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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    edited July 2018
    Mr. NorthWales, vielleicht. What's her room to manoeuvre?

    It seems she's painted herself into a corner. Only instead of using paint, she's being using landmines.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. HYUFD, some reckon that's why the Government wants an early recess.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    He's not in yellow, is currently 2nd in the team and didn't win the stage, but today was a good day for Froome in the Tour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    2 down maybe more to come it is could become an Agatha Christie novel
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    Mr. NorthWales, vielleicht. What's her room to manoeuvre?

    It seems she's painted herself into a corner. Only instead of using paint, she's being using landmines.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. HYUFD, some reckon that's why the Government wants an early recess.

    Maybe more decisions on planning for a no deal, even an agreement for her to walk away, though I hope not
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,003
    Another Chequers...Another referendum...We’ll keep going until we get the right answer.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    edited July 2018

    Meanwhile, in the other main party of the UK:
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1019245338480308224

    Damn them for thinking that you should be able to say that ethnic cleansing is racist, even if you're doing it to muslims
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    My recollection with IDS is that the polls were within an inch of the Tories slipping behind the Lib Dems into third place, so the runes were easier to read and the Quiet Man had to go. It's not completely obvious that Theresa will poll worse than any replacement.

    Sone polls actually had the Tories under IDS ahead of Blair's Labour, there was no poll I recall with Kennedy's LDs ahead of IDS' Tories
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    HYUFD said:

    2 down maybe more to come it is could become an Agatha Christie novel
    Looks as if Boris has blown his chances with his newspaper column and involvement with vote leave
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    William_H said:

    Meanwhile, in the other main party of the UK:
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1019245338480308224

    Damn them for thinking that you should be able to say that ethnic cleansing is racist, even if you're doing it to muslims
    I hope they approve the use of Hitler comparisons for Israel. That'll be jokes.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    So who replaces her
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394

    William_H said:

    Meanwhile, in the other main party of the UK:
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1019245338480308224

    Damn them for thinking that you should be able to say that ethnic cleansing is racist, even if you're doing it to muslims
    I hope they approve the use of Hitler comparisons for Israel. That'll be jokes.
    Saying that Jews owe more loyalty to Israel than this country is a standard anti-Semitic trope. So is comparing Israel to Nazi Germany.

    Holding Israel to a higher standard than other nations is not anti-Semitic IMHO. I think it's a mark of respect for Israel to hold that country to a higher standard than the average middle Eastern dictatorship.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    HYUFD said:

    My recollection with IDS is that the polls were within an inch of the Tories slipping behind the Lib Dems into third place, so the runes were easier to read and the Quiet Man had to go. It's not completely obvious that Theresa will poll worse than any replacement.

    Sone polls actually had the Tories under IDS ahead of Blair's Labour, there was no poll I recall with Kennedy's LDs ahead of IDS' Tories
    Yep you are correct

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    HYUFD said:

    2 down maybe more to come it is could become an Agatha Christie novel
    Looks as if Boris has blown his chances with his newspaper column and involvement with vote leave
    Nope, nobody cares about the intricacies of his newspaper column beyond Westminster and the Delta poll at the weekend had Boris on more than double the total of second placed candidates Mogg and Davidson as the public and Toryies preferred choice to succeed May post Chequers.

    Nobody cares about the intricacies off the Vote Leave campaign either beyond diehard Remainers who want yet another excuse to try and reverse the result
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Well duh... ERG have a referendum win behind them...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    Mr. NorthWales, vielleicht. What's her room to manoeuvre?

    It seems she's painted herself into a corner. Only instead of using paint, she's being using landmines.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. HYUFD, some reckon that's why the Government wants an early recess.

    May certainly
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    HYUFD said:

    Nope, nobody cares about the intricacies of his newspaper column beyond Westminster and the Delta poll at the weekend had Boris on more than double the total of second placed candidates Mogg and Davidson as the public and Toryies preferred choice to succeed May post Chequers.

    That poll was from the beginning of June, before the Chequers implosion.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Sean_F said:

    William_H said:

    Meanwhile, in the other main party of the UK:
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1019245338480308224

    Damn them for thinking that you should be able to say that ethnic cleansing is racist, even if you're doing it to muslims
    I hope they approve the use of Hitler comparisons for Israel. That'll be jokes.
    Saying that Jews owe more loyalty to Israel than this country is a standard anti-Semitic trope. So is comparing Israel to Nazi Germany.

    Holding Israel to a higher standard than other nations is not anti-Semitic IMHO. I think it's a mark of respect for Israel to hold that country to a higher standard than the average middle Eastern dictatorship.
    Oh, I agree. Just seems some on the far left love to use a bit of Hitler/Nazi comparison with Israel, as if it makes their point more powerful. I wouldn't be altogether surprised if some such numbskulls had made it on to the NEC.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    edited July 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    My recollection with IDS is that the polls were within an inch of the Tories slipping behind the Lib Dems into third place, so the runes were easier to read and the Quiet Man had to go. It's not completely obvious that Theresa will poll worse than any replacement.

    Sone polls actually had the Tories under IDS ahead of Blair's Labour, there was no poll I recall with Kennedy's LDs ahead of IDS' Tories
    Yep you are correct

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    IDS would likely have done as well as Howard in 2005 maybe even slightly better
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    edited July 2018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    2 down maybe more to come it is could become an Agatha Christie novel
    Looks as if Boris has blown his chances with his newspaper column and involvement with vote leave
    Nope, nobody cares about the intricacies of his newspaper column beyond Westminster and the Delta poll at the weekend had Boris on more than double the total of second placed candidates Mogg and Davidson as the public and Toryies preferred choice to succeed May post Chequers.

    Nobody cares about the intricacies off the Vote Leave campaign either beyond diehard Remainers who want yet another excuse to try and reverse the result
    His column is a breach of the ministerial code and he is going to be caught up in the vote leave controversy, but then you are loyal and very set in your ways and views
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Nope, nobody cares about the intricacies of his newspaper column beyond Westminster and the Delta poll at the weekend had Boris on more than double the total of second placed candidates Mogg and Davidson as the public and Toryies preferred choice to succeed May post Chequers.

    That poll was from the beginning of June, before the Chequers implosion.
    Nope was updated over the weekend post Chequers and his resignation and Boris jumped from 16% to 21% with the public post Chequers with Davidson second on 8%, Hunt third on 6% and Javid 4th on 5%. Boris is also up to 24% with Tories well ahead of second placed Davidson on 11% with Hunt on 7% and Javid on 4%

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/polls/brext-chequers-may-conservatives
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Sean_F said:

    William_H said:

    Meanwhile, in the other main party of the UK:
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1019245338480308224

    Damn them for thinking that you should be able to say that ethnic cleansing is racist, even if you're doing it to muslims
    I hope they approve the use of Hitler comparisons for Israel. That'll be jokes.
    Saying that Jews owe more loyalty to Israel than this country is a standard anti-Semitic trope. So is comparing Israel to Nazi Germany.

    Holding Israel to a higher standard than other nations is not anti-Semitic IMHO. I think it's a mark of respect for Israel to hold that country to a higher standard than the average middle Eastern dictatorship.
    Holding a democracy to a higher standard than a dictatorship is fair enough, but holding one democracy to a higher standard than other democracies is a sign of bias.

    I don't know of any democracies in a comparable situation to Israel, though, so it's hard to find comparators. Maybe India in respect to Kashmir?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Comrade H, your loyalty to the Supreme Leader does you credit!

    https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1019254187920711680
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nope, nobody cares about the intricacies of his newspaper column beyond Westminster and the Delta poll at the weekend had Boris on more than double the total of second placed candidates Mogg and Davidson as the public and Toryies preferred choice to succeed May post Chequers.

    That poll was from the beginning of June, before the Chequers implosion.
    Nope was updated over the weekend post Chequers, Boris jumped from 16% to 21% with the public post Chequers and up to 24% with Tories well ahead of second placed Davidson
    Yes it seems you're right... Boris is still less than half the don't knows, so hardly a ringing endorsement.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/SunSunday_Brexit_Deltapoll180714.pdf
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,635
    That's really not good at all. Hope this decision gets the headlines it deserves tomorrow.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Is Parliament going into recess on Thursday or next week?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394

    Sean_F said:

    William_H said:

    Meanwhile, in the other main party of the UK:
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1019245338480308224

    Damn them for thinking that you should be able to say that ethnic cleansing is racist, even if you're doing it to muslims
    I hope they approve the use of Hitler comparisons for Israel. That'll be jokes.
    Saying that Jews owe more loyalty to Israel than this country is a standard anti-Semitic trope. So is comparing Israel to Nazi Germany.

    Holding Israel to a higher standard than other nations is not anti-Semitic IMHO. I think it's a mark of respect for Israel to hold that country to a higher standard than the average middle Eastern dictatorship.
    Holding a democracy to a higher standard than a dictatorship is fair enough, but holding one democracy to a higher standard than other democracies is a sign of bias.

    I don't know of any democracies in a comparable situation to Israel, though, so it's hard to find comparators. Maybe India in respect to Kashmir?

    That point is well made.



  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Mr. Sandpit, Lib Dems are lagging miles behind in the civil war stakes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    Comrade H, your loyalty to the Supreme Leader does you credit!

    https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1019254187920711680

    The new independent HOC complaints process should be able to overcome that surely
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    2 down maybe more to come it is could become an Agatha Christie novel
    Looks as if Boris has blown his chances with his newspaper column and involvement with vote leave
    Nope, nobody cares about the intricacies of his newspaper column beyond Westminster and the Delta poll at the weekend had Boris on more than double the total of second placed candidates Mogg and Davidson as the public and Toryies preferred choice to succeed May post Chequers.

    Nobody cares about the intricacies off the Vote Leave campaign either beyond diehard Remainers who want yet another excuse to try and reverse the result
    His column is a breach of the ministerial code and he is going to be caught up in the vote leave controversy, but then you are loyal and very set in your ways and views
    Boris is not a minister and again nobody cares about a non story by a few Mail hacks jealous at the Telegraph scoop.

    Nobody cares either about the Vote Leave story either other than diehard Remainers who want to use it to undermine Brexit, in any case it is a backroom story and Boris was a frontman
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
    I think it has to be in person
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nope, nobody cares about the intricacies of his newspaper column beyond Westminster and the Delta poll at the weekend had Boris on more than double the total of second placed candidates Mogg and Davidson as the public and Toryies preferred choice to succeed May post Chequers.

    That poll was from the beginning of June, before the Chequers implosion.
    Nope was updated over the weekend post Chequers, Boris jumped from 16% to 21% with the public post Chequers and up to 24% with Tories well ahead of second placed Davidson
    Yes it seems you're right... Boris is still less than half the don't knows, so hardly a ringing endorsement.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/SunSunday_Brexit_Deltapoll180714.pdf
    To be fair he is usually right on polls but they are the basis of every argument he makes
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    William_H said:

    Meanwhile, in the other main party of the UK:
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1019245338480308224

    Damn them for thinking that you should be able to say that ethnic cleansing is racist, even if you're doing it to muslims
    I hope they approve the use of Hitler comparisons for Israel. That'll be jokes.
    Saying that Jews owe more loyalty to Israel than this country is a standard anti-Semitic trope. So is comparing Israel to Nazi Germany.

    Holding Israel to a higher standard than other nations is not anti-Semitic IMHO. I think it's a mark of respect for Israel to hold that country to a higher standard than the average middle Eastern dictatorship.
    Holding a democracy to a higher standard than a dictatorship is fair enough, but holding one democracy to a higher standard than other democracies is a sign of bias.

    I don't know of any democracies in a comparable situation to Israel, though, so it's hard to find comparators. Maybe India in respect to Kashmir?

    That point is well made.



    Historically, Britain in Northern Ireland?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,635

    Mr. Sandpit, Lib Dems are lagging miles behind in the civil war stakes.

    Their whip did a pretty good job of having two senior MPs miss a key vote last night - and he only has a dozen of them to organise!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nope, nobody cares about the intricacies of his newspaper column beyond Westminster and the Delta poll at the weekend had Boris on more than double the total of second placed candidates Mogg and Davidson as the public and Toryies preferred choice to succeed May post Chequers.

    That poll was from the beginning of June, before the Chequers implosion.
    Nope was updated over the weekend post Chequers, Boris jumped from 16% to 21% with the public post Chequers and up to 24% with Tories well ahead of second placed Davidson
    Yes it seems you're right... Boris is still less than half the don't knows, so hardly a ringing endorsement.

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/SunSunday_Brexit_Deltapoll180714.pdf
    Almost no leadership candidate gets anywhere near 50% before the final stages of a leadership vote, Corbyn certainly did not, so Boris is well placed for now even if still undecideds
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    2 down maybe more to come it is could become an Agatha Christie novel
    Looks as if Boris has blown his chances with his newspaper column and involvement with vote leave
    Nope, nobody cares about the intricacies of his newspaper column beyond Westminster and the Delta poll at the weekend had Boris on more than double the total of second placed candidates Mogg and Davidson as the public and Toryies preferred choice to succeed May post Chequers.

    Nobody cares about the intricacies off the Vote Leave campaign either beyond diehard Remainers who want yet another excuse to try and reverse the result
    His column is a breach of the ministerial code and he is going to be caught up in the vote leave controversy, but then you are loyal and very set in your ways and views
    Boris is not a minister and again nobody cares about a non story by a few Mail hacks jealous at the Telegraph scoop.

    Nobody cares either about the Vote Leave story either other than diehard Remainers who want to use it to undermine Brexit, in any case it is a backroom story and Boris was a frontman
    I think that is called blind loyalty
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    William_H said:

    Meanwhile, in the other main party of the UK:
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1019245338480308224

    Damn them for thinking that you should be able to say that ethnic cleansing is racist, even if you're doing it to muslims
    I hope they approve the use of Hitler comparisons for Israel. That'll be jokes.
    Saying that Jews owe more loyalty to Israel than this country is a standard anti-Semitic trope. So is comparing Israel to Nazi Germany.

    Holding Israel to a higher standard than other nations is not anti-Semitic IMHO. I think it's a mark of respect for Israel to hold that country to a higher standard than the average middle Eastern dictatorship.
    Holding a democracy to a higher standard than a dictatorship is fair enough, but holding one democracy to a higher standard than other democracies is a sign of bias.

    I don't know of any democracies in a comparable situation to Israel, though, so it's hard to find comparators. Maybe India in respect to Kashmir?

    That point is well made.



    Not sure if you are saying that India is Israel in this comparator, or Kashmir. The latter, maybe, the former, no way.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited July 2018
    OT: It’s now been about six weeks since any rain fell in south London. Some public parks look like 1930s dustbowls without a green blade of grass in sight. I’ve never seen a summer like this in the UK (note, born after 1976!)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Mr. NorthWales, we'll see.

    Mr. Sandpit, well, we all make mistakes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Mr. Fire, we had a little rain overnight. First beyond a few spots for about six or seven weeks. Next forecast rain is in eight days. Grass more brown than green, soil's pretty dusty too.

    At least calls for restricting water usage are fair enough, unlike some in the past that seemed to be almost a first response to a week without rain.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    OT: It’s now been about six weeks since any rain fell in south London. Some public parks look like 1930s dustbowls without a green blade of grass in sight. I’ve never seen a summer like this in the UK (note, born after 1976!)

    It was 31.5 in the Artic circle yesterday
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Sandpit, Lib Dems are lagging miles behind in the civil war stakes.

    Their whip did a pretty good job of having two senior MPs miss a key vote last night - and he only has a dozen of them to organise!
    To be fair, we’ve all been the person who booked a minicab for a night out only to see a slightly smaller vehicle than we ordered turn up - you can see how easily it could go wrong when trying to organise the parliamentary Lib Dem party.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346

    Comrade H, your loyalty to the Supreme Leader does you credit!

    https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1019254187920711680

    Its got nothing to do with Corbyn, its about opposing racism. People should be allowed to say that the denial of their right to self determination and the ethnic cleansing of their parents was racist, no matter what skin colour they are or what religion they possess.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222

    OT: It’s now been about six weeks since any rain fell in south London. Some public parks look like 1930s dustbowls without a green blade of grass in sight. I’ve never seen a summer like this in the UK (note, born after 1976!)

    We've had the tiniest bit of rain recently but the grass is still brown as.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,903

    OT: It’s now been about six weeks since any rain fell in south London. Some public parks look like 1930s dustbowls without a green blade of grass in sight. I’ve never seen a summer like this in the UK (note, born after 1976!)

    It was tipping it down in central London when I arrived back from Birmingham on Friday evening.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
    I think it has to be in person
    Bloody hell, let's not let the future of the country get in the way of their six weeks in Tuscany eh?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    His column is a breach of the ministerial code and he is going to be caught up in the vote leave controversy, but then you are loyal and very set in your ways and views

    I suspect that if Party Policy was to chase HYUFD down with a torches and pitchforks mob, he would be on here telling us how running away from the mob counted as increased exercise and is good for overall health and we should all be doing it ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,249
    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    Andrew said:


    No, I’m much more interested in the casual way in which Leavers accept breaking electoral law because it’s in what they consider a good cause.

    Anyone who broke the law should be prosecuted.

    At the end of the day though, this was £0.5m extra over a £7m limit. It's peanuts compared to the £9m the government spent that somehow wasn't included in the official limits.
    Which other laws are you happy to handwave away? A malleable attitude to right and wrong is hardly a prepossessing trait.
    There are two issues:-

    1. Was the law broken? The Electoral Commission has ruled that it was. Unless those who have been found to have broken the law successfully challenge that finding, then it is entirely correct that they should be fined. If they broke the criminal law, then they should be prosecuted.

    2. Did it alter the result? This is not a legal point (the Referendum was technically advisory) but does matter morally and politically. I don't consider it did alter the result, as the losing side had a very considerable financial advantage, which was only slightly offset by this illegal overspend.
    Agreed on all points, but I would add that Leave won by 1.3 million votes. That makes it extraordinarily unlikely that the (relatively) small sums involved would have been enough to change the result.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    His column is a breach of the ministerial code and he is going to be caught up in the vote leave controversy, but then you are loyal and very set in your ways and views

    I suspect that if Party Policy was to chase HYUFD down with a torches and pitchforks mob, he would be on here telling us how running away from the mob counted as increased exercise and is good for overall health and we should all be doing it ;)
    Hey Beverley_C - great to have your sensible posts back on PB! :smile:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
    I think it has to be in person
    Bloody hell, let's not let the future of the country get in the way of their six weeks in Tuscany eh?
    Thought that was Polly Toynbee
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
    I think it has to be in person
    Bloody hell, let's not let the future of the country get in the way of their six weeks in Tuscany eh?
    Indeed, why is there a recess at all when a brexit is fast turning into a national emergency?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    His column is a breach of the ministerial code and he is going to be caught up in the vote leave controversy, but then you are loyal and very set in your ways and views

    I suspect that if Party Policy was to chase HYUFD down with a torches and pitchforks mob, he would be on here telling us how running away from the mob counted as increased exercise and is good for overall health and we should all be doing it ;)
    So true
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,816
    Mr. Glenn, if they want a head of steam for referendum 2 they could do with some people from the other side of the fence, otherwise it'll look like sore losers, and politicians versus the people.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    OT: It’s now been about six weeks since any rain fell in south London. Some public parks look like 1930s dustbowls without a green blade of grass in sight. I’ve never seen a summer like this in the UK (note, born after 1976!)

    It was tipping it down in central London when I arrived back from Birmingham on Friday evening.

    Just 2.0mm of rain here in North Dorset since 31st May - normally we'd have about 70-80mm in that period. Still no rain forecast and it's going to get hot again over the weekend. Shaping up to be another 1976 imo.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
    I think it has to be in person
    Bloody hell, let's not let the future of the country get in the way of their six weeks in Tuscany eh?
    Indeed, why is there a recess at all when a brexit is fast turning into a national emergency?
    It is not turning - it is a national emergency
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    His column is a breach of the ministerial code and he is going to be caught up in the vote leave controversy, but then you are loyal and very set in your ways and views

    I suspect that if Party Policy was to chase HYUFD down with a torches and pitchforks mob, he would be on here telling us how running away from the mob counted as increased exercise and is good for overall health and we should all be doing it ;)
    You're right. HYUFD is a great asset to the Tory Party. without steadfast loyalists like him they would have folded years ago.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
    I think it has to be in person
    Bloody hell, let's not let the future of the country get in the way of their six weeks in Tuscany eh?
    Thought that was Polly Toynbee
    Future of the country not in dear old Polly's hands - though she could hardly make a worst fist of it than the Tories are!
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
    I think it has to be in person
    Bloody hell, let's not let the future of the country get in the way of their six weeks in Tuscany eh?
    Indeed, why is there a recess at all when a brexit is fast turning into a national emergency?
    It is the EU and the Government and their respective civil servants that need to be sorting this out over the summer - not MPs casting endless academic or meaningless votes on hypotheticals. Perhaps we need more work and more detail and fewer speeches and less plotting!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
    I think it has to be in person
    Bloody hell, let's not let the future of the country get in the way of their six weeks in Tuscany eh?
    Indeed, why is there a recess at all when a brexit is fast turning into a national emergency?
    It is the EU and the Government and their respective civil servants that need to be sorting this out over the summer - not MPs casting endless academic or meaningless votes on hypotheticals. Perhaps we need more work and more detail and fewer speeches and less plotting!
    Actually, you might have a point there!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754

    Mr. Glenn, if they want a head of steam for referendum 2 they could do with some people from the other side of the fence, otherwise it'll look like sore losers, and politicians versus the people.

    Boris Johnson could do us all a favour tomorrow by calling for one...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
    I think it has to be in person
    Bloody hell, let's not let the future of the country get in the way of their six weeks in Tuscany eh?
    Thought that was Polly Toynbee
    Future of the country not in dear old Polly's hands - though she could hardly make a worst fist of it than the Tories are!
    I think everyone is to blame, including labour. If labour had a half decent leader they would be fully backing a Norway model and we would be a good way to resolving it. But labour has got Corbyn, sadly, otherwise they would be out of sight in the polls
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,630
    HYUFD said:

    2 down maybe more to come it is could become an Agatha Christie novel
    More like Cluedo.

    Or No Cluedo......
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,635

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
    I think it has to be in person
    Bloody hell, let's not let the future of the country get in the way of their six weeks in Tuscany eh?
    Indeed, why is there a recess at all when a brexit is fast turning into a national emergency?
    It is not turning - it is a national emergency
    If I were an MP I wouldn't be holidaying on the other side of the world this summer. There's got to be a pretty good chance of Parliament being recalled at some point over the summer.

    Any bookie fancy putting up a market on it? 2/1 or 5/2 the recall?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
    I think it has to be in person
    Bloody hell, let's not let the future of the country get in the way of their six weeks in Tuscany eh?
    Indeed, why is there a recess at all when a brexit is fast turning into a national emergency?
    Guardian saying that Government might table a confidence vote instead of third reading as they expect to lose Customs Union amendment vote.

    Not sure what that means. Surely Tory rebels won't no confidence the government, but then what happens to the Bill?

    Are we heading for a general election rather than a Tory leadership election?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    HYUFD said:

    2 down maybe more to come it is could become an Agatha Christie novel
    More like Cluedo.

    Or No Cluedo......
    Definitely no sign of any little grey cells
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    Roger said:


    His column is a breach of the ministerial code and he is going to be caught up in the vote leave controversy, but then you are loyal and very set in your ways and views

    I suspect that if Party Policy was to chase HYUFD down with a torches and pitchforks mob, he would be on here telling us how running away from the mob counted as increased exercise and is good for overall health and we should all be doing it ;)
    You're right. HYUFD is a great asset to the Tory Party. without steadfast loyalists like him they would have folded years ago.
    I hope I am a steadfast loyalist too but not blind to a disaster in the making. I would never trash Airbus, Jaguar, Rolls Royce, or business in general, having run my own business, and always been for low taxes and very pro business.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,692
    Dramatic stuff in Parliament.

    Surely if Tory Rebels dont fold Customs Union is inserted into Bill

    ERG vote against 3rd reading

    VONC

    Never trust Tory rebels not to fold though
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Sandpit, Lib Dems are lagging miles behind in the civil war stakes.

    Their whip did a pretty good job of having two senior MPs miss a key vote last night - and he only has a dozen of them to organise!
    Labour were all set to abstain last night. This position of theirs was entirely credible, because they have been extraordinarily helpful towards Mrs May`s government throughout this Parliament. But then, suddenly at 8.00, they did an about-turn and decided to oppose the government this time after all. For me, the really interesting question is why they had this sudden volte-face. It is something that they have not yet explained.

    The other thing they need to explain precisely why 4 Labour MPs voted with the Government, and why 14 of them persisted in abstaining.

    The fact that the Lib Dems thought the vote was gong to be entirely symbolic, and gave some of their MPs permission to be out of reach, is just the usual Labour smoke and mirrors.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,003
    I hope we’re not losing PBers for wondering why @William_H is not out campaigning for the Native Americans to reclaim New York.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    Andrew said:


    No, I’m much more interested in the casual way in which Leavers accept breaking electoral law because it’s in what they consider a good cause.

    Anyone who broke the law should be prosecuted.

    At the end of the day though, this was £0.5m extra over a £7m limit. It's peanuts compared to the £9m the government spent that somehow wasn't included in the official limits.
    Which other laws are you happy to handwave away? A malleable attitude to right and wrong is hardly a prepossessing trait.
    There are two issues:-

    1. Was the law broken? The Electoral Commission has ruled that it was. Unless those who have been found to have broken the law successfully challenge that finding, then it is entirely correct that they should be fined. If they broke the criminal law, then they should be prosecuted.

    2. Did it alter the result? This is not a legal point (the Referendum was technically advisory) but does matter morally and politically. I don't consider it did alter the result, as the losing side had a very considerable financial advantage, which was only slightly offset by this illegal overspend.
    Agreed on all points, but I would add that Leave won by 1.3 million votes. That makes it extraordinarily unlikely that the (relatively) small sums involved would have been enough to change the result.
    That depends what the relatively small amount was spent on. If for example it had been spent on the the copywriter who came up with the concept 'THINK SMALL' then you could say a small amount of money totally transformed the fortunes of VW turning it from a basket case to the best selling small car in America and being largely responsible for the rebirth of the German economy after the war.

    I'm afraid 'relatively small amounts of money' equating to a poor return is not a given in the whacky world of advertising
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,692
    BBC News

    May is a mouse in a maze with no exits
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,630

    OT: It’s now been about six weeks since any rain fell in south London. Some public parks look like 1930s dustbowls without a green blade of grass in sight. I’ve never seen a summer like this in the UK (note, born after 1976!)

    It was tipping it down in central London when I arrived back from Birmingham on Friday evening.

    Just 2.0mm of rain here in North Dorset since 31st May - normally we'd have about 70-80mm in that period. Still no rain forecast and it's going to get hot again over the weekend. Shaping up to be another 1976 imo.
    1976 has already been on the phone - it wants its summer back......
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    edited July 2018
    TOPPING said:

    I hope we’re not losing PBers for wondering why @William_H is not out campaigning for the Native Americans to reclaim New York.

    I support the existence of America, as I do the existence of Israel alongside Palestine. I condemn the genocide of the Native Americans, just as I do the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians (and their continued lack of self determination).

    I generally don't get into arguments about native americans online because few now justify the atrocities carried out against them

    It is not I who am being inconsistent.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited July 2018

    His column is a breach of the ministerial code and he is going to be caught up in the vote leave controversy, but then you are loyal and very set in your ways and views

    I suspect that if Party Policy was to chase HYUFD down with a torches and pitchforks mob, he would be on here telling us how running away from the mob counted as increased exercise and is good for overall health and we should all be doing it ;)
    Hey Beverley_C - great to have your sensible posts back on PB! :smile:
    I also cook :D
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    BBC News

    May is a mouse in a maze with no exits

    Substitute May for the Country
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,692

    BBC News

    May is a mouse in a maze with no exits

    Substitute May for the Country
    All thanks to GE2017
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
    I think it has to be in person
    Bloody hell, let's not let the future of the country get in the way of their six weeks in Tuscany eh?
    Thought that was Polly Toynbee
    Future of the country not in dear old Polly's hands - though she could hardly make a worst fist of it than the Tories are!
    I think everyone is to blame, including labour. If labour had a half decent leader they would be fully backing a Norway model and we would be a good way to resolving it. But labour has got Corbyn, sadly, otherwise they would be out of sight in the polls

    I don't know if anyone is actually interested in the reality of this beyond a point scoring exercise but the New Statesman podcast recently covered this topic and Stephen Bush had the view given views they had expressed previously (Corbyns leadership rivals) they would be in a similar style to Corbyn, he gave reasons but the main one I can remember is some statement from Burnham about a guy in his constituency who has no friends because he can't speak Polish. That and the constituencies they represent.

    He did dismiss the idea of Owen Smith from his hypothetical so you could make the argument there I guess.

    Although Stepthen Bush is far from infallible he usually makes a good case and provides evidence for it.

    Edit: also arguably the current strategy is working quite well from a political PoV so as decent politicians I assume they would have taken a similar approach.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,692
    Which is the CU Amendment??
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    William_H said:

    Comrade H, your loyalty to the Supreme Leader does you credit!

    https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1019254187920711680

    Its got nothing to do with Corbyn, its about opposing racism. People should be allowed to say that the denial of their right to self determination and the ethnic cleansing of their parents was racist, no matter what skin colour they are or what religion they possess.
    In his instance it is quite correct. If it is racist to tell the story of the formation of Israel or indeed to even declare the illegal settlers to be illegal settlers then the only way to obey the law involves rewriting history and an assault on natural justice.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Which is the CU Amendment??

    New clause 18.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,742
    William_H said:

    TOPPING said:

    I hope we’re not losing PBers for wondering why @William_H is not out campaigning for the Native Americans to reclaim New York.

    I support the existence of America, as I do the existence of Israel alongside Palestine. I condemn the genocide of the Native Americans, just as I do the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians (and their continued lack of self determination).

    I generally don't get into arguments about native americans online because few now justify the atrocities carried out against them

    It is not I who am being inconsistent.
    How about the ethnic cleansing of Christians and other minorities from the ME over the last hundred years (esp. the Turkish Ottoman genocide against Armenians and others a hundred years ago) ? Racism that is continuing in various ME countries at various scales to this day?

    Why not mention them a little more? Is it because their cause is not as trendy as the Palestinians?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
    I think it has to be in person
    Bloody hell, let's not let the future of the country get in the way of their six weeks in Tuscany eh?
    If you believe the future of the country depends on toppling May
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,692
    brendan16 said:

    Which is the CU Amendment??

    New clause 18.
    Thanks

    Now voting on 17

    What do PBers think?

    On past form the rebels will fold at the last minute

    Will this time be different?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    His column is a breach of the ministerial code and he is going to be caught up in the vote leave controversy, but then you are loyal and very set in your ways and views

    I suspect that if Party Policy was to chase HYUFD down with a torches and pitchforks mob, he would be on here telling us how running away from the mob counted as increased exercise and is good for overall health and we should all be doing it ;)
    I first attended a Tory rally for John Major in 1992 and campaigned for the party in 1997 and every general election since bar 2015 when I was in a politically restricted post. However that does not mean I support all party policy unreservedly, I was not keen on the dementia tax and had reservations on Osborne's 35% of GDP spending target as I have reservations about the Chequers Deal but I am prepared to support it for now to get and get a transition deal
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If there is to.be a confidence vote it will likely be called this week given the summer break coming up

    If they're going to get rid of Theresa it probably makes sense to do it during the August shut-down.

    At least they can argue it's not harming the "negotiations" as there won't be much happening during August anyway...
    If Parliament is not in session though how can a no confidence vote be held by Tory MPs?
    Can they not vote by post? :D
    I think it has to be in person
    Bloody hell, let's not let the future of the country get in the way of their six weeks in Tuscany eh?
    If you believe the future of the country depends on toppling May
    The future of the Country depends on grown ups and there are precious few in the HOC
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    Labour amendment 80 on the Customs Union defeated by 314 votes to 295
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,742

    OT: It’s now been about six weeks since any rain fell in south London. Some public parks look like 1930s dustbowls without a green blade of grass in sight. I’ve never seen a summer like this in the UK (note, born after 1976!)

    It was tipping it down in central London when I arrived back from Birmingham on Friday evening.

    Just 2.0mm of rain here in North Dorset since 31st May - normally we'd have about 70-80mm in that period. Still no rain forecast and it's going to get hot again over the weekend. Shaping up to be another 1976 imo.
    I did another walk in Northamptonshire today, and I could nearly fit my boot in some of the cracks running across some of the fields. I've never seen ground so dry in England (I was three in 1976).

    yet three months ago I had to stop walking the Nene Way because the river was heavily flooded ...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,692
    HYUFD said:

    Labour amendment 80 on the Customs Union defeated by 314 votes to 295

    So would need 10 to swap sides
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    HYUFD said:

    Labour amendment 80 on the Customs Union defeated by 314 votes to 295

    Vote on New clause 17 on staying in the EMA happening now. And then I assume new clause 18 which is the key customs union vote.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    brendan16 said:

    Which is the CU Amendment??

    New clause 18.
    Thanks

    Now voting on 17

    What do PBers think?

    On past form the rebels will fold at the last minute

    Will this time be different?
    No - I think they will rebel due to yesterday events.

    Could TM resign tonight. Now that would be a story
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Still can’t believe Cable and Farron didn’t turn up for last night’s vote.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    edited July 2018
    Government defeated by 4 on NC17 (not the crucial one)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,692

    brendan16 said:

    Which is the CU Amendment??

    New clause 18.
    Thanks

    Now voting on 17

    What do PBers think?

    On past form the rebels will fold at the last minute

    Will this time be different?
    No - I think they will rebel due to yesterday events.

    Could TM resign tonight. Now that would be a story
    Well if ERG vote against 3rd reading she must be in serious danger.

    I keep feeling a bit sorry for her but then i remind myself without GE 2017 ......
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Government defeated by 4 on NC17 (not the crucial one)

    That's Phillip Lee's medicines one, I think. Not crucial.
This discussion has been closed.