Collective Cabinet responsibility broke down over the EU referendum. It has never really been restored.
I think that there is a lot of truth in that. The election was May's opportunity to fix it and get clear leadership again but she fluffed it.
The chaos in the party with dreadful decision making or no decision making lie at the feet of Theresa. I am devastated at the politics of the Swansea lagoon decision and am now moving towards the Hammonds and those seeking to limit Brexit damage.
Boris Johnson attack on Airbus and his cowardice on Heathrow calls for him to be sacked.
I am very disillusioned at present and hope that someone will step up to the plate quickly. Sajid Javid has my vote, the sooner the better in my opinion
The case for Hammond as next leader is that increasingly he looks like the only grown-up in the room. It is noticeable he did not hit the roof or the airwaves last week when the PM made a bus-sized hole in his budget. The case against is that no-one likes him.
You don't need much of a case for him when he's in a big office of state at 50-1 either. I've taken the £2 available at that price on Betfair.
The reports that the treasury are working against Government policy on Brexit is very concerning. Brexit is going to happen and we need all branches of Government and civil service working together for a chance of success. Just because the treasury is probably 99% remain it still has a key role in delivering.
So far, the poor chap’s being hung out to dry, but he’s come out of it, IMHO, with cedit. If I was at the top of the TMO or the LA I’d be a bit worried about my turn in the box. In fact, I might just do an Ernest Saunders.
The main concern is that since the change of fire regulations in the Mid 90s then fire officers play a key role in the enforcement of the Fire Risk Assessment regime, particularly with regards to identifying common risks and secondary inspection of high risk buildings. It was strange to here him saying that he couldn’t identify rainscreen cladding, as a large number of buildings in London will use it and there is a risk of a chimney effect I.e fire being drawn up the external cavity, for which numerous mitigation measures are available.
This is a problem (not dissimilar to finance) where technical solutions in building construction are beyond the understanding of those regulating the system on a general enforcement basis.
As others have said, there appears to be a significant training issue here, perhaps consequent on a lack of appreciation of the likely problems higher up the chain of command.
So should Grayling, Fox and Williamson. But we have a minority government so it won't happen. What we really don't need is cabinet ministers having inflammatory pot shots at each others.
Entirely OT (but slightly related to the derivatives tangent), does anybody know typically, for say a British bookmaker, how much money is typically staked by punters on outstanding bets at any one time (I think this is called "open interest" but I may be wrong), and how does this compare to the value of the business?
The context of this is me wondering about a decentralized prediction market system called Augur, which for obscure crypto-economic reasons has limitations on how much "open interest" you can have in the system at any one time.
Very little on an overnight basis: most betting is day-of-event with (for most sports) the majority of that now during the event itself.
However for your purposes it sounds like you might be concerned by the total "open interest" during a game. I reckon that (measured by stakes, not liability, which could be an additional problem for you if your model is peer-to-peer) would exceed 5% of the market cap of big firms during the World Cup Final, say.
Thanks, I'm not actually involved with Augur but the restriction is that Augur has its own token (called "REP" which is short for "reputation", although it's really nothing to do with reputation, which is used to vote (sort-of) for outcomes on who won which game etc. People then make their bets using other currencies (normal crypto-currencies like ETH, or "stablecoins" pegged to a normal currency, which is a whole nother ball of string). There's a risk that (simplifying it) somebody could make a bunch of bets on unlikely outcomes at long odds, then buy up a majority of the REP tokens and report a bogus result, thus collecting from their losing bets and making a profit.
To counter this they have a restriction that's supposed to stop you putting more money into the system than the total value of all the REP that have been issued (plus a safety margin). So I'm wondering how much of a restriction that is in practice.
Having people “vote” on which “outcomes” are “correct” reads like the legitimisation of fake news.
The correct outcome of, for example, a sports match is determined soley by the organisers of the match.
Collective Cabinet responsibility broke down over the EU referendum. It has never really been restored.
I think that there is a lot of truth in that. The election was May's opportunity to fix it and get clear leadership again but she fluffed it.
Indeed, ministers were much more responsible in the good old days of the Lib Dem-Conservative Coalition.
It was an excellent government. One of the best in my adult life. Handled a potentially disastrous situation brilliantly. Of course in those days Osborne acted as enforcer when people spoke out of turn. May has Lidington. Willie Whitelaw he isn't.
Collective Cabinet responsibility broke down over the EU referendum. It has never really been restored.
I think that there is a lot of truth in that. The election was May's opportunity to fix it and get clear leadership again but she fluffed it.
The chaos in the party with dreadful decision making or no decision making lie at the feet of Theresa. I am devastated at the politics of the Swansea lagoon decision and am now moving towards the Hammonds and those seeking to limit Brexit damage.
Boris Johnson attack on Airbus and his cowardice on Heathrow calls for him to be sacked.
I am very disillusioned at present and hope that someone will step up to the plate quickly. Sajid Javid has my vote, the sooner the better in my opinion
The case for Hammond as next leader is that increasingly he looks like the only grown-up in the room. It is noticeable he did not hit the roof or the airwaves last week when the PM made a bus-sized hole in his budget. The case against is that no-one likes him.
You don't need much of a case for him when he's in a big office of state at 50-1 either. I've taken the £2 available at that price on Betfair.
The reports that the treasury are working against Government policy on Brexit is very concerning. Brexit is going to happen and we need all branches of Government and civil service working together for a chance of success. Just because the treasury is probably 99% remain it still has a key role in delivering.
Very much so. If enough people in key organisations aren’t talking about making a success of Brexit, then it’s not going to be a success. Too many are still talking about how they can somehow not carry on with the policy that was decided by referendum two years ago.
So far, the poor chap’s being hung out to dry, but he’s come out of it, IMHO, with cedit. If I was at the top of the TMO or the LA I’d be a bit worried about my turn in the box. In fact, I might just do an Ernest Saunders.
The main concern is that since the change of fire regulations in the Mid 90s then fire officers play a key role in the enforcement of the Fire Risk Assessment regime, particularly with regards to identifying common risks and secondary inspection of high risk buildings. It was strange to here him saying that he couldn’t identify rainscreen cladding, as a large number of buildings in London will use it and there is a risk of a chimney effect I.e fire being drawn up the external cavity, for which numerous mitigation measures are available.
This is a problem (not dissimilar to finance) where technical solutions in building construction are beyond the understanding of those regulating the system on a general enforcement basis.
I suspect that it’s notr that the technical solututions are beyond the understanding of the regulkators, more that the regulatory authorities haven’t had the opportunity to engage appropriate experts.
where a radical right government of CSU and AfD is atm the most likely outcome.
WTF? Somebody polled national-CSU plus AfD and they got a grand total of 29% between them. It's not obvious where the other 21% would come from, as most German voters aren't in a hurry to give the whole nationalist right thing another go.
no german party has a majority nor is it possible for any of them to make one.
this time last year PBers were telling me I was nuts for saying Merkel was in the shit. Now it's the status quo. The mood in Germany is currently unpredictable and the CDU and SPD are losing ground, look at the trend, then consider that the AfD is consistently underreported in the polls.
Mr. Alistair, the dangers of political segregation and factionalism are not minor, we need only look at the Peloponnesian War and intra-city infighting to see how that can go.
Or, for that matter, the politics of Clodius and Milo.
Edited extra bit: misspelt Clodius.
When Joe Biden was turned away from a bakery in 2012 the owner was hailed as a champion of free speech and choice.
When the same is done to Sanders it is the end of civility and the collapse of civilisation.
Hardly the end of civilisation, but undoubtedly oafish behaviour in both cases.
Collective Cabinet responsibility broke down over the EU referendum. It has never really been restored.
I think that there is a lot of truth in that. The election was May's opportunity to fix it and get clear leadership again but she fluffed it.
The chaos in the party with dreadful decision making or no decision making lie at the feet of Theresa. I am devastated at the politics of the Swansea lagoon decision and am now moving towards the Hammonds and those seeking to limit Brexit damage.
Boris Johnson attack on Airbus and his cowardice on Heathrow calls for him to be sacked.
I am very disillusioned at present and hope that someone will step up to the plate quickly. Sajid Javid has my vote, the sooner the better in my opinion
The case for Hammond as next leader is that increasingly he looks like the only grown-up in the room. It is noticeable he did not hit the roof or the airwaves last week when the PM made a bus-sized hole in his budget. The case against is that no-one likes him.
You don't need much of a case for him when he's in a big office of state at 50-1 either. I've taken the £2 available at that price on Betfair.
The reports that the treasury are working against Government policy on Brexit is very concerning. Brexit is going to happen and we need all branches of Government and civil service working together for a chance of success. Just because the treasury is probably 99% remain it still has a key role in delivering.
Very much so. If enough people in key organisations aren’t talking about making a success of Brexit, then it’s not going to be a success. Too many are still talking about how they can somehow not carry on with the policy that was decided by referendum two years ago.
There simply has been no preparation to do anything other than continue Curreny Union and Single Market, but the fault lies squarely on the PM and Brexit team.
If someone has done no packing, it is hardto believe that they are leaving, even if they threaten to do so.
where a radical right government of CSU and AfD is atm the most likely outcome.
WTF? Somebody polled national-CSU plus AfD and they got a grand total of 29% between them. It's not obvious where the other 21% would come from, as most German voters aren't in a hurry to give the whole nationalist right thing another go.
no german party has a majority nor is it possible for any of them to make one.
this time last year PBers were telling me I was nuts for saying Merkel was in the shit. Now it's the status quo. The mood in Germany is currently unpredictable and the CDU and SPD are losing ground, look at the trend, then consider that the AfD is consistently underreported in the polls.
where a radical right government of CSU and AfD is atm the most likely outcome.
WTF? Somebody polled national-CSU plus AfD and they got a grand total of 29% between them. It's not obvious where the other 21% would come from, as most German voters aren't in a hurry to give the whole nationalist right thing another go.
no german party has a majority nor is it possible for any of them to make one.
this time last year PBers were telling me I was nuts for saying Merkel was in the shit. Now it's the status quo. The mood in Germany is currently unpredictable and the CDU and SPD are losing ground, look at the trend, then consider that the AfD is consistently underreported in the polls.
Collective Cabinet responsibility broke down over the EU referendum. It has never really been restored.
I think that there is a lot of truth in that. The election was May's opportunity to fix it and get clear leadership again but she fluffed it.
The chaos in the party with dreadful decision making or no decision making lie at the feet of Theresa. I am devastated at the politics of the Swansea lagoon decision and am now moving towards the Hammonds and those seeking to limit Brexit damage.
Boris Johnson attack on Airbus and his cowardice on Heathrow calls for him to be sacked.
I am very disillusioned at present and hope that someone will step up to the plate quickly. Sajid Javid has my vote, the sooner the better in my opinion
The case for Hammond as next leader is that increasingly he looks like the only grown-up in the room. It is noticeable he did not hit the roof or the airwaves last week when the PM made a bus-sized hole in his budget. The case against is that no-one likes him.
You don't need much of a case for him when he's in a big office of state at 50-1 either. I've taken the £2 available at that price on Betfair.
The reports that the treasury are working against Government policy on Brexit is very concerning. Brexit is going to happen and we need all branches of Government and civil service working together for a chance of success. Just because the treasury is probably 99% remain it still has a key role in delivering.
Very much so. If enough people in key organisations aren’t talking about making a success of Brexit, then it’s not going to be a success. Too many are still talking about how they can somehow not carry on with the policy that was decided by referendum two years ago.
There simply has been no preparation to do anything other than continue Curreny Union and Single Market, but the fault lies squarely on the PM and Brexit team.
If someone has done no packing, it is hardto believe that they are leaving, even if they threaten to do so.
Correct. I was at a city event yesterday and we were told by someone who follows the detail of the trade negotiations that the EU now thinks the UK will be forced to accept SM/CU for the indefinite future. There is is a real risk of a cliff edge and the EU 27 are better prepared for that than the UK, but in the end they think the UK will pull back from the brink.
Heard alarming news last night from somebody who was recenty at a bash with David Cameron - and the ex-PM was sporting a shade of Basildon Brown fake tan.....
Having people “vote” on which “outcomes” are “correct” reads like the legitimisation of fake news.
The correct outcome of, for example, a sports match is determined soley by the organisers of the match.
I don't think that's exactly true - if everybody watched the game and saw Team A score 5 goals and Team B score zero then the organizer took a bribe and reported that B had won it, I think everybody would be right and the organizer would be wrong.
It remains to be seen how good these mechanisms will be at settling results, though. (Augur isn't exactly using voting, that's an approximation of what it's doing.)
where a radical right government of CSU and AfD is atm the most likely outcome.
WTF? Somebody polled national-CSU plus AfD and they got a grand total of 29% between them. It's not obvious where the other 21% would come from, as most German voters aren't in a hurry to give the whole nationalist right thing another go.
no german party has a majority nor is it possible for any of them to make one.
this time last year PBers were telling me I was nuts for saying Merkel was in the shit. Now it's the status quo. The mood in Germany is currently unpredictable and the CDU and SPD are losing ground, look at the trend, then consider that the AfD is consistently underreported in the polls.
$200 trillion versus "By comparison the yearly “wage” of all Americans, measured as Gross Domestic Product, is $21 trillion, while the market cap of all stocks in the world, including Chinese and European stocks, is under $100 trillion."
Mr. Alistair, the dangers of political segregation and factionalism are not minor, we need only look at the Peloponnesian War and intra-city infighting to see how that can go.
Or, for that matter, the politics of Clodius and Milo.
Edited extra bit: misspelt Clodius.
When Joe Biden was turned away from a bakery in 2012 the owner was hailed as a champion of free speech and choice.
When the same is done to Sanders it is the end of civility and the collapse of civilisation.
Hardly the end of civilisation, but undoubtedly oafish behaviour in both cases.
I think denying people commerce or employment based on account of their political beliefs, almost always so those providing it can provide a signal of their own political beliefs to others, is an ugly development in our democracy.
where a radical right government of CSU and AfD is atm the most likely outcome.
WTF? Somebody polled national-CSU plus AfD and they got a grand total of 29% between them. It's not obvious where the other 21% would come from, as most German voters aren't in a hurry to give the whole nationalist right thing another go.
no german party has a majority nor is it possible for any of them to make one.
this time last year PBers were telling me I was nuts for saying Merkel was in the shit. Now it's the status quo. The mood in Germany is currently unpredictable and the CDU and SPD are losing ground, look at the trend, then consider that the AfD is consistently underreported in the polls.
Mr. Alistair, the dangers of political segregation and factionalism are not minor, we need only look at the Peloponnesian War and intra-city infighting to see how that can go.
Or, for that matter, the politics of Clodius and Milo.
Edited extra bit: misspelt Clodius.
When Joe Biden was turned away from a bakery in 2012 the owner was hailed as a champion of free speech and choice.
When the same is done to Sanders it is the end of civility and the collapse of civilisation.
Hardly the end of civilisation, but undoubtedly oafish behaviour in both cases.
I think denying people commerce or employment based on account of their political beliefs, almost always so those providing it can provide a signal of their own political beliefs to others, is an ugly development in our democracy.
To be fair, it is America's democracy, not ours.
Though Tim Martin has kept me out of Wetherspoons recently:
where a radical right government of CSU and AfD is atm the most likely outcome.
WTF? Somebody polled national-CSU plus AfD and they got a grand total of 29% between them. It's not obvious where the other 21% would come from, as most German voters aren't in a hurry to give the whole nationalist right thing another go.
no german party has a majority nor is it possible for any of them to make one.
this time last year PBers were telling me I was nuts for saying Merkel was in the shit. Now it's the status quo. The mood in Germany is currently unpredictable and the CDU and SPD are losing ground, look at the trend, then consider that the AfD is consistently underreported in the polls.
alternatively Brussels sponsored academic earns his shilling
Merkel's fall from grace has been dramatic. Last year's election result left her even more of a lame duck than Theresa May.
Her dominance of the CDU has always been a bit of a mystery to me, as they've never really done well in elections under her leadership.
Chancellor for more than 12 years !
That's good news for her. But, the CDU have not done well under her leadership.
They've done well enough, the striking part about German politics is how terribly the SPD have done under various leaders. Steinmeier, Steinbruck and Schulz make Brown, Miliband and Corbyn's records all look superb.
Was it really 11 years ago today that Tone did his last PMQs? I remember it all - the standing ovation, the motorcade to Sedgefield, Alan Milburn: 'Gordon will have his day, but today is Tony's day'.
Nick Hurd is Minister for Policing and also an MP from the Hillingdon area like Boris and also abstained on the Heathrow expansion vote so it was not just Boris who refused to vote with the government on this
Nick Hurd is Minister for Policing and also an MP from the Hillingdon area like Boris and also abstained on the Heathrow expansion vote so it was not just Boris who refused to vote with the government on this
If Jezza is asking about Heathrow (I'm not watching) then May should mention how glad she was to see over a hundred of his colleagues supporting the government.
Collective Cabinet responsibility broke down over the EU referendum. It has never really been restored.
I think that there is a lot of truth in that. The election was May's opportunity to fix it and get clear leadership again but she fluffed it.
The chaos in the party with dreadful decision making or no decision making lie at the feet of Theresa. I am devastated at the politics of the Swansea lagoon decision and am now moving towards the Hammonds and those seeking to limit Brexit damage.
Boris Johnson attack on Airbus and his cowardice on Heathrow calls for him to be sacked.
I am very disillusioned at present and hope that someone will step up to the plate quickly. Sajid Javid has my vote, the sooner the better in my opinion
The case for Hammond as next leader is that increasingly he looks like the only grown-up in the room. It is noticeable he did not hit the roof or the airwaves last week when the PM made a bus-sized hole in his budget. The case against is that no-one likes him.
You don't need much of a case for him when he's in a big office of state at 50-1 either. I've taken the £2 available at that price on Betfair.
The reports that the treasury are working against Government policy on Brexit is very concerning. Brexit is going to happen and we need all branches of Government and civil service working together for a chance of success. Just because the treasury is probably 99% remain it still has a key role in delivering.
Very much so. If enough people in key organisations aren’t talking wo years ago.
There simply has been no preparation to do anything other than continue Curreny Union and Single Market, but the fault lies squarely on the PM and Brexit team.
If someone has done no packing, it is hardto believe that they are leaving, even if they threaten to do so.
Correct. I was at a city event yesterday and we were told by someone who follows the detail of the trade negotiations that the EU now thinks the UK will be forced to accept SM/CU for the indefinite future. There is is a real risk of a cliff edge and the EU 27 are better prepared for that than the UK, but in the end they think the UK will pull back from the brink.
Parliament has voted by a 200 vote majority to leave the single market, Corbyn is committed to that as much as May so if the EU thinks that it is in for a shock, it also would face UK tariffs as well as tariffs from Trump's USA with no FTA deal by the end of the transition period
Nick Hurd is Minister for Policing and also an MP from the Hillingdon area like Boris and also abstained on the Heathrow expansion vote so it was not just Boris who refused to vote with the government on this
If Jezza is asking about Heathrow (I'm not watching) then May should mention how glad she was to see over a hundred of his colleagues supporting the government.
Jezza asked about Airbus -- Tezza answered about Heathrow.
Collective Cabinet responsibility broke down over the EU referendum. It has never really been restored.
I think that there is a lot of truth in that. The election was May's opportunity to fix it and get clear leadership again but she fluffed it.
The chaos in the party with dreadful decision making or no decision making lie at the feet of Theresa. I am devastated at the politics of the Swansea lagoon decision and am now moving towards the Hammonds and those seeking to limit Brexit damage.
Boris Johnson attack on Airbus and his cowardice on Heathrow calls for him to be sacked.
I am very disillusioned at present and hope that someone will step up to the plate quickly. Sajid Javid has my vote, the sooner the better in my opinion
The case for Hammond as next leader is that increasingly he looks like the only grown-up in the room. It is noticeable he did not hit the roof or the airwaves last week when the PM made a bus-sized hole in his budget. The case against is that no-one likes him.
You don't need much of a case for him when he's in a big office of state at 50-1 either. I've taken the £2 available at that price on Betfair.
The reports that the treasury are
There simply has been no preparation to do anything other than continue Curreny Union and Single Market, but the fault lies squarely on the PM and Brexit team.
If someone has done no packing, it is hardto believe that they are leaving, even if they threaten to do so.
Correct. I was at a city event yesterday and we were told by someone who follows the detail of the trade negotiations that the EU now thinks the UK will be forced to accept SM/CU for the indefinite future. There is is a real risk of a cliff edge and the EU 27 are better prepared for that than the UK, but in the end they think the UK will pull back from the brink.
Parliament has voted by a 200 vote majority to leave the single market, Corbyn is committed to that as much as May so if the EU thinks that it is in for a shock, it also would face UK tariffs as well as tariffs from Trump's USA with no FTA deal by the end of the transition period
If that were a viable option, then there would have to be some sign of preparation. We are not headed into a Battle of Britain, this looks much more like the fall of Singapore. (Worse than Suez, as at Suez the military plan was sound, just the geopolitics completely inept.)
Collective Cabinet responsibility broke down over the EU referendum. It has never really been restored.
I think that there is a lot of truth in that. The election was May's opportunity to fix it and get clear leadership again but she fluffed it.
The chaos party with dreadful decision making or no decision making lie at the feet of Theresa. I am devastated at the politics of the Swansea lagoon decision and am now moving towards the Hammonds and those seeking to limit Brexit damage.
Boris Johnson attack on Airbus and his cowardice on Heathrow calls for him to be sacked.
I am very disillusioned at present and hope that someone will step up to the plate quickly. Sajid Javid has my vote, the sooner the better in my opinion
The case for Hammond as next leader is that increasingly he looks like the only grown-up in the room. The case against is that no-one likes him.
You don't need much of a case for him when he's in a big office of state at 50-1 either. I've taken the £2 available at that price on Betfair.
The reports that the treasury are working against Government policy on Brexit is very concerning. Brexit is going to happen and we need all branches of Government and civil service working together for a chance of success. Just because the treasury is probably 99% remain it still has a key role in delivering.
Very much so. If enough people in key organisations aren’t talking wo years ago.
There simply has been no preparation to do anything other than continue Curreny Union and Single Market, but the fault lies squarely on the PM and Brexit team.
If someone has done no packing, it is hardto believe that they are leaving, even if they threaten to do so.
Correct. I was at a city event yesterday and we were told by someone who follows the detail of the trade negotiations that the EU now thinks the UK will be forced to accept SM/CU for the indefinite future. There is is a real risk of a cliff edge and the EU 27 are better prepared for that than the UK, but in the end they think the UK will pull back from the brink.
Parliament has voted by a 200 vote majority to leave the single market, Corbyn is committed to that as much as May so if the EU thinks that it is in for a shock, it also would face UK tariffs as well as tariffs from Trump's USA with no FTA deal by the end of the transition period
Parliament has voted by a 200 vote majority to leave THE Single Market.
Has DD gone native? Perhaps spending all this time with EU negotiators has opened his eyes to what a splendidly efficient, innovative and philanthropic organization it really is. Come over to the Remainer side DD! The water's lovely.
DD was Pro-EU, he was Europe Minister, remember in the 2005 Tory leadership contest he portrayed himself as the Pro-EU candidate.
But since he was smashed by Dave in the leadership contest he did everything based on opposing Dave.
Davis is a hypocrite. Portrays himself as a great civil libertarian but is opposed to same sex marriage and supports creating a giant DNA database.
Dave, of course, presented himself as the great Eurosceptic in the leadership contest and ultimately fucked the country due to his hubris and vanity.
Parliament has voted by a 200 vote majority to leave the single market, Corbyn is committed to that as much as May so if the EU thinks that it is in for a shock, it also would face UK tariffs as well as tariffs from Trump's USA with no FTA deal by the end of the transition period
Parliament has voted by a 200 vote majority to leave THE Single Market.
where a radical right government of CSU and AfD is atm the most likely outcome.
WTF? Somebody polled national-CSU plus AfD and they got a grand total of 29% between them. It's not obvious where the other 21% would come from, as most German voters aren't in a hurry to give the whole nationalist right thing another go.
no german party has a majority nor is it possible for any of them to make one.
this time last year PBers were telling me I was nuts for saying Merkel was in the shit. Now it's the status quo. The mood in Germany is currently unpredictable and the CDU and SPD are losing ground, look at the trend, then consider that the AfD is consistently underreported in the polls.
If Ireland rejoined the UK (and/or left the EU) it would solve the Brexit border issue.
Where would you corral the flying pigs?
And the unicorns?
On a narrow basis there is a point here.
If we get hard Brexit, neither the Irish nor the British will be that keen to enforce a border as they are supposed to. The British, I think would go for unilaterally dropping import tarriffs and minimising at border product compliance checks to keep third party trade running - an option I'm tempted to coin as MadMaxFac.
WTO members will pressure the EU to bring the Irish to heel - MFN nations like Britain must be treated equally - this is one of the drivers that says there has to be a border and we can't just whistle and ignore it (in the long term at any rate).
An amount of stalling is possible but the EU at that point will ultimately have 3 choices: get back to the table with UK (I'm not saying for a moment that the EU will be the more desperate party here), adopt their own MadMaxFac trade border, or lever the Irish out of the EU customs union and potentially towards a British Isles CU (the Irish are substantially a larger EU exclave than those that already sit in the Swiss CU). I've speculated on EU MadMaxFac, but both the other options seem far more likely ways for the pachinko ball to drop.
But, to return to the thread, I can see the Irish joining the UK in some respects, and particularly on narrow Customs Union terms.
Collective Cabinet responsibility broke down over the EU referendum. It has never really been restored.
I think that there is a lot of truth in that. The election was May's opportunity to fix it and get clear leadership again but she fluffed it.
The chaos in the party with dreadful decision making or no decision making lie at the feet of Theresa. I am devastated at the politics of the Swansea lagoon decision and am now moving towards the Hammonds and those seeking to limit Brexit damage.
Boris Johnson attack on Airbus and his cowardice on Heathrow calls for him to be sacked.
I am very disillusioned at present and hope that someone will step up to the plate quickly. Sajid Javid has my vote, the sooner the better in my opinion
The case for Hammond as next leader is that increasingly no-one likes him.
You don't need much of a case for him when he's in a big office of state at 50-1 either. I've taken the £2 available at that price on Betfair.
The reports that the treasury are
There simply has been no preparation to do anything other than continue Curreny Union and Single Market, but the fault lies squarely on the PM and Brexit team.
If someone has done no packing, it is hardto believe that they are leaving, even if they threaten to do so.
Correct. I was at a city event yesterday and we om the brink.
Parliament has voted by a 200 vote majority to leave the single market, Corbyn is committed to that as much as May so if the EU thinks that it is in for a shock, it also would face UK tariffs as well as tariffs from Trump's USA with no FTA deal by the end of the transition period
If that were a viable option, then there would have to be some sign of preparation. We are not headed into a Battle of Britain, this looks much more like the fall of Singapore. (Worse than Suez, as at Suez the military plan was sound, just the geopolitics completely inept.)
Wrong. We would just go to WTO terms whether prepared for or not.
Of course even after the fall of Singapore we eventually defeated the Japanese with US help and we would now have Trump backing us up and also imposing tariffs on EU goods possibly with a FTA for UK goods post Brexit if the EU refuse a FTA with the UK. At Suez it was the lack of US support by contrast which cost us even though we had France on board
where a radical right government of CSU and AfD is atm the most likely outcome.
WTF? Somebody polled national-CSU plus AfD and they got a grand total of 29% between them. It's not obvious where the other 21% would come from, as most German voters aren't in a hurry to give the whole nationalist right thing another go.
no german party has a majority nor is it possible for any of them to make one.
this time last year PBers were telling me I was nuts for saying Merkel was in the shit. Now it's the status quo. The mood in Germany is currently unpredictable and the CDU and SPD are losing ground, look at the trend, then consider that the AfD is consistently underreported in the polls.
Rather boringly, it's possible that the top 16 ranked teams could be the same 16 who go through to the next round of the World Cup. On the other hand the quality of the matches ought to be good from then onwards.
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
Nick Hurd is Minister for Policing and also an MP from the Hillingdon area like Boris and also abstained on the Heathrow expansion vote so it was not just Boris who refused to vote with the government on this
If Jezza is asking about Heathrow (I'm not watching) then May should mention how glad she was to see over a hundred of his colleagues supporting the government.
While also welcoming Corbyn's support for leaving the EEA
where a radical right government of CSU and AfD is atm the most likely outcome.
WTF? Somebody polled national-CSU plus AfD and they got a grand total of 29% between them. It's not obvious where the other 21% would come from, as most German voters aren't in a hurry to give the whole nationalist right thing another go.
no german party has a majority nor is it possible for any of them to make one.
this time last year PBers were telling me I was nuts for saying Merkel was in the shit. Now it's the status quo. The mood in Germany is currently unpredictable and the CDU and SPD are losing ground, look at the trend, then consider that the AfD is consistently underreported in the polls.
Having people “vote” on which “outcomes” are “correct” reads like the legitimisation of fake news.
The correct outcome of, for example, a sports match is determined soley by the organisers of the match.
I don't think that's exactly true - if everybody watched the game and saw Team A score 5 goals and Team B score zero then the organizer took a bribe and reported that B had won it, I think everybody would be right and the organizer would be wrong.
It remains to be seen how good these mechanisms will be at settling results, though. (Augur isn't exactly using voting, that's an approximation of what it's doing.)
Interesting exercise. Maybe there’s an arb to be had between this organisation and a traditional bookie, whereby with appropriate bribery one can get paid out on both outcomes
More seriously, it looks like an exciting project, interested to watch it’s development.
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
Brexit is chaotic and is the only act in Town. The next few months upto March 19 will determine the political climate
where a radical right government of CSU and AfD is atm the most likely outcome.
WTF? Somebody polled national-CSU plus AfD and they got a grand total of 29% between them. It's not obvious where the other 21% would come from, as most German voters aren't in a hurry to give the whole nationalist right thing another go.
no german party has a majority nor is it possible for any of them to make one.
this time last year PBers were telling me I was nuts for saying Merkel was in the shit. Now it's the status quo. The mood in Germany is currently unpredictable and the CDU and SPD are losing ground, look at the trend, then consider that the AfD is consistently underreported in the polls.
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
Brexit is chaotic and is the only act in Town. The next few months upto March 19 will determine the political climate
Can you imagine a situation when Brexit would not be chaotic, especially with the "we must punish Britain" attitude of the EU?
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
TBH it doesn’t FEEL booming. Are you being seduced by the good weather?
where a radical right government of CSU and AfD is atm the most likely outcome.
WTF? Somebody polled national-CSU plus AfD and they got a grand total of 29% between them. It's not obvious where the other 21% would come from, as most German voters aren't in a hurry to give the whole nationalist right thing another go.
no german party has a majority nor is it possible for any of them to make one.
this time last year PBers were telling me I was nuts for saying Merkel was in the shit. Now it's the status quo. The mood in Germany is currently unpredictable and the CDU and SPD are losing ground, look at the trend, then consider that the AfD is consistently underreported in the polls.
A massively distant second. CSU support looks very solid.
But, on those figures without a majority (v unusual in Bavaria). And, crucially, without one with their preferred partner, the FDP.
I don't think the CSU would go into formal coalition with the AfD but there could be a minority government which the AfD agrees to support in return for certain concessions.
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
TBH it doesn’t FEEL booming. Are you being seduced by the good weather?
Agree. “Plodding along adequately” - which given the scenarios we’ve been promised is not bad - “booming” ends in tears sooner or later
Mr. Alistair, the dangers of political segregation and factionalism are not minor, we need only look at the Peloponnesian War and intra-city infighting to see how that can go.
Or, for that matter, the politics of Clodius and Milo.
Edited extra bit: misspelt Clodius.
When Joe Biden was turned away from a bakery in 2012 the owner was hailed as a champion of free speech and choice.
When the same is done to Sanders it is the end of civility and the collapse of civilisation.
Hardly the end of civilisation, but undoubtedly oafish behaviour in both cases.
I think denying people commerce or employment based on account of their political beliefs, almost always so those providing it can provide a signal of their own political beliefs to others, is an ugly development in our democracy.
Pre-1933 Germany had that kind of culture, where all the political parties had their own sports and cultural organisations, and their own paramilitary organisations, and people were encouraged to trade only with their own faction.
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
Brexit is chaotic and is the only act in Town. The next few months upto March 19 will determine the political climate
Can you imagine a situation when Brexit would not be chaotic, especially with the "we must punish Britain" attitude of the EU?
I would agree and how TM and the government chart the course through this maize will be the defining moment in politics
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
TBH it doesn’t FEEL booming. Are you being seduced by the good weather?
Really? Down here in Hampshire most businesses cannot fill vacancies and there are vacancy notices everywhere. Working in the Mechancial and Electrical contracting industry we are over run with work and are turning it down. Our tunrover has gone from £4 mill to £12mill in the last 5 years. The going hourly rate for a spark has gone from £12 to £18 in that time. In London its at least £25 per hour. Thats what I call a booming economy
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
The economy is still basking in the reflection of Osborne's golden legacy, while Brexit remains just a shimmering and unrealized prospect on the horizon. The golden legacy won't last for ever, and soon we'll be faced with our Brexit day of reckoning. (My God I hope I'm wrong!) but things could turn cold very quickly.
where a radical right government of CSU and AfD is atm the most likely outcome.
WTF? Somebody polled national-CSU plus AfD and they got a grand total of 29% between them. It's not obvious where the other 21% would come from, as most German voters aren't in a hurry to give the whole nationalist right thing another go.
no german party has a majority nor is it possible for any of them to make one.
this time last year PBers were telling me I was nuts for saying Merkel was in the shit. Now it's the status quo. The mood in Germany is currently unpredictable and the CDU and SPD are losing ground, look at the trend, then consider that the AfD is consistently underreported in the polls.
A massively distant second. CSU support looks very solid.
But, on those figures without a majority (v unusual in Bavaria). And, crucially, without one with their preferred partner, the FDP.
I don't think the CSU would go into formal coalition with the AfD but there could be a minority government which the AfD agrees to support in return for certain concessions.
The FW (free voters, i.e., Independents) could be key. Does anyone know much about them?
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
TBH it doesn’t FEEL booming. Are you being seduced by the good weather?
Really? Down here in Hampshire most businesses cannot fill vacancies and there are vacancy notices everywhere. Working in the Mechancial and Electrical contracting industry we are over run with work and are turning it down. Our tunrover has gone from £4 mill to £12mill in the last 5 years. The going hourly rate for a spark has gone from £12 to £18 in that time. In London its at least £25 per hour. Thats what I call a booming economy
Excellent! But performance might not be evenly distributed...
Mr. Alistair, the dangers of political segregation and factionalism are not minor, we need only look at the Peloponnesian War and intra-city infighting to see how that can go.
Or, for that matter, the politics of Clodius and Milo.
Edited extra bit: misspelt Clodius.
When Joe Biden was turned away from a bakery in 2012 the owner was hailed as a champion of free speech and choice.
When the same is done to Sanders it is the end of civility and the collapse of civilisation.
The baker turned down a photo op with Biden, he didn't refuse to serve him a cake when he was going about personal business. So the situation is err different to Sanders, she wasn't at the restaurant for a photo-op, just there for something to eat.
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
TBH it doesn’t FEEL booming. Are you being seduced by the good weather?
Really? Down here in Hampshire most businesses cannot fill vacancies and there are vacancy notices everywhere. Working in the Mechancial and Electrical contracting industry we are over run with work and are turning it down. Our tunrover has gone from £4 mill to £12mill in the last 5 years. The going hourly rate for a spark has gone from £12 to £18 in that time. In London its at least £25 per hour. Thats what I call a booming economy
What happens when all your Polish employees head back to Poland?
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
Brexit is chaotic and is the only act in Town. The next few months upto March 19 will determine the political climate
Can you imagine a situation when Brexit would not be chaotic, especially with the "we must punish Britain" attitude of the EU?
I would agree and how TM and the government chart the course through this maize will be the defining moment in politics
Except Corbyn agrees almost verbatim with May's position on Brexit
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
Brexit is chaotic and is the only act in Town. The next few months upto March 19 will determine the political climate
Can you imagine a situation when Brexit would not be chaotic, especially with the "we must punish Britain" attitude of the EU?
I would agree and how TM and the government chart the course through this maize will be the defining moment in politics
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
Brexit is chaotic and is the only act in Town. The next few months upto March 19 will determine the political climate
Can you imagine a situation when Brexit would not be chaotic, especially with the "we must punish Britain" attitude of the EU?
I would agree and how TM and the government chart the course through this maize will be the defining moment in politics
Hopefully May's experience with fields of wheat will translate to maize.
However only five day's ago the US ambassador to the UK was telling us that we should buck our ideas up and stop being so "defeatist" about Brexit so maybe the US embassy itself has got problems to sort out?
Remember that the American ambassador is not a career diplomat but a donor or friend of the president. It is the Deputy Chief who runs the embassy. It is a bit different from how we or most countries run things. It is therefore less surprising if the ambassador was perhaps a tad undiplomatic or entirely off-piste.
Woody will also be getting clear views from j&j among others
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
Brexit is chaotic and is the only act in Town. The next few months upto March 19 will determine the political climate
Can you imagine a situation when Brexit would not be chaotic, especially with the "we must punish Britain" attitude of the EU?
I would agree and how TM and the government chart the course through this maize will be the defining moment in politics
amazing how you finance guys keep tanking the world economy
We’re not tanking anything.
We’re taking back control of our profits and moving them to Germany.
are you really that much of a eejit?
if £29 trn go tits up, there wont be a Germany.
It shows just how dependent the EU is on the City.
It also means there will be a deal.
it also shows how little TSE understands risk. :-)
move your profits to a country whose government could collapse at any moment, which arguably is on the brink of a recession, is about to enter a full on trade war with the USA and where a radical right government of CSU and AfD ERG is atm the most likely outcome.
Mr. Alistair, the dangers of political segregation and factionalism are not minor, we need only look at the Peloponnesian War and intra-city infighting to see how that can go.
Or, for that matter, the politics of Clodius and Milo.
Edited extra bit: misspelt Clodius.
When Joe Biden was turned away from a bakery in 2012 the owner was hailed as a champion of free speech and choice.
When the same is done to Sanders it is the end of civility and the collapse of civilisation.
Hardly the end of civilisation, but undoubtedly oafish behaviour in both cases.
I think denying people commerce or employment based on account of their political beliefs, almost always so those providing it can provide a signal of their own political beliefs to others, is an ugly development in our democracy.
To be fair, it is America's democracy, not ours.
Though Tim Martin has kept me out of Wetherspoons recently....
I’d no idea they were quite so selective in their policing of clientele...
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
TBH it doesn’t FEEL booming. Are you being seduced by the good weather?
Really? Down here in Hampshire most businesses cannot fill vacancies and there are vacancy notices everywhere. Working in the Mechancial and Electrical contracting industry we are over run with work and are turning it down. Our tunrover has gone from £4 mill to £12mill in the last 5 years. The going hourly rate for a spark has gone from £12 to £18 in that time. In London its at least £25 per hour. Thats what I call a booming economy
What happens when all your Polish employees head back to Poland?
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
Brexit is chaotic and is the only act in Town. The next few months upto March 19 will determine the political climate
Can you imagine a situation when Brexit would not be chaotic, especially with the "we must punish Britain" attitude of the EU?
I would agree and how TM and the government chart the course through this maize will be the defining moment in politics
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
The economy is still basking in the reflection of Osborne's golden legacy, while Brexit remains just a shimmering and unrealized prospect on the horizon. The golden legacy won't last for ever, and soon we'll be faced with our Brexit day of reckoning. (My God I hope I'm wrong!) but things could turn cold very quickly.
But Brexit IS Osborne's economic legacy. I fear it will be far from golden......
JRM point of order explained Corbyn misled the house on his investment and sought an apology. Corbyn refused and second point of order raised the possibility Corbyn had lied and again Corbyn was not asked to apologise
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
TBH it doesn’t FEEL booming. Are you being seduced by the good weather?
Really? Down here in Hampshire most businesses cannot fill vacancies and there are vacancy notices everywhere. Working in the Mechancial and Electrical contracting industry we are over run with work and are turning it down. Our tunrover has gone from £4 mill to £12mill in the last 5 years. The going hourly rate for a spark has gone from £12 to £18 in that time. In London its at least £25 per hour. Thats what I call a booming economy
What happens when all your Polish employees head back to Poland?
I can't help thinking some Remain posters here are actually hoping for economic collapse in the event of a Leave vote. I think they'll be disappointed.
Talking Britain down - they have no confidence in our entrepreneurial spirit - its very sad.
At the moment the economy is flying, interest rates are very low, employment is at record levels, inflation is very low, wages are rising. Do you think Brexit will have any impact on these?
Like Black Wednesday did ? Yes - for the positive.
Well I will be amazed if 5 years after Brexit that the economy is doing as well yet alone better than it is now. It cracks me up the criticism of Cameron and Osborne on here. Just look at the brilliant position they have guided the country too. Who on here that actually predicted that the economy would be in such fantastic shape as it is now back in 2010 when Cameron first became PM. They have performed mircales. Yet criticism is all they receive. Im sure France would love to have our economy. These are halcyon days which Brexit may ruin.
If that's an attempt at implied critisicm of @Currystar, then it is nothing to do with him, @Currystar backed remain. As he says they won't be heading back anyway.
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
TBH it doesn’t FEEL booming. Are you being seduced by the good weather?
Really? Down here in Hampshire most businesses cannot fill vacancies and there are vacancy notices everywhere. Working in the Mechancial and Electrical contracting industry we are over run with work and are turning it down. Our tunrover has gone from £4 mill to £12mill in the last 5 years. The going hourly rate for a spark has gone from £12 to £18 in that time. In London its at least £25 per hour. Thats what I call a booming economy
Excellent! But performance might not be evenly distributed...
4 weeks ago I went to Liverpool for the weekend, I had to stay 6 miles outside of Liverpool as all City Centre hotels were completely booked. I would say that was the sign of a booming economy there as well
Corbyn is just shouty and a million miles away from being a prospective PM.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
I am still at a loss to understand why people think this is a disatarous Government. As I keep saying their is full employment and Britain is booming. How does this Government compare to say Thatchers Government in 1981?
TBH it doesn’t FEEL booming. Are you being seduced by the good weather?
Really? Down here in Hampshire most businesses cannot fill vacancies and there are vacancy notices everywhere. Working in the Mechancial and Electrical contracting industry we are over run with work and are turning it down. Our tunrover has gone from £4 mill to £12mill in the last 5 years. The going hourly rate for a spark has gone from £12 to £18 in that time. In London its at least £25 per hour. Thats what I call a booming economy
What happens when all your Polish employees head back to Poland?
They wont be heading back
But I don't understand. You have Polish employees and yet there has been a 50% wage increase over the past five years??
SOMETHING DOES NOT COMPUTE WE VOTED BREXIT TO PUT AN END TO THIS SORT OF THING.
Comments
The correct outcome of, for example, a sports match is determined soley by the organisers of the match.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44616603
If someone has done no packing, it is hardto believe that they are leaving, even if they threaten to do so.
Her dominance of the CDU has always been a bit of a mystery to me, as they've never really done well in elections under her leadership.
SeanT is going to lose his shit.
Military coup at number 10?
Williamson takeover?
Tells PM to shut up and go away?
https://www.trustnodes.com/2018/06/22/just-four-banks-account-90-200-trillion-derivatives-says-occ-report
He said he could not remember having any training in evacuating high rise buildings.
We may yet find that he was given some training.
Regardless, fire officers should use their own initiative dependent on the circumstances - not hide behind a rule book.
It remains to be seen how good these mechanisms will be at settling results, though. (Augur isn't exactly using voting, that's an approximation of what it's doing.)
Camden was always a bit grimy and vulgar for Waitrose surely. Just put up a Spar there and the natives will be content.
Eek......
And the unicorns?
Though Tim Martin has kept me out of Wetherspoons recently:
https://twitter.com/AngryRemainer/status/1011513974783868928?s=19
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44627990
Who ever thought homosexuals should have the right to a civil partnership but not heterosexuals?
Steinmeier, Steinbruck and Schulz make Brown, Miliband and Corbyn's records all look superb.
Buffet has always warned about derivatives.
It is the failure of a large bank counter party which blows up all Value-at-risk regulatory rules.
A decent labour leader would be devastating for this government
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bavarian_state_election,_2018
If we get hard Brexit, neither the Irish nor the British will be that keen to enforce a border as they are supposed to. The British, I think would go for unilaterally dropping import tarriffs and minimising at border product compliance checks to keep third party trade running - an option I'm tempted to coin as MadMaxFac.
WTO members will pressure the EU to bring the Irish to heel - MFN nations like Britain must be treated equally - this is one of the drivers that says there has to be a border and we can't just whistle and ignore it (in the long term at any rate).
An amount of stalling is possible but the EU at that point will ultimately have 3 choices: get back to the table with UK (I'm not saying for a moment that the EU will be the more desperate party here), adopt their own MadMaxFac trade border, or lever the Irish out of the EU customs union and potentially towards a British Isles CU (the Irish are substantially a larger EU exclave than those that already sit in the Swiss CU). I've speculated on EU MadMaxFac, but both the other options seem far more likely ways for the pachinko ball to drop.
But, to return to the thread, I can see the Irish joining the UK in some respects, and particularly on narrow Customs Union terms.
https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html
https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2018/06/25/news/unionist-elected-to-seanad-urges-north-s-politicians-to-lead-by-example-1365532/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44577679
More seriously, it looks like an exciting project, interested to watch it’s development.
https://twitter.com/BrexitCentral/status/1011938544028405760
In his dreams.....
As he says they won't be heading back anyway.
SOMETHING DOES NOT COMPUTE WE VOTED BREXIT TO PUT AN END TO THIS SORT OF THING.