I hope we’re not losing PBers for wondering why @William_H is not out campaigning for the Native Americans to reclaim New York.
I support the existence of America, as I do the existence of Israel alongside Palestine. I condemn the genocide of the Native Americans, just as I do the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians (and their continued lack of self determination).
I generally don't get into arguments about native americans online because few now justify the atrocities carried out against them
It is not I who am being inconsistent.
@Cyclefree very eloquently explained to you the situation of the Palestinians.
Of course it doesn’t suit your preferred narrative but them was the facts.
On past form the rebels will fold at the last minute
Will this time be different?
No - I think they will rebel due to yesterday events.
Could TM resign tonight. Now that would be a story
I’m not sure resigning is a thing she does. It’s not clear to me why NC18 is worse than the ERG amendments adopted by the government yesterday (if you squint slightly, both of them could be seen as approximately compatible with Chequers) so I can’t see why she would take yesterday’s events in her stride and then be completely destabilised by a comparable defeat from the other flank.
The level of anger about yesterday seems very high on the moderate wing of the party, and it looks like the whips are having to resort to some pretty extreme threats - question is whether they will be taken seriously.
On past form the rebels will fold at the last minute
Will this time be different?
No - I think they will rebel due to yesterday events.
Could TM resign tonight. Now that would be a story
I’m not sure resigning is a thing she does. It’s not clear to me why NC18 is worse than the ERG amendments adopted by the government yesterday (if you squint slightly, both of them could be seen as approximately compatible with Chequers) so I can’t see why she would take yesterday’s events in her stride and then be completely destabilised by a comparable defeat from the other flank.
The level of anger about yesterday seems very high on the moderate wing of the party, and it looks like the whips are having to resort to some pretty extreme threats - question is whether they will be taken seriously.
Looks as if ERG may have pushed things too far. Won the battle and lost the war, maybe
Government defeated by 4 on NC17 (not the crucial one)
That's Phillip Lee's medicines one, I think. Not crucial.
Wouldn't it imply membership of the EEA?
Well it's an EU agency which oversees medicines in the EU and EEA member states. Not sure if a non EEA/EU member can be a member of the EMA but there is always a first.
Switzerland isn't a member but does have mutual recognition agreements in place with the EMA.
On past form the rebels will fold at the last minute
Will this time be different?
No - I think they will rebel due to yesterday events.
Could TM resign tonight. Now that would be a story
I’m not sure resigning is a thing she does. It’s not clear to me why NC18 is worse than the ERG amendments adopted by the government yesterday (if you squint slightly, both of them could be seen as approximately compatible with Chequers) so I can’t see why she would take yesterday’s events in her stride and then be completely destabilised by a comparable defeat from the other flank.
The level of anger about yesterday seems very high on the moderate wing of the party, and it looks like the whips are having to resort to some pretty extreme threats - question is whether they will be taken seriously.
I’m not sure the threats are being taken particularly seriously, but the strong arm treatment of the rebels compared to that of the ERG rebels appears to be helping make them rather angry.
First time for a while I've watched the Parliament channel live.
Enjoy it while you can.
It's being heavily scaled back - from next week it will only broadcast when parliament is sitting (rather than 24 hour coverage all year round as now) and will have no original or analysis shows programming due to BBC cuts.
I hope we’re not losing PBers for wondering why @William_H is not out campaigning for the Native Americans to reclaim New York.
I support the existence of America, as I do the existence of Israel alongside Palestine. I condemn the genocide of the Native Americans, just as I do the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians (and their continued lack of self determination).
I generally don't get into arguments about native americans online because few now justify the atrocities carried out against them
It is not I who am being inconsistent.
@Cyclefree very eloquently explained to you the situation of the Palestinians.
Of course it doesn’t suit your preferred narrative but them was the facts.
Using the Israel-Palestine argument and transferring it to the native Americans I assume all Israel supporters would enthusiastically support the native Americans taking back America and kicking out the people who live there in a couple of thousand years time if they move to another continent and suffer a terrible genocide in that time...
There never usually seems to be as much enthusiasm for the comparison once you look into it in a bit more depth.
Er, haven’t we had a vote on staying in the customs union before? This whole Brexit process feels like Groundhog Day....
Yes various customs amendments have been defeated 5 times now. Personally I'd favour it in an ideal world but Id have voted against it this time on the basis the house has rejected it 4 times.aleady
So 3 Labour MPs turned down the opportunity to trigger a no-confidence vote (if Julian Smith’s threats are to be believed)... interesting priorities for an opposition.
Interesting outcome. Suggests there is a majority in the House comfortable with hard Brexit.
Hold on to your knickers. This sucker’s going down, as George Bush once said.
Given 408 out of 650 MPs constituencies voted Leave it is not surprising the Commons has voted to Leave the Single Market and Customs Union.
Until say Chuka Umunna wins a general election on a pro single market platform there is likely to be a narrow majority in the Commons for hard Brexit for some time to come, especially as neither the Tories nor Corbyn support staying in the single market even if Corbyn had got his way and we stayed in a Customs Union after tonight's votes
The size of these government victories will encourage the Lords to play ping pong in the Autumn. Unless May has made progress on her fantasy Customs Partnership which she wasn't going to anyway and certainly won't after yesterday's capitulation. We'll be here again in the Autumn. The only question is will the undetlying dynamic between now and then have strengthened the governments hand or further weakened it ? Still nice to see the Tory Europhiles finally fighting back even if they don't have the numbers yet. The EMA defeat of the government is symbolic but symbolism matters.
Interesting outcome. Suggests there is a majority in the House comfortable with hard Brexit.
Hold on to your knickers. This sucker’s going down, as George Bush once said.
Surely it was the President after Bush who said that?
Edit - re your other point, the thing is that Hard Brexit is now the default. The only thing we have learned in the last fortnight is that nobody, including Parliament and the EU, can agree on an alternative. That makes the default the likely outcome.
Interesting outcome. Suggests there is a majority in the House comfortable with hard Brexit.
Hold on to your knickers. This sucker’s going down, as George Bush once said.
Let the stockpiling of tinned foods begin.
Not for us country bumpkins. I look forward to the BBC headlines, moped gangs mug sharp suited city dweller of a tin of baked beans but leave the iphone and massive "wally" watch.
Er, haven’t we had a vote on staying in the customs union before? This whole Brexit process feels like Groundhog Day....
Yes various customs amendments have been defeated 5 times now. Personally I'd favour it in an ideal world but Id have voted against it this time on the basis the house has rejected it 4 times.aleady
So why the doom and gloom regarding this particular vote by some commentators? Since the house has already rejected these amendments before, today is hardly surprising. Yet all over twitter there’s comments suggesting we are definitely heading towards a Hard Brexit. The mood seems to chop and change: one minute we’re going to have a Soft Brexit, the next a Hard Brexit. And commentators make these conclusions definitively each and every time until themood swings again. This whole process is beyond tedious at this stage.
So 3 Labour MPs turned down the opportunity to trigger a no-confidence vote (if Julian Smith’s threats are to be believed)... interesting priorities for an opposition.
All because they are desperate to leave the customs union!?
Against the stated policy of their leader, the trades unions, and what I imagine is also the view of both the membership and labour voters.
I can understand Labour leavers backing the end of FOM but desperately saving a Tory govt for this!?
The size of these government victories will encourage the Lords to play ping pong in the Autumn. Unless May has made progress on her fantasy Customs Partnership which she wasn't going to anyway and certainly won't after yesterday's capitulation. We'll be here again in the Autumn. The only question is will the undetlying dynamic between now and then have strengthened the governments hand or further weakened it ? Still nice to see the Tory Europhiles finally fighting back even if they don't have the numbers yet. The EMA defeat of the government is symbolic but symbolism matters.
Might they be trying to delay these votes until after the deal is struck?
Then it becomes a “vote this down and you get hard Brexit” line..
So 3 Labour MPs turned down the opportunity to trigger a no-confidence vote (if Julian Smith’s threats are to be believed)... interesting priorities for an opposition.
But the Government would have won any confidence vote!
But the ( current ) direction of travel is clear. If the government is down to a majority of 6 after the ' Nuclear Option ' ( though the FTPA has reduced the megatonage ) of a Confidence vote threat has been deployed where will we be in the Autumn ? After all these votes are all dress rehersal. You can't will into existence a UK/EU agreement by unilatetally amending domestic legislation after all. The big votes come in the Winter. The question is can the government change the direction of travel ? Because after this week ( a ) it has to do what the ERG says ( b ) can onkybthen pass what the ERG says by 6 votes.
Is 6 votes in July going to last till next April ?
So 3 Labour MPs turned down the opportunity to trigger a no-confidence vote (if Julian Smith’s threats are to be believed)... interesting priorities for an opposition.
All because they are desperate to leave the customs union!?
Against the stated policy of their leader, the trades unions, and what I imagine is also the view of both the membership and labour voters.
I can understand Labour leavers backing the end of FOM but desperately saving a Tory govt for this!?
What was that article (Blair’s?) which pointed out that every other Leaver article of faith had been shown to be a sham and hence they are now clinging on to the Customs Union which as a result has become totemic.
But the ( current ) direction of travel is clear. If the government is down to a majority of 6 after the ' Nuclear Option ' ( though the FTPA has reduced the megatonage ) of a Confidence vote threat has been deployed where will we be in the Autumn ? After all these votes are all dress rehersal. You can't will into existence a UK/EU agreement by unilatetally amending domestic legislation after all. The big votes come in the Winter. The question is can the government change the direction of travel ? Because after this week ( a ) it has to do what the ERG says ( b ) can onkybthen pass what the ERG says by 6 votes.
Is 6 votes in July going to last till next April ?
But a Confidence Vote is not a nuclear option at all - the Government would win it!
This hard Tory brexit has revealed the true intentions of the Lib Dems,to be the enabling handmaidens of the Tories.Cable and Farron are the midwives of a hard Tory brexit and the allies of the ERG.My money is on May clinging on,but Cable getting the boot before her.
This hard Tory brexit has revealed the true intentions of the Lib Dems,to be the enabling haidnaidens of the Tories.Cable and Farron are the midwives of a hard Tory brexit and the allies of the ERG.My money is on May clinging on,but Cable getting the boot before her.
This hard Tory brexit has revealed the true intentions of the Lib Dems,to be the enabling handmaidens of the Tories.Cable and Farron are the midwives of a hard Tory brexit and the allies of the ERG.My money is on May clinging on,but Cable getting the boot before her.
As it happens their votes would not have changed the outcome last night - simply a Government majority of 1 rather than 3.
The size of these government victories will encourage the Lords to play ping pong in the Autumn. Unless May has made progress on her fantasy Customs Partnership which she wasn't going to anyway and certainly won't after yesterday's capitulation. We'll be here again in the Autumn. The only question is will the undetlying dynamic between now and then have strengthened the governments hand or further weakened it ? Still nice to see the Tory Europhiles finally fighting back even if they don't have the numbers yet. The EMA defeat of the government is symbolic but symbolism matters.
Might they be trying to delay these votes until after the deal is struck?
Then it becomes a “vote this down and you get hard Brexit” line..
Agreed. We all keep saying " there is no majority for anything in the Commons " but there will be a majority against a No deal No Deal - no A50 agreement and legal chaos. So doubtless the government strategy will be to kick everything possible into the transition period and hold a ' vote for this or the Dog gets it ' vote as late as possible before Brexit Day. So curiously you have two delay dynamics tunning concurrently. The long we wait the further the government decays but the nearer the cliff edge we get the more powerfully the government can frame the A50 Ratification Bill as ' back us or doomsday '.
How those two competing dynamics play out will be fascinating.
Er, haven’t we had a vote on staying in the customs union before? This whole Brexit process feels like Groundhog Day....
Yes various customs amendments have been defeated 5 times now. Personally I'd favour it in an ideal world but Id have voted against it this time on the basis the house has rejected it 4 times.aleady
Reality will hit eventually and we will be in the customs Union because there is very little reason not to be. That parliament has voted five times against simply shows how divorced from reality it has become.
Er, haven’t we had a vote on staying in the customs union before? This whole Brexit process feels like Groundhog Day....
Yes various customs amendments have been defeated 5 times now. Personally I'd favour it in an ideal world but Id have voted against it this time on the basis the house has rejected it 4 times.aleady
Reality will hit wrist and we will be in the customs Union because there is very little reason not to be. That parliament has voted five times against simply shows how divorced from reality it has become.
John Mann, Frank Field, Kate Hoey and Graham Stringer
Plus Kelvin Hopkins currently suspended. To be fair these people do hold strong views on the issue and we need to remember that until late 80/early 90s Labour was more Euroscepric than the Tories! I would have thought that the Labour Whips might have more luck working on the abstainers such as Caroline Flint.
The Government was also saved by Labour abstentions tonight. Perhaps pressure will be applied to them before 'ping pong' resumes in the Autumn.
Yes - 12 Con rebels and 4 Lab rebels equals a Govt defeat if equal number of abstentions.
Must have been approx 9 more Opposition abstentions than Con abstentions - that's a lot.
How does this work?
Excluding Sinn Fein and speakers the Government has a majority of 13. That means 7 Tory rebels can defeat the government. If 5 Labour MPs vote with the government, 12 rebels becomes the magic number.
You only need 2 more Lab abstentions for the Government to win. I’d be surprised if Caroline Flint would ever vote for any of these amendments that neuter Brexit. You only need 1 more.
Er, haven’t we had a vote on staying in the customs union before? This whole Brexit process feels like Groundhog Day....
Yes various customs amendments have been defeated 5 times now. Personally I'd favour it in an ideal world but Id have voted against it this time on the basis the house has rejected it 4 times.aleady
So why the doom and gloom regarding this particular vote by some commentators? Since the house has already rejected these amendments before, today is hardly surprising. Yet all over twitter there’s comments suggesting we are definitely heading towards a Hard Brexit. The mood seems to chop and change: one minute we’re going to have a Soft Brexit, the next a Hard Brexit. And commentators make these conclusions definitively each and every time until themood swings again. This whole process is beyond tedious at this stage.
Agreed to the extreme. We still keep changing what counts as hard and soft in any case, so it's misplaced tedium as well.
This hard Tory brexit has revealed the true intentions of the Lib Dems,to be the enabling handmaidens of the Tories.Cable and Farron are the midwives of a hard Tory brexit and the allies of the ERG.My money is on May clinging on,but Cable getting the boot before her.
As it happens their votes would not have changed the outcome last night - simply a Government majority of 1 rather than 3.
A shame that - we don't get many opportunities for a majority of 1, so it would have been hilarious.
So 3 Labour MPs turned down the opportunity to trigger a no-confidence vote (if Julian Smith’s threats are to be believed)... interesting priorities for an opposition.
There are things more important than party politics, especially when the government is so flimsy like this one that there will be further opportunities.
All Brexit has left going for it is it's inevitability. If that goes then it's game on. Which as ever takes us back to public opinion. Which fundamentally hasn't changed. The big question now is whether than fundamental consistency of public opinion holds in the heat of the Autumn/Winter Crisis that's now approaching. On the one hand the demographic underpinnings of both Brexit blocs looks remarkably solid. On the other hand Leave has had no fresh momentum since the early May government put the machinery of state behind it. It's a supertanker moving on momentum butvwith it's engine switched off.
We'll see but it's going to be genuinely historic either way.
John Mann, Frank Field, Kate Hoey and Graham Stringer
Just spared us a VONC
But that would only have been a day of theatre which the Government would have won anyway. At the end of the day the Opposition can always table a No Confidence Vote.
John Mann, Frank Field, Kate Hoey and Graham Stringer
Plus Kelvin Hopkins currently suspended. To be fair these people do hold strong views on the issue and we need to remember that until late 80/early 90s Labour was more Euroscepric than the Tories! I would have thought that the Labour Whips might have more luck working on the abstainers such as Caroline Flint.
We need more MPs voting for what they believe in not just toeing the whips line for cynical advantage. A good day for democracy.
John Mann, Frank Field, Kate Hoey and Graham Stringer
Plus Kelvin Hopkins currently suspended. To be fair these people do hold strong views on the issue and we need to remember that until late 80/early 90s Labour was more Euroscepric than the Tories! I would have thought that the Labour Whips might have more luck working on the abstainers such as Caroline Flint.
We need more MPs voting for what they believe in not just toeing the whips line for cynical advantage. A good day for democracy.
All Brexit has left going for it is it's inevitability. If that goes then it's game on. Which as ever takes us back to public opinion. Which fundamentally hasn't changed. The big question now is whether than fundamental consistency of public opinion holds in the heat of the Autumn/Winter Crisis that's now approaching. On the one hand the demographic underpinnings of both Brexit blocs looks remarkably solid. On the other hand Leave has had no fresh momentum since the early May government put the machinery of state behind it. It's a supertanker moving on momentum butvwith it's engine switched off.
We'll see but it's going to be genuinely historic either way.
The YouGov tracker shows unprecedented pessimism about how Brexit is going, but the number of people saying it was the right decision still hasn't dipped below 40% at any time. That will feel like a sea change if it happens.
The Speaker votes for the status quo, i.e. against the amendment.
That is the rule, but Bercow doesn't like tradition, would he do so?
I don't think that's a rule, merely a convention. Melville was impeached in 1805 on the casting vote of a speaker.
David Steel used his casting vote as Presiding Officer to pass a motion changing the status quo in the Scottish Parliament. Widely criticised at the time for breaking UK parliamentry ' convention ' but it's just that. Convention.
Comments
Suggests they may lose on clause 18 too.
Big one is 18 coming up now
Of course it doesn’t suit your preferred narrative but them was the facts.
Edit: Actually I'm surprised the government didn't just accept it. It doesn't seem very controversial.
The level of anger about yesterday seems very high on the moderate wing of the party, and it looks like the whips are having to resort to some pretty extreme threats - question is whether they will be taken seriously.
If one moves back to Govt its a tie
What happens then????
Its not passed the 6 tests remember
Switzerland isn't a member but does have mutual recognition agreements in place with the EMA.
http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl=pages/partners_and_networks/general/general_content_001712.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058009b148
But apparently not angry enough...
It's being heavily scaled back - from next week it will only broadcast when parliament is sitting (rather than 24 hour coverage all year round as now) and will have no original or analysis shows programming due to BBC cuts.
Coincidentally, the acronym of that describes many people involved on all sides, starting with the Commission and the DExEU
There never usually seems to be as much enthusiasm for the comparison once you look into it in a bit more depth.
Suggests there is a majority in the House comfortable with hard Brexit.
Hold on to your knickers. This sucker’s going down, as George Bush once said.
It’s ridiculous. MPs need to get the message this time...
Until say Chuka Umunna wins a general election on a pro single market platform there is likely to be a narrow majority in the Commons for hard Brexit for some time to come, especially as neither the Tories nor Corbyn support staying in the single market even if Corbyn had got his way and we stayed in a Customs Union after tonight's votes
Edit - re your other point, the thing is that Hard Brexit is now the default. The only thing we have learned in the last fortnight is that nobody, including Parliament and the EU, can agree on an alternative. That makes the default the likely outcome.
The Good Ship May sails on serenely.
Against the stated policy of their leader, the trades unions, and what I imagine is also the view of both the membership and labour voters.
I can understand Labour leavers backing the end of FOM but desperately saving a Tory govt for this!?
Then it becomes a “vote this down and you get hard Brexit” line..
Is 6 votes in July going to last till next April ?
https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1019282377850449920
Must have been approx 9 more Opposition abstentions than Con abstentions - that's a lot.
How those two competing dynamics play out will be fascinating.
Excluding Sinn Fein and speakers the Government has a majority of 13. That means 7 Tory rebels can defeat the government. If 5 Labour MPs vote with the government, 12 rebels becomes the magic number.
You only need 2 more Lab abstentions for the Government to win. I’d be surprised if Caroline Flint would ever vote for any of these amendments that neuter Brexit. You only need 1 more.
We'll see but it's going to be genuinely historic either way.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6krrxypwta/YG Trackers - EU Tracker Questions_W.pdf
And that was before tonight. He was in Plaid before 2002