the Corbynite nomination.
    You're right, I thought it was still 15%.

    However, that still leaves your second hurdle.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,534


    You see, whenever you post something like that I know you’re worried that it might be effective.

    May is doing what she should be doing: negotiating.

    We shall see where it leads.

    I agree something needs to unblock the logjam, but I'm not sure "desperate grovelling prostrate at the feet of our European masters" is quite the show of UK strength we actually need.

    I can understand that pity is pretty much the only card May has left but still... Merkel doesn't look to me like a woman who knows pity.
    How do you know she’s grovelling and not explaining to them the serious consequences to European financial stability in security in the event of “no deal”, which more likely than not would result in direct damage to them and Jeremy Corbyn decimating the UK’s security services? Yes, the EU want to politically stabilise the EU. They also want a physically secure and economically stable continent.

    Her offence to many is that she might succeed in reaching an acceptable deal.
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    ydoethur said:

    On a more serious note, even if Corbyn is toppled, surely McDonnell wouldn't get enough nominations to replace him? Realistically the Left will need to pool all their votes behind one candidate to secure a place on the ballot paper, and there must be enough out there who hate McDonnell's guts to make him implausible?

    Thornberry is probably the value bet there, even though I think McDonnell is abler than she is.

    The democracy roadshow is partly about changing the Rule book to make it easier for lefties to get on the ballot.

    Ain't no way in heck Corbyn will go before those changes are approved by conference.
    Conversely, is that why the Labour MPs are laying into this now with such vigour (that isn’t a comment about the validity of their concerns, but given that many of the stories are several years old it’s not solely driven by current events)? Last chance before conference etc.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    ydoethur said:

    On a more serious note, even if Corbyn is toppled, surely McDonnell wouldn't get enough nominations to replace him? Realistically the Left will need to pool all their votes behind one candidate to secure a place on the ballot paper, and there must be enough out there who hate McDonnell's guts to make him implausible?

    Thornberry is probably the value bet there, even though I think McDonnell is abler than she is.

    I believe the threshold now is 10% of MPs + MEPs = 10% * [258 + 20] = 28. McDonnell could easily get that, if he wins the internal primaryesque battle for the Corbynite nomination.
    Thornberry must be a value bet.

    * She's of the left, and acceptable to the Corbynistas without being personally tainted by him.
    * She's moderate, educated, middle class London enough to be acceptable to the Umunnites.
    * She's popular on social media because she gives good meme
    * She comes across as human on the news

    etc. etc.
  • Options
    @MJW James Thring didn't do the "opening speech" at Corbyn's event. The main speaker was delayed and Thring just got up and spoke; he was never asked to.

  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    ydoethur said:

    On a more serious note, even if Corbyn is toppled, surely McDonnell wouldn't get enough nominations to replace him? Realistically the Left will need to pool all their votes behind one candidate to secure a place on the ballot paper, and there must be enough out there who hate McDonnell's guts to make him implausible?

    Thornberry is probably the value bet there, even though I think McDonnell is abler than she is.

    I believe the threshold now is 10% of MPs + MEPs = 10% * [258 + 20] = 28. McDonnell could easily get that, if he wins the internal primaryesque battle for the Corbynite nomination.
    Thornberry must be a value bet.

    * She's of the left, and acceptable to the Corbynistas without being personally tainted by him.
    * She's moderate, educated, middle class London enough to be acceptable to the Umunnites.
    * She's popular on social media because she gives good meme
    * She comes across as human on the news

    etc. etc.
    Unusually, the favourites for both major parties look like value to me.

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-labour-leader
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    Her offence to many is that she might succeed in reaching an acceptable deal.

    If May somehow manages to bring back a deal she can sell to Parliament I will eat SeanT.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    @MJW James Thring didn't do the "opening speech" at Corbyn's event. The main speaker was delayed and Thring just got up and spoke; he was never asked to.

    But nobody told him to sit down and STFU..... How convenient.

    And welcome.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130


    You see, whenever you post something like that I know you’re worried that it might be effective.

    May is doing what she should be doing: negotiating.

    We shall see where it leads.

    I agree something needs to unblock the logjam, but I'm not sure "desperate grovelling prostrate at the feet of our European masters" is quite the show of UK strength we actually need.

    I can understand that pity is pretty much the only card May has left but still... Merkel doesn't look to me like a woman who knows pity.
    How do you know she’s grovelling and not explaining to them the serious consequences to European financial stability in security in the event of “no deal”, which more likely than not would result in direct damage to them and Jeremy Corbyn decimating the UK’s security services? Yes, the EU want to politically stabilise the EU. They also want a physically secure and economically stable continent.

    Her offence to many is that she might succeed in reaching an acceptable deal.
    Jeremy Hunt was on French radio saying that we don't want any customs borders at all and we want totally free trade with Europe. It's pretty clear that they define 'success' as finding a way to stay in the single market and customs union without losing office.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,336
    It is interesting however to note that most of this is not new:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3191508/Jeremy-Corbyn-hosts-event-anti-Semitic-conspiracy-theorist-gives-speech.html

    So it may depend on whether this time people actually listen when they're warned about who he makes common cause with.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,534


    You see, whenever you post something like that I know you’re worried that it might be effective.

    May is doing what she should be doing: negotiating.

    We shall see where it leads.

    I agree something needs to unblock the logjam, but I'm not sure "desperate grovelling prostrate at the feet of our European masters" is quite the show of UK strength we actually need.

    I can understand that pity is pretty much the only card May has left but still... Merkel doesn't look to me like a woman who knows pity.
    How do you know she’s grovelling and not explaining to them the serious consequences to European financial stability in security in the event of “no deal”, which more likely than not would result in direct damage to them and Jeremy Corbyn decimating the UK’s security services? Yes, the EU want to politically stabilise the EU. They also want a physically secure and economically stable continent.

    Her offence to many is that she might succeed in reaching an acceptable deal.
    Jeremy Hunt was on French radio saying that we don't want any customs borders at all and we want totally free trade with Europe. It's pretty clear that they define 'success' as finding a way to stay in the single market and customs union without losing office.
    No it isn’t.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,534


    Her offence to many is that she might succeed in reaching an acceptable deal.

    If May somehow manages to bring back a deal she can sell to Parliament I will eat SeanT.
    That’s a keeper.

    I’ll let you negotiate with SeanT on that one.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792


    Her offence to many is that she might succeed in reaching an acceptable deal.

    If May somehow manages to bring back a deal she can sell to Parliament I will eat SeanT.
    Possibly one of the few things he has yet to try...
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    BannedOnTheRunBannedOnTheRun Posts: 58
    edited August 2018
    On the Tom Newton Dunn tweet, this is how the (I think same) episode was reported at the time by John Gulliver in the Camden New Journal;

    Auschwitz survivor, 86, takes on the protesters

    IT’S not often you meet a have-a-go hero, let alone three! I met spritely 86-year-old Dr Hajo Meyer, a survivor of the Nazi death-camps, at the House of Commons.
    At a Holocaust Memorial Day ceremony, Dr Meyer spoke about the Nazis and pleaded for an end to the war against Palestinians. Israel, he said, was “dehumanising the Palestinians as the Nazis tried to dehumanise me”.
    But when a dozen protesters tried breaking up the meeting, shouting pro-Israel slogans and hurling abuse at Dr Meyer, they met their match. The plucky professor – barely over 5ft – refused to back down. “I grew up under Hitler and lived through Auschwitz. I’m not scared of people like you,” he told the burly protestors.
    Islington MP Jeremy Corbyn, who helped organise the meeting, had to call the police and it took several officers to cart the men away.
    Minutes later we heard the voice of another hero. Speaking by telephone from Gaza, Dr Haider Eid reported how Israel’s blockade of the enclave has cut power and plunged its 1.3m people into darkness.
    Because of the embargo families are in tents, orphans on the streets, food and medicines have dwindled, he said. But he wanted pay tribute to the tens of thousands of Jews trapped by the Nazis in the Warsaw Ghetto.
    The meeting was chaired by Hampstead resident Selma James, 79 year-old widow of the black writer CLR James.
  • Options
    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    @MJW James Thring didn't do the "opening speech" at Corbyn's event. The main speaker was delayed and Thring just got up and spoke; he was never asked to.

    But nobody told him to sit down and STFU..... How convenient.

    And welcome.
    "Labour's Jeremy Corbyn has apologised for appearing on platforms with people whose views he "completely rejects"."
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,336
    edited August 2018

    On the Tom Newton Dunn tweet, this is how the (I think same) episode was reported at the time by John Gulliver in the Camden New Journal;

    Auschwitz survivor, 86, takes on the protesters

    IT’S not often you meet a have-a-go hero, let alone three! I met spritely 86-year-old Dr Hajo Meyer, a survivor of the Nazi death-camps, at the House of Commons.
    At a Holocaust Memorial Day ceremony, Dr Meyer spoke about the Nazis and pleaded for an end to the war against Palestinians. Israel, he said, was “dehumanising the Palestinians as the Nazis tried to dehumanise me”.
    But when a dozen protesters tried breaking up the meeting, shouting pro-Israel slogans and hurling abuse at Dr Meyer, they met their match. The plucky professor – barely over 5ft – refused to back down. “I grew up under Hitler and lived through Auschwitz. I’m not scared of people like you,” he told the burly protestors.
    Islington MP Jeremy Corbyn, who helped organise the meeting, had to call the police and it took several officers to cart the men away.
    Minutes later we heard the voice of another hero. Speaking by telephone from Gaza, Dr Haider Eid reported how Israel’s blockade of the enclave has cut power and plunged its 1.3m people into darkness.
    Because of the embargo families are in tents, orphans on the streets, food and medicines have dwindled, he said. But he wanted pay tribute to the tens of thousands of Jews trapped by the Nazis in the Warsaw Ghetto.
    The meeting was chaired by Hampstead resident Selma James, 79 year-old widow of the black writer CLR James.

    This John Gulliver?

    http://camdennewjournal.com/article/labouring-over-a-taboo-subject
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited August 2018

    On the Tom Newton Dunn tweet, this is how the (I think same) episode was reported at the time by John Gulliver in the Camden New Journal;
    Auschwitz survivor, 86, takes on the protesters

    A google of John Gulliver and Corbyn suggests they are very much fellow travellers.

    https://www.google.co.uk/search?q="john+gulliver"+corbyn&rlz=1C1GCEA_enGB800GB800&oq="john+gulliver"+corbyn&aqs=chrome..69i57.6304j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    [Heh. @ydoethur]
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited August 2018

    On the Tom Newton Dunn tweet, this is how the (I think same) episode was reported at the time by John Gulliver in the Camden New Journal;
    Auschwitz survivor, 86, takes on the protesters

    IT’S not often you meet a have-a-go hero, let alone three! I met spritely 86-year-old Dr Hajo Meyer, a survivor of the Nazi death-camps, at the House of Commons.
    At a Holocaust Memorial Day ceremony, Dr Meyer spoke about the Nazis and pleaded for an end to the war against Palestinians. Israel, he said, was “dehumanising the Palestinians as the Nazis tried to dehumanise me”.
    But when a dozen protesters tried breaking up the meeting, shouting pro-Israel slogans and hurling abuse at Dr Meyer, they met their match. The plucky professor – barely over 5ft – refused to back down. “I grew up under Hitler and lived through Auschwitz. I’m not scared of people like you,” he told the burly protestors.
    Islington MP Jeremy Corbyn, who helped organise the meeting, had to call the police and it took several officers to cart the men away.
    Minutes later we heard the voice of another hero. Speaking by telephone from Gaza, Dr Haider Eid reported how Israel’s blockade of the enclave has cut power and plunged its 1.3m people into darkness.
    Because of the embargo families are in tents, orphans on the streets, food and medicines have dwindled, he said. But he wanted pay tribute to the tens of thousands of Jews trapped by the Nazis in the Warsaw Ghetto.
    The meeting was chaired by Hampstead resident Selma James, 79 year-old widow of the black writer CLR James.

    Seems a differing perspective from the sun tweet.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,336

    @MJW James Thring didn't do the "opening speech" at Corbyn's event. The main speaker was delayed and Thring just got up and spoke; he was never asked to.

    But nobody told him to sit down and STFU..... How convenient.

    And welcome.
    "Labour's Jeremy Corbyn has apologised for appearing on platforms with people whose views he "completely rejects"."
    The Daily Mash must be fuming.
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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    The only thing he's shaking with is laughter, tbh.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited August 2018


    The only thing he's shaking with is laughter, tbh.

    There's nothing more gratifying than watching our friends squirm.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130


    You see, whenever you post something like that I know you’re worried that it might be effective.

    May is doing what she should be doing: negotiating.

    We shall see where it leads.

    I agree something needs to unblock the logjam, but I'm not sure "desperate grovelling prostrate at the feet of our European masters" is quite the show of UK strength we actually need.

    I can understand that pity is pretty much the only card May has left but still... Merkel doesn't look to me like a woman who knows pity.
    How do you know she’s grovelling and not explaining to them the serious consequences to European financial stability in security in the event of “no deal”, which more likely than not would result in direct damage to them and Jeremy Corbyn decimating the UK’s security services? Yes, the EU want to politically stabilise the EU. They also want a physically secure and economically stable continent.

    Her offence to many is that she might succeed in reaching an acceptable deal.
    Jeremy Hunt was on French radio saying that we don't want any customs borders at all and we want totally free trade with Europe. It's pretty clear that they define 'success' as finding a way to stay in the single market and customs union without losing office.
    No it isn’t.
    Since the time Hunt proposed a second referendum on 'Norway plus', do you think he's been won over by the arguments?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36647948
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    dr_spyn said:

    Re Boris.

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1024590875622625280

    The tweet made me smile, but Boris has to cement his appear across the whole electorate, not just the 100,000 or so Tory members, who tend to be more royalist than any king over the water.

    I thought the membership of the Conservative Party was now down to 70,000.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,336
    Aaaand Jennings' luck runs out.

    It is however worth mentioning at this point that after eight tests in the middle order Vaughan had a lower average than Jennings and a top score of 76.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    edited August 2018

    The only thing he's shaking with is laughter, tbh.
    The man who couldn't even get on the ballot of MPs in 2007, riding Corbyn's slipstream to the top job.....

    "On the evening of 16 May 2007, John McDonnell conceded defeat. The left-wing Labour leadership candidate had won only 29 MP nominations, 16 short of the number he needed to make the ballot. “I know how angry many of you are, but I would ask you to stay in the party and fight,” McDonnell wrote in a letter to his supporters as Gordon Brown became the new Labour leader – and thus the prime minister – unopposed. “Don’t mourn, organise,” McDonnell concluded."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/09/how-labour-left-triumphed-inside-story

    And now he's organising.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    @MJW James Thring didn't do the "opening speech" at Corbyn's event. The main speaker was delayed and Thring just got up and spoke; he was never asked to.

    But nobody told him to sit down and STFU..... How convenient.

    And welcome.
    "Labour's Jeremy Corbyn has apologised for appearing on platforms with people whose views he "completely rejects"."
    Yet he keeps doing it

    Wonder why that is

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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,700

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, yet more journalists confusing border checks of people with “Freedom of Movement”, which specifically in EU terminology means entitlement to National Insurance numbers and state benefits, nothing whatsoever to do with borders.

    Oh, and of course there’s precisely no chance of the UK doing anything about the NI goods border, that’s entirely Varakdar’s and Drunker’s problem if there’s no deal.
    The UK government will have its hands full ensuring there is adequate food to worry about things like National Insurance numbers.
    it's just any old shite isnt it ?

    Germany is facing a disatrous harvest this year as are many other EU country.

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/ernteausfall-wegen-duerre-bauernverband-will-geld-vom-staat-15715204.html
    It is worse than that: Germany is running out of beer bottles.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/23/germany-running-beer-bottles-heatwave-fuels-demand/
    They will just have to drink it more quickly and take them back for recycling.

    BV = L

    B = qty of bottles
    V = velocity of circulation
    L = total drinkage of lager


  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137


    Her offence to many is that she might succeed in reaching an acceptable deal.

    If May somehow manages to bring back a deal she can sell to Parliament I will eat SeanT.
    And if not - he gets to eat you?
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Utterly off topic, but this is apparently a real thing. Best-named medical condition ever.
    https://www.sleepassociation.org/sleep-disorders/more-sleep-disorders/exploding-head-syndrome/
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, yet more journalists confusing border checks of people with “Freedom of Movement”, which specifically in EU terminology means entitlement to National Insurance numbers and state benefits, nothing whatsoever to do with borders.

    Oh, and of course there’s precisely no chance of the UK doing anything about the NI goods border, that’s entirely Varakdar’s and Drunker’s problem if there’s no deal.
    The UK government will have its hands full ensuring there is adequate food to worry about things like National Insurance numbers.
    it's just any old shite isnt it ?

    Germany is facing a disatrous harvest this year as are many other EU country.

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/ernteausfall-wegen-duerre-bauernverband-will-geld-vom-staat-15715204.html
    It is worse than that: Germany is running out of beer bottles.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/23/germany-running-beer-bottles-heatwave-fuels-demand/
    They will just have to drink it more quickly and take them back for recycling.

    BV = L

    B = qty of bottles
    V = velocity of circulation
    L = total drinkage of lager


    We'd be happy to help OI produce more ;)
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Not sure they do. Too many factions involved; all the main contenders have good friends and bitter enemies in the party. I'd expect a Momentum [read: Lansman] endorsed candidate to have a better chance that one that came from JC/Milne.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,336

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited August 2018

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    A Corbyn annointee wouldn't win if Momentum wanted someone else. (Edit: I see @Anorak got there first).

    More generally, it has been a universal law of politics for the last century that the hard left ends up at war with itself. I don't see why it would be different this time, and once the Corbyn glue has gone the splinters will appear.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
    Yes. Betfair rules are as below and nearly all bookies will have similar.

    This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Labour Party leader after Jeremy Corbyn, as chosen by a Labour Party leadership contest.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Don't they need to get some rule changes helpful to McDonnell through first ?
    But once they are...

    He's only two and a bit years younger than Corbyn btw - looks slightly younger than his 66 years though.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited August 2018
    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
    Now that would set the the Centrist cat amongst the Marxist pigeons.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,371
    Malan just doesn't look like a test batsman to me. He always looks a little rushed.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,336
    Aaand Malan goes.

    Root must now be wondering whether he would have been better off with Moeen at 4.

    Don't really think Malan is a Test batsman TBQH. I think there's more than a touch of Middlesex bias in his selection.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,700
    edited August 2018

    IanB2 said:

    surby said:

    ISTR the heat of the campaign in Kennedy's seat during the 2015 campaign was mentioned on here at the time, and at the time of his passing.

    That piece is very powerful, all the more so for being from an ex-Labour MP.
    He is an ex-Labour MP who has always loathed the SNP, far from an unbiased source.
    Ex-SDP, you mean. Kennedy was never Labour.
    He is, however, dead, and therefore unlikely to be writing pieces for the paper.
    You can't be sure with The Times nowadays.
    Dead writers for a dead medium.

    It has a certain symmetry.
    I didn't realise that Blackford had been trying to invent an angelic reputation for himself. Interesting that there are a lot of goes at the author above, but no questioning of the content - which is about right.

    Amusingly, Ian Blackford *was* Labour for a time, and a headbanger to boot, who went to London to seek his fortune like Dick Whittington, as a banker. He got himself sacked as SNP treasurer by threatening to sue Salmond for defamation.

    Then he invaded the Lib Dem Campaign headquarters in Skye with his staff after they accurately called him a "well funded banker" in a leaflet. Lib Dem eye witness said he was abusive; Blackford says he was delivering cake with his 3-4 friends. Mail said they had to call the police.

    Blackford knew the twitter abuser, both on FB and Twitter, and praised effusively him at a Burns' Noght Supper; then threw him under the bus on the day of Kennedy's funeral.

    The Scottish National Pantomime keeps on giving...
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pulpstar said:


    Don't they need to get some rule changes helpful to McDonnell through first ?
    But once they are...

    The democracy roadshow rulebook changes are to be voted on at conference, and everyone expects them to carry.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I see the Corbyn anti-Semitism story lasted about half a day as a top story on the BBC front page.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    Peterborough might not have Mr Jackson fighting his corner very soon.

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1024650923770081281
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
    Now that would set the the Centrist cat amongst the Marxist pigeons.
    I still have some cash on Watson as next labour leader....pls make it so.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,371
    ydoethur said:

    Aaand Malan goes.

    Root must now be wondering whether he would have been better off with Moeen at 4.

    Don't really think Malan is a Test batsman TBQH. I think there's more than a touch of Middlesex bias in his selection.

    Snap.

    England marginally behind now.
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Aaand Malan goes.

    Root must now be wondering whether he would have been better off with Moeen at 4.

    Don't really think Malan is a Test batsman TBQH. I think there's more than a touch of Middlesex bias in his selection.

    Snap.

    England marginally behind now.
    If the Bairstow, Stokes and Buttler triumverate gets going we could see some real fireworks.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
    Now that would set the the Centrist cat amongst the Marxist pigeons.
    I still have some cash on Watson as next labour leader....pls make it so.
    Clearly the Labour party needs a unity candidate. The obvious choice is Ed Miliband.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I see the Corbyn anti-Semitism story lasted about half a day as a top story on the BBC front page.

    Two years, on and off though. Not going away either - the conspiracy theorists are too deeply embedded in Corbyn's Labour, have enough echo chambers within which to reinforce each others' views, and are given leash by Corbyn when he fails to criticise them or when he speaks on Palestine.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792
    ydoethur said:

    Aaand Malan goes.

    Root must now be wondering whether he would have been better off with Moeen at 4.

    Don't really think Malan is a Test batsman TBQH. I think there's more than a touch of Middlesex bias in his selection.

    Agreed.
    As for Root, I think he's maybe consulted, but in the end handed the team Mr. Ed picks and told to get on with it.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420
    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
    That doesn't automatically follow, although it's quite likely. When Blair quit in 2007, he served through as leader until confirmation of Brown's election. Likewise Kinnock in 1992.

    I can't remember the exact rule but I think it's something along the line that when a leader quits there's provision for the NEC (and cabinet when in government?) to appoint a successor until the election has taken place - which can be the outgoing leader.

    In any case, there's certainly precedent that the resigning leader doesn't always step aside with immediate effect.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
    Now that would set the the Centrist cat amongst the Marxist pigeons.
    I still have some cash on Watson as next labour leader....pls make it so.
    Clearly the Labour party needs a unity candidate. The obvious choice is Ed Miliband.
    If we get a by-election in Peterborough and David Miliband or Ed Balls stand, my book on next Lab leader will suddenly look horrible.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Still a fair way to go, but I'll be pleased if my £2 @ 890.0 comes good :)
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,846
    edited August 2018
    Re: next Labour leader and in my tradition of touting Manchester MPs.

    Does anyone rate Gwynne as value at 100/1? Decent Campaign director record, excepting Copeland, Shadow cabinet, not a total fool as far as I can tell from what little I have seen.

    Don't know if he is a front of office type, though?
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,322
    edited August 2018
    SeanT said:

    PB's armchair lawyers who assured us Tommy Robinson's strange, hasty, secret and punitive conviction was all above board are not looking so superior now. Tits.

    I thought they were actual lawyers. Although 'Tommy' is a dangerous hoodlum, I'm actually not displeased by his acquittal; it demonstrates that the British judiciary is still robust and fair, and everyone is treated equally before it. This wouldn't be the case if Britain really was the Sharia-run failing society of warped American far-Right fantasies.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420

    surby said:

    ISTR the heat of the campaign in Kennedy's seat during the 2015 campaign was mentioned on here at the time, and at the time of his passing.

    That piece is very powerful, all the more so for being from an ex-Labour MP.
    He is an ex-Labour MP who has always loathed the SNP, far from an unbiased source.
    Ex-SDP, you mean. Kennedy was never Labour.
    He's referring to Brian Wilson.
    Although for the sake of completeness, Kennedy was Labour pre-1981.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Poor Little Owen sounds so desperate to move on.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Pro_Rata said:

    Re: next Labour leader and in my tradition of touting Manchester MPs.

    Does anyone rate Gwynne as value at 100/1? Decent Campaign director record, excepting Copeland, Shadow cabinet, not a total fool as far as I can tell from what little I have seen.

    Don't know if he is a front of office type, though?

    I don't know much about her but my instinct says 100-1 isn't long enough here.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Meeks, I agree. Ed Miliband would be a fine choice.

    I may have just checked my betting records (backed Miliband, not McDonnell).
  • Options
    A few thoughts...

    1. The tide has turned on Corbyn/Anti-semitism. The attempt to defend Willsman feels like a step too far, we now have stalwarts of the pro-Corbyn left demanding he goes including senior Momentum people. Suddenly the "#jc9" tag which was a brilliant bit of spin is now the albatross around Jezbollah's neck - they HAVE to defend Willsman because ONLY the #jc9 are for Corbyn. So if he goes, enemies get in.
    2. Kali Ma members on Facebook / a few members local to me still insist Willsman did nothing wrong but their protests are being swept away by events
    3. The timely revelations about the 2010 / 2014 events hosted by JC in parliament demonstrate that he more than happy to share platform with screaming antisemites - hence him being non-plussed by Willsman. That the party will give Willsman a free pass yet suspends the people complaining about the situation is plainly absurd.
    4. Ordinarily you'd think we can't go on like this much longer. But siege warfare against the enemy is the very definition of Corbynism. It will take a much bigger name than Tom Watson to overturn the applecart
    5. McDonnell or Abbott have always been the only people who could say to Jeremy "for the good of all we have achieved you need to step away". I feel like JMcD is on the cusp of being there. A new revelation or two and he genuinely may hand Jezbollah the pearl-handled trowel.

    Most likely remains that Jeremy ignores the whole thing in the expectation that the Kali Ma just denounce everyone who keeps pointing to how outrageous this all is. But is McDonnell concludes enough is enough, he will blow away this whole nightmare. I expect that the Labour Party would lose a few thousand members and tens of thousands of clicktivist wankers, but would regain self-respect and leader that non-political punters can vote for.

    Come on John. He has to go.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,222

    SeanT said:

    PB's armchair lawyers who assured us Tommy Robinson's strange, hasty, secret and punitive conviction was all above board are not looking so superior now. Tits.

    I thought they were actual lawyers. Although 'Tommy' is a dangerous hoodlum, I'm actually not displeased by his acquittal; it demonstrates that the British judiciary is still robust and fair, and everyone is treated equally before it. This wouldn't be the case if Britain really was the Sharia-run failing society of warped American far-Right fantasies.
    Actually, we do look superior because Robinson was convicted by the judge; he appealed - as he had a right to do - and a superior court decided that the judge got it wrong. He will therefore be tried again. That is exactly how the system is meant to work. It would have been better if the judge at first instance got it right but that is why we have an appeals system. And that appeal would have gone ahead regardless of how many people tweeted or demonstrated about it.

    Those who thought that it was all a terrible conspiracy and that he should have been freed just because a lot of people were shouting about it in the street are the tits. That's not the rule of law. That's mob rule. Those who prefer mob rule by racists can piss off and join the Labour Party.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
    Now that would set the the Centrist cat amongst the Marxist pigeons.
    I still have some cash on Watson as next labour leader....pls make it so.
    Clearly the Labour party needs a unity candidate. The obvious choice is Ed Miliband.
    Rule No 1. Never go back, ever.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,846
    Pro_Rata said:

    Re: next Labour leader and in my tradition of touting Manchester MPs.

    Does anyone rate Gwynne as value at 100/1? Decent Campaign director record, excepting Copeland, Shadow cabinet, not a total fool as far as I can tell from what little I have seen.

    Don't know if he is a front of office type, though?

    I think more likely he will be campaign manager for another candidate and whoever he chooses will represent good value.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,222

    A few thoughts...

    1. The tide has turned on Corbyn/Anti-semitism. The attempt to defend Willsman feels like a step too far, we now have stalwarts of the pro-Corbyn left demanding he goes including senior Momentum people. Suddenly the "#jc9" tag which was a brilliant bit of spin is now the albatross around Jezbollah's neck - they HAVE to defend Willsman because ONLY the #jc9 are for Corbyn. So if he goes, enemies get in.
    2. Kali Ma members on Facebook / a few members local to me still insist Willsman did nothing wrong but their protests are being swept away by events
    3. The timely revelations about the 2010 / 2014 events hosted by JC in parliament demonstrate that he more than happy to share platform with screaming antisemites - hence him being non-plussed by Willsman. That the party will give Willsman a free pass yet suspends the people complaining about the situation is plainly absurd.
    4. Ordinarily you'd think we can't go on like this much longer. But siege warfare against the enemy is the very definition of Corbynism. It will take a much bigger name than Tom Watson to overturn the applecart
    5. McDonnell or Abbott have always been the only people who could say to Jeremy "for the good of all we have achieved you need to step away". I feel like JMcD is on the cusp of being there. A new revelation or two and he genuinely may hand Jezbollah the pearl-handled trowel.

    Most likely remains that Jeremy ignores the whole thing in the expectation that the Kali Ma just denounce everyone who keeps pointing to how outrageous this all is. But is McDonnell concludes enough is enough, he will blow away this whole nightmare. I expect that the Labour Party would lose a few thousand members and tens of thousands of clicktivist wankers, but would regain self-respect and leader that non-political punters can vote for.

    Come on John. He has to go.


    It's not just screaming anti-semites he's happy to share a platform with but white supremacists and actual neo-Nazis. Surely that's a step too far even for some of his fans?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
    Now that would set the the Centrist cat amongst the Marxist pigeons.
    I still have some cash on Watson as next labour leader....pls make it so.
    Clearly the Labour party needs a unity candidate. The obvious choice is Ed Miliband.
    Rule No 1. Never go back, ever.
    Cable? :p
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited August 2018

    Most likely remains that Jeremy ignores the whole thing in the expectation that the Kali Ma just denounce everyone who keeps pointing to how outrageous this all is. But is McDonnell concludes enough is enough, he will blow away this whole nightmare. I expect that the Labour Party would lose a few thousand members and tens of thousands of clicktivist wankers, but would regain self-respect and leader that non-political punters can vote for.

    Come on John. He has to go.

    Nice post (shortened to avoid thread cloggage).

    Why do you think JMcD has the weight to force JC out? It appears to me that he's been increasingly marginalised by Momentum and that his authority - though still a force to be reckoned with - is nowhere near what it once was.
  • Options
    Anorak said:

    Most likely remains that Jeremy ignores the whole thing in the expectation that the Kali Ma just denounce everyone who keeps pointing to how outrageous this all is. But is McDonnell concludes enough is enough, he will blow away this whole nightmare. I expect that the Labour Party would lose a few thousand members and tens of thousands of clicktivist wankers, but would regain self-respect and leader that non-political punters can vote for.

    Come on John. He has to go.

    Nice post (shortened to avoid thread cloggage).

    Why do you think JMcD has the weight to force JC out? It appears to me that he's been increasingly marginalised by Momentum and that his authority - though still a force to be reckoned with - is no where near what it once was.
    There is a significant difference between what the Momentum/Kali Ma hate mob think that Jeremy says/thinks/does/listens to, and who he actually listens to. I am not talking about McDonnell going on the World at One calling for Jeremy to go, just one of the angry private conversations whose existence has already been leaked where he tells Jeremy "this will kill us and everything we believe in"
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420
    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
    Now that would set the the Centrist cat amongst the Marxist pigeons.
    I still have some cash on Watson as next labour leader....pls make it so.
    Clearly the Labour party needs a unity candidate. The obvious choice is Ed Miliband.
    If we get a by-election in Peterborough and David Miliband or Ed Balls stand, my book on next Lab leader will suddenly look horrible.
    There will undoubtedly be a by-election in a winnable Labour seat at some point this parliament. The chances of Miliband or Balls standing are minimal. Both have interests outside parliament that are more attractive and I doubt that either see a road back for their kind of Labour at the moment. If they want to be the King over the Water, they need to stay over the water until they can return and win i.e. after a general election defeat.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    Most likely remains that Jeremy ignores the whole thing in the expectation that the Kali Ma just denounce everyone who keeps pointing to how outrageous this all is. But is McDonnell concludes enough is enough, he will blow away this whole nightmare. I expect that the Labour Party would lose a few thousand members and tens of thousands of clicktivist wankers, but would regain self-respect and leader that non-political punters can vote for.

    Come on John. He has to go.

    Nice post (shortened to avoid thread cloggage).

    Why do you think JMcD has the weight to force JC out? It appears to me that he's been increasingly marginalised by Momentum and that his authority - though still a force to be reckoned with - is no where near what it once was.
    There is a significant difference between what the Momentum/Kali Ma hate mob think that Jeremy says/thinks/does/listens to, and who he actually listens to. I am not talking about McDonnell going on the World at One calling for Jeremy to go, just one of the angry private conversations whose existence has already been leaked where he tells Jeremy "this will kill us and everything we believe in"
    I hope you're right, and that action is taken. [and love the Temple of Doom reference]
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420

    A few thoughts...

    1. The tide has turned on Corbyn/Anti-semitism. The attempt to defend Willsman feels like a step too far, we now have stalwarts of the pro-Corbyn left demanding he goes including senior Momentum people. Suddenly the "#jc9" tag which was a brilliant bit of spin is now the albatross around Jezbollah's neck - they HAVE to defend Willsman because ONLY the #jc9 are for Corbyn. So if he goes, enemies get in.
    2. Kali Ma members on Facebook / a few members local to me still insist Willsman did nothing wrong but their protests are being swept away by events
    3. The timely revelations about the 2010 / 2014 events hosted by JC in parliament demonstrate that he more than happy to share platform with screaming antisemites - hence him being non-plussed by Willsman. That the party will give Willsman a free pass yet suspends the people complaining about the situation is plainly absurd.
    4. Ordinarily you'd think we can't go on like this much longer. But siege warfare against the enemy is the very definition of Corbynism. It will take a much bigger name than Tom Watson to overturn the applecart
    5. McDonnell or Abbott have always been the only people who could say to Jeremy "for the good of all we have achieved you need to step away". I feel like JMcD is on the cusp of being there. A new revelation or two and he genuinely may hand Jezbollah the pearl-handled trowel.

    Most likely remains that Jeremy ignores the whole thing in the expectation that the Kali Ma just denounce everyone who keeps pointing to how outrageous this all is. But is McDonnell concludes enough is enough, he will blow away this whole nightmare. I expect that the Labour Party would lose a few thousand members and tens of thousands of clicktivist wankers, but would regain self-respect and leader that non-political punters can vote for.

    Come on John. He has to go.

    What is the jc9 thing? I'm missing something there.
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    A few thoughts...

    1. The tide has turned on Corbyn/Anti-semitism. The attempt to defend Willsman feels like a step too far, we now have stalwarts of the pro-Corbyn left demanding he goes including senior Momentum people. Suddenly the "#jc9" tag which was a brilliant bit of spin is now the albatross around Jezbollah's neck - they HAVE to defend Willsman because ONLY the #jc9 are for Corbyn. So if he goes, enemies get in.
    2. Kali Ma members on Facebook / a few members local to me still insist Willsman did nothing wrong but their protests are being swept away by events
    3. The timely revelations about the 2010 / 2014 events hosted by JC in parliament demonstrate that he more than happy to share platform with screaming antisemites - hence him being non-plussed by Willsman. That the party will give Willsman a free pass yet suspends the people complaining about the situation is plainly absurd.
    4. Ordinarily you'd think we can't go on like this much longer. But siege warfare against the enemy is the very definition of Corbynism. It will take a much bigger name than Tom Watson to overturn the applecart
    5. McDonnell or Abbott have always been the only people who could say to Jeremy "for the good of all we have achieved you need to step away". I feel like JMcD is on the cusp of being there. A new revelation or two and he genuinely may hand Jezbollah the pearl-handled trowel.

    Most likely remains that Jeremy ignores the whole thing in the expectation that the Kali Ma just denounce everyone who keeps pointing to how outrageous this all is. But is McDonnell concludes enough is enough, he will blow away this whole nightmare. I expect that the Labour Party would lose a few thousand members and tens of thousands of clicktivist wankers, but would regain self-respect and leader that non-political punters can vote for.

    Come on John. He has to go.

    What is the jc9 thing? I'm missing something there.
    A quick google suggests it's a slate of nine Corbynite candidates for Labour's upcoming NEC election.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    What is the jc9 thing? I'm missing something there.

    #JC9 hashtag for the "Momentum Approved" NEC slate. Includes Willsman.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
    Now that would set the the Centrist cat amongst the Marxist pigeons.
    I still have some cash on Watson as next labour leader....pls make it so.
    Clearly the Labour party needs a unity candidate. The obvious choice is Ed Miliband.
    If we get a by-election in Peterborough and David Miliband or Ed Balls stand, my book on next Lab leader will suddenly look horrible.
    There will undoubtedly be a by-election in a winnable Labour seat at some point this parliament. The chances of Miliband or Balls standing are minimal. Both have interests outside parliament that are more attractive and I doubt that either see a road back for their kind of Labour at the moment. If they want to be the King over the Water, they need to stay over the water until they can return and win i.e. after a general election defeat.
    Balls comes across very well in the Trump documentary. He'd have much more potential as a leader than Miliband.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited August 2018

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
    Now that would set the the Centrist cat amongst the Marxist pigeons.
    I still have some cash on Watson as next labour leader....pls make it so.
    Clearly the Labour party needs a unity candidate. The obvious choice is Ed Miliband.
    If we get a by-election in Peterborough and David Miliband or Ed Balls stand, my book on next Lab leader will suddenly look horrible.
    There will undoubtedly be a by-election in a winnable Labour seat at some point this parliament. The chances of Miliband or Balls standing are minimal. Both have interests outside parliament that are more attractive and I doubt that either see a road back for their kind of Labour at the moment. If they want to be the King over the Water, they need to stay over the water until they can return and win i.e. after a general election defeat.
    Balls comes across very well in the Trump documentary. He'd have much more potential as a leader than Miliband.
    It will only be a face not associated with Blair or, to a lesser degree, Brown.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420
    rpjs said:

    A few thoughts...

    1. The tide has turned on Corbyn/Anti-semitism. The attempt to defend Willsman feels like a step too far, we now have stalwarts of the pro-Corbyn left demanding he goes including senior Momentum people. Suddenly the "#jc9" tag which was a brilliant bit of spin is now the albatross around Jezbollah's neck - they HAVE to defend Willsman because ONLY the #jc9 are for Corbyn. So if he goes, enemies get in.
    2. Kali Ma members on Facebook / a few members local to me still insist Willsman did nothing wrong but their protests are being swept away by events
    3. The timely revelations about the 2010 / 2014 events hosted by JC in parliament demonstrate that he more than happy to share platform with screaming antisemites - hence him being non-plussed by Willsman. That the party will give Willsman a free pass yet suspends the people complaining about the situation is plainly absurd.
    4. Ordinarily you'd think we can't go on like this much longer. But siege warfare against the enemy is the very definition of Corbynism. It will take a much bigger name than Tom Watson to overturn the applecart
    5. McDonnell or Abbott have always been the only people who could say to Jeremy "for the good of all we have achieved you need to step away". I feel like JMcD is on the cusp of being there. A new revelation or two and he genuinely may hand Jezbollah the pearl-handled trowel.

    Most likely remains that Jeremy ignores the whole thing in the expectation that the Kali Ma just denounce everyone who keeps pointing to how outrageous this all is. But is McDonnell concludes enough is enough, he will blow away this whole nightmare. I expect that the Labour Party would lose a few thousand members and tens of thousands of clicktivist wankers, but would regain self-respect and leader that non-political punters can vote for.

    Come on John. He has to go.

    What is the jc9 thing? I'm missing something there.
    A quick google suggests it's a slate of nine Corbynite candidates for Labour's upcoming NEC election.
    Cheers.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
    Now that would set the the Centrist cat amongst the Marxist pigeons.
    I still have some cash on Watson as next labour leader....pls make it so.
    Clearly the Labour party needs a unity candidate. The obvious choice is Ed Miliband.
    Rule No 1. Never go back, ever.
    Unless I have money on it.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
    Now that would set the the Centrist cat amongst the Marxist pigeons.
    I still have some cash on Watson as next labour leader....pls make it so.
    Clearly the Labour party needs a unity candidate. The obvious choice is Ed Miliband.
    If we get a by-election in Peterborough and David Miliband or Ed Balls stand, my book on next Lab leader will suddenly look horrible.
    There will undoubtedly be a by-election in a winnable Labour seat at some point this parliament. The chances of Miliband or Balls standing are minimal. Both have interests outside parliament that are more attractive and I doubt that either see a road back for their kind of Labour at the moment. If they want to be the King over the Water, they need to stay over the water until they can return and win i.e. after a general election defeat.
    Balls comes across very well in the Trump documentary. He'd have much more potential as a leader than Miliband.
    Yes. But I think that like Portillo, he's realised that there's an interesting world outside Westminster and Whitehall and I don't know whether he'd have the fire to return to full-time politics, even if there was an invitation.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anorak said:

    Andrew said:

    Is MaccyD on manoeuvres? Fair few comments lately that seem deliberately unhelpful.

    I get the sense he's just got very, very frustrated with the needless prolonging of the issue due to the incompetence of JC's inner circle. He has much, much less popular appeal than JC amongst da youth so I can't really see him as the successor.
    If Corbyn anoints a successor, do they automatically win?

    Genuine question for discussion - let's hypothetically say Corbyn steps down "voluntarily" within the next 6 months.
    Significant point for betting - I take it bets are paid out on the next permanent leader elected by Conference? As otherwise if Corbyn resigns Watson is the next leader.
    Now that would set the the Centrist cat amongst the Marxist pigeons.
    I still have some cash on Watson as next labour leader....pls make it so.
    Clearly the Labour party needs a unity candidate. The obvious choice is Ed Miliband.
    If we get a by-election in Peterborough and David Miliband or Ed Balls stand, my book on next Lab leader will suddenly look horrible.
    There will undoubtedly be a by-election in a winnable Labour seat at some point this parliament. The chances of Miliband or Balls standing are minimal. Both have interests outside parliament that are more attractive and I doubt that either see a road back for their kind of Labour at the moment. If they want to be the King over the Water, they need to stay over the water until they can return and win i.e. after a general election defeat.
    Balls comes across very well in the Trump documentary. He'd have much more potential as a leader than Miliband.
    Yes. But I think that like Portillo, he's realised that there's an interesting world outside Westminster and Whitehall and I don't know whether he'd have the fire to return to full-time politics, even if there was an invitation.
    I suspect matrimonial discord would also ensue.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    When it comes to Corbyn, the track record is such that he will continue. He's faced these sort of accusations before, and the faithful have excused, ignored or applauded his position, and the rest of Labour have remained largely supine.

    Whilst the latest stories are hideous and show what an appalling mindset he and his supporters have, I fail to see why this time it will be different.

    Sadly.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792
    Fifty partnership up before tea.
    England aren't on top yet, but if the Yorkshire pair do their usual thing, they will be before you know it. The first few overs after tea are likely to be crucial for India's chances.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,371
    Anorak said:

    What is the jc9 thing? I'm missing something there.

    #JC9 hashtag for the "Momentum Approved" NEC slate. Includes Willsman.
    Does anyone know when the NEC elections are? If the #JC9 walk it, as I would expect them to, then Corbyn will feel pretty secure.
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,378
    Cyclefree said:

    A few thoughts...


    Most likely remains that Jeremy ignores the whole thing in the expectation that the Kali Ma just denounce everyone who keeps pointing to how outrageous this all is. But is McDonnell concludes enough is enough, he will blow away this whole nightmare. I expect that the Labour Party would lose a few thousand members and tens of thousands of clicktivist wankers, but would regain self-respect and leader that non-political punters can vote for.

    Come on John. He has to go.


    It's not just screaming anti-semites he's happy to share a platform with but white supremacists and actual neo-Nazis. Surely that's a step too far even for some of his fans?
    Sadly we're not there. There's still more than enough Corbynistas who having been provided with documentary evidence will still insist it's a smear - aided and abetted of course by the likes of Owen Jones, who will condemn anti-Semitism in one tweet and then follow it with a "but our opponents are smearing Jeremy with this" and try to claim this has nothing to do with the racist old Trot leading Labour who just happened to be at all these events with people he disagreed vehemently with but nodded along with. They've invested too much personal and professional credibility in him to worry about morality. It's a political death cult led by those who've gone too deep in selling the fraud to get out.

    The problem then is that it puts the likes of McDonnell off a move as it will split their base. He knows what Corbyn's like and how bad it is - which is why, despite their ostensibly similar politics, there's not an endless trail of McDonnell meetings with Holocaust deniers, talks with neo-Nazi conspiracists and friendships with anti-Semitic loons. However, there's still a section of the hard left that's even prepared to defend Willsman, let alone Corbyn - whose personality cult and its success has united the hard left in a way that has stopped them fracturing as they have in the past. Knife Corbyn and the obvious risk for a McDonnell is that a lot of the Branch Jeremians view him as a traitor, and others decide they represent the one true faith.

    Labour's fucked. Time for MPs to begin planning to resign the whip en masse and burn the village to save it.
This discussion has been closed.