I doubt Jezza is remotely bothered about the anti-Brexit vote. The man is clearly itching for the hardest possible Brexit for two reasons:
1) The resulting economic misery and chaos will see the Tories hurled from office. 2) He can then build his socialist utopia in Britain unfettered by the neo-liberal restraints of the EU.
He'll probably appoint Rees-Mogg and Farage to his politburo - they've been enormously helpful.
On what basis? Hard Brexiteers would stick to the Tories but some Remainer Labour voters would shift LD and Remainer Tories would still not touch Corbyn with a bargepole.
Though I agree hard Brexit would suit the socialism he wants to implement in government just fine
I know that plenty of Remainer Tories voted for Corbyn because I canvassed 100s of them last year.
Yes they will vote Tory to keep out Corbyn regardless of Brexit
What are you talking about? They voted Labour at last year's GE. They didn't vote Tory. ie unTory. No Tory. Nil Tory.
Do you have anyway to judge the extent to which that was because he “couldn’t win”?
No. But the people seemed furious (bear in mind they were middle class, metropolitan elite, probably luvvies, many in big houses). I didn't get the feeling that it was a calculated push but be careful how much we push move.
I doubt Jezza is remotely bothered about the anti-Brexit vote. The man is clearly itching for the hardest possible Brexit for two reasons:
1) The resulting economic misery and chaos will see the Tories hurled from office. 2) He can then build his socialist utopia in Britain unfettered by the neo-liberal restraints of the EU.
He'll probably appoint Rees-Mogg and Farage to his politburo - they've been enormously helpful.
On what basis? Hard Brexiteers would stick to the Tories but some Remainer Labour voters would shift LD and Remainer Tories would still not touch Corbyn with a bargepole.
Though I agree hard Brexit would suit the socialism he wants to implement in government just fine
I know that plenty of Remainer Tories voted for Corbyn because I canvassed 100s of them last year.
Yes they will vote Tory to keep out Corbyn regardless of Brexit
What are you talking about? They voted Labour at last year's GE. They didn't vote Tory. ie unTory. No Tory. Nil Tory.
I would love to see HYUFD canvassing such people. He probably wouldn't believe the were Tory voters in the first place.
I don't. The Tory vote went up by 2.3 million votes between 2015 and 2017. I don't believe any significant number of Tory votes switched to Corbyn.
Agreed - the assumption that because Labour did better than expected last time they will do even better next time is one huge dose of wishful thinking. It is equally possible that we have reached and maybe passed peak Corbyn. With a different leader of course - ask Tony Blair - anything is possible.
I doubt Jezza is remotely bothered about the anti-Brexit vote. The man is clearly itching for the hardest possible Brexit for two reasons:
1) The resulting economic misery and chaos will see the Tories hurled from office. 2) He can then build his socialist utopia in Britain unfettered by the neo-liberal restraints of the EU.
He'll probably appoint Rees-Mogg and Farage to his politburo - they've been enormously helpful.
On what basis? Hard Brexiteers would stick to the Tories but some Remainer Labour voters would shift LD and Remainer Tories would still not touch Corbyn with a bargepole.
Though I agree hard Brexit would suit the socialism he wants to implement in government just fine
I know that plenty of Remainer Tories voted for Corbyn because I canvassed 100s of them last year.
Yes they will vote Tory to keep out Corbyn regardless of Brexit
What are you talking about? They voted Labour at last year's GE. They didn't vote Tory. ie unTory. No Tory. Nil Tory.
I would love to see HYUFD canvassing such people. He probably wouldn't believe the were Tory voters in the first place.
I don't. The Tory vote went up by 2.3 million votes between 2015 and 2017. I don't believe any significant number of Tory votes switched to Corbyn.
The doorstep never lies. Hundreds and hundreds. The constituency went from a Lab-Con marginal to a safe Lab seat. First time I've been called a nazi on the doorstep also, by a disgusted (at the thought of registering aliens) previous Cons voter.
I haven't canvassed the entire United Kingdom (tbf like @HYUFD seems to have done) but unless the air is special down where I was I have to believe that such sentiments, if milder, exist around the country.
You were in a surburban marginal in Greater London?
I didn’t get any of that down in Southampton Test. I did clearly read the canvass returns incorrectly, however.
As I said, I've no idea whether the air is different around the country, thus producing different types of Tories but the contention was (somewhere way back) that "Remainer Tories would still not touch Corbyn with a bargepole", and it looks like hundreds if not thousands of them did just that where I was last year.
To be fair to May though, I am not sure that the Tory Government is capable of being led by anyone at present! Attlee was never faced with a Brexit -type fissure running through his Administration. The closest he came to that was the row over NHS cuts in the wake of the Korean War in 1951 - and he only survived in office for a few months thereafter.
It is fascinating how the tribal clings on, long after external events render it pointless.
The new reality ought to be a Brexit Party, and a non-Brexit party.
I doubt Jezza is remotely bothered about the anti-Brexit vote. The man is clearly itching for the hardest possible Brexit for two reasons:
1) The resulting economic misery and chaos will see the Tories hurled from office. 2) He can then build his socialist utopia in Britain unfettered by the neo-liberal restraints of the EU.
He'll probably appoint Rees-Mogg and Farage to his politburo - they've been enormously helpful.
On what basis? Hard Brexiteers would stick to the Tories but some Remainer Labour voters would shift LD and Remainer Tories would still not touch Corbyn with a bargepole.
Though I agree hard Brexit would suit the socialism he wants to implement in government just fine
I know that plenty of Remainer Tories voted for Corbyn because I canvassed 100s of them last year.
Yes they will vote Tory to keep out Corbyn regardless of Brexit
What are you talking about? They voted Labour at last year's GE. They didn't vote Tory. ie unTory. No Tory. Nil Tory.
I would love to see HYUFD canvassing such people. He probably wouldn't believe the were Tory voters in the first place.
I don't. The Tory vote went up by 2.3 million votes between 2015 and 2017. I don't believe any significant number of Tory votes switched to Corbyn.
The doorstep never lies. Hundreds and hundreds. The constituency went from a Lab-Con marginal to a safe Lab seat. First time I've been called a nazi on the doorstep also, by a disgusted (at the thought of registering aliens) previous Cons voter.
I haven't canvassed the entire United Kingdom (tbf like @HYUFD seems to have done) but unless the air is special down where I was I have to believe that such sentiments, if milder, exist around the country.
So is that why Labour won such a big overall majority... oh...wait...
I doubt Jezza is remotely bothered about the anti-Brexit vote. The man is clearly itching for the hardest possible Brexit for two reasons:
1) The resulting economic misery and chaos will see the Tories hurled from office. 2) He can then build his socialist utopia in Britain unfettered by the neo-liberal restraints of the EU.
He'll probably appoint Rees-Mogg and Farage to his politburo - they've been enormously helpful.
On what basis? Hard Brexiteers would stick to the Tories but some Remainer Labour voters would shift LD and Remainer Tories would still not touch Corbyn with a bargepole.
Though I agree hard Brexit would suit the socialism he wants to implement in government just fine
I know that plenty of Remainer Tories voted for Corbyn because I canvassed 100s of them last year.
Yes they will vote Tory to keep out Corbyn regardless of Brexit
What are you talking about? They voted Labour at last year's GE. They didn't vote Tory. ie unTory. No Tory. Nil Tory.
I would love to see HYUFD canvassing such people. He probably wouldn't believe the were Tory voters in the first place.
I don't. The Tory vote went up by 2.3 million votes between 2015 and 2017. I don't believe any significant number of Tory votes switched to Corbyn.
The doorstep never lies. Hundreds and hundreds. The constituency went from a Lab-Con marginal to a safe Lab seat. First time I've been called a nazi on the doorstep also, by a disgusted (at the thought of registering aliens) previous Cons voter.
I haven't canvassed the entire United Kingdom (tbf like @HYUFD seems to have done) but unless the air is special down where I was I have to believe that such sentiments, if milder, exist around the country.
So is that why Labour won such a big overall majority... oh...wait...
In that constituency yes absolutely (your wait is over).
To be fair to May though, I am not sure that the Tory Government is capable of being led by anyone at present! Attlee was never faced with a Brexit -type fissure running through his Administration. The closest he came to that was the row over NHS cuts in the wake of the Korean War in 1951 - and he only survived in office for a few months thereafter.
It is fascinating how the tribal clings on, long after external events render it pointless.
The new reality ought to be a Brexit Party, and a non-Brexit party.
May and Corbyn would both be out.
No it absolutely shouldn't.
Brexit is an event not a dividing line. What divides us will continue to be left versus right not pro or anti Brexit. Brexit will happen and life will move on.
I doubt Jezza is remotely bothered about the anti-Brexit vote. The man is clearly itching for the hardest possible Brexit for two reasons:
1) The resulting economic misery and chaos will see the Tories hurled from office. 2) He can then build his socialist utopia in Britain unfettered by the neo-liberal restraints of the EU.
He'll probably appoint Rees-Mogg and Farage to his politburo - they've been enormously helpful.
On what basis? Hard Brexiteers would stick to the Tories but some Remainer Labour voters would shift LD and Remainer Tories would still not touch Corbyn with a bargepole.
Though I agree hard Brexit would suit the socialism he wants to implement in government just fine
I know that plenty of Remainer Tories voted for Corbyn because I canvassed 100s of them last year.
Yes they will vote Tory to keep out Corbyn regardless of Brexit
What are you talking about? They voted Labour at last year's GE. They didn't vote Tory. ie unTory. No Tory. Nil Tory.
I would love to see HYUFD canvassing such people. He probably wouldn't believe the were Tory voters in the first place.
I don't. The Tory vote went up by 2.3 million votes between 2015 and 2017. I don't believe any significant number of Tory votes switched to Corbyn.
The doorstep never lies. Hundreds and hundreds. The constituency went from a Lab-Con marginal to a safe Lab seat. First time I've been called a nazi on the doorstep also, by a disgusted (at the thought of registering aliens) previous Cons voter.
I haven't canvassed the entire United Kingdom (tbf like @HYUFD seems to have done) but unless the air is special down where I was I have to believe that such sentiments, if milder, exist around the country.
So is that why Labour won such a big overall majority... oh...wait...
In that constituency yes absolutely (your wait is over).
Which constituency was it out of curiosity? I'd be curious to see how much the Tory vote fell by in that constituency.
Labour lost by less than forecast not by winning over Tories but by hoovering up the non-Tories.
When 48% (at the last count) don't want it, that's a divide.
But, not all of those 48% feel as strongly about it as you do.
My sense is about 25% do on the pro EU side, and about 30% on the Brexit side, and you’ve got 45% of the electorate who are somewhere in the middle and would probably rather be talking about something else.
I doubt Jezza is remotely bothered about the anti-Brexit vote. The man is clearly itching for the hardest possible Brexit for two reasons:
1) The resulting economic misery and chaos will see the Tories hurled from office. 2) He can then build his socialist utopia in Britain unfettered by the neo-liberal restraints of the EU.
He'll probably appoint Rees-Mogg and Farage to his politburo - they've been enormously helpful.
On what basis? Hard Brexiteers would stick to the Tories but some Remainer Labour voters would shift LD and Remainer Tories would still not touch Corbyn with a bargepole.
Though I agree hard Brexit would suit the socialism he wants to implement in government just fine
I know that plenty of Remainer Tories voted for Corbyn because I canvassed 100s of them last year.
Yes they will vote Tory to keep out Corbyn regardless of Brexit
What are you talking about? They voted Labour at last year's GE. They didn't vote Tory. ie unTory. No Tory. Nil Tory.
I would love to see HYUFD canvassing such people. He probably wouldn't believe the were Tory voters in the first place.
I don't. The Tory vote went up by 2.3 million votes between 2015 and 2017. I don't believe any significant number of Tory votes switched to Corbyn.
The doorstep never lies. Hundreds and hundreds. The constituency went from a Lab-Con marginal to a safe Lab seat. First time I've been called a nazi on the doorstep also, by a disgusted (at the thought of registering aliens) previous Cons voter.
I haven't canvassed the entire United Kingdom (tbf like @HYUFD seems to have done) but unless the air is special down where I was I have to believe that such sentiments, if milder, exist around the country.
So is that why Labour won such a big overall majority... oh...wait...
In that constituency yes absolutely (your wait is over).
I doubt Jezza is remotely bothered about the anti-Brexit vote. The man is clearly itching for the hardest possible Brexit for two reasons:
1) The resulting economic misery and chaos will see the Tories hurled from office. 2) He can then build his socialist utopia in Britain unfettered by the neo-liberal restraints of the EU.
He'll probably appoint Rees-Mogg and Farage to his politburo - they've been enormously helpful.
On what basis? Hard Brexiteers would stick to the Tories but some Remainer Labour voters would shift LD and Remainer Tories would still not touch Corbyn with a bargepole.
Though I agree hard Brexit would suit the socialism he wants to implement in government just fine
I know that plenty of Remainer Tories voted for Corbyn because I canvassed 100s of them last year.
Yes they will vote Tory to keep out Corbyn regardless of Brexit
What are you talking about? They voted Labour at last year's GE. They didn't vote Tory. ie unTory. No Tory. Nil Tory.
I would love to see HYUFD canvassing such people. He probably wouldn't believe the were Tory voters in the first place.
I don't. The Tory vote went up by 2.3 million votes between 2015 and 2017. I don't believe any significant number of Tory votes switched to Corbyn.
The doorstep never lies. Hundreds and hundreds. The constituency went from a Lab-Con marginal to a safe Lab seat. First time I've been called a nazi on the doorstep also, by a disgusted (at the thought of registering aliens) previous Cons voter.
I haven't canvassed the entire United Kingdom (tbf like @HYUFD seems to have done) but unless the air is special down where I was I have to believe that such sentiments, if milder, exist around the country.
You were in a surburban marginal in Greater London?
I didn’t get any of that down in Southampton Test. I did clearly read the canvass returns incorrectly, however.
As I said, I've no idea whether the air is different around the country, thus producing different types of Tories but the contention was (somewhere way back) that "Remainer Tories would still not touch Corbyn with a bargepole", and it looks like hundreds if not thousands of them did just that where I was last year.
When 48% (at the last count) don't want it, that's a divide.
But, not all of those 48% feel as strongly about it as you do.
My sense is about 25% do on the pro EU side, and about 30% on the Brexit side, and you’ve got 45% of the electorate who are somewhere in the middle and would probably rather be talking about something else.
The last YouGov poll has 19% strongly approving of EU membership and 20% strongly disapproving. That's a lot of people in the middle who are potential swing voters in a second referendum.
I doubt Jezza is remotely bothered about the anti-Brexit vote. The man is clearly itching for the hardest possible Brexit for two reasons:
1) The resulting economic misery and chaos will see the Tories hurled from office. 2) He can then build his socialist utopia in Britain unfettered by the neo-liberal restraints of the EU.
He'll probably appoint Rees-Mogg and Farage to his politburo - they've been enormously helpful.
fine
I kear.
Yes texit
Wry.
I would love to see HYUFD canvassing such people. He probably wouldn't believe the were Tory voters in the first place.
I don't. The Tory vote went up by 2.3 million votes between 2015 and 2017. I don't believe any significant number of Tory votes switched to Corbyn.
The doorstep never lies. Hundreds and hundreds. The constituency went from a Lab-Con marginal to a safe Lab seat. First time I've been called a nazi on the doorstep also, by a disgusted (at the thought of registering aliens) previous Cons voter.
I haven't canvassed the entire United Kingdom (tbf like @HYUFD seems to have done) but unless the air is special down where I was I have to believe that such sentiments, if milder, exist around the country.
So is that why Labour won such a big overall majority... oh...wait...
In that constituency yes absolutely (your wait is over).
Which constituency was it out of curiosity? I'd be curious to see how much the Tory vote fell by in that constituency.
Labour lost by less than forecast not by winning over Tories but by hoovering up the non-Tories.
Cons vote fell by 2,500. Turnout up 4,500, Lab vote up by 11,000, registered electors down by 2,800.
Let's assume Greens and Kippers (2,000 apiece, didn't stand) went Lab and Cons respectively. Plus let's assume all those extra who voted this time went Lab. So:
When 48% (at the last count) don't want it, that's a divide.
But, not all of those 48% feel as strongly about it as you do.
My sense is about 25% do on the pro EU side, and about 30% on the Brexit side, and you’ve got 45% of the electorate who are somewhere in the middle and would probably rather be talking about something else.
I doubt it's even that high. Post-Brexit Lib Dems peaked last year at 7.9% and pre-Brexit UKIP peaked at 12.6% and people have other reasons to vote for these protest parties.
The people whose votes will be swung solely on Brexit now are probably no more than 10% if that. They'll care about Brexit while its a live issue but other issues take priority.
I doubt it's even that high. Post-Brexit Lib Dems peaked last year at 7.9% and pre-Brexit UKIP peaked at 12.6% and people have other reasons to vote for these protest parties.
The people whose votes will be swung solely on Brexit now are probably no more than 10% if that. They'll care about Brexit while its a live issue but other issues take priority.
I doubt Jezza is remotely bothered about the anti-Brexit vote. The man is clearly itching for the hardest possible Brexit for two reasons:
1) The resulting economic misery and chaos will see the Tories hurled from office. 2) He can then build his socialist utopia in Britain unfettered by the neo-liberal restraints of the EU.
He'll probably appoint Rees-Mogg and Farage to his politburo - they've been enormously helpful.
fine
I kear.
Yes texit
Wry.
I would love to see HYUFD canvassing such people. He probably wouldn't believe the were Tory voters in the first place.
I don't. The Tory vote went up by 2.3 million votes between 2015 and 2017. I don't believe any significant number of Tory votes switched to Corbyn.
The doorstep never lies. Hundreds and hundreds. The constituency went from a Lab-Con marginal to a safe Lab seat. First time I've been called a nazi on the doorstep also, by a disgusted (at the thought of registering aliens) previous Cons voter.
I haven't canvassed the entire United Kingdom (tbf like @HYUFD seems to have done) but unless the air is special down where I was I have to believe that such sentiments, if milder, exist around the country.
So is that why Labour won such a big overall majority... oh...wait...
In that constituency yes absolutely (your wait is over).
Which constituency was it out of curiosity? I'd be curious to see how much the Tory vote fell by in that constituency.
Labour lost by less than forecast not by winning over Tories but by hoovering up the non-Tories.
Cons vote fell by 2,500. Turnout up 4,500, Lab vote up by 11,000, registered electors down by 2,800.
Let's assume Greens and Kippers (2,000 apiece, didn't stand) went Lab and Cons respectively. Plus let's assume all those extra who voted this time went Lab. So:
Interesting constituency, bucks a number of national trends. Firstly I dispute all UKIP votes went Tory, that was never a sound assumption. UKIP votes were largely protest ones. Worth noting Tories still got more than in 2010.
Post GE2017 a couple of themes emerged which looked right at first glance but actually weren't.
i) Labour had a massive youthquake. Not to nearly the same extent as people made out ii) The UKIP didn't go heavily Tory as expected. It did
I'd be very surprised if there weren't a significant number of Tory -> Lab switchers in heavily remain areas quite honestly - @Topping anecdote for EC&A seems fair enough to me. It is a neccesary piece of the jigsaw to make all the numbers fit.
Post GE2017 a couple of themes emerged which looked right at first glance but actually weren't.
i) Labour had a massive youthquake. Not to nearly the same extent as people made out ii) The UKIP didn't go heavily Tory as expected. It did
I'd be very surprised if there weren't a significant number of Tory -> Lab switchers in heavily remain areas quite honestly - @Topping anecdote for EC&A seems fair enough to me.
There were quite a few even in heavily Leave areas. I think I had enough Lab --> Con (and UKIP --> Con) swing to win Don Valley, but couldn't contend with DNV --> Lab and Con --> Lab on top.
Not to mention some UKIP --> Lab; as previously discussed I think I'd have been marginally better off if they'd stood. Anyone still voting UKIP was essentially anti-establishment-sod-the-lot-of-you: without a UKIP candidate on the paper they're surely most likely to vote Corbyn?
As I keep saying its becasue of the economy. If unemployment was an issue then the poll results would be vastly different.
Quite. I live in a con held con labour marginal (a gain in 2010, 2017 increased majority). Local labour seem to be falling over themselves with grunts of orgasmic delight about how the torie have put the nhs into an underfunded crisis (but big happy birthday) due to cuts and have done it on purpose because they are monsters , and and how universal credit will have everyone in poverty. Oh and the plight of fully grown women who can’t afford 60p for a pack of sanitary wear. It’s all they go on about. I assume it’s their comfort zone. But it’s a bit tedious and we’ve heard it all before.
Interesting constituency, bucks a number of national trends. Firstly I dispute all UKIP votes went Tory, that was never a sound assumption. UKIP votes were largely protest ones. Worth noting Tories still got more than in 2010.
No idea where the Kippers went. Probably a few hundred votes either way.
When 48% (at the last count) don't want it, that's a divide.
But, not all of those 48% feel as strongly about it as you do.
My sense is about 25% do on the pro EU side, and about 30% on the Brexit side, and you’ve got 45% of the electorate who are somewhere in the middle and would probably rather be talking about something else.
It would be nice to get Number Cruncher Politics's rejoin question asked every quarter or so; if it remains as-is then that's probably true and we can all move on to bicker about something else. If it starts to head back towards evens then we can spend the next decade rehashing the last two years of arguments.
Interesting constituency, bucks a number of national trends. Firstly I dispute all UKIP votes went Tory, that was never a sound assumption. UKIP votes were largely protest ones. Worth noting Tories still got more than in 2010.
Not all but ~ 55 -> 60% of the 2015 UKIP vote did or so. Was between 8 -> 18% for Labour.
"She ignored advice was Shami Chakrabarti and ploughed on anyway"
She whitewashed an enquiry into antisemitism during an event in Brighton?!?
I have no idea where people get these ideas from...
Jeremy Corbyn's Labour is breeding 'softcore' Holocaust denial, a leading academic has warned.
Deborah Lipstadt, who rose to prominence in a legal battle with historian David Irving in 2000 after accusing him of Holocast denial, said anti-Semitism was 'embedded' in Labour.
CPS says a man known only as 'Nick' whose claims led to the operation Midland Paedophile Investigation in Westminster will be charged with 12 counts of perverting the course of justice and one count of fraud
Post GE2017 a couple of themes emerged which looked right at first glance but actually weren't.
i) Labour had a massive youthquake. Not to nearly the same extent as people made out ii) The UKIP didn't go heavily Tory as expected. It did
I'd be very surprised if there weren't a significant number of Tory -> Lab switchers in heavily remain areas quite honestly - @Topping anecdote for EC&A seems fair enough to me.
There were quite a few even in heavily Leave areas. I think I had enough Lab --> Con (and UKIP --> Con) swing to win Don Valley, but couldn't contend with DNV --> Lab and Con --> Lab on top.
Not to mention some UKIP --> Lab; as previously discussed I think I'd have been marginally better off if they'd stood. Anyone still voting UKIP was essentially anti-establishment-sod-the-lot-of-you: without a UKIP candidate on the paper they're surely most likely to vote Corbyn?
How much time did you split between the various bits of the constituency, did you venture out to Edlington much or prefer to spend time in Tickhill
CPS says a man known only as 'Nick' whose claims led to the operation Midland Paedophile Investigation in Westminster will be charged with 12 counts of perverting the course of justice and one count of fraud
Over to you Tom Watson
Its quite incredible that Watson still have a leading role in a political party, especially given we live in an environment where touching a ladies knee 20 years ago is enough to lose your job.
Post GE2017 a couple of themes emerged which looked right at first glance but actually weren't.
i) Labour had a massive youthquake. Not to nearly the same extent as people made out ii) The UKIP didn't go heavily Tory as expected. It did
I'd be very surprised if there weren't a significant number of Tory -> Lab switchers in heavily remain areas quite honestly - @Topping anecdote for EC&A seems fair enough to me.
There were quite a few even in heavily Leave areas. I think I had enough Lab --> Con (and UKIP --> Con) swing to win Don Valley, but couldn't contend with DNV --> Lab and Con --> Lab on top.
Not to mention some UKIP --> Lab; as previously discussed I think I'd have been marginally better off if they'd stood. Anyone still voting UKIP was essentially anti-establishment-sod-the-lot-of-you: without a UKIP candidate on the paper they're surely most likely to vote Corbyn?
How much time did you split between the various bits of the constituency, did you venture out to Edlington much or prefer to spend time in Tickhill
I spent the majority of my time in the "old Labour" areas - that's where the target voters were. Including breaking up a spectacular near-fight in Edlington between an ex-miner and someone delivering my leaflets: the guy was so offended to have a leaflet delivered through his door he came out and chucked it back at us even though we were 30 yards up the road by then.
I doubt it's even that high. Post-Brexit Lib Dems peaked last year at 7.9% and pre-Brexit UKIP peaked at 12.6% and people have other reasons to vote for these protest parties.
The people whose votes will be swung solely on Brexit now are probably no more than 10% if that. They'll care about Brexit while its a live issue but other issues take priority.
The War will be over by Christmas...
Nah the war will never end but the war is between left and right.
Recent polling on the importance of the Supreme Court nomination for the midterms:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/03/abortion-supreme-court-justice-691338 “More than three-quarters (76 percent) of voters say their senator’s position on the ... nominee will be a very or somewhat important factor at the ballot box, including 82 percent of Democrats, 80 percent of Republicans, and 68 percent of independents.”
Note that independents' opinions by some margin do not favour the sort of justice Trump is likely to pick.
I think there's a temptation to put too much store in Brexit preferences in guessing how protest votes will move.
Feels to me like there's a large, unpredictable, emotional and probably growing Screw You Vote which can manifest itself in different ways each time (from LibDems in 2010 to UKIP mid-parliament to Brexit to Corbyn).
Part of the unpredictability is that it's different people each time (the green left in 2010; wwc in 2016), but also that any of those groups may well change their views over time (enthusiastic supporters of hard Brexit will soon kick a government which delivers a personal economic downturn as a result).
So.. while I agree with Mike's analysis that there are disenfranchised remainers looking for a home, I think there are dangers in applying too much logic to the swings.
When 48% (at the last count) don't want it, that's a divide.
But, not all of those 48% feel as strongly about it as you do.
My sense is about 25% do on the pro EU side, and about 30% on the Brexit side, and you’ve got 45% of the electorate who are somewhere in the middle and would probably rather be talking about something else.
The last YouGov poll has 19% strongly approving of EU membership and 20% strongly disapproving. That's a lot of people in the middle who are potential swing voters in a second referendum.
Good news for the Lib Dems and Conservatives of Sheffield Hallam. Maybe, a year after the election, their Labour MP might deign to give the House the honour of a Maiden Speech?
O/T. Why do so many of our flags have ENGLAND written across them? Other countries don't feel the need to deface their flags in such a shouty manner.
I think it's perceived as added value. How do you differentiate your flag from the dozens of other identical flags? How do you choose between dozens of identical flags?
When 48% (at the last count) don't want it, that's a divide.
But, not all of those 48% feel as strongly about it as you do.
My sense is about 25% do on the pro EU side, and about 30% on the Brexit side, and you’ve got 45% of the electorate who are somewhere in the middle and would probably rather be talking about something else.
The last YouGov poll has 19% strongly approving of EU membership and 20% strongly disapproving. That's a lot of people in the middle who are potential swing voters in a second referendum.
When 48% (at the last count) don't want it, that's a divide.
But, not all of those 48% feel as strongly about it as you do.
My sense is about 25% do on the pro EU side, and about 30% on the Brexit side, and you’ve got 45% of the electorate who are somewhere in the middle and would probably rather be talking about something else.
The last YouGov poll has 19% strongly approving of EU membership and 20% strongly disapproving. That's a lot of people in the middle who are potential swing voters in a second referendum.
Press Association #Breaking A man known only as Nick whose claims sparked the Operation Midland paedophile investigation in Westminster will be charged with 12 counts of perverting the course of justice and one count of fraud, the Crown Prosecution Service says
I think England have a better chance against Switzerland. We've beaten them in qualifiers relatively recently. We have a dreadful record against Sweden.
When 48% (at the last count) don't want it, that's a divide.
But, not all of those 48% feel as strongly about it as you do.
My sense is about 25% do on the pro EU side, and about 30% on the Brexit side, and you’ve got 45% of the electorate who are somewhere in the middle and would probably rather be talking about something else.
The last YouGov poll has 19% strongly approving of EU membership and 20% strongly disapproving. That's a lot of people in the middle who are potential swing voters in a second referendum.
When 48% (at the last count) don't want it, that's a divide.
But, not all of those 48% feel as strongly about it as you do.
My sense is about 25% do on the pro EU side, and about 30% on the Brexit side, and you’ve got 45% of the electorate who are somewhere in the middle and would probably rather be talking about something else.
The last YouGov poll has 19% strongly approving of EU membership and 20% strongly disapproving. That's a lot of people in the middle who are potential swing voters in a second referendum.
Which state has the record for winning naval battles in (what is today territory of) Switzerland?
[NB I'm aware it's landlocked].
Dunno but HMS Gleaner (since paid off by the Fireplace Salesman) was the last RN vessel to visit Switzerland. Spare a thought for the jacks who signed up for the fleshpots of Manila and ended up supping 10 quid coffees in Basel.
Which state has the record for winning naval battles in (what is today territory of) Switzerland?
[NB I'm aware it's landlocked].
Given the period you specialise in I would suspect the Romans, but there'd be no-one for them to fight naval battles against.
Pretty sure that old Bones-apart invaded Switzerland, so I'm going to say that it's the French, which would be kinda funny if true given their record against the British in the open ocean.
I feel sure someone must have pointed it out, but if not, Corbyn doesn't give a jot about becoming PM. All he cares about is turning Labour into a far left party, positioning in the polls to him is irrelevant.(because he will never win and knows it.)
I doubt Jezza is remotely bothered about the anti-Brexit vote. The man is clearly itching for the hardest possible Brexit for two reasons:
1) The resulting economic misery and chaos will see the Tories hurled from office. 2) He can then build his socialist utopia in Britain unfettered by the neo-liberal restraints of the EU.
He'll probably appoint Rees-Mogg and Farage to his politburo - they've been enormously helpful.
On what basis? Hard Brexiteers would stick to the Tories but some Remainer Labour voters would shift LD and Remainer Tories would still not touch Corbyn with a bargepole.
Though I agree hard Brexit would suit the socialism he wants to implement in government just fine
I know that plenty of Remainer Tories voted for Corbyn because I canvassed 100s of them last year.
Yes they will vote Tory to keep out Corbyn regardless of Brexit
What are you talking about? They voted Labour at last year's GE. They didn't vote Tory. ie unTory. No Tory. Nil Tory.
I would love to see HYUFD canvassing such people. He probably wouldn't believe the were Tory voters in the first place.
I don't. The Tory vote went up by 2.3 million votes between 2015 and 2017. I don't believe any significant number of Tory votes switched to Corbyn.
The doorstep never lies. Hundreds and hundreds. The constituency went from a Lab-Con marginal to a safe Lab seat. First time I've been called a nazi on the doorstep also, by a disgusted (at the thought of registering aliens) previous Cons voter.
I haven't canvassed the entire United Kingdom (tbf like @HYUFD seems to have done) but unless the air is special down where I was I have to believe that such sentiments, if milder, exist around the country.
You were in a surburban marginal in Greater London?
I didn’t get any of that down in Southampton Test. I did clearly read the canvass returns incorrectly, however.
As I said, I've no idea whether the air is different around the country, thus producing different types of Tories but the contention was (somewhere way back) that "Remainer Tories would still not touch Corbyn with a bargepole", and it looks like hundreds if not thousands of them did just that where I was last year.
I think there are very different types of Tories. Tories in Kent or Essex are plainly very different from Tories in Ealing or Wandsworth.
Comments
The new reality ought to be a Brexit Party, and a non-Brexit party.
May and Corbyn would both be out.
Brexit is an event not a dividing line. What divides us will continue to be left versus right not pro or anti Brexit. Brexit will happen and life will move on.
Oh, sorry, that's a bit too European for the modern Conservative Party.
Labour lost by less than forecast not by winning over Tories but by hoovering up the non-Tories.
When 48% (at the last count) don't want it, that's a divide.
Credible and true, they said. Tom Watson should be sacked for this farce and pay the full £2.5m cost of the investigation.
When 7.9% (at the last count) are willing to vote for an anti-Brexit party, that's not a divide.
My sense is about 25% do on the pro EU side, and about 30% on the Brexit side, and you’ve got 45% of the electorate who are somewhere in the middle and would probably rather be talking about something else.
I'm not surprised that Topping had his experiences.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/hit82jf794/HandelsblattResults_June18_Topline_client_w.pdf
Cons vote fell by 2,500. Turnout up 4,500, Lab vote up by 11,000, registered electors down by 2,800.
Let's assume Greens and Kippers (2,000 apiece, didn't stand) went Lab and Cons respectively. Plus let's assume all those extra who voted this time went Lab. So:
Lab = 33,000 = 22,000 + 2,000 Green + 4,500 new voters + 4,500 Cons
Cons = 19,200 = 21,700 + 2,000 UKIP - 4,500 Cons!
The people whose votes will be swung solely on Brexit now are probably no more than 10% if that. They'll care about Brexit while its a live issue but other issues take priority.
i) Labour had a massive youthquake. Not to nearly the same extent as people made out
ii) The UKIP didn't go heavily Tory as expected. It did
I'd be very surprised if there weren't a significant number of Tory -> Lab switchers in heavily remain areas quite honestly - @Topping anecdote for EC&A seems fair enough to me. It is a neccesary piece of the jigsaw to make all the numbers fit.
Not to mention some UKIP --> Lab; as previously discussed I think I'd have been marginally better off if they'd stood. Anyone still voting UKIP was essentially anti-establishment-sod-the-lot-of-you: without a UKIP candidate on the paper they're surely most likely to vote Corbyn?
She whitewashed an enquiry into antisemitism during an event in Brighton?!?
Other countries don't feel the need to deface their flags in such a shouty manner.
Jeremy Corbyn's Labour is breeding 'softcore' Holocaust denial, a leading academic has warned.
Deborah Lipstadt, who rose to prominence in a legal battle with historian David Irving in 2000 after accusing him of Holocast denial, said anti-Semitism was 'embedded' in Labour.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5913129/Corbyns-Labour-Party-breeding-softcore-Holocaust-denial-claims-leading-academic.html
Our flag can be mistaken for the flag of Georgia so we have to put England on it to avoid confusion.
CPS says a man known only as 'Nick' whose claims led to the operation Midland Paedophile Investigation in Westminster will be charged with 12 counts of perverting the course of justice and one count of fraud
Over to you Tom Watson
'Cos God didn't rust the English in the dark!
Brexit is a mere skirmish in comparison.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/03/abortion-supreme-court-justice-691338
“More than three-quarters (76 percent) of voters say their senator’s position on the ... nominee will be a very or somewhat important factor at the ballot box, including 82 percent of Democrats, 80 percent of Republicans, and 68 percent of independents.”
Note that independents' opinions by some margin do not favour the sort of justice Trump is likely to pick.
Feels to me like there's a large, unpredictable, emotional and probably growing Screw You Vote which can manifest itself in different ways each time (from LibDems in 2010 to UKIP mid-parliament to Brexit to Corbyn).
Part of the unpredictability is that it's different people each time (the green left in 2010; wwc in 2016), but also that any of those groups may well change their views over time (enthusiastic supporters of hard Brexit will soon kick a government which delivers a personal economic downturn as a result).
So.. while I agree with Mike's analysis that there are disenfranchised remainers looking for a home, I think there are dangers in applying too much logic to the swings.
Seems a bit churlish to even deny such a division.
i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/02/06/article-2274501-04BCD4D20000044D-511_634x418.jpg
*Hubris klaxon ends*
Maybe, a year after the election, their Labour MP might deign to give the House the honour of a Maiden Speech?
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1014144051476647937
What flag even is that?
DYOR
Which state has the record for winning naval battles in (what is today territory of) Switzerland?
[NB I'm aware it's landlocked].
#Breaking A man known only as Nick whose claims sparked the Operation Midland paedophile investigation in Westminster will be charged with 12 counts of perverting the course of justice and one count of fraud, the Crown Prosecution Service says
Paging Tom Watson.,paging Tom Watson
Pretty sure that old Bones-apart invaded Switzerland, so I'm going to say that it's the French, which would be kinda funny if true given their record against the British in the open ocean.
And according to Wikipedia, they weren’t involved.
Mr. Me, you're correct. Forget who they were fighting (might have been the Helvetii).