@Davidl - I had a look at the SMMT figures to see what they were based on. They were for investment in new models, not overall investment in the car industry.
Anecdotally I've heard Milton Keynes is experiencing a real housing boom btw.
Well we can either listen to anecdotes (which may well be perfectly valid individual experiences) or we can look at the figures.
So we can listen to the endless stories about how no one want to invest in the UK anymore or we can look at the figures showing we still get the largest share of direct foreign investment in Europe, we can listen to anecdotes (and that is being polite) about the inevitable closure of our car industry or we can look at the figures @another_Richard linked to showing that investment was at record levels last year and in Q1 of this year, we can look at examples of where wages have gone up or we can look at the figures for average earnings over the last 2 years.
Sometimes the anecdotes hint the official figures are wrong. They are worth considering. But it is impossible for anyone with any understanding of economics to disregard the effect on average earnings of the increased supply of labour or to ignore the fact that some gained from that by cheaper services but some lost because their standard of living was reduced.
Well the anecdote was from a builder working on newbuilds there. He can't find the labour and sounds similiar to @currystar anecdote. I think (And I might be wrong) that help to sell is properly warping the market from what otherwise would be falling prices and obviously that means implied Gov't risk..
The national figures point to very low increases in house prices with prices actually falling in London at the moment. That doesn't strike me as the sort of environment where most builders will be busting a gut to pop out extra houses. But there will be regional variations and it may well be that Milton Keynes is one of them.
So. Apart from the sparks' 50% wage increase, the newbuilds, the shortage of labour...what did the EU ever do for us?
I thought PB Leavers' point of view was that everything is fantastic why the doom mongering and now you are saying everything is dreadful the sooner we leave the EU the better.
@Topping you're getting currystar mixed up with an ardent brexiteer.
Anecdotally I've heard Milton Keynes is experiencing a real housing boom btw.
Well we can either listen to anecdotes (which may well be perfectly valid individual experiences) or we can look at the figures.
So we can listen to the endless stories about how no one want to invest in the UK anymore or we can look at the figures showing we still get the largest share of direct foreign investment in Europe, we can listen to anecdotes (and that is being polite) about the inevitable closure of our car industry or we can look at the figures @another_Richard linked to showing that investment was at record levels last year and in Q1 of this year, we can look at examples of where wages have gone up or we can look at the figures for average earnings over the last 2 years.
Sometimes the anecdotes hint the official figures are wrong. They are worth considering. But it is impossible for anyone with any understanding of economics to disregard the effect on average earnings of the increased supply of labour or to ignore the fact that some gained from that by cheaper services but some lost because their standard of living was reduced.
My view is that we are taking a slight hit due to uncertainty, but it’s exaggerated.
Having said that the UK/EU have left it *very* late in the day to clarify future trading arrangements and some businesses are understandably frustrated by that.
I completely agree with that. We are undoubtedly suffering damage because of the uncertainty. Some of that is the EU's fault because their completely absurd position about not talking about anything important for the first year but this government is far from blameless.
@Davidl - I had a look at the SMMT figures to see what they were based on. They were for investment in new models, not overall investment in the car industry.
The figures @another_Richard referred to was the whole industry so we can be confident that investment is continuing apace. Of course new models are important and the current uncertainty may well delay decisions on their introductions. We really need to get on with it.
Yep. Condemned to a 50% wage increase in five years, instead of a 100%? 200%? increase.
Alternatively, potential would-be domestic electricians don't decide to stay in education or pay for their own training, and stay/end up in lower-paid, lower-skill jobs (or even unemployment), and our training industry loses out on that hypothetical business.
People respond to incentives, everywhere. Though sometimes not as perfectly as a model might suggest.
Wrt to sparking, I think it's one of the few industries not to be too badly hit by immigration. My best mate runs a spark crew that does high end city refits (they just did 6 floors in the walkie talkie) and he always says that almost all of his labour is British. They don't do domestic work though so I don't know how it is thar sector. He says average day rates for London sparks is about £220, not sure how that compares to five years ago. I expect the high pay is partly because there isn't a lot of migrant labour.
Who ever thought homosexuals should have the right to a civil partnership but not heterosexuals?
When the law was drafted the rights/obligations of civil partnership were identical to those of a civil marriage. They didn’t use the term because it has a lot of significance to the religious among us.
In that context no one in the service thought about it - because from a rational perspective - there is no difference.
I guess they didn’t expect a couple of weirdos who wanted to be partners but not married because they didn’t think “marriage” appropriately described their relationship.
But the outcome is the right place (and actually they should just merge the two concepts)
Did I not read on here that the quite elegant concept of civil partnership was originally proposed by your good self?
That’s too strong. A friend of mine was drafting Blair’s policy position on it and I simply suggested the idea over dinner. At most just a nudge in the right direction - give same-sex couples what they rightly demanded on substance and make a linguistic concession on the other side. Many many people had a much bigger role
Typically reserved of you, sir.
Those opposed were worried about the language, and those in favour were worried about their rights - so let’s propose the rights but in a different language, in a way that’s acceptable to everyone.
Anecdotally I've heard Milton Keynes is experiencing a real housing boom btw.
Well we can either listen to anecdotes (which may well be perfectly valid individual experiences) or we can look at the figures.
So we can listen to the endless stories about how no one want to invest in the UK anymore or we can look at the figures showing we still get the largest share of direct foreign investment in Europe, we can listen to anecdotes (and that is being polite) about the inevitable closure of our car industry or we can look at the figures @another_Richard linked to showing that investment was at record levels last year and in Q1 of this year, we can look at examples of where wages have gone up or we can look at the figures for average earnings over the last 2 years.
Sometimes the anecdotes hint the official figures are wrong. They are worth considering. But it is impossible for anyone with any understanding of economics to disregard the effect on average earnings of the increased supply of labour or to ignore the fact that some gained from that by cheaper services but some lost because their standard of living was reduced.
Well the anecdote was from a builder working on newbuilds there. He can't find the labour and sounds similiar to @currystar anecdote. I think (And I might be wrong) that help to sell is properly warping the market from what otherwise would be falling prices and obviously that means implied Gov't risk..
The national figures point to very low increases in house prices with prices actually falling in London at the moment. That doesn't strike me as the sort of environment where most builders will be busting a gut to pop out extra houses. But there will be regional variations and it may well be that Milton Keynes is one of them.
So. Apart from the sparks' 50% wage increase, the newbuilds, the shortage of labour...what did the EU ever do for us?
I thought PB Leavers' point of view was that everything is fantastic why the doom mongering and now you are saying everything is dreadful the sooner we leave the EU the better.
I have never said everything is fantastic. I am not doom mongering either. But this is getting silly and pointless.
@Davidl - I had a look at the SMMT figures to see what they were based on. They were for investment in new models, not overall investment in the car industry.
Meanwhile companies like McLaren are investing millions in their new Yorkshire composites factory, onshoring production from Austria and generating hundreds of skilled jobs and apprentiships.
@Davidl - I had a look at the SMMT figures to see what they were based on. They were for investment in new models, not overall investment in the car industry.
Meanwhile companies like McLaren are investing millions in their new Yorkshire composites factory, onshoring production from Austria and generating hundreds of skilled jobs and apprentiships.
Yesterday, the FT had a big article on the automotive industry and supply chains and directly stated that all Alloy Wheels are imported into the UK for mainstream production, not specialist and that there would never ever be a 200m investment to make alloy wheels in the UK. Why the heck they do not use google to check or ask anybody in the industry what is happening is beyond me. Once it was a respected newspaper.
I would worry about PB if PB Leavers actually understood what I posted.
My point to @currystar was that his business is choc full of foreigners and, despite the fact that said presence of foreigners is supposed to have suppressed wages, whereas there was a 50% wage increase while they were there.
So the point that foreigners suppress wages which was one of the reasons why people voted for Brexit...was not true.
That’s just wrong (as a matter of maths and language).
If wages were expected to increase by 100% but, because of the presence of foreigners, they only increased by 50% then wages are definitely surprised even if they are increasing
Suppressed even.
But it does appear that @currystar is in something of a hotspot. Average wages actually fell last year in real terms and only started to grow again this year.
Anecdotally I've heard Milton Keynes is experiencing a real housing boom btw.
Well we can either listen to anecdotes (which may well be perfectly valid individual experiences) or we can look at the figures.
So we can listen to
Sometimes the anecdotes hint the official figures are wrong. They are worth considering. But it is impossible for anyone with any understanding of economics to disregard the effect on average earnings of the increased supply of labour or to ignore the fact that some gained from that by cheaper services but some lost because their standard of living was reduced.
Every cheap foreign sparky has hundreds of satisfied customers, many of them also working class
Undoubtedly. Possibly even some not so satisfied customers too. But if you are a sparky you lose out. It's basic.
If you are a customer you gain. It is much the same as import tarriffs in terms of protectionism.
Personally I am looking forward to pay increases for sturdy yeoman doctors as part of the benefit of Brexit. I may even be able to go part time on the same income, and spend more time abroad.
Yep. Condemned to a 50% wage increase in five years, instead of a 100%? 200%? increase.
Alternatively, potential would-be domestic electricians don't decide to stay in education or pay for their own training, and stay/end up in lower-paid, lower-skill jobs (or even unemployment), and our training industry loses out on that hypothetical business.
People respond to incentives, everywhere. Though sometimes not as perfectly as a model might suggest.
There some evidence of the reverse effect, that an influx of low-skilled migrants can increase wages of natives, because it pushes locals into more skilled and specialised tasks and away from manual labour.
Yesterday, the FT had a big article on the automotive industry and supply chains and directly stated that all Alloy Wheels are imported into the UK for mainstream production, not specialist and that there would never ever big a 200m investment to make alloy wheels in the UK. Why the heck they do not use google to check or ask anybody in the industry what is happening is beyond me. Once it was a respected newspaper.
Once we repoen the aluminium mines after Brexit we will no longer need to import alloy wheels...
@Tissue_Price Do you think Nate's SPI model overstates favourites generally or i it about right ?
Imo, all of the models are much-of-a-muchness with the biggest problem being calibrating the continents against each other. I generally prefer the betting market so that means not very many bets! Apart from taking contrarian views on must-win scenarios...
@Davidl - I had a look at the SMMT figures to see what they were based on. They were for investment in new models, not overall investment in the car industry.
Meanwhile companies like McLaren are investing millions in their new Yorkshire composites factory, onshoring production from Austria and generating hundreds of skilled jobs and apprentiships.
Yesterday, the FT had a big article on the automotive industry and supply chains and directly stated that all Alloy Wheels are imported into the UK for mainstream production, not specialist and that there would never ever be a 200m investment to make alloy wheels in the UK. Why the heck they do not use google to check or ask anybody in the industry what is happening is beyond me. Once it was a respected newspaper.
99% of OEM wheels are cast anyway (cheap junk) which would be relatively easy to make. Not that anyone is going to build a new wheel plant anyway.
Yep. Condemned to a 50% wage increase in five years, instead of a 100%? 200%? increase.
Alternatively, potential would-be domestic electricians don't decide to stay in education or pay for their own training, and stay/end up in lower-paid, lower-skill jobs (or even unemployment), and our training industry loses out on that hypothetical business.
People respond to incentives, everywhere. Though sometimes not as perfectly as a model might suggest.
There some evidence of the reverse effect, that an influx of low-skilled migrants can increase wages of natives, because it pushes locals into more skilled and specialised tasks and away from manual labour.
@Davidl - I had a look at the SMMT figures to see what they were based on. They were for investment in new models, not overall investment in the car industry.
Meanwhile companies like McLaren are investing millions in their new Yorkshire composites factory, onshoring production from Austria and generating hundreds of skilled jobs and apprentiships.
Yesterday, the FT had a big article on the automotive industry and supply chains and directly stated that all Alloy Wheels are imported into the UK for mainstream production, not specialist and that there would never ever be a 200m investment to make alloy wheels in the UK. Why the heck they do not use google to check or ask anybody in the industry what is happening is beyond me. Once it was a respected newspaper.
99% of OEM wheels are cast anyway (cheap junk) which would be relatively easy to make. Not that anyone is going to build a new wheel plant anyway.
Nobody is going to build a new wheel plant. I will not be nasty to you, but google "new alloy wheel plant Fort William." You maybe surprised.
@Davidl - I had a look at the SMMT figures to see what they were based on. They were for investment in new models, not overall investment in the car industry.
Meanwhile companies like McLaren are investing millions in their new Yorkshire composites factory, onshoring production from Austria and generating hundreds of skilled jobs and apprentiships.
Yesterday, the FT had a big article on the automotive industry and supply chains and directly stated that all Alloy Wheels are imported into the UK for mainstream production, not specialist and that there would never ever be a 200m investment to make alloy wheels in the UK. Why the heck they do not use google to check or ask anybody in the industry what is happening is beyond me. Once it was a respected newspaper.
99% of OEM wheels are cast anyway (cheap junk) which would be relatively easy to make. Not that anyone is going to build a new wheel plant anyway.
Nobody is going to build a new wheel plant. I will not be nasty to you, but google "new alloy wheel plant Fort William." You maybe surprised.
My confidence in Germany ultimately winning this WC is, I must confess, starting to be shaken. I honestly thought that they would be better than this today.
My confidence in Germany ultimately winning this WC is, I must confess, starting to be shaken. I honestly thought that they would be better than this today.
Dare I say it but so far the team that has shown the greatest gumption (for the first half only, that said) has been *ngl*nd.
My confidence in Germany ultimately winning this WC is, I must confess, starting to be shaken. I honestly thought that they would be better than this today.
Dare I say it but so far the team that has shown the greatest gumption (for the first half only, that said) has been *ngl*nd.
It's a pity that the game against Belgium is not going to be competitive. That would have given us a much better idea.
My confidence in Germany ultimately winning this WC is, I must confess, starting to be shaken. I honestly thought that they would be better than this today.
South Korea look pretty hopeless though - I still expect Germany to win this one comfortably.
Germany are going is to win this, but their defence still looks dodgy as hell. All the major teams seem to have wonky defences, so wouldn’t be surprised if some lesser nation gets a long way in this tournament.
Germany are going is to win this, but their defence still looks dodgy as hell. All the major teams seem to have wonky defences, so wouldn’t be surprised if some lesser nation gets a long way in this tournament.
Godin has done well for me in the fantasy football for Uruguay at the back.
Yep. Condemned to a 50% wage increase in five years, instead of a 100%? 200%? increase.
Alternatively, potential would-be domestic electricians don't decide to stay in education or pay for their own training, and stay/end up in lower-paid, lower-skill jobs (or even unemployment), and our training industry loses out on that hypothetical business.
People respond to incentives, everywhere. Though sometimes not as perfectly as a model might suggest.
There some evidence of the reverse effect, that an influx of low-skilled migrants can increase wages of natives, because it pushes locals into more skilled and specialised tasks and away from manual labour.
Interesting, though sparkies wouldn't be low-skilled migrants, surely?
Definitions vary - some define as absence of college-level education which presumably would include them. The theory in the US paper is that being a native speaker means you have a comparative advantage in communication type tasks which tend to be better remunerated.
So for instance, I suppose the theory would be that the presence of foreign electricians might enable the english-speaking electrician to be the lead on a team/move up to a more quality assurance/client management role, whilst leaving much of the actual work to a more junior foreigner...
Germany are going is to win this, but their defence still looks dodgy as hell. All the major teams seem to have wonky defences, so wouldn’t be surprised if some lesser nation gets a long way in this tournament.
Godin has done well for me in the fantasy football for Uruguay at the back.
Uruguay have been impressive, but in a weak group. If they beat Portugal then they could go a long way.
Uruguay, Belgium and ourselves. But Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and Panama are all weak sides. So perhaps Uruguay for demolishing the hosts (I think Russia are stronger than their global ranking)
You need to brush up on your logic. No deal is a bad deal ≠ every deal is a good deal.
Does he mean?
For everything, if it's not a deal then it's a bad deal
or
For everything, if it's a deal then it's not a bad deal
Ah yes I see what you mean... Apologies to @David_Evershed, I missed that one.
On the same lines, perhaps when Theresa said "no deal is better than a bad deal" she was acknowledging that there really is no such thing as a good Brexit deal - Brexit is a shitfest whatever we do?
Heard a New Yorker on radio sometime in the early hours explaining why despite Hillary getting 3 million votes more than Trump and her campaign being derailed by erroneous information from James Comey the US election was still a more democratic decision than Brexit. In his opinion for a decision to be democratic it had to be alterable in a fixed time frame which Brexit isn't.
Heard a New Yorker on radio sometime in the early hours explaining why despite Hillary getting 3 million votes more than Trump and her campaign being derailed by erroneous information from James Comey the US election was still a more democratic decision than Brexit. In his opinion for a decision to be democratic it had to be alterable in a fixed time frame which Brexit isn't.
Following the logic through, the original 70s referendum was undemocratic as was the Scottish Independence referendum, also implies a remain victory would have been undemocratic as well.
Heard a New Yorker on radio sometime in the early hours explaining why despite Hillary getting 3 million votes more than Trump and her campaign being derailed by erroneous information from James Comey the US election was still a more democratic decision than Brexit. In his opinion for a decision to be democratic it had to be alterable in a fixed time frame which Brexit isn't.
Following the logic through, the original 70s referendum was undemocratic as was the Scottish Independence referendum, also implies a remain victory would have been undemocratic as well.
I think suggesting that this has anything to do with logic is pretty generous.
You need to brush up on your logic. No deal is a bad deal ≠ every deal is a good deal.
Does he mean?
For everything, if it's not a deal then it's a bad deal
or
For everything, if it's a deal then it's not a bad deal
Ah yes I see what you mean... Apologies to @David_Evershed, I missed that one.
On the same lines, perhaps when Theresa said "no deal is better than a bad deal" she was acknowledging that there really is no such thing as a good Brexit deal - Brexit is a shitfest whatever we do?
Business has adapted its business model to the EU structures. Unless the EU was to allow us full access to the economic structures then they will need to amend that which will almost certainly have a cost/impact
But Brexit is not valued purely on economics - there were other factors to be considered as well
Heard a New Yorker on radio sometime in the early hours explaining why despite Hillary getting 3 million votes more than Trump and her campaign being derailed by erroneous information from James Comey the US election was still a more democratic decision than Brexit. In his opinion for a decision to be democratic it had to be alterable in a fixed time frame which Brexit isn't.
I’m not completely convinced by the logic - it seems to hinge on the fixed timeframe point which in practice normally means “no longer than x until we can vote again” like the 5-year maximum for a UK parliament pre-FTPA. In this case, Parliament remains sovereign and could legislate for another referendum tomorrow if the government made parliamentary time available.
There a stronger case for arguing on this basis that those who insist that no further challenge to the referendum result (eg a further referendum on terms including the possibility of altering the original outcome) may legitimately be held. Arguing that it would be unconstitutional or undemocratic to allow any future alteration to the original decision is pretty undemocratic.
You just feel in your bones that Germany are going to get a goal in the 94th minute, probably an own goal bouncing off the backside of a South Korean defender.
Comments
I thought PB Leavers' point of view was that everything is fantastic why the doom mongering and now you are saying everything is dreadful the sooner we leave the EU the better.
So every deal is a good deal?
S. Korea aren't nobodies and Germany have been patchy. 20-1 is great value.
People respond to incentives, everywhere. Though sometimes not as perfectly as a model might suggest.
Those opposed were worried about the language, and those in favour were worried about their rights - so let’s propose the rights but in a different language, in a way that’s acceptable to everyone.
I have followed TP in at
+95 Korea
+15.20 Draw
-7.80 Germany.
Why the heck they do not use google to check or ask anybody in the industry what is happening is beyond me. Once it was a respected newspaper.
Personally I am looking forward to pay increases for sturdy yeoman doctors as part of the benefit of Brexit. I may even be able to go part time on the same income, and spend more time abroad.
E.g.
http://giovanniperi.ucdavis.edu/uploads/5/6/8/2/56826033/peri_sparber_task_specialization_immigration_2010.pdf
http://www.nber.org/papers/w19315
oh, wait.
So for instance, I suppose the theory would be that the presence of foreign electricians might enable the english-speaking electrician to be the lead on a team/move up to a more quality assurance/client management role, whilst leaving much of the actual work to a more junior foreigner...
For everything, if it's not a deal then it's a bad deal
or
For everything, if it's a deal then it's not a bad deal
So perhaps Uruguay for demolishing the hosts (I think Russia are stronger than their global ranking)
On the same lines, perhaps when Theresa said "no deal is better than a bad deal" she was acknowledging that there really is no such thing as a good Brexit deal - Brexit is a shitfest whatever we do?
Be glad when things cool off a bit.
Edit, in fact if Sweden even draw they're out.
But Brexit is not valued purely on economics - there were other factors to be considered as well
There a stronger case for arguing on this basis that those who insist that no further challenge to the referendum result (eg a further referendum on terms including the possibility of altering the original outcome) may legitimately be held. Arguing that it would be unconstitutional or undemocratic to allow any future alteration to the original decision is pretty undemocratic.
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