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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day goes by and still 48 CON MPs have not sent letters

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  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Speaking of coming to get people, the knives are out for the Labour Leavers who voted with the government today:
    https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1019282500978401280?s=21
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Out of interest would it actually be likely to be in a position to have a GE within 2 weeks of a VONC? I'm no GE expert but it doesn't seem like very long.

    Not be possible - a minimum of 25 working days - ie 5 weeks - between a Dissolution and Polling Day. In practice , likely to be at least 6 weeks.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,692
    Poll in Times
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.

    Or am I missing something?

    The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.
    Didn’t we ever get to the bottom of how someone who was supposedly a Brexiteer managed to do such a handbrake turn in such a short space of time?
    No one had thought of her as a Brexiteer, until she suddenly said she was.

    I guess that supporting Brexit was just a momentary aberration.
    To be fair, she actually wrote quite a good article on why we should Leave before she reversed course. IIRC, she didn't like the Turkey poster and felt Leave was playing to baser instincts.
    She said she defected over the bogus NHS pledge and threat to the economy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/09/dr-sarah-wollaston-defects-vote-leave-remain-campaign
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    brendan16 said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has been told he’s “a fucking anti-semite” by a veteran Jewish MP after the party upheld controversial new guidelines on tackling anti-semitism.

    Furious former minister Margaret Hodge confronted the Labour leader after the crunch Commons votes on Brexit, telling him he didn’t want people like her in the party any more, HuffPost UK has been told....

    ...And Hodge decided to take the matter directly to Corbyn, remonstrating with him in the Commons once the key Brexit votes were over.

    “You’re a fucking anti-Semite and a racist,” Hodge told him. “You have proved you don’t want people like me in the party”.

    Several witnesses in different parties witnessed the attack. One said that Corbyn replied: “I’m sorry you feel like that.”

    A party source confirmed to HuffPost that the account of the exchange was accurate.

    “She was aggressive, Jeremy was calm. Other MPs who were there were upset by it,” the source said.

    It is likely that Hodge will now be referred to the party whips for possible misconduct.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-told-by-veteran-jewish-mp-youre-a-fucking-racist-and-anti-semite-margaret-hodge_uk_5b4e34cbe4b0fd5c73bfe020

    That's not very parliamentary language - but shows she is spending more time in her constituency. She is talking more like a Barking and Dagenham local!
    “I’m sorry you feel like that.” Ugh. The worst kind of non-apology.

    I wonder what Labour’s other Jewish MPs will do.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    PClipp said:

    nunuone said:

    What exactly are the Libdems playing at? I mean as a brexiteer I'm happy they didn't vote again.....but why? Surely they would've known it was going to be a close vote?

    Not so, since Labour said openly that they were going to abstain (as usual). The worst you can accuse the Lib Dems of is that they took Labour at its word. The moral is never to believe Labour about anything.

    And then Labour did an about turn - except for the Labour MPs who abstained, of course, and those who actually voted for Mrs May.

    The normal tactic from Labour in such a situation is to defect attention from their own inadequacies by blaming the Lib Dems for everything.
    Ahh right, so your saying we shouldn't concentrate on the Lib Dems inadequacies because Labour are to blame for it....
    This might be a good time to repeat Andy_Cooke's GIF.
    Lib Dem trustfulness, even innocence, and Labour trickery and deceit. Yup, I think that`s about it. And Tory deceit as well, of course. Led by their new Chief Whip, as I understand it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,786
    Another day where the Left shoot at each other, whilst the nation is left ungoverned.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,786

    Out of interest would it actually be likely to be in a position to have a GE within 2 weeks of a VONC? I'm no GE expert but it doesn't seem like very long.

    I think they mean the vote to hold a GE would be two weeks later.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Speaking of coming to get people, the knives are out for the Labour Leavers who voted with the government today:
    https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1019282500978401280?s=21

    Elliot said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.

    Or am I missing something?

    The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.
    Didn’t we ever get to the bottom of how someone who was supposedly a Brexiteer managed to do such a handbrake turn in such a short space of time?
    No one had thought of her as a Brexiteer, until she suddenly said she was.

    I guess that supporting Brexit was just a momentary aberration.
    It was clearly fake support so she could win headlines of "Brexiteer sees the light".
    She was taken in by the claims of NHS megabucks and unicorns for a few weeks then did her research.

    Some people are still in that first phase
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,786
    Suspect it will be bad for May.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.

    Or am I missing something?

    The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.
    Didn’t we ever get to the bottom of how someone who was supposedly a Brexiteer managed to do such a handbrake turn in such a short space of time?
    No one had thought of her as a Brexiteer, until she suddenly said she was.

    I guess that supporting Brexit was just a momentary aberration.
    To be fair, she actually wrote quite a good article on why we should Leave before she reversed course. IIRC, she didn't like the Turkey poster and felt Leave was playing to baser instincts.
    She certainly has the zeal of a convert, now.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394
    Jonathan said:

    The Tory remainers are clearly not prepared to do anything that could jeapordise the government.

    Much as they hate the ERG, they hate Corbyn more.

    Remained need to get serious or give up.
    12 is a big rebellion.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044

    Speaking of coming to get people, the knives are out for the Labour Leavers who voted with the government today:
    https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1019282500978401280?s=21

    As you all know, I'm a Labour Leaver. But an opportunity to bring down a Tory government is far, far more important than dancing on pin heads over the minutiae on a Brexit deal that will probably never be enacted. These four got their priorities way wrong.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Speaking of coming to get people, the knives are out for the Labour Leavers who voted with the government today:
    https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1019282500978401280?s=21

    As you all know, I'm a Labour Leaver. But an opportunity to bring down a Tory government is far, far more important than dancing on pin heads over the minutiae on a Brexit deal that will probably never be enacted. These four got their priorities way wrong.
    To be brutally honest, I think it’s more than that with those four. I think they don’t want Corbyn to be PM and are willingly to prop up May’s government in order to avoid that potential scenario.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    Out of interest would it actually be likely to be in a position to have a GE within 2 weeks of a VONC? I'm no GE expert but it doesn't seem like very long.

    I think they mean the vote to hold a GE would be two weeks later.
    Ah, I see, thanks.

    And thanks to everyone who explained about the dissolution process.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,786
    Can someone tell me why any of this needed to go through the HoC before being presented to the EU?

    They will tell us 'non' and we are back to square one.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,678
    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tory remainers are clearly not prepared to do anything that could jeapordise the government.

    Much as they hate the ERG, they hate Corbyn more.

    Remained need to get serious or give up.
    12 is a big rebellion.
    You get no prizes for coming close. Win, or you might as well not bother. Surely there are 4 abstentions out there.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Can someone tell me why any of this needed to go through the HoC before being presented to the EU?

    They will tell us 'non' and we are back to square one.

    Exactly.

    We could have been facing a general election about whether we would be in the customs union, an unique customs union where we could negotiate our own trade deals or a facilitated customs partnership (or whatever the Customs union in all but name is which the Government is now proposing).

    At least this way we won't need to waste our time voting.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Speaking of coming to get people, the knives are out for the Labour Leavers who voted with the government today:
    https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1019282500978401280?s=21

    As you all know, I'm a Labour Leaver. But an opportunity to bring down a Tory government is far, far more important than dancing on pin heads over the minutiae on a Brexit deal that will probably never be enacted. These four got their priorities way wrong.
    But it is a load of nonsense because there is no way the Government would fail to win a Vote of Confidence - unless the DUP withdraw their support.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,249

    FF43 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Field, Hoey, Hopkins, Mann and Stringer all voted with the Government to leave the Customs Union

    https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1019282377850449920

    That will upset Faisal Islam
    Gutto Bebb voted for Customs Union Ammendment - but not the earlier one lost by Government.
    I have made my views on him to his constituency chairman. He is my mp
    If you want the Airbus flag to keep flying at Broughton and for Welsh sheep farmers to stay in business, amongst many other reasons to retain the customs union, you might congratulate Gutto Bebb for being realistic and sensible.
    He is not popular and has fought his constituency chair in the past. He was Plaid at one time and of course is in a highly marginal seat with a Corbynista fighting for it.

    TM will protect our main manufacturers and Airbus welcomed Chequers
    That's a man who looks older than his years.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited July 2018

    Speaking of coming to get people, the knives are out for the Labour Leavers who voted with the government today:
    https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1019282500978401280?s=21

    As you all know, I'm a Labour Leaver. But an opportunity to bring down a Tory government is far, far more important than dancing on pin heads over the minutiae on a Brexit deal that will probably never be enacted. These four got their priorities way wrong.
    To be brutally honest, I think it’s more than that with those four. I think they don’t want Corbyn to be PM and are willingly to prop up May’s government in order to avoid that potential scenario.
    Apart from Mann they are also nearing the end of their time in Parliament - so they might as well vote with their gut than their party. You either stand or principle or you do not stand at all. And Labour's ever changing position on Brexit is hardly principled and arguably entirely cynical.

    If you voted for Hoey in Vauxhall expecting her to back remain more fool you.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    RobD said:

    Fenster said:

    For all the abject uselessness of May's government the much-vaunted Remain majority in parliament has been even more useless!

    It has achieved the square root of fuck all in the chamber.

    Five votes against a customs union so far :D
    the golden rule of brexit: every attempt by remainers to thwart brexit only ensures a firmer harder brexit!

    Remainers seem stuck on stage 1 & 2 of the five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    Can someone tell me why any of this needed to go through the HoC before being presented to the EU?

    They will tell us 'non' and we are back to square one.

    They need the trade and customs bills to go through to be even theoretically ready for Brexit.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Brandon Lewis has apologised to Jo Swinson. Sounds like it was a cock up by the Tory Whips.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044
    What percentage don't lurk on PB?

    Actually, I find it depressing that 57% of voters DO use Facebook.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    justin124 said:

    Brandon Lewis has apologised to Jo Swinson. Sounds like it was a cock up by the Tory Whips.

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1019326263956267009
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    This kind of coverage won't make it easier for Labour Brexiteers to continue to support the government in crunch votes going forwards:

    image
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    justin124 said:

    Brandon Lewis has apologised to Jo Swinson. Sounds like it was a cock up by the Tory Whips.

    I'm not a cynic about politics but frankly I don't believe it. It's not credible that he forgot he was paired, voted in the two marginal votes and otherwise cheerfully broke the whip in every single vote. That's the unmistakable behaviour of someone who knows he's paired and breaks it when it's close.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    BBC Europe correspondent just reported that the EU do want a deal as they cannot afford the job loses and are looking at easing the wording on the Irish border to achieve a deal

    They must have picked up the real possibility of a hard Brexit and it is focussing minds
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,903

    What percentage don't lurk on PB?

    Actually, I find it depressing that 57% of voters DO use Facebook.
    Wouldn't the remaining 57% include those that DON'T KNOW they use Facebook?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,903
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    kjohnw said:

    RobD said:

    Fenster said:

    For all the abject uselessness of May's government the much-vaunted Remain majority in parliament has been even more useless!

    It has achieved the square root of fuck all in the chamber.

    Five votes against a customs union so far :D
    the golden rule of brexit: every attempt by remainers to thwart brexit only ensures a firmer harder brexit!

    Remainers seem stuck on stage 1 & 2 of the five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance
    I knew that someone else would quote the Brexit golden rule eventually :)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044
    Scott_P said:
    It's coming home!

    We've definitely got a trend here. At bloody last.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Is that 10 point spread the biggest we’ve seen since the election?
  • LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457

    This kind of coverage won't make it easier for Labour Brexiteers to continue to support the government in crunch votes going forwards:

    image

    You are wrong. They maintain long time passion and belief in voting that way, at the same time pride themselves on being outspoken radical, left field independent minded MPs, that front page will only inspire them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    edited July 2018

    Is that 10 point spread the biggest we’ve seen since the election?
    No there have been a couple of Remain/Leave polls showing 55/45 but this is different as it is based on the Justine Greening AV referendum option. In this poll, the deal would be eliminated first.

    Round one is:

    Remain: 50%
    Deal: 17%
    No Deal: 33%
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Scott_P said:
    Interesting to see Labour pulling away despite no significant change in the UKIP vote. I don't think that's a surge of enthusiasm for Labour since we've not been particularly noticeable in the media for some time; rather it's people giving up on the Tories.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    We've pretty much been around 40% since the election although this is one of the higher scores since the post election honeymoon period (which went to us instead of the government) does seem close to something of a ceiling outside of an election period. Although that is quite a high and potentially election winning ceiling even if we can't improve on it much.

    New thread by the way.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited July 2018

    The Tory remainers are clearly not prepared to do anything that could jeapordise.

    Scott_P said:
    It's coming home!

    We've definitely got a trend here. At bloody last.
    Pity your Leave MPs voted to keep the Tories in power.
This discussion has been closed.