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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three Lions: just maybe

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  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    HYUFD said:

    On the basis it would be accepted by the EU, if the EU rejects it and demands even more concessions that is a totally different ball game
    The UK is still very much in the cherry picking state. The EU have all along shown their red lines.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,393
    I'm actually at my brother and sister-in-law's new place - they haven't got a TV yet! So I'm resorting to, ah, "watching" the match on PB and the BBC live website ticker :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,284
    surby said:

    The UK is still very much in the cherry picking state. The EU have all along shown their red lines.
    Negotiation is all about cherry picking. If it is as clear as you say the EU will reject it next week and we can focus on no deal, as I do not see how the Cabinet stays together in that scenario. If it is less clear the EU will hopefully say there is something to work with here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    surby said:

    The UK is still very much in the cherry picking state. The EU have all along shown their red lines.
    May has gone as far as her red lines will allow her, she cannot go any further without the Tory Party overthrowing her and replacing her with a harder line Brexiteer
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    England score!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,884
    edited July 2018
    surby said:

    The UK is still very much in the cherry picking state. The EU have all along shown their red lines.
    That is if one accepts the EU framing of the debate. It would be more accurate to say that the UK is taking an age to even decide what it wants.

    Good goal !
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,393
    HYUFD said:

    England score!!

    Ah so that's why the neighbours are cheering :)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307
    Beard going gray, whilst waiting for England to score from open play.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502
    If this tournament has done one thing, it has proved once and for all that man marking at set pieces does not work.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    edited July 2018

    Ah so that's why the neighbours are cheering :)
    Are you sure they are not pleased by your latest station conquest?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Ah so that's why the neighbours are cheering :)
    Go and find a pub!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,393
    edited July 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Are you are they are not pleased by your latest station conquest?
    Saltburn, 2nd July :)

    I did say just now I'm at my brother and sister-in-law's new place - they haven't got a TV yet, you see!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    I'm actually at my brother and sister-in-law's new place - they haven't got a TV yet! So I'm resorting to, ah, "watching" the match on PB and the BBC live website ticker :lol:

    Go to the news site and press the button to watch it live over the iplayer interwebs.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Hmm.

    '15 mins
    Post update

    Sweden 0-0 England

    As dull a 15 minutes as you will have seen at the World Cup.'
    No yellow cards though.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,393
    edited July 2018

    Go to the news site and press the button to watch it live over the iplayer interwebs.
    Yeah I know but don't you need a TV licence?
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Mr Felix will no doubt be disappointed. It still looks very much like a Conservative versus Conservative dogfight.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited July 2018
    HYUFD said:

    May has gone as far as her red lines will allow her, she cannot go any further without the Tory Party overthrowing her and replacing her with a harder line Brexiteer
    Overthrowing May would imply a commitment to NO DEAL - that would be the only other Brexit available.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    edited July 2018

    Saltburn, 2nd July :)

    I did say just now I'm at my brother and sister-in-law's new place - they haven't got a TV yet, you see!
    Well you get the score pretty instantly on pb anyway even if your neighbours are out and your relatives have no tv
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300


    Yeah I know but don't you need a TV licence?
    No, the householder does. Ask them in an hour or so.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1015589171082219520
    On the basis of not letting the best be the enemy of the good. Number one priority is to get out of the EU - once that's done exit conditions can be revisited. He's just trying to avoid Hotel California.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,395
    Did anyone have Maguire to score first?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited July 2018

    Did anyone have Maguire to score first?

    I hope no-one had Raheem Sterling to score second.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    AndyJS said:

    No yellow cards though.

    Complete contrast with the Columbia game......
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Not to be a killjoy but England have conceded a goal in every match of this tournament so far...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    HYUFD said:

    9% of Dutch exports and 15% of Irish exports and 8% of Danish exports go to the UK too
    Exactly. Not that much.

    vs nearly 50% for us.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    PeterC said:

    Overthrowing May would imply a commitment to NO DEAL - that would be the only other Brexit available.
    Correct. If the EU reject this offer No Deal is almost inevitable
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2018


    Complete contrast with the Columbia game......
    A bit boring (until 30 mins) but sportsmanlike conduct.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,082

    Not to be a killjoy but England have conceded a goal in every match of this tournament so far...

    This Sweden team is very very modest though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    edited July 2018
    TOPPING said:

    Exactly. Not that much.

    vs nearly 50% for us.
    Plus they will also have to face Trump's tariffs on EU imports with the USA the only other non EU export destination other than post Brexit UK in most EU nations top 5.

    As you also correctly confirm most UK exports now go outside the EU
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    This Sweden team is very very modest though.
    I agree. But chicken-counting is not merited by England's defensive track record.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Have there been any matches so far with no yellow/red cards?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    I agree. But chicken-counting is not merited by England's defensive track record.
    Agreed. The first time we play a decent team who can tear open our defence we'll be on the plane home -- but that will not be until the final.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,462
    HYUFD said:

    Plus they will also have to face Trump's tariffs on EU imports with the USA the only other non EU export destination other than post Brexit UK in most EU nations top 5.

    As you also correctly confirm most UK exports now go outside the EU

    Your premise is just absurd. The only quick route to getting into a position where we can levy tariffs on trade with the rest of Europe is via 'No Deal' and the UK would simply descend into chaos if that happened.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    HYUFD said:

    Correct. If the EU reject this offer No Deal is almost inevitable
    HYUFD said:

    Correct. If the EU reject this offer No Deal is almost inevitable
    There would be a huge political crisis in such circumstances, whether May is toppled or not. The wider debate would range around Norway, No Deal and Remain.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    HYUFD said:

    Plus they will also have to face Trump's tariffs on EU imports with the USA the only other non EU export destination other than the UK in most EU nations top 5.

    As you also correctly confirm most UK exports now go outside the EU
    LOL. 6-15% for each EU country and nearly 50% for us.

    But yes by all means keep telling us how "The EU" will find it difficult, etc.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,082

    Agreed. The first time we play a decent team who can tear open our defence we'll be on the plane home -- but that will not be until the final.
    Belgium-France should be a belter, the two best teams of the tournament. I think Mbappe might skin Kompany alive though, whereas Konte can contain De Bruyne. So maybe France.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,284
    TOPPING said:

    LOL. 6-15% for each EU country and nearly 50% for us.

    But yes by all means keep telling us how "The EU" will find it difficult, etc.
    Oh for heaven's sake - that both sides want a deal is not in dispute, because all sides take a hit, the question is are they prepared to take a hit just because we get hit even harder than them? Yes appears to be the answer, but it is still them taking a hit.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    HYUFD said:

    Correct. If the EU reject this offer No Deal is almost inevitable
    It is the start of the negotiation not the end. There will probably be movement on both sides from here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    edited July 2018
    TOPPING said:

    LOL. 6-15% for each EU country and nearly 50% for us.

    But yes by all means keep telling us how "The EU" will find it difficult, etc.
    Almost 20% of EU exports go to the UK and Trump's USA combined and both would impose tariffs on EU imports in the event of No Deal.

    I don't want no deal, I voted Remain and think May has offered the EU a fair deal but I am afraid if the EU reject this offer they clearly have no interest in any deal with us, they just want to try and punish us and even I would say we would then have to prepare for no deal.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    Your premise is just absurd. The only quick route to getting into a position where we can levy tariffs on trade with the rest of Europe is via 'No Deal' and the UK would simply descend into chaos if that happened.
    Chicken Licken is in the building.....
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TOPPING said:

    LOL. 6-15% for each EU country and nearly 50% for us.

    But yes by all means keep telling us how "The EU" will find it difficult, etc.
    There would be immense problems for Ireland in this situation.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,393
    Job half done
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,462

    Chicken Licken is in the building.....
    #ChlorineFree
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    kle4 said:

    Oh for heaven's sake - that both sides want a deal is not in dispute, because all sides take a hit, the question is are they prepared to take a hit just because we get hit even harder than them? Yes appears to be the answer, but it is still them taking a hit.
    Correct
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113
    Thanks for a brilliant threader, David.

    This song is rather lovely; in some ways I prefer World in Motion, but this has a very clever 'amateur' feel to it that allows anyone - even someone uninterested in football like me - to sing it. It's just brilliant.

    It also has some rather pleasant memories from that summer.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    #ChlorineFree
    For now.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532

    Your premise is just absurd. The only quick route to getting into a position where we can levy tariffs on trade with the rest of Europe is via 'No Deal' and the UK would simply descend into chaos if that happened.
    No 17 million voted Leave and if the EU refuse to respect their vote in any way I believe the electorate would accept no deal for the time being in return for the immigration controls and sovereignty they were promised and look to expand the majority of UK exports which already go beyond the EU
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    HYUFD said:

    Almost 20% of EU exports go to the UK and Trump's USA combined and both would impose tariffs on EU imports in the event of No Deal.

    I don't want no deal, I voted Remain and think May has offered the EU a fair deal but I am afraid if the EU reject this offer they clearly have no interest in any deal with us, they just want to try and punish us and even I would say we would then have to prepare for no deal.

    To prepare for NO DEAL with so little time involves a tremendous amount of work.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    PeterC said:

    There would be a huge political crisis in such circumstances, whether May is toppled or not. The wider debate would range around Norway, No Deal and Remain.
    It would end up being No Deal given the Tory and DUP majority plus a few Labour Leave MPs would back No Deal too if the EU reject this offer
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    felix said:

    It is the start of the negotiation not the end. There will probably be movement on both sides from here.
    I hope you are right and I expect the offer will at least allow confirmation of the transition period but that is not certain
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502
    Henderson has been excellent in this game.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    edited July 2018
    PeterC said:

    To prepare for NO DEAL with so little time involves a tremendous amount of work.
    We would have almost a year if the EU rejects it next week to prepare and we could start initial FTA talks with Trump's USA for a post Brexit trade deal with the US freeing us from US tariffs on EU imports
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    HYUFD said:

    It would end up being No Deal given the Tory and DUP majority plus a few Labour Leave MPs would back No Deal too if the EU reject this offer
    The EU will definitely reject this offer [ in totality ]. The real question is whether they would accept this as a basis for negotiations.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    2 0 England. It's coming home!! (Maybe)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113
    HYUFD said:

    2 0 England. It's coming home!! (Maybe)

    I'm not watching the game, but I knew we'd scored as cheers wafted in through open windows from a couple of houses in our street. :)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Might it be coming home...?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    surby said:

    The EU will definitely reject this offer [ in totality ]. The real question is whether they would accept this as a basis for negotiations.
    If they reject this offer in totality there is nothing further really to negotiate without abandoning almost all the Leave campaign promises so we start preparing for No Deal
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,913
    Genius Pickford
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,393
    Love's got the world in motion
    And I know what we can do
    Love's got the world in motion
    And I can't believe it's true
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502

    Genius Pickford

    20-1 for SPOTY.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532

    I'm not watching the game, but I knew we'd scored as cheers wafted in through open windows from a couple of houses in our street. :)
    Cheer from upstairs too
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502
    Joshua out to 7-1 for SPOTY. At what point does he become value because Kane, Pickford and possibly others are nominated?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,145
    Pulpstar said:

    This Sweden team is very very modest though.
    Very very modest World Cup quarter finalists.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    HYUFD said:

    No 17 million voted Leave and if the EU refuse to respect their vote in any way I believe the electorate would accept no deal for the time being in return for the immigration controls and sovereignty they were promised and look to expand the majority of UK exports which already go beyond the EU
    And the £40 billion.....
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    I do hope we've got the Jordan Pickford of close protection officers guarding Jordan Pickford
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Trump's North Korea deal unravelling....

    North Korea has branded the US attitude at the latest talks over its nuclear programme "regrettable".
    The statement, by an unnamed foreign ministry official, contradicted the version of events given by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo just hours before.
    Mr Pompeo had said progress was made during the two days he was in Pyongyang to discuss the issue.
    It was the first time he had visited North Korea since the Donald Trump-Kim Jong-un summit in Singapore.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44751283

    Whodathunkit?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,145

    When was England's fourth semi-final? (I've got WCs 1966 and 1990 and Euro '96.)

    European Championship 1968.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532

    And the £40 billion.....
    That too
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    How good could this team be in 2, 4 years time...?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,393
    One of the nerighbours has put their TV on really loud, so I can actually listen :)

    Disappointed that MalcolmG hasn't popped up to say

    Turnips 2
    Swedes 0

    :lol:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,913
    Pickford again - what a star
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502

    Pickford again - what a star

    I've taken the 16-1 on him for SPOTY. Given what's to come in the semi finals and final, he has a great chance.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Damn -- just remembered I've got a free in-play bet.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293


    “If they reject this offer in totality there is nothing further really to negotiate without abandoning almost all the Leave campaign promises so we start preparing for No Deal”

    Leave campaign promises? No such thing. How can they promise anything? They weren’t a government. Or claiming to become one. The promise of the referendum was to leave the EU. That we are doing it. Two caveats though. May has tied herself with her own red lines. And stood for re election promising many of these in her manifesto. If for instance we opted for EEA single market. It isn’t the referendum, but the GE manifesto that’s been betrayed.

    If EU won’t accept the free movement restrictions I can’t see anything that rivals membership of the eea as an alternative that causes minimum disruption. Either as a short term or long term decision.

    This claim ”UK will also apply common rulebook to state aid; and maintain same standards for environment, climate change, social & employment and consumer protection” makes me sleep better at night. It will utterly prevent much of the ambitions of the more radical of Corbyn’s followers.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    notme said:



    “If they reject this offer in totality there is nothing further really to negotiate without abandoning almost all the Leave campaign promises so we start preparing for No Deal”

    Leave campaign promises? No such thing. How can they promise anything? They weren’t a government. Or claiming to become one. The promise of the referendum was to leave the EU. That we are doing it. Two caveats though. May has tied herself with her own red lines. And stood for re election promising many of these in her manifesto. If for instance we opted for EEA single market. It isn’t the referendum, but the GE manifesto that’s been betrayed.

    If EU won’t accept the free movement restrictions I can’t see anything that rivals membership of the eea as an alternative that causes minimum disruption. Either as a short term or long term decision.

    This claim ”UK will also apply common rulebook to state aid; and maintain same standards for environment, climate change, social & employment and consumer protection” makes me sleep better at night. It will utterly prevent much of the ambitions of the more radical of Corbyn’s followers.

    Me too - Corbyn will not be a happy bunny today. The ultras on both sides of the divide got a kicking from May and it shows.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    HYUFD said:

    On the basis it would be accepted by the EU, if the EU rejects it and demands even more concessions that is a totally different ball game
    At what point does the settlement money become in doubt? With the lack of a deal do we walk away without paying?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,408

    When was England's fourth semi-final? (I've got WCs 1966 and 1990 and Euro '96.)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_1968
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2018
    This has been too easy for England. I thought Sweden would provide more competition.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,462
    felix said:

    Me too - Corbyn will not be a happy bunny today. The ultras on both sides of the divide got a kicking from May and it shows.
    May is also in prime position to call a referendum when the time comes in which she can be neutral.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,408
    England have been competent but Sweden must be a contender for the worst team ever to reach a WC QF.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502

    May is also in prime position to call a referendum when the time comes in which she can be neutral.
    Like she was last time? How did that work out for your side?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    May is also in prime position to call a referendum when the time comes in which she can be neutral.
    Do,you suspect the referendum will be on whether we accept the deal or not or whether we leave or not?

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502

    England have been competent but Sweden must be a contender for the worst team ever to reach a WC QF.

    Ukraine were pretty poor in 2006.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    England have been competent but Sweden must be a contender for the worst team ever to reach a WC QF.

    Hopefully that will be Russia in a couple of hours.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,462
    notme said:

    Do,you suspect the referendum will be on whether we accept the deal or not or whether we leave or not?
    Deal versus Remain. Brexiteers will be increasingly looking for a way to euthanise the project.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,408
    tlg86 said:

    Ukraine were pretty poor in 2006.
    They were but had Shevchenko and Rebrov up front so had some quality.

    Sweden are utterly mediocre.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,408
    tlg86 said:

    Like she was last time? How did that work out for your side?
    WG thought the trend was with Remain when the Sheffield result was announced at about 3.20 on Referendum night.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090

    Pickford again - what a star

    He’s very impressive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    Full time. England win and will go to their first world cup semi final in 28 years on Wednesday
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,312
    HYUFD said:

    Full time. England win and will go to their first world cup semi final in 28 years on Wednesday

    No pressure...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,408
    AndyJS said:

    This has been too easy for England. I thought Sweden would provide more competition.

    This was the Swedish squad when they reached the WC SF in 1994:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_FIFA_World_Cup_squads#Sweden

    Compare the depth and quality and attacking potential there to the non-entities here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_squads#Sweden
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,393
    HYUFD said:

    Full time. England win and will go to their first world cup semi final in 28 years on Wednesday

    Wow, that seemed much easier than I feared at 3pm.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,913
    England in the semi final of the World Cup - just take that in
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,532
    Though I have to say the Swedes won the contest of most beautiful spectators!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    HYUFD said:

    Though I have to say the Swedes won the contest of most beautiful spectators!

    "You're shit
    But your birds are fit....."
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,408
    So anyone want to offer odds on who England's lowest rated player will be on the BBC website ?
This discussion has been closed.