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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis. Brexit: How We Got Here & What We Want

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  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,003

    TOPPING said:

    Alistair said:

    TOPPING said:

    OK back in the real world I have just been to Lidl for the first time.

    Amazeballs. You can buy anything from a slice of pizza to a canoe. The range is great organic this, free range that, big brands, own brands, all in a well-lit, air conned space.

    Anything else anyone wants to know?

    Ah, the first time Lidl shopper.

    Their pizza is utter shit. Their olive oil is good. Their organic fair trade freeze dried coffee is, and I understand the caveat here, the best instant coffee you can buy.

    In tomatoes season the regularly have the best tinned tomatoes at unbelievably low prices.

    But the middle aisle is where the joy is at. What random awesome thing can you buy this week?
    it didn’t disappoint.
    "You can buy anything from a slice of pizza to a canoe."

    You can't though can you? You might be able to buy the pizza and (once in a blue moon) a canoe but it's the everyday basics in between that are often missing. I don't know how people manage to do their weekly shop there, unless they have a very limited pallette and/or rarely cook from scratch.

    On the plus side: smoked salmon, gravlax, wine and, as noted before, olive oil is good value there and they often have interesting continental foods you don't often see elsewhere.
    What exactly is missing? Give me some examples.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,003
    edited July 2018
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    May says she is in it for the long haul in answer to whether she will stand and fight a no confidence vote

    May doesn’t have an option. In a no confidence vote of course she’s “standing” - if she loses, she can’t stand in the consequent election....
    I suppose May could resign at the time such a vote is announced and so pre-empt the need for it. Perhaps that is what Marr meant.
    I am not sure why May would lose a VoNC. Are there enough votes to defeat her ? Also, does it not guarantee her one more year which is exactly what the Headbangers do not want, surely.
    May would lose a VoNC because the one simple truth that unites the Conservative Party is that May is crap and must not in any circumstances lead another election campaign. There is no pro-May faction. Since no MP who can count believes Mogg or Boris has a cat in hell's chance of replacing May, there is no reason to support her.
    If the Mogg and Boris backing MPs unite behind behind one of them they certainly have a chance of reaching the final two and of winning the membership vote
    If the Mogg and Boris backing MPs unite that will be 50 or 60 votes at most which is not enough in an electorate of more than 300. That's why they daren't stick the knife in May: they'd be stuck with Hammond, Hunt or Javid.
    Uh no. 120 odd Tory MPs voted Leave as did most Tory seats and even a few Remainers like Soames backed Boris last time. If there is a VONC now May likely survives for the time being but with maybe 100+ Tory MPs voting against her
    Estimates of ERG membership vary between about 30 and 50. There's a difference between MPs (and people generally) who voted Leave because more money for the NHS seems like a good idea or bananas are the wrong shape, and those who feel very strongly about it -- strongly enough to let Brexit overrule doubts about Mogg's inexperience or Boris's unsoundness. Those who feel strongly enough to join the ERG, for instance. Even if you add in a few more for Gove and Davis, we are still looking at a final two BINO-ists or Remainers.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    I believe the PB Tory term is “doing an Adonis”.

    Of course, HYUFD is the arch or ur PB Tory which begs the question, whither PB Toryism now?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    May says she is in it for the long haul in answer to whether she will stand and fight a no confidence vote

    May doesn’t have an option. In a no confidence vote of course she’s “standing” - if she loses, she can’t stand in the consequent election....
    I suppose May could resign at the time such a vote is announced and so pre-empt the need for it. Perhaps that is what Marr meant.
    I am not sure why May would lose a VoNC. Are there enough votes to defeat her ? Also, does it not guarantee her one more year which is exactly what the Headbangers do not want, surely.
    May would lose a VoNC because the one simple truth that unites the Conservative Party is that May is crap and must not in any circumstances lead another election campaign. There is no pro-May faction. Since no MP who can count believes Mogg or Boris has a cat in hell's chance of replacing May, there is no reason to support her.
    If the Mogg and Boris backing MPs unite behind behind one of them they certainly have a chance of reaching the final two and of winning the membership vote
    If the Mogg and Boris backing MPs unite that will be 50 or 60 votes at most which is not enough in an electorate of more than 300. That's why they daren't stick the knife in May: they'd be stuck with Hammond, Hunt or Javid.
    Uh no. 120 odd Tory MPs voted Leave as did most Tory seats and even a few Remainers like Soames backed Boris last time. If there is a VONC now May likely survives for the time being but with maybe 100+ Tory MPs voting against her
    Estimates of ERG membership vary between about 30 and 50. There's a difference between MPs (and people generally) who voted Leave because more money for the NHS seems like a good idea or bananas are the wrong shape, and those who feel very strongly about it -- strongly enough to let Brexit overrule doubts about Mogg's inexperience or Boris's unsoundness. Those who feel strongly enough to join the ERG, for instance. Even if you add in a few more for Gove and Davis, we are still looking at a final two BINO-ists or Remainers.
    Where are those numbers from? They had 62 signatories to a letter in February this year.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,442

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    I believe the PB Tory term is “doing an Adonis”.

    Of course, HYUFD is the arch or ur PB Tory which begs the question, whither PB Toryism now?
    After nearly ten years in power, in a democratic system, it would be worrying if the government still commanded widespread support. For democracy to flourish we need options and we need government to change hands so those involved can refresh, reform and rethink. For the last 40 years we've had a problem in that there's never really been a time when both parties have been fit to hold power.

    That said, this level of shambles is also quite rare, fortunately.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    Well, when May was for hard Brexit many of the high profile posters on here spent their entire time predicting her downfall and saying how terrible she was - now she has sold out they suddenly think she is wonderful.

    At least I can say that I didn't like May before she became PM, didn't like her when she was promising a real Brexit and don't like her now. In addition to being a lying duplicitous coward, she has always been politically talentless.

    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,442

    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.

    If his future depends on making a good speech then he's in real trouble.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,003

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    Well, when May was for hard Brexit many of the high profile posters on here spent their entire time predicting her downfall and saying how terrible she was - now she has sold out they suddenly think she is wonderful.

    At least I can say that I didn't like May before she became PM, didn't like her when she was promising a real Brexit and don't like her now. In addition to being a lying duplicitous coward, she has always been politically talentless.

    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    May has never been able to make decisions. She is an administrator not an innovator. She listens to whoever shouts loudest and that, for many months, was the Brexiters.

    So have the Remainers upped their decibel level? No. It was the now unignorable deadline that drowned out every other voice and hence is what she is responding to.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    William_H said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    May says she is in it for the long haul in answer to whether she will stand and fight a no confidence vote

    May doesn’t have an option. In a no confidence vote of course she’s “standing” - if she loses, she can’t stand in the consequent election....
    I suppose May could resign at the time such a vote is announced and so pre-empt the need for it. Perhaps that is what Marr meant.
    I am not sure why May would lose a VoNC. Are there enough votes to defeat her ? Also, does it not guarantee her one more year which is exactly what the Headbangers do not want, surely.
    May would lose a VoNC because the one simple truth that unites the Conservative Party is that May is crap and must not in any circumstances lead another election campaign. There is no pro-May faction. Since no MP who can count believes Mogg or Boris has a cat in hell's chance of replacing May, there is no reason to support her.
    If the Mogg and Boris backing MPs unite behind behind one of them they certainly have a chance of reaching the final two and of winning the membership vote
    If the Mogg and Boris backing MPs unite that will be 50 or 60 votes at most which is not enough in an electorate of more than 300. That's why they daren't stick the knife in May: they'd be stuck with Hammond, Hunt or Javid.
    Pretty cowardly of them. Do they believe in a hard Brexit or not? If they do, make a stand even if they lose.
    That would be virtue signalling, surely?
    They're going to use the tactics which give them the best chance of succeeding, and that means voting down May's Brexit in the commons, not trying to unseat her.
    I think is is pretty obvious that the ERG don't want to challenge May right now, they want to wait until the EU start tearing apart her deal. Once this happens and it is clear that May's deal won't work, panic will set in and I think May could easily lose a VONC. At the moment she is pretending to have the one Brexit plan that works which is enough to keep the Remainers and generally self-interested Tory MPs on board, but if her plan is cactus then what is the point of her?
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    Well, when May was for hard Brexit many of the high profile posters on here spent their entire time predicting her downfall and saying how terrible she was - now she has sold out they suddenly think she is wonderful.

    At least I can say that I didn't like May before she became PM, didn't like her when she was promising a real Brexit and don't like her now. In addition to being a lying duplicitous coward, she has always been politically talentless.

    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    May has never been able to make decisions. She is an administrator not an innovator. She listens to whoever shouts loudest and that, for many months, was the Brexiters.

    So have the Remainers upped their decibel level? No. It was the now unignorable deadline that drowned out every other voice and hence is what she is responding to.
    I think May is just a person who relies on someone else for opinions. When is was Nick and Fi, she was getting Hard Brexit input. When they went, she went for Robbins and now does whatever he says. I don't think she has any firm opinions of her own which is why she is easy to move, once you have her ear.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    maaarsh said:


    Estimates of ERG membership vary between about 30 and 50. There's a difference between MPs (and people generally) who voted Leave because more money for the NHS seems like a good idea or bananas are the wrong shape, and those who feel very strongly about it -- strongly enough to let Brexit overrule doubts about Mogg's inexperience or Boris's unsoundness. Those who feel strongly enough to join the ERG, for instance. Even if you add in a few more for Gove and Davis, we are still looking at a final two BINO-ists or Remainers.

    Where are those numbers from? They had 62 signatories to a letter in February this year.
    There are various analyses from early in the year -- google Conservative ERG or some such -- but the numbers are generally based on searching MPs' expense claims for the £2,000 membership fee and on asking insiders.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/06/jacob-rees-mogg-and-the-shadowy-group-of-tories-shaping-brexit

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    edited July 2018
    ydoethur said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    I believe the PB Tory term is “doing an Adonis”.

    Of course, HYUFD is the arch or ur PB Tory which begs the question, whither PB Toryism now?
    After nearly ten years in power, in a democratic system, it would be worrying if the government still commanded widespread support. For democracy to flourish we need options and we need government to change hands so those involved can refresh, reform and rethink. For the last 40 years we've had a problem in that there's never really been a time when both parties have been fit to hold power.

    That said, this level of shambles is also quite rare, fortunately.
    Though in fact - I suspect it just feels so much longer - this govt has been in office for just over 8 years. At the same period (1987) Mrs T had won her second landslide victory.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:

    Rexel56 said:

    David Davis: Britain must be able to control all regulations after Brexit

    https://www.ft.com/content/ee9c34ac-86af-11e8-9199-c2a4754b5a0e

    Paywalled for me but if that is what DD wants then you have to wonder if he understands international trade at all. There have to be rules, whether as part of a customs union, free trade agreement or WTO. Britain is not isolated like cold war Albania. Given there must be regulations, we cannot control them and our ability even to influence them is compromised by Brexit.
    One can only sigh when one sees nonsense like that. The sad irony is that the long term trend is toward globalisation of standards, Brexit is merely a pause in what is an inevitable path to a time when the notion of unilateral, national control of standards and regulation will be a very distant memory.
    IMHO, people will keep pushing back against international harmonisation. For example, I don't think there will ever be a time when you could qualify as a solicitor in England and practise in Italy.
    You have been able to do exactly that for more than a decade.
    I would have to requalify in Italy. I can't just go over to Italy and start litigating, or selling property.
    We do not want an integrated legal system, though, do we.

    There’s a reason London is the world’s legal capital.
    With my pedant's hat on - I think you mean 'the world's leading centre for legal matters.'

    Unless the One World Government has been promulgated and headquartered in London without my noticing.
    It has. Sorry, we should have let you know.
    So why the f*** are we still arguing about Brexit? :tongue:
    You have to give the people distractions or they might be worried about the secret One World Government!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,757

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    Surely the bigger point, as Mrs Thatcher observed - if a government is not behind in the polls before mid-term its not doing it right. To govern is to choose and inevitably some of those choices will be unpopular - better to get them out of the way sooner rather than later.

    The government has (finally) chosen - on Brexit, whatever the choice, it was bound to cheese off a substantial chunk of the electorate. But provided we exit the EU, and FoM does genuinely end (if Mrs May's planning to backtrack she's going about it rather unequivocally "foM will end" - not much wriggle room there) - then I suspect next March attention will turn to the post-Brexit plan. I suspect the electorate is reacting more to a squabbling and divided Tory party than the finer details of the government's White Paper.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    JohnO said:

    ydoethur said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    I believe the PB Tory term is “doing an Adonis”.

    Of course, HYUFD is the arch or ur PB Tory which begs the question, whither PB Toryism now?
    After nearly ten years in power, in a democratic system, it would be worrying if the government still commanded widespread support. For democracy to flourish we need options and we need government to change hands so those involved can refresh, reform and rethink. For the last 40 years we've had a problem in that there's never really been a time when both parties have been fit to hold power.

    That said, this level of shambles is also quite rare, fortunately.
    Though in fact - I suspect it just feels so much longer - this govt has been in office for just over 8 years. At the same period (1987) Mrs T had won her second landslide victory.
    Mrs Thatcher must be the luckiest prime minister in history. Not just for the normal political or military reasons ("her choice of enemies") but also because in the 1980s life just got better thanks to what we might call the white heat of the technological revolution if that had not already been misapplied to the 1960s.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited July 2018
    Foxy said:

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
    Enjoy the match! Who are you supporting?

    https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1018443035225387009
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Foxy said:

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
    Have you seen the Thai cave boys in hospital? Why are they always wearing facemasks?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,757

    Foxy said:

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
    Enjoy the match! Who are you supporting?

    https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1018443035225387009
    Fox jr supporting Croatia, France for me. I love Ngolo Kante and he will control that Croat midfield. Strange to watch a match as a neutral. A lot of the fun of football is the naked partisanship!
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    Surely the bigger point, as Mrs Thatcher observed - if a government is not behind in the polls before mid-term its not doing it right. To govern is to choose and inevitably some of those choices will be unpopular - better to get them out of the way sooner rather than later.

    The government has (finally) chosen - on Brexit, whatever the choice, it was bound to cheese off a substantial chunk of the electorate. But provided we exit the EU, and FoM does genuinely end (if Mrs May's planning to backtrack she's going about it rather unequivocally "foM will end" - not much wriggle room there) - then I suspect next March attention will turn to the post-Brexit plan. I suspect the electorate is reacting more to a squabbling and divided Tory party than the finer details of the government's White Paper.
    Think that’s absolutely right. At least I hope it is.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,630

    Re Croatia, given their recent comments (just after the game) accusing us of arrogance, I’m intrigued as to how anyone here is supporting them today. There’s also been controversy over the whole ‘coming home’ thing, from those outside this country. People let twenty two years ago by from Euro 96 onwards and decided to regard it as only a terrible thing this year. Really odd.

    Because otherwise, you have to support the idea of France having two stars on their shirt, versus one on ours.

    C'mon Croatia!!!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Someone was asking about the Delta Poll:

    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1018477966844710913
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,757

    Foxy said:

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
    Have you seen the Thai cave boys in hospital? Why are they always wearing facemasks?
    No idea really. Presumably some microbial risk as they seem quarantined.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Foxy said:

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
    Have you seen the Thai cave boys in hospital? Why are they always wearing facemasks?
    They had pneumonia - its common practice in the Far East to wear a facemark if you yourself are infectious (even for a common cold).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    Surely the bigger point, as Mrs Thatcher observed - if a government is not behind in the polls before mid-term its not doing it right. To govern is to choose and inevitably some of those choices will be unpopular - better to get them out of the way sooner rather than later.

    The government has (finally) chosen - on Brexit, whatever the choice, it was bound to cheese off a substantial chunk of the electorate. But provided we exit the EU, and FoM does genuinely end (if Mrs May's planning to backtrack she's going about it rather unequivocally "foM will end" - not much wriggle room there) - then I suspect next March attention will turn to the post-Brexit plan. I suspect the electorate is reacting more to a squabbling and divided Tory party than the finer details of the government's White Paper.
    Bit of both I suspect, given they were squabbling and looking incompetent before the decision and still leading, and undoubtedly a sizable chunk of the party don't like the choice. But it is not a calamity to be behind when you are in government, and it is not unsalvagable for the party even if May's plan goes through. The fantasy that all would be a ok if May chose no deal or hard brexit is just that, a fantasy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,307

    Foxy said:

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
    Enjoy the match! Who are you supporting?

    https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1018443035225387009
    I’m not quite convinced the entire Balkans are supporting Croatia, as the first map seems to suggest.
    And there are one or two Francophile territories (and indeed departments) around the globe.

    Not entirely sure about the Venusian life forms, though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,307
    ydoethur said:

    Good video.

    Shame the politicians seem to lack such clarity.

    [Being finickity, (I am available as a proofreader, incidentally, for anyone wanting such), dialogue should have 'ue' at the end unless you're being literally Yankee doodle, and the L was missing from 'complex'].

    Mr Dancer, shouldn't that be 'finicky?'
    I think he’s been corrupted by the American ‘persnickety’.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    Surely the bigger point, as Mrs Thatcher observed - if a government is not behind in the polls before mid-term its not doing it right. To govern is to choose and inevitably some of those choices will be unpopular - better to get them out of the way sooner rather than later.

    The government has (finally) chosen - on Brexit, whatever the choice, it was bound to cheese off a substantial chunk of the electorate. But provided we exit the EU, and FoM does genuinely end (if Mrs May's planning to backtrack she's going about it rather unequivocally "foM will end" - not much wriggle room there) - then I suspect next March attention will turn to the post-Brexit plan. I suspect the electorate is reacting more to a squabbling and divided Tory party than the finer details of the government's White Paper.
    The fantasy that all would be a ok if May chose no deal or hard brexit is just that, a fantasy.
    The consequences would trash the Tory reputation for a generation - Tories should be pragmatic and practical, a brake on the wilder enthusiasms and latest fads - when they get into 'ideology' it ends in tears.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    maaarsh said:


    Estimates of ERG membership vary between about 30 and 50. There's a difference between MPs (and people generally) who voted Leave because more money for the NHS seems like a good idea or bananas are the wrong shape, and those who feel very strongly about it -- strongly enough to let Brexit overrule doubts about Mogg's inexperience or Boris's unsoundness. Those who feel strongly enough to join the ERG, for instance. Even if you add in a few more for Gove and Davis, we are still looking at a final two BINO-ists or Remainers.

    Where are those numbers from? They had 62 signatories to a letter in February this year.
    There are various analyses from early in the year -- google Conservative ERG or some such -- but the numbers are generally based on searching MPs' expense claims for the £2,000 membership fee and on asking insiders.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/06/jacob-rees-mogg-and-the-shadowy-group-of-tories-shaping-brexit

    Wikipedia has sourced over 60 MPs making expense claims for ERG so think your figures are a little wonky at '30-50'. 62 signatories in May not including any current (or recent former) government MPs so they would appear to have a base of 60-70. 100 votes will get you 2nd place and through to the membership so would expect the right leaver candidate could manage that (though likely someone more like Penny rather than Jacob)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
    Enjoy the match! Who are you supporting?

    https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1018443035225387009
    I’m not quite convinced the entire Balkans are supporting Croatia, as the first map seems to suggest.
    And there are one or two Francophile territories (and indeed departments) around the globe.

    Not entirely sure about the Venusian life forms, though.

    I suspect quite a few in Scotland support France too - Andrew Neil, for one.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,003

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    Well, when May was for hard Brexit many of the high profile posters on here spent their entire time predicting her downfall and saying how terrible she was - now she has sold out they suddenly think she is wonderful.

    At least I can say that I didn't like May before she became PM, didn't like her when she was promising a real Brexit and don't like her now. In addition to being a lying duplicitous coward, she has always been politically talentless.

    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    May has never been able to make decisions. She is an administrator not an innovator. She listens to whoever shouts loudest and that, for many months, was the Brexiters.

    So have the Remainers upped their decibel level? No. It was the now unignorable deadline that drowned out every other voice and hence is what she is responding to.
    I think May is just a person who relies on someone else for opinions. When is was Nick and Fi, she was getting Hard Brexit input. When they went, she went for Robbins and now does whatever he says. I don't think she has any firm opinions of her own which is why she is easy to move, once you have her ear.
    Yes.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,743
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
    Enjoy the match! Who are you supporting?

    https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1018443035225387009
    I’m not quite convinced the entire Balkans are supporting Croatia, as the first map seems to suggest.
    And there are one or two Francophile territories (and indeed departments) around the globe.

    Not entirely sure about the Venusian life forms, though.
    Hmmm. Would our kind of football be beneath Venusians? Football 'on' Venus might be rather different: it's a bit too hot on the surface, and the pressure would crush and melt the ball - and I'm unsure FIFA have a rule for that.

    But due to that pressure, balls filled with 'air' might 'float' in the atmosphere, allowing for a three-dimensional football to be played. Unfortunately that might also make the offside rule even harder to explain ...

    However, it is likely that any lifeforms that would play such a game might fly (or 'swim' in gas) rather than walk, and therefore it might best be called wingball.

    Please don't tell me I'm overthinking this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,307

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
    Enjoy the match! Who are you supporting?

    https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1018443035225387009
    I’m not quite convinced the entire Balkans are supporting Croatia, as the first map seems to suggest.
    And there are one or two Francophile territories (and indeed departments) around the globe.

    Not entirely sure about the Venusian life forms, though.
    Hmmm. Would our kind of football be beneath Venusians? Football 'on' Venus might be rather different: it's a bit too hot on the surface, and the pressure would crush and melt the ball - and I'm unsure FIFA have a rule for that.

    But due to that pressure, balls filled with 'air' might 'float' in the atmosphere, allowing for a three-dimensional football to be played. Unfortunately that might also make the offside rule even harder to explain ...

    However, it is likely that any lifeforms that would play such a game might fly (or 'swim' in gas) rather than walk, and therefore it might best be called wingball.

    Please don't tell me I'm overthinking this.
    If they are only supporters, I’m not sure such considerations are particularly important.

    And consider they will have to enjoy an environment of superheated acid merely to survive, when thinking about whom they might be predisposed to support.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:


    Estimates of ERG membership vary between about 30 and 50. There's a difference between MPs (and people generally) who voted Leave because more money for the NHS seems like a good idea or bananas are the wrong shape, and those who feel very strongly about it -- strongly enough to let Brexit overrule doubts about Mogg's inexperience or Boris's unsoundness. Those who feel strongly enough to join the ERG, for instance. Even if you add in a few more for Gove and Davis, we are still looking at a final two BINO-ists or Remainers.

    Where are those numbers from? They had 62 signatories to a letter in February this year.
    There are various analyses from early in the year -- google Conservative ERG or some such -- but the numbers are generally based on searching MPs' expense claims for the £2,000 membership fee and on asking insiders.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/06/jacob-rees-mogg-and-the-shadowy-group-of-tories-shaping-brexit

    Wikipedia has sourced over 60 MPs making expense claims for ERG so think your figures are a little wonky at '30-50'. 62 signatories in May not including any current (or recent former) government MPs so they would appear to have a base of 60-70. 100 votes will get you 2nd place and through to the membership so would expect the right leaver candidate could manage that (though likely someone more like Penny rather than Jacob)
    It looks like some MPs have only claimed once or twice, so probably they left.

    In any case, not all ERG members are pro-Brexit. The BBC has:
    Of the Cabinet attendees who have claimed allowances for the ERG, six were pro-Leave while the other three, David Gauke, Sajid Javid and Brandon Lewis, campaigned for Remain. Of the 45 total MPs identified through claims, 33 were pro-Leave and 12 pro-Remain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    Well, when May was for hard Brexit many of the high profile posters on here spent their entire time predicting her downfall and saying how terrible she was - now she has sold out they suddenly think she is wonderful.

    At least I can say that I didn't like May before she became PM, didn't like her when she was promising a real Brexit and don't like her now. In addition to being a lying duplicitous coward, she has always been politically talentless.

    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    The problem for the Tories is the percentage of those soft Brexiteers and Remainers who were not voting Tory before and are praising May and will now switch from Labour or the LDs to the Tories can be counted on one hand.

    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
    Enjoy the match! Who are you supporting?

    https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1018443035225387009
    Fox jr supporting Croatia, France for me. I love Ngolo Kante and he will control that Croat midfield. Strange to watch a match as a neutral. A lot of the fun of football is the naked partisanship!
    Quebec will certainly be supporting France, as will Serbia, the French part of Belgium and maybe much of North Africa. So while most of the world will be Croatian for the day, that will not be all the world
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    It's just 'Brexit means Brexit' redux. This certainly isn't the Brexit I requested ;).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,743
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
    Enjoy the match! Who are you supporting?

    https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1018443035225387009
    I’m not quite convinced the entire Balkans are supporting Croatia, as the first map seems to suggest.
    And there are one or two Francophile territories (and indeed departments) around the globe.

    Not entirely sure about the Venusian life forms, though.
    Hmmm. Would our kind of football be beneath Venusians? Football 'on' Venus might be rather different: it's a bit too hot on the surface, and the pressure would crush and melt the ball - and I'm unsure FIFA have a rule for that.

    But due to that pressure, balls filled with 'air' might 'float' in the atmosphere, allowing for a three-dimensional football to be played. Unfortunately that might also make the offside rule even harder to explain ...

    However, it is likely that any lifeforms that would play such a game might fly (or 'swim' in gas) rather than walk, and therefore it might best be called wingball.

    Please don't tell me I'm overthinking this.
    If they are only supporters, I’m not sure such considerations are particularly important.

    And consider they will have to enjoy an environment of superheated acid merely to survive, when thinking about whom they might be predisposed to support.

    A good point. But it does pose a question: is there any major country where football (soccer) is very popular to watch, but there are very few players or teams?
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    Well, when May was for hard Brexit many of the high profile posters on here spent their entire time predicting her downfall and saying how terrible she was - now she has sold out they suddenly think she is wonderful.

    At least I can say that I didn't like May before she became PM, didn't like her when she was promising a real Brexit and don't like her now. In addition to being a lying duplicitous coward, she has always been politically talentless.

    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    The problem for the Tories is the percentage of those soft Brexiteers and Remainers who were not voting Tory before and are praising May and will now switch from Labour or the LDs to the Tories can be counted on one hand.
    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    A Labour government under Corbyn could not be worse than the present shambles under the anti-economy, anti-British, anti-society Conservatives. You Tories have thrown away your trump card.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    A strange reference to Hugh Gaitskell in the video given that he died in January 1963. In the intervening ten years before joining the EEC , many who had been Anti-Marketeers had become committed supporters of joining - including his widow Dora Gaitskell.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,743
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    Well, when May was for hard Brexit many of the high profile posters on here spent their entire time predicting her downfall and saying how terrible she was - now she has sold out they suddenly think she is wonderful.

    At least I can say that I didn't like May before she became PM, didn't like her when she was promising a real Brexit and don't like her now. In addition to being a lying duplicitous coward, she has always been politically talentless.

    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    The problem for the Tories is the percentage of those soft Brexiteers and Remainers who were not voting Tory before and are praising May and will now switch from Labour or the LDs to the Tories can be counted on one hand.

    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    Any 'Conservative' who moves over to be a member of, or supporter of, UKIP is not just buying into whatever UKIP's current Brexit policy is. They're also buying into the whole raft of other policies that make UKIP an anathema to many.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    Well, when May was for hard Brexit many of the high profile posters on here spent their entire time predicting her downfall and saying how terrible she was - now she has sold out they suddenly think she is wonderful.

    At least I can say that I didn't like May before she became PM, didn't like her when she was promising a real Brexit and don't like her now. In addition to being a lying duplicitous coward, she has always been politically talentless.

    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    The problem for the Tories is the percentage of those soft Brexiteers and Remainers who were not voting Tory before and are praising May and will now switch from Labour or the LDs to the Tories can be counted on one hand.

    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    Any 'Conservative' who moves over to be a member of, or supporter of, UKIP is not just buying into whatever UKIP's current Brexit policy is. They're also buying into the whole raft of other policies that make UKIP an anathema to many.
    Agreed but some will do it to protest and/or because they think it will make no difference in their seat (which would be true for many).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,417
    @rcs1000

    excellent video Robert, looking forward to the next installment
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    The problem for the Tories is the percentage of those soft Brexiteers and Remainers who were not voting Tory before and are praising May and will now switch from Labour or the LDs to the Tories can be counted on one hand.

    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    Any 'Conservative' who moves over to be a member of, or supporter of, UKIP is not just buying into whatever UKIP's current Brexit policy is. They're also buying into the whole raft of other policies that make UKIP an anathema to many.
    I'd argue that it's just symbolic. UKIP are a spent force. But who else to register one's support for if trying to make a point? As others have said, the Tories aren't particularly attractive electorally, for obvious reasons. I don't find the 'Oooo Jeremy Corbyn = Venezuela' argument particularly compelling in terms of retaining my vote.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,757

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
    Enjoy the match! Who are you supporting?

    https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1018443035225387009
    I’m not quite convinced the entire Balkans are supporting Croatia, as the first map seems to suggest.
    And there are one or two Francophile territories (and indeed departments) around the globe.

    Not entirely sure about the Venusian life forms, though.
    Hmmm. Would our kind of football be beneath Venusians? Football 'on' Venus might be rather different: it's a bit too hot on the surface, and the pressure would crush and melt the ball - and I'm unsure FIFA have a rule for that.

    But due to that pressure, balls filled with 'air' might 'float' in the atmosphere, allowing for a three-dimensional football to be played. Unfortunately that might also make the offside rule even harder to explain ...

    However, it is likely that any lifeforms that would play such a game might fly (or 'swim' in gas) rather than walk, and therefore it might best be called wingball.

    Please don't tell me I'm overthinking this.
    If they are only supporters, I’m not sure such considerations are particularly important.

    And consider they will have to enjoy an environment of superheated acid merely to survive, when thinking about whom they might be predisposed to support.

    A good point. But it does pose a question: is there any major country where football (soccer) is very popular to watch, but there are very few players or teams?
    SE Asia?

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
    Enjoy the match! Who are you supporting?

    https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1018443035225387009
    I’m not quite convinced the entire Balkans are supporting Croatia, as the first map seems to suggest.
    And there are one or two Francophile territories (and indeed departments) around the globe.

    Not entirely sure about the Venusian life forms, though.
    Hmmm. Would our kind of football be beneath Venusians? Football 'on' Venus might be rather different: it's a bit too hot on the surface, and the pressure would crush and melt the ball - and I'm unsure FIFA have a rule for that.

    But due to that pressure, balls filled with 'air' might 'float' in the atmosphere, allowing for a three-dimensional football to be played. Unfortunately that might also make the offside rule even harder to explain ...

    However, it is likely that any lifeforms that would play such a game might fly (or 'swim' in gas) rather than walk, and therefore it might best be called wingball.

    Please don't tell me I'm overthinking this.
    If they are only supporters, I’m not sure such considerations are particularly important.

    And consider they will have to enjoy an environment of superheated acid merely to survive, when thinking about whom they might be predisposed to support.

    A good point. But it does pose a question: is there any major country where football (soccer) is very popular to watch, but there are very few players or teams?
    Jumpers for goalposts or Premier League standard? Everywhere has the first. There is an article on 538 about the uneven distribution of the elite game.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/europe-and-south-america-are-growing-in-soccer-power-that-wasnt-supposed-to-happen/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    Well, when May was for hard Brexit many of the high profile posters on here spent their entire time predicting her downfall and saying how terrible she was - now she has sold out they suddenly think she is wonderful.

    At least I can say that I didn't like May before she became PM, didn't like her when she was promising a real Brexit and don't like her now. In addition to being a lying duplicitous coward, she has always been politically talentless.

    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    The problem for the Tories is the percentage of those soft Brexiteers and Remainers who were not voting Tory before and are praising May and will now switch from Labour or the LDs to the Tories can be counted on one hand.
    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    A Labour government under Corbyn could not be worse than the present shambles under the anti-economy, anti-British, anti-society Conservatives. You Tories have thrown away your trump card.
    The Trump card for the Tories to win a 4th term against the odds was getting Brexiteers behind them. Fear of Corbyn alone May not be enough if the Right splits
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,654

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    Well, when May was for hard Brexit many of the high profile posters on here spent their entire time predicting her downfall and saying how terrible she was - now she has sold out they suddenly think she is wonderful.

    At least I can say that I didn't like May before she became PM, didn't like her when she was promising a real Brexit and don't like her now. In addition to being a lying duplicitous coward, she has always been politically talentless.

    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    The problem for the Tories is the percentage of those soft Brexiteers and Remainers who were not voting Tory before and are praising May and will now switch from Labour or the LDs to the Tories can be counted on one hand.

    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    Any 'Conservative' who moves over to be a member of, or supporter of, UKIP is not just buying into whatever UKIP's current Brexit policy is. They're also buying into the whole raft of other policies that make UKIP an anathema to many.

    It's hard to see where Rees Mogg and the other loons diverge with Farage.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Damn. They've started the tennis earlier than I expected and it is already a foregone conclusion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    edited July 2018
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    Well, when May was for hard Brexit many of the high profile posters on here spent their entire time predicting her downfall and saying how terrible she was - now she has sold out they suddenly think she is wonderful.

    At least I can say that I didn't like May before she became PM, didn't like her when she was promising a real Brexit and don't like her now. In addition to being a lying duplicitous coward, she has always been politically talentless.

    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    The problem for the Tories is the percentage of those soft Brexiteers and Remainers who were not voting Tory before and are praising May and will now switch from Labour or the LDs to the Tories can be counted on one hand.
    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    A Labour government under Corbyn could not be worse than the present shambles under the anti-economy, anti-British, anti-society Conservatives. You Tories have thrown away your trump card.
    The trump card for the Tories to win a 4th term against the odds was getting Brexiteers behind them. Fear of Corbyn alone may not be enough if the Right splits.

    Of course if Corbyn does beat a soft Brexit Tory leader it is almost certain a hard Brexiteer will take over as Tory Leader of the Opposition
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    The problem for the Tories is the percentage of those soft Brexiteers and Remainers who were not voting Tory before and are praising May and will now switch from Labour or the LDs to the Tories can be counted on one hand.

    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    Any 'Conservative' who moves over to be a member of, or supporter of, UKIP is not just buying into whatever UKIP's current Brexit policy is. They're also buying into the whole raft of other policies that make UKIP an anathema to many.
    I'd argue that it's just symbolic. UKIP are a spent force. But who else to register one's support for if trying to make a point? As others have said, the Tories aren't particularly attractive electorally, for obvious reasons. I don't find the 'Oooo Jeremy Corbyn = Venezuela' argument particularly compelling in terms of retaining my vote.
    In 1997 2 million 1992 Tories stayed at home and 900 000 voted for the Referendum Party or UKIP, that was more than the 2 million 1992 Tories who switched to Blair
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    Well, when May was for hard Brexit many of the high profile posters on here spent their entire time predicting her downfall and saying how terrible she was - now she has sold out they suddenly think she is wonderful.

    At least I can say that I didn't like May before she became PM, didn't like her when she was promising a real Brexit and don't like her now. In addition to being a lying duplicitous coward, she has always been politically talentless.

    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    The problem for the Tories is the percentage of those soft Brexiteers and Remainers who were not voting Tory before and are praising May and will now switch from Labour or the LDs to the Tories can be counted on one hand.

    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    Any 'Conservative' who moves over to be a member of, or supporter of, UKIP is not just buying into whatever UKIP's current Brexit policy is. They're also buying into the whole raft of other policies that make UKIP an anathema to many.
    Nonsense - UKIP aren't winning any seats - it's a pure protest vote, and if there were an election today it would be very clear what people were trying to say with it. But we're a long way from an election, and the Tories can't be stupid enough to let May front the next one.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,743
    As I was walking to the shop in this darndedly unBritish heat, I pondered an interesting (and perhaps ridiculous) question:

    Might Boris jump ship to UKIP?

    Yes, it seems ridiculous. But UKIP are currently rudderless, and Farage is very much damaged goods. Boris stands little chance (IMO) of becoming Conservative leader (*), and has an ego the size of a mountain. He's also a proven winner, has held high office, and knows lots of useful people.

    Could he switch over to UKIP, become its leader, and take it on as a more right-wing Conservative party, professionally run (which they were not before) ? He could mould the party into something quite interesting electorally.

    (*) get your bets on now ...
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.

    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    Any 'Conservative' who moves over to be a member of, or supporter of, UKIP is not just buying into whatever UKIP's current Brexit policy is. They're also buying into the whole raft of other policies that make UKIP an anathema to many.
    I'd argue that it's just symbolic. UKIP are a spent force. But who else to register one's support for if trying to make a point? As others have said, the Tories aren't particularly attractive electorally, for obvious reasons. I don't find the 'Oooo Jeremy Corbyn = Venezuela' argument particularly compelling in terms of retaining my vote.
    In 1997 2 million 1992 Tories stayed at home and 900 000 voted for the Referendum Party or UKIP, that was more than the 2 million 1992 Tories who switched to Blair
    It's clear that Tory fortunes depend on them getting their base out in GE 2022(?). That's unlikely to happen with May at the helm.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.

    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    Any 'Conservative' who moves over to be a member of, or supporter of, UKIP is not just buying into whatever UKIP's current Brexit policy is. They're also buying into the whole raft of other policies that make UKIP an anathema to many.
    I'd argue that it's just symbolic. UKIP are a spent force. But who else to register one's support for if trying to make a point? As others have said, the Tories aren't particularly attractive electorally, for obvious reasons. I don't find the 'Oooo Jeremy Corbyn = Venezuela' argument particularly compelling in terms of retaining my vote.
    In 1997 2 million 1992 Tories stayed at home and 900 000 voted for the Referendum Party or UKIP, that was more than the 2 million 1992 Tories who switched to Blair
    It's clear that Tory fortunes depend on them getting their base out in GE 2022(?). That's unlikely to happen with May at the helm.
    I don't think very many people expect her to be. The question is about when, and in what circumstances she leaves the top position. Now, to precipitate a change in governmental direction, or later (say March 2019) to mark the next phase of the Brexit process and a less radical change in direction. Either way, the work to get the base back on board will take quite a while.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    As I was walking to the shop in this darndedly unBritish heat, I pondered an interesting (and perhaps ridiculous) question:

    Might Boris jump ship to UKIP?

    Yes, it seems ridiculous. But UKIP are currently rudderless, and Farage is very much damaged goods. Boris stands little chance (IMO) of becoming Conservative leader (*), and has an ego the size of a mountain. He's also a proven winner, has held high office, and knows lots of useful people.

    Could he switch over to UKIP, become its leader, and take it on as a more right-wing Conservative party, professionally run (which they were not before) ? He could mould the party into something quite interesting electorally.

    (*) get your bets on now ...

    Like all the Lab non-corbynites very unhappy with the direction of things, he wouldn't want to lose the brand name of Tory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    As I was walking to the shop in this darndedly unBritish heat, I pondered an interesting (and perhaps ridiculous) question:

    Might Boris jump ship to UKIP?

    Yes, it seems ridiculous. But UKIP are currently rudderless, and Farage is very much damaged goods. Boris stands little chance (IMO) of becoming Conservative leader (*), and has an ego the size of a mountain. He's also a proven winner, has held high office, and knows lots of useful people.

    Could he switch over to UKIP, become its leader, and take it on as a more right-wing Conservative party, professionally run (which they were not before) ? He could mould the party into something quite interesting electorally.

    (*) get your bets on now ...

    Unlikely, unless we get a Canada 1993 style situation and UKIP overtakes the Tories as the Reform Party overtook the Progressive Conservatives.

    As a result though the Liberals were in power for 13 years until the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform Party's successor the Canadian Alliance merged to form the Conservative Party of Canada which won the 2006 Canadian general election under Stephen Harper
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Djokovic clearly wants to finish this game before the WC final starts.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    As I was walking to the shop in this darndedly unBritish heat, I pondered an interesting (and perhaps ridiculous) question:

    Might Boris jump ship to UKIP?

    Yes, it seems ridiculous. But UKIP are currently rudderless, and Farage is very much damaged goods. Boris stands little chance (IMO) of becoming Conservative leader (*), and has an ego the size of a mountain. He's also a proven winner, has held high office, and knows lots of useful people.

    Could he switch over to UKIP, become its leader, and take it on as a more right-wing Conservative party, professionally run (which they were not before) ? He could mould the party into something quite interesting electorally.

    (*) get your bets on now ...

    It would be interesting. If I were him I'd do it on a 'rejoin the Tories/merge with them when they come to their senses' narrative. Keep the door open to returning. Ken Livingstone managed to get back into Labour after standing against them after all.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,743
    kle4 said:

    As I was walking to the shop in this darndedly unBritish heat, I pondered an interesting (and perhaps ridiculous) question:

    Might Boris jump ship to UKIP?

    Yes, it seems ridiculous. But UKIP are currently rudderless, and Farage is very much damaged goods. Boris stands little chance (IMO) of becoming Conservative leader (*), and has an ego the size of a mountain. He's also a proven winner, has held high office, and knows lots of useful people.

    Could he switch over to UKIP, become its leader, and take it on as a more right-wing Conservative party, professionally run (which they were not before) ? He could mould the party into something quite interesting electorally.

    (*) get your bets on now ...

    Like all the Lab non-corbynites very unhappy with the direction of things, he wouldn't want to lose the brand name of Tory.
    That will be a big reason for him not to do it. On the other hand, he is a big fan of Churchill, who flitted between the Conservatives and Liberals. His time as Foreign Secretary was hardly filled with glory, and the chances of him getting another high office within the Conservatives are limited. If he can't be PM, what else is there for him to fill his ego with? What else will get his face on the front page and TV screens?

    Taking over a party and moulding it might well appeal to him: the chance too make history like his hero. It'll also be a new challenge for someone who has rather admirably done many different things (if not always successfully).

    I'm not saying this will happen; just that it might appeal to him.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Ah, so I won’t be the only PBer cheering on France today I see foxy is as well.
    Also, wonder what Rita Panahai (an Australian woman) has against the the French. Has there been any massive Aussie v French rivarly recently?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.

    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    Any 'Conservative' who moves over to be a member of, or supporter of, UKIP is not just buying into whatever UKIP's current Brexit policy is. They're also buying into the whole raft of other policies that make UKIP an anathema to many.
    I'd argue that it's just symbolic. UKIP are a spent force. But who else to register one's support for if trying to make a point? As others have said, the Tories aren't particularly attractive electorally, for obvious reasons. I don't find the 'Oooo Jeremy Corbyn = Venezuela' argument particularly compelling in terms of retaining my vote.
    In 1997 2 million 1992 Tories stayed at home and 900 000 voted for the Referendum Party or UKIP, that was more than the 2 million 1992 Tories who switched to Blair
    It's clear that Tory fortunes depend on them getting their base out in GE 2022(?). That's unlikely to happen with May at the helm.
    Yes because we know Corbyn will get his base out
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,903

    Djokovic clearly wants to finish this game before the WC final starts.

    Anderson, I think you mean :)

    But I think all those 5-set matches this week must have drained him physically and mentally.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,903

    Ah, so I won’t be the only PBer cheering on France today I see foxy is as well.
    Also, wonder what Rita Panahai (an Australian woman) has against the the French. Has there been any massive Aussie v French rivarly recently?

    Rita Panahai sounds like an Indian name to me :)

    France and Britain had serious colonial rivalry in southern and eastern India up until the 1790s.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044
    Slightly unnerving for me to support a team who play in red and white, but I shall be cheering for Croatia this afternoon.

    Most of all I want to see quality, exciting football. 4-3 after extra time would be nice.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,903
    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    The problem for the Tories is the percentage of those soft Brexiteers and Remainers who were not voting Tory before and are praising May and will now switch from Labour or the LDs to the Tories can be counted on one hand.

    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    Any 'Conservative' who moves over to be a member of, or supporter of, UKIP is not just buying into whatever UKIP's current Brexit policy is. They're also buying into the whole raft of other policies that make UKIP an anathema to many.
    I'd argue that it's just symbolic. UKIP are a spent force. But who else to register one's support for if trying to make a point? As others have said, the Tories aren't particularly attractive electorally, for obvious reasons. I don't find the 'Oooo Jeremy Corbyn = Venezuela' argument particularly compelling in terms of retaining my vote.
    In 1997 2 million 1992 Tories stayed at home and 900 000 voted for the Referendum Party or UKIP, that was more than the 2 million 1992 Tories who switched to Blair
    According to HYUFD logic, surely people who "switched to Blair" can't be REAL Tories??
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,903
    Dilemma: should I continue watching tennis now that Anderson has finally found his game, or so I change over to the footy?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,143

    Might Boris jump ship to UKIP?

    Might? Yes.
    Will? No.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044

    Dilemma: should I continue watching tennis now that Anderson has finally found his game, or so I change over to the footy?

    Tennis is so stop-start you can watch 90% of the footy between points.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    The problem for the Tories is the percentage of those soft Brexiteers and Remainers who were not voting Tory before and are praising May and will now switch from Labour or the LDs to the Tories can be counted on one hand.

    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    Any 'Conservative' who moves over to be a member of, or supporter of, UKIP is not just buying into whatever UKIP's current Brexit policy is. They're also buying into the whole raft of other policies that make UKIP an anathema to many.
    I'd argue that it's just symbolic. UKIP are a spent force. But who else to register one's support for if trying to make a point? As others have said, the Tories aren't particularly attractive electorally, for obvious reasons. I don't find the 'Oooo Jeremy Corbyn = Venezuela' argument particularly compelling in terms of retaining my vote.
    In 1997 2 million 1992 Tories stayed at home and 900 000 voted for the Referendum Party or UKIP, that was more than the 2 million 1992 Tories who switched to Blair
    According to HYUFD logic, surely people who "switched to Blair" can't be REAL Tories??
    Tory leaning swing voters maybe but not Tory loyalists no
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left permanently behind him as Corbyn has by squeezing the Greens, LDs, left-wing SNP and left-wing UKIP voters and getting out non voters. Cameron also squeezed the UKIP vote with his EU referendum promise they now expect their LEAVE vote to be proper delivered.
    Plus a lot of that Labour lead was down to the pasty tax etc easily reversed. As I said Corbyn becomes PM unless the recent Tory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    The problem for the Tories is the percentage of those soft Brexiteers and Remainers who were not voting Tory before and are praising May and will now switch from Labour or the LDs to the Tories can be counted on one hand.

    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    In 1997 2 million 1992 Tories stayed at home and 900 000 voted for the Referendum Party or UKIP, that was more than the 2 million 1992 Tories who switched to Blair
    According to HYUFD logic, surely people who "switched to Blair" can't be REAL Tories??
    I suppose he could argue that the act of switching implied that they had ceased to be real Tories. As someone who stopped voting Labour on a regular basis post-1996 , I have some sympathy for his views here - though in my case I refused to follow the Blairite drift to the centre-Right and would argue that New Labour had ceased to be Real Labour!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    edited July 2018
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left ory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    The problem for the Tories is the percentage of those soft Brexiteers and Remainers who were not voting Tory before and are praising May and will now switch from Labour or the LDs to the Tories can be counted on one hand.

    However the percentage of Tories who were praising May before and have now switched to UKIP in fury at the Chequers Deal is more than enough to make Corbyn PM
    In 1997 2 million 1992 Tories stayed at home and 900 000 voted for the Referendum Party or UKIP, that was more than the 2 million 1992 Tories who switched to Blair
    According to HYUFD logic, surely people who "switched to Blair" can't be REAL Tories??
    I suppose he could argue that the act of switching implied that they had ceased to be real Tories. As someone who stopped voting Labour on a regular basis post-1996 , I have some sympathy for his views here - though in my case I refused to follow the Blairite drift to the centre-Right and would argue that New Labour had ceased to be Real Labour!
    Many left-wing Labour voters switched to the LDs, Greens or Respect or stayed home under Blair in 2005 or Brown in 2010 as a number of rightwing Tories switched to UKIP in 2015 or stayed home under Cameron and have done so again after the Chequers Deal
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,888
    Go France!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,888
    viewcode said:

    Might Boris jump ship to UKIP?

    Might? Yes.
    Will? No.

    It would be his best chance of becoming a party leader?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,143
    edited July 2018
    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Might Boris jump ship to UKIP?

    Might? Yes.
    Will? No.

    It would be his best chance of becoming a party leader?
    It would require the ability to be decisive and pivot quickly to meet new circumstances. Boris has many advantages (well, some) but as his life history (and "All Out War", which I have now finished reading - excellent, btw) shows, he is frequently indecisive and prone to avoid responsibility. He's not the type.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Handy reminder from OGH (for the hysterics)

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1018448627042308102

    That 38% for the Tories then still better than the 36% for the Tories today
    Going a little further back - May 2012, Labour's average lead was 12% and their highest 14% - when Con were on 31......
    In May 2012 Ed Miliband had not united the left ory to UKIP movement reverses
    It wasn't so long ago that you thought the sun shone out of Theresa May's backside. You make Boris look like a paragon of consistency.
    When events change....what do you do?
    I have always had a soft spot for Boris and I think he still has a chance - much will depend on the quality of his resignation speech and the role he takes thereafter.
    According to HYUFD logic, surely people who "switched to Blair" can't be REAL Tories??
    r!
    Many left-wing Labour voters switched to the LDs, Greens or Respect or stayed home under Blair in 2005 or Brown in 2010 as a number of rightwing Tories switched to UKIP in 2015 or stayed home under Cameron and have done so again after the Chequers Deal
    Indeed so. When UKIP was last enjoying momentum , it managed to pull in support from both Left and Right - and for many voters it had replaced the NOTA option formerly provided by the LibDems but which had been lost following entry into the Coalition.It was a mistake to assume that UKIP support was overwhelmingly tied to the EU issue. Their subsequent behaviour has seriously tarnished the party image and makes it very unlikely - in my view - that it will approach its former peak levels of support.I also suspect that this time any recovery will be at the expense of the Right - and that Labour will be much less adversely affected than a few years ago. Though we shall see!
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Foxy said:

    Mr. Owls, some of us had a pre-tournament bet on Croatia at 36 :D

    Report from Moscow.

    Humid and muggy 27 degrees, slight chance of thunderstorms. Lots of visible Croatian fans and most neutrals backing them in bars around Red Square. All very good natured, and light police presence. Few France fans, but was the same in St Petersburg for the SF. I reckon France will win.

    Russia is a great place, I really like it. Shops full of European products, people helpful, good food and loads to see.

    Just chilling in the AC before the match.
    You like Leicester though so your judgement is hardly that of Solomon. I’ve been there a reasonable number of times and my conclusion is that Moscow feels like a thug paradise police state. Yes, there are some fine people but walk past the Nemtsov memorial (unless that’s been cleansed) and you may reach a different conclusion.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,143
    Wey-hey, check this thing out:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-hq-used-facebook-ads-to-deceive-jeremy-corbyn-during-election-campaign-grlx75c27

    [TL:DR: Labour campaign staff paid for microads on Facebook so Jeremy Corbyn would think the campaign was doing x,y&z when actually it was doing a,b&c]
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,903
    Djokovic wins his first Slam in over two years.

    Now for the footy :)
This discussion has been closed.